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Nelson Cruz

West Notes: Mariners, Cruz, Rockies, Fowler

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A quick look at the latest from the AL and NL West..

AL West Links: Mariners, Cruz, Napoli, Preller, Angels

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"The expectation is" that the Mariners will target right-handed hitters such as Jhonny Peralta, Marlon Byrd, Mike Napoli and Nelson Cruz this offseason, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes.  The M's were particularly weak from the right side of the plate last season and will look to upgrade their right-handed bats, though really, Seattle will look to add hitting in any form.  Ken Rosenthal also noted that the Mariners were looking at right-handed hitters earlier this week, though he noted that the M's were in on Napoli.  Here's some more news from around the AL West…

  • Cruz declined his qualifying offer from the Rangers today and Adam Katz, Cruz's agent, told ESPN Dallas' Richard Durrett that he will continue to talk with the team about his client's possible return to Texas.  "We've always been engaged with the Rangers and continue to be," Katz said.  Durrett notes, the draft pick compensation tied to Cruz may hurt him in free agency, though MLBTR's Steve Adams recently predicted Cruz would find a three-year, $39MM deal on the open market.
  • Brian Grieper, Napoli's agent, is scheduled to meet with Rangers GM Jon Daniels during the GM Meetings, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweets.  The Rangers are known to be looking for an upgrade at first base and Napoli, a former Ranger, would definitely fit the bill.
  • The Rangers have promoted A.J. Preller to assistant general manager, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports (Twitter link).  Preller had previously worked as the team's senior director of player personnel.  Texas also named Mike Daly, formerly their director of international scouting, as the franchise's new senior director of minor league operations.
  • The Angels have been opposed to going over the luxury tax limit under Arte Moreno's ownership and that's not likely to change, MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez writes.  Gonzalez also looks at Mark Trumbo trade rumors and a possible Mike Trout extension as part of his all-Angels mailbag.
  • In another item from Gonzalez, he speculates about what the Angels might have to give up (and what the Rays might want) in order to facilitate a David Price trade.
  • Earlier today on MLBTR we collected another set of AL West notes earlier today on MLBTR, a set of Astros-related notes and learned that the Angels signed Wade LeBlanc to a minor league deal.

Nelson Cruz To Reject Qualifying Offer

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Representatives for Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz have informed the club that he will not accept the qualifying offer, a source tells Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram (via Twitter).  Cruz had until the 4pm CT deadline to make a decision, but it sounds like he won’t be taking things to the wire.  The rejection of the QO was widely expected.

The outfielder batted .266/.327/.506 with 27 homers in just 456 plate appearances in 2013.  Of course, Cruz missed 50 games thanks to his involvement in the Biogenesis PED scandal.  While there are many teams in need of a big bat, Cruz’s market could be limited by his defensive shortcomings and age (33).  Cruz comes in as the 17th best free agent on Tim Dierkes’ top 50 list.

With Cruz off the board, there are now a dozen players with qualifying offers remaining: Carlos Beltran, Robinson Cano, Shin-Soo Choo, Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Hiroki Kuroda, Brian McCann, Kendrys Morales, Mike Napoli, and Ervin Santana.

Rangers Notes: International Free Agents, Moreland, Lewis, Cruz

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In a special piece for Gammons Daily, Jamey Newberg examines the Rangers disappearance from the international free agent market from 2000 to 2005 and explains how re-entering that market in the middle of the last decade has saved the franchise. Martin Perez signed in 2007 for more money ($580K) than any Rangers international signee had received since 2000. Yesterday, he signed a four-year extension that could total seven years and $32.55MM based on a trio of club options. Here's more on the Rangers…

  • Newberg's piece above was inspired by an observation made by Nick J. Faleris of Baseball Prospectus (No. 11 on the list to which I've linked). Faleris points out the savvy nature of the Rangers' 2013-14 international spending spree. The Rangers blew past the new CBA's imposed cap for international free agents on the first day and will face harsh penalties that prevent them from spending more than $250K on a single international free agent next summer. However, starting in next year's international signing period, the penalty for the type of overages the Rangers took on this year doubles. In other words, any team that copies Texas' strategy will have its spending limit handcuffed in the summer of 2015 and the summer of 2016. The Cubs, of course, employed a similarly aggressive method in July.
  • Rangers GM Jon Daniels addressed reporters, including MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan, earlier today on a number of topics. Daniels said the team is receiving a number of calls on Mitch Moreland from teams that consider him a buy-low candidate. However as Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweeted, Daniels doesn't feel Moreland's power is something he can give up on (Twitter link).
  • Also from Sullivan's piece, Daniels said the team has made an offer to right-hander Colby Lewis (presumably a minor league deal), and they've been in contact with Nelson Cruz's agent, Adam Katz. The Rangers fully expect Cruz to decline his qualifying offer.
  • Daniels says the Rangers are willing to disucss their middle infield depth with other clubs. Other teams still have high regard for Jurickson Profar, he added.
  • ESPN Dallas' Richard Durrett also has some intel from Daniels' morning comments. Durrett reports that the team has internally discussed position switches for some of their infielders but has yet to approach any players with the idea.
  • Regarding the team's budget, Durrett quotes Daniels: "We have the ability to make the club better. I don’t know that we’re going to be the biggest spenders, but I don’t really want to be. I don’t think that’s the way to build it anyway."

