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Reaction & Analysis To The Marcus Stroman Trade

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It was widely assumed that the Blue Jays were going to trade Marcus Stroman before the deadline, and many rumors suggested that he could eventually wind up in New York.  Exactly where in the Big Apple Stroman landed, however, ended up being the surprise, as it was the Mets (they of the 55-60 record and the six-game deficit in the NL wild card standings) who landed the right-hander, rather than the AL-leading Yankees.  The Mets acquired Stroman from the Jays for Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson, two of the Amazins’ top pitching prospects.

Today’s stunner of a deal has already led to quite a bit of reaction and speculation about what moves could come next.  The highlights…

  • The Mets have “hijacked the [pitching] market” with the trade, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan tweets.  The Mets’ plan is to keep Stroman, and “the likelihood is strong they deal at least one of” Noah Syndergaard or Zack Wheeler.  Reports from earlier this week suggested that New York could try to sign Wheeler, a pending free agent, to a contract extension, though Passan feels a long-term deal with Wheeler is “increasingly unlikely.”
  • The Padres have been heavily linked to Syndergaard since the offseason, though USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that San Diego is “not optimistic” about landing the righty, since the Mets’ trade demands for Syndergaard are so high.  ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweeted earlier today that Manuel Margot had been discussed as part of the Mets/Padres talks.
  • Seth Lugo is another Mets pitcher “gaining late interest” in trade talks, the New York Daily News’ Deesha Thosar reports (Twitter link).  Lugo has been the Amazins’ best reliever this season, posting a 2.77 ERA, 11.94 K/9, and 5.15 K/BB rate over 52 innings.  Lugo is under control through the 2022 season, so he’d cost a hefty price in a trade, and one wonders if the Mets would even consider moving such a relatively inexpensive long-term asset since they’re planning to contend next year.  (Plus, Lugo becomes even more valuable to the pen if the Mets were to deal Edwin Diaz.)
  • Chris Hemsw….er, that is, Syndergaard himself poked fun at the trade speculation in a tweet of his own.
  • Several of The Athletic’s baseball writers (subscription required) joined forces for a roundtable discussion about the Stroman trade, with Jayson Stark perhaps summing things up with this comment that “Nobody can confuse an entire industry like the Mets.”  Multiple writers pointed out that the Mets’ poor infield defense doesn’t suit Stroman’s grounder-heavy attack.  If Stroman is the first step to flipping Syndergaard, it’s still an odd tactic for a team in win-now mode — as Tim Britton puts it, “New York is replacing [Syndergaard] in 2020 with someone [Stroman] older, with less team control, and whose track record is not quite as good.”  From the Blue Jays’ perspective, Kaitlyn McGrath notes that adding Kay and Woods Richardson meets Toronto’s desire for pitching depth, given the relative lack of young arms in the system.
  • Today’s deal ends Stroman’s often-controversial tenure with the Jays, as the Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm chronicles the multiple instances when the “fractured relationship” between Stroman and the Jays become public.  While a trade may have always been inevitable given the Blue Jays’ rebuild, “bad blood on both sides is one reason why a team desperate for pitching opted to trade one of its most talented arms,” Chisholm writes.
  • Stroman (via his Twitter account) did leave with grateful words for fans in Toronto and Canada, while also expressing excitement at returning to play for his hometown team.

Astros Reluctant To Deal Kyle Tucker For Noah Syndergaard

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Houston has been involved in this week’s Noah Syndergaard rumor extravaganza, but at last check, the Astros were said to be “pessimistic” about acquiring him. It turns out the team has “backed off” in its pursuit of Syndergaard partly because of a hesitance to trade high-end outfield prospect Kyle Tucker, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required).

Now 22, Tucker has been considered one of the game’s premier prospects since the Astros drafted him fifth overall in 2015. Baseball America (subscription required) ranked him as the game’s 12th-best farmhand in its most recent update, while ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription) placed him 19th. Tucker’s lone taste of major league action last year went horribly – he hit .141/.236/.203 in 72 homer-less plate appearances – but Law explains there’s little cause for panic. At the same time, though, BA and Law each suggest he may be a candidate for a change of scenery.

There is no immediate opening for Tucker in Houston, which has Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick as its primary corner outfielders, superlative rookie Yordan Alvarez at designated hitter and Yuli Gurriel at first base (where Tucker has been getting work of late). Nevertheless, indications are that Tucker’s an Astro to stay. Two weeks ago, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (subscription) wrote that “it would be a major upset” to see the Astros ship him out for a starting pitcher by Wednesday’s deadline. General manager Jeff Luhnow explained to Kaplan at the time that the Astros still regard Tucker as a cornerstone in the making.

