“No Evidence” Giants Would Trade Lincecum Or Cain
Despite their desperate need for offense, SI.com's Jon Heyman says (on Twitter) there's no evidence the Giants would trade either Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain this offseason. One GM went so far as to say there's "no point even asking."
Cain, 27, will earn $15MM in 2012 before becoming a free agent next winter. Lincecum, also 27, is in line for a historic arbitration payday and won't hit free agency until after the 2013 season. The two right-handers have thrown at least 200 innings in each of the past four seasons, and only once did they post an ERA higher than 3.45 (Cain in 2008). In terms of wins over replacement, Lincecum (24.7) and Cain (15.9) have been the 5th and 15th most valuable pitchers in baseball since the start of 2008, respectively.
Earlier this month, both Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports and Dave Cameron of FanGraphs explored the possibility of the Giants trading Lincecum for multiple pieces to improve their roster overall.
Giants Notes: Pujols, Cain, Lincecum, Zito
Giants GM Brian Sabean and manager Bruce Bochy discussed the 2011 season at a year-in-review press conference today and Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle has the details:
- The Giants are going to focus on the pitching staff before addressing the offense this winter.
- There are strong indications that the Giants won’t push for free agents Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, according to Schulman.
- Sabean won’t rule out a long-term deal for Tim Lincecum, but negotiations with Matt Cain will be a higher priority, since Cain is eligible for free agency one year from now. Lincecum appears to prefer short-term deals anyway.
- Barry Zito and non-tender candidate Jonathan Sanchez will be in Spring Training competing for the rotation, according to Sabean. This is the strongest indication yet that Sanchez will be tendered a contract this offseason. His salary will likely surpass $6MM in 2012.
- Sabean and Bochy said Aubrey Huff didn’t do enough to get in shape last offseason and they have told him to do more this winter.
- The Giants have said they want to upgrade in center field and the leadoff spot. They don’t consider Justin Christian to be the solution, so Schulman wonders if Coco Crisp could be a fit.
- If the Giants don’t pick up Jeremy Affeldt’s $5MM option, they’ll renegotiate another deal with him. As I explained earlier in the month, Affeldt would be in position to command a multiyear deal in free agency if the Giants allow him to hit the open market.
- The Giants will look to add second base depth, though they may not be willing to meet Jeff Keppinger’s asking price.
- Sabean says the Giants will give Cody Ross "due consideration" as a free agent, according to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News (on Twitter).
2011 Vestings Options Update
The season started with nine vesting options to watch, but we're down to just five a little beyond the season's halfway point…
- Trever Miller, Cardinals. The southpaw's $2MM option vests with 45 appearances. He's appeared in 31 of the team's 85 games, so he's on pace for 59. He should get there easily.
- Alex Cora, Mets. Cora's $2MM option vests with 80 games (not necessarily starts), and he's already appeared in 48. He's on pace for 91 games. Luis Castillo's foot and Ruben Tejada's emergence could stand in Cora's way.
- Darren Oliver, Rangers. His $3.25MM option will lock in with 59 appearances. He's already appeared in 37 games, so he should get there without a problem.
- Ramon Hernandez, Reds. Hernandez must play in 120 games for his $3.25MM option to vest. He's appeared in just 57 of Cincinnati's first 86 contests, putting him on pace for 107 games.
- Magglio Ordonez, Tigers. Ordonez's $15MM option vests with 135 starts or 540 plate appearances. He's on pace for 141 and 615, respectively, so it'll take a lengthy stint on the disabled list to knock him off track.
The vesting options for Kerry Wood, Brian Fuentes, Billy Wagner, and Matt Cain have already been addressed.
Olney’s Latest: Lee, Zambrano, Dodgers, Fielder
In today's blog post at ESPN (Insider req'd), Buster Olney says that even though the Yankees already have five good starters, the tight race in the AL East is enough to keep them engaged with the Mariners about Cliff Lee. They will probably make an offer at some point, but they're unlikely to land him because they've been philosophically opposed to trading prospects for a player they could just sign as a free agent after the season.
Here are the rest of Olney's rumors…
- Olney's message to any team looking for bullpen help: Good luck with that. There are no difference-making relievers on the market, and guys like Kerry Wood, David Aardsma, and Jason Frasor are no sure things.
