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MLBTR Podcast: Alex Bregman, The Padres Add Players, And No Extension For Vlad Jr.

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • The Twins had a quiet offseason but projection systems have them winning the division. Are they the best team in the AL Central? (38:25)
  • Why did the Giants have a quiet offseason apart from Willy Adames and Justin Verlander? Was it ownership reluctance or Buster Posey’s conservative stance? (42:25)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Nolan Arenado Discusses Trade Rumors

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Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado arrived in camp with the Cardinals today and spoke to the media, including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, about an offseason where his name was one of the most frequently mentioned in the rumor mill and what’s in store for him as he heads into Spring Training with a club that actively sought to trade him throughout the winter. Speaking to reporters, Arenado made clear that his sole focus at this point is preparing for the coming season.

“I’m back and I’m ready to go play ball,” Arenado said, as relayed by Goold. “I’m a ballplayer, and I’m a Cardinal, until I’m told I’m not. You know what I mean? And that’s all there is to it. And I’ve got a lot of work to do. I’ve got to be a better ball player, and that’s what I’m focused on.”

While Arenado’s comments did not completely close the door on a trade, it’s become apparent that the Cardinals expect him to be their starting third baseman on Opening Day at this point. Goold notes that there’s currently no momentum towards a deal, and both Arenado and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak seem reasonably comfortable with the idea of the veteran third baseman sticking in St. Louis to start the year. While Mozeliak acknowledged throughout the offseason that trading Arenado was his top priority, his tone regarding the situation has shifted since the Red Sox landed Alex Bregman earlier this week, killing a potential deal between the sides that would have sent Arenado to Boston.

With the Red Sox now off the table as a potential suitor, Mozeliak suggested to reporters (including Goold) that while the door isn’t entirely closed on the possibility of Arenado being moved, he’s no longer seeking out potential trade partners and will instead wait to hear from any teams that might have interest in the eight-time All-Star. That’s a sensible call given that Arenado doesn’t seem motivated to expand the list of teams he would consider a trade to. The veteran indicated to reporters that he’s “not likely” to consider new destinations at this point, adding that he’s not interested in moving his family just for the sake of leaving St. Louis and only wants to leave for a team that’s closer to contending for a championship.

There’s plenty of teams that could be argued as closer to championship-caliber than the Cardinals, but Arenado’s list of teams he would approve a trade to includes five clubs or less according to Goold. Exactly which clubs are included in that list is unclear. The Astros were once thought to be on the list, but Arenado blocked a trade to Houston in December due to concerns regarding the club’s competitive direction in the aftermath of the Kyle Tucker trade. The Red Sox, Padres, and Dodgers are all widely acknowledged as clubs Arenado would likely approve a trade to, while the Yankees, Angels, Phillies, and Mets are among the other teams that have been rumored as potential options Arenado could approve.

None of those teams appear especially likely to make a push for Arenado at this point. The Red Sox closed the hole in their infield by adding Bregman, while the Dodgers, Mets, and Phillies all also have no room for an addition to their infield mixes as presently constructed. The Padres could plausibly add another infielder, but with Manny Machado entrenched at third base Arenado would be an imperfect fit. San Diego also doesn’t appear to have the budget space necessary to add a player like Arenado to the payroll, and the same could be said of the Yankees until and unless they can move veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman. The Angels, meanwhile, are much further from contention than the other clubs Arenado is reportedly interested in joining and recently signed Yoan Moncada to supplant highly-paid but oft-injured veteran Anthony Rendon at third base.

Mozeliak: Nolan Arenado Likely To Be With Cardinals On Opening Day

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Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak spoke to members of the media today, including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, saying that trade candidate Nolan Arenado is likely staying put. “I think the mindset right now is he’s likely going to be a part of our club at this point,” Mozeliak said. “I definitely feel like it’s a better chance than not” that he is the club’s Opening Day third baseman.

Given the events of recent weeks, that’s not terribly surprising. It was reported about a month ago that the club’s efforts to move Arenado had largely stalled, with the Red Sox being the best remaining landing spot, but even that fit had some problems.

The Sox are making a big investment in their infield, agreeing to a deal last night with Alex Bregman. He’s reportedly going to play second base, so he doesn’t on his own block Arenado from playing third at Fenway. However, the fit was already awkward with Rafael Devers at third. Moving Devers to first and then trading Triston Casas or Masataka Yoshida were scenarios that were bandied about this winter but they always seemed somewhat of a difficult tightrope to walk.

