Mike Elias

Mike Elias Discusses Orioles’ “Win-Now Mode” Offseason

By Mark Polishuk | November 12, 2022 at 4:47pm CDT

Orioles general manager Mike Elias spoke with reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham) at the GM Meetings about some of Baltimore’s winter plans, as the club looks to build on its surprising 83-win season. While Elias noted that “we’re not going to go from zero miles an hour to 60 miles an hour in one offseason,” he left no doubt that the O’s are moving beyond their multi-year rebuild strategy.

“Our objective this winter is to add to the major league roster for the purpose of getting into the playoffs. We think that this team is ready to, hopefully, incrementally take steps forward. We’re in win-now mode.”

This means adding some established big league talent to a roster that is still pretty young and short on experience. However, between these younger players and other top prospects coming up from a deep minor league pipeline, Elias noted that “we have internal players at almost every spot that we think are interesting, and I think that provides us with some flexibility with which players we go after. We’ve got some positional flexibility with our current group and that makes for a scenario where we don’t have a very specific recipe of which positions the players have to come in.”

MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored some of Baltimore’s options in his recent Offseason Outlook piece, such as an infield picture that has Gunnar Henderson (who could play third base, second base, or shortstop) as the only true sure thing heading into 2023. On paper, the Orioles could stand pat with a starting infield of Henderson, Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias, and Ryan Mountcastle, with the latter three players perhaps somewhat acting as placeholders until the next wave of infield prospects are ready. Or, Baltimore could acquire a new everyday option at one of the infield spots, perhaps by trading from that infield surplus.

The rotation is perhaps an easier fit for a new veteran, especially since Jordan Lyles’ club option was declined. As Elias noted, “we’ve got a lot of interesting starters. But they’re not guys who have a track record of being front-end-of-the-rotation starters. If we’re able to go out this winter and get more veteran certainty, that would be big. We’re going to be out in the market for that, for sure.”

Re-signing Lyles also isn’t out of the question, as Elias reiterated that the Orioles’ decision to decline the right-hander’s $11MM option was more about timing than any dissatisfaction with Lyles’ performance. “This is a big business with big money, and sometimes it just doesn’t line up at the date that we have to make these decisions,” Elias said. “For us, with this contract with this club option, it was the fifth day after the World Series and we just weren’t ready to bring him back in that way in that point in time….I think that he’s going to have a very good free agent experience himself, and we’ll just stay in touch because I know he liked it here and we liked having him.”

Orioles Notes: Ownership, Elias, Rutschman, Offseason

By Darragh McDonald | September 10, 2022 at 9:22am CDT

Back in June, it was reported by Tim Prudente and Justin Fenton of The Baltimore Banner that the Angelos family was battling over the Orioles franchise. Peter Angelos, now 93, was the lead investor of a group that purchased the club in 1993 and has been at the helm since. However, he collapsed in October of 2017 due to the failure of his aortic valve and then established a trust with his wife and two sons as trustees.

The reporting in June provided details of a lawsuit coming from Louis Angelos, one of Peter’s two sons, alleging that John, the other son, had seized control of the team with the intention of selling and perhaps relocating the team to Tennessee. Shortly after those allegations came to light, John released a statement refuting them.

Prudente has released a new piece at the Baltimore Banner this week with further reporting on the matter, looking at court documents from the ongoing legal dispute. According to the attorneys of Georgia Angelos, the wife of Peter and mother of John and Louis, she wanted to create some space between the family and the team. Peter had a reputation as a very hands-on owner, which led to attention that the family wanted to move away from. “After years of bad press that Peter micromanaged baseball operations at the Orioles, Georgia wanted to create distance between her family and the ‘baseball side’ of the organization,” Georgia’s attorneys wrote in court documents. “John similarly abhorred any management structure other than an organizational pyramid with full delegation of authority to a staff of trained professionals and executives, headed by a General Manager responsible for all day-to-day decision making.”

