Braves Option AJ Smith-Shawver
The Braves announced this morning that they’ve optioned right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver to Triple-A Gwinnett, thus ending his bid for a spot in the team’s Opening Day rotation. He’ll begin the season in the upper minors and serve as one of the team’s first lines of defense should an injury occur on the starting staff.
It’s not an entirely unexpected move. The top spots in the Atlanta rotation are set in stone, with Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Chris Sale all assured roles heading into camp. That left the fifth spot to a likely battle between Smith-Shawver, Bryce Elder and offseason signee Reynaldo Lopez, whom the Braves plan to stretch back out as a starter after spending the last couple seasons in a bullpen role.
Lopez’s contract made him a favorite to begin with, but the fact that he’s yielded just one run and three hits with a 7-to-2 K/BB ratio and 53% grounder rate in eight spring innings surely hasn’t harmed his chances. Smith-Shawver, by comparison, has been tagged for seven runs on a dozen hits and three walks with 11 strikeouts in 7 2/3 spring frames. Elder, a 2023 All-Star, has had similar struggles to Smith-Shawver in his small sample of spring innings. In 7 2/3 frames, he’s been charged with six runs on the strength of 10 hits and three walks with 10 strikeouts. It might seem surprising to push an All-Star out of the rotation in favor of a converted reliever, but Elder did wilt in alarming fashion down the stretch in ’23, posting a 5.75 ERA with just a 15.1% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate over his final 14 starts/72 innings.
The composition of the Opening Day rotation is in some ways immaterial — particularly for a Braves club that’ll enter the year as an overwhelming postseason favorite. In all likelihood, each of Lopez, Smith-Shawver and Elder will start games for the Braves this season. Injuries limited Fried to just 77 2/3 innings last year, while Sale has pitched only 151 innings over the past four seasons combined. Morton has been a workhorse, ranking sixth in the majors in games started and 11th in innings pitched dating back to 2018 — but he’s also entering his age-40 season. Injuries are an inevitability among big league pitchers, so the Braves will likely have to tap into their impressive collection of depth arms — headlined by Elder and Smith-Shawver — at various points in 2024.
While the Smith-Shawver demotion clearly isn’t a means of manipulating his service time, it’s still worth noting that the decision could have implications in that regard. The 21-year-old made his MLB debut in 2023 and started five games (plus one relief appearance), pitching to a 4.26 ERA with a 20-to-11 K/BB ratio in 25 1/3 innings. He picked up 50 days of service last season, meaning he’d reach a full year of MLB service with another 122 days on this year’s roster (roughly two-thirds of the season). If he reaches that full year of service, Smith-Shawver would be controllable through the 2029 season. If he spends fewer than 122 days on the roster, he’ll be controllable through the 2030 season.
Smith-Shawver soared from High-A to the majors in 2023, pitching to a combined 2.76 ERA across three minor league levels before making that MLB debut. Baseball America ranks him as the game’s No. 42 prospect. He’s ranked 63rd at FanGraphs and 69th at MLB.com.
The Braves’ Fifth Starter Possibilities
There’s no question about the top four in the Braves rotation. Atlanta acquired Chris Sale over the weekend to join Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton in a high-upside staff, then promptly extended Sale. The Braves don’t have a set choice for the #5 spot to open the year. It seems that’ll be up for grabs in camp.
On an appearance on The Bill Shanks Show on Tuesday, Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos suggested the front office was willing to consider a number of options for the last rotation job. “It’ll be open competition for the fifth spot,” he told Shanks. The front office leader name-checked five candidates for the position (albeit without saying it was an exhaustive list): Bryce Elder, Reynaldo López, AJ Smith-Shawver, Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep.
Atlanta had a camp battle for the final two spots last spring. They surprisingly tabbed Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd, neither of whom had made their MLB debuts, for season-opening roles after impressive Spring Training performances. While neither rookie fared all that well, the Braves are open to again turning to a young arm if they outperform others in the spring.
“We’re going to take the best players,” Anthopoulos said. “We never assume the division. You can lose it or win it by a game, as we saw in 2022 (when) it came down the wire. … We’re going to break with the best team. Like anything, we’ll try to maintain our depth. If there’s a lot of ties or it’s close, we’ll keep our depth. But we’re hopeful these guys are all good in Spring Training and make it hard on us.”
Perhaps an opportunity will arise for the Braves to add a surefire #5 starter within the next couple months. That doesn’t appear to be an organizational priority, however. There seems a good chance Atlanta is content with a camp battle between the group that Anthopoulos referenced. They’ll likely all play roles at some point as injuries necessitate, but we’ll run through the top candidates for the Opening Day job as things currently stand.
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Elder surprisingly emerged as a rotation mainstay for Atlanta a year ago. Despite briefly starting the season with Triple-A Gwinnett, he wound up taking the ball 31 times and tossing 174 2/3 innings — second on the team behind Strider. Elder had a great first half, pitching to a 2.97 ERA en route to an All-Star selection. He didn’t find that same level of success down the stretch, as he surrendered a 5.11 mark in the second half. The Phillies tagged him for six runs in 2 2/3 frames during his only postseason start.
At year’s end, Elder still carried a solid 3.81 ERA. Despite the rough finish, he was a valuable part of Brian Snitker’s pitching staff. It’s nevertheless questionable whether he can replicate a sub-4.00 ERA without missing many bats. Elder had a below-average 17.5% strikeout rate and 9.9% swinging strike percentage a season ago. He’s a ground-ball specialist whose sinker was below the 90 MPH mark on average. It’s a very different profile from the high-octane strikeout stuff of the top four in the rotation (and that of some of his competitors for the #5 job). Anthopoulos pointed out that Elder still has a full slate of minor league options and could start the year in Gwinnett if he doesn’t break camp with the MLB team, as Ian Anderson did in 2023.
