Kerry Carpenter

AL Central Notes: Twins, Miller, Valera, Carpenter

By Mark Polishuk | February 24, 2024 at 1:24pm CDT

The Twins brought back four players from the Mariners in exchange for Jorge Polanco last month, though Minnesota’s first target was right-hander Bryce Miller, Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports. Miller and fellow rookie Bryan Woo were among the most sought-after trade targets of the winter, yet the Mariners weren’t eager to move either pitcher, or anyone from their crop of young and controllable starters. While Polanco fills a big need for Seattle at second base, he is only under team control through the 2025 season, so any kind of Polanco-for-Miller swap would’ve needed to be much different on Minnesota’s end to land Miller’s services.

Have The Tigers Found A Hidden Gem Of A Slugger?

By Mark Polishuk | August 27, 2023 at 9:28am CDT

The 2022 Tigers were baseball’s worst offensive team, as the lineup’s near-total lack of production was the chief cause (even beyond a staggering number of pitcher injuries) for a hugely disappointing 66-96 record in what was supposed to be a return to contention. “Best batter on the 2022 Tigers” is pretty faint praise, and Kerry Carpenter’s 113 plate appearances last season didn’t even make him a qualified hitter, yet Carpenter still took the dubious honor by posting a team-leading 124 wRC+ over his 31 games of work in his rookie season.

While Carpenter hadn’t really been on Detroit’s radar last year amidst the bigger-name veterans or more highly-touted prospects on the roster, a club so suddenly desperate for hitting could hardly afford to look past a promising bat. This earned him a larger share of playing time heading into 2023, though Carpenter had a modest .217/.280/.464 slash line over his first 75 PA this season. He was then dealt another setback when he sprained his right shoulder at the end of April, resulting in about six weeks on the injured list.

Upon returning from the IL, however, Carpenter has not just been the Tigers’ best batter, but also quietly one of the most productive bats in baseball. Since Carpenter was activated on June 9, only nine qualified hitters have topped his 159 wRC+, as he has slashed .317/.380/.575 over 245 PA. He joined the 20-homer club this past Wednesday, with a grand slam that represented all of Detroit’s offense in a 6-4 loss to the Cubs.

These types of numbers are impressive for anyone, but especially for a 19th-round draft pick from the 2019 draft. Carpenter hit well in his first pro season, but likely due to the canceled 2020 minor league campaign, he took a bit of a step back in 2021 with a .752 OPS over 461 PA for Double-A Erie. Carpenter returned to Erie to begin the 2022 season, but he started to tear up pitching at both the Double-A and Triple-A levels, finishing 2022 with a .313/.380/.645 line and 30 homers over an even 400 PA for the two affiliates.

In this sense, Carpenter didn’t exactly come out of nowhere, though few would’ve predicted that he would’ve kept swinging a hot bat in the majors. And, it is worth noting that Carpenter has still totaled only 433 PA in the big leagues — too small a sample size to clearly state that he is truly for real. Carpenter’s walk and strikeout rates are also a bit below the league average, and he has some significant splits, as his left-handed swing is lot more productive against right-handed pitching (.938 OPS) than against southpaws (.724 OPS). Carpenter has also benefited from a .328 BABIP this season, and his .382 wOBA is well above his .362 xwOBA.

That said, a .362 xwOBA ranks in the 87th percentile of all batters, so Carpenter’s production would be very notable if he was “only” delivering at that expected level. His contact and barrel rates are both well north of average, so it isn’t like he is getting lucky on soft contact. And, while we’re still operating within a small overall sample size of career at-bats, Carpenter is doing much better against left-handed pitching in 2023 than he did in 2022.

On the defensive side, Carpenter has made some positive strides as a corner outfielder, spending most of his time in right field this year. A Gold Glove isn’t necessarily in Carpenter’s future, but public metrics have rated his right field work as just a touch below average. The UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved metrics have been more impressed by his 72 1/3 innings in left field, though Carpenter’s solid throwing arm probably makes him a better fit in right field. While more DH at-bats will be available in Detroit once Miguel Cabrera retires, Carpenter certainly looks like at least a passable corner outfielder, which gives the Tigers more flexibility in how they’ll manage their roster going forward.

