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The Cubs’ Third Base Options

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The Cubs have made a number of additions to their lineup, none more impactful than the signing of Dansby Swanson at shortstop. That pushed Nico Hoerner over to second base. Chicago also brought in Cody Bellinger to play center field, signed Tucker Barnhart to share time with Yan Gomes at catcher in place of Willson Contreras, and added Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer for the first base/designated hitter mix.

It was a dramatic overhaul, with the corner outfield tandem of Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki the only players whose positions haven’t seemed up in the air at any point. The other position the front office left untouched, third base, looks as if it’ll come down to a battle between a handful of internal options with the free agent market all but picked through. There are two players who have the clearest path to reps at the hot corner in the early going.

Patrick Wisdom

Wisdom has been the primary third baseman on Chicago’s north side for the last two seasons. He’s tallied just under 700 plate appearances at the position since the start of 2021, handily topping second-place Matt Duffy (204 PAs in 2021). The only other player with even 100+ trips to the dish as a third baseman, David Bote, lost his spot on the 40-man roster at the start of the offseason.

Signed to a minor league deal over the 2020-21 offseason (following a cup of coffee with the MLB club the year before), Wisdom has combined for 53 home runs and 41 doubles in 239 games over the last two years. He carries a .465 slugging percentage and .248 isolated power mark over 909 plate appearances, continually making an impact from a power perspective. The right-handed hitter has paired that with significant on-base concerns, however. He’s hit just .217 while reaching base at a below-average .301 rate. That’s mostly due to massive swing-and-miss in his game, as he’s gone down on strikes in 37% of his plate appearances. That’s the highest rate in the majors for any player with as much playing time, narrowly topping Joey Gallo’s 36.6% clip.

Wisdom’s power has been sufficient to manage a slightly above-average slash line in spite of the contact issues. That’s fine production, particularly when paired with the above-average defensive grades he managed in 2021. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average estimated he was well below average with the glove last season, however, leading both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference to value his 2022 campaign around one win above replacement.

The 31-year-old has proven he deserves a spot on an MLB roster and the Cubs have made out exceptionally well on their no-risk signing two years ago. Yet the on-base and defensive concerns suggest Wisdom might be better suited as a role-playing power bat who can rotate through all four corner positions off the bench than as an everyday third baseman. He’s been far better against lefties (.238/.329/.533) than against righties (.209/.290/.438) over the past two seasons.

Christopher Morel

If the Cubs were to scale back Wisdom’s playing time, Morel would seem to be the primary beneficiary. The 23-year-old made his major league debut last season and generally impressed, albeit with some of the same question marks facing Wisdom. Morel connected on 16 home runs, 19 doubles and four triples in just 435 trips to the plate. He posted an overall .235/.306/.433 line through his first 113 big league contests. That slightly topped Wisdom’s .207/.298/.426 showing from last season.

That said, Morel also struggled significantly to make contact. He struck out in 32.2% of his plate appearances. Perhaps more alarming was that he swung and missed at 18.1% of the pitches he saw. That was the sixth-highest rate in MLB (minimum 400 PAs), and those concerns became more pronounced down the stretch. Morel carried an impressive .266/.338/.477 line into the All-Star Break despite a 30.7% strikeout rate. In the second half, his strikeout percentage jumped to 34.2% and he limped to a .194/.269/.376 finish.

At age 23, Morel is certainly capable of taking a step forward as he gains experience against big league pitching. He’s long flashed promising power but posted higher than average strikeout totals throughout his time in the minors. Concerns about his bat-to-ball skills kept him from emerging as a top-tier prospect prior to his debut despite evaluators’ praise for his power potential, athleticism and arm strength. Morel’s an interesting player, but one whose approach could make him a volatile offensive performer. He had reverse platoon splits in 2022, hitting .190/.297/.300 against left-handers against a .251/.313/.470 mark versus righties. That’s too small a sample from which to glean meaningful conclusions, though Wisdom’s more traditional splits could point towards him getting a few more reps against left-handed arms than Morel will.

It’s a similar story on the other side of the ball. Morel played mostly infield in the minor leagues, with third base his primary position. The Cubs bounced him around the diamond at the MLB level but deployed him most often in center field, hoping his speed and arm strength would translate. DRS and Statcast agreed he was a below-average center fielder in spite of his athleticism, as his inexperience at the position was evident. He also drew lackluster marks in limited action on the left side of the infield, though the sample in that case was exceedingly small.