Free Agent Profile: Nelson Cruz

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Nelson Cruz was on his way to perhaps the finest offensive season of his career until his connection to the Biogenesis PED scandal resulted in a 50-game suspension that effectively ended his regular season (he did play in the Game 163 tiebreaker against the Rays). While he's served his punishment and isn't at risk of further suspension in 2014, he'll still be somewhat of an uncertainty on the free agent market.

Strengths/Pros

Right-handed power is in short supply, and Cruz has it in spades. He didn't have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title this season, but among free agents with at least 200 plate appearances, Cruz's .240 isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) trails only Raul Ibanez's .244. Cruz-NelsonMike Napoli is often cited as the best source of right-handed pop on the free agent market, but Cruz belongs in the conversation right alongside his former teammate.

Cruz's 27 homers in 2013 are tied with Robinson Cano for second among free agents despite the fact that Cruz totaled just 477 plate appearances this season. Cruz hit 80 homers from 2011-13 — good for fourth overall among free agents — despite ranking 30th in plate appearances among qualified free agent hitters in that time.

Cruz has a platoon split for his career but still owns a lifetime .806 OPS against right-handed pitching. In 2013, he actually hit right-handers slightly better than he hit lefties. He also was more effective on the road this season, showing that he has the ability to produce outside of Rangers Ballpark.

Weaknesses/Cons

This season may have shown that he's capable of hitting on the road, but Cruz's .734 career road OPS is dwarfed by his .912 mark at home. Like many hitters before him, he's thrived at Rangers Ballpark, slashing .294/.356/.555 in 1,589 plate appearances. That .911 OPS in Arlington is 87 points higher than his career mark.

Walks have never been a strong point for Cruz. His 7.6 percent walk rate from 2012-13 is a near mirror image of his 7.9 percent career clip. Coupled with a rising strikeout rate (23.9 percent in 2013) and a 12.5 percent swinging-strike rate (9.3 was league average in 2013), it's safe to say that plate discipline is not an area in which Cruz excels.

It can be argued that a great deal of the value Cruz provides at the plate is given back by shaky work in the outfield. Speed used to be one of Cruz's assets earlier in his career (37 stolen bases and +3.6 runs on the basepaths from 2009-10, per Fangraphs), but his defensive ratings have plummeted with his stolen base totals. Cruz has cost his team between 14 and 21 runs from 2011-13, per Ultimate Zone Rating and The Fielding Bible, respectively. There's likely some correlation between the decline in speed and defensive skills and the four separate DL stints Cruz has had for hamstring-related injuries since 2010.

Cruz was suspended 50 games this season and accepted full responsibiity for his mistake in an interview with reporters, including Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times. Cruz said that he was diagnosed with helicobacter pylori, resulting in a weight loss of nearly 40 pounds, prior to the 2012 season: "Just weeks before I was to report to Spring Training in 2012, I was unsure whether I would be physically able to play. Faced with this situation, I made an error in judgment that I deeply regret, and I accept full responsibility for that error."

The Rangers made a qualifying offer to Cruz, meaning he'll be tied to draft pick compensation.The thought of sacrificing a first- or secound-round pick for a 33-year-old outfielder with a slipping defensive reputation is likely somewhat of a deterrent to teams that may show interest.

Personal

Cruz is an accomplished two-sport athlete, having played basketball for the Dominican Republic Junior National Team earlier in life. His father played professional baseball in the Dominican Republic, so athleticism is clearly in his genes. He's done quite a bit of charity work, including recent donations to aid in the purchase of fire trucks and ambulances in the city of Las Matas Santa Cruz near his hometown in the Dominican Republic. Cruz and his wife have two children.

Cruz has always been well-liked and well-regarded in the clubhouse, and the Rangers clearly didn't sour on him even after his 50-game suspension. He was welcomed back to the team, and manager Ron Washington offered high praise for Cruz: "When you think about a Nelson Cruz, who wouldn't want a Nelson Cruz? Big heart, great teammate."

Market

Within that same article, Washington voiced a strong desire for Cruz to return in 2014. A midseason acquisition of Alex Rios likely means the Rangers are set in right field; unlike Cruz, Rios is a defensive asset in right. However, the Rangers still have a need in left field and at DH, so a new contract for Cruz could definitely be in the cards.