Those scenarios are technically still possible to imagine in a vacuum but the larger team context makes it harder to see. Bregman’s deal is reportedly for $120MM over three years, a $40MM average annual value. Deferreals reportedly drop the net present value closer to $31.9MM annually but it’s still a huge chunk of the payroll. Arenado’s deal still has roughly three years and $60MM to be paid out, when factoring in deferrals and some money being picked up by the Rockies.

Boston making a huge investment in their infield just to create roster problems was already a bit tough but is even tougher now with Bregman’s contract on the books. Chris Cotillo of MassLive today estimates the odds of Boston still being in on Arenado at “about 0.0%.”

In the larger context of the Cardinals’ offseason, it’s a very surprising place for them to be. By late September of last year, before the 2024 campaign had even fully ended, reports had emerged that the Cardinals were planning a shift in direction. 2025 was to be a sort of reset year, with the club focusing less on short-term contention and more on long-term player development. As part of this shift, Mozeliak would spent the 2025 still in his POBO title while Chaim Bloom focused on overhauling the club’s player development system, but with Bloom to replace Mozeliak at season’s end.

At that point, there was plenty of speculation that the Cards would make players available if they were expensive or nearing free agency. Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Steven Matz, Erick Fedde, Ryan Helsley and others seemed likely to be available.

Now, several months later, they are all still on the roster. Contreras and Gray quickly signalled that they were unwilling to waive their no-trade clauses while the club surprisingly didn’t seem to have much interest in moving Fedde or Helsley.

Arenado was reportedly more willing than Gray or Contreras to consider waiving his no-trade protection, but that didn’t mean he would approve any deal. There was some reporting that Arenado had a list of six teams that he would approve a trade to, though there was also some pushback that such a firm list existed and that Arenado’s preferences were more context-dependent.

He vetoed a deal to the Astros in December but reportedly wasn’t wholly opposed to going to Houston. Rather, he had some hesitation about the club’s direction after trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. Rather than wait around and see if he would change his mind, the Astros took the less-complicated route of signing Christian Walker to play first base. That effectively locked Isaac Paredes, acquired in the Tucker deal, into third base and made an Arenado deal far less likely.

While Arenado may not have had an ironclad team list, it seems his parameters will have to widen for anything to get done now. “I think it would have to open up a little bit more,” Mozeliak said of Arenado’s list of acceptable teams, per Jones. “Think we’ve exhausted the others.”

Goold reported yesterday that Mozeliak had contacted five clubs that appeared to fit Arenado’s preferences, including the Yankees, Red Sox, Padres and Dodgers. The Astros were presumably the fifth. Goold added that the Yankees wanted the Cards to eat more of Arenado’s contract than they were willing to do. The Dodgers have Max Muncy at third and never seemed particularly interested in making a change there. The Padres are working under significant financial constraints. The Sox are now out after adding Bregman.

Perhaps Arenado will change his mind and consider other options, given the circumstances. His priority appears to be winning and that seems unlikely in St. Louis this year with their reset plans. Reportedly, the Royals reached out to the Cardinals this winter but were turned away since the Cards didn’t think Arenado was willing to go there. Teams like the Tigers and Blue Jays reportedly pursued Bregman and might have some willingness to pivot to Arenado, though Arenado might not be willing to play for those clubs.

If Arenado does end up staying, it will leave the Cards with some playing time puzzles to figure out. Their thinking with an Arenado trade was to save some money but also to give more playing time to guys with uncertain futures. Nolan Gorman was going to get regular run at third base as he looks to bounce back from a tough season in 2024. With Arenado still around, he could get pushed back to second base. That could block Thomas Saggese and/or nudge Brendan Donovan into a utility role where he spends more time in the outfield, perhaps taking playing time from guys like Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II and others.

Perhaps there are some twists and turns up ahead but it’s been a very surprising winter for the Cardinals thus far, as an offseason that once likely to involve significant changes has resulted in very few. They haven’t yet signed a free agent to a major league deal and their only trade has been to acquire depth infielder Michael Helman from the Twins.

