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Stark’s Latest: Cueto, Leake Miller, Indians, Rays

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Here are the latest starting pitcher rumors in advance of the winter meetings, courtesy of ESPN’s Jayson Stark.

  • Johnny Cueto is the top pitcher on the free agent market, but his earning potential remains unclear. Some insiders are surprised he turned down the six-year, $120MM offer previously extended by the Diamondbacks. As Stark points out, Cueto is sixth among active starters with a 3.30 ERA so he would seemingly justify a serious investment. However, concerns about his health and late-season struggles have executives worried. Per one source, “If you told me that, within 24 hours [of arriving at the meetings], all of the big free-agent starters would be signed except Cueto, I’d believe it.“
  • Former Reds starter Mike Leake, 28, is in demand largely because he’s one of the youngest pitchers on the market. He has a history of durability, but that comes with league average production on the mound. However, Leake is also well-above average as a hitter, boosting his value to NL clubs. Stark expects a “stampede” in Leake’s direction during the Winter Meetings. One source believes Leake will be overpaid by an exuberant market.
  • The Braves would jump on a Shelby Miller trade if they received the right controllable position player. To date, Atlanta has focused on particularly high value targets like Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock, and Jorge Soler. As you might guess, few if any teams are eager to trade established, high quality young hitters for pitching. The Braves have shown no sign of backing down on their asking price.
  • We’ve heard a lot about the Indians pitching depth – namely Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. Stark and his sources think the club will stand pat this winter. “You’re just shifting around your problems,” said one contact in regard to a hypothetical pitcher-for-hitter swap. The team’s strength is built around their rotation. They may be best served by simply maximizing that advantage.
  • With the exception of Chris Archer, the Rays are shopping all of their starting pitchers. That’s par for the course for the Rays who historically have been open to trading anybody to improve the long term outlook of the franchise. Stark specifically mentions Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore as available, but we can probably presume that Erasmo Ramirez is being floated too.
  • Stark offers plenty of more notes in his column including the latest on the Yankees, Padres, and the remaining buyers for pitching.

Latest On Shelby Miller

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We’ve heard a wide variety of rumors regarding trade interest and possible proposals for Braves righty Shelby Miller. While it seems that the Braves remain more than willing to move him in the right scenario, the club is nevertheless holding firm on its asking price, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter links).

Despite reportedly widespread interest, it appears that no team has stepped up its bid to a sufficiently enticing level in this relatively early stage of the offseason. That makes it increasingly likely that the 25-year-old will open the season in Atlanta, per Crasnick, though obviously there’s ample time remaining to find a match.

One team said to have interest in Miller is the Cubs, with the Braves reportedly intrigued in turn by young outfielder Jorge Soler. But that’s not a perfect fit, Crasnick suggests (links to Twitter), because Atlanta has committed itself to Nick Markakis and Hector Olivera in the corner outfield for the next several seasons. Of course, given Atlanta’s oft-demonstrated penchant for shifting assets to find value and add controllable assets that it believes in, it would still seem plausible that something could be arranged if the affinity for Soler is as strong as has been suggested.

Meanwhile, per the report, Chicago “would prefer” to center a deal around Javier Baez or Starlin Castro. Both are probably capable of playing short, second, or third, making them good potential matches (on paper, at least) with Atlanta’s long-term needs in the infield. Nevertheless, Crasnick says it’s “not an ideal fit from either side,” seemingly suggesting that the Braves aren’t that enticed by those particular young infielders.

Olney’s Latest: Price, Greinke, Carrasco, Shark, Cubs, Heyward

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ESPN’s Buster Olney begins his latest Insider-only blog post by offering his take on David Price’s deal with the Red Sox. Olney notes that while the blame for Boston’s failure to retain Jon Lester as its ace lies on owner John Henry and not former GM Ben Cherington, Henry deserves credit for recognizing the mistake and going to the measures necessary to bolster his rotation. Rival evaluators have wondered to Olney how Price will adapt to losing his velocity as he ages, but for the short-term, Price gives Boston exactly what it needed — an ace to front the rotation and shift names like Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Eduardo Rodriguez and the injury-prone Clay Buchholz down the rotation.

