Cafardo’s Latest: Analytics, Archer, Soler, Lucroy, Byrd
John Henry’s recent comments about how the Red Sox have “perhaps overly relied on numbers” in recent years and became too focused on analytics drew quite a bit of reaction from around baseball, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo writes. MLB Network’s Brian Kenny believes “the enemy of the Red Sox is impatience, not analytics,” noting that properly analyzing the numbers could’ve told Boston that Jackie Bradley or Rusney Castillo wouldn’t be stars overnight, or that Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval were risky signings. On the other hand, some scouts praised the Sox for their apparent turn to traditional evaluation over sabermetrics. The Red Sox have been at the forefront of the analytics movement over the last 15 years, so if they succeed in this new direction, Cafardo wonders if other teams could follow suit. Here’s more from Cafardo’s latest column…
- Cafardo points to one notable victory for scouting over analytics from 2011, when the Rays‘ then-top scout convinced Andrew Friedman to obtain Chris Archer as part of the eight-player blockbuster that sent Matt Garza to the Cubs. The scout was sold on Archer, while Friedman’s analytics evaluation were pointing him towards righty Chris Carpenter, who ended up pitching only 15 2/3 innings at the MLB level.
- There’s still “a lot of interest” in Jorge Soler on the trade market, which is an option for the Cubs as they sort out their crowded outfield. With Dexter Fowler rather unexpectedly returning to Chicago, the Cubs have Jason Heyward playing every day in right (or sometimes center) and then Fowler, Soler, Kyle Schwarber and possibly minor league signee Shane Victorino all juggling for playing time, plus Ben Zobrist and Javier Baez also capable of playing left.
- The Brewers are still considering a Jonathan Lucroy trade, as “there’s still buzz in the scouting community” that a deal could come in Spring Training. Lucroy would have to prove himself healthy in the wake of a 2015 season shortened by a concussion and a fractured toe. If he looks good in Cactus League action, that could be enough for another team to pull the trigger on a deal.
- It’s been a quiet offseason for Marlon Byrd rumors, as Cafardo notes that the veteran outfielder “isn’t getting much love on the market.” Interest in Byrd could pick up as teams sort through their roster options, however, and Cafardo lists the Angels, Blue Jays and Orioles as speculative fits. Byrd had 24 homers and an .847 OPS as recently as the 2013 season, but while he’s still managed to hit for power (48 homers) over the last two years, the 38-year-old’s batting average and OBP have fallen off considerably.
Latest On Rays’ Pitching
With many — but not all — of the top free agent arms now gone from the market, the Rays appear to be ramping up discussions involving their pitchers. Tampa Bay has long been said to be willing to listen on its array of starters and late-inning relievers, though it hasn’t made any deals since shipping Nate Karns to the Mariners to kick off the winter’s activities.
Here’s the latest:
- The Rays are engaged in “‘many’ active trade conversations” involving pitching, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported yesterday on Twitter. It seems as if the club’s previous talks, which appeared to have some steam during the Winter Meetings, have been re-joined now that the market has gained additional clarity.
- Indeed, Tampa Bay has “picked up the pace” on discussions, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. The team is still holding conversations involving top relievers Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger as well as various starters. The one name that clearly is not in play is staff ace Chris Archer.
- The Cubs have remained in “constant contact” with the Rays, reports Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (audio link). It’s previously been suggested that Chicago could have interest in Alex Cobb, but Bowden hints that Jake Odorizzi could make a nice fit for Chicago in a deal. The hang-up, though, is that the Cubs are trying to swing a deal without giving up Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, or other major league pieces.
Quick Hits: Soler, Lucroy, Swanson, Chen
In a radio interview on The 670 Score’s “Inside The Clubhouse” show, Theo Epstein said the Cubs are committed to Jorge Soler as a big part of their roster, CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine reports. “We are putting our stock into his future,” Epstein said. “Barring anything [an overwhelming trade offer], he knows to ignore all the trade rumors and take it as a compliment.” Epstein praised Soler’s hitting potential and his offseason training, as Soler “is down to 225 [pounds] and is working hard on his quickness and flexibility” to improve his right field defense. The Cubs could add a defense-first backup outfielder, Epstein hinted, which probably isn’t a surprise given Soler’s inexperience and the questions about whether or not Kyle Schwarber can handle left field. Here’s some more from around baseball…
- The Brewers don’t want to sell low on Jonathan Lucroy in the wake of his underwhelming 2015 season, though they could be taking a risk by waiting to make a trade, Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan writes in a piece for FOX Sports. If Lucroy’s concussion and injury history continues to diminish his ability, Milwaukee will have missed its window to recoup significant value for the former All-Star. Midseason deals for catchers are also somewhat uncommon, as it’s somewhat hard for a new catcher to instantly develop a rapport with pitchers.