MLBTR Podcast: Pete Alonso’s Deal, And Potential Landing Spots For Bregman and Arenado

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • Pete Alonso re-signing with the Mets (1:45)
  • What’s next for the Blue Jays after not getting Alonso? (9:25)
  • Will the Mets and Alonso going to reunite again in the future or will this be it? (12:55)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • What teams could still sign Alex Bregman? (17:50)
  • Can the Cardinals trade Nolan Arenado to the Red Sox? (29:20)
  • Do the Orioles need an ace? (37:55)
  • What are the Marlins building right now? (39:30)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Cardinals, Red Sox Have Reportedly Had “Recent Communication” On Arenado

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The Nolan Arenado trade speculation has quieted in recent weeks. After the eight-time All-Star used his no-trade clause to quash a deal that would have sent him to Houston, the Cardinals have been unable to find a suitable match. St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said at last month’s Winter Warm-Up event that the Arenado saga remained the front office’s top priority. However, both Mozeliak and chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. stressed that dealing the third baseman was not an absolute necessity to get the team’s payroll to levels that ownership finds tolerable.

It’s now an open question whether the Cards will be able to line anything up. In an MLBTR poll last week, nearly two-thirds of respondents felt Arenado would begin the season in St. Louis. That won’t stop Mozeliak and the front office from continuing to explore possibilities. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reports that the Cards have “had recent communication” with the Red Sox regarding Arenado.

That doesn’t necessarily mean talks have gained any kind of traction. Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote in early January that efforts to move Arenado had stalled. Woo suggested at the time that Boston might up end being the only plausible suitor for an offseason trade. Those discussions have perhaps been held up by Alex Bregman’s lengthy free agent stay. Boston is one of a few teams known to be involved on Bregman, though they’re reportedly reluctant to go beyond four guaranteed years. Bregman has seemingly weighed multiple six-year offers, so the Sox appear an unlikely landing spot.

Arenado would be a more challenging roster fit. The Sox’s pursuit of Bregman was likely conditioned on the possibility of moving him to second base. Arenado has expressed openness to a position change to facilitate the right trade, but his third base defense is his primary selling point. It’s unlikely the Red Sox would consider bumping him to the keystone. They’d presumably instead move Rafael Devers off third base. Boston’s longtime third baseman doesn’t appear enthused about a possible position change.

A move would also probably require the Red Sox to bench or trade Masataka Yoshida. The Sox have not moved first baseman Triston Casas for starting pitching, as many speculated they might. Devers would be a superior designated hitter to Yoshida, though Boston may not be keen on relegating him to the bench when he’s under contract for another three seasons. Yoshida is owed $18MM annually on a deal that is well above market value. They’d need to eat the bulk of the contract to deal him for what would be a modest return.

Discussions between the Sox and Cardinals could theoretically involve Yoshida. Chaim Bloom, who will take over as president of baseball operations in St. Louis at the end of the season, was the top executive when the Red Sox signed Yoshida. At one point, Bloom believed strongly that his bat would translate against MLB pitching. Yoshida has been a good, not great, major league hitter. Even if Bloom still feels there’s untapped upside, the Cardinals are unlikely to eat a big portion of the contract. Their efforts to trade Arenado have been largely motivated by finances, recent comments from Mozeliak and DeWitt notwithstanding.

St. Louis owes Arenado $64MM over the next three seasons: $27MM this year, $22MM in 2026, and $15MM in ’27. The Rockies are paying an additional $5MM annually for the next two years. $6MM of the Cards’ obligations in 2025 and ’26 are deferred. Reports indicated the Astros were going to take all but $5MM or $15MM off the Cardinals’ hands had he approved the trade to Houston.

Poll: Will The Cardinals Be Able To Trade Nolan Arenado?

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One of the biggest storylines of the offseason has been the Cardinals’ to this point unsuccessful attempts at moving veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado. As the club scales back its payroll and focuses on youth, both the Cardinals and Arenado himself have expressed a desire to move on this winter. In theory, moving an eight-time All-Star who’s just two seasons removed from being an MVP finalist should not be an especially difficult task, but a confluence of factors has made things very complicated for St. Louis’s front office.

The most obvious limiting factor at play is Arenado’s hefty contract. The infielder is due $74MM over the next three seasons, and even with the Rockies poised to pitch in $10MM as a condition of the trade that sent him to St. Louis in the first place, it’s hard to imagine a number of smaller or even mid-market clubs being able to stomach the majority of that salary. Even for clubs who can afford to pay Arenado, it would be understandable if there was some level of pause about committing that much money to a hitter coming off a .272/.325/.394 slash line that was essentially league average (102 wRC+). Arenado’s glove is still enough to make him a roughly three-win player even with his diminished offensive numbers but the division rival Cubs’ difficulties in finding a trade partner when looking to move Cody Bellinger this winter show how depressed the market can become for a three-win player who’s making more than they would fetch on the open market.