Although he stopped short of calling Tucker “untouchable,” Luhnow noted, “I see Tucker as a part of this team going forward.” He added that “it would be very difficult for us to move one of the top prospects in the game who is just starting his career and is still young and looks like he’s going to have a lot of upside.”

Tucker, for what it’s worth, has slashed .261/.344/.558 with 26 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 403 Triple-A plate appearances this year. Those look like exceptional numbers on paper, but Tucker’s output has only been 10 percent better than average in the offensive gantlet known as the Pacific Coast League, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. Tucker was an incredible 55 percent superior to the league mean when he hit .332/.400/.590 with 24 HRs and 20 steals in 465 PA during his first try at the Triple-A level in 2018. He has since upped his strikeout rate from 18.1 percent to 24.1.

Despite his downturn in production this year, doubters in Tucker’s long-term potential are few and far between. And if the Astros don’t want to move Tucker for Syndergaard, arguably the most valuable starter on the trade market, then it stands to reason he’s not going anywhere.

A’s Interested In Syndergaard, Wheeler

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At 59-47, the A’s sit right in the thick of a crowded AL Wild Card race. They already signaled their willingness to upgrade the 2019 roster by bolstering their bullpen, but the team is at least considering much bigger targets than Jake Diekman. Per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, the club has made inquiries on Mets’ starters Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler. Slusser notes that the A’s have also reached out to the Tigers to inquire about Shane Greene.

The trade candidacies of all three hurlers have been discussed ad nauseum in recent days. Syndergaard’s is the most fascinating of the trio, as we’ve heard conflicting reports on how determined the New York front office is to move him and head-scratching ideas of a three-team trade that would net the Mets Marcus Stroman, with the Wilpons’ questionable willingness to approve any Thor deal lurking in the background. It’s clear the fireballer would have a broad market if the Mets decide to make him available. While his 4.33 ERA this season is higher than average, his peripherals paint the picture of at least a solid mid-rotation starter. On top of that, Syndergaard comes with two and a half years of team control, a pre-2019 track record of dominance and still-overpowering stuff.

The cases of Wheeler and Greene are more straightforward. Wheeler’s a pending free agent on a non-contending club, so it’s no surprise to see his name being bandied about. While we’ve heard some speculation the Mets could pursue a Wheeler extension in hopes of contending in 2020, he still looks to be one of the more likely trade candidates in baseball. After all, even if the Mets do flip Wheeler, there’s no reason to believe they couldn’t reengage with his representatives on a long-term deal after he hits free agency.

Wheeler would immediately vault to the front of another patchwork A’s rotation, potentially giving them an arm they’d feel comfortable deploying in the AL Wild Card game if they secure a spot. On the other hand, it’s arguable the club should pursue a more moderate starting pitching upgrade, rather than pushing in for perhaps the game’s top rental trade candidate when any hope of winning the division has all but evaporated.

The bullpen doesn’t stand out as a particular area of weakness for Oakland, especially after yesterday’s acquisition of Diekman. A’s relievers rank in the top five in park-adjusted ERA and FIP, making it one of the game’s strongest units. That said, stockpiling bullpen depth could be an alternative to paying a premium for a starter, and it’s worth noting the club bullpened its way through last season’s Wild Card game, which they may be inclined to try again if they get there. (Of course, they lost that game, but one loss doesn’t mean the front office should or will abandon the strategy). Greene’s 1.22 ERA in 2019 is not sustainable, but he’s having a good season no matter which metric you examine and comes with an additional year of team control via arbitration. Nearly every contender figures to check in on the top relievers on the trade market, so it’s unsurprising to hear Oakland continuing to poke around on that market.

Oakland’s top-heavy farm system could make a Wheeler or Greene trade a bit more complicated than would appear at first glance. While any Syndergaard trade would presumably include one of A.J. Puk, Jesus Luzardo, or Sean Murphy, those names would almost certainly be off the table in any trade for a rental or non-elite reliever. To acquire Wheeler or Greene, the A’s would seemingly need to package lower-tier prospects of interest to the Mets or Tigers, respectively, which could make finding a centerpiece of a deal challenging. That’s not to say the A’s couldn’t meet the asking price on either player- they certainly could- but swinging a deal would likely involve multiple low-level pieces not currently among the game’s top 100 prospects.

