Overnight Links: Red Sox, Jays, Posey, Past Deals
Some overnight links for your viewing pleasure as we start to get into the real late hours of the night:
- USA Today's Bob Nightengale says good morning with a series of tweets; Nightengale says he continues to hear Edwin Jackson's name floated about, and that "most executives" feel he'll be traded soon. He also wouldn't be surprised to see Adrian Beltre fall into Boston's lap if he declines arbitration. Not sure where he envisions Mike Lowell in that scenario.
- Jeff Zrebiec lists ten trade targets for the Orioles, though he admits that some are highly unlikely. In a separate piece, Peter Schmuck opines that it's not a waste of money if the O's spend money on free agents this offseason to add a few wins and show future free agents that Baltimore is trending in the right direction.
- Alex Speier of WEEI.com explains why it would be unlike the Red Sox sacrifice a high draft pick for a free agent reliever such as Mike Gonzalez or Rafael Soriano. As you know, Boston currently owes their first-round #29 pick to the Blue Jays for signing Marco Scutaro.
- Anything can happen at the Winter Meetings, writes Peter Schmuck, who reminds us of the 1990 deal between the Blue Jays and Padres that sent Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez to San Diego for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter. That trade started off as a minor discussion.
- The Boston Herald has ten things to keep in mind at this year's Winter Meetings.
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch looks at how the economy will affect this year's Winter Meetings, and poses five key questions to keep in mind this time around.
- Gordon Wittenmyer looks at why the Cubs are optimistic that they can move Milton Bradley this offseason.
- Count Tim Wakefield and Daniel Bard among those in the Jason Bay camp for the Red Sox, says Michael Silverman. While Matt Holliday may be a more complete player, Wakefield and Bard would prefer their friend and proven AL East commodity. Good read, if for no other reason than Wakefield's quote at the end on how closely he follows the offseason: "…We’ll be sitting in the dugout in spring training in Fort Myers and I’ll look across and be, ‘How the hell did he get over there?’ ”
- John Tomase touches on the Red Sox needs this offseason. Tomase hits most of the names we've already heard, and throws Mark DeRosa and Jamey Carroll into the mix as well.
- Quick! Who do you see spending the most money on the draft in 2010? Bet you didn't guess the Blue Jays (unless of course you took into consideration the large hint I provided in the title of this post). Reports are that the Jays will have a ridiculous $16MM to spend on the draft in 2010. The Jays have eight picks in the first three rounds (nine if Rod Barajas signs elsewhere), and plan to take full advantage of it.
- El Lefty Malo takes a look at the possibility that the Giants sign Jason Kendall as their starting catcher because of the belief that Buster Posey isn't ready. Apparently, it's not a thought that sits well.
- MLB.com looks back at some of the best trades and free agent signings by each club in the National League and American League since the era of Divisional play began. They've also got a more generic list of the best moves of the past 40 seasons.
- Per Kyodo News, several teams have expressed interest in So Taguchi, according to his agent Alan Nero. Several teams? Can't say I expected that one.
Orioles Offseason Gameplan
The Baltimore Sun's Jeff Zrebiec looks at five key questions for the Orioles as they head into this year's Winter Meetings. He's also got some quotes from Andy MacPhail talking about the Orioles' views on this year's free agent market. Let's go over some highlights:
- MacPhail states that the O's will be less active at the Winter Meetings than they were in 2008, when they signed Cesar Izturis, traded Ramon Hernandez, and offered a $140MM contract to Mark Teixeira. He does, however, state that when the offseason is said and done, Baltimore will likely have been more active than it was overall last year.
- Don't expect a major move from Baltimore this week. They don't have a free agent target singled out and will likely wait to see how the market takes shape as time progresses.
- While they'd like to add an impact hitter, the Orioles are unlikely to pursue names like Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, and MacPhail isn't big on the idea of trading his top prospects for short-term fixes. So far, the O's aren't thought to be bidders for veteran outfield/DH types like Jermaine Dye, Hideki Matsui, and Vladimir Guerrero.