Outside of the Rangers, the Royals have a clear hole in right field and no prospects to fill it following the trade of Wil Myers. The Pirates could also use a right field upgrade as well after posting a wRC+ of just 99 that was boosted largely by the efforts of the departing Marlon Byrd. The Phillies are known to be looking for a right-handed bat after GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said he doesn't consider Darin Ruf an everyday player, and the Rockies could also look to install Cruz in right field and transition Michael Cuddyer to first base. MLBTR's Zach Links pointed out the slight irony of the D-Backs' need for a power-hitting outfielder recently, and Cruz could fit the bill for them as well. The Mariners, Yankees, Orioles, Mets and Giants, each with corner outfield/DH vacancies and a need for more offense, strike me as fits as well.

Expected Contract

Cruz's admitted PED usage was prior to the 2012 season, so while some may question the validity of his monstrous 2013 numbers, it doesn't appear that there's any PED link to this year's performance. Cruz has always shown plus power, and power pays handsomely on the open market. He may be below average defensively, but he's far from the worst outfielder in the league. He should have no problem landing a multiyear deal.

Cruz is among the best right-handed power bats on the market along with Napoli, who Tim Dierkes projected to receive three years and $42MM. Hunter Pence received a five-year, $90MM contract from the Giants, but he's three years younger, a better defender and that was top of the market value. I imagine that agent Adam Katz of the Wasserman Media Group will seek a four-year deal. Given his age, questionable defense and Biogenesis connection, I'm skeptical that four guaranteed years is realistic, though I won't be completely shocked if it happens.

Ultimately, as a reliable source of 25 home runs (at least) from the right side of the dish, my expectation is that Cruz can overcome any perceived warts to find a three-year, $39MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. 

Rangers Extend Qualifying Offer To Nelson Cruz

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MONDAY: The Rangers officially announced that they have issued a qualifying offer to Cruz.

WEDNESDAY: The Rangers will extend a one-year, $14.1MM qualifying offer to free agent outfielder Nelson Cruz, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports.  General manager Jon Daniels said earlier this month that such a move was likely to happen and now tells Grant that the qualifying offer is "a relatively easy decision" for the team. 

"We’d be happy to have him back on a one-year deal. And we’re not prohibited from continuing to talk to him while he sees what the market is. If he signs elsewhere, we get a draft pick that helps us as well," Daniels said.

Cruz is expected to reject the qualifying offer in search of a multiyear commitment after hitting .266/.327/.506 with 27 homers in 456 PA in 2013, roughly matching his average numbers since the start of the 2009 season.  His free agent market could be limited by the fact that Cruz is 33 years old, a defensive liability in right field and was suspended for 50 games for his connection to the Biogenesis PED scandal.  The draft pick compensation attached to his rejection of a qualifying offer will further limit Cruz's list of suitors, though that could potentially help the Rangers if they make an effort to re-sign him.

Latest On Nelson Cruz, Joe Nathan

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4:25pm: MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan, who was also in attendance, writes that Daniels and his staff are wary of committing to closer Joe Nathan on a multiyear deal: "That has never been our preference … to invest big money in the bullpen," Daniels said.

Nathan can void the $9.5MM club option on his contract and is expected to do so in search of a multiyear deal. He's coming off perhaps the best season of his outstanding career, having posted a 1.39 ERA with 10.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and 43 saves in 64 2/3 innings. Nathan's ERA+ of 297 is the best single-season mark of his career.

Daniels stated that he's glad to have signed Nathan and will continue to discuss the possibility of retaining his closer with his staff.

4:15pm: Rangers GM Jon Daniels addressed the media following his team's loss to the Rays in Game 163 and indicated that he expects to make a qualiying offer to impending free agent Nelson Cruz. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, who was on-hand for the press conference, quotes Daniels:

"We’re going to need corner run production. We’re going to need power. Obviously, Nellie’s been a source of that here for the last few years. The first order of business we’ll have to decide is whether we extend the qualifying offer to him. I would expect we will."

Texas will have until five days after the World Series ends to formally extend a qualifying offer to Cruz, who batted .266/.327/.506 with 27 homers in just 456 plate appearances in 2013. Cruz, of course, was suspended for 50 games as well due to his involvement with the Biogenesis PED scandal. The Rangers welcomed him back to the team for Game 163, and each side has expressed mutual interest in a return in 2014.

A qualifying offer this season is expected to be worth $14MM, which would represent a significant increase in Cruz's $10MM salary from 2013. It's also a steep price to pay for a player who hasn't exceeded two wins above replacement in any of the past three seasons due to defesive limitations and a below-average walk rate. Should Cruz decline the offer, the Rangers would receive a compensatory draft pick were he to sign elsewhere.

Cruz is the second AL West player this week to be connected to a qualifying offer; Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik said recently that he would extend a qualifying offer to Kendrys Morales.