Other Options

While Wisdom and Morel seem the two likeliest candidates to battle for playing time, the Cubs have a few other infield options on the 40-man roster. Miles Mastrobuoni, 27, was acquired from the Rays at the start of the offseason. He has only eight MLB games under his belt but hit .300/.377/.469 with 16 homers and 23 stolen bases in 573 plate appearances with Triple-A Durham last year. He’s primarily been a second baseman in the minors but has experience everywhere on the diamond aside from first base and catcher. His left-handed bat would pair well with the righty-hitting Wisdom and Morel if skipper David Ross wanted to play matchups. Mastrobuoni mashed at a .315/.396/.497 clip while holding the platoon advantage in 2022.

Nick Madrigal was displaced by Hoerner’s move to second base. He had a dismal 2022 season, hitting just .249/.305/.282 in 59 games while thrice landing on the injured list thanks to a back strain and strains of both groins. Madrigal had started the previous season with a solid .305/.349/.425 showing for the White Sox before suffering a season-ending hamstring tear. He’s only ever played up the middle dating back to his time at Oregon State — primarily at the keystone — but third base might be the clearest path to getting his bat in the lineup if the front office is still intrigued by his elite bat-to-ball ability.

His 5’8″, 175-pound frame isn’t the build of a traditional third baseman and that’s been manifested in his below-average arm strength. Perhaps that’s untenable at third base, though the Cubs could at least consider getting him some work at the hot corner to expand his defensive flexibility. It’s also at least worth contemplating whether Hoerner could kick to third base if Madrigal earns everyday playing time but isn’t capable of manning the left side of the infield.

The Cubs also picked up Zach McKinstry from the Dodgers in last summer’s Chris Martin trade. The 27-year-old has just a .208/.269/.384 line in 121 big league games over the last three years. He got 171 trips to the plate for the Cubs down the stretch, hitting .206/.272/.361. McKinstry has the ability to play second, third and both corner outfield spots and is a .323/.401/.550 hitter in parts of three Triple-A campaigns. He’s out of minor league option years and has to stick on the active roster or be taken off the 40-man entirely. Given his lack of big league track record, he could find himself on the bubble — particularly if the Cubs want to give Mastrobuoni a lengthier look instead.

There are a handful of players behind this group on the depth chart who’ll be in camp as non-roster invitees. Bote, Esteban Quiroz and Jared Young all remain in the organization after clearing waivers in November. Sergio Alcántara signed a minor league deal this offseason, while former second-round pick Chase Strumpf got an MLB invite after hitting .234/.379/.461 with Double-A Tennessee.

———————-

While there are a few candidates who could play their way into consideration, it’d appear the third base job will be a battle between Wisdom and Morel to open the year. Both have minor league options remaining. The former has a more established big league track record, while the latter probably has greater upside but might also be more likely to post untenable numbers on both sides of the ball. They’re broadly similar as right-handed power bats with OBP concerns, though Morel has a little more defensive versatility if he’s relegated to a utility role.

Central Notes: O’Neill, Paddack, Madrigal

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Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill missed almost a month in the middle of this season, from mid-June to mid-July, due to a left hamstring strain. He went back on the IL September 17 due to the same injury, a left hamstring strain. At the time, it was reported as a Grade 1 strain, which is the less-serious variety. Regardless, over a week later, an O’Neill return doesn’t seem close.

Team president John Mozeliak was asked about the possibility of O’Neill returning in the postseason and had this to say, per Jim Hayes of Bally Sports Midwest: “I think there’s a shot, but obviously the clock is ticking.” That doesn’t seem to indicate the Cards are banking on a return. The club has now clinched the NL Central but are seven games behind the Mets and Braves, who are tied atop the East, and even further behind the Dodgers. That means they are destined to play in the first round of the playoffs against whoever finishes with the third Wild Card spot. Each round that they survive will increase the chances of O’Neill coming back, but he wouldn’t be able to find a rehab stint with the minor league seasons winding down. Even if he’s healthy, the Cards would have to view a rusty O’Neill as a better option than their current outfielders in order for him to get a shot.

O’Neill had a career year last year by hitting 34 home runs and swiping 15 bases on his way to producing 5.6 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. This year, various injuries have limited him to just 96 games and diminished production when on the field, with his .286/.352/.560 batting line from last year slipping to .228/.308/.392. Without him in the mix, the St. Louis outfield is currently composed of Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson, Corey Dickerson, Juan Yepez, Alec Burleson and Ben DeLuzio.

