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2018 Vesting Options Update

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We previously checked in on the vesting option scenarios playing out around the game. In the interim, though, we learned of a previously unreported clause and also gathered quite a bit more information about which options will and will not vest.

Here’s where things stand with just two weeks to go:

Already Vested

  • Greg Holland: It didn’t take long for the Rockies closer to finish thirty games, which triggered a clause that turned his $10MM mutual option into a $15MM player option. All indications are that Holland will spurn that payday (and the qualifying offer that will surely follow in close succession) to test the open market, but it affords him injury protection the rest of the way. Holland has already earned $9MM in bonus money. With six more games finished over the final two weeks of the season, he’d tack on another $2MM.
  • Gio Gonzalez: After topping 180 frames in his most recent start, Gonzalez is now under contract for 2018 at $12MM. While he has hit a bit of a wall of late, that still looks like quite an appealing price for a pitcher that has worked to a 2.68 ERA on the year.

Open Questions

  • Ian Kinsler: It was learned recently that Kinsler’s 2018 option actually has a somewhat convoluted vesting provision. He’s guaranteed to earn $11MM upon reaching 600 plate appearances. And if he takes home another Gold Glove award, he’ll earn another $1MM in 2018. The option is going to be picked up regardless, but the 35-year-old can make things official if he strides to the plate 49 more times between now and the end of the season. He’ll likely get there if he plays more or less every day over the next two weeks.

Will Not Vest

  • Ricky Nolasco: It’s still theoretically possible that Nolasco can reach the 202 1/3 innings he needs to transform a $13MM club option into a player option, but with over forty to go that’s just not happening as a practical matter. Instead, he’ll likely receive a $1MM buyout on the option.
  • Matt Cain: Cain is even more certain to receive a buyout; he’ll get a cool $7.5MM when the Giants say no to the alternative of paying $14MM more to keep him for another season. The veteran has compiled 119 1/3 innings of 5.66 ERA ball to this point, far shy of the volume or quality needed for that option to come into play. (It would have vested at 200 frames.)
  • Hisashi Iwakuma: Though he needed only 125 innings for his $15MM vesting provision to be triggered, Iwakuma has managed just 31 to date and is still on the DL. Instead, the M’s will likely pay him a $1MM buyout rather than picking up his option at $10MM.
  • Andre Ethier: Though he made it back from the DL, it was far too late for Ethier to lay claim to a $17.5MM salary for 2017. Since it’s impossible for him to make it to 550 plate appearances, he’ll instead receive a $2.5MM buyout when the Dodgers all but certainly decline the club option.
  • Matt Garza: Garza will be controllable via a $5MM club option. He was not able to reach 110 total starts from 2014-17, so his option did not vest at $13MM. But he also did not miss 130 or more days of action on the DL this year, so he avoided a provision that would’ve left the Brewers with a $1MM option for 2018.
  • J.J. Hardy: Also now back from the DL, Hardy returned far too late to reach the 600 plate appearances he’d have needed for a $14MM club option to become guaranteed. Instead, he’s destined to receive a $2MM buyout from the O’s this fall.

AL Injury Notes: Sanchez, Iwakuma, Dyson, Bush, Kela

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The Blue Jays have announced that righty Aaron Sanchez will miss the rest of the season. Sanchez has dealt with blister issues throughout the year (with four separate DL stints) and hasn’t returned since being placed on the disabled list in late July. After breaking through in the Jays’ rotation in 2016, the 25-year-old will end his 2017 season with just 36 innings pitched, a 4.25 ERA, 6.0 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9. Here are more quick notes on AL injuries.

  • Hisashi Iwakuma and Jarrod Dyson are running out of time to make it back to the Mariners’ active roster before the end of the season, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune writes. Iwakuma, who’s missed four months with shoulder issues, is still hopeful he’ll return this season, but manager Scott Servais says Iwakuma has “still got a little work to do” after throwing 30 pitches in a simulated game Saturday. Dutton adds that the Mariners are likely to pay a $1M buyout rather than exercise Iwakuma’s $10MM option next season. Dyson, who’s out with a strained groin, still felt pain upon participating in drills on Friday. He’s a free agent after the season.
  • Matt Bush is back from the DL, but another Rangers reliever, Keone Kela, isn’t yet ready to return, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan writes. Bush, who posted a 3.04 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and 10 saves over 47 1/3 innings before suffering a concussion and a sprained knee in an on-field collision last month, is likely to pitch high-leverage innings, according to manager Jeff Banister. Alex Claudio will likely continue to close, however. Kela has been out with a shoulder injury since early August. He is set to throw a bullpen session Monday. Kela has posted a 2.36 ERA, 4.2 BB/9 and an outstanding 12.1 K/9 over 34 1/3 innings with the Rangers this season.