López, on the other hand, is certainly going to be on the major league roster. The question is whether that’s in the rotation or the bullpen. Atlanta signed the 30-year-old righty to a three-year, $30MM free agent deal at the start of the offseason. While the price tag wasn’t a surprise, the Braves’ subsequent announcement they might stretch López out as a starter was unexpected.
Teams have used López almost exclusively in relief for the past two and a half seasons. He hasn’t had a full year as a starter since 2019, when he was tagged for a 5.38 ERA in 184 innings for the White Sox. López has shown the durability to hold up from the rotation, topping 180 frames in consecutive seasons for Chicago in 2018-19. The former top prospect has been much more effective when working in shorter stints, though. He owns a 3.02 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout percentage in 131 1/3 innings between a trio of clubs since the start of 2022.
Smith-Shawver, who turned 21 in November, was among the youngest players to reach the majors last season. He got to the big leagues within two years of being drafted out of high school. Smith-Shawver didn’t hold a long-term rotation role, appearing in six games (five starts). He posted a 4.26 ERA through 25 1/3 innings despite middling strikeout and walk rates and seven home runs.
The 6’3″ hurler had a more impressive statistical track record in the minors. He combined for 62 frames between the top three minor league levels, allowing a 2.76 ERA while striking out 31.3% of opponents. Smith-Shawver walked over 13% of batters faced in the minors, so he’s clearly not a finished product. That’s to be expected given his youth. The Braves were impressed enough with the huge swing-and-miss potential he’d shown to carry him in relief on their playoff roster last October. He has two options remaining.
Ynoa, still just 25, pitched at the MLB level from 2019-22. He turned in mid-rotation results (4.05 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk percentage) in 2021, although he was limited to 91 innings thanks to a self-inflicted hand fracture when he punched a dugout wall. He dropped into a depth role by the ’22 season, allowing a 5.68 ERA over 18 Triple-A appearances. He underwent Tommy John surgery that September and missed all of last year. He is expected to be a full participant in Spring Training. The Braves tendered him an arbitration contract but could send him to the minors for another season, as he has one option remaining.
The only player in this quintet who has yet to reach the majors, Waldrep is on a fast track to MLB. Atlanta’s first-round pick a year ago, the hard-throwing righty went from the College World Series in June to Triple-A by September. The Florida product had a brilliant 1.53 ERA while fanning a third of batters faced in his first eight professional starts at four levels (including one appearance in Gwinnett).
Atlanta is among the most aggressive teams in promoting its top prospects. As a college draftee, Waldrep is around nine months older than Smith-Shawver is. He has far less professional experience and isn’t on the 40-man roster, but he was drafted out of a strong program in college baseball’s top conference. Anthopoulos conceded it’d be ideal for both Waldrep and Smith-Shawver to have more developmental time but rhetorically asked, “if they come in and they are so much better than anybody else, how we do deny them?“
MLBTR Podcast: Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Phillies re-sign Aaron Nola (0:50)
- The Braves sign Reynaldo López (7:20)
- The Cardinals sign Lance Lynn (10:30)
- Interesting non-tenders, including Brandon Woodruff… (12:10)
- Spencer Turnbull… (14:10)
- ..and Rowdy Tellez (17:10)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Why is the MLB offseason so slow to get going? The other leagues, most of your top free agents are off the board within a few days. It’s been three weeks since players filed for free agency and nothing. (19:55)
- Do you think the Dodgers do something major this year or will it be another disappointing offseason for the fans? (23:30)
- Do you think the Pirates sign Rhys Hoskins or settle for someone cheaper? (26:20)
Check out our past episodes!
- Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
- Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
- Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here
Braves Sign Reynaldo Lopez
The Braves announced Monday morning that they’ve signed right-hander Reynaldo Lopez to a three-year contract that will guarantee him $30MM. The CAA client will be paid $4MM in 2024 and $11MM in both 2025 and 2026. There’s an $8MM club option for the 2027 season with a $4MM buyout.
Lopez becomes the fifth name added to the Braves’ bullpen mix since their season ended, joining re-signed righties Joe Jimenez (three years, $26MM) and Pierce Johnson (two years, $14.25MM) and trade acquisitions Aaron Bummer and Jackson Kowar. Interestingly, however, Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets that the Braves will have Lopez prepare as a starting pitcher this winter.
While the club isn’t necessarily penciling Lopez into the 2024 rotation, the Braves believe he can have success in either role and ramping him down from starting to relieving is of course easier than the inverse. Lopez’s specific role may not be determined until the spring, but it’s certainly notable that there’s at least a chance he’ll get another look as a starter with his new club.
Lopez, 30 in January, has plenty of experience in both roles but hasn’t had much success as a starting pitcher. Once one of the sport’s top pitching prospects, he went from the Nationals to the White Sox alongside Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning in the 2016 trade sending Adam Eaton back to Washington. While he gave the White Sox 32 starts and 188 innings of 3.91 ERA ball in 2018, he did so with shaky peripherals. On the whole, Lopez carries a lifetime 3.01 ERA out of the bullpen but a much rockier 4.73 mark as a starter.
Lopez’s career took off, in earnest, with a full-time move to the bullpen — a role in which he’s excelled for the past two seasons, albeit in different ways. The flamethrowing righty had a rough start in ’22 but was one of the sport’s most dominant bullpen arms over that season’s final four months, logging a 1.54 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate and 3.1% walk rate from early June through season’s end. Overall, his 2022 campaign ended with a sterling 2.76 ERA, a slightly above-average strikeout rate (24.8%) and an elite walk rate (4.3%).
In 2023, Lopez’s run prevention was again strong (3.27 ERA), but he took a different route to get there. Brandishing a fastball that was now averaging a blistering 98.4 mph — a 1.3 mph increase over the prior season’s already-strong 97.1 mph — Lopez punched out a huge 29.9% of his opponents. However, his 12.2% walk rate was nearly triple that of the prior season. He all but abandoned his curveball, throwing it at just a 1.2% clip (after 7.2% in 2022).
