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Red Sox Pursuing Teixeira

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Ken Davidoff of Newsday is confirming the Red Sox will be pushing hard to sign Mark Teixeira this offseason, a free agent perfect storm situation for Teixeira who also has interest coming from the Yankees. Writes Davidoff,

"Boston will aggressively pursue Teixeira, two industry sources confirmed. While the Red Sox have a very good first baseman in Kevin Youkilis, they can move Youkilis to third to make room for Teixeira. Incumbent third baseman Mike Lowell is recovering from hip surgery and isn’t expected to be ready until mid-March, and as much as the Red Sox like Lowell, they can look to trade him."

Or they may hold onto Lowell and explore the market during the season as they did with Coco Crisp this year.

Teixeira, a switch hitter, would give Terry Francona an impact bat and added flexibility with the middle of his lineup which figures to have lefties David Ortiz and J.D. Drew and righties Youkilis and a motivated Jason Bay.

In this piece, Davidoff also suggests the Sox part with Jason Varitek and move to acquire Jarrod Saltalamacchia for pitching, as MLBTR discussed earlier today; however, if Varitek can be had for little and the Red Sox can afford it, it may make sense to re-sign Varitek and transition in his replacement at a pace dictated by production and success.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Sabathia, Teixeira, Peavy

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports posted a new column yesterday; let’s take a look.

  • Rosenthal says the "expectation in some baseball circles" is that the Brewers will offer a four-year, $100MM contract to C.C. Sabathia.  However, between the Yankees, Angels, and Dodgers he could probably do significantly better.
  • Mark Teixeira should draw interest from the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels.  Rosenthal adds that Mike Lowell does not have a no-trade clause (I believe I wrote earlier that he did).
  • The Padres and Braves are at an impasse in the Jake Peavy talks, with the Padres seeking five players.  The Braves don’t want to surrender Tommy Hanson, as Tom Krasovic reported Saturday.
  • Scott Boras is reportedly pitching Jason Varitek as the Tigers’ next catcher.
  • Rosenthal suggests that Manny Ramirez’s defense may keep NL teams away.

Heyman’s Latest: Sabathia, Holliday, Griffey

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SI.com’s Jon Heyman has a new column up; let’s take a look.

  • "The prevailing opinion around baseball" is that C.C. Sabathia will sign with the Yankees, and C.C.’s friend Jimmy Rollins agrees.
  • Matt Holliday "definitely intrigues" the Yankees.  But they’d have to give up a lot to get him for one year, and they seem full at the outfield corners.
  • Heyman, perhaps sensing a divide that does not exist, says Pat Gillick has relied on scouts rather than stats to make his decisions.  Heyman also speaks of "a new hesitancy on the part of some to go for another young Ivy League stat man" at the general manager position.
  • Heyman echoes the commonly held sentiment that the White Sox will not re-sign Ken Griffey Jr.
  • The Mets are prioritizing catcher, bullpen, rotation, and outfield over second base.  They’ve talked about Giants backstop Bengie Molina, owed $6MM in the last year of his deal.
  • Heyman believes Boston’s chances of trading Mike Lowell are "practically nil" due to his hip surgery.  His sources won’t rule out a run at Mark Teixeira though.  In other Boston buzz, Heyman sees Coco Crisp on the trading block and a two-year offer for Jason Varitek.

Perrotto’s Latest: Red Sox, Mets, Burnett, Blalock

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John Perrotto over at Baseball Prospectus has his weekly column up… let’s take a look at what he has to say:

