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Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: American League

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Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.

Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.

Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.

Orioles

Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.

Red Sox

  • James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)

Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)

Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.

It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.

Yankees

Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.

Rays

Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Blue Jays

The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.

White Sox

This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.

Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.

Guardians

Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.

Twins

Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.

Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.

The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.

Astros

Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.

Athletics

Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.

Mariners

  • Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)

Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.

Rangers

Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.

Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.

The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.

Red Sox Notes: Paxton, Wacha, Houck, Sale

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Red Sox lefty James Paxton, who underwent Tommy John surgery last year, seems to finally be healthy enough to start ramping things up. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the southpaw recently faced lived hitters and is expected to throw in a simulated game this Friday. The next step after that will be for him to start a rehab assignment, which would be followed by a return to the big league club.

“He’s in such a good spot now that it’s not about the arm,” manager Alex Cora said about Paxton. “It’s about the pitch mix, the breaking ball, all that. When those guys start talking about that, you know they’re over the hump.”

Paxton’s form down the stretch will be very significant both for him and the club, regardless of where they are in the standings. Boston signed him to a unique contract over the offseason, knowing that he was rehabbing from TJS and unlikely to contribute over a full season. Paxton is making a $6MM salary this year and then the club will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $13MM options for 2023-2024 at the end of the season. If the team declines to pick up what is effectively a two-year, $26MM deal, Paxton can decide to trigger a $4MM player option for 2023 or decline it and return to free agency. Those decisions will surely depend upon what Paxton shows in the coming weeks.

The Red Sox could use some contributions from Paxton, both in this season and in the future, given the tumult of their rotation. Just about every starter in Boston’s rotation has either landed on the IL or been optioned to the minors at some point, with Nick Pivetta being the only constant. Michael Wacha has only made 13 starts this year due to a pair of IL stints, one for an intercostal strain and the other for shoulder inflammation. However, Cotillo reports that he threw 4 1/3 innings in a rehab start last night and should return to the big league club for his next outing. That should give the club a boost, as they look to finish strong in the AL Wild Card race. They are currently five games behind the Rays for the last spot.

Looking farther into the future, each of Wacha, Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill are slated to reach free agency this offseason, which is part of the reason why those Paxton options might seem alluring, even if he only returns for a brief period of time. The 2023 Boston rotation might also take a hit from the uncertainty surrounding Chris Sale. The lefty was once one of the most dominant arms in the game but has hardly pitched in recent years due to a cavalcade of injuries. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2020 and limited him to nine starts last year. He began this year on the IL due to a stress fracture in rib cage, returning to throw one five-inning start before his second start was cut short after less than an inning when a comebacker broke his finger. While on the IL, he managed to get hurt again, falling off a bicycle near his home and breaking his wrist, eliminating any hopes of his return this year.

Due to all that, Sale will go into the offseason having thrown just 48 1/3 total innings over the past three seasons, which raises questions about how much the Red Sox can rely on him for the rotation next year. “We obviously need to think through what that means as far as planning out a full season with him not having carried very much of a workload the last few years,” chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom tells Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic. “If we want to play 162-plus we have to build our team to have a lot of starting pitching depth,” he added. With Hill, Wacha and Eovaldi headed to the open market and Sale and Paxton unknown wild cards at this point, there’s plenty of uncertainty hanging over Boston’s future rotation.

Turning back to the present season, the Sox placed reliever Tanner Houck on the 15-day injured list with back inflammation yesterday, Cotillo relays, which will deliver a hit to the bullpen. Houck has a 3.15 ERA on the year, with a 22.7% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and 50.9% ground ball rate. That’s included many high-leverage spots, as Houck as eight saves and one hold on the year. He’ll join Tyler Danish, Matt Strahm and Josh Taylor among Boston relievers currently on the injured list. The bullpen is so banged up that Cora told reporters, including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, that Hill might see some action out of the ’pen, despite having just started yesterday’s game.

Red Sox Notes: Winckowski, Sale, Paxton

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Tthe Red Sox are amidst a stretch of ten games in nine days, thanks to a doubleheader against the Orioles on Saturday. That could necessitate the club using a spot starter, with manager Alex Cora suggesting Josh Winckowski as a possible candidate, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.

The right-hander was a 15th round selection of the Blue Jays in 2016, but went to the Mets as part of the Steven Matz trade, about two weeks before the Mets sent him to Boston in the three-team Andrew Benintendi deal. Last year, his first in the Red Sox organization, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, throwing 112 total innings with a 3.94 ERA, 21.3% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate, earning himself a spot on the 40-man roster.