- Luke Scott is likely Baltimore's biggest trade chip. Moving Scott would allow Nolan Reimold to DH while recovering from surgery, and improve defense by getting Felix Pie more at-bats in left field.
- Ty Wigginton is also mentioned as a trade chip. Zrebiec says the Orioles would have to be overwhelmed by an offer to move Jeremy Guthrie, and have a way to secure two veteran arms to replace him as well.
- MacPhail would prefer not to sign a closer that will cost their second-round pick, such as Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, or Rafael Soriano. Zrebiec mentions Kevin Gregg as a possibility.
- The Orioles have had talks with John Lackey's agent, but aren't expected to be serious bidders for the former Halos ace. They'll look at names like Ben Sheets, Rich Harden, and Erik Bedard instead.
- After Radhames Liz was claimed by the Padres, Baltimore found themselves with an open spot on its 40-man roster. MacPhail would prefer to give a homegrown player a shot rather than make a Rule 5 selection, unless he's convinced that the Rule 5 Draft offers something that their minor league clubs currently don't have.
Odds & Ends: Oeltjen, Hensley, Gload, Halladay
Links for Friday, as team execs and media folk pack their bags for Monday's Winter Meetings in Indianapolis…
- The Brewers signed Trent Oeltjen to a minor league deal, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy. Oeltjen, 27 in February, hit .303/.362/.500 in his third Triple A tour, playing the outfield corners.
- Brewers assistant GM Gord Ash spells out why his team won't be acquiring Roy Halladay, talking to McCalvy.
- MLB.com's Joe Frisaro tweets six minor league free agents signed by the Marlins, including Jesse Foppert, Vinny Rottino, and Hector Luna.
- The Pirates expressed "mild interest" in free agent pitcher Clay Hensley, according to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Hensley, 30, spent the year at Triple A in the Astros and Marlins organizations, posting a 3.56 ERA in 124 innings.
- Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post feels there's "still a good chance [Ross] Gload returns [to the Marlins] with a two-year deal."
- Darren Dreifort's five-year, $55MM deal tops Jeff Passan's list of the ten worst contracts of the 2000s for Yahoo.
- Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues explains why the Yankees probably won't sign Rafael Soriano.
- In his Winter Meetings preview for AOL FanHouse, Ed Price says there was some discussion about a Tigers-Diamondbacks trade involving Edwin Jackson and Max Scherzer.
- ESPN's Buster Olney talked to rival executives who say the Tigers have not aggressively shopped Curtis Granderson.
- Olney doesn't think the Mariners will pay up for Jason Bay. He believes the Red Sox are "controlling the market" for Bay and Matt Holliday.
- Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Cardinals are "increasingly weighing spreading what it would cost to retain Holliday over several players." Bernie Miklasz of the P-D feels the Cards are "enacting their exit strategy from the Holliday sweepstakes." I would not be surprised to see the Cardinals make their best offer soon - let's say $110MM over six years – and entirely move on if Scott Boras rejects it.
- SI's Jon Heyman tweets that Nick Johnson is "drawing interest from the Giants, maybe Braves, and a half-dozen more."
- MLB.com's Corey Brock talked to former Padres GM Kevin Towers, who will meet with the Mets, Yankees, Mariners, and Red Sox at the Winter Meetings.
- ESPN's Keith Law isn't impressed with the Phillies' Placido Polanco signing. My initial impression upon hearing about the signing is that no other team would've valued Polanco that highly.
- MLB.com's Joe Frisaro tweets that other teams have been more aggressive on Jamey Carroll than the Marlins. Other Carroll suitors include the Rockies, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, A's, Rangers, Pirates, Reds and Indians.
Odds & Ends: Hudson, Pujols, Gonzalez, D-Backs
Some Thursday night links…
- Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports note that the Phillies had a creative idea for third base before signing Placido Polanco – they asked Orlando Hudson if he'd make the position change. He passed.
- Cardinals president Bill DeWitt III spoke openly about the club's limitations in retaining Albert Pujols beyond his current deal, writes Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Signing Pujols and free agent Matt Holliday to new contracts would almost definitely mean committing upwards of 40% of the team's payroll to two players.
