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Olney’s Latest: Lee, Zambrano, Dodgers, Fielder

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In today's blog post at ESPN (Insider req'd), Buster Olney says that even though the Yankees already have five good starters, the tight race in the AL East is enough to keep them engaged with the Mariners about Cliff Lee. They will probably make an offer at some point, but they're unlikely to land him because they've been philosophically opposed to trading prospects for a player they could just sign as a free agent after the season.

Here are the rest of Olney's rumors…

  • Olney's message to any team looking for bullpen help: Good luck with that. There are no difference-making relievers on the market, and guys like Kerry Wood, David Aardsma, and Jason Frasor are no sure things.
  • Carlos Zambrano has some value as an innings eater, and the Cubs could probably get a team to absorb $10-15MM of the $45MM left on his deal. If he does get traded, Olney says it would likely be in the offseason.
  • People in the Dodgers' organization say there is "little or no hope" that money will be available for the team to make moves.
  • Olney doesn't see the Giants and Brewers matching up in a Prince Fielder trade. Matt Cain is a deal breaker given Tim Lincecum's recent struggles, and Jonathan Sanchez or Madison Bumgarner won't be enough.

Olney’s Latest: Oswalt, Mariners, Jays, Sonnanstine

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In today's blog post at ESPN, Buster Olney wrote about the major hurdles the Astros will face in trying to trade Roy Oswalt. The biggest obstacles are Oswalt's salary (owed $29MM through 2011), his history of back trouble, his full-no trade clause, and the fact that teams are coveting young players more than ever and might not be willing to give up a package good enough to convince owner Drayton McLane to move one of his star players.

As one GM put it, "a no-trade clause doesn't become a must-trade clause." Another believes they won't "just give the guy away." Here's the rest of Olney's rumors…

  • The Mariners continue to search for a hitter.
  • Toronto's asking for one or two prospects for relievers Jason Frasor and Scott Downs, but rival executives believe that asking price to be very high.
  • Some executives believe that the Rays will make Andy Sonnanstine available at some point this summer. Olney suggests the Mets as a potential fit, noting that there were brief talks between the two teams about a trade this offseason.

Odds & Ends: Orioles, Scheppers, Pirates, Blue Jays

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As we prepare for a weekend of watching AL pitchers take ineffective swings, here are a few news items…

Stark On Fielder, Howard, Sizemore, Frasor

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Jayson Stark's latest Rumblings and Grumblings column is hot off the press at ESPN.com.  Let's take a look.

  • Stark explains that the potentially legendary 2012 first base free agent class may be further depleted, as Albert Pujols is expected to stay in St. Louis and Adrian Gonzalez could be traded and extended by his new team.  Even Lance Berkman might stay put, leaving Prince Fielder as the remaining big name.  There are some who rank Fielder below Ryan Howard, writes Stark.
  • Stark says the Phillies signed Howard now because they felt a Pujols extension would drive up Howard's price.  For an explanation straight from the horse's mouth, check out Todd Zolecki's MLB.com chat with Ruben Amaro Jr. and Pat Gillick. 
  • If the 2012 first base free agent class is loaded, will there be enough teams willing to shell out massive contracts?  Stark says yes, naming a dozen teams he figures could be in the mix.  Don't forget the Nationals and Orioles, two clubs that made huge bids for Mark Teixeira.
  • Jayson Werth's agent Jeff Borris named the Jason Bay and Matt Holliday deals as frames of reference for his client.  Stark takes that to mean Werth will be looking in the $16-17MM range.  My question: does he get five years?
  • One source of Stark's says the Indians have shown zero inclination to trade Grady Sizemore.  Sizemore's $10MM club option for 2012 becomes a player option upon a trade, and Stark feels Sizemore would "almost certainly" exercise it – decreasing his trade value.  That assumes, of course, that Sizemore doesn't turn things around anytime soon.
  • Stark doesn't think the Red Sox have reached a desperation point regarding acquiring a catcher who can throw.  Bringing in a Chris Snyder or a Gerald Laird might necessitate releasing David Ortiz or Mike Lowell.
  • The Orioles have interest in Blue Jays reliever Jason Frasor.
  • In a table, Stark provides an interesting look at teams' guaranteed money rankings for 2011 and '12.  The Dodgers, interestingly, are very light on '12 commitments ($3.3MM).