Mets Considering Packaging Of Zack Wheeler, Edwin Diaz

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In what one must imagine is an extremely hectic organizational war room, front office employees for the Mets are mulling the packaging of Zack Wheeler and Edwin Diaz in a potential trade, according to a report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post (link).

For a club that is seven games under .500, the Mets–for all of the criticism they’ve received this year–are a team still laden with desirable players. According to Sherman, Mets officials have indicated that as many as 16 teams are currently “serious” about acquisitions involving Wheeler, Diaz, and/or Noah Syndergaard, and employees of rival clubs have informed the reporter that all three are expected to be moved before the July 31st trade deadline.

While an exit may be imminent for the recently recuperated Wheeler and the flamethrowing Diaz, the merit of packaging the two together is, at first glance, dubious. For one thing, with such a large number of clubs involved in the postseason running, it is hard to imagine that either Wheeler or Diaz could not, on their own, net at least a top-30 prospect or two. Secondly, we often see clubs package players as a means of jettisoning undesirable contracts, as was the case with Diaz’ arrival in New York. However, neither Wheeler nor Diaz are attached to burdensome contracts, and one could argue that a trade return on either player would be best maximized in isolated dealings with rival clubs, wherein their individual asset values could be more easily agreed upon.

While it is true that Wheeler’s ho-hum results and impending free agency limit his appeal, his lack of a long-term deal could also be seen as a limitation of risk–if he doesn’t perform well down the stretch, an acquiring club can simply walk away in the offseason. With Diaz, one has to respect that a great deal of his 4.81 ERA is allowable, partly, to a sky-high .407 BABIP. He only enters arbitration next year for the first time, which, despite his 2019 struggles, should make him the more desirable of these two players–this is the same player, after all, that was supposed to provide solace in dealing with the back portion of Robinson Cano’s monstrous $240MM contract. Diaz’ inclusion in yet another package deal, wherein his value is somewhat harder to determine, may make Mets fans feel justifiably queasy.

Meanwhile, in a piece of Mets reportage which runs somewhat contrary to this Sherman piece, Newsday’s Tim Healey relays that his sources within the New York organization are indicating that they fully expect to retain Syndergaard past the deadline (link). The report is relatively sparse on details, but it does suggest–especially when paired with this Wheeler/Diaz news–that the club is indeed more focused on trade permutations involving those latter players.

Latest On Marcus Stroman

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The Dodgers, according to an interesting piece of scuttlebutt from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, are “considering” adding a starting pitcher via the trade market, and sources have indicated that Marcus Stroman is among their leading targets. According to this report, the team would transfer a current starter to the bullpen if they acquired someone of Stroman’s ilk, thereby circumventing the trade market’s lack of high-impact relief options.

However, the Dodgers may not be able to get their hands on the diminutive righty–at least not if the Astros have anything to say about the matter. According to a separate tweet from Rosenthal, the Astros are “mounting a push” for a Stroman acquisition. Their eagerness toward such a move is said to be motivated, in part, by a reluctance to meet New York’s asking price for Noah Syndergaard.

At this point, rehashing the relative merits of Stroman seems like a bit of a Sisyphean task: we know that the Toronto-grown pitcher is enjoying a nice 2019 season (3.52 FIP in 124.2 innings); we know, also, that he is rebounding from a somewhat fluky run of poor results in 2018 (5.54 ERA vs. 3.91 FIP in 102.1 innings last year); and, alas, we understand that he is earning an eminently affordable sum of $7.4MM this year, with a fourth and final year of arbitration control remaining in 2020.

What is more germane to the conversation here is the insight offered into the trade deadline strategy of two respectively powerful clubs. The Dodgers, an organization never unwilling to stockpile big league depth, would add Stroman to a largely effective mix of pitchers; on the year, their starters have logged a 4.02 ERA–good enough for ninth in the bigs in this homer-happy 2019. However, adding a durable arm like Stroman, as noted above, would allow them to circuitously improve their bullpen. Kenta Maeda, for one, was an interesting option out of the bullpen last year and could shift there once more; alternatively, the Dodgers could choose to simply rest the powerful-yet-young right arm of one Walker Buehler in a gear-up for the postseason. Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Stroman, and Ross Stripling would certainly make for an extremely intimidating playoff staff.