Detroit’s 2023 offense is still near the bottom of the league, but there have at least been some signs of life with Carpenter’s production, and solid showings from former top draft picks Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson. Blue-chip star prospects like Greene and Torkelson have been the faces of the Tigers’ lineup of the future, but striking paydirt on a less-regarded player or two has always been a key element of any successful rebuild. It looks like the Tigers might have found at least an MLB regular with their 19th-round selection, and Carpenter’s elite production over the last few months might also hint at a higher ceiling.

Tigers Notes: Skubal, Manning, Turnbull, Carpenter

By Nick Deeds | May 27, 2023 at 8:40am CDT

Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press discusses a litany of Tigers injury updates yesterday evening, with news regarding left-hander Tarik Skubal chief among them.

Skubal, 26, underwent surgery on his flexor tendon back in August, but is making steady progress on his rehab. About a month after throwing off a mound for the first time since the surgery, Skubal has taken the next step and begun to face live hitters. Petzold notes that Skubal threw 20-25 pitches and faced Andy Ibanez, Jonathan Schoop, and Nick Maton in the live session. Schoop noted to Petzold that Skubal’s fastball was touching 98, a phenomenal sign for the young left-hander’s progress.

A ninth-round pick by the Tigers in the 2018 draft, Skubal quickly ascended prospect rankings, becoming a consensus top-25 prospect in the game ahead of the 2021 season after making a brief MLB debut during the shortened 2020 season. In 2021, Skubal was given the keys to a spot in the starting rotation, and the results were decent but uninspiring. Skubal posted a roughly league average 4.34 ERA in 149 1/3 innings, but a 5.09 FIP indicates that performance may not have been entirely earned. Skubal’s 25.9% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate were both solid marks, but his overall production was hampered considerably by a massive 20.5% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs.

Fortunately, Skubal managed to turn a corner in 2022. The young lefty was a revelation with the Tigers last season, a rare bright spot in an otherwise dismal season in Detroit. Skubal posted a solid 3.52 ERA, 10% better than league average by measure of ERA+, and paired that with an excellent 2.96 FIP as he maintained his quality strikeout and walk numbers from the previous season while managing to drastically reduce the quality of contact he was allowing. In 2021, Skubal’s 13.9% barrel rate was the worst figure in baseball (min. 140 IP). That figure dropped all the way to 5.5% in 2022, however, good for the 78th percentile in the league, per Statcast. Skubal’s 2022 breakout campaign was, of course, cut short by the aforementioned surgery in August, which limited him to just 117 2/3 innings.

Looking ahead, Skubal figures to provide a huge boost to the Detroit rotation both this season and for the foreseeable future upon his return, assuming he’s able to maintain his 2022 breakout when he returns to the mound. No concrete details on Skubal’s timeline for return are available, though he seems to be ahead of right-hander Matt Manning, who Petzold notes threw off a mound Tuesday for the first time since suffering a fractured foot last month. While Manning initially hoped that he would be able to return to action after six weeks, that timeline was quickly taken off the table when the righty was transferred to the 60-day IL at the end of April. Manning will throw a second bullpen session today but, per Petzold, remains limited to an anti-gravity treadmill for his current running program.

All this suggests the club’s first-round pick in the 2016 draft is still a while away from a return to game action. In 12 starts last season, Manning impressed with a 3.43 ERA and 3.78 FIP in 63 innings of work that earned him a rotation spot on Opening Day this season. In two starts prior to his injury this season, however, Manning struggled badly, allowing a whopping four home runs in just 11 2/3 innings of work. Still, the talented youngster figures to be of great importance to the Tigers going forward, once he’s returned to full health.

