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Nationals Designate Dominic Smith For Assignment

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The Nationals announced Tuesday that they’ve designated first baseman Dominic Smith and right-hander Cory Abbott for assignment. Washington has also granted righty Andres Machado his release so that he can pursue an opportunity in Japan. That slate of moves clears space on the 40-man roster for lefties DJ Herz and Mitchell Parker as well as righties Cole Henry and Zach Brzykcy. That quartet of pitchers is now protected from next month’s Rule 5 Draft.

Smith, 28, was a first-round pick, longtime top prospect and (more briefly) a quality run producer for the division-rival Mets prior to being non-tendered in the 2022-23 offseason. From 2019-20, Smith treated the Mets to a stellar .299/.366/.571 batting line in 396 trips to the plate. He swatted 21 homers and connected on 31 doubles in that time before stumbling to a .643 OPS over his next two seasons and being cut loose. Smith’s lone year in D.C. brought about a rebound to some extent, as he turned in a .254/.326/.366 batting line with a dozen homers, but that wasn’t enough for the Nats to retain him and offer him a raise in arbitration.

Also 28 years old, Abbott has spent the past two seasons with the Nats. The former Cubs farmhand has logged 87 1/3 innings of 5.87 ERA ball in the Majors with Washington, fanning 21.3% of his opponents against an 11% walk rate. Abbott posted strong minor league numbers up through the Double-A level and once ranked as one of the Cubs’ more promising pitching prospects, but he’s now struggled in both Triple-A (5.46 ERA in parts of three seasons) and the big leagues. He’s out of minor league options as well, which could make it tough for another club to claim him.

Both Abbott and Smith will be traded or placed on waivers within the next week. Both can become free agents if they’re unclaimed.

As for Machado, he’ll start the next chapter of his career overseas — likely on a seven-figure guarantee that wouldn’t have been available to him in North American ball. He’s out of minor league options and not yet arbitration-eligible, so he was likely to lose his 40-man roster spot and spend next year trying to work his way back to the big leagues.

From 2021-22, Machado was a quietly solid member of the Washington bullpen, tallying 91 appearances and 95 innings of 3.41 ERA ball. He benefited from a .264 average on balls in play and had success in spite of pedestrian strikeout and walk rates of 18.3% and 9.9%, respectively.

Some degree of regression appeared in store, but perhaps not to the extent he saw in 2023 when he was torched for a 5.22 ERA in 50 innings despite marked improvements in his K-BB profile (20.8% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate). While Machado improved in terms of missing bats and limiting free passes (to say nothing of a 1 mph uptick in fastball velocity, to 96.7 mph on average), he also become staggeringly homer-prone; in 50 innings he served up 12 long balls — 2.34 homers per nine frames (and a home run on 24% of the fly-balls he yielded). He’ll take that plus velocity and improved command overseas, though it’s not yet clear precisely which team he’ll join.

All four of the prospects added to the Nationals’ 40-man roster today rank among their top 30 prospects at MLB.com. Herz is 22 years of age, while the others are all 24. Herz was the Cubs’ eighth-round pick in 2019 and came to the Nats by way of this summer’s Jeimer Candelario trade. He punched out nearly a third of his opponents while working as a starter in Double-A but also issued walks at almost a 14% clip. Injuries have plagued the career of Henry, a 2020 second-round pick with a potentially plus slider and plus-plus changeup. He pitched just 33 1/3 innings this past season. Similar to Herz, Parker is a lefty who missed bats in droves in the upper minors but did so with shaky command. Brzykcy is a bullpen prospect with a power fastball who missed the 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery.

Big Hype Prospects: Eder, Herz, Rincones, Montgomery, Schwartz

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After another week of action, a spate of strikeouts has cost Jakob Marsee his spot atop the hitter leaderboards. James Triantos has slipped in above him. Top pitcher status is harder to judge. Braden Nett, Davis Daniel, Ricky Tiedemann, and Jackson Jobe all have a case.
Let’s see who else merits a look.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jake Eder, 25, SP, CWS
(A/AA) 56.2 IP, 11.1 K/9, 5.7 BB/9, 6.99 ERA

A southpaw pitching prospect who was once as blue chip as they come, Eder hasn’t recovered well from Tommy John surgery. While his elbow is healthy, he’s lost velocity, movement, and command since his prospect peak. The White Sox dealt Jake Burger for Eder at the trade deadline and likely wish they could ctrl-z that decision. Following the swap, Eder coughed up an 11.42 ERA in five starts for the Sox Double-A affiliate.

On a positive note, Eder has a 3.24 ERA in 8.1 AFL innings – good for ninth-best in the league. He’s coughed up a pair of home runs to go with eight walks and 10 strikeouts. The book isn’t closed on Eder, but he needs to take an active role in writing the next chapter. The current chapter is titled TINSTAAPP.