The Astros, meanwhile, have been involved in rotation-centric trade rumors for quite some time, despite their staff’s fourth-ranked 3.79 collective ERA. This news, as much as anything, gives further credence to the idea that New York is mounting sky-high demands for Syndergaard, and that teams like Houston may begin shifting attention to Stroman as a more cost-friendly alternative. Adding Stroman would obviously be a coup for any postseason-seeking squad, and one has to wonder if the Astros’ strong interest isn’t spurred partly by an interest in 2020. With Gerrit Cole looming on the precipice of free agency, the club may be looking to shore up its potential for this year and beyond.

Mets Interested In Marcus Stroman, “Exploring” Noah Syndergaard Deal With Padres

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4:25 pm: The Padres have “not shown much desire” to move Urias in any deal, per The Athletic’s Dennis Lin.

2:56 pm: The Mets, who currently sit in no-man’s land in a stacked-up NL Wild Card picture, are “exploring” a number of trade scenarios, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, one of which includes sending righty Noah Syndergaard to the Padres and using a portion of the loot to pursue Toronto’s Marcus Stroman.

It’s a bizarre scenario for New York, which still boasts a respectable blue-chip group after shipping top prospects Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn to Seattle in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade. A further depletion of the team’s farm, given its current trajectory, would obviously be unsound, but swapping Syndergaard for Stroman with a marginal gain in prospect capital wouldn’t seem to make much sense either. Stroman, of course, is under control (through 2020) for a season fewer than is Thor, and, despite a recent output that would suggest otherwise, isn’t on level with the 26-year-old ace, whose 2.85 FIP is tied for 6th best among all MLB hurlers since his debut in 2015.

Simply dangling Syndergaard for the choicest return – one that’d almost surely include an MLB-ready piece the club could plug right in to its 25-man – would be the blueprint for most teams, especially ones whose near-term designs on contending had gone awry. Perhaps the club would intend to flip Stroman after the season ends, or even extend him, but his value’s near-zenith at current and an offseason trade wouldn’t figure to net a return commensurate with the departing package this July.

It’s certainly true that the Padres have an embarrassment of riches with which to play, and the headlining piece in the swap with New York – Luis Patiño, perhaps, or the polarizing Luis Urias (9th overall, per Baseball Prospectus, though has struggled big-time in a brief MLB sample thus far) – could anchor the club’s lineup or rotation for years to come, though there isn’t a clear-cut available superstar in the bunch (assuming that lefty MacKenzie Gore is off the table). New York would be selling low on a controllable hurler who’s a decent bet to return to ace form, and swapping him to a team who doesn’t necessarily possess the MLB-ready stud the team seems to covet.

For the Padres, the buy-low opportunity may be too much to pass up, even though the team’s position in the playoff picture – currently 7 GB of the second Wild Card spot – wouldn’t align with a big-fish hook. Assuming the Mets require the full ticket price on Syndergaard, San Diego will be paying a premium for two additional months of the hurler, time in which the club will likely be focused primarily on player development. Still, it may be now-or-never for the Pads, who likely wouldn’t have a chance to acquire Thor if he’s shipped to a team with its eyes on long-term prizes.

Latest On Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler

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10:35pm: It isn’t definite the Mets will trade Syndergaard, per reports from Anthony DiComo of MLB.com and Anthony Rieber of Newsday, though Rieber adds the club’s “working hard” to move him. The Astros are “pessimistic” about their chances of acquiring Syndergaard, DiComo writes. Meanwhile, it “doesn’t sound like” the Mets and Twins have made headway toward a deal, Martino tweets.

3:58pm: Mets righty Noah Syndergaard has emerged as the perhaps the most talked-about name on the trade market, and his name once again figures to dominate headlines — much as it did in the offseason. Meanwhile, scouts will be watching closely as fellow starter Zack Wheeler takes the hill tonight for his lone pre-deadline showcase start. Here’s the latest on both hurlers …

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Mets are seeking an MLB-ready starter who can step right into the rotation in place of Syndergaard, then some additional high-end prospects after that. The pitcher in question needn’t technically be the headliner in the deal, but presumably the Mets are eyeing a controllable (pre-arbitration) starter as well as premier minor leaguers beyond that point.

That aligns with recent reports from SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter links), who suggests that the Mets view the Padres, Braves, Dodgers, Rays and Yankees as the best on-paper fits in a deal. The Padres and Braves, in particular, are rich with MLB-ready pitchers in the upper minors, and Sherman lists that pair of organizations as the two that the Mets feel are best-positioned to work out a deal.