Her attorneys go on to argue that general manager Mike Elias, hired in late 2018, was aggressively pursued by the Giants but instead agreed to come to Baltimore on the condition that he would report to John only because John would give Elias the freedom to handle the baseball decision without interference. “This understanding was crucial to Elias’s decision to come to the Orioles — a club long plagued by anti-organizational culture — so much so that John, with Georgia’s approval, codified these delegated rights in Elias’s employment contract,” Georgia’s attorneys wrote.

The documents go on to allege that Louis was not happy with this turn of events and demanded to be in charge of baseball operations, repeatedly contacting Elias about which baseball players the team might sign. The behaviour of Louis caused him to be excluded from a new board for the team that his mother created in August of 2020, which featured John as chairman and CEO.

The dismissal of Brady Anderson, who had been serving as vice president of baseball operations, also comes up in the court documents. Georgia’s attorneys alleged that Louis was friends with Anderson and unilaterally raised Anderson’s salary from $300K to $900K in 2018. However, when Elias was brought in, he tried to steer the club to a greater analytical approach that didn’t align with Anderson’s style. Louis insisted on keeping Anderson around, with Elias agreeing to a compromise where Anderson was moved to a position as an outside consultant with lower pay. “While Anderson agreed, he felt slighted, a sentiment he could not hide and which eventually led to his termination,” Georgia’s attorneys write. Anderson departed the Orioles organization in 2019.

This is an ongoing legal matter where the allegations haven’t been substantiated in court and an attorney for Louis declined to provide comment for the report. Interested readers are encouraged to read both reports, though more information is likely to be revealed as the legal process plays out.

Regardless of how it came to be in the boardrooms of the front office, the Elias-led Orioles are a reality that is starting to show encouraging signs at the big league level for the first time. After losing at least 108 games in each of the past three full seasons, the O’s are much better here in 2022. Their 73-65 record is the best they’ve had in quite some time and has kept them in the playoff race down the stretch, just four games out of a Wild Card spot with just over three weeks remaining. That big step forward is at least partly due to the club’s 2019 draft, which was Baltimore’s first with Elias at the helm.

Elias recently spoke with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic about that draft, which saw the club scoop up catcher Adley Rutschman, infielder Gunnar Henderson and outfielder Kyle Stowers, all three of whom are already in the majors. Despite the pressure of having the number one overall selection, it seems Elias and the club didn’t have much doubt about using that pick on Rutschman. “He provided for us the best combination of floor and ceiling,” Elias says. “We thought the leadership component would be a separator, which is looking like it could be the case. And I thought it was rare, a once-in-a-decade kind of thing to get an offensive catcher in a draft.”

Even before that draft selection, Rutschman was mentioned as one of the best prospects in the sport. Since then, he continued rocketing up prospect boards, being considered by many to be the top prospect this year. Since ascending to the big leagues, Rutschman has lived up to the hype in a big way. He’s hitting .255/.363/.449 for a wRC+ of 135, production that’s 35% better than the league average hitter but even further beyond the average catcher. He’s also been great on the other side of the ball, with his 16 Defensive Runs Saved second in the league among catchers despite missing the early part of the season, just barely behind Jose Trevino’s 17. Put together, he’s been worth 4.1 wins above replacement on the season, according to FanGraphs. Among all catchers, that trails only J.T. Realmuto and Sean Murphy, who have each played at least 28 more games than Rutschman.

Based on the strong season for the O’s, Elias said last month that the club expects to “significantly escalate the payroll” this winter. It’s hard to know exactly how the club will approach things, given that we don’t have precedent for how Elias will behave under these new conditions. With the team in rebuild mode for his entire tenure up until now, the front office has avoided significant commitments and hasn’t signed a free agent to a multi-year contract since the four-year deal Alex Cobb got in March of 2018, before Elias was hired. That means they have effectively no future commitments on the books and can theoretically go after any free agent they desire. It will be interesting to see how they play their cards, with Rosenthal reporting that their list of targets includes “a top-of-the-rotation starter,” in addition to a backup catcher and an infielder, with the specific position of the infielder depending upon where the multi-positional Henderson settles.

