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Blue Jays May Keep Downs; Asking Price Still High

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6:51pm: The Blue Jays aren't lowering the asking price for any of their relievers, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (via Twitter). Toronto's front office has told teams around the league that they'll keep their relievers, offer arbitration and receive draft picks if they don't see offers they like, according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).

3:12pm: Rival teams believe the Blue Jays may end up keeping Scott Downs, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark. Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos continues to drive a hard bargain, so the Blue Jays may keep the lefty and offer him arbitration after the season. 

At least one team might meet Toronto’s demands. The Twins, who traded top catching prospect Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps, haven’t stopped pursuing Downs, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter). However, the Twins are “not likely” to acquire Downs as it stands now. The Red Sox are not at the forefront of the Downs discussions, according to Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com (Twitter link).

Downs may be pitching in Toronto after the deadline passes, but the Blue Jays are likely to lower their asking price for relievers Kevin Gregg and Jason Frasor.

Odds & Ends: Cardinals, Abreu, Mets, Edmonds

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A few assorted links, as the trading finally picks up…

Sherman on Phillies, A’s, Blue Jays

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Some of the biggest trade chips have already been moved, some contenders are dropping out of the race and few teams seem willing to take on salary. All of these factors give MLB executives the sense that this trade deadline could be a quiet one, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Lots can happen in the coming three days, so here are Sherman’s latest rumors:

  • One NL scout says the Phillies are “the most active team out there.”
  • The A’s think their young pitching will keep them in contention next year. The club expects to be able to afford a major power hitter like Adam Dunn this offseason.
  • The Blue Jays tell rival teams that they are content to keep Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg, Jason Frasor and John Buck. The Jays claim they’d offer arbitration to all four, but some teams believe they’re just posturing. Frasor (barely) and Downs project as Type A free agents, while Buck and Gregg project as Type Bs. Click here for the details, but essentially the Jays could obtain six top picks in 2011 if all four players turn down arbitration to sign elsewhere.
  • Toronto officials say Downs would earn a contract comparable to Darren Oliver ($3.5MM) or Jeremy Affeldt ($4.5MM) if he accepts arbitration.
  • Twelve teams have called on Downs and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports notes on Twitter that the Dodgers are a “longshot” to acquire the lefty. Ned Colletti & Co. have interest in the Jays’ relievers, according to Rosenthal.

Relief Rumors: Capps, Jays, Dotel

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Bullpen help is always in great demand as the deadline approaches, and 2010 is no exception. With all of the relief rumors circulating today, let's take a look at some of them:

  • Earlier today, we heard that the competition for Scott Downs was heating up, but that some executives think the Jays are asking too much. Ken Rosenthal tweets that the Jays are asking a lot for all three of their available relievers — Downs, Kevin Gregg, and Jason Frasor. The Dodgers inquired but are now looking elsewhere as a result of those demands.
  • Buster Olney has heard that several executives think the Nationals will trade Matt Capps. The Washington closer is having a strong rebound season, but makes $3.5MM and will be in line for a large raise through arbitration prior to the 2011 campaign. With the strong results seen from Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen this year, the Nats have quality in-house options to replace Capps. GM Mike Rizzo recently said he's not shopping Capps, but he's getting lots of calls.
  • Troy Renck of the Denver Post writes that the Rockies had a scout at Octavio Dotel's last outing, but they're concerned about his durability and switching from a closer to setup role. According to Renck, teams are monitoring the Pirates to see if they'd make Evan Meek or Joel Hanrahan available as well.

Dodgers Interested In Many Pitchers

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The Dodgers are interested in a variety of starters and relievers, according to Yahoo’s Tim Brown. They are calling to inquire about Roy Oswalt, Ted Lilly, Dan Haren, Jake Westbrook and Fausto Carmona. At one point, when Josh Byrnes was running the D’Backs, the Dodgers were discussing a deal for Haren, but those talks are no longer active.

The Dodgers have also expressed interest in available Blue Jays relievers such as Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs and Jason Frasor. GM Ned Colletti is attempting to improve his team’s bullpen, since the Dodgers are within striking distance of the NL West lead, though they currently trail the Padres, Rockies and Giants.

Red Sox, Yankees Interested In Scott Downs

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The Red Sox and Yankees have "big-time" interest in Blue Jays reliever Scott Downs, according to Ed Price of AOL FanHouse.  Downs, a free agent after the season, has a 2.56 ERA, 7.0 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9 in 38.6 innings this year.

Neither team's interest comes as a surprise.  The Red Sox have been linked to Downs since this July 6th report from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  The Yankees are known to be seeking relief help.  The Phillies are also said to be interested in Downs.  Last week on WEEI's The Big Show, former Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi praised Downs as a potential Red Sox acquisition but had harsh words for Jason Frasor and Kevin Gregg.