This year, the 23-year-old seems to have taken things forward a notch over his first seven starts and 31 2/3 innings for Triple-A Worcester. His ERA is at 3.13 with a 27.9% strikeout rate, 4.9% walk rate and 57% grounder rate. He last started for the WooSox Sunday, which would line up as the team’s 27th man for Saturday’s doubleheader on five days’ rest.

Further down the road, the rotation should get a boost from the return of Chris Sale, who threw a 15-pitch bullpen session today. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that Sale is scheduled for another bullpen on Friday and is likely to throw another next week. Cora suggested that Sale could be in line to throw live batting practice following next week’s session if all goes well. That’d mark his first time throwing to hitters since he was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his rib cage in March.

There’s still a long road ahead before Sale can contribute to the big league team, though it’s encouraging that he’s at least making progress. The lefty threw 42 2/3 innings last year in his return from Tommy John surgery and was effective, though not quite at the ace level of previous years. His 3.16 ERA was over a run higher than his 2018 mark, with his 28.4% strikeout rate coming in about 10 points below the same number from three years earlier.

Boston is also awaiting the season debut of James Paxton, who is rehabbing from last April’s Tommy John surgery. The southpaw is a bit behind Sale in his recovery after being sidelined by continued elbow soreness this month, but he tells Rob Bradford of WEEI (audio link) he’s feeling better and has again started throwing. Paxton suggested he’s looking to gradually progress from 60 to 120 feet during his work from flat ground before he could begin throwing bullpen sessions of his own.

The 33-year-old Paxton signed a convoluted free agent deal over the offseason. He’s making $6MM this year, and the Sox will have to decide whether to trigger matching $13MM options for 2023-24 at the end of the season. If the team declines their end, Paxton can exercise a $4MM player option for 2023 only or test free agency. How long Paxton’s stay in Boston lasts will certainly be determined by his progress in his ongoing recovery and his form whenever he makes his return.

Red Sox Notes: Martinez, Bogaerts, Vazquez, Sale, Paxton

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J.D. Martinez’s five-year, $110MM deal with the Red Sox is up at season’s end, and the slugger again made clear this weekend that he’d love to return (link via Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe). “Would I love to stay here?” Martinez asked rhetorically. “Yeah. I’ve expressed that to ownership.” Martinez added that he told the Sox he was “really open” to an extension as far back as the 2019-20 offseason. However, he also acknowledged that, as far as contract talks are concerned, “nothing has really happened since I got here.” Martinez further noted that if a Boston reunion isn’t in the cards, he’s at least excited to have a wider range of potential suitors thanks to the advent of the universal designated hitter.

While many nine-figure free agent deals prove regrettable by the time they draw to a close, Martinez has been a mostly sound investment for the Sox. Although he struggled in the shortened 2020 season, he boasts an overall .298/.369/.548 batting line with 118 home runs through 2296 plate appearances since signing his deal. That includes a huge .321/.370/.541 line (164 wRC+) to begin the 2022 campaign. Martinez will turn 35 in August, but his bat isn’t showing many signs of slowing down even as he enters his mid-30s. Boston has about $92.5MM in guaranteed money on the books in 2023, but $20MM of that is allocated to Xander Bogaerts, who is all but a lock to exercise an opt-out in his contract (barring an extension).

More out of Boston…

  • While Bogaerts is almost certainly ticketed for the open market at the end of the season, the star shortstop left open the possibility of in-season extension talks over the weekend. His agent Scott Boras downplayed those chances, telling Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (Twitter link) that extension talks with the Sox won’t take place during the regular season. Whether behind-the-scenes discussions take place or not, it has never seemed likely the sides will come to an agreement after they were extremely far apart in Spring Training. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last month that Boston had offered an additional one year and $30MM to convince Bogaerts to forego his opt-out possibility. That’s well shy of the three-time All-Star’s likely market value, and Bogaerts implied over the weekend the team would have to significantly raise their offer were they to try to reignite talks. “I don’t know how this would work,” he said.”But if they talk to Scott behind closed doors and it’s something that’s fair, he can come to me. We’ll see how that goes.
  • The Red Sox “were quietly shopping” Christian Vazquez over the winter but (obviously) never lined up with a potential trade partner, writes Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic in her latest mailbag column. Boston exercised a $7MM club option on the 32-year-old catcher at the end of the 2021 season but was also reported to be heavily in the mix for Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings over the winter — before he was ultimately instead traded to Miami. Vazquez slugged 23 homers in the “juiced ball” season in 2019 and had a stronger 2020 campaign (on a rate basis). However, he’s struggled to a .252/.302/.344 output in 583 subsequent plate appearances (2022 included). McCaffrey suggests that if the Sox don’t right the ship, Vazquez could again be a trade candidate this summer, which would leave prospect Connor Wong and veteran Kevin Plawecki as the team’s primary catchers. Of course, Plawecki himself is a free agent at season’s end and could change hands in such a scenario — assuming he can bounce back from the dreadful .139/.179/.167 slash he’s posted through his first 40 plate appearances.
  • Injured Sox ace Chris Sale, who is on the 60-day IL with a stress fracture in his rib cage, has been cleared to begin throwing and is playing catch, tweets Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. At last check, Sale wasn’t throwing and was dealing with a non-baseball, non-Covid related medical issue, but it seems he’s put that past him and is officially progressing toward a return to the mound. The seven-time All-Star has thrown just 42 2/3 innings since the conclusion of the 2019 season, primarily due to Tommy John surgery. Speier also notes that fellow southpaw James Paxton is still receiving treatment and has yet to begin throwing as he works back from 2021 Tommy John surgery. The Sox announced earlier this month that Paxton was dealing with continued soreness in his elbow.

