Cafardo’s Latest: Red Sox, Upton, Minaya, Saito
After extending Adrian Gonzalez this week, the Red Sox have guaranteed nearly $300MM to their two big offseason acquisitions, Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. However, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, some baseball people feel that Jayson Werth would have made more sense for the Sox than Crawford. One AL GM says he's "not sure that many of us are unhappy they chose Crawford over Werth," adding that Werth seemed to be a better fit for Boston's lefty-heavy lineup. Here are the rest of the highlights from Cafardo's Sunday Notes:
- The Red Sox may not have even been in on Crawford or Werth this winter if they had re-signed Jason Bay a year earlier. A National League GM calls Bay leaving Boston "one of the worst decisions both by a team and by the player," suggesting that both sides miss each other.
- According to Cafardo, Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers was willing to deal Justin Upton to the Red Sox in the offseason, but only if he got the Adrian Gonzalez package or Clay Buchholz in return.
- Several teams have spoken to Omar Minaya about potential job openings. Minaya, who dubs himself a "free agent," says he's still sorting through everything and searching for the best fit, but he could make a decision soon.
- Cafardo points out that spending time on the disabled list could cost Takashi Saito a good chunk of money this season. Currently on the shelf with a hamstring injury, Saito can earn up to five $100K bonuses based on time spent on the active roster.
Mets Notes: Alderson, Reyes, Dickey, Dessens
The Mets have settled with all of their arbitration-eligible players but that isn't the only news out of Citi Field today. The latest…
- ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin has the transcript of GM Sandy Alderson's conference call with media today. The Mets' payroll will be between $140-$150MM next season, a total Alderson said "is significantly higher than we'd like to be on an annual basis."
- Alderson said he isn't troubled about the recent news that the Wilpons want to sell a minority share of the club: "I'm not surprised by this development just because the Madoff situation was a backdrop to the Mets, and well-known backdrop. My enthusiasm and energy for this position and my confidence in the future of the Mets is undiminished."
- Along those same lines, Alderson said "perhaps naively," he doesn't think the ownership situation will impact negotiations with Jose Reyes on a contract extension. Fangraphs' Paul Swydan figures the trade market for Reyes will be very busy this summer if the Mets decide to deal the shortstop rather than re-sign him.
- R.A. Dickey will earn $2.25MM in 2011, $4.25MM in 2012 and received a $1MM signing bonus for his extension, reports Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger (Twitter link). The contract also includes a club option for 2013 worth $5MM.
- Elmer Dessens wants to pitch next season but it apparently won't be for the Mets, reports Adam Rubin. The Mets told Dessens they're "going in another direction." The right-hander told the team he was willing to sign a minor league deal to return, a reversal of his stance from earlier this winter when Dessens implied he would retire unless he got a Major League contract.
- Jason Bay talks to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick about his disappointing 2010 season and how he's looking to rebound next year.
Mets Notes: Collins, Wright, Davis, Bay, K-Rod
The Mets formally introduced Terry Collins as their new manager today. Here's the latest on Collins and the team he'll take over (all links go to Twitter):
- Collins' deal runs through 2012 with an option for 2013, according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson told Jim Bowden of Siruis XM Radio that the Mets don't have untouchables, but aren't likely to trade David Wright, Ike Davis or Jason Bay.
- Alderson also said the Mets could spend over-slot on the draft if necessary.
- The Mets expect Francisco Rodriguez to be the closer in 2011, Alderson told Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. K-Rod has a 2012 option that vests based on games finished and health, but Alderson says that won't affect the way the team handles him.
Mets Notes: Myers, Bay, Tatis, Francoeur
Some notes from the Big Apple's NL representative…
- Buster Olney of ESPN.com tweets that Brett Myers is one of the pitchers that the Mets "are considering" in trade options. As MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith noted in his look at the trade market for starters, Myers' solid numbers and reasonable contract will draw the eyes of several teams, but he must particularly intrigue New York due to his experience pitching in the NL East. Myers has an $8MM mutual option for next season that can be bought out for $2MM.
- Jason Bay talks about his underwhelming season with Steve Popper of The Bergen Record.
- Popper also tweeted that Fernando Tatis' shoulder surgery on Wednesday might hasten the end of Tatis' career. The veteran utilityman has a career .265/.344/.442 line and his versatility has helped the Mets given their multitude of injuries over the last few seasons.
- ESPN The Magazine's Matt Meyers thinks New York should give up on Jeff Francoeur.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Hoffman, Bay, Markakis
On this date back in 2004, Alex Rodriguez returned to Texas to play the Rangers for the first time since being traded (along with $71MM) to the Yankees for Alfonso Soriano and Joaquin Arias. He was booed loudly just like every other road game of his career, though he silenced the home crowd – at least temporarily – with a two-run homer in the first inning.
Here are a few links from around the baseball blogosphere…
- Disciples of Uecker thinks it's time for Trevor Hoffman to call it a career.
- Mets Merized wants to know what happened to Jason Bay's power.
- Meanwhile, Camden Crazies looks at Nick Markakis' lack of pop.