The 2023 version of Lopez was effectively a two-pitch pitcher: blazing fastball and hard slider (with a seldom-used changeup and curveball). He has, however, had seasons where he’s thrown both his change and his hook at a 20% clip or higher, so there’s certainly a diverse enough collection of pitches in his arsenal to succeed as a starter — if the Braves can coax better and more consistent results from his secondary offerings. If Lopez were to work as a starter, it’s only natural to think his fastball velocity would drop a tick, but he’s still have well above-average heat regardless.
To an extent, it’s possible that Lopez’s ultimate usage in 2024 depends on the remainder of Atlanta’s offseason. As things stand, the Braves’ rotation includes Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder. There’ll be competition for that fifth spot, likely including Lopez but also featuring top prospect AJ Smith-Shawver, veteran Ian Anderson (who’ll be returning from Tommy John surgery), southpaw Dylan Dodd and righty Huascar Ynoa. The Braves have been linked to some free agents of note thus far, and if they succeed in signing Sonny Gray or acquiring another veteran starter, that’d likely push Lopez more firmly into the bullpen.
If Lopez ends up in his more familiar bullpen role, he’ll join a comically deep group. In addition to the aforementioned Jimenez, Johnson and Bummer, the Braves will deploy Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek in what’s shaping up to be one of the most experienced and most talented collection of relief arms in the Majors.
Lopez’s $4MM salary for the 2024 season pushes the Braves’ payroll up to around $207MM, per Roster Resource’s projections. However, while its backloaded nature spares Atlanta some bottom-line payroll in the upcoming season, the contract still comes with a much heftier $10MM luxury-tax hit, as all luxury calculations are based on a deal’s average annual value.
The $10MM AAV on Lopez’s contract pushes the Braves squarely into luxury-tax territory, as they’re now at about $241.6MM of luxury considerations — comfortably north of this year’s $237MM luxury barrier. They also paid the luxury tax last season, meaning their penalty levels will rise. Rather than a 20% dollar-for-dollar tax, they’ll now pay a 30% tax (with increasing penalties if they surpass the threshold by more than $20MM total). They’re also in line for even harsher penalties come 2025, as third-time payors face even steeper rates of taxation.
Quick Hits: Lovullo, Votto, Carter, Lopez
Torey Lovullo received a one-year contract extension back in June, and it looks like a longer-term deal might soon be in the works for the Diamondbacks manager. GM Mike Hazen told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert that when Lovullo’s extension was being negotiated over the summer, he told the skipper “we got to get through the rest of the season. And I said if good things happen and we get to the playoffs and we get where we need to go, that he and I will have another conversation.”
Needless to say, plenty of “good things” have indeed taken place. The D’Backs reached the playoffs, upset the NL Central-winning Brewers, and are two wins away from upsetting the Dodgers and reaching the NLCS for the third time in franchise history. Lovullo and Hazen both joined the organization prior to the 2017 season, and with Hazen’s new deal keeping him in Arizona through at least the 2028 campaign, it makes sense that Lovullo would also be getting some extra security. With the D’Backs going through some struggles prior to 2023, Lovullo had been kept on something of a short leash, as his previous two contracts had been a one-year deal with a club option (that was exercised), and then the one-year extension from June that has him locked up through the 2024 season.
More from around the baseball world….
- Now that Joey Votto has said he wants to return next season, the question is whether or not the Reds will exercise their $20MM club option on Votto’s services, or buy out the option for $7MM. In the view of Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer, “the financial side of the decision on his option should be a no-brainer” given how Votto is worth more than $13MM as “a meaningful draw and revenue-enhancing player brand.” Votto has become synonymous with Reds baseball on an international level, as Wittenmyer points out that Nike listed Votto 13th on their list of highest-selling jerseys. With more revenue pouring into the Reds in terms of attendance and TV ratings, Wittenmyer feels it would be a misfire to let a franchise icon walk away, or even to give other teams a chance to negotiate in free agency.
- Evan Carter‘s immediate impact helped the Rangers reach the playoffs, and then advance past the Rays and take a 2-0 lead on the Orioles in the ALDS. It has been quite the start for a player who just made his MLB debut a month ago today, and who was universally seen as a bizarrely huge reach when Texas selected him in the second round of the five-round 2020 draft. Yahoo Sports’ Hannah Keyser explores how the Rangers found Carter as a high schooler in Tennessee, with that interest sparked because ex-pitching coordinator Danny Clark happened to be a childhood acquaintance of Carter’s father. “We just kind of identified him a little bit earlier in the process and really liked him,” scout Derrick Tucker said, and few other teams even got a chance to see Carter play because the pandemic canceled his senior-year baseball season. Though Carter hadn’t cracked even top-200 (from MLB Pipeline) or top-500 (from Baseball America) rankings, and despite the little margin for error in the shortened draft, the Rangers still make the pick and seem to have found a hidden gem.
- The Guardians haven’t traditionally spent much on bullpen acquisitions, but Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer feels the team will “do more than kick the tires when it comes to trying to” re-sign Reynaldo Lopez. Picked up off waivers by the Guards as part of their last-minute playoff push in late August, Lopez couldn’t have pitched any better during his brief time in Cleveland, with a perfect 0.00 ERA over 11 innings of relief work. With a 3.14 ERA over 189 innings in 2021-23, Lopez has quietly become a very solid reliever since his full-time move to bullpen, and it figures to land him one of the more lucrative contracts of any free agent reliever this winter. This might represent something of a splurge for the cost-conscious Guardians, but obviously they liked what they saw in the righty’s work.
Guardians Claim Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Matt Moore
In a swift retooling of the pitching staff, the Guardians have claimed right-handers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez and lefty Matt Moore off waivers from the Angels, Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN report. It’s a sudden, jarring final push to salvage a postseason appearance by Cleveland — one that would have seemed impossible just 72 hours ago.