Blue Jays Discussing Bullpen Trades

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Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has discussed trade proposals for relievers Scott Downs and Jason Frasor within the last few weeks, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.

Morosi notes that the recent struggles of Downs, Frasor, and the rest of the Blue Jays' bullpen could negatively impact Toronto's trade leverage. The Jays' 5.69 relief ERA ranks next-to-last in the American League, and the normally reliable Downs and Frasor have played a significant part in the bullpen's problems. Downs has a 5.63 ERA in eight innings, while Frasor has compiled a 9.35 ERA in 8.2 IP. It's probably too early to be concerned though — Downs has been consistently effective in Toronto, recording a 2.26 ERA from 2007 to 2009, and Frasor's .527 BABIP so far has inflated his ratios.

The Jays aren't expected to contend this year, meaning they could auction off free-agents-to-be like Downs and Frasor before July's trade deadline. Morosi names the Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Reds, Marlins, Brewers, and Rays as some teams that could be in need of bullpen help this season.

Top Trade Chips: AL East

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Let's finish off our series with the toughest division in baseball…

  • Blue Jays: The Jays already traded away most of their top pieces, but they still have three desirable relievers in Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, and Kevin Gregg. All three can become free agents after the season. There might be some interest in first baseman Lyle Overbay, who will also hit the open market after the season. 
  • Orioles: Considering how poorly he pitched before landing on the DL, I'm sure a large part of the Baltimore faithful wouldn't mind seeing Mike Gonzalez go. Alas, that won't happen anytime soon. There always seems to be interest in Luke Scott, who still has two more years of team control left. If they decide to sell at mid-season, Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Guthrie could find their way onto the block. 
  • Rays: The Rays are a player development machine, and they have enough young players to get get pretty much anyone they want. They have enough depth that they could trade one of Reid Brignac or Sean Rodriguez plus one of Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, or Jeremy Hellickson and not miss a beat. If they fall out of it and decide to sell, it doesn't get much better than Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, and Carlos Pena. I believe the term is "stacked."
  • Red Sox: Boston has held onto Clay Buchholz for this long, but with his name appearing so frequently on the rumor circuit, it really wouldn't be surprising if they moved him for a big time player. They might still be able to find a taker for Mike Lowell, and there would be interest in Manny Delcarmen if he were made available. They did lose a valuable chip when Junichi Tazawa went down with Tommy John surgery. 
  • Yankees: They seem unwilling to trade either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain, so their best chip is the semi-blocked Jesus Montero. Of course, the Yankees have the ability to absorb even the ugliest of contracts, so maybe we should consider that their biggest trade chip.

Rosenthal’s Latest: D’Backs, Robertson, Pirates

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Some notes from Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com…

  • The Diamondbacks continue to pursue a number three or four starter in the wake of Brandon Webb's setback. A club official acknowledged that such a pickup was possible, but “I don’t think any team will be willing to give up that kind of pitcher at the start of the season.”
  • Rosenthal says the team has infield depth to use in a trade, and reiterated that they'd love to move Chris Snyder and the $11.25MM left on his contract. The Rangers and Red Sox are said to be looking for infielders, and the Mariners could join them following Jack Hannahan's injury.
  • The Tigers are shopping Nate Robertson, but Arizona doesn't consider him enough of an upgrade. Zach Duke and Paul Maholm are not available.
  • The best available starter may be Chad Gaudin, who was released by the Yankees on Thursday.  
  • The Brewers considered a Jeff Suppan for Snyder trade, but didn't want to take on Snyder's 2011 salary. Suppan will earn $12.5MM this season, the final one on his contract.
  • The Cubs do not expect to make a trade for a reliever before Opening Day, but they've scouted Jason Frasor and Scott Downs, plus Luke Gregerson of the Padres.
  • Nick Green has an out clause in his minor league contract, but the Dodgers may add him to the roster to serve as the backup shortstop.