  • Couple of notes about the Red Sox: Perrotto expects Theo Epstein to re-sign Jason Varitek to a two-year deal in the $16MM range. This seems like drastically overpaying for what Varitek has become, in my opinion, but as Perrotto points out, there’s very little on the free agent market. Epstein will then look to trade for a young catcher who can become the starter in 2010 or 2011. Additionally, he’ll try to move Mike Lowell to open up a spot for either Mark Teixeira or Garrett Atkins, but that won’t be an easy task most likely. On a Manny-related note, Terry Francona said the last couple months of 2008 were the "most fun he’s ever had" in Boston, calling them "tremendous." He didn’t mention Manny specifically, but does he really have to?
  • Perrotto says the Mets have decided to pass on Francisco Rodriguez, and will instead pursue Brian Fuentes, as well as Derek Lowe. The Red Sox may also make a strong pitch for Lowe.
  • The Padres will likely take some gambles on rehabbing pitchers for 2009. Perrotto lists Mark Mulder, Matt Clement, and Mark Prior as candidates.
  • Toronto’s interim president Paul Beeston is making A.J. Burnett the organization’s top priority, and Perrotto feels that Burnett wants to stay. Personally, I’m in the other camp and see Burnett opting out and cashing in on a big payday.
  • The Rangers will almost certainly pick up Hank Blalock’s $6.2MM option for 2009.

Massarotti On The Red Sox

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Tony Massarotti of the Boston Globe takes a look at the upcoming offseason for the Red Sox.

Massarotti says the Sox have had internal discussions about Mark Teixeira, which is not a surprise.  The Red Sox definitely have the money for him.  Signing Tex would necessitate trading Mike Lowell and moving Kevin Youkilis to third base.    Lowell is owed $24MM over the next two years, and he has no-trade protection.  He had hip surgery recently and is expected to be ready for spring training.  My guess at possible suitors: the White Sox, Indians, Twins, Angels, Brewers, Reds, Dodgers, and Giants.

I thought the Sox would be players for C.C. Sabathia, but Massarotti suggests that is unlikely.  He says Boston officials have concerns about Sabathia’s long-term durability.  Massarotti does not see the Red Sox as players for any big name starter.

One other note: the Sox have yet to discuss an extension with Jason Bay’s agent.

Odds and Ends: Lowell, Carroll, Saltalamacchia

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Time to gather up today’s links.

Mailbag: Roberts, Teixeira, Johan, Nathan, And More

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Time for this week’s mailbag.  You can hit it up at mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com to get in your question for next week.

Do you see the Twins signing a big name middle of the order bopper or trading for one before the opening of the new stadium in 2010? – Jordan

Funny you ask this.  I recently asked LEN3 whether the Twins would have a $100MM payroll for the 2010 season, and he said, "I don’t see it."  So I’ll go with his wisdom and say business as usual for the Twins despite the stadium.

Why are the White Sox not aggressively pursuing any pitching? Do they realistically think that Gavin Floyd and John Danks can hold down the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation on a contender? I believe we need to fill the holes with some veteran pitching such as Livan Hernandez who can eat up innings and possibly add Corey Patterson at center field. – Joel

I was just discussing this with a former coworker of mine.  I can’t see the White Sox sneaking into a Wild Card berth with this rotation, but what’s the alternative?  I don’t like the Livan idea.  I would consider signing a couple of swingmen/injury risk types such as Brett Tomko or Bartolo Colon if he looks decent.  Just a few low risk/OK reward guys with good stuff who could pay off.  There’s no place for Patterson in the current Chicago outfield, I wouldn’t do that.

Were the Cubs holding off on the Brian Roberts trade until they got Lieber? – Bryant

The Cubs/Roberts thing still seems possible, and trading both Sean Marshall and Sean Gallagher is slightly easier to stomach with Lieber on board.  If I were Jim Hendry I would let the whole Roberts idea go though.

What is the likelihood of the Braves signing Mark Teixeira long-term? – Matthew

I’ll put it at a 10% chance.  This is a $100MM+ contract and he’s represented by Scott Boras.  He’ll probably want to test the open market, and there could be some ridiculous bids.

When, just when will this Santana situation be over?!  It’s just killing me! – Dan

We all feel your pain Dan.  Most folks seem sick of reading similar rehashed rumors about this.  I would be surprised if we don’t know Santana’s fate one month from now.  Of course if his fate is to start the season with the Twins, then the rumors will restart in June.

