AL East Notes: Yankees, Montgomery, Red Sox, Clevinger, Shenton
Prior to the southpaw signing with the Diamondbacks last night on a one-year deal that guarantees him $25MM, the Yankees were among the teams most frequently connected to Jordan Montgomery this winter as the 31-year-old’s former club scouted out potential rotation upgrades in free agency. Reporting connected the sides throughout the offseason and while initial reports indicated that New York was more focused on Blake Snell and Montgomery preferred a return to the Rangers, the sides seemingly reopened negotiations on a hypothetical reunion last week. Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, however, the sides never got particularly close to a deal before the southpaw landed in Arizona.
Heyman writes that the Yankees remained in talks with Montgomery’s agent, Scott Boras, in the days leading up to his deal with the Diamondbacks but that the fourth tier of the luxury tax, which levies a 110% tax rate on spending beyond $297MM, proved to be a major obstacle in negotiations between the sides. While the Yankees suggested a four-year deal to the southpaw’s camp (which Heyman indicates may not have reached the “offer” stage of negotiations), the hypothetical pact would have guaranteed Montgomery just $72MM with heavy deferrals that Heyman indicates would have taken the deal’s net-present value to just $46MM.
That $11.5MM AAV clocks in at less than half of the $25MM Montgomery will earn in 2024, and the total guarantee over four seasons is less than the $47.5MM Montgomery would be able to earn over two seasons provided he makes at least 18 starts in 2024. While Montgomery was rumored to be searching for a long-term deal even as the calendar flipped to March, it would have been a shock if the left-hander hadn’t been able to beat the club’s offer elsewhere on the free agent market. With Montgomery now off the table, the Yankees figure to enter the regular season with a starting rotation of Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Clarke Schmidt, and Luis Gil while ace right-hander Gerrit Cole nurses inflammation in his elbow.
More from around the AL East…
- The Red Sox were also frequently tied to Montgomery as a potential suitor this winter, and were a frequently speculated destination for a number of starters in all tiers of free agency. Despite that wide-ranging reported interest, however, the club only came away with right-hander Lucas Giolito this winter. In the wake of Giolito undergoing an internal brace procedure on his UCL this spring the club also added righty Chase Anderson on a big league deal, though it appears they aren’t exploring further additions to their rotation mix at this point. WEEI’s Rob Bradford reported yesterday that the club has not made an offer to the lone remaining free agent starter of note, right-hander Mike Clevinger, who pitched to a 3.77 ERA in 24 starts with the White Sox last year. The club’s internal options of Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Whitlock will need to take a major step forward this season in order to improve upon the 4.68 ERA last year’s rotation mix posted despite losing veteran lefties Chris Sale and James Paxton.
- The Rays have struggled with injuries to their positional corps this spring, and key pieces such as Josh Lowe, Taylor Walls, and Jonathan Aranda are all slated to open the season on the injured list. Those injuries have created an opportunity for one player, however, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times noted this evening that infielder Austin Shenton is slated to make the Rays’ Opening Day roster as the final piece of the club’s bench mix. Shenton, 26, has never appeared in the majors before and struggled to a .195/.214/.244 line in 15 games this spring but excelled at the plate in the minors last year, raking to the tune of a .304/.423/.584 slash line in 134 games split between the Double- and Triple-A levels. Shenton has experience at first, second, and third base as well as both outfield corners and figures to act as a left-handed complement to the likes of Harold Ramirez, Amed Rosario, and Curtis Mead in the club’s positional mix to open the season.
MLBTR Podcast: A Live Reaction To The Jordan Montgomery Signing, Ohtani’s Interpreter, And J.D. Martinez Joins The Mets
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers makes remarks about his former interpreter and the gambling investigation (1:20)
- The inner strife of the MLBPA seems to be fizzling out (14:35)
- We are discussing J.D. Martinez signing with the Mets when we are interrupted by… (18:30)
- Live breaking news of Jordan Montgomery agreeing to a deal with the Diamondbacks (20:25)
- Then we go back to Martinez and the Mets (25:00)
- Some more Montgomery and Diamondbacks talk (29:10)
- Rangers sign Michael Lorenzen instead of Montgomery (34:15)
- Wyatt Landford makes Opening Day roster with the Rangers but Jackson Holliday doesn’t make the Orioles (39:00)
- Rockies sign Ezequiel Tovar to an extension (45:10)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Luis García Jr, Lance McCullers Jr, and Kendall Graveman of the Astros are likely out, at the very least, until mid-June. How come none of these guys are on the 60-day injured list? Do you seen the Astros moving them there and if so, when? (49:15)
- Do you think it’s possible that the league begins to follow the Angels and Rangers footsteps and call up recent draft picks as soon as they show any signs of potential? Also, do you think it is at all possible that teams start to call up teenagers? (52:25)
Check out our past episodes!