Things are further complicated by Arenado’s no-trade clause, which he’s appeared to be very comfortable wielding in order to direct the Cardinals’ negotiation efforts towards clubs he wants to join. Arenado blocked a trade to the Astros in mid-December despite previous belief that he would approve a trade to Houston, in large part because he wanted to see how the club would fortify the roster after trading away Kyle Tucker. That decision to wait and see what was next for Houston backfired, as they pivoted towards signing Christian Walker in a move that likely closed the door on Arenado joining the Astros.

Since the deal with the Astros fell through, the market for Arenado’s services has been exceptionally quiet, with the Cardinals beginning to entertain the possibility that Arenado might be in camp for the start of Spring Training or even still be in the club’s starting lineup on Opening Day. The Yankees reportedly tried to convince the Cardinals to do a swap that would’ve sent Arenado to the Bronx and right-hander Marcus Stroman to the St. Louis, but the Cardinals dismissed that offer without even presenting it to Arenado due to a lack of interest in adding Stroman to the fold. It’s hardly a surprise that they wouldn’t want to take on Stroman and is $18.5MM salary for 2025, but that decision only serves to highlight the financial difficulties the Cardinals face in attempting to move their third baseman.

Even as a trade of Arenado has become less likely as the calendar has flipped to 2025, there are at least some reasons for optimism. Arenado has reportedly become more open-minded about what clubs he would approve a trade to in recent weeks, which could theoretically inspire renewed efforts from clubs like the Mariners, Royals, and Tigers who have some level of interest in him but initially believed that Arenado would block any trade they worked out with the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have indicated that they wouldn’t necessarily need to cut payroll elsewhere if Arenado remains with the club in 2025. It’s at least theoretically possible that’s simply a negotiation tactic, but if the Cardinals are truly not operating under a mandate to cut payroll to a specific level, then perhaps they’ll be more willing to chip in cash to help pay down Arenado’s salary or accept another underwater contract as part of the return.

One obvious catalyst that could spur Arenado talks back to the forefront of the hot stove would be Alex Bregman finding a new home in free agency. Bregman entered the winter ranked as the #3 free agent overall and the top available infielder according to MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, but he’s found a relatively quiet market to his point in the winter. The Red Sox, Tigers, Astros, Blue Jays, and Cubs are all known to be involved in Bregman’s market to this point on at least some level. While trading Arenado to a division rival like the Cubs is nearly impossible to imagine, the Astros have already moved on, and Toronto may not be competitive enough to satisfy the veteran. The interest is mutual in at least the case of the Red Sox, who currently figure to start Arenado’s longtime Rockies teammate Trevor Story at shortstop on a regular basis this year. If Bregman were to come to a decision, and especially one that saw him end up in Houston, Chicago, or Toronto, it’s easy to imagine Arenado’s market picking up more significantly.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out? Will Arenado be in another uniform before Opening Day? And if so, will a deal get done before he’s scheduled to report to the Cardinals for Spring Training on February 17? Have your say in the poll below:

DeWitt: Cardinals Would Not Need To Cut Spending Elsewhere If No Arenado Trade

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Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. spoke with reporters on Monday afternoon to conclude the organization’s Winter Warm-Up weekend. Unsurprisingly, he touched on the team’s biggest offseason storyline: the Nolan Arenado trade discussions.

Most notably, DeWitt said that the team wasn’t motivated to cut payroll in another area if they can’t line up an Arenado deal. “No, I don’t think so,” he replied when asked if a failure to trade the third baseman meant they needed to slash spending elsewhere (link via Katie Woo of The Athletic). President of baseball operations John Mozeliak made similar comments over the weekend, suggesting that ownership was supporting a higher payroll than the front office initially expected “because we haven’t been able to accomplish what we thought we would by now (on the trade market).”

Much of that is due to the no-trade rights of the Cards’ most expensive players. Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray each indicated they preferred to stay in St. Louis rather than waive their no-trade clauses. Arenado was more open to a trade in theory, though he nixed a deal to the Astros. That confirmed he’d be particular about his next destination if he were to move.

The Cardinals are on the hook for $64MM of the $74MM owed to Arenado over the next three seasons. The Rockies are responsible for $5MM annually over the next two years. A combined $12MM in salary over the next two seasons is deferred, reducing the Cardinals’ portion of the contract’s remaining net present value to around $60MM.