The Angels’ decision to place roughly a quarter of their roster on waivers — Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone all hit waivers on Tuesday as well — stunned the industry, though the rationale behind it is at least sound. The Angels aggressively pushed for a postseason berth at the deadline, acquiring Giolito, Lopez, Grichuk and C.J. Cron, but have since lost two-thirds of their games and fallen from postseason contention in a stacked AL West. (Somewhat amusingly, their 64-70 record is the same as the Guardians, though the AL Central is the sport’s weakest division.)
That slate of trades pushed the Halos over the luxury tax threshold, which would reduce their draft compensation in the event that Shohei Ohtani signs elsewhere after rejecting a qualifying offer. They’d also face steeper penalties in 2024 in the event that they exceeded the tax barrier next year. But, by waiving this slate of players and seeing each of Giolito, Lopez, Moore, Renfroe (Reds) and Leone (Mariners) all come off the books, the Angels will duck back under the tax threshold. Their theoretical comp pick for Ohtani’s departure would come prior to the third round of the draft rather than between the fourth and fifth rounds. They also won’t face any escalating penalties in the event that they wind up as a luxury tax payor next season.
It’s a bad look for MLB to see such a brazenly non-competitive move by a team that just four weeks ago energized its fanbase and clubhouse with a bold win-now push. At the same time, the Angels can’t really be faulted for the decision at this juncture, given the manner in which things have played out. They’re merely taking advantage of the rules that have been collectively bargained between the league and the Players Association. None of the players they waived would’ve been eligible or considered for a qualifying offer anyhow, so there’s quite literally no incentive for the Angels to hold onto them and strong incentive for them to engage in this tactic now that their playoff hopes are all but mathematically dashed.
While Major League Baseball perhaps ought to look into ways to prevent mass roster purges of this nature in future Augusts, there’s little to be done about it now — and the Guardians stand to benefit. Cleveland has spent the entirety of the year looking up at the Twins in the American League Central standings, and after taking two of three from Minnesota in their just-completed series now faces only a five-game deficit. It’s worth wondering what might’ve happened if the Twins had swept or at least won the series — Minnesota was within one strike of winning yesterday’s game, but the bullpen couldn’t hold the lead — though perhaps Cleveland would’ve made the claims even if facing a six- or seven-game deficit.
A firm answer to that hypothetical probably can’t ever be known, but it’s a moot point anyhow; the Guardians’ comeback win yesterday brought them within striking distance of the Twins in the division, and they’ll now add three high-caliber arms to their pitching staff. Giolito, of course, is the most notable of the bunch and perhaps the most vital, given the extent of the pitching injuries that have ravaged the Cleveland rotation this year. Each of Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill has been out more seven weeks. The Guardians, acknowledging that their playoff hopes had slipped, traded Aaron Civale to the Rays prior to the deadline.
Giolito joins a rookie-laden rotation, adding a veteran arm to stand alongside the impressive trio of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen. The expectation is that Quantrill will soon be ready to join that group, and the club has also expressed optimism that Bieber could return late in the month.
While the 2023 season has been Giolito’s worst in recent memory, that’s largely due to poor results with the team that just waived him. After pitching to a 3.79 ERA with a 25.8% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate in 121 innings with the White Sox, Giolito was torched for a 6.89 ERA with worse strikeout (22.8%) and walk (10.3%) rates as a member of the Halos. Most dramatically, an already too-high home run rate of 1.49 per nine innings pitched spiked to 2.76 as an Angel.
Looking at Giolito’s track record as a whole, however, it’s easy enough to see why he was claimed by several teams (the others all having lower waiver priority than Cleveland). Dating back to 2019, Giolito sports a 3.99 ERA in 743 innings. His strikeout rate has dipped over the past two seasons, but he’s still averaging 93-94 mph on his heater, punching out about a quarter of his opponents, and has generally shown good command throughout his MLB career. The Cy Young-caliber breakout many expected perhaps never came, but Giolito is a durable mid-rotation arm who misses bats, limits walks and is a playoff-caliber arm.
Meanwhile, an already excellent Cleveland bullpen will now add two formidable arms in Lopez and Moore. Guardians relievers already rank fifth in the Majors with a 3.48 ERA, and the addition of two veterans just in time for rosters to expand will put them in the conversation for best relief corps in baseball.
Lopez, 29, is one of MLB’s hardest throwers, averaging a blistering 98.4 mph on his heater this year. He’s seen his previously strong command erode in 2023, walking a career-worst 12.6% of his opponents, but he’s also fanning a career-best 29.8% of hitters and boasting a career-high 14.1% swinging-strike rate. In 55 innings of relief, the former top prospect has a 3.93 ERA. Lopez is limiting hard contact at the best levels of his career as well and throwing his blazing fastball more often than ever before — generally at the expense of his third and fourth pitches (curveball, changeup). He’s primarily been a fastball/slider pitcher this year, and while the results have been a bit mixed, he’ll add a power arm capable of missing bats in droves to Terry Francona’s bullpen.
Moore, meanwhile, gives Francona a second lefty alongside Sam Hentges. The 34-year-old has found new life in his career since moving to a full-time relief role last year. He’s pitched 44 innings for the Angels in 2023, working to a 2.66 ERA with a career-high 28% strikeout rate and a very strong 6.9% walk rate.
Once the game’s consensus top pitching prospect, Moore impressed early on with the Rays before Tommy John surgery derailed his career. The left-hander never seemed to fully recover. After pitching to a 3.53 ERA from 2011-14, he missed most of the 2014-15 seasons recovering from that surgery, and posted a 5.26 ERA over his next 620 2/3 innings post-surgery.
Moore had a one-year stop in Japan along the way and pitched fairly well there, but it wasn’t until signing a minor league deal with Texas last year that he became a pitcher of note at the big league level again. Moore’s 1.95 ERA set the stage for a $7.55MM deal with the Angels this year, and he’s now logged a combined 2.21 ERA in his career’s second act as a late-inning reliever.