- If the Tigers cannot re-sign free agent relievers Brandon Lyon or Fernando Rodney, they may have to look into a pair of Type A free agents, writes James Schmehl of MLive.com. Atlanta's Mike Gonzalez or Rafael Soriano could appeal to Detroit, but they would require the forfeiture of a first-round pick.
- Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes conducted a live chat today on MLB.com. It sounds as though Byrnes would be content to more or less stand pat this offseason, telling one fan that most of the club's impact players evolve within their system rather than "arrive via offseason splash." Don't expect Arizona to go after a second baseman this winter either as Byrnes says he looks forward to competition over the spot this season, featuring late-season acquisition Tony Abreu.
- More from Arizona as the club outrighted a pair of prospects to their Triple-A affiliate – pitcher Kyler Newby and catcher Luke Carlin, according to MLB.com's Steve Gilbert. Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic writes that the move was not made in anticipation of a free agent signing or trade.
- Matt Stairs told Larry Mahoney of the Bangor Daily News that he would like to play next season. Andy Martino of the Philadelphia Inquirer says not to expect Stairs back in Philadelphia next season, as Phils GM Ruben Amaro offered him the opportunity to audition for other teams at Spring Training.
- Jacque Jones also wants back in baseball, according to MLB.com's Thomas Harding. The 34-year-old last played in 2008, seeing time in 42 games in which he recorded an OPS of .446. However, his agent insists that teams will be impressed with his physical conditioning and desire to continue his career.
Braves Expect Soriano & Gonzalez To Leave
David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports that the Braves fully expect relievers Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez to turn down the team's arbitration offers and explore the market. The Braves, who surrendered a top pick when they signed Billy Wagner, stand to gain four picks if Soriano and Gonzalez sign elsewhere.
That seems likely, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. One GM told Heyman that the former Braves are "the two most sought-after relievers on the market," so their Type A status doesn't seem to be scaring teams away.
Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports report that the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Orioles and Nationals are believed to have interest in the pair.
However, one high-ranking executive tells ESPN.com's Buster Olney that Soriano would be "insane" to turn down arbitration, which could net him a deal worth about $8MM.
Astros Rumors: Pitching Targets, Valverde, Tejada
Houston Astros Senior Director of Digital Media Alyson Footer invited her Twitter followers to participate in a Q&A with Astros GM Ed Wade. The exchange resulted in too many tweets to individually link them all, but check out her Twitter account for some quotes from the conversation. Here are a few points of interest:
- If the team cannot retain Jose Valverde and/or LaTroy Hawkins, Wade notes that there are other back-of-the-bullpen options out there. He says the club would prefer to have Valverde return as their closer, but mentions Fernando Rodney, Kevin Gregg, Rafael Soriano, and Mike Gonzalez as potential alternatives.
- The Astros will "proceed with caution" when it comes to pursuing pitchers like Ben Sheets, who have questionable injury histories. Wade pointed to Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz as cautionary tales.
- Wade doesn't expect to have a whole lot of money to commit to any starting pitching additions, given the other holes the team needs to fill.
- The GM singles out Randy Wolf as one starter who is "probably not realistic" due to his expected price tag.
- As much as the team would like to bring back Miguel Tejada, the market for the veteran will dictate whether they'll be able to afford it.
- The team might acquire a stopgap behind the plate, but would prefer if one of their in-house options could step up and earn the starting job.
Braves Offer Arb To Soriano, Gonzalez, Not LaRoche, Anderson
The Braves' arbitration decisions are in, thanks to a tweet from David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constituation. They've offered arbitration to Type A relievers Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez, but not to Type B first baseman Adam LaRoche or Type B outfielder Garret Anderson.
We predicted these correctly, but the LaRoche decision still gives pause. He hit a solid .278/.357/.487 on the season, but the Braves apparently did not want to be locked into a salary north of $7MM for 2010.
The price of Soriano and Gonzalez goes up for other teams; each will now cost a draft pick to sign.