More notes from the Central divisions…

  • Twins right-hander Chris Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery in May and is now targeting an August 2023 return, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. The surgery usually comes with a 12-18 month recovery window, but this is the second such procedure of Paddack’s career, having previously gone under the knife as a prospect in 2016. Paddack tells Park that the second recovery is going to take a bit longer, meaning the narrow end of the typical recovery window is closed. Since the best-case scenario involves Paddack missing the bulk of next year, the club will have to plan on building a rotation without him. He was just one of several Twins who missed significant time with injury this year, preventing them from hanging onto the AL Central lead that they held for a good chunk of the year. On paper, the 2023 rotation in Minnesota consists of Sonny Gray, who is sure to have his option exercised, alongside Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober for four slots. Kenta Maeda could be a factor for the fifth, though he’ll be an unknown quantity after missing all of this year recovering from his own Tommy John surgery of the internal brace variety. Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer both have options that are unlikely to be exercised, subtracting them from the equation. The club could look for outside help given the uncertainty around Maeda, though they will also have internal options like Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Cole Sands, Jordan Balazovic, Devin Smeltzer and Simeon Woods Richardson, with Paddack hopefully joining them down the stretch.
  • Cubs infielder Nick Madrigal is on the injured list and won’t be returning this season, manager David Ross tells Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. Madrigal landed on the shelf September 10 due to a groin strain, his second groin-related trip to the IL this year. It’s the second straight injury-marred campaign for him, after he was limited to 54 games in 2021 and just 59 here in 2022. He hit .305/.349/.425 last year but saw that line dip to .249/.305/.282 in this campaign. He came into this season with one year and 164 days of MLB service time, meaning he’s a lock to reach arbitration as a Super Two player this winter, though he likely won’t earn a huge raise given all the time he’s missed. The Cubs aren’t likely to be competitive in 2023 but will still want to see Madrigal show better results in order to keep him in their plans going forward.

NL Injury Notes: Madrigal, Wisdom, Dominguez, Eflin, Wheeler, Bryant

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The Cubs placed second baseman Nick Madrigal on the 10-day injured list due to a right groin strain, and activated Patrick Wisdom (left ring finger sprain) from the 10-day IL to fill the open roster spot.  Madrigal suffered the injury in yesterday’s game, and given the lack of time remaining in the season, it isn’t out of the question that Madrigal might be shut down entirely.  This is the second groin injury (the first strain was to Madrigal’s left groin) and third injury overall for the second baseman in 2022, after a back problem cost him three weeks in May.

Overall, Madrigal has played in only 59 games this season, only slightly topping the 54 games he played during a 2021 campaign that was shortened by hamstring surgery.  While Madrigal is still eyed as the Cubs’ second baseman of the future, this health history is already concerning, and it’s fair to say that his injuries were certainly a factor in his .249/.305/.282 slash line in 228 PA this season.  With the Cubs out of contention, their eyes are on 2023, and aren’t likely to push Madrigal back onto the field unless his current groin issue ends up being pretty minor.

Updates on other injury situations from around the National League…

  • Phillies interim manager Rob Thomson updated reporters (including MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki) on several injured Philadelphia players, including two pitchers ready to return to the mound.  Seranthony Dominguez will be activated prior to tomorrow’s game against the Nationals, after missing a little over three weeks due to right triceps tendinitis.  Zach Eflin will be activated from the 60-day IL prior to Tuesday’s game, with Eflin possibly working as an opener as he embarks on a new role as a relief pitcher.  Eflin has been out since late June due to knee problems, and with less time to ramp up for a starter’s workload, Philadelphia will instead use Eflin out of the bullpen.  Zack Wheeler (forearm tendinitis) won’t be back until at least September 20, but Wheeler threw 15 pitches off a mound today, and Thomson said Wheeler will throw a proper bullpen session on Monday or Tuesday.
  • Kris Bryant hasn’t played since July 31 due to plantar fasciitis, and Rockies manager Bud Black wasn’t sure if the slugger would be able to return before the season is over.  “There is time but I don’t know if it’s going to happen…He hasn’t had a bat in his hand for a while, but he’s feeling much better,” Black told reporters, including The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders.  Bryant has been able to play catch and lift weights now that he is no longer in a walking boot, though it remains to be seen when (or if) he’d be able to take part in fuller baseball activities.  Between the platar fasciitis and two separate IL stints due to back injuries, Bryant’s first year with the Rockies has essentially been a lost season, with only 42 games played.  The one bright spot is that Bryant at least hit well when he was able to play, contributing a .306/.376/.475 slash line and five homers in 181 plate appearances.