The club will be looking for “quality rather than quantity” on the pitching front, Rosenthal says, which makes sense given that the club already has some intriguing rotation candidates in the fold. Young pitchers like Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Kyle Bradish and Spenser Watkins have all had some promising starts this year, to varying degrees. The club also has reinforcements coming over the horizon, with Grayson Rodriguez considered by many to be one of the top pitching prospects in the sport. John Means could also return to the mix at some point next year, after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. Given that collection of internal candidates, it would make sense for the O’s to shoot for a single impact starter rather than spreading money around to a handful of less-impactful options. Rosenthal lists Chris Bassitt, Carlos Rodón, Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon, Corey Kluber and Michael Wacha as some of the available hurlers who would make for logical targets, as the O’s hope to turn the page from perennial basement dwellers to consistent contenders in the AL East.

Orioles Face September Call-Up Decisions For Multiple Top Prospects

By TC Zencka | August 27, 2022 at 10:32am CDT

The Orioles – the surprise of the 2022 season – have some decisions to make about their September roster. The biggest decisions center on top prospects Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, and Gunnar Henderson, the 56th, 4th, and top-ranked prospects in the game, per Baseball America.

Hall and Henderson are under consideration to join the big league club when the rosters expand, and perhaps sooner, so says General Manager Mike Elias, tweets Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun. The plan has been for Hall to win the right to join the bullpen in September when rosters expand, but the evaluation process is dynamic, and nothing is guaranteed for the southpaw, who made his debut earlier this season. (It’s worth noting that, regardless of what happens this year, the plan remains for Hall to join the rotation next year.)

Fans are certainly eager to see this cluster of high-ceiling prospects in action, but they can put at least a modicum of trust in the process, as compared to seasons past. With the new CBA, the Orioles are freed from some of the service time concerns that have hampered clubs’ decision-making under the prior collective bargaining agreement. With less than 45 service days remaining in the season, Baltimore has no service reasons to keep Henderson or Hall in the minors any longer, notes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. If they feel the pair can help the big league club as they make a push for the playoffs, we should see them soon.

For Rodriguez, the issue is more a question of health than MLB readiness. He has yet to begin a rehab assignment as he recovers from a lat injury. Per Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com, Elias said, “I’m almost positive that we’re going to see him in real game action before the season’s over. As with any rehab assignment, we’ll start him in the lower minors and then we’ll get him back, hopefully, to the level in which he got injured, and we’ll take it from there.”

Of course, Elias has more to think about than just the individual development of each of these high flyers. With the team unexpectantly pushing for a playoff spot, the Orioles should prioritize fielding the best team possible. Thrusting a young player into a playoff chase for a team that’s been so far from contention for so long is no small decision, however. Suddenly, the lights are bright in Baltimore. Elias must weigh the current needs of the team against the developmental hurdles in front of Henderson, Hall, and Rodriguez. Given the process and plan that Elias has instilled in this organization, he’s likely to want to maintain the long view, even amidst a playoff race.

For now, Orioles fans will have to content themselves with watching new face-of-the-franchise Adley Rutschman lead this team. Thus far, Rutschman has done everything promised to keep this Cinderella squad in the hunt. The 24-year-old backstop has slashed .253/.363/.442 with eight home runs across 320 plate appearances. Those numbers are 34 percent better than average, as evidenced by a 134 wRC+, which isn’t just remarkable for a catcher, or for a rookie, but for anyone in spikes.

Maybe this will be the new normal for Baltimore, but especially in the AL East, where the competition will be top-shelf year after year, each opportunity for postseason play is precious. If nothing else, August/September baseball should matter in a way that Baltimore fans haven’t seen since the days of Buck Showalter, Manny Machado, and Zack Britton. If the kids come to play, all the better.