Red Sox Express Interest In Scutaro, Escobar, And More
Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald says the Red Sox have kicked the tires on many free agents already, with Marco Scutaro and Kelvim Escobar the newest names. Others include Rafael Soriano, Matt Holliday, Rick Ankiel, Adrian Beltre, John Lackey, Aroldis Chapman, Billy Wagner, Mike Gonzalez, Alex Gonzalez, and, of course, Jason Bay. Silverman cautions that not all names connected to the Red Sox have "enduring news value."
Scutaro certainly makes sense for Boston; he's the best available shortstop, considering both the free agent and trade market. We ranked Scutaro the eighth-best free agent overall, perhaps a reflection of a weaker market this year. It'd be nice to see Scutaro sign with the Red Sox, as we'd get at least one of our 50 predictions right.
Aside from committing a multiyear contract to Scutaro, the Sox might have to surrender their #29 pick in the June 2010 draft to the Blue Jays. Looking at the Elias numbers, it is possible that the Jays get screwed out of a first-rounder again, as they did losing A.J. Burnett last year (of course, the Jays failed to sign James Paxton anyway). If the Red Sox sign Scutaro and any of Soriano, Gonzalez, Holliday, or Lackey, the Braves, Cardinals, or Angels would get Boston's #29 pick instead and the Jays would get their second-rounder (assuming arbitration is offered to those players).
As Silverman notes, Escobar would fit right in with the John Smoltz/Brad Penny signings of last year. Those two bombed, but here's the question – what kind of success rate should the Red Sox expect from these one-year pitcher gambles? It is OK if one out of five works out?
Braves Notes: Soriano, Gonzalez, Wagner
Mark Bowman of MLB.com discussed some of Atlanta's options in the free agent market, and here are a few of the more notable pieces of news….
- Relievers Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez "will likely leave Atlanta" for greener free agent pastures, and thus the Braves are looking for new options at the back of their bullpen. Bowman says the Braves have talked to free agent closer Billy Wagner's representatives and "won't necessarily be scared" by Wagner's Type A status since Soriano and Gonzalez are also both Type A's. If those two were to sign elsewhere, the compensation that Atlanta would receive would more than make up for the picks they would lose for signing Wagner. The Braves and Wagner's most recent club, the Red Sox, may end up virtually trading relievers since Soriano and Gonzalez are two names on Boston's lengthy list of possible free agent targets.
- Bowman lists former Brave Octavio Dotel as a potential set-up option, and Fernando Rodney as a signing who could serve as either a set-up man or a closer.
- There isn't anything to rumors that Atlanta will try to trade with Detroit for Miguel Cabrera, or sign free agent Jermaine Dye. Cabrera's big contract is too rich for the Braves' blood, and as for Dye, there is no DH spot in the National League to stash a right fielder who posted a -20 UZR and -24.5 UZR/150 last season.
- Signing Marlon Byrd would make Jordan Schaefer expendable, Bowman reports. Byrd wouldn't necessarily solve Atlanta's need for a right-handed outfield bat, however, given that Byrd's career splits against right-handed and left-handed pitching are pretty even — a .769 lifetime OPS against southpaws and a .759 OPS against righties. Byrd actually hit significantly better against righties (.835 OPS) last season than he did against lefties (.744 OPS).
- The Braves are prepared to see what other offers Adam LaRoche receives before they decide if they want to bring him back next season.
Yankees Interested In Gonzalez, Soriano?
An MLB executive tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that the Yankees plan to pursue free agent relievers Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez. However, another source tells Rosenthal that the Yanks intend to develop relievers from within the organization.
Both relievers are Type A free agents, so they would cost draft picks if the Braves offer arbitration. The Yankees might to prefer to wait until December 1st. By then, we'll know whether the Braves offered arbitration and if any other ranked relievers can be signed without surrendering a high pick.
We heard yesterday that the Red Sox asked the Braves for the relievers' medical records. If the Red Sox and Yankees decide to pursue Gonzalez, they'll be negotiating with his new agent: Scott Boras.