- The Kept Faith says that it's time for the Oscar Salazar era to end in San Diego.
- Nick's Twins Blog isn't sure if Jesse Crain can right the ship.
- Yankeeist wonders if Marcus Thames will be able to replace the injured Nick Johnson.
- The Friarhood examines some players the Padres could select in next month's amateur draft.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Are Lackey, Bay Cause For Worry?
Leave it to some who follow the Red Sox and Mets to worry prematurely about their big acquisitions, John Lackey and Jason Bay.
In the case of Lackey, he probably quieted some of the criticism with his seven innings against the Angels Wednesday night, allowing just one run. Meanwhile, Bay's struggles haven't yet abated. Should either fan base be worried? Did the Red Sox waste $82.5MM on Lackey, and the Mets blow $66MM on Bay? There's certainly not enough evidence to think so, and the guess here is that in the short-term, neither team will be sorry.
Let's start with Lackey. In his first 37 innings, he's pitched to a decent 3.89 ERA, and really, that reflects one poor start. Take that start out, and he has five quality starts in five outings, with a 2.14 ERA. He's gone seven innings in each of his last three starts. The only thing that could cause concern is that he's struck out just 21 in those 37 innings. That is a rate of just 5.1 per nine innings, well off of his pace from last season, when he fanned 7.1 per nine. But take a look at Lackey's first six starts from 2009. He posted a 6.61 ERA, and even his strikeout rate was just 5.2 per nine. It then jumped to a robust 7.5 per nine over his final 21 starts, along with a 3.23 ERA in those contests.
So it is entirely too soon to worry about Lackey. But what about Bay?
The numbers have been pretty ugly so far. Bay is hitting just .238/.345/.376 in his first 119 plate appearances as a Met. And it isn't like he's been particularly hit-unlucky, with a .338 batting average on balls in play in 2010, above his career BABIP of .327. He's walking and striking out about as much as he did in 2009, and is actually hitting more line drives this year than last year. So is it simply that Bay lost all of his power? Unlikely. It simply appears this streaky hitter is in a slump.
It went less noticed last year because of his strong start, but Bay had a remarkably similar period in his 2009 season. From June 3 to July 31, 2009, Bay hit .214/.349/.341, with just four home runs in 212 plate appearances over that time. However, he balanced that out with 222 plate appearances from the start of the season to June 2 hitting .286/.410/.632, and finished the season from August 1 on with 204 plate appearances of .301/.392/.631 hitting.
Most likely, Mets fans will feel awfully silly about Bay fretting once he goes on this type of extended tear. And fortunately for the Mets, the concerns about his defense have largely proven to be unfounded so far, with Bay hovering right around average in left field.
In short, there are things for both the Red Sox and Mets to worry about. But John Lackey and Jason Bay aren't it.
Odds & Ends: Rosario, Red Sox, Bernazard, Storen
Links for Tuesday….
- Baseball America's Ben Badler tweets that the Red Sox have signed speedy 17-year-old outfielder Roberto Rosario from the upstart Dominican Prospect League for $150K.
- The Red Sox might be in a terrific position to take advantage of the Ryan Howard contract fallout, says Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal.
- FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal interviewed former Mets' executive Tony Bernazard, who was fired last year. It's a very interested read, give it a look.
- MASNSports.com's Ben Goessling explores the financial savings the Nationals could enjoy if they delay calling up Drew Storen.
- Meanwhile, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro says the Marlins aren't going rush Mike Stanton to the big leagues.
- Dusty Baker denied a report that the Reds turned down extension talks, tweets John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer.
- Didn't get enough Ryan Howard extension reactions yesterday? Not to worry, there are plenty more pundits weighing in today. ESPN.com's Buster Olney says that many baseball people now feel that Howard, "a star in his prime," is overpriced, and the Phillies might regret the contract long before it expires. ESPN.com's Keith Law agrees, writing that he laughed when he heard the news. Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer says the contract may be an overpay but it represents "the cost of doing business," and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com says the Phils had to either pony up for Howard or risk letting him walk after 2011.
- Meanwhile, USA Today's Bob Nightengale suggests Howard's deal could be the beginning of a slew of mammoth contracts for baseball's sluggers.
- John Tomase of the Boston Herald notes that modifications in Fangraphs' UZR model make Jason Bay's defense look a whole lot better. Fangraphs' latest UZR update included adjustments for specific ballparks like Fenway, and improved Bay's 2009 UZR from -13.8 to +1.9. As Tomase indicates, Bay and his agent probably would've liked that change made before Bay signed his four-year deal this winter.
- Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Giants have discussed promoting Buster Posey earlier than June.
- In his MLB.com blog, MSNBC's Keith Olbermann speculates on who would be next in line for each managerial job in both the National League and American League.
- Also at MLB.com, Peter Gammons has a column up that addresses a few intriguing what-if questions, including what could have happened if the Red Sox had acquired either Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira.
