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Rhys Hoskins Unlikely To Return Before End Of Regular Season

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The Phillies are fighting for their playoff lives, but they’ll have to do so without one of their best hitters, as manager Joe Girardi said Wednesday that first baseman Rhys Hoskins is a long shot to return before the regular season draws to a close (Twitter link via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). Hoskins, out with a UCL injury in his non-throwing arm, took some dry swings today but isn’t yet ready to face live pitching.

It’s been a rough go of it on the injury front for the Phillies. Star catcher J.T. Realmuto was recently sidelined for more than a week due to hip trouble, and Bryce Harper has dealt with back discomfort in recent weeks. Both Harper and Realmuto are in tonight’s lineup and playing at less than 100 percent, per Girardi, which will likely be the case through season’s end. Harper is serving as the DH. Realmuto is at first base.

Hoskins, 27, has bounced back from a last year’s down season (by his standards). Through 185 plate appearances in 2020, he’s batted .245/.384/.503 with 10 homers, nine doubles and a hefty 15.7 percent walk rate. His output at the plate has been 39 percent better than that of a league-average hitter by measure of wRC+.

The Phillies aren’t dead in the water yet, but a four-game losing streak — capped by another bullpen meltdown and a walk-off loss against the Nats last night — hasn’t helped their chances. But at 27-29, the Phils are only a game back in the loss column to the three teams ahead of them in playoff standings (Cincinnati, Milwaukee and San Francisco. FanGraphs still gives them a one in three chance of making the postseason, but they’ll need to right the ship in a hurry — and likely see some of those previously mentioned competitors stumble — to secure their spot.

Injury Notes: JV, McCullers, Hoskins, Moronta, Chafin

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Justin Verlander has continued to progress in his late-season comeback effort, as Jake Kaplan of The Athletic writes. The veteran hurler isn’t yet ready to return to the Astros rotation, of course, but he has now faced live hitters in a two-inning sim game. It’s still unclear how things will progress from here. The club would surely like to get JV a regular-season appearance before the season concludes, but it’s also possible he’d make his first start in the postseason. Meanwhile, the ’Stros have now welcomed back fellow right-hander Lance McCullers from his own stay on the injured list, as Mark Berman of FOX 26 was among those to tweet. It turned out to be a brief stay for McCullers, who had a procedure to relieve neck nerve irritation. He’ll look to improve upon a 5.79 ERA through his first eight outings.

Here are some more injury notes from around the league …

  • Phillies first bagger Rhys Hoskins is still in limbo as he deals with an elbow/foream issue. As Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports on Twitter, the burly slugger is holding out hope of a return even while the threat of a season-ending surgery hangs over his head. When and how this situation will be resolved isn’t yet clear. Losing Hoskins would represent a big dent to the Phils’ lineup. He has to this point of the season turned in a productive .245/.384/.503 slash line with ten long balls.
  • It seems the Giants could yet get a bullpen boost from right-hander Reyes Moronta. He’s ready for competitive mound action at the team’s alternate training site, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area notes on Twitter. Moronta has been building up after undergoing shoulder surgery, so the club won’t want to push him too hard. But it’s enticing to imagine adding another postseason weapon, particularly since Moronta is said to be showing typically strong velocity. Jeff Samardzija is also nearing readiness, with a five-inning set scheduled. It’s unclear what role may await for the veteran once he’s deemed a full go. He coughed up 15 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings over his first three starts on the year.
  • The Cubs haven’t yet received a contribution from recently acquired southpaw Andrew Chafin, but that may soon change. The 30-year-old reliever, who was nursing a finger sprain when he was dealt at the trade deadline, is close enough that he could be activated over the next few days, skipper David Ross indicated to reporters including Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (Twitter link). Chafin had struggled to open the year in Arizona, but he’d represent a notable addition to a bullpen that has had its share of issues, especially from the left side.

Phillies To Place Rhys Hoskins On 10-Day IL

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The Phillies will place first baseman Rhys Hoskins on the 10-day injured list with a left UCL injury, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports. In better news for the club, catcher J.T. Realmuto (hip flexor) will avoid the IL, while right-hander Zack Wheeler (finger) should return to the mound this week.

The Hoskins news continues a rough few days for the Phillies, who have dropped three in a row – including a 6-2 defeat to the Marlins on Monday. The 27-year-old Hoskins hasn’t played since Saturday, when he suffered a forearm injury, and it’s unclear whether he’ll be able to take the field again this season. Time’s running out in 2020 for him and the Phillies, who are an even 23-23 but are still in possession of a playoff spot in the National League.

If Philly does break its eight-year playoff drought this season, it’ll have Hoskins to thank to some extent. Although Hoskins is stuck in an 0-for-10 slump, he has slashed a rather effective .245/.384/.503 (138 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 185 plate appearances. That’ll be tough production for the Phillies to replace in the season’s final couple weeks, especially considering Hoskins has played almost every game at first for the team this base. Otherwise, only the now-gone Neil Walker and the historically light-hitting Phil Gosselin have lined up there for the Phillies.