GM Mike Elias: Orioles Will “Significantly Escalate The Payroll” During Offseason

By Mark Polishuk | August 14, 2022 at 1:59pm CDT

The Orioles have been one of the biggest stories of the 2022 season, emerging from years of rebuilding and mediocrity to post a 59-54 record and challenge for a wild card slot. Even if it looks like the O’s may have turned the corner already, the club definitely wants to make winning a habit going forward, and a payroll increase will come along with that planned return to contention.

“Our plan for this offseason has always been to significantly escalate the payroll,” GM Mike Elias said in an appearance on The Front Office Show on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM. “I think a lot of that’s going to come through our own guys going into arbitration, but also we plan to explore free agency much more aggressively. We plan to maybe make some buy trades for some guys that are either on contracts or kind of in the tail-end of their arbitration.”

“The success…has only cemented those plans. I’m really looking forward to the offseason and kind of a winter meetings environment where we’re buying. I think it’s going to be a lot of fun for our group and for the organization.”

In a sense, there was nowhere to go but up for Baltimore’s spending considering that the team’s Opening Day was just under $43.8MM. This was the lowest amount any team was spending on its active roster, marking the fourth straight season that the O’s have been at or near the very bottom of the payroll list. As Elias noted, several players (Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Jorge Mateo, Dillon Tate) are becoming arbitration-eligible for the first time, while Anthony Santander is due a raise for his third trip through the arb process.

Still, it counts as a positive for Baltimore fans that a rising arbitration price tag doesn’t automatically make a player into a trade candidate, given all of the cost-cutting that has gone on during Elias’ rebuild. And now, Elias seems poised to make some significant veteran additions for the first time in his three-plus seasons in charge of the front office.

At the end of the 2017 season, the Orioles carried a franchise record payroll of just under $167.5MM. It is probably safe to assume that the O’s won’t suddenly jump back to that number in a single offseason, so a Rangers-esque offseason splurge likely isn’t in the cards. There is also the lingering question of a reported dispute within the Orioles’ ownership group, and whatever impact that could potentially have over the franchise’s willingness to spend (or who is ultimately making any big-picture spending decisions).

If Elias’ past job in the Astros front office is any guide, the Orioles’ winter could be somewhat akin to what Houston did in the wake of the 2015 season. After six losing seasons and an extensive rebuild, the Astros won 86 games and the AL Wild Card game, catching many fans and pundits off-guard in the same way that the Orioles have surprised this year. However, the Astros had a busy offseason that still stopped short of any true blockbuster moves, perhaps owing to both a feeling that the 2015 club was a bit ahead of schedule, and because Houston still wanted to see what it really had in some highly-touted youngsters who had yet to break out or even arrive in the majors. (For instance, 2016 was Alex Bregman’s debut season.)

The same could be said of the current Orioles, considering that so many of their top prospects — Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser — haven’t made their MLB debuts, while the likes of DL Hall and Kyle Stowers have only been up for a cup of coffee. That leaves the O’s with some uncertainty over who will or won’t be cornerstone pieces, and yet the sheer depth of prospect talent definitely bodes well for the future. And of course, Adley Rutschman has hit the ground running in his rookie season and already looks like one of the sport’s best catchers.

As much as Elias is tied to Astros history as the team’s former assistant GM and scouting director, he also wasn’t calling the shots in that organization, whereas he is at the top of Baltimore’s front office pyramid. It will be interesting to see Elias’ approach now that he is building rather than rebuilding, and given this lack of history, we can’t rule out a pursuit of, say, a major free agent. Elias did already pass on one chance to add to the Orioles at the trade deadline, as even with the team in contention, the club still dealt Jorge Lopez to the Twins and Trey Mancini to the Astros.