Some more highlights from Olney’s column…

  • Price’s signing creates a perfect storm for Zack Greinke, who now stands alone as the top free agent starter on the market with a pair of division rivals — the Giants and Dodgers — bidding against one another to secure his services. One person close to the situation suggested to Olney that Greinke could land a five-year deal worth $165MM (an average annual value of $33MM), which meshes with a recent report from ESPN’s Jayson Stark that said Greinke could take a five-year deal if it meant a sizable increase over Price’s AAV.
  • The Indians have been listening to offers on their young starters, but the price tags for pitchers like Price and Greinke have underscored the value of controllable, young arms like Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, leading to a perhaps exorbitant asking price. For instance, the Indians asked the Giants for a package that included both Brandon Belt and Joe Panik in exchange for Carrasco in recent talks, according to Olney. While some Giants fans may recoil at the notion, Olney writes that with pitchers such as J.A. Happ commanding $36MM over three years, Carrasco’s four-year, $22MM contract and two club options come with incredibly high value. Carrasco talks between the two sides are dead at this point, he adds.
  • The Cubs have been positioning themselves for a run at Jeff Samardzija since before Price made his final decision. The Giants are among the other clubs with interest in Samardzija, according to Olney, who wonders if the teams that missed out on both Price and (eventually) Greinke will then check in with Johnny Cueto as an alternative.
  • The Cardinals have at least spoken to Greinke, but there’s no indication that they’re prepared to compete with the Dodgers and Giants for his services, making it seem unlikely that they’ll emerge as a late dark-horse candidate in his market.
  • The Cubs weren’t comfortable with the notion of roughly $55MM per season for a pair of pitchers each season for the foreseeable future, referring to a potential combo of Price and Lester. Olney calls a swap of Jorge Soler and Braves right-hander Shelby Miller a potential plan B for Chicago, which would then free up the club to make a run at Jason Heyward.

Braves Listening On Shelby Miller; Interested In A.J. Pollock, Jorge Soler

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6:56pm: The Braves continue to ask the Diamondbacks for A.J. Pollock, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter). After the D-backs initially rejected Atlanta’s proposal of Miller for Pollock, the Braves came back with an offer of Miller and right-hander Arodys Vizcaino for Pollock and minor league right-hander Aaron Blair, which Arizona also rejected.

Clearly, while the Braves are in a state of rebuilding, there’s interest on their behalf in adding a piece that can help them in 2017, when much of the team’s young stable of pitching prospects will be emerging onto the Major League scene. Both Pollock and Soler (mentioned in the previous update) fit that bill, with Soler possessing even more club control than Pollock, who is a free agent after three seasons (the same as Miller).

6:40pm: Shelby Miller’s name is one of the most popular on the rumor circuit at present, with recent reports indicating that as many as 20 teams have checked in on the Atlanta right-hander. Jon Heyman reported yesterday that the Yankees, Marlins, Giants, Dodgers and Diamondbacks are all among the teams to have expressed interest, and further details on the Miller market are beginning to emerge.

Today, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that the Braves are highly interested in Cubs right fielder Jorge Soler, but right-hander Julio Teheran probably isn’t enough to pry Soler away from Chicago (links to Twitter). One person familiar with Atlanta’s thinking also told Crasnick that the Red Sox could be a match, though that tweet preceded tonight’s record-setting agreement with David Price.

Meanwhile, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Giants are the teams that appear to be the most interested in Miller, but the Braves might be waiting until Price’s deal becomes official and Zack Greinke makes a decision before ultimately determining whether or not they should move Miller. Greinke is said to be choosing between San Francisco and L.A., so it stands to reason that whichever club loses out on Greinke could show an increased willingness to part with talent to land Miller.

Heyman hears that one name that’s unlikely to be included in a Miller deal is Joc Pederson (Twitter link), The Dodgers have “made clear” that they’d prefer to deal from their deep well of prospects as opposed to part with Major League ready talent such as Pederson, whose name isn’t involved in trade discussions between the two sides at this time.