- Mutiny In The MLBPA, Blake Snell Signs With The Giants And The Dylan Cease Trade – listen here
- Injured Pitchers, Brayan Bello’s Extension, Mookie Betts At Shortstop And J.D. Davis – listen here
- The Giants Sign Matt Chapman, Zack Wheeler’s Extension, And Blake Snell And Jordan Montgomery Remain – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Yankees, Mets Remain Interested In Jordan Montgomery
With Opening Day a matter of days away, one of the offseason’s top free agent arms remains available in southpaw Jordan Montgomery. Reporting yesterday indicated that the lefty has multiple long-term offers on the table, though it’s unclear which clubs those offers have come from. Today, Joel Sherman of the New York Post indicates that both the Yankees and Mets have yet to “shut the door” on a hypothetical deal with the 31-year-old.
It’s hardly the first time a Montgomery-Yankees reunion has been rumored. A report last week revealed that the sides had “reopened discussions,” and the sides have been loosely connected all throughout the winter even as the lefty appeared to prefer a return to Texas while the Yankees pursued fellow southpaw and Scott Boras client Blake Snell. Per Sherman, the Yankees have provided Montgomery’s camp with a range at which they are comfortable striking a deal with the lefty, though the sides remain apart as things stand even as Montgomery’s asking price has dropped as the start of the regular season approaches.
Sherman indicates that Montgomery’s initial ask was in a similar range to the seven-year, $172MM deal signed by right-hander Aaron Nola back in November, but he’s since begun to target the extension Tyler Glasnow signed with the Dodgers as a potential comp. Glasnow’s deal was announced by the Dodgers as worth $136.5MM over five years, though it’s worth noting that figure includes his $25MM salary for the 2023 season. In other words, that deal guaranteed Glasnow just $111.5MM in new money over four years.
The Yankees don’t appear to be interest in going to that level to secure Montgomery’s services, however. Sherman indicates that the club has “privately assessed” Montgomery to be a #3 starter, suggesting that the club’s range of comfort could be closer to the four-year, $80MM deal veteran southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Diamondbacks back in December. While a gap of roughly $30MM is significant, it’s hardly completely insurmountable. New York reportedly made a six-year, $150MM offer to Snell back in January, suggesting a willingness to stretch their budget to land an arm of Montgomery’s caliber. Particularly in light of the sudden uncertainty the club’s rotation is facing with ace right-hander Gerrit Cole set to miss at least a couple of months to open the season, it would hardly be a surprise to see Montgomery and the Yankees find some common ground and work out a deal at some point.
The Mets’ interest, by contrast, does not appear to be as advanced as their AL counterparts. Sherman indicates that the club’s strategy regarding Montgomery is similar to the one they employed when negotiating with veteran DH J.D. Martinez, who eventually signed with them on a one-year deal that guarantees $12MM, though the majority of that money is deferred. That’s not to say that David Stearns’s front office values the two Boras Corporation clients identically; even considering the depressed market Montgomery is likely facing this late into his free agency, it would be a shock to see him sign a similar deal to the one inked by Martinez. Rather, it appears that the Mets don’t expect to get more deeply involved in Montgomery’s market unless his asking price drops into their established range of interest.
The 31-year-old would be a surefire upgrade to either club’s rotation if signed. Over the past three seasons, few pitchers have been more reliable than Montgomery, who sports a 3.48 ERA (121 ERA+) and 3.62 FIP across 94 starts. Only five pitchers—Cole, Nola, Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, and Jose Berrios—have started more regular season games over the past three years, and of that group only Cole and Gausman have posted a lower ERA during that time. With that being said, Montgomery’s lengthy free agency has wiped out the opportunity for him to have a normal Spring Training and will almost assuredly leave whatever club signs the southpaw to remain without him for at least the first few weeks of the regular season.
The New York clubs aren’t Montgomery’s only known suitors. The left-hander has frequently been tied to the Red Sox throughout the winter, and more recent reporting has connected him to Philadelphia as well. On the other hand, the rumor mill has been mostly quiet about Boston and Montgomery in recent weeks, while Phillies GM Dave Dombrowski told reporters (including Marcus Hayes of the Philadelphia Inquirer) that the club is not “actively seeking” free agent pitching at the moment, even in the wake of the news that right-hander Taijuan Walker will open the season on the injured list due to a shoulder impingement.