Elsewhere among the club’s rotation options, right-hander Spencer Turnbull remains shut down after being placed on the injured list with neck discomfort earlier this month, though a recent MRI revealed the healing process is progressing well so far. Petzold notes that the current plan regarding Turnbull, who struggled to a 7.26 ERA in 31 innings of work this season prior to his placement on the IL, is for the 30-year-old righty to undergo an additional MRI in two weeks. If Turnbull’s neck ailment has cleared up, he’ll likely begin a throwing program at that point. Turnbull, of course, missed most of the 2021 campaign and all of 2022 while undergoing and rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

Rounding out the injury updates is outfielder Kerry Carpenter, who landed on the IL with a shoulder strain last month, began a rehab assignment in Triple-A yesterday. Carpenter impressed with the club in his major league debut down the stretch last season, and his quality performance largely carried over to 2023 prior to his injury. While the 25-year-old Carpenter still has just 188 big league plate appearances under his belt in his career, his slash line of .238/.298/.477 with ten home runs and nine doubles leaves plenty of optimism that Carpenter can contribute to a scuffling Tigers offense upon his return to the big league club.

Tigers Select Andy Ibanez, Place Kerry Carpenter On IL

By Simon Hampton | April 29, 2023 at 8:55am CDT

The Tigers have made a series of roster moves this morning, placing outfielder Kerry Carpenter on the 10-day injured list with a right shoulder strain and selecting the contract of infielder Andy Ibanez. To make room on the 40-man roster for Ibanez, right hander Matt Manning was transferred to the 60-day IL.

Ibanez was outrighted off the Tigers’ roster in January, but returns after hitting .297/.418/.609 with five home runs this year at Triple-A. The 30-year-old made his big league debut for the Rangers two years ago and has slashed a combined .258/.306/.384 with eight home runs across 400 plate appearances. The Tigers claimed him off waivers at the end of last season. The majority of his playing time has been spent at second and third, but he has filled in in the outfield as well as at first.

Carpenter’s hitting .217/.280/.464 with four home runs to begin the season, his second big league campaign. The 19th round pick from 2019 showed a bit more promise last year, but has struggled to start 2023. The 25-year-old broke out in Triple-A last year, slashing .331/.420/.644 with eight home runs in 138 plate appearances, and so while he’s yet to hit a great deal at the big leagues there is a bit of promise there.

Tigers’ Uncertain Outfield Offers Chance For Young Players To Carve Out A Role

By Anthony Franco | January 19, 2023 at 4:42pm CDT

The Tigers have had a fairly quiet offseason. First-year baseball operations leader Scott Harris has shied away from long-term additions on the heels of the team’s “Murphy’s law” 2022 campaign. The club took a couple upside dice rolls on Matt Boyd and Michael Lorenzen for the rotation, likely with an eye towards a possible deadline deal if they get off to strong starts. They’ve shipped out Gregory Soto and Joe Jiménez and could consider further subtractions from the bullpen.

Detroit hasn’t added any slam-dunk regulars on the position player side over the past few months. They brought in a couple upper level players in the Soto deal who could factor into the mix. No one acquired this offseason should be guaranteed an everyday job, and the lineup-wide underperformance last year means there’s plenty of uncertainty around the diamond. That’s particularly true in the outfield, where Detroit has a handful of options who could vie for a spot in A.J. Hinch’s lineup early in the year.

Lineup Locks

Riley Greene

Greene’s a lock for the center field job if healthy. The former fifth overall pick has raked throughout his minor league career and entered 2022 as one of the top handful of prospects in the game. He looked to be trending towards an MLB job out of camp last year but a Spring Training foot fracture kept him on the injured list and required some ramp-up time at Triple-A Toledo.

The Tigers promoted the left-handed hitter in the middle of June. He was the club’s center fielder from then forward, starting 93 games. Greene hit .253/.321/.362 with five home runs through his first 418 MLB plate appearances. While it wasn’t the eye-popping debut enjoyed by some other rookies in the class, hitting at a roughly league level in the majors as a 21-year-old is no small feat. He hit a few too many grounders but posted above-average exit velocities and solid contact skills. It’s a strong offensive foundation and he’s arguably the most important player in the organization. Some prospect evaluators have suggested he might eventually be a better fit for left field than center, but there’s no real reason for Detroit to move him to a corner in what’s going to be an evaluative year anyhow.