All in all, it’s a borderline unheard-of boon to a Major League pitching staff at this stage of a season — and all it will cost the Guardians is the collective $3.727MM that remain on the trio’s 2023 contracts. Each of Giolito, Moore and Lopez will be a free agent after the season, and the Guardians won’t receive any compensation if and when they enter free agency. They’re still a long shot to erase that five-game gap in the standings, particularly with the Twins still having series against the A’s, Rockies, White Sox, Mets and a now-depleted Angels team. But the Guardians were presented an opportunity to do everything they could to boost their slim playoff odds, and just like the Angels did one month ago, they took their shot.
The Best Fits For Matt Moore, Reynaldo López, Dominic Leone, José Cisnero
Yesterday saw a flurry of players placed on waivers, with the Angels making six players available to other clubs, while the Yankees, White Sox, Mets and Tigers also got in on the act. What those clubs all have in common is that their chances of competing this year are effectively gone, meaning that impending free agents that aren’t qualifying offer candidates have little use to them at this point. Since the trade deadline passed by a month ago, those clubs have no ability to exchange those players for any kind of younger talent, a player to be named later or even cash considerations. But by placing them on waivers, they could perhaps see another team put in a claim and take on the remainder of the salary commitments. For a claiming team, this is perhaps their best way of upgrading their roster after the deadline. As long as the player is acquired prior to September 1, they would be playoff eligible. That’s why all of this is happening now.
Before digging in, let’s clarify the process. This is different than the revocable kind of waivers that existed under the now-defunct August waiver trade system. These waivers are irrevocable, meaning that the players will be gone if any club puts in a claim. But the players have not been designated for assignment nor released. If they are not claimed, they can simply stay on the roster of their current club. Waiver priority will be in reverse order of the standings at the time of the claim and is not league-specific.
MLBTR is breaking it down by position, with this post focusing on the relievers. Let’s start with an overview of who is in that bucket.
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Matt Moore, Angels, LHP: $7.55MM salary, approximately $1.3M remaining
Moore, 34, had his ups and downs as a starter but he recently converted to relief work full-time and has been excellent since then. He had a 1.95 ERA with the Rangers last year and is at 2.30 with the Angels this year, coming into today’s action. In both seasons, he struck out more than 27% of opponents. His ground ball rate has fallen from last year, 43.9% to 34.3%, but he’s cut his walk rate from 12.5% to 7.1%. He has the highest salary of this group but has the best numbers and is the only lefty.
Reynaldo López, Angels, RHP: $3.625M salary, approximately $623K remaining
López, 29, was fairly mediocre as a starter but has been much better since his bullpen move, with a 2.76 ERA last year and 3.86 mark this year. He has bumped his strikeout rate this year from last year’s 24.8% rate to 30.7%, though his walk rate also jumped from 4.3% to 12.1%. He’s been the best of the righties on this list and his salary is about half of Moore’s.
Dominic Leone, Angels, RHP: $1.5MM salary, approximately $258K remaining
Leone, 31, has been fairly inconsistent in his career. He has three seasons with an ERA under 2.57 but also three above 6.32. This year, he’s in between at 4.64 while striking out 24% of opponents and walking 10.9%. He’s not having a dominant season but he had a 1.51 ERA as recently as 2021 and has the lightest salary of anyone on this list.
José Cisnero, Tigers, RHP: $2.2875MM salary, approximately $393K remaining
Cisnero, 34, had an incredible 1.08 ERA last year, though with some unsustainable elements in a .242 BABIP and 88.6% strand rate. This year, the wheel of fortune has spun him around the other way, with a .343 BABIP and 66% strand rate. That’s pushed his ERA to 5.36, a huge jump of more than four runs compared to last year. But his FIP, which takes those luck factors into account, went from 3.67 to 4.38. He has a 25.2% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate this year.
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Now that we’ve covered the process and the players available, who makes sense to put in a claim? We can start by crossing out all of the non-contending clubs. They have no need to pick up an impending free agent and his salary as they play out the string on a lost season.
Since the waiver order goes from the bottom of the standings towards the top, the fringe contenders will have a greater chance of a successful claim than teams at the top of the standings. Those teams will have to decide whether they want to add some salary to their books in order to obtain a marginal bullpen upgrade for the final month of the season.
The Padres have been on the edges of the playoff race all year but refused to sell off impending free agents like Blake Snell and Josh Hader and even added players like Garrett Cooper and Rich Hill. But they are still 7.5 games back of a Wild Card spot and their playoff odds are dwindling. The financials are also important as both Roster Resource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts have them between the third and fourth CBT threshold. As a third-time payor, that means they are paying a 95% tax on any cash they take on. Given their place in the standings and their financial ledger, it seems like a long shot they would be involved here.
The Red Sox love to cycle through players at the back of their bullpen, frequently making small trades or minor league signings for depth. But they are now 6.5 games back of a playoff spot with the Blue Jays in between. Speaking of the Jays, they are 3.5 games out of a playoff spot but their bullpen is already quite strong. Their relievers have a collective ERA of 3.48, the fourth-best mark in the majors. Rosters expand in a couple of days but they have Chad Green rehabbing and nearing a return from last year’s Tommy John surgery.
The Marlins are three games back of a playoff spot and will certainly be motivated to gain ground, having not made the playoffs in a full season since 2003. Their bullpen has been shaky of late, especially with deadline acquisition David Robertson posting a 7.20 ERA since coming over from the Mets and getting bumped from the closer’s role. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the club is expected to put in a claim on at least one of the Angels’ relievers, though the typically-frugal club might be hesitant to take on some of the larger salaries listed above.
The Braves are last in the waiver priority list and already have one of the best bullpens in the league, making it less likely they will grab someone from this group. The Mariners have enough bullpen depth that they could flip Paul Sewald prior to the deadline and still thrive. The Phillies already have a strong bullpen and are in the second CBT tier and set to be a second-time payor.
