Kenta Maeda

APRIL 27: The MRI results aligned with expectations. Baldelli told reporters that imaging revealed a muscle strain but no structural damage (via Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic). Maeda is likely to go on the 15-day IL but seems to have avoided a serious issue.

APRIL 26: Twins starter Kenta Maeda is going for an MRI after feeling elbow soreness during this afternoon’s start against the Yankees, manager Rocco Baldelli told the team’s beat (video relayed by Alec Ausmus of KSTP TV). Baldelli indicated the right-hander would “need some time off” but downplayed any major concern.

According to Baldelli, the discomfort appears to be muscular as opposed to indicative of a structural concern. He suggested the team doesn’t believe the issue related to the Tommy John surgery that sidelined Maeda for the entire 2022 campaign. Nevertheless, the suggestion of Maeda taking some time to rest points to a likely trip to the 15-day injured list.

The 35-year-old hurler has had a rough few weeks to open the year. Maeda has been tagged for 16 runs in as many innings. Much of that damage came in today’s loss at the hands of the Yankees, who teed off for ten runs in the first three frames. Given that the veteran hurler was bothered by elbow discomfort for at least part of today’s start, it’s tough to know how much stock to put into his early-season production.

Maeda has spent parts of four seasons with the Twins. He was the AL Cy Young runner-up during the shortened 2020 campaign, the result of a sterling 2.70 ERA across 66 2/3 frames. He’d compiled a 4.66 ERA, albeit with better peripherals, over 21 starts the following year before going under the knife in September 2021.

The rotation had been a problem in the Twin Cities for the past couple seasons. They’d been off to a much better start in 2023 to help the club to a 14-11 first few weeks. Minnesota starters entered play Wednesday with the game’s best ERA (2.62) and most innings pitched (137 1/3), though Maeda’s tough outing today didn’t do them any favors.

Each of Pablo López, Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan is off to a fantastic start to the season. Tyler Mahle hasn’t quite been at that level but he’s had a strong first month in his own right. If Maeda hits the IL, Bailey Ober would seem the top candidate to step into the rotation. A member of the starting five for the past couple seasons, the towering right-hander has spent the bulk of this year with Triple-A St. Paul. Ober came up for a spot start against the Nationals on Sunday; he was promptly optioned back out, though he could be recalled to replace a player going on the IL without spending the otherwise required 15 days in the minor leagues.

3:40pm: It seems like the worst-case scenario has been avoided, as Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports that the X-rays showed no breaks and that Maeda is walking around without the ankle even being wrapped up.

2:46pm: Twins righty Kenta Maeda departed today’s game after two innings upon being struck on the ankle by a comeback line drive off the bat of Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran. Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that he’s undergoing x-rays.

Maeda was able to compose himself and remain upright long enough to gather the ball, make the throw to first base and record an out, but he dropped immediately after making the play. Twins trainers tended to Maeda thereafter, and he was eventually able to walk off the field with minimal assistance (video link).

The 35-year-old Maeda was making just his third start in his return from 2021 surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. He’s been mostly sharp, posting a 4.15 ERA in 13 innings with a terrific 13-to-1 K/BB ratio (23.1 K%, 1.9 BB%). His fastball hasn’t quite been back to where it was in his Cy Young runner-up showing back in 2020 — sitting 91.8 mph then versus 90.4 mph now — but Maeda’s command has been strong.

Maeda’s start against the Red Sox came after just two innings today, which will leave a relatively taxed Twins bullpen to cover quite a bit of work. Long reliever Brent Headrick is unavailable after picking up a three-inning save in last night’s MLB debut, and the Twins used five relievers in an extra-inning affair the night prior. Emilio Pagan came on in relief of Maeda and immediately served up six runs on seven hits in his first frame, so Minnesota is surely reluctant to allocate many (or any) innings today to leverage relievers at this point. A position player could well end up taking some lumps on the mound today at some point.

If Maeda needs to miss any time, the Twins have a handful of already MLB-tested options in Triple-A St. Paul, led by right-hander Bailey Ober. He’s pitched to a 3.82 ERA in 31 starts for Minnesota over the past two seasons and is out to a strong start with the Saints in Triple-A this year, logging a 2.55 ERA through four starts. Other options include right-hander Louie Varland, who made a spot start for Maeda last week when the Twins skipped him in the rotation to afford him some early extra rest, and righty Simeon Woods Richardson, who made his MLB debut late in the 2022 season.

It’s been nearly five months since Twins righty Kenta Maeda underwent Tommy John surgery, and while a September Tommy John procedure often wipes out the following season for a pitcher, Maeda recently told reporters in Japan that he’s aiming for a return this September (link via The Manichi). At present, his recovery appears to be on track, as Maeda revealed he’ll begin playing catch sometime in mid-February.

Maeda, 33, struggled through groin and elbow injuries last season before ultimately going under the knife on Sept. 1. He had an internal brace put into his elbow, which manager Rocco Baldelli said at the time of the surgery could help to expedite the righty’s recovery. There’s obviously a long way to go before it’s clear whether a 2022 return is an actual possibility, but Maeda says it’s “not a zero percent chance” that he can return late in the year.

Acquired in a 2019-20 offseason trade that sent Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers, Maeda was nothing short of brilliant in his first season with Minnesota. The 2020 campaign, of course, was shortened to a 60-game slate, but Maeda made 11 starts and finished second in American League Cy Young voting. That season saw him pitch to a 2.70 ERA with career-best marks in strikeout percentage (32.3%), walk percentage (4.0%), ground-ball rate (49.0%), swinging-strike rate (17.2%) and opponents’ chase rate (40.8%).

This past season was another story entirely. Maeda made 21 starts but tallied just 106 1/3 innings with solid but diminished strikeout and walk rates (24.9% and 7.1%, respectively). His fastball velocity dipped by about a mile per hour, and the elite hard-contact suppression he showed in 2020 trended back toward league-average levels. Along the way, Maeda had multiple IL stints and was the subject of some trade-deadline chatter before finally requiring surgery.

Even though Maeda wasn’t at his best in that injury-plagued 2021 campaign, his absence will nevertheless be felt by a Twins team that still has a dire need for starting pitching. It’s doubtful that Maeda’s surgery would’ve altered the decision to trade Jose Berrios to Toronto in return for a pair of highly touted prospects, but the Twins surely thought they’d have Maeda leading their 2022 staff at the time that deal was made.

Instead, Minnesota entered the offseason knowing that Maeda and Berrios were out of the picture — and also recognizing the possibility of free agent Michael Pineda signing elsewhere. Despite the glaring nature of that rotation deficiency, they’ve yet to really address the matter. Minnesota took a $5MM flier on right-hander Dylan Bundy, hoping they’ll be able to get something closer to the former Orioles/Angels hurler’s 2020 results than his 2021 output, but that’s the lone move the team has made to deepen the staff.

Bundy will join a rotation that should include towering right-hander Bailey Ober, who quietly posted a solid rookie season with a downtrodden Twins club in 2021. Rookie Joe Ryan, an Olympian with Team USA and the centerpiece of the trade that sent Nelson Cruz to Tampa Bay, had a strong September debut with the Twins and looks all but assured a spot as well. Baseball America rated him among the game’s Top 100 prospects just last week.

That said, the Twins sat out the free-agent market for virtually all of the top names — barring Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, who remain unsigned — and will now likely turn to the trade market and/or add another veteran from the lower tiers of the market. (There was some mutual interest in a Pineda reunion late in the season.) Getting Maeda back into the fold in September would be a boon, but for a team whose owner plainly stated the club would not rebuild after a disappointing 2021 season, the lack of activity to date has been rather surprising.