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Olsen/Willingham Trade Roundup

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It’s official – the Marlins traded Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham to the Nationals for Emilio Bonifacio, Jake Smolinksi, and P.J. Dean.  Let’s round up commentary on the surprising deal.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Johnson, Peavy, Dempster

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Here’s a look at the latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

  • It doesn’t seem likely that Randy Johnson re-signs with the Diamondbacks, though Johnson is holding out filing for free agency until the possibility is exhausted.  The D’Backs hope he will take a significant hometown discount; they have roughly $10MM to spend for Johnson and a second baseman.  If a Mark Loretta type takes $2MM, will Johnson take $8MM after earning $15.1MM for a fine ’08 season?
  • The Braves are frustrated with the progress on the Jake Peavy talks, and will explore other options (especially once the free agent market opens Friday).  Rosenthal says the Padres sent revised proposals to the Cubs and Braves yesterday, but those teams intend to stick with their offers.  Will the Padres crack and make a deal before Friday?
  • Rosenthal criticizes the Padres for the classless farewell to Trevor Hoffman.  They pulled their reduced offer, and didn’t agree to the meeting with ownership he requested.
  • Suddenly there may be more solid free agent closers than teams seeking one.  The Mets have their pick.  To me this is a sign that K-Rod will fall short of five years, $75MM.
  • Rosenthal believes Kevin Gregg is next up on the trading block for the Marlins, with Jeremy Hermida another possibility.
  • Casey Blake doesn’t have any geographic leanings regarding his next destination.  His agent feels a three-year deal is reasonable.  The Twins and Indians are among seven teams eyeing Blake.
  • The Cubs offered Ryan Dempster something in the range of Kyle Lohse’s four years, $41MM.  Teams don’t like to use the Carlos Silva deal as a benchmark, because it was such a clear mistake.

Marlins Raise Payroll Limit To $40 Million

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Mike Berardino of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel talked an industry source who says Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria has authorized a payroll of up to $40MM for 2009.  This means they won’t be forced to trade any of their 16 arbitration-eligible players.  Greg Cote first suggested this on September 30th, and Buster Olney reiterated it on October 15th.

However, Berardino confirms Olney’s note from Friday: Kevin Gregg, Mike Jacobs, and Scott Olsen are available.  The Marlins discussed sending Jacobs to the Royals for righty Carlos Rosa, but the Fish are worried about Rosa’s August forearm soreness.  A thought: why would the Royals consider trading pitching for Jacobs?  Berardino names the Mariners and Blue Jays as other interested parties, and considers the Indians a fit.  The Giants have also been named as a suitor.

Berardino wonders if the Rangers will pursue Olsen, perhaps offering a catcher.  I don’t believe Olsen would succeed in Texas.

Expected to remain in Florida: Dan Uggla, Cody Ross, and Alfredo Amezaga.  Berardino says the front office is divided on Jeremy Hermida’s potential.  Four teams have asked about Hermida.  Josh Willingham may be available, but his back is worrisome.

Cubs Offseason Targets

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Recently I wrote a Cubs Offseason Outlook, where many reasonable acquisition targets were discussed.  If the Cubs re-sign Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood, they’ll be limited by payroll unless the salaries of Jason Marquis ($9.875MM) or Derrek Lee ($13MM) are moved.

Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune names his possible Cubs targets: Brian Roberts, Adam Dunn, Jeremy Hermida, Mike Jacobs, Rafael Furcal, Jake Peavy, and Brian Fuentes.  Some fun names in there, many of which could only be added if payroll space is created.  Dunn would be an interesting choice for a regular right fielder, while Jacobs would represent a downgrade at first base.

The Cubs aren’t likely to add Peavy, especially if they re-sign Dempster.  If you’d like to take the speculation to the next level nonetheless, Barry Rozner has ideas at the Daily Herald.  With any trade scenario, it is always important to put yourself in the shoes of the other team and ask if it is truly the best deal for them.

