National League Notes: Rockies, Realmuto, Yelich, Taillon
Dave Cameron of Fangraphs postulates that the Rockies need to upgrade more than just their bullpen if they hope to be successful in 2018. He wonders if their additions so far “haven’t improved them as much as prevented them from getting worse.” At first glance, one could say that Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw are probably improvements over Greg Holland and Pat Neshek, respectively. However, considering the low WAR contribution from relievers in comparison to other players, those upgrades seem marginal. The team still has big questions to answer at first base, and in the outfield, so although they seem to have the best bullpen in the NL as it stands right now, they need to make impactful additions in other areas or rely on significant improvements from members of their current roster. After all, projections have them significantly behind the Dodgers in the NL West, as well as St. Louis and Arizona in the Wild Card race.
Questions continue to pop up when looking towards the future. Cameron notes that the 2017 iteration of the Rockies worked in large part because Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado provided them with over 12 fWAR at just $20MM between them. Unfortunately for Colorado, Blackmon is set to reach free agency at the end of 2018, and it would take a significant raise on his current salary to bring him back. The same is true for Arenado the year following. The bullpen contracts the team dished out this year will cost them something in the neighborhood of $35MM per season through 2020; that puts a significant constraint on their ability to retain their stars or further build through free agency. Cameron’s article raises some important questions about the Rockies’ offseason moves so far, and is worth a full read.
More news from around the National League as we approach New Year’s Eve…
- Speculation surrounding Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto and outfielder Christian Yelich has been heating up lately, and Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports that while the club is willing to listen on their two most valuable remaining trade assets, actually moving either player would require a “huge overpay”. Frisaro adds that the team is not looking to “water down” the return for either of them, making a potential salary dump inclusion of Martin Prado or Brad Ziegler less likely. MLBTR profiled Realmuto’s trade candidacy on Christmas Day, listing the Nationals, Rockies and Diamondbacks as good fits in theory. He’s projected for just a $4.2MM salary next season, and can be controlled through arbitration for two more years after that. As for Yelich, he’s been worth an average of 4 fWAR in each of the past four seasons and is owed just $43.25MM through 2021 thanks to a team-friendly contract extension.
- Jameson Taillon had a tough battle with cancer last season, causing him to miss significant time during the season. But the resilient Pirates righty is feeling confident headed into the 2018 season, and Adam Berry of MLB.com has the inside scoop. “You spend time in the clubhouse and know we have a lot of good guys as humans that are extremely determined to get better,” Taillon said. He’s reportedly working on new pitch grips and developing plans for how to attack hitters in the upcoming season. Taillon finished last season with a 4.44 ERA, though his 3.48 FIP paints a decidedly more attractive picture of his potential.
Heyman’s Latest: Nats, Yelich, Giants, Napoli
In his latest run of notes from around the game, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag touches upon a variety of topics. Many are covered in an omnibus post, while others get their own full treatment. Here are a few highlights with particular hot stove relevance:
- The Nationals have put out feelers on the top available relievers, says Heyman, even though the club surely isn’t desperate to find a new option in the ninth inning. While Wade Davis is now off the board, it seems Greg Holland could yet be an option for the Nats. And of broader importance, the report suggests that further bullpen upgrades are still under consideration as the team considers how it can put the finishing touches on an already-strong roster.
- Numerous teams are obviously preparing to pursue Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich, who the Fish are reportedly increasingly willing to deal. Just how likely is a deal? Heyman cites a few sources who describe the situation as one in which the club is making Yelich and teammate J.T. Realmuto available in talks. Among the organizations with some level of interest in Yelich, per Heyman, are the Diamondbacks, Braves, and Giants. No doubt there are plenty of others, too, that will line up for both players.
- Speaking of options, the Giants are evidently still looking at quite a range of options in the outfield. Heyman says that trade candidates include not only Yelich but also Andrew McCutchen and Juan Lagares. (Others, of course, have linked the team to Billy Hamilton throughout the winter.) The free agent market is still chock full of possibilities, and Heyman says the team is still a potential landing spot for top option J.D. Martinez as well as the previously rumored Jay Bruce. Beyond that, Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Jarrod Dyson, and Jon Jay seem to be on the radar for the Giants.