Revisiting The Manny Ramirez, Jason Bay Trade
It's been nearly 20 months since the Red Sox, Dodgers, and Pirates completed the three-team blockbuster that sent Manny Ramirez to Los Angeles, Jason Bay to Boston, and four prospects to Pittsburgh. Alex Speier of WEEI.com spoke to Pirates' GM Neal Huntington about the trade, who noted that the book is still out on their end of the deal.
Here are the highlights, but the whole article is well worth the read…
- Huntington suggests the Pirates now believe that they had a better offer on the table for Bay than the one they ultimately accepted, though it's not fair to look back using hindsight. The Marlins and Rays were both rumored to be interested at the time.
- He also recognizes that he might have received a better package if he waited until the offseason to deal Bay.
- If the deal had not been made, the Red Sox were unsure about how to proceed with Manny's $20MM club option for 2009, and it was unclear if they would have been willing to risk offering him arbitration to recoup draft pick compensation.
- They were, however, confident in offering Jason Bay arbitration at the time of the trade.
- Meanwhile, the two players Pittsburgh received from Boston haven't delivered as expected. Brandon Moss is out of options, and might be put through waivers after hitting .232/.300/.381 since the trade, while Craig Hansen apparently went unclaimed after being designated for assignment. Both players have dealt with injuries.
- Huntington says that if Andy LaRoche's power comes on, it would be a good trade for them since they acquired six years of him for a year and a half of Bay. If Bryan Morris develops into a middle of the rotation starter, he would consider it a great deal.
Execs Name Best, Worst Moves Of The Offseason
Recently MLBTR spoke to several MLB executives to gather their nominations for the best and worst moves of the offseason.
Free agent signings that received mention for the best moves: Felipe Lopez, Adrian Beltre, Adam LaRoche, Chone Figgins, Hideki Matsui, and Aroldis Chapman. Said one exec on Chapman: "He might truly live up to the hype." It's hard not to praise the Cards for getting Lopez on a one-year, $1MM deal.
Three trades came up as choices for the best moves of the offseason: the Mariners' acquisition of Cliff Lee, the Royals' trade of Mark Teahen, and the Rangers' trade of Kevin Millwood. One exec noted that the Mariners "didn't trade anyone that can hurt them in the next couple of years" for Lee, while another believed that "trading Lee and Kyle Drabek in the Roy Halladay deal will hurt [the Phillies] in the long run." The Royals received props for "getting some value for Teahen," while the Rangers' increased payroll flexibility from the Millwood deal was noted.
Nominated for the worst moves: free agent deals for Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, Brandon Lyon, Jason Kendall, Aubrey Huff, Jason Marquis, Randy Wolf, and Garrett Atkins. All the execs polled mentioned Holliday's seven year, $120MM deal when choosing their worst deals of the winter. Said one: "The fear that he would sign a one-year deal elsewhere and take his chances a year from now — that just doesn't make sense to me."
Aside from Kendall and Huff, there was a vibe of "like the player, hate the contract" with the panned free agent signings. One exec felt the Royals downgraded behind the plate with Kendall. Huff was nominated as a small-scale misstep, in that the exec felt that "Hank Blalock is better and he couldn't get half that salary on a non-roster deal."
Odds & Ends: Weeks, Castro, Roberts, Piniella
Lots of rainouts in Florida, so here are some links to get you through the day…
- Jayson Stark takes a look at pitching phenoms not named Stephen Strasburg. Also featured: Strasburg.
- MLB.com's Steve Gilbert looks back at the trade that sent Jose Valverde to Houston and says the D'Backs now look like winners for obtaining Chad Qualls, Juan Gutierrez and Chris Burke.
- Rickie Weeks told Colin Fly of the AP that he'll miss former teammate J.J. Hardy, who was traded for Carlos Gomez this winter (link via the Miami Herald).
- MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo profiles highly-touted high schooler Jameson Taillon, from his academic background to his hobbies, to his upper-90s fastball. Taillon will likely be a top pick in this year's draft.
- Top Cubs prospect Starlin Castro will start the season in Triple A no matter how good he looks in Spring Training, according to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.
- Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail repeated to Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun that the Orioles will consider other options in case Brian Roberts isn't going to be ready on Opening Day.
- In case you're wondering, Jermaine Dye is the only remaining free agent who qualified for the batting title last year.
- Cubs manager Lou Piniella feels healthy going into the last year of his contract, according to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Team president Crane Kenney expects to have an "interesting conversation" with Piniella after the season.
- The Lancaster Barnstormers of the Atlantic League signed Toshihisa Nishi, according to this Sanspo report passed along by Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker (via Twitter).
- Jason Bay says he feels more comfortable than before, now that he has a no-trade clause in his contract, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com.
- Steve Dilbeck of the LA Times can't think of a Dodger to successfully make a comeback like the one Eric Gagne is attempting.
- A former GM tells Baseball America that teams didn't worry about losing players out of minor league options in the past. Check out MLBTR's list of players out of minor league options here and go to the Baseball America article for Matt Eddy's explanation of options and why they matter.
- Dave Sheinin of the Washington Post suspects that the Nationals may not draft Bryce Harper with the first overall pick in this year's draft.