St. Louis has primarily focused on salary relief. The Astros were reportedly set to assume at least $45MM of the remaining money had Arenado not vetoed the trade. With Houston quickly moving on, talks have quieted over the past month. Mozeliak made clear over the weekend that the Cardinals are still trying to line up a trade that makes sense for everyone involved. That has been more challenging than the organization anticipated.

Nevertheless, there’s still a chance for a late-offseason deal. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that there are multiple teams that would be open to circling back on Arenado if the Cardinals are open to paying down a bigger portion of the contract. It remains to be seen whether St. Louis will eventually be willing to do that, but they’re generally downplaying the need to make trades to cut spending at this point. There’s also the matter of free agency delaying the trade market. Alex Bregman remains unsigned and there’s surely some overlap between the teams involved on the two players.

Goold adds that some teams have called the Cardinals to see whether they can talk Gray off his opposition to waiving the no-trade clause. There’s nothing to suggest the righty is reconsidering that stance, though there’s no harm for other teams in trying to change his mind. Gray is owed $65MM over the next two seasons on his backloaded three-year free agent deal. He turned in a 3.84 ERA over 28 starts during his first season with St. Louis.

John Mozeliak Discusses Arenado, Cardinals’ Offseason

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Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak met with reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) at the team’s Winter Warm-Up event today, and discussed several topics related to quiet St. Louis offseason.  In general, Mozeliak didn’t have much new to offer on the Nolan Arenado trade front, other than to say that “I think priority one, two and three is still Nolan” in terms of how dealing the third baseman is the clear focal point for the rest of the team’s winter plans.

Mozeliak has been open abut the team’s intentions of cutting payroll and giving more playing time to younger players in 2025, even if the PBO and other Cardinals’ officials have stopped short of officially considering next season a rebuilding year.  During the Winter Meetings, Mozeliak candidly said that “It’s my intention to try” and trade Arenado to aid in this process, and Arenado was tacitly on board with these endeavors, though Arenado ultimately has control over his own fate via his no-trade clause.

The eight-time All-Star already used this influence to reject a proposed deal in December that would’ve seen him dealt to the Astros, with Houston taking on — according to conflicting reports — at least $45MM and as much as $59MM of the $60MM still owed on Arenado’s contract.  (The full total is $74MM, but the Rockies are covering $10MM of that figure and the other $4MM is reduced due to deferrals.)  In the wake of that scuttled deal, the Astros moved on entirely by signing Christian Walker to address their corner infield needs, leaving St. Louis still in need of a trade partner.

Later reports suggested Arenado hadn’t entirely closed the door on joining the Astros, but just wanted more time to evaluate the situation considering that Houston had just dealt Kyle Tucker to the Cubs earlier that same week.  Mozeliak admitted today that he “was a little bit surprised” Arenado turned down the trade, and suggested that the Cardinals were hampered by the timing of the Tucker deal.  “It was almost more like order of operation.  Had we been a few days ahead of that, I think there would’ve been [a trade]….So yeah, things happen.” Mozeliak said.

In regards to the lack of other interest in Arenado, Mozeliak said “I would imagine the free agent market would be what’s slowing that down,” referencing the fact that Alex Bregman remains unsigned.  Some movement on the Arenado front could happen once Bregman chooses his next team, and Mozeliak said he hadn’t yet spoken with Arenado or his camp about possibly expanding the third baseman’s list of preferred trade destinations.

In fact, Mozeliak said he hadn’t directly spoken with Arenado for close to a month, as the two last had contact before the holidays.  Given the calendar, their next conversation might also have to address the scenario where Arenado isn’t traded prior to Spring Training, so he’d have to go through his normal spring routine under the weight of a potential change of scenery.

“There’s the mental side of this too, right?” Mozeliak said.  “He’s probably thinking, like, OK, if I have to come to camp, I want to start preparing for that, and maybe he wants to be committed to [staying in St. Louis] at that point.  So I don’t want to speak for him at this point, because we have not discussed that.  But clearly, as we get closer to Jupiter, that is something we will have to touch on.”

In a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers earlier this week, Anthony Franco described the Cardinals’ winter as “a half-measure offseason,” given how the team hadn’t dealt any of its higher-salaried players, let alone Arenado.  Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray left the Cards’ hands tied by refusing to waive their own no-movement clauses, yet impending free agents Ryan Helsley, Erick Fedde, and Steven Matz all seem like obvious trade candidates, and all remain on the roster here in mid-January.