- There have been some conflicting signals floating around on slugger Mike Napoli, it seems clear there’s serious interest between him and the Twins. The veteran slugger hasn’t lined up yet with Minnesota, but Heyman says some believe it’s “something of a likelihood” that a deal will ultimately be struck between the sides. Of course, there are still quite a few other defensively-limited sluggers on the market, but it seems the Twins are focused on Napoli both to add some pop and provide a strong veteran presence to the young squad.
Marlins Open To Trade Talks About Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto
7:24pm: The Nationals asked about Realmuto during the Winter Meetings but were told that the Marlins weren’t planning to deal him, MLB.com’s Jamal Collier reports. Matt Wieters’ struggles in 2017 make Washington a natural candidate to look for a catching upgrade, though Collier notes that it isn’t GM Mike Rizzo’s style to make a huge trade offer for Realmuto that the Marlins couldn’t refuse.
5:34pm: The Marlins are in “active trade discussions” about outfielder Christian Yelich and catcher J.T. Realmuto, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link). No trade is imminent, Morosi notes, and the exact nature of Miami’s willingness to deal either of its controllable young stars isn’t yet determined.
According to Clark Spencer and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, three sources give slightly different descriptions of the talks. One source says the Marlins are “more seriously considering offers” than in the past, and are particularly listening on Yelich. Another source says that the Marlins are listening to offers but “not aggressively shopping” either player, while the third source says rival teams have been informed by Miami that Yelich and Realmuto “are available for the right price.”
It’s worth noting that none of these three takes on the situation really contradict each other, and ultimately, the Marlins could simply be doing their due diligence in exploring what they could get for two very valuable trade chips. There have been conflicting reports on whether the Marlins were really looking to move Yelich (or Realmuto), or if the team had completed much of its heavy lifting in terms of payroll clearance in previous trades of Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon, and (to a lesser extent) Marcell Ozuna.
Both Yelich and Realmuto have been disappointed with this latest Miami rebuild, with Realmuto going so far as to reportedly ask for a trade. Since both players are under team control (Yelich via an extension, Realmuto via arbitration) for several more years, they don’t have any real leverage to make a deal happen, though obviously the Marlins could see value in moving players that no longer want to be there, especially when those two players could bring back multiple young assets in return.
As Jackson and Spencer note in their piece, the Marlins could try to capitalize on Yelich and Realmuto’s trade value by attaching one of their remaining big contracts (i.e. Martin Prado, Brad Ziegler, Junichi Tazawa) to either of those players in a trade. Multiple teams have been linked to Yelich for months now, while Realmuto would certainly generate almost as much interest, even from teams that may have a solid catcher in place but could be swayed by the idea of landing a younger option.
Looking for a Match in a J.T. Realmuto Trade
A new ownership group in Miami (headlined by Derek Jeter) has kicked off a fire sale. Dee Gordon is now a Mariner, Giancarlo Stanton a Yankee, and Marcell Ozuna a Cardinal, and there’s no telling whether the Marlins are done yet.
In the wake of this significant shift in direction for the organization, catcher J.T. Realmuto has reportedly requested a trade out of the city. While the team has stated that they have no intention to trade him (via Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports), the club had similar things to say about Ozuna early this offseason before shipping him to St. Louis for a package of prospects. On that note, there’s reason to at least explore his trade value and market.
Unlike Stanton or Gordon, Realmuto has significant surplus value on his contract. He’s been worth a combined 9 WAR across the past three seasons due to his excellent defense, above-average bat and good baserunning skills. He’s projected to make just a $4.2MM salary in his first trip through the arbitration process, and comes with two additional years of team control beyond the 2018 season. The former third-round pick out of Oklahoma’s Carl Albert High School is just entering his prime; he’ll begin the 2018 season having turned just 27 years old.