Cubs Notes: Suzuki, Madrigal, Schwindel, Stroman

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The Cubs have a number of players on the injured list who are nearing their return. The closest to returning is rookie outfielder Seiya Suzuki, who could rejoin the club as early as tomorrow, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). Suzuki was the man of the hour in April as his Major League career got off to a bang, slashing .279/.405/.529 across 84 plate appearances in March and April. May was less kind to Suzuki as he hit .211/.279/.338 across 79 plate appearances before landing on the injured list with a right finger sprain. Suzuki has been out for almost six weeks now.

Zooming out, the Cubs are taking stock of what kind of talent they have on hand this season, with Suzuki presumably a part of the long-term outfield picture, along with rookie Christopher Morel and veteran Ian Happ, though Morel and Happ both have enough versatility to move around the diamond a bit. Another piece of that long-term position player picture is second baseman Nick Madrigal, who plans on taking live batting practice on Tuesday, notes Bastian. Madrigal missed three weeks with a back issue and returned to the lineup for just under two weeks before landing back on the shelf with a groin strain that’s kept him out of action for another three weeks.

This season was supposed to be a time for Madrigal to establish himself along with Nico Hoerner as the middle infield of the future in Chicago. Madrigal wasn’t hitting much, with just a 45 wRC+ through 115 plate appearances. That said, he wasn’t having much batted ball luck (.264 BABIP). He was striking out a little more than usual – though with a 14.3 percent strikeout rate, he was still putting the ball in play far more often than the average Major Leaguer. It’s a small sample size on which to judge Madrigal, and the Cubs would love to see him return soon to start taking ABs back from David Bote and Andrelton Simmons.

First baseman Frank Schwindelwill join Madrigal for some batting practice on Tuesday as he aims to return from a couple of weeks away with a lower back strain. Swindel’s long-term role on the Cubs is less obvious, given that he’s already 30 years old, but he’s also not likely to be arbitration-eligible until the 2025 season. Schwindel could turn into an interesting trade piece, but he’ll have to hit better upon his return. Currently, Frank the Tank owns just an 83 wRC+ on the year. As a right-handed first baseman/designated hitter, Schwindel will need to hit in order to generate much value, be that on the diamond or in a trade.

On the other side of the ball, the Cubs have a pair of starting pitchers in Marcus Stroman and Drew Smyly who will make rehab starts this week. Smyly begins his rehab with a start in Single-A on Monday, while Stroman is closer to returning to Wrigley, pitching for the Iowa Cubs in Triple-A. All of the Cubs’ veteran additions to the rotation have struggled to stay healthy this season, with Stroman and Smyly making nine starts apiece thus far, while Wade Miley has taken the hill just four times.

Injury Notes: Rays, Cubs, Angels

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The Rays placed starter Drew Rasmussen on the 15-day injured list yesterday (retroactive to June 12) with a left hamstring strain. Ralph Garza Jr. was recalled to take his roster spot. The 26-year-old Rasmussen has been solid for Tampa over 12 starts, posting a 3.41 ERA/3.90 FIP across 58 innings. Garza has been a frequent call-up for Kevin Cash’s club, making 11 appearances with a 3.27 ERA/4.64 FIP over 22 innings. He’ll return to his spot in the bullpen for now. Elsewhere around the game…

  • The Cubs placed second baseman Nick Madrigal on the 10-day injured list yesterday with a left groin strain. The move was retroactive to June 12th. The Cubbies were lauded for their acquisition of the 25-year-old, but he has yet to find his stride in Wrigleyville, hitting just .222/.263/.250 through 115 plate appearances. He’s been solid defensively, however, posting 3 DRS without making an error thus far. Veteran Jonathan Villar has taken over at the keystone in Madrigal’s absence, with Andrelton Simmons and rookie Christopher Morel also seeing some run there.
  • The Angels are nearing a decision point about Anthony Rendon, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. Rendon has missed four games because of the same wrist that caused him to miss 12 games earlier this month. If he can’t get back in the lineup soon, the Angels won’t have much choice but to put him back on the shelf. A litany of setbacks has kept Rendon from achieving his Nationals form over his three-year tenure with the Angels. So far this season, he was slashing .228/.324/.383, not a bad mark overall (106 wRC+), though still lacking in the power department.