Latest On Jordan Montgomery’s Market
With less than a week remaining until Opening Day, left-hander Jordan Montgomery stands alone as the clear top free agent remaining on the market. That could change in the coming days, however, as Jim Bowden reported on MLB Network Radio this morning that the southpaw’s camp has two “long-term” offers on the table and that he could sign somewhere as soon as this week. It’s unclear which teams have made an offer to Montgomery at this point, though he’s be connected to the Yankees and Red Sox in recent weeks.
One club it appears is not among the two teams to have made an offer to Montgomery at this point is Philadelphia, though that’s not to say the Phillies don’t have interest in the lefty. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Phillies are “internally discussing” a pursuit of Montgomery, though he adds that a decision on whether or not to contact Montgomery’s agent, Scott Boras, about a potential deal has not yet been made. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reported recently that the Phillies had previously shown interest in Montgomery on a one-year deal prior to the start of Spring Training last month, though he adds that the club’s interest has “cooled” in the weeks since camp began.
All of that would seem to indicate that Philadelphia is something of an unlikely landing spot for Montgomery, unless the club not only reopens negotiations with the 31-year-old’s camp but also expands their interest beyond a one-year deal into a potential multi-year arrangement. Signing a multi-year pact could certainly make some sense for Montgomery, as the southpaw was ineligible to receive a Qualifying Offer this winter and therefore is likely to see his stock negatively impacted by one in a second trip through free agency.
Of course, as recently discussed by MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald, Montgomery wouldn’t be eligible for a Qualifying Offer this coming winter if he were to sign with a club after Opening Day. Speculatively speaking, that could create a situation where Montgomery remains focused on finding a multi-year deal in the days leading up to Opening Day without considering one-year arrangements until it, and his eligibility for a Qualifying Offer this coming winter, have already passed. Reporting earlier this month suggested that Montgomery was hoping to land a seven-year deal, though it’s unclear if either of the reported offers Montgomery currently has in hand approach that length.
With that being said, a lengthy deal that features a deflated average annual value could make a great deal of sense for a club such as the Yankees that has is approaching or has already surpassed the highest threshold of the luxury tax. Any expenditures over the final $297MM threshold are taxed at a 110% rate. That reality left the Yankees reportedly disinterested in engaging with Montgomery’s fellow top-of-the-market southpaw, Blake Snell, as he pivoted towards prioritizing a short-term deal at a high AAV.
The two-year, $62MM deal Snell signed with the Giants earlier this month came with an AAV just under $30MM, which would have left the Yankees to pay more than $32MM in taxes on top of the lefty’s actual salary had they signed him to that same deal. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible that both sides could benefit as the lefty could get the long-term security he’s reportedly searching for while New York would enjoy a much smaller tax bill on a yearly basis if Montgomery were amenable to a lengthy deal at a much lower annual salary.
Of course, given how close we are to the start of the regular season, it’s fair to wonder just how quickly Montgomery would be ready to enter a club’s rotation even if he were to sign before Opening Day. It’s possible he wouldn’t be too far behind, as Travis Sawchik of theScore reported this morning that Montgomery has ramped up to 75 pitches in preparation for the start of the season. On the other hand, Sawchik acknowledges that Montgomery’s preparation process may not be a perfect analogy for work in Spring Training, which involves facing live, big-league caliber hitting and working with a club’s coaching staff. Given those discrepancies, it would be somewhat surprising if Montgomery were able to start for a club on Opening Day at this point, though it’s at least reasonable to think that his ramp-up process will shorten the time he needs to prepare for the season once signed.
Yankees, Jordan Montgomery Have Reopened Discussions
The Yankees are “back in contact” with Jordan Montgomery’s camp at the Boras Corporation, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman adds that there’s still a gap between the southpaw’s asking price and the team’s comfort level.
Montgomery is the highest-profile player available in free agency. He’s not the last notable Boras Corp. client who remains unsigned — J.D. Martinez has also lingered on the market — but he is the final member of the top group that included Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell. All of those players eventually moved to short-term guarantees (three years for the position players, two for Snell) that allow them to opt out next offseason.
The 31-year-old Montgomery has reportedly been less amenable to that kind of arrangement. Heyman wrote that Montgomery was looking for a seven-year pact as recently as March 8. Early in the winter, his camp had tried to beat the $172MM guarantee which Aaron Nola landed to return to Philadelphia. Neither mark seems especially plausible just a week before Opening Day.