Red Sox Notes: Sale, Paxton, Whitlock, Hill, Hernandez, Duran

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With the Red Sox struggling, it will still be a while before two big reinforcements are back on the mound.  Boston chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams and MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith) today that Chris Sale’s rehab from a stress fracture in his ribcage has been delayed by another medical issue, one not related to baseball or to COVID-19.  Sale has yet to resume throwing, and his return from the 60-day injured list is now expected for late June.

James Paxton is also dealing with some posterior elbow soreness, which is concerning since Paxton is just over a year removed from Tommy John surgery.  That rehab was already expected to keep Paxton from returning until around June or July, though this latest soreness could very well push back Paxton’s timeline, even though the southpaw is expected to resume throwing soon.

Paxton signed a one-year “swellopt” contract with Boston prior to the lockout, which will pay the left-hander $10MM in guaranteed money in 2022, and potentially up to $32MM over the 2022-24 seasons depending on whether or not the Red Sox exercise a pair of club options.  Naturally, the deal was signed with the knowledge that Paxton would miss a good chunk of the 2022 season, but Boston’s 10-17 record to date might change the equation.  While there is still plenty of time left for the Sox to turn things around, falling too far back in the competitive AL East might lead Bloom and company to consider selling at the trade deadline.

Sale is no stranger to Tommy John recoveries, as a TJ procedure sidelined Sale for the entire 2020 season and delayed his 2021 debut until August.  Since elbow problems also shut Sale down early in the 2019 campaign, the veteran lefty has pitched only 51 2/3 innings (in the regular season and postseason) since August 14, 2019.

Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, and Rich Hill have all pitched very well in Boston’s rotation this year, while Nick Pivetta has struggled and Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck have split duties as both starters and relievers.  Whitlock has been the better of the two, and Bloom said that Whitlock will be officially moved into the starting five while Hill is sidelined with a positive COVID-19 test.

Whitlock will start Tuesday’s game against the Braves, which will mark his fourth consecutive start.  Thus far, Whitlock has been just about as dominant in the rotation as he has in the bullpen, with a 1.50 ERA over his first 12 innings as a starting pitcher.  The Sox have been gradually building Whitlock’s pitch counts over those three starts, and he could now be close to being stretched out enough to operate in a more normal starting capacity.

Both Hill and Enrique Hernandez were placed on the COVID-related IL yeterday, though Hernandez was already activated today, as his symptoms weren’t coronavirus-related.  In the corresponding move, Jarren Duran was optioned back to Triple-A after a one-game appearance in the Show.  Duran tripled and walked as part of a 1-for-4 performance in Boston’s 4-2 loss to the White Sox last night.

8 Post-Tommy John Pitchers Who’ll Impact Next Year’s Market

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We’ve grown accustomed to seeing headline after headline indicating that a pitcher is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery in today’s game. The procedure has become so commonplace, in fact, that it’s no longer surprising to see teams guarantee multi-year deals to rehabbing pitchers who’ll be sidelined for a full season of that contract as they work back from the injury. Such deals have produced varying levels of success in the past. Nathan Eovaldi’s two-year deal with the Rays worked out great; Drew Smyly didn’t pitch for the Cubs and posted a 6.24 after being traded to the Rangers.

Heading into the 2022 season, there are a handful of notable pitchers who were either signed under just that circumstance or are now playing for a contract on the heels of a Tommy John surgery that, hopefully, is more or less in the rearview mirror. A strong rebound will position any of this bunch either as a prominent member of next winter’s free-agent crop or, in some cases, to have a lucrative 2023 club option picked up. Here’s a look at a handful of Tommy John recoveries that could have a notable impact on next year’s market.

