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Tigers Shut Down Matt Manning, Alex Faedo

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The Tigers have shut down pitching prospects Matt Manning and Alex Faedo for the remainder of the season, GM Al Avila announced to reporters (including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News).  Both right-handers have been diagnosed with right forearm strains, though Avila emphasized that four different specialists examined the pair to ensure that there was not a more severe injury at play.

“We wanted to be super cautious,” Avila said. “We just wanted to be sure we were right in our assessment, that it was not going to be a big deal and we were prescribing the right course of rehab.”

With Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal already making their MLB debuts this season, bringing Manning and Faedo up to the active roster would have given Detroit fans an early preview of what the Tigers hope will be their rotation core for the next decade.  Even before the forearm problems, however, Faedo missed the Tigers’ summer camp due to COVID-19, and McCosky notes that Manning was dealing with mechanical issues both in summer camp and dating all the way back to Spring Training.

In terms of who could replace Manning and Faedo in the 60-man player pool, Avila said the club is “looking at adding prospects from within the organization,” though “we do have a list of players outside the organization who, if we needed to in an emergency go out and sign.”  Avila didn’t mention the possibility of a trade, though since the 13-16 Tigers are only two games out of a wild card berth, it isn’t out of the question that the club could make an addition before the trade deadline.

Filling Out The Tigers’ Starting Rotation

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UPDATE: Zimmermann has been placed on the 45-day injured list, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck and others (Twitter links). The Tigers aren’t ruling him out for the season yet.

TODAY: Jordan Zimmermann is dealing with the same sort of forearm soreness that sapped him of much of the 2019 season, per Chris McCosky of The Detroit News. If he can stay healthy – a big if – Zimmermann would look to make the most of a short season by proving his arm still plays at the major league level. This will be the final year of the five-year, $110MM pact he signed with the Tigers before the 2016 season.

It’s been a tough couple of years for Zimmermann, who will end his contract without ever making 30 starts in a season after doing so in each of his final four seasons with the Nationals. Despite the precipitous drop in performance, the Tigers were nonetheless turning to Zimmermann as a veteran stopgap in a rotation that will soon be overrun by high-upside prospects like Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, Franklin Perez, Casey Mize, and Joey Wentz. The rotation is already without Daniel Norris, who has yet to pitch in camp after testing positive for coronavirus.

In the meantime, the Tigers are scrambling to fill out the rotation behind ace Matthew Boyd. Veteran Ivan Nova was brought in to soak up innings (34 starts, 187 innings in 2019), and Spencer Turnbull figures to slot in somewhere in the middle of the rotation after a mostly-strong showing in 2019. Turnbull went 3-17 last season with a 4.61 ERA/3.99 FIP. He’s done a nice job of limiting long balls throughout his two seasons in the majors, and if he can improve upon some control issues that led to an AL-high 16 hit batters and 3.6 BB/9, the Tigers hope Turnbull can level off his 4.76 career ERA and land closer to his 3.88 career FIP mark.

Beyond those three, the Tigers are working on extending the innings of Dario Agrazal, Shao-Ching Chiang, Hector Santiago, and Tyler Alexander to potentially fill out the rotation. Former Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer also has a chance to get some rotation innings, writes McCosky. Fulmer missed all of 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Of the youngsters in camp, Mize probably has the best shot of cracking the rotation. Under normal circumstances, Mize would be ticketed for Triple-A after 22 starts with a 2.55 ERA in Double-A last year, but without minor league games to further his development, count Mize among the many young stars with a slightly better chance of breaking into the big leagues sometime during the shortened 2020 season. Seven days on the taxi squad will be enough for the Tigers to secure an extra year of service time, notes McCosky, but manager Ron Gardenhire doesn’t plan on making any official decisions until knowing more about the health of Zimmermann and Norris.

Tigers Notes: Torkelson, Draft, Pitching Prospects

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The Tigers will be on the clock with the top pick in the shortened, five-round MLB draft tomorrow night, and although general manager Al Avila unsurprisingly declined to tip his hand in speaking with reporters today, Lynn Henning of the Detroit News writes that Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson is expected to be the pick “unless something bizarre occurs.” Torkelson has long been regarded as a potential, if not likely No. 1 overall pick, having put together an outrageous NCAA career at the plate (.337/.463/.729) while wowing scouts with elite power, a keen eye at the plate and a potentially strong hit tool. Detroit has the second-largest bonus pool in this year’s draft, due largely to the No. 1 overall selection’s $8.415MM slot value.