Part of Montgomery’s aversion to a short-term pact could be the qualifying offer. Since he was traded from the Cardinals to the Rangers midway through the 2023 season, he was ineligible to receive the QO. He hit this year’s market unencumbered by draft compensation. Each of Snell, Bellinger and Chapman declined a QO. They’re all ineligible to receive the offer again, as the collective bargaining agreement prevents a player from being tagged more than once in his career.
Montgomery could still receive the QO in a future winter, which could make the possibility of retesting free agency in a year comparatively less appealing. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored this afternoon, one option would be to wait until after the start of the regular season to sign. Only players who are on the same team for the entire preceding season can receive a qualifying offer.
It’s not clear how much that’s a calculus in Montgomery’s decision. Perhaps he was simply the most patient of the group in hoping that a long-term pact would present itself. That was clearly what he envisioned when he hit the open market after helping Texas to the first World Series in franchise history. Montgomery is coming off a personal-low 3.20 ERA in the regular season. He has reached 30 starts while allowing fewer than four earned runs per nine in each of the last three years.
For many players, the market simply hasn’t materialized the way they’d anticipated. The Rangers have cited concern about their local broadcasting contract as a reason for a relatively quiet offseason. Texas took a reduced rights fee to keep their contract with Diamond Sports Group for another season. While their deal had previously paid a reported $111MM annually, Heyman reported yesterday that they’ll receive $90MM for this year. There’s still broad skepticism about Diamond’s viability beyond the upcoming season.
The Yankees have no such concern about their television contract, as they’re very well positioned as co-owners of the YES Network. Their major spending deterrent is the luxury tax. New York is beyond the $297MM figure that marks the fourth tier of penalization. They’ve paid the CBT for two consecutive seasons, subjecting them to the highest penalties. The Yankees would owe a 110% tax on the average annual value of any additional signing.
That has evidently kept them from addressing a rotation that looks tenuous. Gerrit Cole will be out into May or June after experiencing elbow inflammation. New York parted with Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez and Drew Thorpe in the Juan Soto trade. Their only significant rotation acquisition this offseason has been a two-year deal for Marcus Stroman.
New York announced that Nestor Cortes will take the ball on Opening Day. He’ll be followed in the rotation by Carlos Rodón, Stroman and Clarke Schmidt. The fifth spot could fall to swingman Luke Weaver or a young pitcher like Clayton Beeter, Luis Gil or Will Warren. That’s already a risky group and there’s not much proven depth if anyone else from the top four suffers an injury.
Montgomery probably wouldn’t step into the Opening Day rotation given his lack of competitive Spring Training work, but he has been incredibly durable since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018. There’s a clear on-paper fit for a return to the Bronx. While Montgomery had some parting shots for the front office after being traded to St. Louis at the ’22 deadline, Stroman had also publicly criticized the Yankees before signing his deal. Montgomery has been loosely linked to the Red Sox and Mets in recent weeks, yet neither franchise seems keen on making a significant investment at this point of the offseason.
Why Jordan Montgomery May Wait Until The Season Starts To Sign
As this incredibly slow offseason has dragged on, much attention has been paid to the free agents who remained unsigned into February and March. There were many players in this group but a lot of attention was paid to the so-called “Boras Four,” which consisted of Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.
The attention was understandable as they were the highest-profile of the guys languishing in the open market. At the start of the offseason, just about every outlet that predicts such things pegged those four to get lengthy nine-figure pacts, including here at MLBTR. But as the winter dragged on towards the spring, many teams claimed to be at their spending limits, either due to uncertainty around TV revenue or competitive balance tax implications.
In recent weeks, three of those four players have pivoted to short-term deals with fairly high average annual values and opt-outs. In each case, the player can pocket a sizeable salary and then return to the open market in the future if they feel the chance of netting a mega pact will be better.
Bellinger returned to the Cubs on a three-year, $80MM deal, in which he can opt out after each of the first two seasons. Chapman got three years and $54MM from the Giants, also with opt-outs after the first two years. Snell will join Chapman in San Francisco after signing a two-year, $62MM deal that will let him opt out after this coming season.
Montgomery’s situation is slightly different than those three in one way. The other three received and rejected a qualifying offer at the end of the 2023 season, meaning they were tied to signing penalties this winter. The penalties vary depending on whether the team is a revenue-sharing recipient or a competitive balance tax payor, but a club has to forfeit one draft pick at minimum, sometimes two picks and also international bonus pool space. Players can only receive one QO in their career, so they won’t have to worry about those penalties in future trips to free agency.