Austin Meadows

Like Greene, Meadows will also be an everyday player if healthy. Unfortunately, he’s coming off an almost totally lost season. Acquired from the Rays during Spring Training, he only appeared in 36 games with Detroit during his first year as a Tiger. He battled vertigo-like symptoms early in the year, then lost time after contracting COVID-19. While attempting to ramp back up, he suffered strains in both Achilles tendons. Towards the end of the season, he and the club agreed to shut down his rehab so he could focus on his mental health.

Getting Meadows right both physically and mentally is obviously the top priority and a prerequisite to him rediscovering his past success. He’s shown the ability to be an impact left-handed power bat at his best, twice topping 25 home runs during his time in Tampa Bay. Meadows is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter and should get extended run somewhere, assuming he’s ready to return to the diamond. With two remaining seasons of arbitration control, he could be a deadline trade candidate if he gets back on track.

Immediate MLB Mix

Akil Baddoo

Baddoo looked like a great find for Detroit’s scouting staff in 2021. A Rule 5 draftee from the Minnesota system, he stuck on the roster and played in 124 games as a rookie. Despite making the jump directly from High-A, the left-handed hitter put up a solid .259/.330/.436 line with 13 homers and 18 stolen bases over his first 461 plate appearances in the big leagues. It’d have been a strong showing for any player but was particularly impressive for a Rule 5 selection.

The Tigers secured his long-term contractual rights and opened last season with Baddoo in center field. His second year against big league arms was a significant struggle. He stumbled to a .204/.289/.269 line across 225 trips to the plate, seeing his power production and hard contact rate decline. The Tigers optioned him to Toledo in early May. He responded to the demotion extremely well, hitting .300/.405/.500 in 30 games during his first real upper minors action. Detroit recalled him around the All-Star Break but he again hit at a below-average level down the stretch.

Baddoo is still just 24. He’s shown a patient plate approach at the MLB level and plays plus defense in the corner outfield (though he’s stretched in center field). His strong Triple-A performance means 2022 wasn’t a complete lost year, though he’ll need to make more of an offensive impact against MLB pitching to establish himself. He still has two minor league options remaining, so the Tigers can keep him in Detroit or Toledo depending on his performance.

Kerry Carpenter

A former 19th-round draftee, Carpenter wasn’t regarded by most evaluators as more than an organizational depth player heading into last season. He altered that perception with a breakout showing in the upper minors. Between Double-A Erie and Toledo, Carpenter connected on 30 home runs with a massive .313/.380/.645 line over 400 plate appearances. He earned his first MLB call in August and hit another six longballs with a .252/.310/.485 slash over 31 games.

The 25-year-old has put himself firmly in the mix for playing time. There’s still some skepticism about his viability as a long-term regular, though. He’s limited to the corners and regarded as a below-average defender there, raising the possibility he’s best suited for DH work. He has big power but an aggressive offensive approach that could limit his on-base marks. Baseball America named him the #8 prospect in the Detroit system last month, calling him a possible low-end regular or lefty platoon bat. While that would still be a great outcome for a 19th-round pick, Carpenter should get a chance to see if he can outperform that projection this year. He still has all three options remaining.

Matt Vierling

Acquired from the Phillies in the Soto deal, the 26-year-old Vierling steps right into the outfield equation. He’s appeared in 151 games with Philadelphia over the past two seasons, hitting .260/.309/.374 through 434 plate appearances. After accounting for the Phils’ hitter-friendly ballpark, that checked in 12 percentage points below league average, as measured by wRC+. He hasn’t hit for a ton of power and has walked at just a 6.2% clip, tamping down his on-base numbers.