- Carlos Zambrano has some value as an innings eater, and the Cubs could probably get a team to absorb $10-15MM of the $45MM left on his deal. If he does get traded, Olney says it would likely be in the offseason.
- People in the Dodgers' organization say there is "little or no hope" that money will be available for the team to make moves.
- Olney doesn't see the Giants and Brewers matching up in a Prince Fielder trade. Matt Cain is a deal breaker given Tim Lincecum's recent struggles, and Jonathan Sanchez or Madison Bumgarner won't be enough.
2011 Vesting Options Update
We entered the season with nine 2011 vesting option situations to watch. With one month in the books, several have already been pretty much decided. Let's take a look.
- Brian Fuentes, Angels. A back strain put Fuentes on the DL for a little while, making it unlikely he reaches 55 games finished. He'd need 51 in the team's remaining 136 games to cause his $9MM option to vest.
- Billy Wagner, Braves. Wagner's $6.5MM option vests with 50 games finished. He's finished eight games so far, and would have a shot at 50. However, the 38-year-old lefty recently told Braves manager Bobby Cox he'll retire after the season.
- Trever Miller, Cardinals. His $2MM option vests with 45 games, and he's appeared in seven so far. That's behind Miller's typical pace; he's averaged 71 the last three years. It's probably random, and Miller should still reach 45 games.
- Matt Cain, Giants. The $6.25MM option probably would've vested, but the Giants decided to guarantee Cain's 2011 salary at $7MM as part of an extension.
- Kerry Wood, Indians. His $11MM option vests with 55 games finished, but a back injury has Wood just now approaching his 2010 big league debut.
- Alex Cora, Mets. His $2MM option vests with 80 starts. He's started ten games so far. With Luis Castillo and Jose Reyes in the Mets' middle infield, we can't rule this one out yet.
- Darren Oliver, Rangers. His $3.25MM option vests with 59 appearances. He's already made a dozen, so this is looking likely.
- Ramon Hernandez, Reds. His $3.25MM option vests with 120 games played. Hernandez is at 16 so far, with the red-hot Ryan Hanigan getting more playing time recently.
- Magglio Ordonez, Tigers. His $15MM option vests with 135 starts or 540 plate appearances. He's at 25 games started and 113 plate appearances, so he'll get there barring injury.
- We're down to five vesting options to monitor: Miller, Cora, Oliver, Hernandez, and Ordonez. Also keep an eye on Francisco Rodriguez, whose scary $17.5MM option for 2012 vests with 100 games finished in 2010-11, 55 games finished in '11, and a successful physical after the '11 season. K-Rod has finished nine games on the young season.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Strasburg, Collusion, Cain
On this day ten years ago, Indians' starter Chuck Finley struck out Tom Evans, Royce Clayton, Chad Curtis, and Rafael Palmeiro in the same inning after Curtis reached base on a passed ball. There have been 50 instances in baseball history where a pitcher struck out four men in one inning, but Finley did it three times, the only guy to do it more than once. Scot Shields is the last pitcher to strike out four in one frame, doing it less than a week after Scott Baker accomplished the same feat in June of 2008.
Let's take a look at what's being written around the baseball blogosphere…
- Titletahn wrote about the experience of seeing Stephen Strasburg's first professional start in person.
- MLB Fan Nation wonders if teams are colluding against free agents, or if they're just getting smarter.
- Statistician Magician ranks all 30 organization, with the Red Sox coming in first and the Royals placing last.
- Ladies… looks at some old faces in new places.
- The Baseball Opinion thinks there might be a fallout from the Matt Cain extension.
- Gear Up For Reds Baseball reviews Cincinnati's draft history.
- Blogging Mets looks at some active players who may be on their way to the Hall of Fame.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Rosenthal On Lowell, Cain, Cristian Guzman
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports supplies his latest hot stove buzz…
- Rosenthal's source says the Rangers' interest in Mike Lowell is "light," and the Red Sox don't expect any team to make a suitable offer. Yesterday, ESPN's Jim Reeves said the Rangers keep coming back to Lowell in their search for a right-handed hitting role player. Rosenthal notes that the Red Sox will not release Lowell, who is owed $12MM.