- The Braves targeted Dansby Swanson even before they created room at short by dealing Andrelton Simmons, GM John Coppolella tells Fangraphs’ David Laurila. “We’ve been in talks with Arizona since the end of the 2015 season,” Coppolella said. “We hoped to get Swanson, but we didn’t know if, or how, the deal would materialize. We saw him as a fit for us, whether we made the Simmons trade or not. We just want really good players and he’s a really good player.”
- Wei-Yin Chen may have the most value of any remaining free agent pitcher, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello writes, as he has posted comparable numbers to Jeff Samardzija or Jordan Zimmermann and probably won’t cost as much. Of course, Chen and his agent Scott Boras are looking for healthy compensation for the southpaw’s services in the form of a five-year, $100MM contract.
- While opt-out clauses are usually considered to provide little benefit to a team, the Boston Herald’s Scott Lauber notes that there’s certainly upside if a club can avoid paying big money to a player outside of his prime years. For instance, Lauber reports that had the Red Sox been successful in obtaining Alex Rodriguez from the Rangers in the 2003-04 offseason, they had no intention of re-signing him after he opted out of his deal (as expected) after the 2007 season. The Yankees, who did deal for A-Rod and then re-signed him to a whopping 10-year, $275MM contract after 2007, have surely regretted not letting Rodriguez walk when they had the chance.
- Blue Jays director of analytics Joe Sheehan is profiled by the Toronto Star’s Brendan Kennedy, who notes that Sheehan’s promotion to the newly-created position is a sign of the team’s increased focus on analytics under Mark Shapiro.
- The Giants are the most likely team to sign Yoenis Cespedes, MLB.com’s Jim Duquette opines. The Tigers, Orioles, White Sox and Angels round out Duquette’s list of Cespedes’ most likely landing spots.
Central Notes: White Sox, Frazier, Cubs, Indians, Pearce
Even after adding Brett Lawrie, Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro, GM Rick Hahn wants to continue to upgrade the White Sox‘ offense, Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com writes. “We’re pleased with the improvements we’ve made thus far, but in our minds we hope to continue and don’t feel we’re done,” says Hahn. The White Sox finished last in the AL in runs scored last season, with 622. One potential trade target who could provide a big boost to the White Sox is Todd Frazier of the Reds, about whom CSN Chuck Garfien reports the White Sox have had talks (on Twitter). Right now, however, there doesn’t seem to be much traction between the two sides, with the White Sox believing the Reds are asking for too much. A Frazier acquisition doesn’t necessarily seem likely, but if it were to occur, Lawrie would likely move to second base, one of several positions where the White Sox struggled last year. The Reds are reportedly shopping Frazier aggressively. Here are more quick notes from the Central divisions.
- The Cubs and Indians discussed a trade that would have sent either Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar to Chicago, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi tweets. In return, the Indians would have received a package including outfielder Jorge Soler. Talks between the two sides appear to have stalled, however, so it does not seem a deal is imminent.
- The Indians have had interest in Steve Pearce, tweets Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer. Pearce is coming off a .218/.289/.422 season in Baltimore, but he was terrific in 2014 and is capable of playing first base or either corner outfield spot, plus second base in a pinch. That sort of flexibility would surely be valuable to Cleveland, although he’d likely mostly play outfield there. Pearce’s market has mostly been quiet this winter (although he’s been connected to the Rangers). As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted in September, it’s difficult to tell how teams will value Pearce, given his unusual skill set and the strange manner in which his career has unfolded.
Latest On Cubs’ Search For Outfielders
The Cubs are among the teams with interest in free agent outfielder Denard Span, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Chicago is also continuing to pursue Jason Heyward, Heyman adds, as has been reported previously.
Span comes to the free agent market offering the upside of a high-quality regular at a reduced asking price. He’s nearing 32 years of age and, more importantly, has dealt with fairly significant core muscle and back issues.
But Span has been excellent when healthy, slashing a combined .301/.358/.421 over the past two seasons with 42 stolen bases in 943 plate appearances. He could provide a near-term replacement for fellow free agent Dexter Fowler in center.
It’s not immediately clear whether the team has any inclination to add multiple outfielders. Notably, the addition of Ben Zobrist provides another outfield-capable player to the mix.
If Chicago were to add multiple outfielders, that would certainly seem likely to be done in concert with a trade involving one or more of the team’s current players. Per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter), Chicago was second in the bidding for Shelby Miller and was willing to send Jorge Soler to Atlanta. That doesn’t mean that Soler is being shopped around, of course, but does suggest that the club feels comfortable parting with him in the right scenario.
Latest On Shelby Miller Trade Talks
12:47AM: Other sources tell Wittenmyer that no deal between the two sides is close. Jorge Soler is still a part of trade discussions between the Cubs and Braves (Twitter links).