Even beyond the selections the Tigers will make over the next two days, though, Avila feels the club will be well-positioned to lure in undrafted amateurs, Henning’s colleague Chris McCosky writes. Bonuses for undrafted players are capped at just $20K, so the Tigers won’t be able outbid other teams, but Avila touts the manner in which his organization has embraced “modern technology” as both an advantage for luring undrafted players and preparing for the draft in general. The club’s bolstered analytics department proved vital for draft preparation in the absence of conventional scouting opportunities, Avila says. He adds that the team’s recruiting message and the clear opportunities at the MLB level both work in their favor as well.

This marks the second time in three years that the Tigers have landed the No. 1 overall selection. In 2018, the top pick led Detroit to former Auburn ace Casey Mize, who now joins fellow Tigers farmhands Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal among baseball’s premier pitching prospects. Each had been ticketed for Triple-A, but Avila acknowledges that the likely lack of a minor league season has at least led to discussion about some of the organization’s top pitching prospects beginning to log innings at the MLB level in 2020.

Avila cautions that “no final decision” has been made and call the debate a “work in progress.” The Tigers, of course, still view their rebuild as an ongoing process and likely won’t be inclined to rush any of their prized arms to the Majors. The determination surely depends on what other developmental opportunities present themselves, too. While virtually everyone expects the minor league season to be canceled, there’s been talk of a potentially expanded Arizona Fall League format and the advent of a Florida Fall League, which could give high-end prospects like Mize, Manning and Skubal some much-needed developmental reps against similarly touted minor league hitters.

NL Notes: Hiura, BA Awards, Freeland

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With a .301/.369/.571 line, 16 home runs, and nine stolen bases in his first 295 plate appearances in the majors, Brewers infielder Keston Hiura has this season put on prominent display the skills that made him a top-10 pick in the 2017 Rule IV draft. Today comes word that the UC Irvine product is a little closer to putting those tools to further use, as Adam McCalvy of MLB.com tweets that Hiura did a full workout (including batting practice) before logging one at-bat in today’s game against the Cardinals (link). Hiura has been out with a left hamstring strain since Aug. 31. Though the club certainly awaits his return with eagerness, they have been doing just fine for themselves in Hiura’s absence. Saturday’s win brings their record to 8-2 over their last ten contests. They are now just 1.0 games back of the Cubs for the last Wild Card play-in spot.

More notes from around the NL…

  • Baseball America has released their annual “Classification All-Stars” list, in which they name their All-Stars, MVPs, and Pitchers of the Year for each minor league level irrespective of league. Notably, NL prospects took home Pitcher of the Year honors at every minor league level except Double-A (a level which Tigers farmhand Matt Manning trounced in 2019). The complete list of garlanded NL pitchers includes Arizona’s Zac Gallen (Triple-A), San Diego’s Mackenzie Gore (High-A), San Francisco’s Seth Corry (Single-A), Arizona’s Luis Frias (Short Season), Miami’s Luis Palacios (Rookie), and Jerming Rosario of the Los Angeles Dodgers organization (Dominican Summer League).
  • The Rockies play the Padres this weekend in a three-game series that has few relevant ramifications–aside from which team may be hung with the unflattering distinction of being the so-called cellar dweller in the NL West this year. There may be another bright spot in the offing for Colorado as their season yawns to a close, however, as word now comes that pitcher Kyle Freeland is one step closer to ending his troubled 2019 season on a positive note. Manager Bud Black told Thomas Harding of MLB.com that Freeland threw an issue-free, two-inning simulated bullpen session on Saturday–the 26-year-old’s latest step in recovery from a groin injury suffered on Aug. 21. After vexing hitters thoroughly in 2018 (2.85 ERA in 202.2 innings), this season has been a true test of faith for Freeland, as his 6.98 ERA in 99.1 innings of work was the worst mark among all pitchers who tossed more than 90 IP this year.