While Vierling hasn’t established himself against big league pitching, he’s shown some interesting traits. He’s made hard contact at an excellent 48.2% clip while demonstrating strong bat-to-ball skills. A right-handed hitter, he’s posted solid numbers against lefties (.307/.343/.423) while struggling with same-handed pitchers (.227/.285/.339). Vierling bounced around the diamond in Philadelphia, playing all three outfield spots with occasional looks on the infield dirt.

Public defensive metrics haven’t liked his work in center field. He’s probably better suited for a corner while covering center field and second or third base in a pinch. It’s at least easy to see him carving out a multi-positional role against southpaws with the potential to take on more responsibility if he can translate his promising underlying offensive indicators into more consistent production. He has one remaining option season.

Multi-Positional Options

Nick Maton/Ryan Kreidler

Also part of the Soto deal with Philadelphia, Maton’s a left-handed hitting utilityman. He’s mostly an infielder but could see some time in the corner outfield if the Tigers are looking for ways to get him in the lineup. He owns a .254/.330/.434 line in 87 career MLB games and posted a strong .261/.368/.436 showing in 250 Triple-A plate appearances last year.

It’s essentially the same story with Kreidler, whom BA ranked as Detroit’s #9 prospect. He has spent virtually his entire career as an infielder, playing mostly shortstop in the minor leagues. Kreidler’s professional outfield experience consists of two MLB innings of center field work last season, so it’s possible Detroit doesn’t consider him a real option for the outfield. It’s not uncommon to see multi-positional infielders eventually branch out into corner outfield work, though, as expanded defensive flexibility increases their utility off the bench. Kreidler’s a good enough athlete it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Tigers experiment with him in the outfield at some point. The more straightforward path to playing time for both Maton and Kreidler is at second/third base, though.

Eric Haase

Haase has some left field experience in his MLB career. He’s primarily a bat-first catcher who has spent the bulk of his time behind the plate. As things stand, he looks like Detroit’s primary catcher. If a player like Donny Sands, Jake Rogers or non-roster invitee Andrew Knapp seizes the bulk of the catching time, Haase could factor into the corner outfield mix more frequently.

Late-Season Possibilities

Detroit also has a pair of notable outfield prospects who could factor into the mix in 2023. Former second-round pick Parker Meadows had a .275/.354/.466 line with 16 longballs and 17 stolen bases in 113 games for Erie last year. He walked at a strong 10.6% clip while cutting his strikeout rate to a career-low 18.4%. He just turned 23 and is already on the 40-man roster.

Justyn-Henry Malloy, 23 next month, came over from the Braves in the Jiménez trade. The right-handed hitter traversed three minor league levels in 2022, briefly reaching Triple-A after strong showings in both High-A and Double-A. Malloy walked at a massive 18.1% clip en route to a .268/.403/.421 line over 54 Double-A contests. He’s not yet on the 40-man.

Both Meadows and Malloy figure to start the upcoming season with Toledo. There’s no need for Detroit to push either player to the majors before the front office is convinced they’re ready. With another strong upper minors performance, either could put themselves on the map for a midseason promotion. In the interim, the Tigers figure to get looks at players like Baddoo, Carpenter and Vierling to sort out where that group fits in the long-term picture.

Tigers Place Matt Manning On Injured List, Select Miguel Diaz

By Steve Adams | September 29, 2022 at 9:24am CDT

9:24am: The Tigers formally announced the moves. Manning goes directly to the 60-day injured list in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Diaz, although that’s a technicality, as he can be activated as soon as the season is over. The 60-day minimum does not carry over into next season. Carpenter, meanwhile, heads to the 10-day injured list with a lumbar strain, also ending his 2022 campaign.

9:12am: The Tigers have selected the contract of righty Miguel Diaz and will place both right-hander Matt Manning and outfielder Kerry Carpenter on the injured list, tweets Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Kody Clemens has been recalled from Triple-A Toledo alongside Diaz, filling the extra spot on the roster. Manning reported some arm fatigue and tightness in his forearm last night, and while manager A.J. Hinch stated that the team doesn’t believe there’s a serious injury at play, they’ll shut him down for the remainder of the season out of caution (via The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen, on Twitter).