DJ Herz, 22, SP/RP, WSH
(AA) 94.1 IP, 12.7 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 4.01 ERA

Another southpaw traded at the deadline, Herz is widely seen as a future reliever due to a below-average fastball and breaking ball. His command is also poor. Where he stands out is his changeup. It’s a carrying pitch that should yield a Major League future. Herz continues to work as a starter in the AFL where he’s posted 18 strikeouts in 11 innings. Alas, his command woes (six walks) continue to limit his ability to pitch deep into outings. We await to see if his stuff plays up out of the bullpen.

Gabriel Rincones Jr., 22, OF, PHI
(A/A+) 533 PA, 15 HR, 32 SB, .248/.351/.427

A third-rounder in the 2022 draft, Rincones Jr. is best known for high-caliber exit velocities. He’s expected to wind up at first base due to suspect corner outfield defense and poor speed. Despite a lack of wheels, Rincones has shown aptitude on the bases – a trait that can sometimes portend a gamer’s mentality. His bat should carry him to the Majors without any major adjustments. At the very highest levels, he might prove too susceptible to breaking stuff. With players of this profile, breaking ball recognition is usually the difference between a big leaguer and a Quad-A guy. Rincones is among the top 10 AFL hitters with a .327/.462/.577 triple-slash.

Benny Montgomery, 21, OF, COL
(A+) 497 PA, 10 HR, 18 SB, .251/.336/.370

A former eighth-overall pick, Montgomery has seen his prospect status rapidly erode since draft day. Speed remains his best trait, though he also demonstrates above-average power. His contact is held back by funky mechanics. Most organizations – the Rockies among them – aren’t adept at developing players with a non-standard approach. They’re often left to sink or swim on their own. Encouragingly, Montgomery has cut down on his swinging strike rate at every level. He needs to continue that growth while doing something about the extreme 62.6 percent ground ball rate he posted this season. He also needs to improve his outfield defense where his double-plus speed helps him to recover from poor jumps and routes. He’s slashing .373/.468/.510 in the AFL, albeit with 17 strikeouts in 60 plate appearances.

JT Schwartz, 23, 1B, NYM
(AA) 277 PA, 4 HR, 4 SB, .302/.383/.437

Schwartz doesn’t have much of a shot with the Mets. He’s likely in the AFL to showcase him in front of other teams. He has the look of a future big leaguer – the sort who helps rebuilding teams trudge through another season. While Schwartz has the physical size to hit for power, his current approach is built around batting average and OBP. He’d draw more attention in the pre-Moneyball era. In 45 plate appearances, he has six doubles and two home runs along with a 1.011 OPS.

Three More

Liam Hicks, TEX (24): Hicks has low-key paced the league on the hitting side including a six-hit day. Despite the heady results, he’s not particularly impactful with the bat. His catching is of the third-string variety – he’s struggled to control the running game throughout his entire career. Other aspects of his defense draw critiques. Without an obvious position, Hicks looks like a ‘tweener whose plus discipline and contact rate could hide his shortcomings.

Kyle Manzardo, CLE (23): Manzardo, who we’ve already discussed ad nauseam in past episodes, leads the league with five home runs and 11 extra base hits. The power adjustment he showed upon joining the Guardians remains in evidence.

Oliver Dunn, PHI (26): A Rule 5-eligible second baseman, Dunn is making a case for consideration. He popped 21 home runs with 16 steals this summer while showing plus plate discipline. He’s strikeout-prone, but the power breakout renders that more forgivable. In 46 AFL plate appearances, he’s swiped nine bases to go with a 1.076 OPS, three doubles, three triples, and a dinger.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Cubs Acquire Jeimer Candelario

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Jeimer Candelario is headed back to Chicago. The Cubs announced they acquired the switch-hitting third baseman from the Nationals for prospects DJ Herz and Kevin Made. The Cubs had an open 40-man roster spot after outrighting Edwin Ríos yesterday.

Candelario was one of the best rental hitters on the market after a strong four months in Washington. It was exactly what the Nats had envisioned when signing him to a one-year, $5MM free agent contract last winter.

Originally signed by the Cubs as an amateur more than a decade ago, Candelario made his big league debut with Chicago. His first stint on the North Side was short-lived. He played in five games in 2016 and 11 more the following season before being dealt to the Tigers in the Justin Wilson trade, as the Cubs pushed in young talent for veterans while trying to defend their World Series title.

Candelario got his first extended run down the stretch in Detroit and was an everyday player by the following season. He was a below-average regular for the first two years but took a significant step forward in 2020. Candelario carried that over a full schedule the following season, when he led the majors in doubles. Between those two seasons, he hit .278/.356/.458 in more than 800 trips to the plate.