The 25-year-old Miller is set to hit arbitration for the first time this winter and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.9MM next season. He’s controllable for three more years and is coming off a fine 2015 campaign in which he recorded a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 47.7 ground-ball rate in 205 2/3 innings. The ERA, ground-ball rate and innings total each ranked as a career-high for the former first-round pick.

Rosenthal On Freeman, Padres, Kemp, Cubs

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This afternoon, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports released a news-filled column with rumblings from around the league.  The whole article is worth a read, but here’s a look at some of the highlights:

  • The Braves are shopping first baseman Freddie Freeman, according to officials from three different clubs that have spoken with Rosenthal.  One of Rosenthal’s sources added that the possibility of Freeman getting traded was “the talk of the [Arizona] Fall League” among scouts earlier this month.  Freeman’s salary is set to rise from $12MM in 2016 to $20.5MM in ’17 and the Braves might not want to pay out those salaries as they look to rebuild.  After trading shortstop Andrelton Simmons, it’s clear that the Braves are not too fearful of the fan backlash that comes from trading star players.
  • Another official asserts that the Braves are “shopping everyone owed money.”  That could mean that the likes of right-hander Julio Teheran, right fielder Nick Markakis, and center fielder Cameron Maybin are for sale.  Earlier today, we learned that some folks within the Orioles organization would be open to a reunion with Markakis.  After a down year, Teheran’s value isn’t as high as that of Simmons, but Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com recently wrote that there’s a “good chance” that he would be made available.
  • Sources tell Rosenthal that the Braves “are talking to a number of…non-compensation free agents, including some veteran relievers.”  Ultimately, Rosenthal writes, it’s hard to tell what the Braves’ goal is in 2016.  In the end, the gameplan might be to sell off Freeman and Teheran, land even more prospects, and land a top choice in the 2017 draft.
  • The Padres are shopping right-hander Tyson Ross and outfielder Matt Kemp, major league sources tell Rosenthal.  Kemp is owed $86MM over the next four years and Rosenthal wonders aloud if the two players could be packaged together in order to facilitate a deal.  Ross, 29 in April, is under club control for two more seasons.  In 2015, he pitched to a 3.26 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 across 33 starts.  Kemp, meanwhile, posted a .265/.312/.443 slash line that was below his career average with 23 homers in 2015 while playing poor defensively.
  • Sources say that the Cubs will “at least explore” the trade interest they are getting in right fielder Jorge Soler and infielder Javier Baez, Rosenthal writes.  Meanwhile, the Cubs do not intend to move third baseman Kris Bryant, shortstop Addison Russell or left fielder Kyle Schwarber.  If the Cubs were to move Soler or Baez, they would likely seek their pitching equivalent, meaning a player with similar service time and talent that’s roughly the same age.
  • The Rays are getting bites on relievers Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger, particularly after the Craig Kimbrel deal, according to sources.  Furthermore, teams are also zeroing in on Rays starters.

NL Central Notes: Cubs, Cards, Reds, Brewers

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As the Cubs head into the offseason, the team is expected to look at reviving many of the summer trade deadline talks that never came to fruition, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. As president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said yesterday, Chicago is after pitching. The team could rejoin its pursuit of pitchers such as Tyson Ross of the Padres, Julio Teheran of the Braves, and Carlos Carrasco of the Indians, per Wittenmyer. Interestingly, he adds that the Cubs are rather enamored of Indians converted outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall, who rather suddenly became an outstanding right fielder last year after moving off of third base. Wittenmyer says it wouldn’t be surprising to see Javier Baez, Starlin Castro, or Jorge Soler (or any two of them) moved for pitching this winter, adding that Atlanta is “especially high on Soler.”

