Orioles, Guthrie Avoid Arbitration
The Orioles avoided arbitration with Jeremy Guthrie, agreeing to a one-year deal, according to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun (on Twitter). The deal is worth $5.75MM plus award bonuses, according to CAA, Guthrie's agency, on Twitter. The Orioles offered $5MM and Guthrie countered with a $6.5MM submission before the sides agreed to a deal at the midpoint.
The former first rounder reached the 200-inning plateau for the second consecutive season last year, posting a 3.83 ERA with 5.1 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. Guthrie, who will likely be Baltimore's Opening Day starter, has started at least 30 games for three consecutive seasons.
As I explained last month, Guthrie's case would likely have involved a discussion of durability vs. dominance. However, the sides avoided Wednesday's scheduled hearing, so the point is moot for another year.
As our Arb Tracker shows, only seven arbitration eligible players remain unsigned for 2011. All of the Orioles' arbitration eligible players are under contract for 2011, now that Guthrie and Luke Scott agreed to one-year deals. Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun points out that the Orioles haven't gone to an arbitration hearing since 2006.
AL East Links: Gonzalez, Bautista, Shealy, Orioles
The Yankees already added a reliever today. Here are some notes on what their division rivals are up to…
- Adrian Gonzalez says he hasn't imposed a deadline for extension negotiations with the Red Sox, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Gonzalez, who worked out at Red Sox camp today, did not seem worried about talks with Boston, according to Cafardo.
- The Blue Jays' arbitration hearing with Jose Bautista will take place Monday, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.
- The Jays signed Ryan Shealy to a minor league deal, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America (on Twitter). The 31-year-old appeared in five games for the Red Sox last year after spending the 2009 season in the minors. Shealy posted a .231/.345/.472 line at Triple-A for the Red Sox and Rays last year.
- Speaking of Boston, Alex Speier of WEEI.com introduces us to the team's many bullpen candidates. They have lots of left-handers to choose from. Felix Doubront, Rich Hill, Andrew Miller, Hideki Okajima and Dennys Reyes will provide manager Terry Francona with plenty of options.
- The Orioles are actively discussing deals with Luke Scott and Jeremy Guthrie, according to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. The O’s don’t appear to be on the verge of an agreement with either arbitration eligible player. Scott’s hearing is next Monday and Guthrie’s hearing will take place Wednesday. Keep track of all the remaining arbitration hearings with our Arb Tracker.
Orioles Notes: Guthrie, Millwood, Scott
Some news items out of the Orioles' FanFest event this weekend…
- The Orioles have discussed a multiyear contract with Jeremy Guthrie, the right-hander tells MASNsports.com's Steve Melewski. "I love pitching here and anytime you can provide your family with security, it's a great option," Guthrie said. "I'm very happy to also play it out year-by-year and have the motivation to go out and do the best that I can. Whatever happens, I'll be a good spot." Guthrie is going through the arbitration process for the second time in his career; MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith recently analyzed Guthrie's case.
- Kevin Millwood is still an option for the O's, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Andy MacPhail told the FanFest crowd that the idea of re-signing Millwood "hasn't been ruled out 'by any stretch,' " but the Orioles can't guarantee a rotation spot to Millwood or any free agent starter. We've heard that Millwood is interested in returning to Baltimore, but without the promise of a regular starting gig, he could turn to other suitors like the Indians or Yankees.
- Luke Scott has told Buck Showalter that not only is he willing to move to left field if Baltimore signs Vladimir Guerrero, but Scott "wants to play defense," Showalter tells Steve Melewski. Scott played 106 games in left in 2008 and had a very solid +5.8 UZR/150 rating, but he has made just 40 outfield starts over the last two seasons.
Ten Arbitration Cases To Watch
There aren't many unsigned arbitration eligible players remaining at this point in the winter, but many of the most high-profile cases remain unresolved. As MLBTR's Arb Tracker shows, 26 arbitration eligible players have yet to agree on their 2011 salaries. Some of them will sign extensions, some will go to hearings and others will avoid arbitration with one-year deals. Here's a primer on ten of the most interesting arbitration eligible players out there:
10. Mike Napoli, Blue Jays - In case arbitration cases weren't complicated enough, the Blue Jays have to defend the Angels' number ($5.3MM) if they go to an arbitration hearing with Napoli, who filed at $6.1MM. The numbers stand, even though the Blue Jays acquired the catcher/first baseman after the Angels exchanged arbitration submissions with him.
9. R.A. Dickey, Mets – Dickey has said he's open to a multiyear deal. We'll soon know whether Mets GM Sandy Alderson wants to extend the knuckleballer or settle on a contract in the $3.35-4.7MM range.
8. Delmon Young, Twins - There's a $1.6MM difference between Young's asking price ($6.25MM) and the Twins' suggested salary ($4.65MM).
7. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles – As I explained yesterday, Guthrie's case could come down to his durability (175 innings in four consecutive seasons) vs. the fact that comparable starters (John Danks, Chad Billingsley, Matt Garza) have been harder to hit.