AL East Notes: Franco, Orioles, Elias, Red Sox

By Mark Polishuk | July 9, 2022 at 6:19pm CDT

Wander Franco left today’s game after his first plate appearance, due to what the Rays described as discomfort in the shortstop’s right hand and wrist. Franco has already been ruled out of Sunday’s game, and he is set to visit a doctor on Monday when the Rays return home after a road trip.

The situation doesn’t sound promising, as even if Franco has avoided a serious injury, another trip to the injured list could be beckoning if the Rays want to be cautious with the young star. The All-Star break could play a role in Tampa Bay’s decision, as Franco’s 10-day minimum absence could be partially absorbed by the league-wide break in the schedule. Franco already missed four weeks due to a quad strain, and wasn’t particularly productive in the weeks leading up to that last IL placement as he was trying to play through the injury. Since returning from the injured list, Franco has registered a hit in 11 of 13 games, but with only a .634 OPS over 56 plate appearances. [UPDATE: Manager Kevin Cash told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times and other reporters that Franco seems to have suffered a hamate bone injury, which usually requires 4-6 weeks of recovery time.]

AL East Notes: Angelos, Elias, Maybin

By James Hicks | February 19, 2022 at 9:52am CDT

In his first press conference since naming Mike Elias GM in November 2018, Orioles chairman and CEO John Angelos — the eldest son of longtime O’s owner and Baltimore stalwart Peter Angelos — addressed several topics of note, including the ongoing lockout, the club’s confidence in Elias and manager Brandon Hyde, and the future of Oriole Park at Camden Yards (per Dan Connolly of The Athletic). The younger Angelos didn’t announce anything concrete at the conference (aside from plans to host Paul McCartney at Camden Yards in June, while the Orioles are on the road), but he did discuss ongoing negotiations with the Maryland Stadium Authority regarding a long-term lease on the stadium that would see it used more frequently as a concert venue. The club’s current lease on Camden Yards — long considered the jewel of the ’90s and ’00s “retro” ballpark era, as well as one of the most affordable for fans — runs through 2023.

Angelos, a known advocate for increased revenue sharing and a robust competitive balance tax, officially took over day-to-day operation of the club in 2019 (alongside his brother Louis) and assumed his current titles in 2020. He didn’t break any news with regard to CBA negotiations but did express optimism that the season would start on time; the Orioles are slated to host the Blue Jays on March 31st. He also gave a fairly direct vote of confidence to both Elias and Hyde, saying that “all news is good” as the team — which has one of the best farm systems in the game but one of the weakest big-league rosters — begins to emerge from a half-decade rebuild.

Other news from around the AL East:

Speaking after Angelos at the same press conference, Orioles GM Mike Elias expressed excitement to get the season started but declined to discuss roster plans, saying only that “we’ll get into talking about roster composition when the time is right” (via Roch Kubatko of MASN). He did acknowledge, however, that the club’s infield plans remain very much in flux, with only first base (where Trey Mancini and Ryan Mountcastle will likely share time, presuming Mancini isn’t traded) and perhaps second (the O’s signed Rougned Odor to a one-year deal just ahead of the lockout) settled at this point. Elias and manager Brandon Hyde will bring a slew of minor-league left-side infield options to camp (third baseman Gunnar Henderson headlines the bunch in a system that’s stacked at just about every position), though only Terrin Vavra and Jahmai Jones are likely to compete for an Opening Day roster spot; Joseph Ortiz and Cadyn Grenier could also see time in the bigs at some point in 2022. As things stand, Kelvin Gutierrez (acquired in a July trade with the Royals last year) is likely in pole position to open the season at the hot corner, with Jones and Ramon Urias (a 2020 waiver claim from the Cardinals) set to duke it out at short.
Highly regarded fifteen-year big-league veteran Cameron Maybin, the tenth overall pick by the Tigers in the 2005 draft, will join the YES Network in 2022, reports Jack Curry of YES. The well-traveled outfield stalwart is expected to join the Yankees booth for about 40 games, where he’ll serve as as an analyst for his 2019 club. Maybin, who headlined the deal that sent Miguel Cabrera to Detroit in December 2007, appeared in nine games for the Mets last year, logging an .036/.182/.036 line in 33 trips to the plate. For his career, he slashed a much more palatable .254/.323/.374 while providing steady glovework in the outfield, primarily in center. Maybin announced his retirement via tweet in January.