Are there any trade rumors involving Joe Nathan? – Justin

C’mon Justin, you know I’d never hold out rumors on you.  If Bill Smith is shopping Nathan around or getting inquiries, all parties are running very tight ships.  Desperation for closers seems to kick in midseason, when certain bullpens are established as clearly crappy.  So guys like Nathan and Huston Street may be more likely to be moved in June or July.

Why did the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell for Hank Blalock/John Danks deal fall through back in November of ’05? – Oliver

The Rangers believed the deal was done, and hoped to avoid any leaks before it was official.  However, a source tipped off the Palm Beach Post.  The Post and a Texas newspaper ran with it.  It was at that point the Boston front office found out, swooped in, and beat the Rangers’ offer.  Those reporters altered history.

What do you see the Milwaukee Brewers doing with their pitching surplus?  Do you see them maybe using some of their excess pitchers like Capuano and Bush to acquire a young catcher with some upside? – Tyler

We’ve seen it a million times – these winter pitching surpluses turn into deficits by May.  There is certainly a case to be made for the Brewers to just stand pat, though all those arms would be tough to squeeze in given the bullpen acquisitions.  MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy expects some of the surplus to be traded before Spring Training.  I like the catcher idea – Jeff Clement (Mariners), Bryan Anderson (Cardinals), or Taylor Teagarden/Gerald Laird (Rangers) seem like possible matches.

Do the Yankees sign Bobby Abreu after the 2008 season? – Andrew

Andrew notes that the Yanks have some money coming off the books after the ’08 season.  The right field alternatives are weak, so Abreu could make sense.  If he’d take a two or three-year extension midseason I could see Cashman doing it.

Did you ever sell your place in Lombard? – Steve

Thankfully I did.  I tried selling by owner for a month and barely got any bites.  Then I hired an agent and she sold it in three days.

What Might’ve Been: Beckett And Lowell For Blalock And Danks

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At the suggestion of several readers, I’m starting up a new feature here at MLBTR called What Might’ve Been.  Basically we’ll look back at rumors and near-deals that did not end up happening, and consider how things would be if they had occurred.

Today’s near-rumor is from November 19th, 2005.  That day, the Marlins nearly traded Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to the Rangers for Hank Blalock and John Danks.

Let’s start with the Fish.  They would never have received Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, and others from Boston.  Instead they would’ve gotten Blalock in ’06 and Blalock plus Danks in ’07.  Some rough math using Baseball Prospectus’ WARP stat leads us to believe the Marlins would’ve had 11 fewer wins in ’06 and four fewer in ’07 if they made the Texas deal.  Take those 11 wins in ’06 and spread them around the NL, maybe the Astros or even Reds win the Central instead of the Cards.  Another consequence: Blalock at third might’ve meant Miguel Cabrera remained in left field.  Maybe then Josh Willingham ends up catching, doesn’t get his opportunity, or gets traded.

Moving on to the Rangers.  Swapping Blalock for Beckett and Lowell might’ve meant an extra eight wins in ’06 (again, rough math for the sake of the exercise).  Eight more wins still probably doesn’t put the ’06 Rangers in the playoffs.  Eleven marginal wins in ’07 with Beckett fronting their rotation and Lowell at third still wouldn’t have meant a playoff berth, even with an additional boost for not trading Mark Teixeira.  In real life, Beckett signed a three-year extension in July of ’06.  Maybe he wouldn’t have signed or been offered this by Jon Daniels.  Under that scenario Beckett would’ve been a free agent this winter, snagging a massive 5-7 year deal with the Red Sox, Yankees, or some other club.  And would the Red Sox have been more active on Alex Rodriguez this winter if they’d never had Lowell?  Moreso if they were not the ’07 World Champs? 

Speaking of the Red Sox: say they just hung on to Ramirez and Sanchez, for simplicity’s sake.  The Sox still would’ve traded Edgar Renteria and signed Alex Gonzalez before the ’06 season, but maybe Ramirez beats him out for the shortstop job.  Best case scenario, Ramirez over Gonzalez in ’06 nets the Sox six wins.  That’s at least negated by using Sanchez instead of Beckett and whoever instead of Lowell.  The Sox still would’ve missed the playoffs in ’06 – even if they’d signed Roger Clemens or A.J. Burnett after failing to acquire Beckett.   