Rhys Hoskins To Undergo MRI For Forearm Injury

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Rhys Hoskins sat out both games of the Phillies’ doubleheader with the Marlins today due to an “achy forearm,” as manager Joe Girardi described the problem to NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Corey Seidman and other reporters.  X-rays were negative on Hoskins’ forearm, though he will undergo an MRI perhaps as early as Monday.

This is the latest in a swarm of bad injury news that has hit the Phillies in just the last two days.  Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, Zack Wheeler, and Spencer Howard (the only one on the injured list for now) have all been sidelined with various issues, and the seriousness of any of these injuries has yet to be truly determined.

The good news in Hoskins’ case is that he told The Athletic’s Meghan Montemurro and other reporters that his forearm was already feeling better today after receiving some treatment, and (assuming the MRI is clean) hopefully can return to the lineup as early as Monday.  Hoskins said he suffered the injury while trying to make a catch in Saturday’s game.

The first baseman has been one of Philadelphia’s best hitters, batting .245/.384/.503 with 10 home runs over 185 plate appearances.  After bursting onto the scene in 2017, Hoskins’ hard-hit ball numbers had been on the decline in 2018-19, though Statcast indicates he is again making strong contact.  Hoskins’ 14.8% barrel rate puts him in the 92nd percentile of all players, while his .388 xwOBA puts him in the 90th percentile.  Mostly importantly, Hoskins is just about making the most of that contact, with a .376 xOBA only slightly below his xwOBA.  The slugger has also continued to capitalize on free passes, posting one of the league’s better walk rates for the second consecutive season.

The Battle Of Pennsylvania First Basemen

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It’s no secret that the majors’ two Pennsylvania-based teams possess a couple of the most powerful first basemen in the game. In the Phillies’ corner, there’s Rhys Hoskins. Meanwhile, the Pirates are fortunate enough to have Josh Bell manning the position. Both players are 27 years old and under club control for the next few seasons. But which of the two would you prefer on your team?

Let’s start with Hoskins, a 2014 fifth-round pick who burst on the scene as a rookie in 2017, when he only played in 50 games but still managed to wallop 18 home runs. Although Hoskins has come back to earth since then, he has still been more productive than your typical hitter. The right-handed slugger mashed 29 homers last year, and though his batting average was alarmingly low, his overall slash line (.226/.364/.454) placed him 10 percent above the average hitter by measure of OPS+ and 13 percent above by wRC+. Furthermore, Hoskins has been rather durable – he played in 153 games two years ago and 160 in 2019. He’s also under control for four more years, including one final pre-arb campaign (that’s if a season even happens in 2020).

Bell still has three years left before becoming a free agent – he’ll make a reasonable $4.8MM this season – and has been a similarly productive batter to Hoskins throughout his career. But the switch-hitting Bell, a 2011 second-rounder, truly came into his own last year – he slashed .277/.367/.569 (143 OPS+, 135 wRC+) and racked up 37 HRs over 613 trips to the plate. Also, it was the third straight year of at least 140-some games played for Bell, so he joins Hoskins as someone you can regularly count on to pencil into your lineup.

While Bell was undoubtedly the superior offensive producer a season ago, Hoskins has doubled his lifetime fWAR output over almost 400 fewer plate appearances (Hoskins is at 7.1 in 1,577 PA; Bell has put up 3.8 in 1,968 attempts). Notably, Hoskins has performed far better at first base, having accounted for minus-1 Defensive Runs Saved and a 3.9 Ultimate Zone rating to Bell’s minus-31 DRS and minus-17 UZR. However, despite Bell’s defensive issues, many teams would gladly plug his big bat into their lineup. The same goes for Hoskins. For the sake of this exercise, though, you can only choose one (and remember to consider team control for the two Scott Boras clients). Who’s your pick?

(Poll link for app users)

Rhys Hoskins or Josh Bell?
Bell 60.88% (3,134 votes)
Hoskins 39.12% (2,014 votes)
Total Votes: 5,148

Rhys Hoskins Undergoes X-Ray On Hand

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The Phillies staged one of the most memorable comebacks of the season Thursday, rallying from a 5-1 ninth-inning deficit against the Cubs to pull off a 7-5 victory. The game ended on a walk-off grand slam from outfielder Bryce Harper, with first baseman Rhys Hoskins among the players he knocked in. Hoskins got on base after taking a Pedro Strop pitch off the right hand, and it’s possible he suffered an injury in the process. The slugger underwent an X-ray on his hand afterward, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia was among those to report. Hoskins is optimistic he’ll be OK, but there’s no official word on his status yet.