Orioles “Favorites” To Sign Cuban INF Cesar Prieto

By TC Zencka | January 8, 2022 at 12:07pm CDT

The Orioles are the “favorites” to sign infielder Cesar Prieto when the international signing period opens on January 15th, per MLB.com’s Francys Romero (via Twitter). Romero reports the signing amount to be somewhere between $650K and $750K.

Baltimore has been aggressive under GM Mike Elias in pursuing international free agents. It’s one of the few avenues available to teams to add talent without giving up talent in return. Prieto raked as a 21-year-old in the Cuban National Series, slashing .403/.463/.579 over 360 plate appearances, showing off an intriguing combination of bat-to-ball skills, speed, and gap power.

Fangraphs lists Prieto as a second baseman with a 40+ future value ranking. They write, “Prieto is the best pure hitter in Cuba. He broke Kendrys Morales’ rookie hits record then broke the Serie Nacional’s hit streak record (40 games) in 2020 while striking out just six times in 250 plate appearances. His swing and game resemble Eric Sogard’s.”

At 22-years-old, Prieto is older than many international prospects, which could just make him a fast riser in Baltimore’s system. The Orioles need as much talent in their system as they can muster. Prieto represents a low-cost, low-risk opportunity to add a hitter with a proven track record of success in Cuba.

Seven Years And Counting For The Orioles Rotation

By TC Zencka | January 8, 2022 at 10:39am CDT

Though the Giants have made putting together a starting rotation look easy, most teams struggling to contend know how complex a process building a competent pitching staff can be. Bullpens are fickle, so consistency in run prevention is best guaranteed with a reliable rotation.

The Baltimore Orioles know the challenge better than most. The rotation at Camden Yards finished 26th in 2021 by measure of fWAR, but last with a 5.99 ERA and 5.41 FIP. In fact, their rotation has finished in the bottom-10 by ERA AND FIP in every season since 2014. That’s a pretty remarkable run of incompetence. It’s almost impressive, especially considering they were able to overcome those subpar rotations to make the playoffs in 2016 and finish .500 in 2015.

The Orioles invested in their rotation this offseason for the first time in GM Mike Elias’ tenure. Small as that investment was (they signed Jordan Lyles to a one-year, $7MM guarantee with a team option for a second season), it’s a step in the right direction. Lyles alone isn’t going to keep the Orioles from an 8th consecutive season with a bottom-10 rotation. He made 30 starts in 2021 and finished with exactly 0.0 fWAR, after all. But he also tossed 180 innings, which makes a difference in saving a bullpen and providing enough breathing room for young rotation arms to thrive.

Forget productivity for a moment. The Orioles rotation will have a watchable rotation if and when D.L. Hall and Grayson Rodriguez establish themselves in the Majors. That duo is likely to start next season in Triple-A, but they’re close. When they arrive, there’s going to be some honest-to-god excitement around Baltimore’s rotation. That duo probably won’t have a full season in the bigs until 2023, however.

There’s at least one more season of fungible, fill-in-the-blanks taking the bump in Baltimore. Just because the big-name prospects aren’t set to arrive doesn’t mean there’s no progress to be made this season. After all, with Lyles and presumptive ace John Means, they’re in a better place than usual.

Rich Dubroff of Baltimorebaseball.com went through each of their internal candidates to fill out the rotation behind Means and Lyles. Dubroff lists Keegan Akin, Mike Baumann, Dean Kremer, Zac Lowther, Alexander Wells, and Bruce Zimmermann as the incumbent candidates, with Zimmermann as the most accomplished of the group, even if he was most successful as a long man out of the pen.