AL Central Notes: Boyd, Indians, Mize, Sox, Cease

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Matthew Boyd elevated his stock considerably with a strong start to the season and a heavier reliance on four-seamers and sliders, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently took a look at whether the Tigers might be open to trading the 28-year-old lefty. While the rebuilding Detroit club likely isn’t in a position to wholly refuse offers on virtually anyone on the roster, the Tigers do have a preference if they’re to move Boyd, Rosenthal reports. Given the glut of young pitching in the upper minors, the team’s ideal trade package for Boyd would center around a controllable young hitter with substantial upside. The Tigers needn’t feel compelled to move Boyd either this summer or even in the 2019-20 offseason, as he’s still controlled for another three seasons, but his improvements thus far appear more legitimate than many early-season, small-sample success stories. It’s easy to imagine that he’s already more appealing to other clubs than he was a month ago, and even if the Tigers ultimately hang onto him, Boyd will surely be one of the most sought-after arms in the game this summer if he maintains his early output.

Here’s more from the American League Central…

  • Right-hander Casey Mize, the No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft, tossed a no-hitter in his Double-A debut following a midweek promotion, but the Tigers aren’t planning to accelerate his timeline to the Major Leagues based on that dominant effort, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. “[General manager Al Avila] has told me, ’Don’t even look at them,'” manager Ron Gardenhire tells McCosky of Mize and fellow top pitching prospects Matt Manning and Alex Faedo. “So, I am happy they’re doing well, but they are not in my thoughts.” Both Avila and assistant GM David Chadd were present to watch Mize’s one-walk, no-hitter live and will watch Faedo an Manning this week as well. However, McCosky notes that the pair isn’t getting live looks at those young arms with an eye toward a near-term promotion. Faedo has just 89 innings above A-ball, while Manning has just 39 1/3.
  • The Indians left themselves little margin for error this past offseason and are now paying the price, writes Zack Meisel of The Athletic (subscription required). Cleveland pinned its hopes on a dominant rotation but is already down Mike Clevinger and Corey Kluber. While the former is ahead of schedule in his recovery from a teres major strain, he can’t be activated until June 7 given his placement on the 60-day injured list, and there’s no timeline yet for the latter. As far as in-house alternatives, Adam Plutko is still working his way back from a forearm issue, leaving Jefry Rodriguez as the de facto fourth starter and a collection of question marks behind him in the fifth slot. Chih-Wei Hu and non-roster journeyman Asher Wojciechowski are perhaps the likeliest fifth options for an Indians club that currently faces a three-game deficit in the division.
  • Although Tommy John surgery is “on the table” as an option for injured White Sox left-hander Carlos Rodon, his health won’t impact top prospect Dylan Cease’s timeline to the big leagues, general manager Rick Hahn told reporters Thursday (link via LaMond Pope of the Chicago Tribune). “[N]o one is going to be promoted to Chicago simply because there’s a need in Chicago,” said Hahn, stressing that Cease or any other prospect will only be promoted when the player’s development dictates a promotion. “(Cease’s) timeline is not in any way affected by anything that happens with Carlos. It’s only going to be affected by what happens with (Cease).” The 23-year-old Cease, who entered the year as a consensus Top 50 prospect in the game, has done a good job making an early case for a big league debut. Through 24 1/3 innings at Triple-A, he’s pitched to a 3.33 ERA with a 30-to-7 K/BB ratio and a 55.1 percent ground-ball rate.

Prospect Notes: Vlad, 2018 Draftees, Twins, Franco, Pitchers

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With the season effectively over for all but a few teams, many front offices and fanbases alike are turning their sights toward the 2019 season and beyond as they hope for better days. With that in mind, here’s a look at some notes on some of the game’s top prospects from around the league…