Hisashi Iwakuma Receives Shoulder Injections After Setback

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Mariners righty Hisashi Iwakuma is not progressing as had been hoped, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. Following another setback, he has received cortisone and platelet-rich plasma injections in his troublesome right shoulder.

The hope, of course, is that this course of treatment will spur healing and finally allow Iwakuma to maintain steady progress. But the expectation had been that the veteran starter would long since have advanced back to the majors.

Seattle’s rotation is in better shape now than it has been at times, with Felix Hernandez and James Paxton returning and rookie Andrew Moore showing well in his first two MLB starts. Ariel Miranda and Sam Gaviglio are producing solid results, though their peripherals portend some regression.

Still, Iwakuma’s halting recovery is an ongoing concern for a club that continues to hover around .500 — along with much of the rest of the American League. Indeed, Divish notes that there’s at least a strand of thinking in the organization of the belief that Iwakuma won’t contribute again this season.

It’s still anyone’s guess just how the M’s will approach the deadline with the division out of reach but a Wild Card berth still fully plausible. Seattle will have an opportunity to see how Iwakuma progresses over the next three weeks or so, and the on-field results will also impact the calculus. If the team looks into additions, though, the rotation arguably represents the primary area of need — particularly with southpaw Drew Smyly now ruled out for the year following Tommy John surgery.

2018 Vesting Options Update

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We already took a preliminary look at the vesting option scenarios playing out around the game, but we’ve now gained quite a bit of clarity over the last six weeks. Generally, vesting options are club options that can become guaranteed based on the player’s health and/or performance. Typically, achieving contractually defined thresholds (such as for plate appearances or games finished) takes the decision out of the team’s hand, with some clauses also requiring certain health standards to be triggered.

Here’s where things stand at present:

Already Vested

  • Greg Holland: That was fast! Holland has already racked up thirty games finished, meaning that what was a $10MM mutual option for 2018 has been converted into a $15MM player option. With a league-leading 25 saves in the bank, along with 29 1/3 innings of 1.53 ERA pitching, it seems unlikely that Holland will take that cash rather than testing the open market — though he could also have to turn down a qualifying offer and hit free agency weighed down a bit by draft compensation. (Notably, too, Holland is cracking into some hefty contract incentives. He is on track to earn most or all of the $11MM in available bonus money.)

On Track To Vest

  • Gio Gonzalez: While Gonzalez is pitching well enough to make it a foregone conclusion that the Nationals would pick up his 2018 option at $12MM, that step won’t be necessary if he ends the regular season with 180 innings on his ledger. Working deep into games has been an issue for Gonzalez in recent years, but he has already topped 100 frames through just 16 starts thus far in 2017. Barring an injury, this one looks quite likely to vest.

Unlikely To Vest

  • Ricky Nolasco: The 34-year-old faces an uphill battle, but he’s at least keeping it interesting. Nolasco can turn a $13MM club option ($1MM buyout) into a player option if he gives the Halos 202 1/3 frames this year. That’s a big number, but Nolasco has managed to log 90 2/3 innings through 16 outings, leaving 111 2/3 left to achieve. Even if he takes the ball another 16 times the rest of the way, he’d need to go seven innings per start — a pace typically achievable only by a few top aces around the game. (Currently, Max Scherzer and Chris Sale top the leaderboard with 113 2/3 frames.)
  • Matt Cain: The Giants are sure to pay Cain a $7.5MM buyout rather than picking up his $21.5MM option for the 2018 campaign. But the veteran righty could take that decision out of the team’s hands if he’s able to reach 200 innings this year and stay off of the DL at season’s end. Cain has made all 16 of his starts so far, but he has accumulated only 84 innings. While it’s a theoretical possibility, then, it’s all but certain that this option won’t vest — and the Giants have every incentive to see that it doesn’t.
  • Hisashi Iwakuma: When the season started, it seemed reasonably likely that Iwakuma would trigger his second vesting season — as he did last year with the first. After compiling 199 innings in 2016, he needed to accumulate only 125 more (and avoid an unspecified injury) to lock up a $15MM payday. But Iwakuma is currently parked on the DL with just 31 frames in the bank; even if he is able to work deep in most of his remaining starts, he almost certainly won’t have enough to accumulate the 94 additional innings he needs. If he doesn’t get there, then Seattle will decide between a $10MM salary and a $1MM buyout.