Manning, 24, is the only of the Tigers’ vaunted rotation trio to avoid undergoing surgery this season, though he still missed a substantial portion of the season due to shoulder troubles. Assuming this is indeed a minor arm issue, though, he can be penciled in for Spring Training readiness, which can’t necessarily be said for either Casey Mize (Tommy John surgery in June) or Tarik Skubal (flexor tendon surgery in August). Detroit staked considerable hopes in that trio, and with good reason. Each of the three has impressed on the mound when healthy, but as is so often the case with pitching prospects, injuries have altered the calculus.

Manning’s season will draw to a close with just 63 Major League innings and another 20 1/3 Triple-A frames from a rehab assignment. He was sharp when on the mound, however, giving the Tigers a 3.43 ERA with an 18.3% strikeout rate, a 7.2% walk rate and a 40.1% ground-ball rate. Manning took considerable steps forward from last year’s ugly debut (5.80 ERA in 85 1/3 innings), recording improvements in strikeout rate, walk rate, swinging-strike rate and chase rate on pitches off the plate — all while yielding a much lighter average exit velocity. Injury concerns notwithstanding, there are ultimately quite a few positive takeaways from his second big league season.

Diaz, 27, will get a late look after working 65 innings out of the bullpen in Toledo and pitching to a 4.29 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate, 10.5% walk rate and a hefty 52.3% grounder rate. The right-hander spent the 2017-21 seasons in the Padres organization, dating back to his time as a Rule 5 pick out of the Brewers system in 2016.

San Diego selected Diaz directly out of A-ball and carried him on the roster all season in 2017. The lack of upper-minors seasoning showed, as Diaz was rocked for a 7.34 ERA through 41 2/3 innings as a seldom-used, low-leverage bullpen option. He pitched 42 innings with the Friars just last season, however, logging a much-improved 3.64 ERA with a sharp 26.2% strikeout rate but a bloated 11% walk rate.

Carpenter’s back injury will end a meteoric rise through the system for the former 19th-round pick (2019). After a nondescript run in Double-A last year, Carpenter — who never ranked among the organization’s best prospects — belted 30 home runs and posted OPS marks north of 1.000 in a combined 400 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A before ascending to the Majors.

Carpenter swatted another six round-trippers and hit .252/.310/.485 in 113 plate appearances at the MLB level, firmly inserting himself into the mix for an outfield spot in 2023 and beyond. He won’t get the opportunity to end that storybook season on his own terms, but his rise is one of very few bright spots in an otherwise largely catastrophic Tigers season.

Big Hype Prospects: Grissom, Walker, Holliday, Lee, Painter

By Brad Johnson | August 19, 2022 at 5:15pm CDT

This week on Big Hype Prospects, we check in with a couple recently-promoted Major Leaguers, peek at a couple more on the cusp, and introduce ourselves to some hot-hitting 2022 draftees.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Vaughn Grissom, 21, 2B/SS, ATL (MLB)
35 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .406/.457/.656

Grissom was just playing his way into consensus Top 100 status when the Braves tabbed him for a Major League promotion instead. He had just 98 plate appearances in Double-A after spending much of the season in High-A (344 PA, 11 HR, 20 SB, .312/.404/.487). His numbers have actually improved slightly at each stop. As many have noted (unpleasant noise warning), he’s the second player the Braves have skipped straight past Triple-A. Of course, 35 plate appearances is hardly the basis for Major League success – the true challenge is proving the ability to counter-adjust once the league figures him out. We might not get to that point since Ozzie Albies is approaching a rehab assignment. Grissom will probably hold down the fort until then.