6. Rickie Weeks, Brewers – The Brewers are no longer discussing a multiyear deal with Weeks, who is asking for $7.2MM. The Brewers countered with $4.85MM.
5. Francisco Liriano, Twins - Liriano made $1.6MM last year and posted a 3.62 ERA with 9.4 K/9 in 191 2/3 innings. His representatives at Legacy Sports will argue that he has earned a raise to $5MM, while Bill Smith and the Twins say $3.6MM is more appropriate.
4. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros – Rodriguez's $10.25MM asking price seems high until you realize how few arbitration eligible pitchers have comparable big league experience (the Astros offered $8MM). Rodriguez is just 15 innings shy of 1,000 for his career and his ERA hasn't surpassed 3.60 in any of the past three seasons. The lefty's 985 innings are 246 more than Erik Bedard had after 2008, the season that set Bedard up for a $7.75MM payday. Few arbitration eligible pitchers earn eight-figure deals, but few have as much big league experience and success as Rodriguez.
3. Jered Weaver, Angels - Weaver requested $8.8MM, while the Angels countered with $7.465MM. Either way, the Scott Boras client will be earning substantially more than he did in 2010, when he made $4.625MM.
2. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays – I wrote last fall that Bautista's case comes down to his historic 2010 season vs. the forgettable campaigns he strung together before last year. Click here to read more.
1. Josh Hamilton, Rangers - The Rangers could bring up Hamilton’s injury history and past substance abuse, but they would have to do so subtly, says Michael Vlessides, a veteran arbitration consultant. “It’s the fine line between how much do you pick on the guy who’s the MVP. If you do it too much, you can lose a lot of credibility” Vlessides said. Beating MVPs in arbitration hearings isn’t easy, but the Pirates beat Barry Bonds after he won his first MVP in 1990 and again the following offseason.
Jeremy Guthrie’s Arbitration Case
Jeremy Guthrie's representatives at CAA will have to convince a panel of arbitrators that their client is worth more than $5.75MM if the sides go to a hearing. The Orioles offered the arbitration eligible 31-year-old $5MM, while he asked for $6.5MM. The discussion figures to revolve around three similar pitchers in the same service time class – Chad Billingsley, Matt Garza and John Danks – and will likely come down to durability vs. dominance.
Guthrie can point to his own durability and argue that he's worth more than $5.75MM. He has logged 812 1/3 innings in his career, more than fellow-CAA clients Garza and Danks. Garza will earn $5.95MM next year, Danks will earn $6MM and Billingsley will earn $6.275MM.
Guthrie has made at least 26 starts and logged no fewer than 175 innings in each of the last four campaigns. The other three starters cannot match the Baltimore right-hander's durability, as CAA will likely point out. Only Garza has had to compete regularly in the AL East, where Guthrie regularly faces some of the game's most potent offenses.
The Orioles, however, can argue that Guthrie's durability is compromised by inconsistent results. He led the American League in losses a year ago and posted an ERA over 5.00. None of the three other pitchers have posted an ERA that high since their rookie seasons and all of them have more wins and fewer losses than Guthrie in their careers.
Baltimore can also argue that despite Guthrie's durability, he has been hittable. The 2002 first rounder has been tagged for more hits and homers than the others, both in total and on a per-inning basis. Guthrie, the Orioles could argue, is less dominant than the other pitchers and therefore not deserving of a salary above the $5.75MM midpoint.
They could support that argument by pointing to his 4.15 career ERA (none of the others have career marks above 4.00, a seemingly arbitrary cutoff that could sway a panel of arbitrators). Despite Guthrie's high innings total, Billingsley, Garza and Danks have all struck out more hitters in their careers.
But Guthrie's representatives can point out that he has walked fewer batters than the others, both in 2010 and on a career basis. Guthrie's 2.6 B/9 mark is far better than the others, who have all walked at least 3.1 batters per nine in their respective careers.
So can the Orioles convince a panel of arbitrators that Guthrie's worth less than $5.75MM next year despite his history of durability? That's the $1.5MM question and we'll know the answer to it within a few weeks at the latest.
Arbitration Figures: Tuesday
Today is the deadline for players and teams to submit arbitration figures. Let's keep track of those figures here, with the latest updates on top. You can track all of the players that avoided arbitration today here.
- MLB.com's Jane Lee tweets that Craig Breslow filed for $1.55MM, but the Athletics countered with $1.15MM.
- Zachary Levine of The Houston Chronicle has some figures for the Astros. Wandy Rodriguez filed for $10.25MM, Hunter Pence for $6.9MM. The team countered with $8MM and $5.15MM, respectively.
- Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star tweets that Billy Butler filed for $4.3MM while the Royals countered with $3.4MM.
- Hank Schulman of The San Francisco Chronicle tweets that Javier Lopez filed for $2.875MM and Andres Torres for $2.6MM (Twitter link). The Giants countered with $2MM and $1.8MM, respectively.