Realmuto, then, doesn’t help the Marlins’ with their loudly-stated goal to shed salary. However, by taking Stanton, Gordon and Ozuna off the books, they seem to have already reduced their payroll significantly. They don’t seem to have any intention of competing for an NL East pennant this year, and it’s looking more and more like Realmuto won’t be around for the next winning Marlins club. After all, teams like the Astros, Cubs and Nationals all took longer than three years to go from teardown to contention.
So with a realistic time frame to contend in mind, it’s difficult to believe the Marlins wouldn’t move Realmuto for the right offer. The question, then, is a matter of what kind of package would tempt them enough to move their backstop. Above-average major leaguers with three arbitration years remaining typically cost a small fortune; one need not look any further than the Braves’ recent trades of Andrelton Simmons and Craig Kimbrel for evidence. It would likely take at least one “blue-chip” prospect to even get the Marlins to pick up the phone, and probably another prospect within or near the top 100 to ultimately get a deal done.
A trade partner, then, would need to have a strong farm system along with a significant need at the catcher position. That club wouldn’t necessarily need to stand out as a contender this season, but Realmuto would fit best on a team with a fairly obvious multi-year window in the near future.
The Nationals jump off the page as the most obvious trade partner for the Marlins in a hypothetical Realmuto trade. They have a great farm system, including outfielder Juan Soto, who doesn’t have an obvious path to the majors. The Nationals’ outfield is crowded, and superprospect Victor Robles is ahead of him in the pecking order. Thanks in part to a terrible season from Matt Wieters, Nats catchers ranked dead last in the majors with -1.1 fWAR. Washington would definitely benefit from the sizable upgrade Realmuto would provide them at the catcher position; in theory the team would have won about five more games last year if they’d had him instead of Wieters.
Beyond that, the Rockies and Diamondbacks are fairly good fits. Both clubs ranked in the bottom ten in WAR value from the catcher position in 2017, and neither has any promising backstops in their farm system. Additionally, both teams are obvious contenders in 2018. Either team could feasibly deal from its prospect depth in order to add Realmuto to their lineup.
The Padres may be ready to give up on Austin Hedges at this point, and while the team probably won’t win next season, they could feasibly be contenders before Realmuto hits free agency. The Twins could make a play if they’re not content with mediocre offensive production from Jason Castro. If the Brewers aren’t buying last year’s breakout from 30-year-old Manny Pina, they’d have plenty of prospect depth to get a deal done.
Although there’s no rush to trade him at the moment, there are a host of teams that would probably be willing to fork over enormous value for a catcher who ranked third in the majors in fWAR this past season. The Marlins would be wise to keep their ears open if they’re approached teams who are interested in, or desperate for, an elite backstop.
Heyman’s Latest: Blue Jays, D-Backs, Cobb, Lagares, Castro
Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reported on a few items of note in his latest column and has followed up with some additional bits of information. We’ll run down some of the key takeaways here:
- While the Blue Jays have been quiet thus far, Heyman says they could be lurking on a few interesting names. In the outfield, J.D. Martinez is a legitimate target, he says, as are Carlos Gonzalez and Lorenzo Cain. The club is also considering quality utility options such as Eduardo Nunez and Howie Kendrick. Meanwhile, Toronto has reached out to the Padres on Brad Hand, who’s a highly valuable relief asset. It remains to be seen whether the Jays will be willing to pony up a lot of cash or prospect assets to make a significant win-now move, but it’s notable that the team is at least exploring some notable possibilities.
- The Diamondbacks reportedly had real interest in Orioles infielder Manny Machado, but Heyman says the Snakes were not willing to consider moving third bagger Jake Lamb in a deal. That’s not terribly surprising; after all, the 27-year-old Lamb has only just reached arbitration eligibility and posted consecutive solid campaigns in which he has maintained a composite .248/.345/.498 batting line. Though he’s clearly an inferior overall player to Machado, Lamb is the type of affordable, quality regular that a team with Arizona’s payroll can ill afford to part with.
- Thus far, free agent righty Alex Cobb “is thought to have been asking for about $20 million a year,” Heyman writes, noting that his agents may view Mike Leake as a comp. Of course, Cobb is older and less durable than Leake was when he hit the open market, though Cobb also has a loftier established ceiling on the mound (at least, dating to his output before undergoing Tommy John surgery).