As for the clubs that make good sense, there are plenty, as just about any contender could squeeze in a bullpen upgrade from a pure roster construction point of view. The Rangers, Astros, Cubs, Giants, Reds, Diamondbacks, Twins, Brewers, Orioles, Rays and Dodgers are each in postseason position or close to it, with another reliever being a sensible add.
The Rangers were leading their division for much of the year but have recently slid and are now in a cutthroat battle with the Astros and Mariners, with a few recent bullpen meltdowns part of the problem. They are already over the CBT but they have shown plenty of willingness to be aggressive in recent years. The Astros have a strong bullpen but it’s all right-handed, making Moore in particular a logical fit.
The Cubs love to build their bullpen via minor league deals and waiver claims, meaning they are surely intrigued. But Roster Resource and Cot’s have their CBT figure around $228MM, just a bit under the $233MM base threshold. Assuming those estimates are correct, they still have a bit of wiggle room, though those aren’t official. The Giants are one of the most creative clubs at patching together an improvised staff and could fit any of these guys into their budget if they are intrigued.
The Reds have a dynamic position player mix but a flimsy pitching staff that could use any help it can find. The Diamondbacks have a collective bullpen ERA of 4.71 that places them 25th in the majors. They added Sewald at the deadline but there’s room for further upgrades. The Twins’ bullpen is middle-of-the-pack and they are almost a lock for a playoff spot at this point, giving them incentive to further bolster the staff for October. The Brewers have a decent bullpen but have struggled to find second reliable lefty alongside Hoby Milner, which could perhaps lead to them claiming Moore.
The O’s have had a good relief group overall but it’s been a top-heavy unit headlined by Félix Bautista, who now has an injury of some sort to his UCL. The Rays have dealt with a mountain of injuries this year and aren’t shy about cycling through arms in their bullpen throughout the year. The Dodgers have been similarly bit by the injury bug, though these clubs are towards the back of the waiver line and will have to settle for the arms that the others pass on.
Angels Place Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, Reynaldo López, Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk On Waivers
In a stunning development, the Angels have waved the white flag on their season, placing starter Lucas Giolito, relievers Matt Moore and Reynaldo López, and outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Randal Grichuk on waivers, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. Each player is an impending free agent and the Angels are apparently hoping to save some money by having some or all of them claimed off waivers while simultaneously allowing the players to join playoff contenders before the September 1 cutoff. Dominic Leone is also on the list, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
The Halos also placed starter Tyler Anderson on waivers last week, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter). He went unclaimed and elected to stick with the Halos. That no one took Anderson on is hardly a surprise. He’s only in the first season of a three-year, $39MM free agent contract that hasn’t gone well in year one. In 117 2/3 innings, the veteran southpaw has a 5.35 ERA.
The Angels have been making a strong push to contend in recent years, trying to put a competitive ballclub around their superstars Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. Part of their offseason upgrades included signing Moore and trading for Renfroe. The club hovered around contention through the trade deadline, deciding to hang onto Ohtani as well as making further additions, including Giolito, López and Grichuk.
Unfortunately, just about everything has gone wrong in the month of August, with the club having posted a record of 7-18 so far this month. As if that weren’t enough, Ohtani was diagnosed with a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament of his throwing elbow, which will prevent him from pitching again this season. Trout, meanwhile, attempted to return from his hamate surgery despite still being sore but was in too much pain to continue and landed right back on the IL.
This brutal month has pushed the Angels’ record to 63-69, which leaves them 11.5 games back of a playoff spot. Calculations from both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus give the club no hope of coming back, making this a lost season. All six of the players reportedly on waivers are impending free agents, meaning they have no real use to the Angels now. The only player of the bunch that would warrant a qualifying offer, allowing the Angels to recoup draft pick compensation, would be Giolito but he’s ineligible to receive one since he was traded midseason.
Since the trade deadline passed four weeks ago, there’s no way for the Angels to exchange any of those players for any kind of future value. But by putting them on waivers, they at least give themselves a chance of saving some money. Giolito is making $10.4MM this year, without about $1.9MM left to be paid out. For Renfroe, those figures are $11.9MM and $2.18MM. For Moore, $7.55M and $1.38MM. López, $3.625MM and $633K. Leone is $1.5MM and $275K. Grichuk’s case is slightly more complicated since he’s making $9.33MM this year as part of the extension he signed with the Blue Jays, though that club is eating $4.33MM of that while the Rockies also sent some cash considerations is to the Angels when trading them Grichuk and C.J. Cron. There’s about $1.71MM left to be paid out though a claiming team wouldn’t be responsible for all of it.
Beyond the strict cash savings, dumping some salary will have luxury tax implications for the Angels. Roster Resource calculates the club’s competitive balance tax figure at $234.4MM, just $1.4MM over the base threshold of $233MM. Cot’s Baseball Contracts has them even farther over at $241.7MM. Both of those numbers are unofficial but highlight that the club is likely over the line by a small amount. The Angels are sure to make Ohtani a qualifying offer at season’s end and would receive draft pick compensation if he signed elsewhere. That compensation would be a pick just after the fourth round if they are a CBT payor but would move to just before the third round if they can dip below. That would roughly move the draft pick from around the 140th pick to the 75-80 range. Being a repeat payor also has escalating penalties, so avoiding paying the tax now could benefit the club if they decide to spend aggressively again next year.
In prior seasons, the July trade deadline was followed by a second deadline in August, though the latter portion required players to clear revocable waivers before being dealt. In 2019, MLB and the MLBPA agreed to a single deadline, with no trades allowed at all after the first deadline. There’s no longer any way for a club to make deals at this part of the calendar but players are still playoff eligible if they join an organization prior to September 1. That means they may find interest on the waiver wire, so long as the claiming club is willing to take on the salary of the player in question.