Will Not Vest

  • Andre Ethier: Ethier’s $17.5MM club option vests upon 550 plate appearances in 2017. He has been shelved for the entire first half of the season, so he’ll have to take home a $2.5MM buyout as a consolation prize.
  • Matt Garza: This one is complicated, but here’s the bottom line: Garza cannot possible make enough starts to reach 110 in total from 2014-17 (he’s currently at 82), so his option cannot vest at $13MM. At the same time, it’s no longer possible for him to miss 130 or more days of action to the DL this year, so the club won’t get a shot at a $1MM option for his 2018 rights. Instead, the deal reverts to a club option at $5MM. See? It’s simple.
  • J.J. Hardy: The extension that Hardy signed with the O’s a few years back includes a $14MM club option (or a $2MM buyout), but that would vest if Hardy ended the 2017 campaign with 600 plate appearances on his stat sheet. That always seemed a stretch, but with his recent DL placement it’s no longer even possible.

Mariners Move Yovani Gallardo To Bullpen

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The Mariners selected the contract of top organizational prospect Andrew Moore earlier today, and they’ve informed reporters prior to tonight’s game that Yovani Gallardo will move to the bullpen to accommodate Moore’s arrival (Twitter link via the Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish). MLB.com’s Greg Johns was the first to report that Moore would take over Gallardo’s spot in the Seattle rotation.

“He’s been the definition of steady since entering the system,” GM Jerry Dipoto said of Moore, a 2015 second-rounder (link via Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune). “…He’s earned an opportunity to pitch here.”

Seattle is expecting Felix Hernandez to come off the disabled list on Thursday, according to Johns, and he’ll join Moore, James Paxton, Ariel Miranda and Sam Gaviglio in the rotation for the time being. Hisashi Iwakuma is also nearing a return and could push either Gaviglio or Miranda out of a starting role, though he’s still slated to make one more rehab start in Triple-A, Johns writes. Johns also tweets an update on left-hander Drew Smyly, who is set to face live hitters on Saturday and has been progressing well through bullpen sessions.

[Related: Updated Seattle Mariners depth chart]

Acquired in a one-for-one swap that sent Seth Smith to the Orioles this offseason, Gallardo was passable for his first eight turns this season (4.53 ERA in 45 2/3 innings), but he’s been shelled for 30 runs in his past 30 innings. He’s made modest improvements in his K/9 rate (6.8), BB/9 rate (3.8) and ground-ball rate (46.3 percent) in 2017, though ERA alternatives such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg him in the upper-4.00s.

While the results from Gallardo certainly aren’t what the Mariners hoped when rolling the dice on him as a rebound candidate, the offseason trade amounted to little more than a means of jettisoning Smith in favor of more defensively gifted outfield options such as Jarrod Dyson, Mitch Haniger and Ben Gamel. The two had reasonably comparable salaries, so the Mariners effectively took a one-year, $4MM gamble on Gallardo. That hasn’t panned out to date, while Smith has been a productive bat in Baltimore (.272/.350/.463).

As for Moore, he’ll jump into the rotation and hope to lock down a long-term spot among the Mariners’ starting five. He’s the organization’s No. 4 prospect, per MLB.com, and he entered the year rated seventh among Seattle farmhands by ESPN’s Keith Law, fifth by Baseball Prospectus, fifth by Fangraphs and sixth by Baseball America. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com note that Moore has excellent spin rate on his 89-92 mph fastball, allowing him to generate swings and misses up in the zone despite the lack of velocity. While the scouting reports on him agree that he doesn’t come with a huge ceiling, there’s a consensus that he has a strong chance of becoming a reliable fourth or fifth starter that fills up the strike zone.

Through a combined 82 2/3 innings between Double-A Arkansas and Triple-A Tacoma this season, Moore has posted an excellent 2.72 ERA with 8.4 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9.

Injury Updates: Chapman, Felix, Iwakuma, Gonzalez, Shields

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Here’s the latest on some notable names joining and departing the disabled list…

  • The Yankees have announced that closer Aroldis Chapman has been activated from the 10-day DL, with catcher Kyle Higashioka going down to Triple-A in a corresponding move.  Chapman spent over a month on the DL due to inflammation his left rotator cuff,
  • Felix Hernandez will start for the Mariners on Friday, while Hisashi Iwakuma will start on either Saturday or Sunday, manager Scott Servais told MLB.com’s Greg Johns and other reporters.  Hernandez hit the DL in late April due to right shoulder bursitis, and a projected 3-4 week absence for the Mariners ace has ended up stretching to almost two full months.  Iwakuma will return within the original 4-6 week timeframe projected when he was placed on the DL due to shoulder inflammation.  While no determination has yet been made about who will be leaving Seattle’s rotation, the most obvious candidates might be Christian Bergman (the original probable starter for the M’s on Friday) and Sam Gaviglio (who starts on Saturday).
  • The White Sox have placed right-hander Miguel Gonzalez on the 10-day DL (retroactive to June 15) due to inflammation in his throwing shoulder’s A/C joint.  After a solid first season in Chicago in 2016, Gonzalez has struggled this year, posting a 5.49 ERA, 5.1 K/9 and 1.73 K/BB rate over 78 2/3 innings.  In a corresponding move, James Shields was activated from the DL to start today’s game against the Blue Jays after being out of action for almost two months due to a lat strain.

