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Odds & Ends: Oeltjen, Hensley, Gload, Halladay

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Links for Friday, as team execs and media folk pack their bags for Monday's Winter Meetings in Indianapolis…

  • The Brewers signed Trent Oeltjen to a minor league deal, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy.  Oeltjen, 27 in February, hit .303/.362/.500 in his third Triple A tour, playing the outfield corners.
  • Brewers assistant GM Gord Ash spells out why his team won't be acquiring Roy Halladay, talking to McCalvy.
  • MLB.com's Joe Frisaro tweets six minor league free agents signed by the Marlins, including Jesse Foppert, Vinny Rottino, and Hector Luna.
  • The Pirates expressed "mild interest" in free agent pitcher Clay Hensley, according to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.  Hensley, 30, spent the year at Triple A in the Astros and Marlins organizations, posting a 3.56 ERA in 124 innings.
  • Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post feels there's "still a good chance [Ross] Gload returns [to the Marlins] with a two-year deal."
  • Darren Dreifort's five-year, $55MM deal tops Jeff Passan's list of the ten worst contracts of the 2000s for Yahoo.
  • Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues explains why the Yankees probably won't sign Rafael Soriano.
  • In his Winter Meetings preview for AOL FanHouse, Ed Price says there was some discussion about a Tigers-Diamondbacks trade involving Edwin Jackson and Max Scherzer.
  • ESPN's Buster Olney talked to rival executives who say the Tigers have not aggressively shopped Curtis Granderson.
  • Olney doesn't think the Mariners will pay up for Jason Bay.  He believes the Red Sox are "controlling the market" for Bay and Matt Holliday.
  • Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Cardinals are "increasingly weighing spreading what it would cost to retain Holliday over several players."  Bernie Miklasz of the P-D feels the Cards are "enacting their exit strategy from the Holliday sweepstakes."  I would not be surprised to see the Cardinals make their best offer soon - let's say $110MM over six years – and entirely move on if Scott Boras rejects it.
  • SI's Jon Heyman tweets that Nick Johnson is "drawing interest from the Giants, maybe Braves, and a half-dozen more."
  • MLB.com's Corey Brock talked to former Padres GM Kevin Towers, who will meet with the Mets, Yankees, Mariners, and Red Sox at the Winter Meetings.
  • ESPN's Keith Law isn't impressed with the Phillies' Placido Polanco signing.  My initial impression upon hearing about the signing is that no other team would've valued Polanco that highly.
  • MLB.com's Joe Frisaro tweets that other teams have been more aggressive on Jamey Carroll than the Marlins.  Other Carroll suitors include the Rockies, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, A's, Rangers, Pirates, Reds and Indians.

Mariners Pushing For Jason Bay

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The Mariners are making a "concerted push" for free agent left fielder Jason Bay, according to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times. We've seen the Mariners linked to the Canadian before, but this is the first indication that they've intensified their pursuit.

The Mariners were an excellent defensive team last year, but appear willing to tolerate below-average defense from Bay as long as he hits. Bay would cost the Mariners their 18th overall pick in next year's draft.

This is the second time in as many days that we've seen the Mariners linked to a British Columbia native. The team is also interested in righty Rich Harden, according to FOX Sports.

Bay's agent, Joe Urbon, told WEEI.com earlier in the week that he expects his client to remain in contact with the Red Sox.

Brown On Bay, Kennedy, Crosby

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One assistant GM tells Yahoo's Tim Brown that this year's free agent class is "a whole bunch of schlock" compared to next year's. Here are Brown's latest rumors:

  • At least one agent expects many free agents to be overpaid this offseason, because the free agent class is relatively weak.
  • Some Red Sox officials prefer Jason Bay to Matt Holliday because Bay has proven himself in the AL East.
  • The agent for Adam Kennedy and Bobby Crosby says both infielders have attracted interest from about six teams. We know the Red Sox are interersted.