The waiver order goes in reverse order of standings, regardless of league. The previous August waiver trade system used to be league-specific but that’s no longer in place. As of today, the Athletics would have first dibs on any of these players, followed by the Royals, then the Rockies and so on, simply going from worst record to best, regardless of league. Of course, there’s little reason for those clubs out of contention to claim an impending free agent and take on their salary commitments. The claims are more likely to be made by clubs still hoping to make the playoffs, with those with worse records having a better chance of a successful claim than those at the top of the standings.
This will lead to some interesting calculations in the days to come. Many contending clubs have already spent the majority of the money they had allotted for the season, but will have to decide on whether it’s worthwhile to suddenly add another $1.9MM just for one month of Giolito to help with a stretch run, for example. He’s been inconsistent since joining the Angels but had a 3.79 ERA for the White Sox prior to the deal and has a longer track record of success, with a 3.86 ERA from 2019 to 2022.
Moore made a transition to the bullpen in recent years with excellent results, with a 1.95 ERA last year and 2.30 ERA this year. López is fairly similar, having gone from a fairly mediocre starter earlier in his career to effective reliever, including a 3.86 ERA this year. Renfroe’s production has been up-and-down, with a .240/.300/.480 batting line in his career but a lesser .239/.300/.425 showing this year. Grichuk is having another season with his blend of power but a subpar walk rate, slashing .261/.317/.435. Leone has struggled with control but has generally posted above-average strikeout rates.
For the players, they likely aren’t thrilled about being subject to the whims of the waiver wire, especially the ones who only just became Angels recently. But they will at least likely find themselves moving from a sinking ship to a contender in the coming days, giving them a chance to compete in a playoff race and perhaps get into the postseason.
As for the clubs considering a claim, this will be their best chance to bolster their rosters for the final month of the season, now that the deadline is long gone. It’s also possible that a new precedent has been set for the end of August, as it’s not just the Angels that have taken this tack. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has reported that Carlos Carrasco of the Mets, Mike Clevinger of the White Sox and José Cisnero of the Tigers have also been placed on waivers, while Erik Boland of Newsday first reported that Harrison Bader of the Yankees is also on the list.
Though the moves make some sense for the Angels, it’s undoubtedly a frustrating low point as the attempts to contend have repeatedly failed. They gave up several notable prospects to acquire some of these players just a few weeks ago and are now trying to give them away for little more than cost savings. They are now sure to finish the season without having made the playoffs since 2014 and could potentially watch Ohtani sign with a new club this winter.
Angels Designate Tucker Davidson For Assignment
The Angels have designated left-hander Tucker Davidson for assignment, per Sam Blum of The Athletic, between games of today’s double-header. His roster spot will go Reynaldo López, who has joined the team after being acquired alongside Lucas Giolito last night.
Davidson, 27, was a prospect of note when with Atlanta, with Baseball America considering him one of their top 30 prospects in five straight years starting in 2018. He got some brief stints with their big league club before coming over to the Angels in last year’s Raisel Iglesias trade. He made eight starts for the Halos after that deal last year but posted an ERA of 6.87 in those.
The southpaw was a candidate for the club’s rotation coming into this year but was nudged out by Griffin Canning. That pushed the out-of-options Davidson into the bullpen, where he’s thrown 31 2/3 innings over 18 appearances with a 6.54 ERA. It’s possible he has deserved better, as he’s struck out 20.9% of opponents, walked just 7.4% and kept the ball on the ground at a 47.1% clip. His 3.38 FIP and 3.95 SIERA are much nicer, with his .412 batting average on balls in play and 59% strand rate likely pushing some more runs across the board.
Deserved or not, the results haven’t been great and the Angels can’t option him to the minors, leading to Davidson’s designation for assignment. They will now have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers. His results at the big league level haven’t been great but he’s not too far removed from being a notable starting pitching prospect and is still young and controllable through 2027. That could lead to some interest, perhaps from a rebuilding club with the ability to give him some rope to try to get back on track.
Looking back to the Iglesias trade, it now seems even more likely to go down as a mere salary dump for the Halos, who moved the three-plus years remaining on his deal. They got back Davidson and Jesse Chavez, with the Angels releasing the latter after less than a month.
Angels Acquire Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez
The Angels are pushing the chips in. The Halos swung a late-night trade for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López from the White Sox, the teams announced. Prospects Edgar Quero and Ky Bush are going back to Chicago.
Los Angeles declared themselves buyers this evening when they formally took Shohei Ohtani off the trade market. Once they committed to making a push in Ohtani’s final season of club control, there was little reason not to act boldly. They’ve done just that, surrendering two of their top prospects for the top rental starter available and a relief upgrade.
Ironically, Giolito and López both landed with the White Sox in the same trade nearly seven years ago. Both had debuted with the Nationals in 2016 before being included in the Adam Eaton package during that year’s Winter Meetings. They’ve spent the past six-plus seasons on Chicago’s South Side.
Giolito has developed into the more valuable of the duo. After a disastrous 2018 season, the Southern California native blossomed into an upper mid-rotation starter. He has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in four of the past five years, including a 3.79 mark through 121 frames this season.
He has backed up that solid run prevention with above-average peripherals. Giolito is striking out 25.8% of opponents against an 8.3% walk rate. He’s generating swinging strikes on 11.9% of his offerings. It’s a third consecutive season in which he’s been above-average across the board.
Giolito hasn’t quite developed into the ace it seemed he might become when he finished in the top 10 in Cy Young balloting in 2019-20. His average fastball speed is down a tick from those peak seasons, and he’s lost a few whiffs on each of his offerings. Still, the 29-year-old is a clear playoff caliber starter. He averages just under six innings per start while holding opponents to a .232/.301/.430 batting line. Giolito is effective against hitters of either handedness and has essentially avoided any major injuries in his MLB career.