Cubs Notes: Hoerner, Payroll, Simmons, Madrigal

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After a 15-run loss at the hands of the Reds yesterday, the Cubs dropped into fourth place in the NL Central at 18-26. Chicago’s early performance hasn’t been too far off preseason expectations. After the Cubs watched much of their previous core depart, the 2022 season looked likely to be a transitional year.

Particularly as playoff contention becomes more far-fetched, it makes sense for the organization to use this year as an opportunity to evaluate potential members of the next competitive Cubs’ team. To that end, manager David Ross indicated this week that Nico Hoerner will be the primary shortstop throughout the season (link via Patrick Mooney of the Athletic). That’s in spite of the club’s offseason signing of Andrelton Simmons to a $4MM deal.

“Nico has proven that he can play big-league shortstop pretty consistently already in this season,” Ross said. “Let’s see what happens at the end of the year and assess there. It’s easy to say you can be a big-league shortstop long term, but you also have to do it. You have to prove it. … We’ll move them around a little bit, but Nico will be starting shortstop.”

It’s a sensible course for the organization, as the 25-year-old Hoerner is controllable for another three seasons via arbitration. A former first-round pick, the Stanford product has shown promise on both sides of the ball over the past couple years. Hoerner didn’t hit a single home run in 170 plate appearances last season, but he made contact at a plus rate and reached base at a strong .382 clip. He’s seen a dramatic dip in his walk and on-base numbers early in 2022, but he’s collected a trio of homers — his first since his 2019 rookie season. Hoerner owns a .292/.350/.392 slash line dating back to the start of the 2021 campaign.

Hoerner was a well-regarded prospect, but some evaluators questioned whether he’d eventually need to slide over to second base. He’s split his MLB time nearly evenly between the middle infield spots (with additional cameos at third base and in the outfield), and public defensive metrics have loved his work at both positions. Hoerner has never had a full season’s worth of reps of at shortstop, however, and the likely non-competitive 2022 campaign affords the Cubs an opportunity to give him that challenge.

The team’s evaluation is particularly meaningful when one considers the upcoming free agent class. Chicago elected not to make a major splash at shortstop last time, watching as Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, old friend Javier Báez and Trevor Story signed elsewhere. The Cubs, meanwhile, took lower-cost shots on Simmons and Jonathan Villar while turning things over to their internal options.

Next winter’s shortstop class may not be quite as strong, but there’ll be a handful of high-end players yet again. Correa can opt out of his deal with the Twins, while Xander Bogaerts is a near-lock to do the same on his contract with the Red Sox. Trea Turner will hit free agency for the first time, as will Dansby Swanson. The Cubs could be a viable suitor for any of that group, particularly if they’re willing to push payroll upwards to reopen a contention window.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests the organization could do just that, writing that they’re “expected to spend again next winter.” That’s not to say the Cubs sat out this past offseason. They signed a staggering 12 players to big league free agent deals, but only Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman commanded especially notable long-term investments. The bulk of the team’s moves were shorter, lower-risk additions on the margins of the roster.

The team’s long-term spending outlook leaves open the possibility for a more aggressive run at top-of-the-market talents a few months from now. According to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, the Cubs have around $94MM in guaranteed commitments on the books for 2023. Ian Happ will be in line for a fairly significant arbitration salary — assuming he’s not traded this summer — but the team should otherwise have a fairly light class. That’d leave some room for additions even before reaching the approximate $145MM Opening Day player payrolls of the past two seasons, and the organization has spent north of $200MM on their rosters in the past.

Whether the Cubs dive into the top of the shortstop market could be determined by how Hoerner performs over the coming months. In the nearer term, Hoarder’s regular playing time means Simmons is set to take on an unfamiliar utility role. The 32-year-old has never played a big league inning outside of shortstop (aside from yesterday’s mop-up pitching performance), but Ross indicated he’s likely to see time at second base moving forward.

Simmons is generally regarded as the best defensive shortstop of his generation, and there’s little doubt he can handle second base with similar excellence. Yet he’s coming off a dismal offensive season with the Twins, and there probably won’t be room for him in the regular infield when the Cubs are at full strength. Patrick Wisdom is the primary third baseman, while Nick Madrigal is likely to play regularly at the keystone when he returns from the injured list.

Madrigal has been out for a couple weeks with a lower back issue, but the team announced that he’ll report to Triple-A Iowa for a rehab assignment this weekend (h/t to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). Acquired from the White Sox in last summer’s Craig Kimbrel swap, Madrigal has hit just .203/.250/.241 through his first 23 games with his new club. Nevertheless, the contact-oriented infielder is controllable through 2026 and a potential core piece, so he’ll surely be in the everyday lineup once healthy.