Starting Pitchers

Mike Clevinger: A marquee addition by the Padres at the 2020 trade deadline, Clevinger made only four regular-season starts and a one-inning postseason cameo before requiring Tommy John surgery in the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego, knowing he’d miss the entire 2021 season, signed him to a two-year, $11.5MM deal that paid him $2MM during his rehab season but will more heavily compensate him in 2022, now that he’s expected to be back to full strength. It was the second Tommy John procedure of Clevinger’s career, as he also had the surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2012.

There’s little questioning Clevinger’s talent, as the now-31-year-old righty was one of the most effective starters in all of baseball from 2017 until the time of his injury in 2020. In 489 1/3 innings over that stretch, Clevinger posted a 2.96 ERA while punching out 28% of his opponents against a 9% walk rate. Among big league pitchers with at least 400 innings thrown during that time, Clevinger ranked seventh in ERA and 14th in FIP (3.39). That said, he’s also only reached 130 innings in a big league season on one occasion, when he threw an even 200 frames in 2019.

That relatively limited workload, coupled with this being Clevinger’s second Tommy John procedure, will surely impact his free agency next winter to an extent. That said, a strong and healthy season out of the righty will still position him as one of the top arms on next winter’s market. Clevinger, teammate Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea and Noah Syndergaard are among the more prominent free agents still in their early 30s next winter (to say nothing of older veterans with contract options or opt-outs, such as Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton).

James Paxton: Paxton isn’t necessarily playing for a free-agent contract. He signed a complicated multi-year deal with the Red Sox that’ll pay him $6MM in 2022 before he can either trigger a $4MM player option or the team can exercise a pair of $13MM club options for the 2023-24 seasons. For luxury-tax purposes, that should be considered a two-year, $10MM deal, as the player option for 2023 is considered to be guaranteed money. Of course, there’s also the possibility that with a healthy season, the contract will effectively balloon to a contract that pays Paxton $32MM over a three-year term. The deal contains further incentives, as Paxton could boost those 2023-24 salaries by $250K apiece for reaching 12, 14, 16 and 18 starts.

It’s a heavily incentive-laden deal that speaks both to the considerable risk in signing Paxton and the considerable upside he’ll bring to Boston. A healthy Paxton is a high-quality big league starter, evidenced the career 3.50 ERA he carried into an injury-ruined 2020 season with the Yankees. Among the 149 big league starters to toss at least 200 innings from 2017-19, Paxton’s 30.1% strikeout rate ranked seventh, and his 7.3% walk rate was markedly better than league average. His 22.7 K-BB% was among the best in the game, as were his strong ratings in the eyes of fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.26) and SIERA (3.45).

Since that 2019 season, however, Paxton has undergone back surgery, missed significant time with a forearm strain and eventually undergone Tommy John surgery. Earlier in his career, he’d dealt with lat, forearm and pectoral injuries, among a litany of smaller-scale issues.

There’s probably a scenario where Paxton pitches well enough to turn down his $4MM player option even if the Red Sox decline the effective two-year, $26MM option they hold over him. (We saw a comparable situation play out with Yusei Kikuchi earlier in the winter.) That said, the ideal scenario for Paxton and the Sox is that he pitches well enough to reestablish himself as a quality MLB hurler and boost those two club options to $14MM apiece in total value in the process.

Paxton underwent his Tommy John procedure in late April, so he’s not likely to be ready to help the Red Sox at the beginning of the season. By late May or June, however, he could represent a boost to a rotation that is not exactly shy of other injury concerns.

Justin Verlander: Even though he hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Verlander still got a hefty $25MM guarantee from the Astros — plus a conditional $25MM player option that kicks in if he reaches 130 innings pitched. The two-time Cy Young winner and former AL MVP has a track record that speaks for itself; when we last saw Verlander in a full, healthy season, he was edging then-teammate Gerrit Cole for the 2019 AL Cy Young Award.

Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his 40s, and he has a good chance at doing so if he can bounce back this coming season. He’ll turn 39 later this week, and if he goes out and looks anything like he did from 2015-20 — 1010 innings, 2.94 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate — Verlander will likely turn down that $25MM option, or at least leverage it into a new multi-year arrangement with the ’Stros. He was just promised a $25MM guarantee despite having thrown only six innings since Opening Day 2020, so there’s little reason to accept that he’d take a year and $25MM on the heels of a healthy return effort at Minute Maid Park.