The other way to build out the rotation, of course, is through free agency. The Orioles aren’t probably going to spend any more than they already have in terms of a one-year salary, but for free agents at the bottom of the hierarchy, Baltimore offers more opportunity than most other rotations around the game. Matt Harvey is the mold, a former star looking to rehabilitate his image.

Harvey posted 1.9 fWAR but only a 6.27 ERA, but he did make 28 starts and toss 127 2/3 innings in 2021. A 4.60 FIP suggests Harvey might have something left in the tank. Besides, amazing though this is, Harvey’s 2021 ranks as the 13th-best output by fWAR during this seven-year run of Orioles’ bottom-feeding. There simply hasn’t been much success of any kind, even the tempered brand of success offered by Harvey in 2021.

Unfortunately for Baltimore, most teams looking for mid-season upgrades have higher standards than the Orioles. Their goal for 2022 should be to add arms that might actually be flippable at the deadline. Lyles qualifies, even if his numbers from last season aren’t all that inspiring.

Other names that might be available to Baltimore are Jose Urena, Mike Fiers, Aaron Sanchez, and/or Mike Foltynewicz. Guys with slightly more upside, say, Chris Archer, Drew Smyly, Chad Kuhl, or Steven Brault might cost a little more than Baltimore wants to spend. Carlos Martinez or Matthew Boyd might present the highest upside, either in terms of their current ability or their eventual trade value, but even those arms are higher up the totem pole than Baltimore has ventured in years past.

What could change that calculus is a trade of Means. There’s not a real high likelihood that Baltimore wants to move Means at this juncture, but if it means selling high on the southpaw, they might consider it. There are enough teams in need of pitching to make Baltimore listen to pitches. If they do move the 28-year-old, they’d probably be better off in the long run, but it all but guarantees another disastrous finish for their starting staff in 2022.

Frankly, Means isn’t unique enough of a talent to hold onto, should the prospect return be right. But teams also haven’t been eager to move prospects of value recently. The longer they hold onto Means, the more his salary will rise, and the lesser of a trade piece he becomes.

Then again, teams generally aren’t as desperate in the offseason because there are more options available and more margin for error with a full season ahead. If they hold onto Means to start the year, he will still have a year plus of team control at the deadline, and that might be just the right calculus to make a deal happen.

It’s not hard to blame the Orioles for holding onto Means. Prospects aren’t a sure thing. Kevin Gausman had the best season by fWAR (2016) of any Baltimore starter in this current era, and when they traded him, Zimmermann was a big part of the return. So it’s not as if trading off their starters has yielded the path to a turnaround.

The rub here is that GM Mike Elias has yet to actually try to build a winning rotation. His goal since his arrival has been to build a long-term competitive engine, a process that’s still very much in the works. So they can sign more free agents, and they can trade Means or hold onto him, but until Elias is willing to really give it a go, expect Baltimore’s rotation to stay in the bottom 10.

Orioles GM Mike Elias On Deadline, Future

By Darragh McDonald | August 1, 2021 at 9:33pm CDT

Orioles general manager Mike Elias spoke with reporters (including Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com) just after their relatively inactive deadline. Baltimore are firmly entrenched in the “seller” category, with the worst record in the American League and only the Diamondbacks keeping them from being worst in all of MLB. But despite that, the club only made a pair of minor trades as the deadline approached, sending Freddy Galvis to the Phillies for Tyler Burch, and Shawn Armstrong to Tampa for cash considerations.

As Elias sees it, the reason for the lack of moves is because their players with the most trade appeal are actually building blocks. “We were very mindful that a lot of our best players that were in demand were players that are not pending free agents with the Orioles,” Elias said. “They’re players that are young and talented and we like and have future years with this club and project to be a part of this club when we hope to be a playoff contender.”