12:35AM: The Braves and Cubs are close to a deal that would involve righty Shelby Miller going to Chicago and slugging infield prospect Javier Baez headed to Atlanta in the return, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports (Twitter link).
Miller has been one of the winter’s most oft-discussed trade candidates, with as many as 20 teams reportedly checking in on his availability. Atlanta has demanded a major return in any deal for the 25-year-old starter, with such names as the Diamondbacks’ A.J. Pollock, the Yankees’ Luis Severino and the Marlins’ Marcell Ozuna all being asked about in talks with their respective clubs. The Cubs were one of several teams linked with Miller, with Jorge Soler and Baez both being mentioned as possible trade chips.
AL East Notes: Yankees, Alvarez, Red Sox, Rays, Orioles
Yankees GM Brian Cashman is downplaying the team’s interest in free agents, writes George A. King III of the New York Post. The Yankees are shopping veterans Ivan Nova, Brett Gardner, and Andrew Miller, but talks have subsided for the moment. According to Cashman, “I think it’s more likely that we keep them than move them. I say that recognizing that if someone wants to ring a bell that I’ve put out there, that could happen.”
Here’s more from the AL East:
- The Yankees don’t have a spot for recently non-tendered slugger Pedro Alvarez, writes King. Before considering the roster, Alvarez sounds like a decent fit. As a youth, Alvarez attended school in the Bronx and played for the Bayside Bombers – an elite travel team based in the area. Yankee Stadium is also extremely friendly to left-handed power. However, the Yankees are swamped with designated hitters. Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, and prospect Greg Bird all overlap to some degree.
- New York could try to upgrade in the middle infield next week, writes Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Rob Refsnyder and Dustin Ackley are expected to platoon at second base, but Cashman will continue to monitor the market for more reliable alternatives. Feinsand offers Howie Kendrick, Brandon Phillips, and Martin Prado as three players to watch. Kendrick is a free agent while Phillips and Prado would have to be acquired via trade.
- Owner John Henry says the Red Sox could add another starter, writes John Tomase of WEEI.com. Boston inked David Price to a record breaking contract earlier in the week. Per Henry, “I do think there is trade potential. We have a lot of pitching and we have a lot of talent. We’re not going to trade away our core young players, but we might be able to get a core young pitcher.” Henry did mention that the asking price for high quality pitchers is probably out of their range.
- The Rays also aren’t a fit for designated hitters Alvarez or Chris Carter, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Tampa would have to make a trade to open playing time for them. The club is likely looking to trade pitching for young hitters like Jorge Soler or Javier Baez.
- The large contracts signed by Price and Zack Greinke could take the Orioles out of the market for Chris Davis, opines Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun. Schmuck figures the floor for Davis is probably around $150MM – more than double the biggest free agent deal ever inked by the Orioles. The market for hitters has been much slower to establish itself, so there is still a change we’ll be surprised. For now, I agree Davis may wind up outside of Baltimore’s price range.
- The Orioles aren’t usually flashy participants at the Winter Meetings, but they do have a few needs to fill, write Eduardo A. Encina and Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Davis, the rotation, and the outfield are obvious concerns. The bullpen could be a challenge to buoy if Darren O’Day signs elsewhere. The Nationals and Orioles are considered front runners for his services. Baltimore likes to make Rule 5 picks under Dan Duquette. The club already has to roster Dylan Bundy who is out of options – possibly preventing them from keeping a pick.
Stark’s Latest: Cueto, Leake Miller, Indians, Rays
Here are the latest starting pitcher rumors in advance of the winter meetings, courtesy of ESPN’s Jayson Stark.
- Johnny Cueto is the top pitcher on the free agent market, but his earning potential remains unclear. Some insiders are surprised he turned down the six-year, $120MM offer previously extended by the Diamondbacks. As Stark points out, Cueto is sixth among active starters with a 3.30 ERA so he would seemingly justify a serious investment. However, concerns about his health and late-season struggles have executives worried. Per one source, “If you told me that, within 24 hours [of arriving at the meetings], all of the big free-agent starters would be signed except Cueto, I’d believe it.“
- Former Reds starter Mike Leake, 28, is in demand largely because he’s one of the youngest pitchers on the market. He has a history of durability, but that comes with league average production on the mound. However, Leake is also well-above average as a hitter, boosting his value to NL clubs. Stark expects a “stampede” in Leake’s direction during the Winter Meetings. One source believes Leake will be overpaid by an exuberant market.
- The Braves would jump on a Shelby Miller trade if they received the right controllable position player. To date, Atlanta has focused on particularly high value targets like Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock, and Jorge Soler. As you might guess, few if any teams are eager to trade established, high quality young hitters for pitching. The Braves have shown no sign of backing down on their asking price.