AL West Notes: Rangers, McCann, Cruz, Angels, Astros

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The Rangers' season came to an end last night after a 5-2 loss to the Rays in Game 163, shifting the team's focus to the upcoming offseason. General manager Jon Daniels told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports last night that there's "no question" Ron Washington will be the manager of next season's team (Twitter link). Here's more on the Rangers and the rest of the AL West…

  • Danny Knobler of CBS Sports writes that the Rangers will likely target Brian McCann in free agency this offseason, as they've attempted to acquire him via trade multiple times and have had scouts following him closely.  That fits with Tim Dierkes' thoughts from McCann's recent free agent profile here at MLBTR.
  • Nelson Cruz wants to be back with the Rangers in 2014, he told reporters, including Michael Florek of the Dallas Morning News. Cruz called the ovation he received in his first at-bat last night "special" and said he feels he's dealt with his mistakes and is ready to move on.
  • Both A.J. Pierzynski and Geovany Soto would like to return to the Rangers, writes Todd Wills of ESPNDallas.com. However, the team's potential pursuit of McCann could take precedence. Durrett also notes that Washington would love to have Joe Nathan back to close games for him in 2014. Nathan can void his option and is likely to seek a multiyear deal. Wills also notes that Washington would welcome Cruz back to the team as well. "Who wouldn't want Nelson Cruz?" asked Washington.
  • Some within the Angels camp expect both manager Mike Scioscia and GM Jerry Dipoto to return in 2014, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. There have been rumors that one of the two is headed out the door.
  • With a young core now taking shape, Astros owner Jim Crane tells MLB.com's Brian McTaggart that the payroll will increase in 2014 and the team will look to add some free agents into the mix. Crane specifically mentions a power bat, help for the back of the rotation and bullpen arms as areas of need.

AL Notes: Cruz, Yankees, Wedge, Blue Jays

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Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz will be back for Game 163 against the Rays, writes Scott Miller of CBS Sports. Cruz, who was suspended for 50 games for his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal, will be activated in time for the game on Monday. Cruz adds a big bat to Texas' lineup, and for what it's worth, he has good numbers against Rays starter David Price in a small sample. Miller contrasts Cruz's situation with Melky Cabrera's disappearance from the Giants last season — unlike Cabrera, Cruz put his team in a good position to opt to activate him because he expressed regret about what he had done and stayed in touch with his teammates. Here are more notes from the American League.

  • Upper-level Yankees employees were frustrated that the team got so little high-end help from its farm system this year, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. There may be "a scapegoat or two" for that problem, but not GM Brian Cashman or manager Joe Girardi. Instead, scouting director Damon Oppenheimer or senior vice president of baseball operations Mark Newman could be out of a job.
  • Eric Wedge, who managed his last game with the Mariners on Sunday, left his post with dignity, says Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times. His decision to leave the team may have seemed strange, particularly after GM Jack Zduriencik said he had no plans to fire Wedge. But, Baker says, Wedge "doesn’t just talk the talk. He walks the walk, even when it required him to swallow some job security and walk the walk right on out of here."
  • The Blue Jays could aim to trade relievers this offseason, Shi Davidi of SportsNet.ca writes. "The club’s surplus of relievers is one area of depth we might have that could be attractive to other teams," says GM Alex Anthopoulos. "[I]t will not surprise me if maybe we use some of that depth to help the club in some other areas." Despite suffering through a disappointing season in 2013, the Jays finished with the fourth-best bullpen ERA in the American League, at 3.39. Given their salaries and 2013 performance, Casey Janssen, Steve Delabar, Brett Cecil and Aaron Loup would all make attractive trade candidates.

Rangers Links: Daniels, Garza, Cruz, Washington

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As the Rangers enter tonight's action 1.5 games behind the Indians for the last AL wild card spot, here's the latest from Arlington…

  • Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan reported today that Rangers GM Jon Daniels was pressured by ownership to acquire Matt Garza in July, but the report is "not accurate," Daniels told ESPN Dallas' Todd Wills. "Ownership has been as supportive as they possibly can be. They want to win, but they've never forced our hand on any move. I'm really fortunate," Daniels said.  "I'm not saying that because they pay my paychecks. It's the truth. They haven't forced us to do anything or pressured or anything like that. They've been as supportive as any ownership team or ownership group in the sport."
  • Daniels and the Rangers knew for months that Nelson Cruz could face a PED suspension but didn't adequately prepare for losing him from their roster, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal writes.  While Texas did trade for Alex Rios, Rosenthal argues that the club needed hitting beyond just what Cruz (or a replacement) brought to the lineup.
  • With the Rangers in danger of a second consecutive September collapse and a tough World Series loss in 2011, ESPN's David Schoenfield argues that Ron Washington shouldn't be brought back as the team's manager.  Daniels said last week that Washington would return in 2014 and those within the organization expect the same.
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