His arrival also has long-term implications. He mostly played shortstop in the minors. So too did Albies back in the day. The club could be using this opportunity to further their postseason bid by using a more dynamic player than Ehire Adrianza while at the same time assessing if a shortstop signing is an urgent need this winter. If they like what they see from Grissom, the Braves might opt to target a lesser free agent like Jose Iglesias or even skip the market altogether.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
430 PA, 15 HR, 17 SB, .310/.393/.522

On Thursday, Walker had his third double-dinger game since July 29. He appears to have accomplished all that he can in Double-A by both improving upon his walk and strikeout rates while continuing to punish the baseball. One of the big impending storylines of free agency is Nolan Arenado’s player option decision. Will he stay or hit the open market? Judging by the ascendancy of Walker, St. Louis might be alright with letting Arenado walk. After all, they can always use Nolan Gorman at third base if Walker isn’t ready in early 2023.

There are still some issues with Walker’s game hidden underneath the beautiful surface level stats. For one, he has a 16.1 percent swinging strike rate. That’s roughly on par with Adolis Garcia, Ryan Mountcastle, Jorge Mateo, and Patrick Wisdom – not exactly the most contact-oriented collection of batters. Moreover, Walker has these whiff issues while running a 45 percent ground ball rate. One of the “tricks” for striking out less is to flatten a swing plane. That adds grounders at the expense of fly balls. Walker has nothing left to give on that front. For what it’s worth, some of the next guys up on the swinging strike rate list are Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Rafael Devers, and Byron Buxton. Stars can sometimes have whiff problems without dreadful strikeout rates.

Jackson Holliday, 18, SS, BAL (CPX)
6-for-15, 1 HR, 1 SB, 5 BB, 1 K

The number one overall pick of the 2022 draft, Holliday arrived with a bang in the complex league this week. He hit his first professional home run on Friday and has a five-to-one walk-to-strikeout ratio. MLB Pipeline already rates him the 14th-best prospect in the league – an aggressive ranking compared with the recent updates from Baseball America (39) and Keith Law (42). Scouting notes on Holliday remain sparse, mostly focusing on his excellent pre-draft conditioning as well as a need to see him against more advanced competition. With the way he’s playing in his first week, a promotion could come soon.

Brooks Lee, 21, SS, MIN (A+)
30 PA, 1 HR, .333/.400/.444

Another recent first-round draftee, Lee made short work of the complex league. The Twins liked his hit tool so much they assigned him straight to High-A. There, he’s more than held his own albeit with more swing-and-miss than expected. Given the aggressive assignment – nearly every player in High-A has years rather than a few scant weeks of professional experience – Lee’s early success is encouraging. Law believes Lee “is the ne plus ultra” of fast-moving college draftees, meaning we could see him broach the Majors as early as next season. Law also considers a move to third base likely while other sources think Lee can stick at shortstop so long as he’s well-positioned.

The ”fast-mover” middle infield profile typically consists of a near-elite hit tool and nonexistent power. Think Nick Madrigal. Lee’s power is more aptly described as nascent. He’s expect to grow into 10 to 20 home runs annually to go with a disciplined, high-average approach.

Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (A+)
(A+) 36.2 IP, 12.03 K/9, 1.72 BB/9, 0.98 ERA

Last week, we covered Ricky Tiedemann in this spot. Many of the same superlatives apply to Painter. He’s the same age as Tiedemann and rapidly ascending towards Top 10 prospect status. He’s one of the best pitchers left in the minors. At present, Painter has a fastball-slider combo that evokes Spencer Strider. Painter lives upstairs with 98-mph heat then drops sharp sliders into the strike zone. Scouting reports indicate his ability to locate the slider outside of the zone is still a work in progress as are the development of a curve and changeup. Given Strider’s success with the same toolkit, Painter might just find his way to the Majors next season as a two-pitch 20-year-old.

Five More

Josh Jung, TEX (24): Last week, we noted Jung’s successful return to Triple-A. Since then, he’s gone 10-for-20 with four home runs, three doubles, two walks, and a strikeout. A promotion should come any day now.