Noah Syndergaard: Perhaps it’s not quite fair to label Syndergaard as a Tommy John rehabber; after all, he did make it back to the mound with the Mets late in the 2021 season — albeit for only two innings. That said, this is Thor’s first full season back from that ligament replacement procedure, and he’ll be pitching for a big contract next winter from the moment he suits up in Orange County. Signed by the Angels to a one-year, $21MM contract, Syndergaard will be pitching with a team other than the Mets for the first time in his big league career.

It’s a hefty price to pay, particularly considering the fact that Syndergaard had rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer, but his career to date is all the evidence needed to suggest that at his best, Syndergaard is plenty worth that gamble. He’s never walked more than 6.1% of his opponents in a given season and has never failed to strike out a batter per inning. Few pitchers can match Syndergaard’s blend of pure velocity, missed bats and impeccable command, and he manages all that while still turning in a ground-ball rate that’s well higher than the league average.

Syndergaard has always felt like he’s one step away from solidifying himself as a bona fide ace, and as Robbie Ray showed in winning the AL Cy Young Award this season, one dominant season for a player with this type of track record can result in a nine-figure payday if things break right. The market has already proven to value Syndergaard at more than $20MM per year, and given that he’d be 30 years old in 2023, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that he’s pitching for a $100MM contract this season.

Luis Severino: As with Syndergaard, Severino may not quite fit the criteria for this list. The 27-year-old (28 later this week, on the same day Verlander turns 39) returned to give the Yankees six innings out of the bullpen late in the 2021 season, and his protracted absence from the team’s pitching staff cannot be solely attributed to Tommy John surgery. Severino has also battled groin, shoulder and lat injuries along the way. That said, Severino really hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery in Feb. 2020, and it’s that operation that is the primary reason for his absence over the past two seasons.

Severino isn’t yet slated to hit the open market at season’s end — at least not before the Yankees make a call on a $15MM club option or a $2.75MM buyout. The resulting $12.25MM net decision would be a straightforward one for general manager Brian Cashman if Severino at all looks like his former self. From 2017-18, Severino gave the Yankees 384 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball with outstanding strikeout and walk rates, prompting the team to sign him to a four-year contract extension that promised him $40MM.

That deal looked like a bargain for the team at the time but has since gone south, due largely to repeated injury woes. Severino made a combined 63 regular-season starts for the Yankees in 2017-18, looking every bit like a foundational piece to the pitching staff, but he’s combined for just 25 starts and another 18 relief appearances in the five seasons surrounding that brilliant run.

With a big season in 2022, Severino could still see that $15MM option picked up, and if he can remain healthy into 2023, he’d hit the open market heading into his age-30 season. There’s a long way to go before that scenario becomes reality, however.

Relievers

Tommy Kahnle: Signed by the Dodgers to a two-year, $4.75MM contract last offseason, Kahnle was never expected to contribute in 2021 — hence the backloaded nature of his contract, which will pay him $3.45MM in 2022. The hard-throwing righty only managed one inning for the 2020 Yankees, meaning this coming season will be the first since 2019 in which he’ll potentially pitch anything resembling a full workload.

The 32-year-old Kahnle has been inconsistent but has dominated more often than he’s struggled. From 2016-20, he logged a combined 3.48 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate while averaging 97.1 mph on his heater. That includes a disastrous but also fluky-looking 2018 campaign in which he was tattooed for a 6.56 ERA in 23 1/3 frames. From 2016-20, Kahnle’s 32.9% strikeout rate ranks 17th among the 155 relievers to have thrown at least 150 innings, while his 15.9% swinging-strike rate is tied for sixth.

Kahnle’s Tommy John surgery came way back on Aug. 5, 2020, so there should be no restrictions on him by the time the season gets underway. He’ll be heading into his age-33 season next winter, and a return to his vintage form should position him as one of the top relievers on a free-agent market that is lacking in big-name right-handed relievers.

Ken Giles: Like Kahnle, Giles was signed by the Mariners — two years, $7MM — knowing full well that he would not pitch in 2021. Unlike Kahnle, his contract includes a club option for the 2023 season, which is valued at $9.5MM (with a $500K buyout).

Many of the same superlatives that apply to Kahnle apply even more so to Giles. His 18% swinging-strike rate, for instance, tops Kahnle and sits third among the 155 relievers who totaled at least 150 frames from 2016-20. His 3.33 ERA in that time is a bit more toward the middle of the pack, but Giles misses bats, induces chases outside the zone and throws as hard as nearly any reliever in the sport. He’s had a pair of 4.00-something ERAs sprinkled in amid a series of pristine marks throughout his big league career. Those two blemishes have coincided with spikes in his average on balls in play and dips in his strand rate.