Injury Notes: Ottavino, Pedroia, Hughes, Perkins, Semien, M’s, Ross

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The Rockies placed setup man Adam Ottavino on the 10-day DL with shoulder inflammation, as Nick Groke of the Denver Post reports. That’s frightening news at first glance, but it’s not believed to be a significant issue. Per Ottavino, he could’ve continued throwing but the decision was made to “put the fire out now.” As Groke notes, Ottavino has labored through his last several outings, though he has continued to generate excellent results all year long. Carlos Estevez will come back up to take the open bullpen slot.

  • While there was initially a fair bit of concern for veteran Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia, the prognosis now seems to be good. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says that he thinks Pedroia may be back after the minimum ten-day absence, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal reports on Twitter. “It’s really the best-case scenario in many ways,” said Dombrowski.
  • While Phil Hughes of the Twins is experiencing some symptoms akin to those that led to thoracic outlet surgery previously, it seems that’s not the root cause this time around. As MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger provides on Twitter, a medical assessment shows that Hughes may be dealing with a build-up of scar tissue in his neck and shoulder area. He’ll undergo “a rigorous soft tissue and mobility rehab regimen in advance of beginning his throwing.”
  • Meanwhile, Twins lefty Glen Perkins is still traveling a long road back to the majors, but there are new signs of hope. As Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports, Perkins was able to face hitters for the first time in over a year. “I didn’t know if I was going to be able to do what I did today,” said the veteran reliever. “Coming out of it I love where I’m at physically and mentally.” Perkins still needs to work in his slider and build up arm strength, of course, but he may not be far from a rehab assignment.
  • Though he’s still a long ways off from a return, Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien has taken an important step in his return from wrist surgery, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Semien was able to throw for the first time since going under the knife, though he has still yet to take full cuts with the bat. Skipper Bob Melvin called the news “significant,” though he also noted that the organization is “not close on putting together a timetable” for Semien’s return to the majors.
  • The Mariners continue to see signs of progress from right-handers Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports (Twitter links). Hernandez is ready for a sim game, while Iwakuma may not be far behind him.
  • While Tyson Ross is nearly ready for the Rangers, the club is still waiting to activate him. As MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan tweets, Ross is expected to make one more rehab outing before re-ascending to the majors.

Quick Hits: Greinke, Hazen, D’Backs, Felix, Iwakuma, Royals

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The trade that brought Zack Greinke to the Brewers from the Royals in December 2010 is still making an impact on multiple franchises over six years later, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes.  The players involved in that deal (Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt for Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi) have since been involved in several other blockbuster trades and transactions, such as the Royals sending Odorizzi to Tampa Bay as part of the package that sent James Shields and Wade Davis to K.C., or the Brewers parting ways with Greinke in 2012 and getting Jean Segura back from the Angels.  It’s quite a remarkable list of trades linked to that original deal, with the Royals of course standing out as the big winner thanks to their 2015 World Series title.

Here’s some more from around the baseball world as we head into the new week…

  • While some reports have suggested that the Diamondbacks would be open to trading Greinke, A.J. Pollock or Patrick Corbin even if the team is in contention, GM Mike Hazen told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that such a major trade wouldn’t make sense for a team in the playoff race.  “If the opportunity has passed on trading one guy or two guys as opposed to the opportunity to win?  To me, I’m going to take that tradeoff.  That’s a tradeoff that I think we have to take,” Hazen said.  None of the aforementioned three players are free agents this winter, Hazen noted, so the club doesn’t have any specific need to trade any of them immediately.  Even after today’s loss to the Brewers, the D’Backs are still 31-21 on the year and they hold a 4.5 game lead on the second NL wild card slot.
  • Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma are tentatively scheduled to return to the Mariners rotation in mid-to-late June, MLB.com’s Greg Johns writes, though both pitchers are still in the very early stages of their recovery process.  Hernandez (righth shoulder bursitis) and Iwakuma (right shoulder inflammation) each threw their first bullpen sessions today, and still have multiple more bullpens and then minor league rehab outings to undertake before leaving the disabled list.
  • Teams interested in the Royals’ trade chips are being told that K.C. is still trying to contend, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required).  At 21-28, the Royals have the worst record in the American League but they sit just 4.5 games out of a wild card spot and 6.5 games behind the AL Central-leading Twins.  Given the parity within the league and the Royals’ natural resistance to break up their longstanding core until they have to, it could still be some weeks before we know whether the Royals are clear buyers or sellers at the deadline.
  • Several contenders have been boosted by players capable of playing multiple positions, and the next step could be players who can provide bench depth both on the field and on the mound, Peter Gammons writes in his latest GammonsDaily.com entry.  The Dodgers are toying with the idea of using Brett Eibner as both an outfielder and reliever, and teams could consider grooming their own two-way players if Eibner succeeds in this role.