Sal Frelick, MIL (22): Speaking of hot bats, Frelick is hitting .440/.525/.540 through his first 60 Triple-A plate appearances with more walks than strikeouts. The Brewers have fallen three games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central and two games back of the Phillies in the Wild Card race. Milwaukee could consider taking a page from the Braves by promoting Frelick before he’s ticked all the usual developmental boxes. Center field and leadoff hitter are their biggest areas of need. Frelick profiles as Steven Kwan-like.

Brayan Bello, BOS (23): Bello is slated to make a rehab start at Triple-A on Friday. If all goes well, he could return to the Majors in short order. While it’s trendy to count the Red Sox out of the playoff hunt, they’re only five games behind the Rays and Jays. They’re six back of the Mariners. A recovery is certainly possible. Bello, with his domineering stuff and over-60 percent ground ball rate, could be an important piece if Boston is to salvage their season.

Kerry Carpenter, DET (24): A late-bloomer who only started generating hype this season, Carpenter thrashed the upper-minors for 30 home runs in 400 plate appearances. He’s since tacked on two dingers in 25 Major League plate appearances. As expected, he’s shown signs of below average plate discipline and a modest swinging-strike issue in his small sample of big league experience. Overall, his debut has been a rousing success to date so the Tigers have every reason to continue trotting him out on a daily basis.

Marcelo Mayer, BOS, (19): In recent years, we’ve been spoiled with precocious play from young, top prospects. Of all the Top 10 prospect candidates, we’ve had the least to say about Mayer in this column. The long and short of it is he’s having a typical season for a prospect of his age and repute. He hasn’t done anything jaw-dropping while at the same time assuring onlookers of his eventual role as a Major League shortstop of some quality. Personally (remember, I’m not a scout), I see similarities to J.P. Crawford with eventual power outcomes being a tad more accessible/plausible. Since a recent promotion to High-A, he’s hitting .243/.333/.405 in 42 plate appearances.

Tigers To Select Kerry Carpenter

By Anthony Franco | August 10, 2022 at 4:20pm CDT

Aug. 10: The Tigers have announced Carpenter’s selection to reporters, including Woodbery, with righty Beau Brieske being transferred to the 60-day IL in a corresponding move. He will be ineligible to return until 60 days from his initial IL placement, which was due to forearm soreness on July 21. He could technically return in late September, though with the Tigers well out of contention, it seems possible that his season may be finished.

Aug. 9: The Tigers are bringing up corner outfield prospect Kerry Carpenter to make his major league debut, the team informed reporters (including Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). Daz Cameron is being optioned to Triple-A Toledo in a corresponding move. The club will need to clear a spot on the 40-man roster before tomorrow’s game to formally select Carpenter’s contract.

Carpenter, 25 next month, entered pro ball as a 19th-round draft choice back in 2019. The Virginia Tech product wasn’t regarded as a draft prospect of much note and lost his first full professional season to the pandemic cancelation of the minor leagues. He spent last year with Double-A Erie, hitting at a roughly league average level. Few would’ve anticipated he was on the verge of a breakout, but Carpenter has torn the cover off the ball in 2022.

The left-handed hitter started this season back in Erie. He played there through late June, blasting 22 home runs in 63 games. Carpenter’s strikeout and walk rates weren’t great, but his power output was so overwhelming the Tigers bumped him up to Toledo. He’s played 33 games with the Mud Hens and hit even better there than he had in Erie. Carpenter is hitting .342/.433/.667 through 134 Triple-A plate appearances, connecting on eight homers and 11 doubles with matching strikeout and walk rates (12.7% apiece).

Carpenter doesn’t offer much defensive value, so he’ll have to hit at an above-average level to be productive. Baseball America credited him with plus power in ranking him the #12 prospect in the Detroit system midseason, writing that he made some swing changes last offseason that appear to have paid off. He’d have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not added to the 40-man roster at the start of the offseason. As they turn their attention to 2023, the Tigers will get their first look at a player they hope can carve out a regular corner outfield role in the coming years.

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