- We’ve heard a lot about the Indians pitching depth – namely Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. Stark and his sources think the club will stand pat this winter. “You’re just shifting around your problems,” said one contact in regard to a hypothetical pitcher-for-hitter swap. The team’s strength is built around their rotation. They may be best served by simply maximizing that advantage.
- With the exception of Chris Archer, the Rays are shopping all of their starting pitchers. That’s par for the course for the Rays who historically have been open to trading anybody to improve the long term outlook of the franchise. Stark specifically mentions Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore as available, but we can probably presume that Erasmo Ramirez is being floated too.
- Stark offers plenty of more notes in his column including the latest on the Yankees, Padres, and the remaining buyers for pitching.
Latest On Shelby Miller
We’ve heard a wide variety of rumors regarding trade interest and possible proposals for Braves righty Shelby Miller. While it seems that the Braves remain more than willing to move him in the right scenario, the club is nevertheless holding firm on its asking price, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter links).
Despite reportedly widespread interest, it appears that no team has stepped up its bid to a sufficiently enticing level in this relatively early stage of the offseason. That makes it increasingly likely that the 25-year-old will open the season in Atlanta, per Crasnick, though obviously there’s ample time remaining to find a match.
One team said to have interest in Miller is the Cubs, with the Braves reportedly intrigued in turn by young outfielder Jorge Soler. But that’s not a perfect fit, Crasnick suggests (links to Twitter), because Atlanta has committed itself to Nick Markakis and Hector Olivera in the corner outfield for the next several seasons. Of course, given Atlanta’s oft-demonstrated penchant for shifting assets to find value and add controllable assets that it believes in, it would still seem plausible that something could be arranged if the affinity for Soler is as strong as has been suggested.
Meanwhile, per the report, Chicago “would prefer” to center a deal around Javier Baez or Starlin Castro. Both are probably capable of playing short, second, or third, making them good potential matches (on paper, at least) with Atlanta’s long-term needs in the infield. Nevertheless, Crasnick says it’s “not an ideal fit from either side,” seemingly suggesting that the Braves aren’t that enticed by those particular young infielders.
Olney’s Latest: Price, Greinke, Carrasco, Shark, Cubs, Heyward
ESPN’s Buster Olney begins his latest Insider-only blog post by offering his take on David Price‘s deal with the Red Sox. Olney notes that while the blame for Boston’s failure to retain Jon Lester as its ace lies on owner John Henry and not former GM Ben Cherington, Henry deserves credit for recognizing the mistake and going to the measures necessary to bolster his rotation. Rival evaluators have wondered to Olney how Price will adapt to losing his velocity as he ages, but for the short-term, Price gives Boston exactly what it needed — an ace to front the rotation and shift names like Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Eduardo Rodriguez and the injury-prone Clay Buchholz down the rotation.
Some more highlights from Olney’s column…
- Price’s signing creates a perfect storm for Zack Greinke, who now stands alone as the top free agent starter on the market with a pair of division rivals — the Giants and Dodgers — bidding against one another to secure his services. One person close to the situation suggested to Olney that Greinke could land a five-year deal worth $165MM (an average annual value of $33MM), which meshes with a recent report from ESPN’s Jayson Stark that said Greinke could take a five-year deal if it meant a sizable increase over Price’s AAV.
- The Indians have been listening to offers on their young starters, but the price tags for pitchers like Price and Greinke have underscored the value of controllable, young arms like Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, leading to a perhaps exorbitant asking price. For instance, the Indians asked the Giants for a package that included both Brandon Belt and Joe Panik in exchange for Carrasco in recent talks, according to Olney. While some Giants fans may recoil at the notion, Olney writes that with pitchers such as J.A. Happ commanding $36MM over three years, Carrasco’s four-year, $22MM contract and two club options come with incredibly high value. Carrasco talks between the two sides are dead at this point, he adds.
- The Cubs have been positioning themselves for a run at Jeff Samardzija since before Price made his final decision. The Giants are among the other clubs with interest in Samardzija, according to Olney, who wonders if the teams that missed out on both Price and (eventually) Greinke will then check in with Johnny Cueto as an alternative.
- The Cardinals have at least spoken to Greinke, but there’s no indication that they’re prepared to compete with the Dodgers and Giants for his services, making it seem unlikely that they’ll emerge as a late dark-horse candidate in his market.
- The Cubs weren’t comfortable with the notion of roughly $55MM per season for a pair of pitchers each season for the foreseeable future, referring to a potential combo of Price and Lester. Olney calls a swap of Jorge Soler and Braves right-hander Shelby Miller a potential plan B for Chicago, which would then free up the club to make a run at Jason Heyward.