That kind of durability and effectiveness should be a major boost to a Halos’ rotation that entered play Wednesday ranked 20th in the majors in ERA. Ohtani is the one pitcher allowing fewer than four earned runs per nine on the season. Reid Detmers has a 4.38 ERA but a strikeout rate north of 29% that suggests he fits well in the middle of a rotation. Patrick Sandoval and Griffin Canning have been fine back-end arms. Tyler Anderson has underperformed in the first season of a three-year deal, working to a 5.18 ERA. He slots sixth in the Halos’ six-man starting staff, while Giolito’s addition should firmly push Jaime Barria into long relief if the rest of the group stays healthy.
Barria has been more effective out of the bullpen than when pressed into rotation work. Giolito’s acquisition indirectly upgrades the relief corps in that regard, while the addition of López helps the bullpen in a more straightforward way.
The 29-year-old righty moved to relief for good by the start of the 2022 season. He was excellent in that role last year, pitching to a 2.76 ERA across 65 1/3 frames. It has been more of a mixed bag in 2023. López carries a 4.29 ERA in 42 innings. His walks have jumped from a minuscule 4.3% clip last year to a concerning 12.4% rate.
However, the uptick in free passes has been paired with a jump in whiffs. López has punched out a career-best 29.2% of batters faced. He’s picking up swinging strikes on 13.4% of his offerings while averaging 98.3 MPH on his heater and 87.9 MPH on the slider. López is a high-octane arm to pair with Matt Moore as setup options in front of closer Carlos Estévez. The Halos could look for additional ways of bolstering the middle innings mix between now and the August 1 trade deadline.
Both Giolito and López are firmly win-now pieces. Each is an impending free agent. Giolito is arguably the top non-Ohtani starter who’ll hit the open market. He’s on his way to exceeding nine figures. That always made it likely the White Sox — whose franchise-record expenditure is the $75MM Andrew Benintendi pact — would not re-sign him.
A midseason deal, while not unexpected, is a nice boost to Giolito’s eventual earning power. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a qualifying offer. Giolito would obviously have received one had the Sox retained him past the deadline, but he’ll now hit the open market without a signing team needing to forfeit draft capital.
The more immediate benefit, of course, is that both pitchers will get a chance to compete for a postseason spot. The Halos are four games out in the Wild Card race and seven back in the AL West. They’re clearly pushing the chips in for this season and figure to continue to be aggressive in the next few days. Adding corner infield help with Anthony Rendon and Brandon Drury on the shelf and Jared Walsh struggling enough to be optioned to Triple-A makes plenty of sense; to that end, the Halos have reportedly been in touch with the Nationals regarding third baseman Jeimer Candelario.
As part of that all-in mentality, the Angels relinquished a pair of their most talented prospects. Quero is one of the game’s top minor league backstops. The switch-hitter reached Double-A by his 20th birthday and is holding his own in a pitcher-friendly setting. Over 317 plate appearances, Quero owns a .245/.385/.332 batting line. He’s only hit three home runs but is walking at a massive 17% clip while striking out just 16.7% of the time.
That kind of plate discipline is exceptionally rare for a hitter so young. The Cuban-born backstop is the sport’s #61 overall prospect at FanGraphs and 85th at Baseball America. Scouting reports predictably rave about his advanced offensive skills and suggest he has a good chance to be a regular in the long term.
The Halos already have a potential catcher of the future in Logan O’Hoppe. Acquired from the Phillies last summer, O’Hoppe has been limited to 21 big league contests because of a labrum tear in his shoulder. He’s controllable for five seasons beyond this one, though, perhaps making Quero a little more expendable to the organization.
Chicago had no such long-term answer behind the dish. Yasmani Grandal is headed to free agency on the heels of a fine but unexceptional year. It’s probably unreasonable to expect Quero to immediately succeed Grandal as the #1 backstop next season, but it doesn’t seem out of the question he could reach the majors at some point in 2024. That upper minors proximity is surely appealing to a Chicago team reloading for next year.
Bush, a 23-year-old southpaw, was also at Double-A. A second-round pick out of St. Mary’s in 2021, he ranked ninth among Angels’ prospects in Eric Longenhagen’s recent organizational rankings at FanGraphs. Both Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (on Twitter) suggest the 6’6″ hurler has a chance to stick as a starter and praise his slider, though Longenhagen raises concerns about his low-90s fastball. Bush has been a little homer-prone in his first six Double-A starts but is striking out nearly 30% of opponents there.
It’s a strong return for a pair of impending free agents, with Quero the clear headliner. Yet it’s understandable the Angels would part with those players (particularly with O’Hoppe in the fold) to make a push this season. Their aggressiveness extends beyond the prospect capital, as the trade officially pushed them into luxury tax territory.
The Halos were right around the $233MM competitive balance tax threshold before the move. They’re taking on what remains of the respective $10.4MM and $3.625MM arbitration salaries for Giolito and López. That’s around $3.75MM on Giolito and $1.31MM on López. That’ll push their estimated CBT figure to around $238MM pending future additions.
It’s clear owner Arte Moreno will sign off on paying the tax for the first time. The financial penalties of doing so are rather minimal. As a first-time payor, they’ll pay a 20% tax on expenditures between $233MM and $253MM. The tax money they’re taking on with today’s trade is just over $1MM, a marginal amount in comparison to the team’s overall spending.
More notably, surpassing the CBT reduces the draft compensation they’d receive if they lose a qualified free agent. Teams that pay the luxury tax receive a compensation pick after the fourth round if a player rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere. Clubs that stay below the threshold get a compensatory choice between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round.
Ohtani will obviously reject a QO. If the Angels don’t re-sign him, going past the CBT means they’re moving the draft compensation back a couple rounds. That’s a risk worth taking to maximize the chances of getting to the playoffs in Ohtani’s final season of arbitration. The Angels are all-in, and while this’ll probably be their biggest move of deadline season, there’s no reason to think it’s their last.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Angels and White Sox were finalizing a trade of Giolito and López for Quero and Bush.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.