Here are some more notes out of the NL Central:

  • The Cardinals could see some turnover this winter, and MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch takes a look at the overall roster situation. She notes that the organization may not be able to strike as quickly as it has in past offseasons if it makes Jason Heyward a priority, as his market may take a bit longer to come into focus. New reserve options at catcher and the middle infield could be pursued, and bullpen additions — possibly including a re-signing of Carlos Villanueva — appear likely.
  • Meanwhile, the Cardinals will maintain the same coaching staff for 2016, Langosch reports. The whole group had been invited back, and reached new agreements in short order. Serving under manager Mike Matheny once again will be bench coach David Bell, first base coach Chris Maloney, third base coach Jose Oquendo, pitching coach Derek Lilliquist, hitting coach John Mabry, assistant hitting coach Bill Mueller, and bullpen coach Blaise Ilsley.
  • The Reds have announced some coaching staff changes for 2016, with Mark Riggins taking over as the pitching coach and Tony Jaramillo joining the staff as assistant hitting coach. Per the club, Jim Riggleman will remain the bench coach under skipper Bryan Price, while Don Long (hitting), Billy Hatcher (third base), Freddie Benavides (first base), Mack Jenkins (bullpen), and Mike Stefanski (catching) all return.
  • In an inter-division switch, the Brewers have hired away Derek Johnson from the Cubs to serve as their pitching coach, David Kaplan of CSN Chicago and ESPN Chicago reports on Twitter. Johnson had served as the minor league pitching coordinator in Chicago after a lengthy stint at Vanderbilt University’s outstanding baseball program.

 

Cubs Place Jorge Soler, Jason Motte On DL

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The Cubs have placed right fielder Jorge Soler and right-hander Jason Motte on the disabled list due to a strained oblique and a strained right shoulder, respectively, tweets Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com. In corresponding moves, infielder Tommy La Stella and left-hander Zac Rosscup have been recalled from Triple-A, he adds. Levine also tweets that Soler might be out for a month.

The loss of both players thins out the depth of a surging Cubs team that currently sits 6.5 games back from the division lead but has a six-game lead on the Giants for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. While the injuries may not be a significant detriment to the Cubs’ Wild Card chances due to their fairly substantial lead, the Cubs surely would prefer the pair to be healthy and in a good rhythm entering a potential playoff game or series.

Soler, 23, has had a rather disappointing absence of power this season but is hitting a respectable .265/.325/.385 with seven homers on the season. His contributions in 2015 have been about replacement-level when factoring in sub-par defense in right field, but the upside Soler brings (which he displayed in his first taste of big league action in 2014) is greater than that of his replacements. For the time being, the Cubs can use a platoon of Chris Denorfia and Chris Coghlan in right, with La Stella filling in at second base when Coghlan is in the outfield.

The 33-year-old Motte enjoyed a nice first half of the season (in part due to a .240 BABIP), but he’s worked to a 6.00 ERA in the second half (with his BABIP swinging wildly in the other direction — .385). Inconsistencies aside, he’s totaled a 3.91 ERA with 6.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 30.3 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers are a far cry from his best days with the Cardinals in 2011-12, but his absence will nonetheless thin out a bullpen that is already without injured righties Rafael Soriano and Neil Ramirez.

If the Cubs do wish to make an outside addition, there are a handful of relievers that have cleared waivers, though each has his flaws (hence the clearing of waivers). Jonny Gomes is one veteran outfielder that has already cleared waivers. Any player acquired prior to Sept. 1 would be eligible to play in the postseason. The Cubs, however, may simply elect to stay the course until Sept. 1, when expanded rosters will give them the opportunity to bring up additional internal reinforcements.

Cubs Attempted To Acquire Carlos Carrasco, Tyson Ross

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The Cubs aimed high at the trade deadline but ultimately settled for pitchers Dan Haren and Tommy Hunter, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. According to club president Theo Epstein, “the two main players we focused on late ended up not getting moved.” Epstein went on to say that he was aggressive in offering both quality and quantity for top major league talent.

Sources tell Wittenmyer that the two players the Cubs focused upon were pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Tyson Ross. Neither was traded. It was rumored that the Indians were merely gather information about Carrasco’s value while the Padres have been criticized for not knowing “what they really wanted.”