On the whole, Giles is a power arm who can pile up strikeouts in droves. He’s a sometimes forgotten piece of the puzzle when looking at the 2022 Mariners and their hopes of contending, but he’ll join a deep bullpen mix that also features Diego Castillo, 2021 breakout closer Paul Sewald, former Marlins stopped Drew Steckenrider (who enjoyed a tremendous rebound in 2021) and the underappreciated Casey Sadler, who notched a 0.67 ERA in 40 1/3 innings last year.

A healthy Giles would very likely see that $9.5MM club option for the 2023 season picked up, and at his best, he’s a bargain at that price. If Giles is pitching well but things go south for the Mariners, teams will come calling at the trade deadline. Of course, the Mariners are hoping to be squarely in the postseason mix, and they’re likely not done with their offseason shopping just yet.

Jose Leclerc: Armed with a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, Leclerc’s ability to return to form (or his lack thereof) will have major implications for the Rangers moving forward. His four-year, $14.75MM contract extension includes a $6MM club option for the 2023 season and a $6.25MM option for the 2024 season. A rebound effort makes that 2023 option a no-brainer for the Rangers to pick up as they hope to ride a hyper-aggressive offseason into their next competitive window.

Leclerc, 28, has fanned just shy of a third of the hitters he’s faced so far in his big league career and has only allowed a dozen homers in 189 Major League innings (0.57 HR/9). His 14.9% walk rate is far too high, but he looked to be making considerable strides in that department in 2019 when he posted a sub-2.00 ERA, a 38.1% strikeout rate and an 11.2% walk rate. He’ll be a highly intriguing lottery ticket on next year’s market if he pitches poorly enough that the Rangers buy that option out (or if they do so on the heels of another injury). If he rebounds, he’ll be a bargain piece of an on-the-rise Rangers club in 2023-24.

Mariners Rumors: Chapman, Marte, Trammell, Rotation

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The Mariners’ interest in division-rival third baseman (and noted trade candidate) Matt Chapman isn’t exactly a new revelation, but even as the Athletics prepare for what looks to be a significant sell-off/payroll reduction, they’re still aiming high in trade talks. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times cites multiple sources who believe the A’s would ask that the Mariners include top infield prospect Noelvi Marte as a headline piece in any deal involving Chapman, who is controlled another two years via arbitration.

Baseball America ranked Marte as the sport’s No. 18 prospect earlier this week, and it’s not hard to see why; Marte played the 2021 season as a 19-year-old against much older competition but nevertheless slashed a combined .273/.366/.460 with 17 home runs and 24 stolen bases between two Class-A levels. Drawing praise for his blend of raw power and speed, Marte has played exclusively at shortstop thus far in his pro career, though he’s been error-prone (6o in 1402 innings) and some scouting reports question whether he might eventually move to third base. The Athletics and other clubs would surely target him in a number of trade scenarios, but it seems unlikely Marte would actually change hands.

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has already gone on record this offseason to indicate there’s “no scenario” where he’d move the very top names in his farm system. Marte trails uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez on most rankings, he certainly falls under the umbrella alluded to by Dipoto. The A’s could, of course, try to work out a deal centering on another headliner, but if Dipoto was being earnest in his reluctance to trade his system’s very best, an agreement could be hard to piece together.

Some more Mariners notes…

  • In a second piece, Divish looks at three Mariners whose long-term positions with the team aren’t assured: outfielder Taylor Trammell, catcher Luis Torrens and outfielder Jake Fraley. Despite Trammell’s status as a former high draft pick and top prospect, last season’s poor big league debut has dimmed his stock in the eyes of rival scouts. Divish cites one “optimistic” scout from another club who believes Trammell can still be more than a fourth outfielder — but others are more bearish based on his approach at the plate and some poor defensive reads. Similarly, while the Mariners believe Torrens can be a passable or better defender behind the plate, other teams are more skeptical of his glovework. Any of the trio would still have some value on the trade market, but probably not as headline pieces for notable upgrades. Mariners fans, in particular, will want to check out both Divish columns for some scouting quotes and opinions of several of Seattle’s young players.
  • In his latest mailbag column, The Athletic’s Corey Brock tackles a number of pertinent Mariners topics — including the team’s rotation. Brock suggests that Seattle, needing pitchers who can make an impact out of the gate, was never going to come close to matching the $10MM offer James Paxton received from the Red Sox. Still, the Mariners appear likely to target another arm to add to the rotation — ideally someone who’s more than just a fifth starter to round out the group. The free-agent market has, of course, been largely picked over by this point — with Seattle playing a key part in the pre-lockout signing rush (Robbie Ray). Carlos Rodon stands out as one potential difference-maker who remains in play, though he has not been prominently linked to the Mariners. The trade market figures to have plenty of options, with Cincinnati (Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle) and Oakland (Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt) standing as the two most obvious partners for any team seeking rotation help on the trade market.