Montgomery is in the opposite situation. He has yet to receive a QO and would not currently require a signing team to forfeit anything. Players are only eligible for a QO if they spend the entirety of the just-completed season with the same club. Since the lefty was traded from the Cardinals to the Rangers in the middle of the 2023 campaign, he wasn’t eligible to get a QO coming into this offseason.
That makes it somewhat complicated for him to consider the short-term, opt-out laden pacts that the other Boras guys settled for. While they all just shed their QOs and will be free from them going forward, Montgomery is currently free but could be in position to be saddled with a QO down the road. As recently as March 8, he was reportedly holding out hope of landing a lengthy seven-year deal. The fact that he remains unsigned suggests that he never got it and it’s hard to see a team making that kind of plunge at this late stage of the offseason.
Since Opening Day is now just over a week away, with most teams starting their seasons on March 28, perhaps it would be wise for him to look for the best short-term deal he can find but wait until after Opening Day to actually sign it. The collective bargaining agreement states that the QO applies to players who become free agents “after having been continuously under reserve (without interruption) to the same Club (either at the Major or Minor League level) since Opening Day of the recently completed championship season” and who have not previously received a QO from any club.
Perhaps waiting would make Montgomery more amenable to a short-term pact with opt-outs, as he wouldn’t have to worry about a qualifying offer, at least after 2024. Hypothetically, if he signed a two-year pact like Snell and decided not to trigger his opt-out, he could be given a QO after the 2025 campaign unless he was traded midseason again.
It’s also possible there would be an on-field logic to the move. Montgomery’s 188 2/3 innings in the regular season were a personal high and then he added another 31 frames in the postseason as he helped the Rangers win the World Series. Players sometimes talk about a “World Series hangover” where they experience a bit of extra fatigue in a season following a deep playoff run, since it shortens the offseason rest period. Delaying his spring ramp-up could perhaps give him some extra rest and avoid any of those hangover effects.
The flip side of this strategy is that a club could perhaps factor a future QO into the price of their contract offer. Starting with whatever dollar value they place on Montgomery as a pitcher, they might be will to add a few million to that if they feel there’s a high chance of him opting out and then netting them a future draft pick. By intentionally waiting until the season starts, Montgomery would presumably be taking that bump out of the picture.
That’s all speculation, to be clear, but it’s known that teams place internal values on draft picks. Mets owner Steve Cohen tweeted a few years ago that picks are worth up to five times their slot value to teams. Last year, picks 68-70 of the draft went to the Cubs, Giants and Braves. Those clubs had given QOs to Willson Contreras, Carlos Rodón and Dansby Swanson, respectively, and received compensation picks when they signed elsewhere. Per MLB.com, those picks each had a slot value a bit over $1MM.
Waiting to sign in-season due to concerns around the QO isn’t unprecedented, but this would be different than past instances. Some players who rejected QOs in the past waited until after the draft was completed to sign new contracts, therefore washing away the draft pick penalties. Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel and Kendrys Morales are some of the players who signed in June, after the draft. Stephen Drew was on a path to a similar fate in 2014 before the Red Sox, his previous club, realized their chances of getting any QO compensation were dwindling and just re-signed him.
Montgomery’s situation is different in that he only needs to wait one day into the season in order to make him ineligible to receive a QO after 2024. Since the QO can negatively impact a free agent’s earning power and the season will have started for all 30 clubs by next Thursday, perhaps he could sit tight a little bit longer.
Yankees Notes: Judge, Cole, Rotation
Yankees star Aaron Judge has been slowed a bit by some abdominal discomfort recently, with manager Aaron Boone telling reporters yesterday that the 2022 AL MVP is “mid-spring banged up” while downplaying concerns of a more serious injury. Judge revealed this morning that he underwent an MRI on his abdominal region yesterday to ascertain that there was no significant injury at play (X link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). That imaging came back clean. Judge says he won’t swing a bat until later this week but is hopeful he’ll be in the Opening Day lineup.
On the one hand, the fact that Judge has avoided any kind of serious injury is an obvious cause for relief. On the other, it’s hardly ideal that the season hasn’t even begun and he’s less than 100 percent. Judge specified that the discomfort he’s felt has been in the middle of his abdominal muscles — not his oblique region. That’s particularly notable given that Judge has had a pair of oblique strains in the past, including a Grade 2 strain in 2019 that cost him two months of the season.