Mozeliak provided some explanation for not moving Fedde or Matz today, noting that the Cards “don’t really love [the] idea” of potentially leaving the team short-handed on the pitching front.  “We really feel like we have some depth in our rotation right now, so I really don’t want to start preparing tearing away from that, in terms of thinking about moving a position player to achieve some financial goals,” Mozeliak said.  “That would be something we could consider as well, but we really don’t want to.”

Fedde is owed $7.5MM in 2025, while Matz is owed $12MM and would likely be more of a salary-dump candidate given his injuries and struggles in recent years.  Helsley will receive $8.2MM in his final season of team control.  While all have substantial salaries, the $27.2MM total is only slightly less than the $27MM owed to Arenado in 2025, when Colorado’s $5MM contribution is subtracted from his $32MM price tag.  Between that math and the $27MM also owed to Arenado in 2026, it seems like the Cardinals simply want to exhaust all possibilities in moving Arenado before moving onto other payroll-cutting moves.

The more salary St. Louis is able to unload, the more the team can also add to the roster.  Mozeliak suggested that if the money becomes available, the club could look at “obviously [the] bullpen” or possibly “a right-handed bat with some thump, something like that.”  The Cardinals have a decent amount of lineup balance already, but with Arenado on the move, the team would presumably be looking to replace him with another righty bat at a much lower price tag.  In theory, this bat might come in the outfield — right fielder Jordan Walker is right-handed, but Lars Nootbaar, Victor Scott II, and Michael Siani all swing from the left side.

Nolan Arenado Reportedly Less Likely To Be Traded

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The Nolan Arenado saga has been perhaps the main storyline of the Cardinals’ offseason. As the club looks to scale back payroll and open up playing time for younger players (Nolan Gorman, in particular), Arenado has become one of the most prominent trade candidates in the sport. His full no-trade clause, downturn at the plate since 2023 and remaining three years and $74MM ($10MM of which is being covered by the Rockies) all combine to complicate the matter, however; Arenado has already reportedly invoked that no-trade clause to nix a deal to the Astros, who pivoted in mere days and signed first baseman Christian Walker to a three-year, $60MM deal instead (a contract nearly mirroring the $64MM they’d have owed to Arenado).

Agent Joel Wolfe said at last month’s Winter Meetings that Arenado was only open to trades to clubs where he felt he could win both in the short-term and for the remainder of his contract. It’s a bit odd that the Astros, who reached the playoffs in 2024 and reached the ALCS each season from 2017-23, didn’t fit that criteria, but there are surely multiple factors behind his decision.

Since that time, the Red Sox have been painted as the last and best hope for the Cardinals to orchestrate an Arenado trade. Even there, the situation is muddy. Acquiring Arenado would very likely mean moving Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base, where Triston Casas currently resides. Casas could see more time at DH, though the Sox are committed to Masataka Yoshida, who has three years and $54MM remaining, at that position. There’s the possibility of trading Casas, but Boston would surely need major league talent in return. It’s debatable whether they’d be better off with Arenado at third, Devers at first and whatever young talent they could get in return for Casas. Simultaneously, the Sox are considering a run at Alex Bregman (who’d also require shifting Devers to first and finding a trade for Casas or a taker for Yoshida). It’s all quite messy.

For those reasons and more, Katie Woo of The Athletic writes that he outlook on a possible Arenado deal is becoming increasingly bleak. Woo writes that efforts to move Arenado are at a “standstill” — in part because St. Louis isn’t interested in eating a notable chunk of the contract when part of their reason for wanting to move the third baseman is a desire to scale back spending. If no deal for Arenado materializes, per Woo, the Cards could look into other ways to trim payroll (and acquire young talent).

It’s quite arguable that the Cardinals should already be doing as much. The team isn’t making any efforts to improve the club for the upcoming season, after all, and the Cards are fresh off an 83-79 season. They’ve bid farewell to Kyle Gibson Lance Lynn, Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Kittredge in free agency. Absent any effort to truly push closer to contention, it’s a stretch to think the Cardinals will make massive strides within the NL Central — let alone emerge as a bona fide threat in the postseason even if they limp to a playoff berth through a good showing within a weak division.

St. Louis has plenty of appealing players who’ll be free agents after the season and could be marketed to other clubs. Starter Erick Fedde ($7.5MM), closer Ryan Helsley ($8.2MM) and to a lesser extent veteran starter Steven Matz ($12MM) would all pique the interest of other clubs. That’s also true of setup man JoJo Romero, who’s controlled only through 2026. If the Cards aren’t taking a wholehearted aim at contending in 2025 anyhow, there’s good reason to explore trades of those players in the here and now, rather than risk a downturn in value following injuries or a poor first half of the season.