Red Sox Rumors: Bay, Scutaro, Lackey, Bedard

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Red Sox rumors from ESPN's Gordon Edes…

  • Edes talked to Jason Bay's agent Joe Urbon, who indicated the timing of Bay's signing won't be affected by Matt Holliday.  Edes' team source says Bay remains Boston's top target.
  • Edes says Marco Scutaro "almost certainly remains at the top of Boston's list" at shortstop.  Scutaro's agent Peter Greenberg left open the possibility of his client signing before Monday's Winter Meetings.
  • One of Edes' Red Sox sources says John Lackey is not a target.
  • We knew of Boston's interest in Rich Harden and Kelvim Escobar, and Edes adds that the Sox are eyeing Erik Bedard.  Edes talked to Escobar's agent (also Greenberg) and learned that Boston is "at or near the top of" his client's list.  The righty plans to pitch in winter ball.  Escobar had labrum surgery in July of 2008.

Strong Possibility Of Bradley-Burrell Swap?

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A Milton Bradley–Pat Burrell swap is still a "strong possibility," according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  Sherman notes that since Burrell is owed $9MM over one year and Bradley $21MM over two, the Cubs would have to eat good money (he guesses $6MM) to make the trade work.

There is no question that the Cubs would have to flip Burrell in this scenario.  Sherman speculates that they could offer him to the Mets for Luis Castillo, a player the Cubs wouldn't mind adding.  Sherman says, "It is hard to find a baseball official who actually thinks the Mets are going to land either Jason Bay or Matt Holliday," though ESPN's Buster Olney found one today in regard to Holliday.

My guess is that the Cubs would prefer to get a more usable piece than Burrell for Bradley.  Acquiring Burrell increases uncertainty and drags out the process.  Acquiring another bad contract more directly, someone they can use in center field, the rotation, or second base, would be ideal. 

Red Sox To Offer Arb To Bay, Wagner

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8:58 PM CST: The Red Sox just sent a press release officially announcing the arbitration offers.

7:22 PM CST: Amalie Benjamin of the Boston Globe confirms (via Twitter) that the offers to Bay and Wagner have been made.

6:09 PM CST: Red Sox president Larry Lucchino told The Providence Journal's Dan Barbarisi that the club will be offering arbitration to Type A free agents Billy Wagner and Jason Bay.  Lucchino said the offers would be officially sent out by tonight's 11:59 PM deadline, if they hadn't been sent already.

Neither move is a surprise, given that Boston stands to recoup as many as four extra draft picks should both players sign with other teams.

Do Red Sox Prefer Holliday Over Bay?

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3:34pm: Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says Bay is still a top priority for the Red Sox, who are "trying to build on" their rejected $60MM offer.  Cafardo says that offer was over five years, though most have reported it to be over four.

8:30am: How much do you trust the information of "one rival executive?"  Such a source makes for the basis of the latest blog post from Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  This exec told the FOX writers that the Red Sox prefer Matt Holliday over Jason Bay, and do not intend to re-sign Bay despite ongoing negotiations.

The writers go on to explain that the Red Sox would stand to gain a draft pick by signing Holliday instead of Bay.  They'd lose their #29 pick to the Cardinals by signing Holliday, but would get a pick back from the team that signs Bay and would also receive a supplemental pick.  Furthermore, the writers believe Bay will not be signed by a team with a protected first-round pick (such as the Mets). 