“I think just from swinging from November all the way until now, every single day, it put some wear and tear on it,” said Judge (via Hoch). “Especially coming back after a [right] toe injury when your mechanics are a little messed up and you’re just working on some things.”
Judge, 32 in April, was once again excellent in 2023 — though a hip strain in late April cost him 10 days, while the sprained toe he referenced wound up shelving him for more than a month. In all, he played in 106 games — his fewest in a 162-game season since 2019 — and posting a brilliant .267/.406/.613 slash with 37 home runs in just 458 trips to the plate.
The Yankees are already awaiting MRI results on ace and reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole. Coupling that with even minor concern about the team’s best all-around player makes for an uncomfortable few days for the club and its fans. The Yankees indicated yesterday that Cole is expected to receive multiple opinions on his MRI results. An announcement today is not necessarily a given. SNY’s Andy Martino wrote yesterday that club officials have characterized the Cole MRI as “precautionary” and downplayed concern over a potential long-term injury. Time will tell whether that proves to be the case.
In the wake of the Cole news, there’s been a renewed focus on the Yankees’ rotation depth and ample speculation on contingency plans. The remaining pair of high-profile Scott Boras clients — Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery — have been at the forefront of that speculation. Martino reported in his piece that the Yankees haven’t yet circled back to Snell since concerns about Cole arose. Joel Sherman of the New York Post throws some cold water on the idea of the Yankees pivoting to either left-hander.
The luxury tax concerns for the Yankees have been highlighted at length by now. As a reminder, they’re a third-time payor who’s in the fourth and final tier of penalization. Any further additions to the payroll will be taxed at a 110% rate (based on the contract’s AAV) on top of the player’s salary. In the case of Snell, he’d also require forfeiting the team’s second-highest draft pick and surrendering $1MM of pool space in next year’s international free agent bonus pool, because Snell rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres.
Perhaps in part because of that, Sherman reports that the Yankees were more interested in Montgomery earlier in the offseason than in Snell — despite making a reported offer to the latter. The Yankees, per Sherman, “could not get a strong engagement” from Montgomery at the time, however. That lines up with some late-February reporting from The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, wherein he wrote that Montgomery’s hope had been for a return to the Rangers and that it was “believed” he did not “prefer” a Yankees reunion. With Montgomery still lingering on the market and the Rangers seemingly disinclined to spend further, none of that should expressly rule out an eventual match between Montgomery and the Yankees.
Sherman suggests that the likeliest course of action for the Yankees is to stand pat regardless of the news on Cole, though he opines that if they do make a move, they’re likelier to meet the White Sox’ asking price for right-hander Dylan Cease than they are to sign Snell or Montgomery. Cease is making $8MM this season and is controlled through 2025 via arbitration. He’d come with an $8.8MM luxury hit, but that’s a pittance relative to the tax hits it’d take to sign Montgomery or Snell for an AAV of $25-30MM — if not more. Prior reporting has indicated that the ChiSox were insistent on the inclusion of top outfield prospect Spencer Jones in talks regarding Cease, while the Yankees have been loath to consider moving him in any deal.
Latest On Jordan Montgomery, Red Sox
The Red Sox have been continually connected to free agent Jordan Montgomery as he has remained unsigned throughout the offseason, but without a deal seeming close to fruition. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports today that the two sides have stayed in contact but that the lefty is looking for a seven-year deal that the club is unwilling to give.
There are arguments for and against the Red Sox making a huge splash to improve the rotation at this point. From the start of the offseason, upgrading the starting staff has been a priority but the club hasn’t done it. They traded away Chris Sale and then signed Lucas Giolito, which amounted to something close to a lateral move, depending how one feels about those two pitchers. But it was recently reported that Giolito has a partial tear of his UCL and a flexor strain. The next steps still aren’t known but season-ending surgery is a possibility.
If Giolito is out of commission, then the Sox are essentially going into the season with the same rotation as last year but without Sale. Nick Pivetta struggled enough last year to get bumped to the bullpen, though he did finish the year strong. Brayan Bello had a decent year and the club clearly believes in him, since they just signed him to an extension, but he seemed to run out of gas late in the year and the low strikeout rate is still a bit of a concern. Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock are talented arms to fill out the rest of the staff but those three are still not fully established as starters, with none of that trio having hit 130 innings in a big league season. Cooper Criswell, Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy are on the 40-man as depth but no one in that group has 50 big league innings pitched yet.