- With Matt Cain locked up, Rosenthal sees a weak 2012 free agent class for starting pitching. Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, and Wandy Rodriguez appear to head the group, though C.C. Sabathia has the option of electing free agency and voiding the remaining four years and $92MM on his Yankees contract. Of course, a lot can change in two seasons. The larger point: there's a better selection of free agent starters after the 2010 season than after 2011.
- The Rangers looked into trading for Washington's Cristian Guzman before acquiring Andres Blanco from the Cubs. Guzman is currently projected to serve as an $8MM utility man for the Nationals.
Odds & Ends: Gaudin, Mets, Cain, Parra
Links for Sunday evening..
- A's assistant GM David Forst told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that the team did not sign Chad Gaudin as a result of Michael Wuertz's injury. Forst says that the team has been looking to add bullpen depth all spring, which was their reason for acquiring Edwar Ramirez and Jason Jennings.
- The Mets will likely wait until the last possible moment to outright pitcher Pat Misch with the hope of stowing him in Triple-A, writes Marty Noble of MLB.com.
- Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News writes that it will be interesting to see where the Giants' rotation stands in 2012. San Francisco will have roughly $35MM committed to Matt Cain and Barry ZIto for that season with Tim Lincecum once again eligible for arbitration.
- Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner (via Twitter) wants Seattle to land Manny Parra, though he can't imagine the Brewers parting with him. This morning, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reported that Parra could be an available option for the M's.
- Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos released Joey Gathright because he didn't think it was fair to send him to the minors, writes Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.
- The Indians are expected to make their remaining roster decisions by Thursday, tweets Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com. The Tribe is looking to nail down their final starter, two bullpen spots, and utility players.
Giants, Cain Agree To Three-Year Extension
The Giants and Matt Cain have agreed to a three-year contract extension, writes Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News. The deal, which will cover Cain through the 2012 season, buys out one year of the hurler's free agency. On Friday, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle speculated (via Twitter) that the Giants could be close to an extension with the 25-year-old.
Baggarly tweets that Cain will still make $4.5MM in 2010, $8MM in 2011, and $15MM in 2012. The new agreement voids Cain's old contract, in which he would have earned $4.25MM in 2010 with a $6.25MM club option for the following year. The old contract also included escalators based on innings pitched and games started that could have tacked another $1.9MM onto the 2011 option.
The extensions for Jeremy Affeldt and Brian Wilson have also been made official. Affeldt agreed to a two-year, $9.5MM pact while Wilson will earn $15MM over the next two seasons.
What Would A Matt Cain Extension Cost?
Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle speculated today, via Twitter, that an extension for Matt Cain might be in the works. Considering that the Giants have yet to officially announce extensions for Jeremy Affeldt and Brian Wilson, Schulman wonders (Twitter link) if a deal for Cain could come "sooner rather than later."
While we wait to see if there's any merit to this speculation, let's examine a pair of comparable contract extensions: Felix Hernandez's $78MM deal with Seattle and Justin Verlander's $80MM pact with the Tigers. Both pitchers, like Cain, were poised to hit free agency after the 2011 season, before their teams locked them up.
Cain's career resume to date is impressive, matching up reasonably well with the Mariners' and Tigers' aces. He has been durable, making at least 31 starts in each of the last four seasons, and his career 1.25 WHIP bests both Felix's (1.27) and Verlander's (1.28). Still, Cain has yet to post a truly elite season like the 2009 campaigns that earned Hernandez and Verlander Cy Young and MVP votes.
The Tigers will pay Verlander $20MM annually in what would have been his first three free agent years, while the Mariners will pay Hernandez $19.3MM per year over the same period. If the Giants were to sign Cain long-term, you'd have to think it could cost them up to $15MM annually for those free agency seasons.
The 25-year-old Cain has a $6.25MM club option for 2011 (his final arbitration season) that should vest if he stays healthy. If the Giants were to extend the right-hander today, they would likely re-do that year, perhaps guaranteeing him $7MM or so. All told, San Francisco could be looking at a price tag in excess of $50MM to retain their #2 starter from 2011 through 2014.