Red Sox Sign James Paxton

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The Red Sox continue to bolster their rotation, announcing agreement on a deal with James Paxton. It’s a one-year guarantee that also contains a club option that covers both the 2023-24 seasons. According to reports, Paxton will receive a $6MM salary in 2022. After next season, the club can choose to exercise a pair of options valued at $13MM apiece for the following two campaigns. If the team declines their end of the deal, Paxton would have the right to exercise a $4MM player option for 2023. Altogether, it’s a $10MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client that could pay him $32MM if the team exercises the options.

Paxton is coming off a pair of lost seasons. Injuries limited him to five starts in 2020, his final campaign with the Yankees. The Mariners brought Paxton back on a buy-low $8.5MM guarantee. Unfortunately, the big southpaw blew out his elbow in the second inning of his first start of 2021. He underwent Tommy John surgery in April, the second such procedure of his career.

It’s not known when Paxton will be ready to return, but he’s almost certain to begin next season on the injured list. Tommy John procedures typically require a twelve to fourteen month recovery. That general area would seem to suggest a mid-summer return for Paxton, although it’s not clear precisely where he stands in recovery.

The Sox are surely hoping Paxton will be able to contribute at some point down the stretch next season, with the power lefty ideally serving as a boost to a potential playoff run. At his best, the Canadian hurler is certainly capable of being an impact member of a club’s rotation. Paxton pitched to a 3.54 ERA over 447 innings between 2017-19, striking out a massive 30.1% of batters faced while walking only 7.3% of opponents. That’s the kind of hurler to whom teams would feel comfortable giving playoff starts, and the Boston front office is rolling the dice on him regaining some of that form.

Were Paxton to pick up where he left off in 2019, he could be a long-term play for the Red Sox. Boston picks up some additional upside in the form of the option, a two-year consideration they’ll have to decide upon next winter. It’s a single provision that, if exercised, would guarantee Paxton’s salaries for both 2023 and 2024.

It’s a risk/reward play for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff. Boston’s incumbent rotation already looked to be one of the higher-variance units around the league. Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi have both looked like top-of-the-rotation arms at their best — Sale’s one of the best pitchers of this generation, of course — but come with questions about their health. Nick Pivetta has huge stuff but a spotty track record at the big league level. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock both impressed in 2021 but come with starter/relief questions. Paxton’s addition further raises that group’s ceiling, but he’s not the kind of reliable innings-eating type one could argue Boston still needs as a stabilizer.

Chad Dey of Sportsnet first reported Paxton was in agreement with the Red Sox. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first with the $10MM guarantee, as well as the presence of the 2023-24 club option. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported the option could bring the value of the deal as high as $35MM. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported the presence of the player option and specific terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

James Paxton Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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APRIL 28: Paxton underwent Tommy John surgery in the past five to seven days, Servais announced (via Brock).

APRIL 13: Servais confirmed today that Paxton will undergo season-ending surgery (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Corey Brock). Servais did not specify the procedure, only that it would be season-ending elbow surgery.

APRIL 10: Paxton hasn’t yet decided on surgery and will seek a second opinion on his injury, Mariners manager Scott Servais told reporters (including MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer).

APRIL 8: Tommy John surgery has been recommended for Mariners left-hander James Paxton, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. If Paxton undergoes the procedure, he’ll miss the rest of this season and at least some portion of the 2022 campaign.

Paxton began his career with the Mariners, who used a fourth-round pick on him in 2010, though after spending 2013-18 in their uniform, they traded him to the Yankees. But Paxton, 32, returned to Seattle in free agency this past offseason on a one-year, $8.5MM deal. Unfortunately, the Big Maple exited his first (and potentially lone) start of 2021 on Tuesday because of forearm troubles. The Mariners then placed Paxton on the 10-day injured list.

While Paxton has typically pitched well in the majors, evidenced by his 3.59 ERA/3.62 SIERA over 137 appearances (all starts) and 754 2/3 innings, various injuries have haunted him since he entered the league in 2013. He has never thrown more than 160 1/3 innings in an individual season, and he totaled just 20 1/3 frames last year while dealing with back issues and a flexor strain. The Yankees then elected against bringing Paxton back, though he did draw substantial interest from teams on the open market before returning to the Mariners. It doesn’t appear the reunion will be fruitful for either side, however.