ESPN's Buster Olney had an interesting series of tweets today on Downs, where he explained that the lefty might be hurt by Type A designation if he is offered and turns down arbitration after the season.  Perhaps Downs' agent at CAA will advise the pitcher to accept if offered.  A look at our latest Elias Rankings projections shows that Matt Guerrier, Frank Francisco, Dan Wheeler, Arthur Rhodes, and Pedro Feliciano might be in the same boat as Type As, though I imagine many will not be offered arbitration.

Blue Jays Make Gregg, Frasor, Downs Available

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10:47am: The Jays have made Gregg, Frasor, and Scott Downs available, reports WEEI's Rob Bradford.  Bradford feels that the Red Sox are a potential match for one of them.

Frasor's control has slipped this year, especially against lefties.  He's getting more groundballs than last year, though more hits have dropped in too.  Frasor has been better lately and remains a useful arm.  He has $1.21MM remaining on his contract.  At the moment, he profiles as a Type B free agent after the season.  Downs, meanwhile, has trimmed walks and hits compared to '09.  The lefty is owed $1.83MM; MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith analyzed the potential Type A free agent a week ago.

7:50am: The Blue Jays have made closer Kevin Gregg available, tweets Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun.  Elliott adds that the Jays re-routed a scout to Seattle for the final two games of this weekend's Yankees-Mariners series, implying that the Jays might consider the Yanks a potential match for Gregg.

Gregg doesn't appear concerned with trade rumors, based on his comments to MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith Saturday.  Gregg's one-year, $2.75MM deal with the Blue Jays seemed curious in February, but he was installed as the team's closer in April when Jason Frasor struggled.  Gregg has a 3.67 ERA, 9.7 K/9, and 4.7 BB/9 with three home runs allowed in 34.3 innings this year.  He's saved 20 of 23 and bumped his groundball rate from last year.

After the season Gregg's team can choose to retain him for zero, one, or two years.  His club option is for $4.5MM in 2011 or $8.75MM for 2011-12.  He currently profiles as a Type B free agent, and an arbitration offer seems possible.  Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos figures to aim for more than the value of one supplemental draft pick if he trades Gregg now.  Gregg has $913K remaining on his contract, plus a potential $750K buyout on the option.

What The Elias Rankings Mean For Trade Candidates

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Many of this year's trade candidates share a distinguishing characteristic: they are about to become free agents. After the season, their teams will decide whether to offer arbitration and have a chance at top picks in next year's draft. A player's ranking can contribute to or detract from his trade value, so let's take a look at some of this year's trade candidates and see where they place under our reverse-engineered Elias rankings. 

We'll start with some trade candidates who project as Type A free agents. If these players decline arbitration offers to sign elsewhere, their former teams will receive two top picks in the 2011 draft. These players are sometimes more inclined to accept arbitration, since their Type A status can intimidate would-be suitors who don't want to surrender a pick (just ask Juan Cruz and Orlando Hudson).

It's important to note that teams don't necessarily give first rounders up to sign the players below. The first 15 picks are protected and sometimes teams sign more than one Type A player. Say the Red Sox sign Adam Dunn (75.8 ranking) and Scott Downs (74.6 ranking) and both were offered arb. The Nationals would get Boston's top pick and the Blue Jays would get their second-best pick because Dunn ranks higher than Downs. In that instance, Downs only costs the Red Sox a second rounder.

Once a team signs one Type A free agent, the cost of signing a second and a third drops, since the club is giving up lesser picks. Rafael Soriano (88.9), Vladimir Guerrero (88.6), Carl Crawford (85.5), Javier Vazquez (79.0) and Adrian Beltre (78.9) could all get arbitration offers this winter, so Type As, especially lower-ranked players, don't always cost a first rounder. With that in mind, here are some trade candidates who currently have Type A status:

  • Cliff Lee (91.8) – He is getting an arbitration offer and turning it down. Lee's Type A status boosts his trade value.
  • Jayson Werth (86.0) – Same goes for Werth.
  • David DeJesus (78.3)- Matt Klaassen of FanGraphs argued yesterday that the Royals shouldn't offer arbitration, since DeJesus would accept. It's entirely possible that the Royals can get more value for DeJesus in a trade, but I don't think DeJesus would necessarily accept arbitration. He will easily be a top-five outfielder if his team lets him hit free agency instead of picking up his $6MM option. And if he accepts? The team has an above-average outfielder on an affordable one-year deal.
  • Adam Dunn (75.8) – He will get an arbitration offer and will probably turn it down. Dunn's Type A status boosts his trade value.
  • Scott Downs (74.6) – Earlier this week, I suggested the Blue Jays could offer Downs arbitration and either collect the picks or pay him $5MM or so in 2011. There's a good chance that Downs accepts an offer of arbitration, but the chance at two top picks probably makes that a risk worth taking. 
  • Miguel Tejada (74.4) – It's hard to imagine teams forfeiting picks to sign Tejada. It seems unlikely that a team would offer arbitration. Tejada's Type A status doesn't affect his trade value (and he is only a couple points away from becoming a Type B).
  • Ted Lilly (74.3) – Lilly will be a top free agent starter after the season, so the Cubs will likely offer arbitration. Lilly's Type A status boosts his trade value.