Notably, Sherman calls the Astros the “most aggressive” pursuer of Syndergaard, but Houston has seen its top pitching prospects take a step back in 2019. Forrest Whitley (shoulder fatigue) has barely pitched in 2019. Corbin Martin underwent Tommy John surgery. Martino suggests that neither the Astros nor Twins are viewed as prime trade partners — likely because other interested parties have better MLB-ready arms to offer. It was reported this morning that the Twins and Mets have discussed Syndergaard, with the Mets showing particular interest in shortstop Royce Lewis and outfielder Alex Kirilloff.

Looking at the teams the Mets apparently believe to be fits, it’s a bit of an eyebrow-raiser to see the Yankees and Braves listed. The Yankees and Mets haven’t lined up on a trade in more than a decade, and the frequent reports out of New York portraying the contempt that Mets owner Fred Wilpon has toward the Yankees make a deal of this nature seem decidedly unlikely. Meanwhile, trading Syndergaard to a division rival would be difficult for Mets fans to stomach, particularly given that he’s controlled through the 2021 season.

Whether the Houston organization can put together a compelling package for Syndergaard, they’ll have other things to talk about with the Mets front office. The ’Stros are “one of many” teams that have interest in Wheeler, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Martino tweets that the Yankees also remain interested in Wheeler and will be watching intently this evening.

Twins, Mets Have Discussed Noah Syndergaard

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The Twins and Mets have had discussions surrounding Noah Syndergaard since the Mets have made the right-hander available, reports La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Minnesota has been linked to virtually every arm on the trade market — starter and reliever alike — so their inclusion in the Syndergaard bidding hardly comes as a shock. Nor is it surprising that Neal indicates that the Mets have focused in on top prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff as potential headliners in a deal.

Lewis, 20, was the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2017, and the shortstop entered the season ranked as a consensus top 10 prospect in all of baseball. He’s scuffled a bit in his first exposure to Class-A Advanced, hitting .243/.295/.384 through 410 plate appearances. Lewis, though, is still rather young for the Florida State League and is still generally regarded as a premier prospect, even if there’s a bit more of a divide on his status at the moment. Baseball America dipped Lewis to No. 21 on its latest update of the game’s top 100 minor leaguers, while Lewis resides at No. 2 over on Fangraphs’ latest update.

Kirilloff, 21, also entered the season regarded as one of the game’s 20 best prospects. He hasn’t replicated last season’s dominant numbers between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, but the outfielder has turned in a .284/.351/.403 slash in 261 plate appearances against older, more experienced competition with Double-A Pensacola.

The Twins have reportedly been loath to part with either Lewis or Kirilloff — the same has been true of top pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol — although Syndergaard brings a different level of appeal to the table than most other arms known to be available. He’s controlled through the 2021 season (a year longer than Marcus Stroman or Mike Minor), has multiple dominant seasons on his resume (unlike Matthew Boyd), is still in arbitration as opposed to on a guaranteed contract (unlike Zack Greinke) and, despite a lackluster ERA on the season, offers some of the best raw stuff of any pitcher in baseball.

Syndergaard still averages 97.7 mph on his heater with a slider he can throw in the low 90s, and every club in baseball surely has its own ideas about how to restore his bottom-line results to their previous levels, which more closely aligned with his premium arsenal. The Twins, in particular, have added incentive to pursue controllable starters; each of Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda are free agents this winter.

Latest On Noah Syndergaard, Edwin Diaz

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Mets starter Noah Syndergaard and closer Edwin Diaz have come up as potential trade candidates in advance of the July 31 deadline, but general manager Brodie Van Wagenen may have trouble dealing either. Van Wagenen’s difficulty wouldn’t necessarily stem from trying to find a trade partner, but from attempting to sell Mets ownership on a return for one or both right-handers. Van Wagenen doesn’t even want to present a possible Syndergaard or Diaz trade to owners Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon unless he’s confident they’ll sign off on it, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

While the Mets are reportedly “fully intent” on trading Syndergaard, talks haven’t grown so serious that Van Wagenen has gone to the Wilpons yet, per Sherman, who adds moving Syndergaard or Diaz wouldn’t signify the beginning of a rebuild. Instead, the Mets could part with one or both with the intention of immediately improving their roster – one that has stumbled to a 47-55 record in 2019.

As a rookie GM, Van Wagenen inherited Syndergaard – a member of the organization since 2013 – but he’s just a few months from swinging a blockbuster trade that brought Diaz to New York. The goal in acquiring Diaz and expensive second baseman Robinson Cano from the Mariners last offseason was to push the Mets toward contention this year. But the deal hasn’t worked out at all for the Mets, who’ve gotten disappointing contributions from Diaz and Cano and have watched Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn – the top two prospects they gave up – impress with their new organization. The Mets are leery of risking similar embarrassment now in selling Syndergaard or Diaz, Sherman suggests.