When asked specifically about John Means and Cedric Mullins, Elias said he was “pretty confident that we weren’t going to get very serious in talks with those players. We’re very, very impressed by what those guys are doing, and they’re here for a long time, and they play positions that are not easy to find guys to do what they do. It’s not a priority for us to look at those opportunities.”

Means will cross three years’ service time by the end of this season, setting him up for his first of three arbitration years. He won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2024 season. Mullins on the other hand, has one extra year of control beyond that, slated to hit free agency in late 2025.

Getting back into contention within the next three to four years will be a challenge for the club, as they share a division with four very strong teams. Although Baltimore has a solid farm system, that doesn’t necessarily give them a leg up on their division mates. The Orioles came in seventh on Baseball America’s most recent organizational talent rankings. But two of the other AL East clubs, Tampa and Toronto, are ahead of them. And both of those clubs already have lots of young, controllable talent at the major league level. The Red Sox and Yankees have weaker systems on that list but are currently strong at the major league level and always have higher payrolls than Baltimore to attract and retain talent. Holding on to players like Means and Mullins also carries the risk that they may get hurt or not maintain their performance.

Elias did say that they were “pretty close” to trading away one of their relievers, but didn’t specify which one. Paul Fry and Tanner Scott are two lefties that seen their names surface in recent rumors, alongside righties Cole Sulser and Dillon Tate. All of those hurlers are controlled through at least 2024. And it seems in that the thinking with those arms was the same as with Means and Mullins, that it’s better to hold and try to build around those players before they reach free agency.

One player slated to reach free agency much sooner is Trey Mancini. But despite having just over a year of team control remaining, the idea of a Mancini trade seems unlikely for different reasons. Since missing the 2020 season dealing with colon cancer, Mancini has become a fan favorite in Baltimore and around the league. And trading him would certainly be a difficult sell to the Baltimore fans, who have had few things to feel good about in recent years. As Elias puts it, “I hope he’s here as long as possible and, ultimately, we’re going to take things as we come like baseball teams do in the major leagues and look at stuff and keep talking. He’s a very special part of this team, and he’s going to continue to be so, and we’re happy about that.”

Freddy Galvis Out One-To-Two Months

By TC Zencka | June 27, 2021 at 10:49am CDT

JUNE 27: Galvis has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a right quadriceps strain, the team announced. Urias and Leyba were each recalled from Norfolk, as was outfielder Ryan McKenna. Righty Konner Wade and utilityman Stevie Wilkerson were optioned in corresponding moves.

Galvis will miss between one and two months, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com). That casts serious doubt about his trade candidacy. Galvis would need to return at the very early end of that projected timetable to be healthy by the July 30 deadline. Players on the injured list can still be traded, but a veteran role player like Galvis never looked likely to bring back a highly impactful return, and contenders’ interest in acquiring him would be dealt a serious blow if he’s still on the IL come deadline day.

JUNE 26: Freddy Galvis was carted off the field during today’s loss to the Blue Jays. The team described the injury as right quadriceps discomfort. A roster move appears likely to follow, with Galvis heading to the injured list, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.

Along with being one of the Orioles’ more vocal veteran leaders, the well-respected, glove-first shortstop was a potential trade piece for GM Mike Elias. With little more than a month before the trade deadline, Baltimore will have to wait and see about the severity of Galvis’ injury to know whether he might still be considered a trade chip. Galvis has been worth 0.9 rWAR while slashing .246/.304/.411 in 273 plate appearances.

In the meantime, Pat Valaika took over at shortstop today, while Ramon Urias or Domingo Leyba seem most likely to get the call from Triple-A for more regular playing time. For what it’s worth, neither Urias nor Leyba was in the starting lineup for Triple-A Norfolk tonight, notes Kubatko, suggesting one or both could be on the way to Buffalo. The Orioles play a day game against the Blue Jays tomorrow.

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