And here are some players who currently project as Type B free agents. These players will bring their former teams a supplementary round pick if they decline arbitration to sign elsewhere. But teams don't have to give up their picks to sign Type Bs, which makes these players appealing as free agents.

  • John Buck – J. P. Arencibia is Toronto's catcher of the future, but it's easy to imagine the Blue Jays (or another team) offering Buck arbitration after the season. It worked last year, when the Jays got a supplemental rounder for losing Rod Barajas. Buck wouldn't make much through arbitration, so his Type B status boosts his trade value.
  • Jose Guillen – It's extremely hard to imagine the Royals offering arbitration. His Type B status does not affect his trade value.
  • Mike Lowell – Same goes for Lowell.
  • Kevin Millwood – And for Millwood.
  • Jason Frasor – Frasor makes only $2.65MM this year, so he wouldn't be making an overwhelming amount even if he accepted arbitration. Obtaining a pick for Frasor would be a plus, so his Type B status helps his trade value.
  • Derrek Lee – Given Lee's struggles and salary, it's hard to imagine his team offering arbitration.
  • Cristian Guzman – Guzman makes $8MM this year and though players aren't guaranteed raises via this kind of arbitration, Guzman isn't even worth his current salary on the open market. An arbitration offer seems unlikely, so his status doesn't affect his trade value.
  • Octavio Dotel –  Like Frasor, Dotel could see an offer of arbitration, depending on how he finishes the season, so his Type B status helps his trade value. The Pirates have a $4MM option for Dotel that becomes mutual if he is traded.
  • Aaron Heilman – It seems unlikely that the D'Backs would feel comfortable offering Heilman arbitration, given his inconsistent performance in 2010, so his status doesn't help his trade value.

Rosenthal On D’Backs, Dunn, Blue Jays, Morgan

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In his latest column, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that it's unlikely the Diamondbacks make a huge splash before the trade deadline. With interim GM Jerry DiPoto not expected to hold the position past this season, Rosenthal is skeptical that the D'Backs would give him the reins to blow up the roster. Although Arizona could trade potential free agents like Adam LaRoche, Chad Qualls, and Aaron Heilman, Rosenthal thinks the team probably won't move Dan Haren, Kelly Johnson, or Stephen Drew. Here are a few other notes from the piece:

  • According to a rival club offical, the Nationals were asking the White Sox for either Gordon Beckham or Carlos Quentin in exchange for Adam Dunn.
  • If the Blue Jays don't receive satisfactory offers for their free-agents-to-be, the club may take the same approach they did last year, when the departures of Marco Scutaro and Rod Barajas earned them draft picks. Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, and John Buck all project to be Type As or Bs, and could potentially net the Jays multiple 2011 compensation picks.
  • When teams call the Jays to talk trades, Toronto's young starting rotation is the most frequent topic of conversation.
  • Some members of the Nationals organization wouldn't mind trading Nyjer Morgan to open up center field for Roger Bernadina.
  • Within seven to ten days, the Marlins should make a decision on whether or not to be sellers.
  • If Buck Showalter lands the Baltimore managerial job, former Orioles such as Bill Ripken and B.J. Surhoff would be candidates to join his staff.

Rosenthal On Padres, Uggla, Blue Jays, Nats

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Let's dive into the latest edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..

  • The Padres are seeking a durable starting pitcher as they approach the deadline.  The Padres know that they need a bat but their offense is so weak that they fear a lack of quality starting pitching might derail them faster than a lack of hitting.  Durable starters are hard to come by on the trade market, but the Diamondbacks' Edwin Jackson could be a fit.
  • The Marlins changed skippers thinking that they were a better team than they've shown, but that hasn't been the case thus far.  Unless they rally, the club will end up as sellers.  Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, Cody Ross, and Ricky Nolasco all hold value.  Nolasco's name hasn't come up much, but he could be one of the better starting pitchers on the market.  Uggla and his big bat are still sought after, even though his salary could rise to about $10MM in arbitration next season.
  • Toronto's Shaun Marcum could still be a trade chip, even after going on the disabled list with inflammation of the right elbow.  The club expects him to be back before the All-Star break and if so, he should be one of the better starters available.  The Jays could be active sellers as they have several more attractive pieces.  Relievers Scott Downs and Jason Frasor are both potential free agents.  Shortstop Alex Gonzalez and outfielder Jose Bautista could also get some bites.
  • Nats GM Mike Rizzo told Rosenthal that the club is getting interest in five or six players in trade discussion. While Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham are getting all the buzz, Cristian Guzman and Adam Kennedy could be attractive to teams in need of infield help.  Matt Capps could be a trade chip as well now that he has recovered from his slump.  They control the closer through next season, though they may look to cash in on his value while it is peaking.
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