- There’s some interest from rival organizations in Mets center fielder Juan Lagares, Heyman reports on Twitter. Of course, it’s far from clear that the New York organization has real interest in dealing away the 28-year-old. To the contrary, indications to date have been that the Mets expect to utilize Lagares quite heavily. The rangy defender last topped 400 plate appearances in 2015 and has not posted a league-average season with the bat since the season before that.
- The Marlins are still indicating to rivals that they’re not particularly interested in dealing Christian Yelich or J.T. Realmuto, Heyman tweets, though of course that could yet be a bargaining stance. Notably, though, the Fish are said to be seeking ways of parting with the recently acquired contract of Starlin Castro. Though Miami executive Gary Denbo indicated earlier today the club intends to keep Castro, it certainly would not be surprising for Miami to strike a deal if it means shedding yet more salary obligations to a player who likely won’t be a part of the organization’s next contending roster.
J.T. Realmuto Reportedly Requests Trade
11:15am: Per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link), the Marlins say they understand the reasoning behind Realmuto’s desire to be traded (the same goes for Christian Yelich), given the scope of the team’s recent rebuilding efforts. However, the Marlins still do not have any intention to trade Realmuto at present, Nightengale adds.
10:51am: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that Realmuto does indeed want to be traded out of Miami.
10:46am: The Marlins haven’t been shy about blowing up the active roster, having traded away Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna. Those trades, obviously, aren’t likely to sit well with the remaining talent on the roster, and it seems that catcher J.T. Realmuto can be counted among that camp. Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweets that Realmuto has requested a trade out of Miami; FanRag’s Jon Heyman, meanwhile, more softly suggests that Realmuto has simply told the team that he “wouldn’t mind” a trade of his own, given what has transpired in recent weeks (Twitter link).
It doesn’t come as much of a surprise that one of the remaining top-tier young talents in Miami would, to whatever degree, express to the front office and ownership that he’s amenable to a trade (or, more strongly, that he would definitively like to be traded). The Marlins’ moves to shed payroll and the unlikeliness that the saved resources will be invested into the 2018 product leave little chance that the team will be competitive next year.
Realmuto, 26, might not be a household name but has quietly emerged as one of the better all-around catchers in the game over the past couple of seasons. In 1124 plate appearances dating back to Opening Day 2016, Realmuto has slashed .290/.337/.440 with 28 homers, 62 doubles, five triples and 20 stolen bases.
He’s also thrown out 33.7 percent of would-be base thieves — well above the league average of 27 percent — and in 2017 ranked as an above-average pitch framer (after a pair of negative seasons in that regard). Realmuto also ranked among the game’s best in terms of blocking pitches in the dirt, and Baseball Prospectus’ overall Fielding Runs Above Average metric pegged him as MLB’s sixth-best defensive catcher in 2017.
Realumuto’s value, though, goes well beyond the fact that he’s established himself as an above-average contributor on both sides of the ball. He’s also highly desirable from a contractual standpoint, as he’s entering his first offseason of arbitration eligibility and remains under team control through the 2020 season. Realmuto will turn 27 in March, so any team acquiring him would be acquiring three affordable years of his physical prime; he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn an eminently affordable $4.2MM in 2018.
Heyman notes that the team’s response to Realmuto’s suggestion/request isn’t yet known. It’s worth noting that the Marlins are under no obligation to trade him even if he wants out. However, ticket sales in Miami already figure to be in the tank after their aggressive moves to pare back the payroll, and from a pure baseball standpoint, there’s an easy argument to be made that they should deal him now to continue adding young talent to what entered the offseason as perhaps baseball’s worst farm system. Three years of Realmuto should come with quite a bit of value even if there aren’t too many contending clubs in dire need of an everyday catcher. Speculatively, though, the Nationals, D-backs and Rockies are among the expected contenders that could use an upgrade behind the dish.