Moving Fedde or Matz would thin out the current rotation depth for a club that needs innings, though there’s of course the possibility to backfill via free agency. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this week that the club still has some interest in Mizzou product Kyle Gibson, who enjoyed pitching close to home last year and played a key mentor role for many of the team’s young players. Trading Fedde for prospects, for instance, and signing Gibson to replenish those innings could bolster the long-term outlook. It might not significantly reduce payroll on its own — it may slightly increase it, in fact — but it’d benefit the long-term health of the organization. Such a trade could also be coupled with deals of Matz and/or Helsley as well. Goold notes that both Fedde and Matz have drawn interest throughout the winter, which is only logical given the soaring price of free-agent pitching.

While The Athletic and Post-Dispatch continue to caution that chances of a trade don’t look great right now — Ken Rosenthal suggested as much today on Fair Territory, as well — MLB.com and MLB Network frame things differently. John Denton wrote this week that the Red Sox could soon pull out of the Bregman bidding, which would greatly improve the chances of an Arenado trade with St. Louis. The third baseman has already formally told the club he’d green-light a deal to Boston, per Denton, and he’s talked with friend and former teammate Trevor Story about the possibility of reuniting at Fenway Park.

Further, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggested on air this morning that as options have begun to dwindle, Arenado has begun to take a more open-minded approach. Some clubs that showed interest last month but didn’t pursue trades because of Arenado’s narrow list of criteria could come back into play, per Morosi. He suggests the Mariners and Tigers as two such clubs, though it’s virtually impossible to see how the Mariners could be considered a viable suitor given their well-documented financial constraints this winter.

The Tigers are a more plausible fit on paper, but they’ve spent quite conservatively under president of baseball ops Scott Harris; perhaps they’d have interest, but it’s hard to see them paying full freight on that contract, particularly when they have some third base options in house already (including top prospect Jace Jung).

Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat tweeted this morning that the Royals were among the teams that reached out to the Cardinals last month but didn’t pursue a trade because of a belief that Arenado wouldn’t green-light the deal. The Royals are still seeking another bat, and incumbent Maikel Garcia is a glove-first player with a lighter bat than even the recently diminished version of Arenado. Kansas City also traded its top third base prospect, Cayden Wallace, to the Nationals in last summer’s Hunter Harvey swap.

However, Arenado’s contract would figure to be quite problematic for the Royals. Beyond the $64MM total he’s owed is the fact that said commitment is front-loaded; Arenado is owed $32MM this coming season ($5MM being covered by Colorado). The Royals’ payroll is already close to $10MM higher than it was a year ago, per RosterResource. Rosenthal noted in the aforementioned Fair Territory segment (17:50 mark) that he was surprised Kansas City even eked out another $7MM to re-sign Michael Lorenzen. Piling an additional $27MM onto the payroll and pushing their Opening Day would push payroll close to or slightly north of $150MM. That’d top the current franchise record of $143MM, set back in 2017. Arenado might represent a clearer upgrade to the Royals or Mariners than to some other speculative fits, but neither seems to have the financial wherewithal to bring him aboard — even if Arenado were willing to approve the deal.

If that feels like a lot of words effectively downplaying the possibility of a trade and maintaining the status quo — well, it is. The simple reality is that Arenado was never going to be an easy player to move, and his decision to quash a trade to Houston — and the Astros’ immediate pivot — probably eliminated the best chance of the Cardinals moving him at all. Absent a new approach from the Yankees — New York offered Marcus Stroman for Arenado earlier this winter, which didn’t interest St. Louis — there’s no long-term contender with a clear need at third base and ample payroll space to take on a 34-year-old player whose bat appears to be on the decline.

Chances of a trade shouldn’t be considered dead and buried, of course. Spring injuries could always create a need for a big-payroll contender whose options at that juncture are limited. Such circumstances could prove a meaningful catalyst. Trades elsewhere on the market could alter another team’s considerations at the hot corner and spark some interest in Arenado. For now, however, it seems increasingly likely that Arenado may not have the market to facilitate a trade. If the Cardinals begrudgingly come to feel the same, it could create some fascinating ripple effects with regard to the rest of their roster.