AL Injury Notes: Hanley, Paxton/M’s, Graveman/Hahn, Griffin

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The Red Sox won’t count on Hanley Ramirez being capable of playing first base again this year, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters including Tim Britton of the Providence Journal. Shoulder troubles have persisted for the veteran, relegating him to DH duties. “The potential negatives of him going out and [playing first], at this point don’t outweigh the positives that we get from having his bat in as our DH,” Dombrowski explained. “We just have to maneuver around it.” For the time being, at least, rookie Sam Travis is up to provide a right-handed-hitting option at first along side lefty Mitch Moreland.

Here’s more on some injury situations around the American League:

  • There’s some welcome news on the injury front for the Mariners, who watched lefty James Paxton through four innings and 55 pitches tonight in a rehab outing, as MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports (Twitter links). The expectation is that he’ll take the ball for Seattle on Wednesday. Fellow rehabbing starters Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma are slated for bullpen sessions in the coming days, too, leading skipper Scott Servais to say that the club is finally “starting to see light at the end of the tunnel.”
  • Two Athletics pitchers, meanwhile, are dealing with injury issues. Right-hander Kendall Graveman is suffering from some shoulder issues, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets, though the seriousness isn’t yet clear. And while the MRI results were promising for fellow righty Jesse Hahn, MLB.com’s Jane Lee reports on Twitter, his triceps problem is likely to require a DL stint. Jharel Cotton will come up to take a rotation spot this weekend.
  • Finally, the Rangers will be awaiting the results of further evaluation on righty A.J. Griffin, but he’s heading to the DL, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter). Per a club announcement, he left his start tonight with a left intercostal strain. Even if Griffin ends up missing some time, though, it may not work out too badly for Texas. As Grant notes (Twitter links), the team could fill the opening with Tyson Ross — if he’s ready. Alternatively, Yohander Mendez could be an option. For the time being, though, veteran Dillon Gee will head onto the active roster.

Hisashi Iwakuma To Miss 4-6 Weeks

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SATURDAY: The Mariners have announced that Mariners Medical Director E. Edward Khalfayan has confirmed that Iwakuma has inflammation in his right shoulder. Iwakuma is expected to miss four to six weeks.

WEDNESDAY: The Mariners announced that they’ve placed right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma on the 10-day disabled list due to inflammation in his right shoulder. In a corresponding move, the Mariners selected the contract of right-hander Sam Gaviglio from Triple-A Tacoma, also transferring righty Evan Marshall to the 60-day DL to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for Gaviglio. Iwakuma, according to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (on Twitter), is headed back to Seattle for an MRI.

Iwakuma becomes the latest Mariners starter to land on the disabled list, joining Drew Smyly, James Paxton and Felix Hernandez on the shelf. With a stunning 80 percent of their Opening Day rotation on the disabled list, Seattle has turned to lefty Ariel Miranda and offseason acquisitions Chase De Jong and Dillon Overton in the rotation mix. Gaviglio may eventually join that mix, though for now right-hander Christian Bergman will step into the rotation and make a start in Toronto, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune tweets.

The 26-year-old Gaviglio, then, could initially be ticketed for long relief or could start in place of Overton next time around. Gaviglio had been pitching well in Triple-A, recording a 3.31 ERA with 4.4 K/9, 0.8 BB/9 and a 57.4 percent ground-ball rate through five starts (32 2/3 innings) with Tacoma. Originally acquired from the Cardinals back in 2014 in exchange for Ty Kelly, Gaviglio has a 4.38 ERA with 6.6 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 in parts of three Triple-A seasons (197 1/3 innings).

Iwakuma’s status is especially worth monitoring due to the fact that his health will determine whether his 2018 option vests. As noted yesterday when parsing through the vesting options around the league, Iwakuma is just 94 innings shy of locking in a $10MM salary for the 2018 season.

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