Diaz hasn’t been nearly the pitcher he was a year ago, when he turned in a 1.96 ERA with 15.22 K/9, 2.09 BB/9 and an eye-popping 57 saves in 73 1/3 innings, but he remains valuable. Although Diaz has recorded a 4.81 ERA over 39 1/3 innings, a 3.50 FIP with 13.96 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and 97 mph velocity accompany that bloated figure. He’s also young (25), on a near-minimum salary this season and under control via arbitration for the next three years. It’s understandable the Mets would need a huge return to move him, though their hope of acquiring a comparable or better package for Diaz than they originally gave up for him is likely a pipe dream.

Meantime, it could be an even bigger challenge for Van Wagenen to talk the Wilpons into giving their blessing to a Syndergaard deal. There’s skepticism Fred Wilpon, in particular, wouldn’t “appreciate the quality” of a return for Syndergaard, writes Sherman. He points to what the Rays received last summer for Chris Archer (whom the Pirates got for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz) as a possible comparable for Syndergaard. However, even a valuable package along those lines may not be enough to convince the Wilpons that it would be OK for Van Wagenen to move the coveted 26-year-old hurler.

Mets “Fully Intent” On Trading Syndergaard, Considering Extending Wheeler

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4:03pm: The Mets “want to move” Syndergaard in a trade, a rival evaluator tells ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link).  The feeling amongst many outside evaluators is that the Mets are “fully intent” on dealing Syndergaard.  As to The Athletic’s Marc Carig hears from a rival executive, the asking price on Syndergaard is something in the range of a top-30 prospect “and a couple of other solid pieces.”

3:22pm: Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler have been often mentioned as trade candidates this summer, with Wheeler considered the likelier of the two to depart since he is a free agent after the season.  According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link), however, the Mets are also exploring a scenario that would see them sign Wheeler to an extension and deal Syndergaard before the July 31 trade deadline.

The upside of this strategy is obvious.  Wheeler’s trade value is currently limited due to his rental player status, and the fact that he isn’t scheduled to come off the injured list until Friday, due to a particularly ill-timed shoulder impingement.  When healthy, though, Wheeler has shown flashes of being a front-of-the-rotation pitcher, particularly during his impressive 2018 season.  In extending Wheeler, the Mets would be able to keep one solid arm in their rotation over the longer term, which would then free them up to make a bigger deadline score now by moving Syndergaard, whose extra years of control and higher talent ceiling have made him an attractive commodity to other teams.

It isn’t known whether the Mets have reached out to Wheeler’s representatives at Jet Sports Management about extension talks, or if Wheeler has any interest in even signing such a deal to remain in Queens rather than testing the open market this winter.  Wheeler has a 4.69 ERA over 119 innings this season, though with some solid advanced metrics and ERA predictors (3.66 FIP, 3.85 xFIP, 4.01 SIERA) that suggest he should be pitching better than his actual ERA suggests.  On the down side, Wheeler is allowing significant more hard contact than he did in 2018, and a big spike in homer rate (13.7% in 2019 as compared to 8.1% last season) can be seen as the culprit for that inflated ERA.

It all makes for a good but not great platform season for Wheeler.  Depending on how he pitches the rest of the way this year, he’ll be heading into free agency without the benefit of a real ace-level season, he turns 30 next May, and he’ll have a qualifying offer hanging over his head.  With all of these factors in mind, Wheeler and his reps could prefer the security of an extension (if the price is right, of course) rather than testing what has become an increasingly fraught free agent market over the last couple of years.

Negotiating an extension with Wheeler, of course, would add an extra layer of complications to the Mets’ plans in the final week before the deadline.  Naturally you’d think the club would want Wheeler locked up before dealing Syndergaard, though the Mets could also try to get the framework of a Syndergaard deal lined up in advance.

Still, it makes for an awful lot of moving parts within what would be a franchise-altering decision.  Syndergaard doesn’t turn 27 until next month and is controlled through the 2021 season via arbitration, and while the right-hander has been more solid than great this season, he has shown he is capable of being a frontline arm when at his peak.  The Yankees, Padres, Astros, Brewers, and Twins have all been linked to Syndergaard in rumors, and the Mets are known to be looking for a huge return if they did move the young righty.

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