  • ESPN’s Keith Law named Blue Jays third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. his prospect of the year for a second consecutive season (subscription required), citing familiar questions about his long-term defensive capabilities but adding that there’s “zero question in my mind” that Guerrero is more than ready to thrive against Major League pitching at the moment. As for 2018 draftees, Cardinals third baseman Nolan Gorman and Royals lefty Daniel Lynch have been the two most impressive in his estimation. Gorman destroyed Appalachian League pitching and was promoted to full-season Class-A ball despite only having turned 18 in May. Lynch, a University of Virginia product, split his pro debut between those same two levels and pitched to a 1.58 ERA with a 61-to-8 K/BB ratio in 51 1/3 innings.
  • Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com took a longer-term look at prospects yesterday, attempting to forecast who will be the top-ranked prospects this time a year from now. With names like Guerrero, Eloy Jimenez, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Kyle Tucker all expected to graduate from prospect lists next year, Callis and Mayo tab Twins shortstop Royce Lewis, the No. 1 overall pick from 2017, as their pick to be the game’s top prospect a year from now. More encouraging for Twins fans is that 2016 first-rounder and outfielder Alex Kirilloff, who missed the 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery, lands third on the same list after hitting .348/.392/.578 between Class-A and Class-A Advanced in his return from that surgery.
  • Meanwhile, Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser writes that Rays shortstop Wander Franco has been tabbed as BA’s breakout prospect of 2018. (Franco also appears on the previously mentioned lists from Law and MLB.com.) The 17-year-old Franco grew up living next to Indians superstar Jose Ramirez in the Dominican Republic and calls his childhood neighbor and friend his “idol” and greatest influence as a hitter. Glaser speaks to Franco about his relationship with Ramirez and his progress in 2018, and he also chats with Franco’s Appalachian League manager, Danny Sheaffer, about the young phenom’s strengths and upside. Franco was one of just two 17-year-olds playing in the Appy League this year but crushed older pitching to the tune of a .351/.418/.587 slash with 11 homers, 10 doubles and seven triples in 273 plate appearances.
  • Evaluating pitching prospects is among the most challenging endeavors for teams and online analysts alike. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs recently explored the pitfalls of attempting to do so, suggesting that many mainstream publications (his own past work at Fangraphs included) have leaned too heavily in favor of “power-over-feel” prospects and downplayed the potential significance of players cut from the Shane Bieber cloth — those who possess above-average command and stuff but perhaps not an overpowering arsenal of 60- or 70-grade offerings. McDaniel highlights Tigers righty Matt Manning, White Sox righty Dylan Cease and Rays lefty/first baseman Brendan McKay in examining the various elements that have contributed to this line of thinking in an interesting column that those who avidly follow prospects will want to check out in its entirety.

Tigers Agree To Terms With Matt Manning

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The Tigers and No. 9 overall draft pick Matt Manning have agreed to terms, reports MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo (via Twitter). The high school right-hander out of California will receive the full slot value of $3,505,800, according to Mayo.

Entering the draft, Manning was a consensus Top 15 prospect, with ESPN’s Keith Law rating him ninth on his final Top 100 ranking. Mayo and colleague Jim Callis rated Manning 11th in the draft, as did Baseball America on their Top 500 ranking. Athleticism runs in Manning’s bloodline, as his father, Rich, had a brief NBA career from 1995-97. Law notes that Manning needs a good bit of development but is “so athletic” that he’s well worth the associated risk. Manning himself was set to play both basketball and baseball at Loyala Marymount but will forego that commitment to begin his pro career with the Tigers. BA praises his 6’5″, 195-pound projectable frame and a fastball that sits 96-97 mph and is said to have reached 99 mph. Like BA and Law, Callis and Mayo feel that his secondary pitches — a curveball and changeup — need some work but have the potential to be above-average offerings.

The Tigers haven’t had a selection as high as ninth overall since 2009, when they also took a high school right-hander (Jacob Turner). Despite their No. 9 overall selection, the Tigers have a small draft pool this season thanks to the fact that they parted with their second pick in order to sign right-hander Jordan Zimmermann to a five-year deal and their third pick to sign Justin Upton to a six-year deal. (The top 10 selections in the draft are protected, so the Tigers retained the No. 9 pick despite signing a pair of qualifying offer free agents.) Those losses left the Tigers with a pool of $5,424,300, and they’ll have $1,918,500 to allocate to the remainder of their picks in rounds four through 10 (plus any over-slot deals for players selected beyond the 10th round).

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