Olney On Halladay, Wagner, Bay

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In his ESPN.com column today, Buster Olney notes that many teams are waiting to get involved in the free agent market, meaning there might not be many moves made in the next couple weeks. Here are a few other highlights from Olney's blog:

  • One executive tells Olney that the Blue Jays' chances of moving Roy Halladay are no better than 50/50. Another source suggests that the Jays could have had three top prospects for Halladay last summer, whereas now they could probably only land one star prospect and a second with some major-league potential.
  • Billy Wagner's Type A status could make him undesirable to clubs not wanting to give up any draft picks to sign him. However, Wagner could make himself more attractive by lowering his contract demands. If a team thought they were getting a potentially elite closer at a discount, they'd be more willing to part with a draft pick.
  • Olney hears from a pair of execs that the Red Sox will continue to take the Jason Bay negotiations slowly, and that the team would ultimately prefer to sign Matt Holliday.
  • The Padres likely won't want to pay Kevin Correia a raise through arbitration. The team will try to work out a "moderate-sized deal" with him, and if they can't do it, the right-hander could be non-tendered.
  • Olney reiterates what he wrote in yesterday's blog: it doesn't seem like Adrian Gonzalez is going anywhere.
  • Randy Wolf has received plenty of interest from teams looking at starting pitching.

Red Sox Express Interest In Scutaro, Escobar, And More

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Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald says the Red Sox have kicked the tires on many free agents already, with Marco Scutaro and Kelvim Escobar the newest names.  Others include Rafael Soriano, Matt Holliday, Rick Ankiel, Adrian Beltre, John Lackey, Aroldis Chapman, Billy Wagner, Mike Gonzalez, Alex Gonzalez, and, of course, Jason Bay.  Silverman cautions that not all names connected to the Red Sox have "enduring news value."

Scutaro certainly makes sense for Boston; he's the best available shortstop, considering both the free agent and trade market.  We ranked Scutaro the eighth-best free agent overall, perhaps a reflection of a weaker market this year.  It'd be nice to see Scutaro sign with the Red Sox, as we'd get at least one of our 50 predictions right. 

Aside from committing a multiyear contract to Scutaro, the Sox might have to surrender their #29 pick in the June 2010 draft to the Blue Jays.  Looking at the Elias numbers, it is possible that the Jays get screwed out of a first-rounder again, as they did losing A.J. Burnett last year (of course, the Jays failed to sign James Paxton anyway).  If the Red Sox sign Scutaro and any of Soriano, Gonzalez, Holliday, or Lackey, the Braves, Cardinals, or Angels would get Boston's #29 pick instead and the Jays would get their second-rounder (assuming arbitration is offered to those players).

As Silverman notes, Escobar would fit right in with the John Smoltz/Brad Penny signings of last year.  Those two bombed, but here's the question – what kind of success rate should the Red Sox expect from these one-year pitcher gambles?  It is OK if one out of five works out?

Odds & Ends: Dye, Pettitte, Bay, Yankees, Mauer

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Some links to start the day…

  • Yesterday we heard that Jermaine Dye was open to playing first base, and Jack Moore at FanGraphs determines that unless he takes a massive paycut, Dye's still not worth taking the spot of a prospect. 
  • Andy Pettitte isn't expected to make his decision about a 2010 return anytime soon, according to Mark Feinsand of The NY Daily News.
  • FoxSports.com's Tracy Ringolsby runs down the ten biggest free agency blunders. I have to disagree that the Dodgers are better off with Juan Pierre in left instead of Manny Ramirez, what about you?
  • Cathal Kelly of The Toronto Star says there is a "school of thought" that the Blue Jays could be a surprise suitor for Jason Bay, who is Canadian. The move could ease some fan anger should they trade Roy Halladay.
  • After last year's spending spree, Yankees GM Brian Cashman said  "We're not going to spend as much this year," according to The NY Post's Dan Martin. Maybe he means they can afford only one nine-figure contract instead of two this offseason.
  • Charley Walters of The Pioneer Press notes that playing on the East Coast could result in enormous endorsement opportunities for Joe Mauer, something he'd have to consider before agreeing to an extension with the Twins.
  • A's majority owner John Fisher and minority owner Lew Wolff reinforced their desire to build a new ballpark in downtown San Jose, reports Joe Stiglich of The Contra Costa Times.  
  • The Boston Herald provides a nice little primer for the AL East hot stove.
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