Jacobs To Royals Fell Through

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Change is brewing in the Marlins front office this offseason. Not only have they decided to increase payroll to $30-35MM but also they are actively shopping Mike Jacobs, Scott Olsen, and Kevin Gregg this offseason; so actively, that a deal with Kansas City fell apart last week according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The deal collapsed, according to Jackson, due to "a medical issue involving a minor-league pitcher" from Kansas City.

If, or when, Jacobs is dealt, the Marlins feel Gaby Sanchez can take over at first, and Olsen’s spot in the rotation is expected to be occupied by Andrew Miller.

According to Jackson, a number of clubs have inquired about Dan Uggla but Florida seems to be looking for a far greater return for their All Star second baseman. Other names that could wind up on the block are Jeremy Hermida and Josh Willingham who are both arbitration eligible; however, it doesn’t seem likely that the Marlins will move either guy.

Should be a fun ballclub to watch this offseason.

Scout’s View Of Marlins Trade Targets

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Mike Berardino of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel talked to a veteran scout this week about the Marlins’ possible trade chips.

The reviews were on the positive side for Scott Olsen, Mike Jacobs, Dan Uggla, and Alfredo Amezaga.  The scout apparently recommended against Jeremy Hermida, Kevin Gregg, and Josh Willingham.  Hermida’s report was particularly damning, with the scout claiming the right fielder has "no passion for the game."

For more on the Fish, check out our Offseason Outlook.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Peavy Suitors, Lowe, Cardinals, Marlins

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Ken Rosenthal has a new column up, focusing largely on suitors for Jake Peavy, but also touching on some other news at the end… so let’s take a look!

  • Rosenthal states that the following teams have been speculated to be suitors for the Padres’ ace: Braves, Angels, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, Dodgers, Cardinals, Brewers, Rays, Rangers. While all of these are not serious possibilities, he elaborates on each team. He mentions Yunel Escobar as a likely centerpiece from Atlanta, and states that the Angels would love to acquire a frontline starter to allow them to send Ervin Santana and/or Joe Saunders to Colorado in a deal for Matt Holliday and/or Garrett Atkins. Rosenthal states that Howie Kendrick could be a big part of any trade, but his health seems like too serious of a concern to me. Rosenthal speculates on the possibility of a dominant rotation for the Yankees if they traded for Peavy and signed C.C. Sabathia. One rival executive’s speculative package for Boston included Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and Justin Masterson. The Padres will likely charge the Dodgers considerably more for Peavy’s service, as they are division rivals. He lists Rickie Weeks and J.J. Hardy as a possible centerpiece for a Milwaukee blockbuster, but also points out that Ben Sheets has made the Brewers wary of injury concerns. The other teams don’t seem to match up well, in Rosenthal’s opinion.
  • Rosenthal says that he was wrong in stating that Derek Lowe would prefer to remain on the West Coast. Lowe has now told him that he’d prefer to go East, with Boston being his top choice. He reiterated this desire to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo.
  • The Cardinals prefer a short-term solution for their closer situation, and will likely give Chris Perez the ninth inning job, or seek a lower-budget option through the trade market. They may also trade a young outfielder for an established bat at a corner OF position.
  • Kevin Gregg is still likely to be traded (perhaps an option for St. Louis), and four teams have asked Florida about Jeremy Hermida. Rosenthal speculates that the Marlins will begin 2009 with Cameron Maybin in center field and Cody Ross in right.

Will Marlins Trade Hermida?

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Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post spoke to Marlins right fielder Jeremy Hermida yesterday.  Hermida knows the Marlins will be active this winter, and he could be on the trading block again.

Hermida will turn 25 in January.  With three-plus years of service time under his belt, he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time.  Instead of $400K, Hermida will earn perhaps $2-4MM in 2009.  Trade rumors first surfaced this summer, when Hermida nearly became a Pirate in a three-team Manny Ramirez/Jason Bay deal.

2007 was a very promising year for Hermida – he hit .338/.403/.559 over the season’s final three months.  An MVP-caliber 2008 seemed possible.  Instead, Hermida struggled to a .245/.319/.405 line in a career-high 550 plate appearances.  He’s been particularly bad since August.  Defensively, he’s been slightly above average.