NL East Notes: Braves, Nats, Harris, Jennings, Marlins
Here’s the latest from around the NL East…
- The Nationals granted the Braves permission to speak to Nats assistant GM Doug Harris and special assistant Dan Jennings about Atlanta’s general manager vacancy, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports (Twitter link). Earlier this week, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reported that Nats GM Mike Rizzo contacted Braves upper management to give Harris a recommendation. Harris was originally hired as Washington’s farm director in 2010 and has since risen to the AGM and VP of player personnel roles, as well as overseeing the Nationals’ minor league system. He has also worked with John Hart before, as Harris was a Rangers scout when Hart was Texas’ general manager. Jennings, of course, is best known for his long stint with the Marlins, most notably as their general manager and then on-field manager. In another tweet, O’Brien hears from the Braves that their GM search “will likely be slow developing,” which isn’t surprising given the abrupt nature of the team’s front office shakeup earlier this week.
- The Marlins‘ top trade chips are analyzed by former GMs Dan O’Dowd and Jim Bowden in a piece by the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson. Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna have the most trade value, though the two ex-GMs disagree on Dee Gordon‘s value. Both would move Dan Straily if the Fish can get a good young arm in return, essentially reversing the deal that saw Miami acquire Straily from the Reds last winter for Luis Castillo. Giancarlo Stanton is obviously a major asset, though his no-trade clause and huge contract greatly limits his list of possible suitors, and limits what the Marlins can reasonably expect back in return. In general,
- A trade of Jose Urena or Kyle Barraclough would be “highly unlikely,” Jackson reports, and J.T. Realmuto or Justin Bour would only be dealt if the Marlins could get multiple good prospects back in return. In Bowden’s opinion, the Marlins “have to listen on anyone. If you are challenged economically like they are, you are looking for controllable, inexpensive players that are not eligible for arbitration yet.”
Latest On Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins
Giancarlo Stanton discusses his future with the Marlins in a big new feature by Fan Rag’s Jon Heyman. Here are the highlights.
- Stanton isn’t interested in being around for a rebuild, should the Marlins go that route, as seems fairly likely, under new ownership. “I don’t want to rebuild,” he tells Heyman bluntly. “I’ve lost for seven years.” Stanton’s take on the Marlins’ situation is worth noting, since he has a full no-trade clause, plus an opt-out after 2020.
- “I’m sick of the negativity,” Stanton says. “Anything positive I’ve done, there’s still negativity. I’m doing this … but the owner’s doing that. I’m doing this, but the team’s doing that.” Stanton further notes that even upon the announcement of his record-setting contract, “most of the questions were negative.”
- Stanton describes his chase for 60-plus home runs as “a fun little obstacle,” but adds that “[i]f it doesn’t happen … oh well.”
- A rival executive tells Heyman that one potential issue with trading Stanton is that the Marlins would have to compensate for the backloading of the contract — Stanton has only made $30MM so far (meaning he’s been underpaid — by about a factor of three, Heyman figures), and $295MM is left on the deal.
- This isn’t directly Stanton-related, but Heyman notes as an aside that in the Marlins clubhouse, veterans are wondering out loud about where they might be traded over the winter. Some feel the Cardinals are a possibility. Heyman doesn’t name them, although the Cardinals have been connected to Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich in the past.
- Yelich and catcher J.T. Realmuto are the two players potential trading partners ask about most frequently, Heyman adds.
NL Notes: Chatwood, Cardinals, Realmuto, Brewers
The Rockies announced yesterday that they’ve moved right-hander Tyler Chatwood to the bullpen, clearing way for rookie Antonio Senzatela to rejoin the starting rotation, as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes. That’s a disappointing development for the 27-year-old Chatwood, who is slated to become a free agent for the first time following the 2017 season. The results for Chatwood haven’t been there in 2017, though, as he’s averaged 7.2 K/9, 5.0 BB/9 and 1.36 HR/9 en route to a 5.11 ERA through 112 2/3 innings. Chatwood does have a rather gaudy 57.4 percent ground-ball rate, though, and he’s pitched well away from Coors Field in each of the past two seasons. Both elements could help him look a bit more favorable on this winter’s open market, as will the fact that he’s rather young for a free-agent starter. Chatwood, as Saunders notes, voiced that his clear preference is to pitch as a starter, though he also stated that he’ll pitch in whatever role the Rox feel is best as the team looks to land an NL Wild Card spot.