Adding someone like Montgomery would be a clear upgrade, both this year and in the future. He has thrown 524 1/3 innings over the past three seasons with a 3.48 earned run average. He tossed another 31 frames in last year’s postseason with a 2.90 ERA, forming a key part of the Rangers’ World Series championship club. Pivetta is slated for free agency after 2024, so the need for rotation help should be even greater a year from now.
But the flip side of the argument is that the Sox may want to wait to put another big contract on their books. They are considered by many observers to be the weakest club in the American League East. The club’s lack of activity this offseason suggests they may view things similarly. Perhaps they don’t want to commit a huge pile of money to Montgomery when they don’t have faith in their current squad.
When a club signs a player to a long-term deal, they generally expect to recoup the most value in the early years when the player is still relatively close to their prime, and clubs are also aware that the later years might be a bit more painful. If the Sox don’t think they have a path to contention right now, perhaps they don’t have much desire to get a deal done with the 31-year-old Montgomery.
Instead, they could use 2024 as a year to evaluate younger players like Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Vaughn Grissom, Kyle Teel, Nick Yorke, Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony and others. They could trade impending free agents like Pivetta, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Tyler O’Neill this year to further stock up on young talent, then decide on the best time to make a big strike in the future. They could bolster the rotation in the short-term by signing someone like Michael Lorenzen or Jake Odorizzi.
RosterResource currently lists their competitive balance tax figure as $211MM, which is $26MM below this year’s base threshold of $237MM. They could fit in a big deal for someone like Montgomery without going over the line but it would be fairly close. Next year’s CBT number, on the other hand, is only at $133MM. That doesn’t include raises for arbitration-eligible players but the appetite for a giving out a big contract might be higher going forward than it is now.
For Montgomery, the fact that he is still unsigned as we approach the middle of March suggests that no club has met his asking price yet. It’s understandable that he is looking to maximize his guarantee here this winter, as he is coming off a great season and just helped the Rangers win the World Series.
This winter’s market has forced some other free agents to pivot to short-term deals, most notably Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman. Those two, like Montgomery and Blake Snell, are all represented by the Boras Corporation. Boras clients have generally had a stronger willingness to wait out the market than players with other agencies. But Bellinger and Chapman didn’t find the long-term deals they were seeking and pivoted to shorter pacts with opt-outs that will allow them to return to free agency next winter or the one after that. Reporting has suggested Snell is willing to do the same.
Montgomery may be less inclined to do so, however, since he didn’t receive a qualifying offer at the start of this offseason. Players traded midseason are ineligible to receive a QO and Montgomery was flipped from the Cardinals to the Rangers prior to the deadline. That means he can currently be signed without the club forfeiting any draft picks or international bonus pool money. If he were to pivot to a short-term deal with opt-outs, he would be highly likely to receive a QO whenever he decided to return to the open market, which would put a damper on his earning power at that point. He would also obviously be older and therefore less likely to find a club willing to make a long-term commitment to him.
It’s theoretically possible that he could sign a short-term deal and then be traded at midseason again, though he wouldn’t be able to control that. Clubs are also fairly unwilling to acquire such contracts at the deadline, as they would be taking on the downside of being committed to the player for many years if they got hurt and decided not to trigger their opt-out.
With Montgomery seemingly sticking to his seven-year ask, it suggests he and his reps are perhaps aware that the he is a less viable fit for the pivot to a short-term pact than Bellinger, Chapman or Snell. But he hasn’t found the right deal yet and time will tell if he does end up getting it.
Cardinals Have Not Recently Inquired On Snell, Montgomery
With top left-handers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still unsigned into March, agent Scott Boras declared today that four new teams had checked in regarding those pitchers since the opening of spring camps. It doesn’t seem the Cardinals are among that group. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that, as of this afternoon, the Cards had not recently reached out to Boras about Snell or Montgomery.
That’s not a surprise, particularly as it pertains to Snell. St. Louis hasn’t been substantively tied to the defending NL Cy Young winner at any point. They’d left the door ajar to bringing Montgomery back at the time they traded him to the Rangers, but that possibility seemed more or less closed with the front office’s activity early in the offseason. The Cardinals added Sonny Gray on a three-year, $75MM pact as their big rotation pickup. They brought in Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson as hopefully stable sources of innings at the back end.
Gray’s tenure in Cardinal red has started somewhat shakily. The three-time All-Star was removed from his Spring Training appearance today with right hamstring tightness. Gray declined comment pending the results of an MRI; the team is expected to provide more information tomorrow.