Trading Hermida now will be selling low, but the Marlins could save a few million.  Still, three years of Hermida won’t come cheap.  Tossing out a few possible suitors:  the Mariners, Nationals, Mets, and Braves.

Marlins Could Be Set For Another Fire Sale

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Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald says the Marlins will be forced to trade away some of their arbitration-eligible players this offseason unless management is willing to double their payroll into the $50MM range.

Jackson takes a closer look at which players may be on the move…

  • Two scouts and a GM told Jackson that the Marlins will likely explore the market for Mike Jacobs, noting they have other options at first base.
  • Jackson feels the Marlins won’t want to give Dan Uggla a long-term deal and will look to trade him.
  • With Cameron Maybin ready to take over, Jackson sees one or two of the starting outfielders, Cody Ross, Josh Willingham and Jeremy Hermida, being traded.
  • Closer Kevin Gregg will be gone if Matt Lindstrom shows he can handle the job.
  • Of the pitchers in the rotation, Scott Olsen seems the most likely to be traded. One scout told Jackson the Marlins could "get a lot" for Olsen and they have Andrew Miller who could take his spot.

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com and can be reached here.

Manny Ramirez Rumors: Thursday

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3:26pm: Many people are emailing saying Jon Heyman is reporting Manny to the Dodgers.

3:08pm: Aaaaaand…it’s dead again.

3:02pm: Rosenthal stirs things up: the three-headed Manny-Bay-Hermida deal is back on.

2:46pm: Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says the three-way is dead, while the Dodgers are in play.  Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe says to count out the Dodgers on Manny.  Guess these guys aren’t cube-mates.

1:31pm: Heyman says the Dodgers are back in the mix for Manny but the Marlins aren’t out of it.

1:17pm: Nick Cafardo doesn’t buy the "dead" talk.  However, the Pirates may have turned away from the Boston-Florida scenario for Bay.  The Rays are still a possibility for him.

12:56pm: Rosenthal’s hearing this thing is dead.

11:49am: Rosenthal has a mixed opinion, with one source advising caution and another saying the deal is "taking off."  Manny is following the ordeal on ESPN.

More links: a Gordon Edes Q&A on the topic, and word from Yahoo’s Tim Brown that the Pirates are happy with their end of the deal.

11:46am: Peter Gammons says the three-way Manny deal is close to dead.  It may not make sense for Boston.

11:34am: A deal hasn’t been reached, though Manny has consented to a Florida trade.  Jon Heyman considers this a major hurdle cleared.

The Rays appear unlikely to make a trade, by the way.  Perhaps they’re cursed by their own loaded farm system.

11:29am: Will Carroll has an update.  The Pirates could back out Bay talks entirely if they don’t get what they want.  The Red Sox will continue shopping Manny regardless, with the Dodgers and a mystery team in the mix.  The Dodgers might be willing to part with Matt Kemp.

10:44am: Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe agrees – the Pirates’ return for Bay may be the holdup.

10:12am: Rosenthal says the three teams have a framework for the major players, but no agreement on the prospects.  The Bucs’ return from the Red Sox is the holdup.  Rosenthal says Tucker and Stanton will stay put, by the way.

9:37am: Kovacevic says the Pirates are open to trading Bay to the Red Sox or the Rays.

9:22am: ESPN’s Jayson Stark’s source has this at 50-50.  The Pirates are insisting on Stanton but the Marlins don’t want to give him up.  Grabow coud end up in Florida rather than Boston.  Tucker is in play but not a lock to be moved.

9:10am: Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald has a source saying chances of a deal are "less than 50-50."  Some members of Red Sox front office are not convinced Manny should be traded.  What do you think?  Are they better off with Bay and Grabow or Manny?

7:59am: Scott Miller of CBSSports.com hears that Ryan Tucker and Mike Stanton would not be in the deal.  He says it’s not done and talks could still collapse.  By the way, the Pirates have tried to acquire Jeremy Hermida in the past.

7:17am: Here’s the latest on the Manny Ramirez–Jason Bay–Jeremy Hermida three-way deal talks.  At this time, the AP is saying there is no tentative agreement between the Red Sox, Pirates, and Marlins.

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