Odds & Ends: Helton, Gaudin, Hensley, Papelbon

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Links for Monday…

  • Troy Renck of The Denver Post has the details of Todd Helton's new contract extension. He can void the deal if two of three general partners sell their controlling interest in the team, and it contains $13.1MM in deferred money at three percent interest.
  • The Yankees could look to move Chad Gaudin soon, according to Rosenthal (via Twitter). In another tweet, he mentions that Clay Hensley can opt out of his contract with the Marlins if he's not on the roster by April 1st.
  • Jim Bowden shows off his post-trade fist pump in his latest GM's Corner video for FOX Sports.  Bowden asked a slew of GMs about their processes for making deals; Frank Wren estimated that less than ten percent of discussions lead to trades.
  • In considering Jonathan Papelbon's future, WEEI's Alex Speier demonstrates just how risky large multiyear deals for relievers have been.
  • FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal says the Blue Jays "will not settle for fringe prospects in return" for relievers Scott Downs and Jason Frasor, and they could use them to continue the rebuilding effort.
  • Rosenthal adds that Gary Sheffield is talking to a NL club, though it's not clear which one. 
  • Meanwhile, Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com notes that both Jamey Wright and Austin Kearns have out clauses in their contracts, but a club official said the provisions will not impact the makeup of the team. A source added that there are "no trades on the horizon" for Cleveland.

Joe Nathan To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan will undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery, according to Kelsie Smith of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (via Twitter). Nathan played a game of catch today, and decided afterward that his right elbow required surgery.

Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune writes that Nathan hasn't decided yet where or when he'll have the surgery, but hopes to get it done as soon as possible, aiming to be ready to pitch by Opening Day 2011.

In the meantime, the injury will leave the Twins with a gaping hole in the ninth inning, a spot Nathan had dominated over the past few years. Since joining Minnesota, Nathan has been perhaps the most effective closer in baseball, recording a 1.87 ERA since 2004, with an average of 41 saves per season.

To replace Nathan, the Twins could use an in-house candidate such as Jon Rauch or Matt Guerrier. Or, they could look to make a trade. We've already heard that they might be interested in Heath Bell and Jason Frasor. Now that there's no question that Nathan will miss the 2010 campaign, the team's search for a replacement could become more aggressive.

David Purcey Drawing Attention

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Blue Jays lefty David Purcey is "drawing attention from clubs," tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Rosenthal also notes that the Cubs had a scout on hand Sunday for Jason Frasor's ugly Sunday stint (four hits and four earned runs in a third of an inning).  Rosenthal says Frasor was under the weather during the appearance.

Purcey, 28 in April, was J.P. Ricciardi's first-round pick in 2004.  He posted respectable strikeout rates at most minor league stops, but was plagued by control problems.  He seemed to figure it out by his third Double A stint in '07, trimming his walks per nine to 2.3.  However, surgery to remove cysts in his forearm and triceps cut that season short.  Purcey kept the walks down the next year at Triple A, and showed flashes of brilliance in his '08 MLB debut season.  The '09 season was a step back, with Purcey losing his rotation spot by May due to his walk problem.

Now MLB.com's Jordan Bastian says the Blue Jays have trimmed Purcey's repertoire and are leaning toward making him a reliever.  Once the Blue Jays' #3 prospect, Purcey's outlook has been downgraded over the years by Baseball America from a potential #2 starter to a mid-rotation guy to a reliever.  He still brings the power stuff that made him a first-round pick in '04, and there might be another club out there with ideas on fixing his command.

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