Since signing a four-year, $22MM extension over the offseason, Carrasco has pitched to a 4.03 ERA with 9.90 K/9 and 1.91 BB/9. ERA estimators believe he should be at least a full run better than his ERA, as evidenced by a 2.84 FIP. The 28-year-old also has two affordable option years. It’s hard to imagine that the Indians don’t view Carrasco as a building block. However, it is pragmatic to entertain offers at his physical peak.

Ross agreed to a $5.25MM contract in his second year of arbitration. As a Super Two player, he’ll be eligible for free agency after the 2017 season. Ross has followed up a breakout 2014 with a solid 3.38 ERA, 9.66 K/9, 4.30 BB/9, and a 63 percent ground ball rate.

The Cubs also aggressively shopped shortstop Starlin Castro, but they found few takers. Javier Baez was one of the players discussed as part of a Carrasco package. Meanwhile, the Braves expressed interest in Jorge Soler while discussing Julio Teheran and other young pitchers. Overall, it’s clear that high quality, club controlled pitching is a top priority for Chicago.

Quick Hits: Workman, Ogando, Rockies, Loria

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Twins outfielder Byron Buxton is the top prospect in baseball, per MLB.com’s top 100 prospects. The Cubs have two prospects in the top five – Kris Bryant (second) and Addison Russell (fifth). The Dodgers have three in the top 13 – Corey Seager (seventh), Julio Urias (eighth), and Joc Pederson (13th). The Cubs and Twins are the two teams with five prospects in the top 50. Here’s more news from around the league.

Cubs To Promote Jorge Soler

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Cubs top prospect Jorge Soler will be promoted to the Major Leagues and join the team for tomorrow’s game against Cincinnati, according to David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com (Twitter link).

Jorge Soler

The 22-year-old Soler entered the season ranked as a consensus Top 50 prospect in all of baseball, and while a pair of hamstring injuries has limited him to 61 games, he still ranked 28th on the midseason edition of Keith Law’s Top 50 prospects list over at ESPN.com. Soler has obliterated Rookie-level, Double-A and Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .338/.432/.687 batting line, belting 14 homers, 23 doubles and two triples in just 234 plate appearances.

Law called Soler a “monster if he can just stay on the field,” praising his “electric” bat speed and plus-plus raw power in his midseason scouting report. He also noted that Soler had the offensive ability to profile as a top-10 prospect, but his troubles staying on the field prevented him from being ranked any higher than 28th overall. Additionally, he points out that Soler has the arm and athleticism to profile as an average or better defensive right fielder.

Soler becomes the next elite Cubs prospect to make the jump to the Major Leagues, joining shortstop/second baseman Javier Baez and second baseman/center fielder Arismendy Alcantara. Baez has played second base since his recall (a spot vacated by the trade of Darwin Barney), while Alcantara has shifted to center field. Presumably, Soler will be playing right field at the Major League level, as he has throughout his minor league career.

Soler has already made plenty of headlines in his career, as the Cuban phenom inked a nine-year, $30MM contract with the Cubs back in 2012 just days before the collective bargaining agreement’s new rules on international signings kicked in. Had Soler signed after those rules, as a 20-year-old from Cuba, he would have been limited to a $2.9MM signing bonus.

Soler is guaranteed $2MM in 2014 after earning $1MM in 2012 and 2013. He will earn $2MM in 2015 before his salary rises to $3MM in 2016 and 2017. Soler is technically slated to earn $4MM annually from 2018-20, but his contract allows him to opt into arbitration once he is eligible. The contract, of course, seems light when compared to the contracts signed by Jose Abreu and Rusney Castillo, but keep in mind that Cespedes was 26 when he signed his deal and Abreu was 27.

Because of Soler’s guaranteed contract, the Cubs needn’t worry about service time considerations or Super Two status like they would need to with top prospects such as Kris Bryant and Addison Russell. Additionally, his Major League deal meant that he was already on the 40-man roster, so the Cubs don’t need to concern themselves with clearing a 40-man spot.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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