More from the Senior Circuit…
- Cardinals lefty Kevin Siegrist landed on the 10-day disabled list due to forearm tendinitis, as Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Siegrist has been battling injuries “for a while,” per manager Mike Matheny, and his latest placement on the DL will give fellow lefty Tyler Lyons even more looks in higher-leverage spots. “We’ll be able to use him in big situations — lefty, righty, regardless,” said Matheny of Lyons. “…His stuff’s always been there. You could see him being effective in any role because the slider and curveball are that good. His changeup is really improved.” The 29-year-old Lyons is enjoying a career year with an 11.1 K/9 rate against 2.9 BB/9 and a 3.18 ERA through 34 innings in a short-relief role.
- The Marlins conducted a bit of a defensive experiment yesterday by starting catcher J.T. Realmuto at first, but Tim Healey of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel writes that said arrangement isn’t likely to have a long-term impact on how much Realmuto catches. Miami still plans to start Realmuto behind the dish as often as possible, but the look at first base was meant to see how he’d fare there on a day he’d otherwise have received off entirely. Realmuto impressed, defensively, per manager Don Mattingly, and it stands to reason that if the Fish are comfortable with him there, it could be a means of getting Realmuto into a few more games next season. “He’s not going to be a guy over there three days a week, or anything like that,” said Mattingly. “He’s pretty much our catcher. But I think it is a way to get him off his legs. A day game like today.”
- Brewers general manager David Stearns spoke at length with Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel about his team’s decision not to part with significant long-term pieces for big-name upgrades prior to the non-waiver deadline. As Stearns explains, there was simply a group of players — both on the Major League roster and in the minors — that the Brewers weren’t willing to discuss in trades, barring the emergence of an unexpected trade candidate on the market. Stearns rejected the narrative that the Cubs’ acquisition of Jose Quintana galvanized the clubhouse and sparked a winning streak. “I think the Cubs’ recent run has more to do with the overall quality of their roster than one individual player,” said the GM. Haudricourt’s column is rife with lengthy quotes from Stearns on his thoughts leading up to the deadline and into August trading season, so readers should definitely check it out in its entirety.
Latest On Marlins’ Sale And Deadline Plans
As discussions on the possible sale of the Marlins continue to drag on, it’s beginning to seem questionable whether any resolution will be found before the deadline. New reports suggest ongoing uncertainty as to just who will end up buying the team, and cast new doubt as to whether the organization will make any major deadline moves with that situation still open.
Jorge Mas had emerged recently as the possible favorite to land the Fish. But that now seems in doubt. Charles Gasparino of FOX Business reported yesterday (Twitter link) that the league is concerned Mas may even drop out of the bidding. As Dave Hyde of the Sun Sentinel and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald further explore, the team may be expecting just that result.
Mas is said to be frustrated by the unwillingness of current owner Jeffrey Loria to agree to an exclusive bargaining window. For his part, Loria seems to be holding open the possibility that further competition will boost the offers to his current price of $1.2B. But the constant stream of information, frequently pointing in different directions, seemingly poses its own risks to the club’s efforts.
With that backdrop, the Marlins are not presently interested in considering trade proposals for their three most interesting possible trade pieces, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Talks on outfielders Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna will need to wait for the offseason, per the report. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro hears much the same, noting on Twitter that other controllable players such as J.T. Realmuto and Dan Straily remain off limits at present.
In some regards, that’s not a new development. Prior reports — see here and here — have said as much. But it has seemed at times that the stance could conceivably change in advance of the deadline, particularly if some of those assets could help the club free itself of some other contracts. Miami is said to be weighing offers on its relievers, with an apparent willingness to move infielders Martin Prado (who’s now on the DL) and Dee Gordon, so there’s still business to be done — and, perhaps, still time for the club to reconsider its stance on the players noted above.