While Gray’s status could theoretically spur the Cardinals to seek out additional pitching depth, that won’t be known until the team gets clarity as to whether he’s still on track to be ready for Opening Day. Even if he does need to spend time on the IL, a push for Montgomery or Snell would be a surprise.
St. Louis has roughly $185MM on the books for the upcoming season, according to RosterResource. That’ll be a franchise high for Opening Day, approximately $8MM above last year’s team-record figure. Their competitive balance tax number is around $215MM. Signing either pitcher, especially Snell, would push them near or beyond the $237MM luxury tax threshold. The cost for narrowly exceeding the threshold for the first time isn’t all that significant — a 20% hit on spending between $237MM and $257MM — but Goold notes that team officials have suggested they have no desire to push into tax territory.
If Gray remains on track for Opening Day, he’ll front a rotation also including Gibson, Lynn, Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz. Should anyone from that group miss time, young southpaws Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson are probably next on the depth chart. Drew Rom made his MLB debut late last year but was tagged for an 8.02 ERA over eight starts. Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein are also on the 40-man roster and have yet to reach the big leagues.
That’s a questionable group of depth starters for a team expecting to compete in the NL Central. Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen headline the crop of unsigned starters beyond Snell and Montgomery. If the asking price for that duo is beyond the Cardinals’ liking, players like Zack Greinke, Eric Lauer and Noah Syndergaard wouldn’t command more than a few million dollars if they’re able to find a major league offer of any kind.
Boras: New Teams Have Reached Out On Snell, Montgomery Since Spring Training Began
Both Blake Snell (Giants, Yankees) and Jordan Montgomery (Red Sox) have had their teams to which they’ve been frequently connected throughout the offseason, but the opening of spring training has brought about some new suitors — at least… according to their agent. Scott Boras tells USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that four clubs who hadn’t been active suitors for Snell and Montgomery have checked in on the pair of lefties since camps opened in mid-February (X link).
On the one hand, it’s a wholly unsurprising comment. Both pitchers remain unsigned with seemingly limited markets — at least, insofar as who could offer them the of long-term deal or (in Snell’s case), short-term, opt-out laden, high-AAV deal they’re reported to be seeking. As such, it’s only natural their representative would work to dispel the notion that there are few viable landing spots.
On the other, there’s also surely at least some truth to the statement. Spring training annually brings about pitcher injuries of note. Already, we’ve seen Orioles starter Kyle Bradish diagnosed with a UCL sprain that will impact his availability for the regular season and could portend a long-term absence, depending how he progresses after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection. Mets righty Kodai Senga has been diagnosed with a capsule strain in his shoulder and is expected to open the year on the injured list. The Astros announced some early shoulder concern for Justin Verlander and J.P. France, though both righties have progressed well since. The Giants will be without fifth starter Tristan Beck for quite some time as he undergoes surgery to treat an aneurysm in his shoulder.
The shifting of contract goals for the pair of lefties is sure to bring about new interest as well. Several reports over the past week have indicated that Snell is increasingly amenable to a short-term deal with a high annual value and multiple opt-out opportunities. Fellow Boras clients Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman signed similar deals. Montgomery, by most accounts, is still looking for a long-term arrangement, but it’s only natural for teams to check the extent to which (if any) his ask on a long-term pact might have fallen. It also bears mentioning, of course, that a team reaching out to inquire on where things stand with a player’s market is far from the same as expressing legitimate interest in meeting what’s sure to be an enormous asking price on either left-hander.
The further the potential length of a contract drops, the more additional suitors could join the fray. The Twins’ original signing of Carlos Correa, for example, only came about after it became clear he’d be open to a three-year deal with multiple opt-outs. Reports all offseason suggested the Cubs were reluctant to go too long-term on Bellinger, but he wound up back at Wrigley Field once he pivoted to the short-term route. Any lower-payroll club with a win-now mindset and ample payroll space in the short-term could perhaps convince itself to stretch beyond comfort levels in 2024 if it means signing a player who’d be wholly out of their price range under more conventional market conditions.
Suffice it to say, there’s ample reason to take Boras’ comments with a hefty grain of salt — but it’s also surely true that circumstances surrounding the rotation mix of several clubs have changed. Whether that leads to any new offers remains to be seen. Even with Bradish ailing, for instance, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that he’d be “floored” if the Orioles pursued a short-term opt-out-laden deal with Montgomery and adds that any high-profile free agent addition remains very unlikely in Baltimore.