As was the case for essentially everyone in the Detroit lineup, things fell apart in 2022. Candelario slumped to a .217/.272/.361 line over 124 games. The Tigers non-tendered him in lieu of paying around $7MM for his final season of arbitration eligibility. While it’s a move Detroit probably wishes they had back in hindsight, the subsequent $5MM free agent deal indicates the market didn’t value Candelario as a $7MM player just a few months ago.

The 29-year-old has certainly elevated his stock since that point. He has more or less regained his 2020-21 form. Candelario hit .258/.342/.481 through 419 plate appearances with Washington. He connected on 16 homers and 30 doubles, ranking fifth in the majors in the latter category. He’s walking at a roughly average 8.6% clip against a decent 21% strikeout rate.

Candelario has been better from the left side of the plate this season, a departure from his early-career work. He’d typically fared better against southpaws but now has similar platoon splits overall. Since the start of 2020, he’s a .253/.334/.438 hitter against right-handed pitching and owns a .256/.330/.437 line versus lefties. That well-rounded offensive production adds to a Chicago lineup built mostly on strong depth as opposed to impact talent aside from Cody Bellinger.

While his profile has mostly been built on offense, Candelario has also gotten solid reviews from public metrics for his third base defense this year. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him two runs above par in 834 1/3 innings of hot corner work, while Statcast has estimated him as four runs above average. Candelario had gotten mixed to below-average marks throughout his time in Detroit but should at least be a solid gloveman in Chicago.

He has some experience at first base as well but hasn’t played anywhere aside from third since 2020. The Cubs could plug him in at either spot but will presumably use him more often at the hot corner. Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Christopher Morel and Miles Mastrobuoni have been part of a revolving door at the position. Morel has raked but isn’t a good defender. Wisdom hits for power but doesn’t consistently put the ball in play; Madrigal has the opposite profile. Candelario is the most balanced of the group.

It’s a modest financial addition for Chicago. Candelario is due around $1.67MM in salary through year’s end. He’d tack on another $200K in incentives if he reaches 600 plate appearances, though that’s also fairly modest. As calculated by Roster Resource, the Cubs have a luxury tax number a bit north of $228MM.

That’s a little less than $5MM shy of the $233MM base threshold. It had seemed the Cubs were trending towards staying below that mark and selling away veteran pieces, but a recent eight-game win streak completely changed the calculus. The addition of one of the top rental hitters available affirms their status as buyers, which had already become clear when they took Bellinger off the trade market yesterday. They also added some middle relief depth tonight in acquiring José Cuas from Kansas City and figure to look for more impactful bullpen upgrades in the next 24 hours.

Candelario’s time in Washington proved fruitful for both parties. He revitalized his stock and now looks positioned for a much more lucrative free agent trip. He’ll be one of the top hitters available in a below-average class for bats. The Nats never seemed likely to issue him a qualifying offer, but the trade officially takes that off the table. Players dealt midseason are ineligible for the QO, so Candelario will hit the market unencumbered by draft compensation.

The club adds a pair of players to a continually improving farm system. Made, 20, is a right-handed hitting shortstop from the Dominican Republic. He didn’t appear on Chicago’s midseason top 30 prospects at Baseball America but ranked 19th on the organizational list at FanGraphs. The outlet credited the 5’9″ infielder with roughly average tools and suggested he has an outside shot to be an everyday shortstop. He’s hitting .240/.328/.355 over 300 plate appearances with High-A South Bend. He hit just three homers there but walked at a solid 10% clip against a lower than average 18% strikeout rate.

Herz, 22, has gotten 14 starts with Double-A Tennessee. The former eighth-round pick owns a 3.97 ERA across 59 innings, striking out an excellent 30.4% of opponents but walking 14% of batters faced. He was 19th among Cubs’ prospects at Baseball America and 22nd at FanGraphs. He sits in the low 90s with his fastball and has an excellent changeup, but the obvious control woes lead most evaluators to point to a bullpen future. There’s little harm for the Nats in letting him continue to start in the minors. Herz and Made will have to go on the 40-man roster this offseason to stay out of the Rule 5 draft.

It’s the first of likely multiple deadline deals for the rebuilding Nats. Candelario was their most obvious trade chip. Middle reliever Kyle Finnegan could be on the move as well. Washinton’s top realistic trade piece would be outfielder Lane Thomas, though it remains to be seen how eager they are to deal him.

Michael Cerami and David Kaplan of Bleacher Nation reported the Cubs and Nationals were in discussions about Candelario. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported Candelario was being traded to Chicago. Cerami was first with Herz and Made going back to Washington.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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