Red Sox Notes: Arenado, Casas, Bregman, Sasaki

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Reports last month from MLB.com’s John Denton indicated that the Red Sox, Mets, Phillies, Padres, Dodgers, and Angels were six of the teams (and perhaps the only six teams) Nolan Arenado was willing to waive his no-trade protection to join, should the Cardinals work out an acceptable swap with any of these clubs.  Four weeks after that initial report, Boston remains “a preferred destination” for Arenado, according to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam.  What isn’t known, however, is if the Red Sox and Cardinals are anywhere close on a deal, or if the Sox are particularly motivated to bring Arenado to Beantown.

Acquiring Arenado would check a couple of big needs off of Boston’s offseason shopping list.  Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow reiterated earlier this week that the Sox were looking to add “a right-handed bat out of the middle of the lineup,” considering that the team is heavy with left-handed hitters.  Bringing one of the best defensive third basemen of all time to Fenway Park would instantly help Boston’s subpar infield defense, and Arenado would even be reunited with his good friend and former Rockies teammate Trevor Story.

One initial roadblock, of course, is the fact that the Red Sox already have a star third baseman in Rafael Devers.  Though Arenado has indicated that he is open to a position change in the right circumstance and Devers’ agent said in no uncertain terms in November that his client was staying at third base, it is hard to believe that Arenado would move off the hot corner in deference to a much weaker fielder in Devers.  If a trade did happen, Devers would presumably become the new first baseman or DH, though this creates other conflicts with Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida.

Both of those players, however, have been mentioned in trade talks this winter, and even in some of the same trade talks.  Casas is the far more valuable trade asset of the two, and while Breslow said “we’re certainly not shopping him,” that naturally doesn’t mean Casas is off limits.  Indeed, Cotillo and McAdam write that “there remains a belief in the industry that the Red Sox remain open to trading Casas, potentially for young pitching, to facilitate other roster maneuvering.”

It could be that the Sox are looking to first trade Casas before making any other moves, as their leverage in a Casas deal would be lessened if the Red Sox created a positional logjam beforehand.  Trading Casas purely as a vehicle to clear payroll space surely isn’t Breslow’s preference, which is why that aforementioned attempt to link Yoshida and Casas together was still part of an attempt to bring Luis Castillo from Seattle to Boston.

Payroll is also a major aspect of any Arenado trade, as the third baseman is owed $74MM over the remaining three seasons of his contract.  Between deferrals and the $10MM being covered by the Rockies, the present-day value of Arenado’s contract reportedly works out to $60MM.  The Cardinals’ chief incentive in trading Arenado is naturally to move as much of this money as possible, and the proposed deal with the Astros that Arenado blocked would’ve seen Houston take on either $45MM (as per Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of the Athletic) or $59MM (as per ESPN’s Jeff Passan) of the $60MM figure.

Theoretically, the Red Sox could absorb the entire contract and still stay under the $241MM luxury tax threshold, as RosterResource estimates Boston’s current tax number at just under $212MM.  It remains unclear exactly how much payroll capacity Breslow has been allotted this winter, as while the Sox have made overtures to several top free agents, their spending has been pretty modest to date.  The Red Sox could perhaps convince the Cardinals to take on a bigger chunk of Arenado’s salary (or at least closer to the $45MM figure) if better prospects are offered in return.  Chaim Bloom’s involvement in this speculative trade is an interesting wrinkle, as the incoming St. Louis president of baseball operations has plenty of knowledge of Boston’s farm system due to his past stint as the Red Sox CBO.

Trading for Arenado would come at a lesser overall cost than signing Alex Bregman, another top third baseman who remains on Boston’s radar.  That said, the Red Sox are known to still be in the running for Bregman, who has some notable ties to the Sox in manager Alex Cora (from their days together in Houston) and his longtime friend Walker Buehler, who just signed with the Sox himself before Christmas.  Buehler recently told Cotillo and other reporters that even in his brief time in a Sox uniform, “I have certainly made a pitch all over the place for [Bregman] to come to Boston.”

Turning to other Red Sox targets, it remains unknown if Boston is still one of the teams getting consideration from Roki Sasaki.  Earlier this week, Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe updated reporters on his client’s search for a Major League team, and didn’t give any indication that the right-hander was finished with his in-person meetings with interested clubs.

The Red Sox weren’t one of the seven teams known to have spoken with Sasaki already, and word hasn’t broken if a meeting has been scheduled or perhaps it is has already taken place since Wolfe’s last presser.  As of yesterday, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reported that the Sox hadn’t “been told they are out of” the running for Sasaki’s services, so the situation is still up in the air.

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