Cubs Place Nick Madrigal On 10-Day IL, Select Ildemaro Vargas, Designate Adrian Sampson For Assignment

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The Cubs announced a flurry of roster moves this evening, most prominently sending second baseman Nick Madrigal to the 10-day IL with low back tightness. The team also selected Triple-A infielder Ildemaro Vargas’s contract, designating right-handed pitcher Adrian Sampson for assignment to open up a 40-man roster spot for Vargas.

Madrigal, acquired in last season’s cross-town trade for Craig Kimbrel, was hitting a pedestrian .203/.250/.241 (43 OPS+) at the time of his IL placement. There’s still plenty of time for the 25-year-old to turn it around when he returns to the field, though a few things stick out in his early season offensive performance. Chief among them, Madrigal’s elite contact abilities have eluded him to a notable extent thus far.

His 16.7% strikeout rate, while considerably better than the league average, is more than double his career rate entering the season. The former first-rounder is hitting the ball with more authority than ever, however, which may eventually lead to a more impressive batting line than the one that is currently present. Madrigal’s defense has also remained top-notch, largely offsetting the contact hitter’s lack of offense in the eyes of most defensive metrics.

Vargas meanwhile returned to the organization this winter on a minor league deal and was hitting .279/.321/.413 in 25 Triple-A contests. Offense isn’t Vargas’s calling card though, as his promotion stems from his ability to play all around the infield, a must-have for a three-man Cubs bench.

Sampson, another offseason minor league signee, pitched to an excellent 2.80 ERA in 35 plus innings (10 games) for the Cubs last season as a swingman. Advanced metrics weren’t terribly bullish about his performance however, which helps explain the minor league pact and the right-hander’s lack of opportunity with the big league team this season. The 30-year-old has continued to have a decent run in Triple-A this year, so it will be interesting to see if the Cubs can keep him in their organization as depth or if a team hurting with injuries will seek to claim him in the coming days.

Cubs Eschewing Power In New Ways

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Last season, as most of Major League Baseball moved incontrovertibly towards a high velocity, strikeout-forward approach, the Cubs put together a soft-tossing rotation not at all focused on missing bats. Headlined by Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies, perhaps the two preeminent control artists in the sport, the Cubs unique approach aimed–quite literally–to induce weak contact rather than avoid it. If success was a long shot, there was at least a strategy, even if their zag to the league’s zig was prompted by need.

Chicago’s pipeline of pitching talent had gone dry. The Jon Lester– Jake Arrieta-Hendricks triumvirate was the engine of the 2015-2017 peak Cubs. When they came to power in 2015, Cubs’ starters finished third overall in the Majors with a 3.36 ERA. They topped the sport by measure of ERA in 2016 with a 2.96 mark. By 2017, they had begun to slip, down to seventh overall with a 4.04 mark.

The magic was gone. As Arrieta’s superhuman years faded into the background, the Cubs let him walk in free agency. They made moves to replace him–trading for Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels, and Jose Quintana–some moves came before he left and some came after, but none could stand up to Arrieta in his short, but astronomical peak. Lester began to age, Darvish’s return to frontline status was a slow burn, and the Cubs settled into a groove of good, but unremarkable rotations, finishing 10th overall by ERA in 2018 and 2019.

David Ross’ squad sprinted to a sixth overall finish in 2020 by ERA as Darvish and Hendricks gave them a semblance of the staffs from the peak Cubs. Maybe their success emboldened the front office to give the offensive core one more opportunity to recapture the magic of the 2016 title run. But as we now know, the Cubs were at their best when driven by a top-notch rotation, and in 2021, they were stuck in the slow lane.

Only Hendricks and Davies made all 32 starts, but both posted the worst seasons of their careers as the Cubs lost 91 games. The rotation ranked 26th overall with a 5.27 team ERA, easily the worst performance since the Cubs took off in 2015. A power pitching game isn’t strictly necessary to field a competitive squad, but the Cubs do need something more.

They’ve already made strides, putting together a less gimmicky rotation than last year, scooping Wade Miley off the waiver wire and signing one of the top free agent arms in Marcus Stroman.

On the offensive end, the speculation continues that they might make a bid for Carlos Correa. If not, the Cubs would roll out a starting middle infield of Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal. While the young pair is promising, one could also argue that they represent the hitter version of last year’s rotation gambit. While the rest of the baseball world hunts dingers, a Hoerner/Madrigal combo boasts turn-of-the-century talent – and not this century.