Odds & Ends: Marlins, Orioles, Matsuzaka, Mariners
A few links to check out as the Padres live to fight another day…
- The Marlins told interim manager Edwin Rodriguez that he will be evaluated after the season and there is no managerial commitment for 2011 yet, according to Joe Capozzi of The Palm Beach Post (Twitter links).
- Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun says that the Orioles brain trust and new manager Buck Showalter have already had "extensive conversations" about the direction they want to go this offseason.
- ESPNBoston.com's Gordon Edes hears that Daisuke Matsuzaka would be willing to waive his no trade clause if it sent him to the West Coast. John Hickey of AOL Fanhouse says the Mariners might be willing to discuss a trade with the Sox, as long as the price is low (both Twitter links).
- The Phillies have asked their entire coaching staff to return for the 2011 season, writes MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. It's no sure thing they'll all return though; GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said he's had at least one inquiry on a coach for a managerial opening.
- Josh Byrnes told Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links)that he'd be interested in returning to a GM role if the situation was right. Rosenthal didn't ask him about the Mets, as Omar Minaya is technically still their GM.
- Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun writes that Jeremy Guthrie has graduated to being a "go-to starter" and shouldn't be traded by the Orioles.
- Dejan Kovacevic of The Pittsburgh-Post Gazette says that Pirates team president Frank Coonelly and owner Bob Nutting will soon decide the fate of GM Neal Huntington and other baseball personnel, and that Huntington will have input into the future of manager John Russell if he's retained. Both are under contract through next season, but Huntington's job appears to be safer. The GM was non-committal when discussing Russell during an interview Thursday night.
- Adrian Beltre has put himself into a real nice position heading into free agency, writes Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe. The third baseman said that he "will give everyone a chance" when it comes to listening to contract offers, but ultimately he will do what's best for him and his family.
- Dodgers GM Ned Colletti told ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider req'd) that he is not looking to trade Matt Kemp, but he will certainly listen to any offers that come his way. "But there's not going to be any shopping on our part," said Colletti. He expressed a similar sentiment about the team's other "core younger guys."
- Even though he is on his way out as Blue Jays manager, Cito Gaston told MLB.com's Jordan Bastian that he feels the team will need some veteran relievers next season. Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, and Kevin Gregg could all depart via free agency this winter.
Cafardo On LaRoche, Johnson, V-Mart, Guthrie
In his latest piece for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo speculates on possible frontrunners for all the managerial positions that could open up this offseason. Bobby Valentine, Fredi Gonzalez, Dave Martinez, Tim Wallach, and Brian Butterfield are among the options Cafardo suggests for various teams. Here are the rest of the highlights from Cafardo's column:
- The Diamondbacks placed potential trade candidates Adam LaRoche and Kelly Johnson on waivers on Friday.
- One National League GM on August trades: "You’re going to see a lot of deals in the third and final week. A lot of teams are still in the mode that they’re in the hunt and they don’t want to sell off. The races are tighter this year, so most of the activity will come later rather than sooner."
- The Red Sox and Victor Martinez's representation have had "preliminary talks" regarding an extension. Cafardo feels that Martinez could land a contract worth approximately $60MM for four years, and he's not sure if the Sox would pay that much to keep V-Mart's bat around.
- An American League GM tells Cafardo that he was on the fence about Jeremy Guthrie before the trade deadline and regrets not pursuing the O's right-hander more aggressively: "I think he’s a pitcher who could have helped a lot of teams if you’d taken that leap."
- Cafardo hears from a Blue Jays source that the team has "about 200 people" on their list of managerial candidates. Whether or not that's an exaggeration, the Jays are clearly casting a very wide net in their search for Cito Gaston's replacement.
Orioles May Be Done Dealing
The Orioles shipped Miguel Tejada out of town yesterday, and they might be done dealing according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Connolly doesn't anticipate more trades, but he ranks the Orioles most likely to go: Ty Wigginton, Will Ohman, and Luke Scott.
The Orioles lost a suitor for Wigginton when the Rangers acquired Jorge Cantu, and they like Wiggy's instruction of young players. Connolly says to forget about starter Jeremy Guthrie being dealt – he's been told it's a near impossibility and that the O's would have to be blown away.
Orioles Notes: Wigginton, Trade Market, Guthrie
MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli has some deadline-oriented quotes from Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail. Let's take a look:
- MacPhail doesn't think that Ty Wigginton's recent three-game suspension for bumping an umpire in an argument will affect his trade value. Wigginton is currently appealing the suspension, which could reduce it by 1-2 games. He's been linked to several teams, most recently the Rangers.
- MacPhail feels the market is a little slow because a lot of teams are completely focused on some of the big name pitchers out there (obviously referring to Dan Haren and Roy Oswalt).
- Baltimore isn't looking to move Jeremy Guthrie, though he's available. His contract situation (controlled through 2012) means they'd have to get a "significant return" to move him. Guthrie has been linked to many teams and said he would enjoy pitching in San Diego, though he loves Baltimore.