The Mariners entered the season with Paxton as a key part of their six-man rotation, but it looks as if they will have to make other plans for the rest of the year. At least for now, Nick Margevicius will take Paxton’s spot in the M’s starting staff, complementing Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi, Justus Sheffield, Chris Flexen and Justin Dunn.

Mariners Place James Paxton, Jake Fraley On Injured List

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12:35pm: The Mariners announced that Paxton and Fraley have both been placed on the 10-day injured list. Paxton has been diagnosed with a left forearm strain, while the MRI confirmed a hamstring strain for Fraley. The Mariners recalled outfielder Braden Bishop and righty Ljay Newsome from their alternate training site to take their spots on the roster.

8:22am: James Paxton returned to the Mariners’ rotation last night after two years in the Bronx, but his start was cut short by another forearm injury, as he exited after just 1 1/3 innings. Outfielder Jake Fraley, meanwhile, left the game with what the team later announced as a hamstring strain after making a diving catch in left field. Both players will undergo an MRI this morning, manager Scott Servais told reporters after the game (via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

Paxton’s 2020 season with the Yankees was cut short by a forearm strain, so it’s obviously a concerning development for him to suffer this type of injury — particularly so early in the season. The lefty did tell Divish and others that the pain he’s feeling in his arm isn’t at the same level as it was when he sustained that injury last summer.

The Mariners brought Paxton back to the organization on a one-year, $8.5MM free agent deal over the winter. The 32-year-old had interest from several teams, as one would expect based on his track record of success, but he seemingly preferred to return to Seattle. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto noted at the time of the signing that Paxton had been sharp in workouts for MLB teams and gave the club something of a “hometown discount.”

The reunion looked to be going well in Spring Training, where Paxton struck out half of the 34 batters he faced and allowed just one run during Cactus League play. For the time being, he struck an optimistic tone that the current issue could be muscular in nature and something from which he can quickly return.

As for Fraley, the 25-year-old is out to an unusual start to his 2021 season. He’s just 1-for-10 through five games, but he’s drawn eight walks and been hit by a pitch, leading to a bizarre .100/.500/.200 batting line through his first 19 plate appearances. Acquired from the Rays as part of the Mike Zunino trade, Fraley hasn’t hit much in two prior stints with the Mariners in 2019-20, but he only tallied 70 plate appearances during that time. He’s a career .286/.362/.480 hitter in the minors — including a .276/.333/.553 showing in 38 Triple-A games.

For the moment, however, it seems that an IL stint could be on the horizon, which will have the baseball world watching intently. The most straightforward move for the M’s would simply be to recall Braden Bishop from their alternate site, as he’s on the 40-man roster already, but Seattle also has top prospect Jarred Kelenic on the cusp of his first big league promotion as well.

Kelenic’s service time status was thrust into the national spotlight when now-former CEO Kevin Mather blatantly indicated in a Q&A with the Bellevue Rotary Club that the 21-year-old Kelenic had turned down an extension offer and wouldn’t be called to the Majors until mid-April (the general point at which the Mariners would gain an extra year of control over Kelenic). Kelenic missed some time in Spring Training with a minor knee injury, but he returned to the lineup and immediately went 3-for-6 with a double and a homer in two games before being reassigned to minor league camp, so the injury looks to be behind him.

It still seems likelier that the Mariners will turn to Bishop for the time being, as calling up Kelenic now would still give him enough time to accrue a full year of Major League service in 2021. That would no longer be the case as soon as next weekend, however.

Turning back to the pitching staff, the Mariners were already using a six-man rotation, so it’s likely they’ll simply shorten up to five starters for the time being and carry an extra reliever. The bullpen had to cover 7 2/3 innings last night and took a beating at the hands of the White Sox in the process, so Seattle would probably prefer to get a fresh arm into the relief mix anyhow.

It’s at least worth noting that as with the Fraley/Kelenic situation, the Mariners have a highly regarded pitching prospect who is near MLB readiness: 2018 first-rounder Logan Gilbert. While this comment didn’t draw as much attention as the Kelenic revelation, Mather indicated in that same interview that he expected Gilbert to be pitching in the Majors by mid-April (obviously, an allusion to his service time). Gilbert, however, only tossed a pair of innings in Spring Training before being reassigned to minor league camp, so he may not yet be built up to the point where he’s an option even in the event that Paxton is shelved for a notable period of time. If the Mariners want to stick with a six-man rotation and Paxton does miss some time, they could give a few starts to Ljay Newsome and/or Nick Margevicius. Before too long, however, Gilbert seems likely to emerge as an option at the big league level.

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