The Beckett-less ’07 Red Sox would’ve probably reached the playoffs, given the huge boost in having Hanley instead of Julio Lugo.  The Lugo signing never would’ve happened; maybe he ends up with the Cubs or Mets, who made offers in real life.  Instead, the Red Sox might’ve tried to lure Aramis Ramirez or settled for Mark DeRosa as their ’07 third baseman.  Do the Red Sox make it past the Indians in the ALCS without Beckett?  Perhaps, if they had signed Burnett in the 2005-06 offseason and a decent third baseman in 2006-07.

By the way, the White Sox would not have been able to get Danks from the Marlins for Brandon McCarthy.  Who knows what Kenny Williams does with McCarthy in this alternate reality.

I’m dizzy.  Thoughts on the new feature, and any corrections on my speculation?  Any juicy consequences I missed?

Odds and Ends: Fukudome, Eckstein, Lowell

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Ah yes, the odds and ends post, where I cobble together the day’s random links.

  • The Rangers have mild interest Scott Podsednik.  Pods had two separate stints in the Rangers organization but never reached the bigs with them.
  • The Big Lead has an interesting interview with Yahoo baseball guy Jeff Passan, wherein a run-in with Jose Lima is recounted.  Passan also takes on Fire Joe Morgan a bit.
  • Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog is hearing that Kosuke Fukudome is looking for three years and $30MM.  Sounds fair.
  • The Angels are considering signing David Eckstein and/or Darin Erstad, for some reason.
  • Bob Dutton reports that the Royals can be patient with their offer to Torii Hunter, while the White Sox want a quick resolution.  Bonus: a rather large, but not too pixellated picture of Hunter at the Dutton link.  Hunter, by the way, could save $750K per year if he signs with the Rangers because Texas has no state income tax.  Hunter is also considering the Las Vegas 51s for that same reason, I heard. 
  • Per Buster Olney, the Dodgers put in a three-year offer to Mike Lowell.  He takes this as a sign they weren’t serious, but Ned Colletti has shown a tendency to offer fewer years and more per year.  He did this with Rafael Furcal and Jason Schmidt.  So maybe the Dodgers put out a 3/45 offer or something.
  • The Phils picked up oft-injured outfielder Chris Snelling from the Rays for cash.  He’s yet to accumulate 100 big league at-bats in a season, but maybe that’ll change in 2008.
  • Ed Wade + relievers = trouble.  Doug Brocail is on the radar.
  • McCovey Chronicles lists some realistic position player targets for the Giants, including Jeff Clement, Andy Marte, and Adam Lind.

Lowell Signs With Red Sox

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UPDATE: ESPN reports that the deal is for $37.5MM, so $12.5MM per year.  Lowell took more than $10MM less to stay with Boston.

UPDATE: Rob Bradford says the Red Sox and Lowell have agreed to the parameters of a three-year deal worth between $12-13MM annually.  The Sox had set a deadline today for Lowell to decide on their offer, and he took them up on it.

Buster Olney is reporting in his blog this morning that Mike Lowell is close to a three-year deal with the Red Sox.  That has to mean he’s leaving a significant amount of money on the table to re-sign.  Can’t see the Sox going past 3/45 on him.  There is a conflicting report on this – Rob Bradford doesn’t think a deal is close, noting a "healthy divide" between the sides.

Olney adds that aside from the near-obligatory Coco Crisp trade, the Red Sox will look into Johan Santana if he becomes available.  Santana would obviously be a luxury.  Since the Red Sox are officially a superpower, they’d have to check in on him.  Also keep in mind that Crisp and Santana trades could be related, as the Twins would likely demand Jacoby Ellsbury in any deal.  So if Crisp is dealt, Santana becomes a bit less likely.  Of course Theo could always surprise us and convince Andruw Jones to sign a one-year deal. 

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