Hoerner has hit three home runs in 378 career plate appearances, while Madrigal has two over 324 plate appearances. Steamer suggests a whopping 14 combined home runs between the two of them if given regular playing time. Home runs aren’t everything, so we can check their isolated power: Madrigal owns a .089 ISO and Hoerner a .078 ISO. Where .167 ISO is league-average, Nico and Nick are decidedly punch-less. Granted, neither has played even a full season in the Majors, so their numbers must be taken with a grain of salt, but neither has shown much power in the minor leagues either.

Signing of Correa or Trevor Story changes the calculus, but either way, the Cubs expect Hoerner and Madrigal to be regular cogs in the lineup. There’s upside there for Chicago, but whether it’s enough to charge this new era of Cubs baseball remains to be seen. The Cubs have long had a strikeout problem from a team perspective, and getting 500+ at-bats from Hoerner and Madrigal would definitely see more balls put in play. Neither walks a ton, however, so there’s heavy lifting to do in other parts of the lineup, as well as for manager David Ross in putting together a lineup with two contact-first bats who don’t walk or hit for power. (As a counterpoint, Hoerner posted a 10.0 walk rate in 2021, which is better than the league-average rate of 8.7 percent, and a 9.5 percent walk rate the year before.)

Of course, the Cubs don’t like Madrigal and Hoerner because of what they don’t do.

Both are regarded as strong defenders, making them necessary supports for the new-look rotation. Stroman and Miley finished in the top 10 among qualified pitchers for groundball rate, and though Hendricks’ 43.1 percent groundball rate wasn’t as high as many years, he still finished 20th in the Majors by that metric. Infield defense will have to be a plus for the Cubs new rotation to succeed, and their young, contact-oriented duo will be key.

For that to work, however, their infield duo needs to be on the field, and both have struggled in that regard. More than a lack of power, poor health will doom the potential of the Nico and Nick show.

If they do stay healthy, they are the beginning of a movement underway in Chicago. We can even add first baseman Frank Schwindel to the list of Cubs infielders who excel at making contact. Of course, Patrick Wisdom strikes out enough for the whole infield (40.8 percent strikeout rate over 375 plate appearances in 2021). That certainly helped land the Cubs the highest strikeout rate in baseball last season at 26.7 percent. They finished 27th-ranked in 2020.

Strikeouts are a death knell for an offense, killing momentum and vaporizing the potential favor of BABIP good luck. It’s not “the answer,” but it’s certainly a piece of what could be a winning strategy. Put the ball in play and good things can happen. And believe it or not, the Cubs’ brass still wants good things to happen for this ballclub. The peak era Cubs boasted big-time power, so they could weather higher strikeout rates, but that team is gone, and this team is still forming its identity.

The Cubs tried putting together a pitching staff that didn’t strike anybody out, so it’s only natural that when that failed, they should try an offense that puts the ball in play. After all, they know it works because they’ve seen it work. With Nico and Nick leading the way, if nothing else, these new Cubs should put the ball in play, just to give themselves a chance.

NL Central Notes: Brewers, Mejia, Madrigal, Pirates, Newman

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A few weeks before the lockout, the Brewers acquired right-hander J.C. Mejía from the Guardians in exchange for cash considerations or a player to be named later. The 25-year-old had a tough rookie season in Cleveland, working to an 8.25 ERA/4.75 SIERA over 52 1/3 innings. He started 11 of his 17 appearances, holding down a rotation role for around two months while Cleveland dealt with concurrent injuries to Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale. Those lackluster results led to Mejía being designated for assignment after the season.

As part of a broader preview of the Brewers bullpen options, Will Sammon of the Athletic writes that the team would prefer to keep Mejía in a relief role moving forward. As Sammon points out, the righty did fare much better in his six relief appearances with Cleveland than he did as a starter last year. That’s an incredibly small sample on which to draw, but the Brewers’ strong rotation depth could afford them the opportunity to deploy Mejía in shorter stints. In 2021, he was rocked by left-handed batters (.328/.397/.656 in 137 plate appearances) but held his own against righties (.227/.327/.375 over 101 plate appearances). A bullpen role would give manager Craig Counsell some flexibility to shield Mejía from opposing clubs’ top lefty hitters.

More out of the division:

  • The ongoing lockout prevents players on a 40-man roster from having any sort of contact with club personnel. That’s not an ideal situation for anyone involved, but it could prove particularly challenging for players recuperating from major injuries but barred from speaking with team medical staffs. One such player, Cubs infielder Nick Madrigal, speaks with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic about his ongoing recovery from the season-ending right hamstring tear he suffered in June. The 24-year-old says he’s progressed to sprinting of late but hasn’t been able to directly correspond with the team over the past five-plus weeks. Instead, he’s rehabbed at an independent facility (Scottsdale-based Helix Human Performance), where his trainers have been tasked with updating the Cubs on his status and relaying back recommendations from the team’s medical and conditioning departments. Injured players having to rely on independent “middlemen” to keep teams abreast of their progress is one of the quieter ways in which the lockout is impacting typical offseason business.
  • Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic opines that the Pirates are likely to make shortstop Kevin Newman available on the trade market coming out of the transactions freeze. That’s little surprise, given that the rebuilding Bucs are probably open to offers for everyone on the roster, save perhaps Bryan Reynolds or Ke’Bryan Hayes. Yet it remains to be seen if Newman would draw enough interest to make a trade worthwhile for a Pittsburgh club with very little certainty in the middle infield. The right-handed hitter is coming off a poor offensive showing, with his .226/.265/.309 mark checking in 46 percentage points below the league average by measure of wRC+. No other player who tallied 500+ plate appearances did less damage at the plate, although the mere fact that Newman commanded that level of playing time speaks to his contributions on the other side of the ball. Public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average were fond of his glovework, and he was a Gold Glove finalist at shortstop. Coupled with a modest $1.95MM salary, perhaps Newman could attract interest from teams like the Yankees or Twins seeking a stopgap pickup at the position, but his lack of productivity at the plate suggests he’s probably better suited for a utility role with a hopeful contender.

Central Notes: Kimbrel, White Sox, Cubs, Donaldson, Boyd, Warren, File

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White Sox GM Rick Hahn and Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer began trade discussions on July 9, ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers reports, and it wasn’t until July 20 that the two sides reconnected for what became more intensive talks that led to a pair of major trades.  In separate deals, the Sox acquired Ryan Tepera on July 29 and then a deadline-day blockbuster that saw Craig Kimbrel head to the south side of Chicago.

Nick Madrigal emerged as the top piece in the Kimbrel deal, though it wasn’t until the day of the trade that the White Sox also added right-hander Codi Heuer to make it a two-player package.  That was enough to put the Sox ahead of a competitive market, and in Kimbrel, the team landed a player that Hahn and executive VP Ken Williams had both prioritized as a key acquisition to bolster the bullpen.

More on both the AL and NL Central divisions…

  • Josh Donaldson continues to be bothered by soreness in his right hamstring, and he didn’t see any action for the second consecutive game.  Over the Twins’ last 10 games, Donaldson has started twice and come off the bench three times, and manager Rocco Baldelli said the club is “still going to wait and see” if Donaldson can avoid the injured list.  “JD is still a little sore and we are still working our way through, just figuring out a timeline as far as when he’ll be able to return,” Baldelli told Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press and other reporters.
  • Matthew Boyd threw a live batting practice session at the Tigers’ Spring Training facility in Lakeland, manager A.J. Hinch told MLB.com’s Jason Beck and other reporters.  Boyd hasn’t pitched since June 14 due to a triceps issue, so a move to the 60-day injured list could be in the works should Detroit require some 40-man roster space in the near future.  Boyd’s BP session does represent some progress, and a proper minor league rehab assignment could follow provided Boyd doesn’t hit any setbacks.  The left-hander was off to a solid start to the 2021 season, posting a 3.44 ERA over his first 70 2/3 innings.
  • Reds manager David Bell provided an update on Art Warren, telling reporters (including The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale) that Warren will require roughly another month to recover from a left oblique strain.  The rookie right-hander has already missed about four weeks due to the injury, which interrupted a strong beginning to Warren’s first season in Cincinnati.  Warren struck out 36.2% of opposing batters while posting a 1.88 ERA over 14 1/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen.
  • The Brewers announced that right-hander Dylan File has been activated off the 60-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A Nashville.  File underwent elbow surgery in February and has yet to pitch this season, apart from some minor league rehab outings.  Considering that the Brewers are dealing with several bullpen absences due to injuries and a COVID-19 outbreak, it might not be out of the question that the 25-year-old File is called up to make his MLB debut before the 2021 season is through.
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