Although Thursday was a resounding success for the Phillies, losing Hoskins would dampen enthusiasm in regards to their outlook. The club’s Harper-led triumph Thursday completed a three-game sweep of Chicago and raised Philadelphia’s record to 63-55. The Phillies are now just a game back of the Cubs for the National League’s second wild-card spot. Although Hoskins has been cold in August, the 26-year-old has still been one of the driving forces behind the Phillies’ solid record. Hoskins has batted .241/.381/.485 (125 wRC+) with 24 home runs and 2.4 fWAR across 532 plate appearances.

Along with posting quality production, Hoskins has been among the Phillies’ most durable players. To this point in the season, only two of the team’s other players – catcher J.T. Realmuto and third baseman Maikel Franco – have started games at first, and they’ve each done so just once. It’s unclear which Phillie would receive the bulk of the work at first in the event of a Hoskins injured list stint, but just-promoted veteran Logan Morrison seems like a strong bet.

Phillies Have Yet To Discuss Extensions With Realmuto, Hoskins

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The Phillies haven’t yet broached the subject of a contract extension with either catcher J.T. Realmuto or first baseman Rhys Hoskins, the two players told reporters (including Philly.com’s Scott Lauber and Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia).  The duo each expressed interest in remaining with the Phillies over the long term, and neither seemed perturbed by a lack of negotiations.

Realmuto can become a free agent after the 2020 season, though despite mutual interest in an extension from both the catcher and the team, Lauber writes that “neither side feels urgency to rush into anything” since Realmuto only joined the Phillies in February.  It stands to reason that the Phils will wait until the winter to really delve into contract talks, though obviously another All-Star caliber season from Realmuto will only raise his asking price.  There’s even less of a rush to extend Hoskins, as the slugging first baseman is under team control through the 2023 season and isn’t even arbitration-eligible until the 2020-21 offseason.

Looming over this whole discussion, of course, is the state of free agency, as the last two offseasons of slowed activity have resulted in an incredible number of contract extensions signed over the last two months.  The Phillies themselves have already been a part of that action, inking Aaron Nola to a four-year extension worth $45MM in guaranteed money.  The extension flurry has seen both established stars (like Realmuto) and younger pre-arb players (like Hoskins) taking a payday now rather than test what has become an increasingly unfriendly free agent market to veteran players.

Realmuto will turn 30 in March 2021, while Hoskins will turn 31 prior to the 2024 season.  In Hoskins’ case, he stands to make some solid money during his arbitration years if he continues to hit, as the arb process rewards traditional counting stats like home runs and RBI.  A pricey multi-year deal, however, could be harder to come by unless the next collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the players’ union (the current deal expires in December 2021) changes the free agent climate.

“I think all of us players have noticed [what’s happened in free agency],” Hoskins said.  “Obviously we hope stuff like that flips by the time that we get there. I don’t know if it will ever get back to where it was, but hopefully it starts trending in the opposite direction of where it is right now. I think a lot of those questions are going to be answered after [2021].”

According to Salisbury, the Phillies previously tried to extend Hoskins prior to the 2017 season, before he had even made his Major League debut.  Philadelphia used a similar approach with another top prospect in Scott Kingery last year, signing Kingery to a six-year, $24MM deal that gave the Phils club options over three of Kingery’s free agent years.

Hoskins’ camp declined those earlier offers, though Hoskins has since changed representation to the Boras Corporation.  As much as Scott Boras is known for taking his clients into the open market, Hoskins reiterated that his agent is perfectly willing to negotiate extensions if they make sense for the player.  It should be noted that Boras has a number of noteworthy extensions on his record, including Xander Bogaerts’ new pact with the Red Sox from just a couple of weeks ago.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Greinke, Santana, Angels, Harper, Orioles, Machado

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The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggests teams in need of pitching should take a second look at Diamondbacks ace Zack Greinke. With Arizona set to lose Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock to free agency, the Dbacks are, unwittingly maybe, staring down a period of transition. The $34.8MM the 35-year-old Greinke is owed yearly might seem like a bitter pill to swallow, but there are ways of diverting a portion of that cost to make the contract palatable. The Rangers and Diamondbacks, for instance, reportedly discussed a Greinke deal last offseason wherein the Rangers would have offset the AAV by sending Shin-Soo Choo the other way. Another strategy to offset that cost is straight cash. However it’s done, getting Greinke’s AAV down to the range of $20MM to $25MM might make him an attractive, shorter-term alternative to a free agent like Dallas Keuchel on a five-year pact, given that Greinke is now essentially on a three-year deal. So long as he’s priced appropriately, the Diamondbacks could move him. Whether or not they should depends on the cost. Be sure to check out the entire article here (subscription link), but for now, here are more snippets from Rosenthal on high-priced veterans from around the league…

  • Unlike the Dbacks with Greinke, the Mariners are likely stuck with their veterans, given the sticker price of right-hander Felix Hernandez, third baseman Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano. In the context of the Greinke conversation, moving Cano almost seems plausible, as he’s only a year older than Greinke and owed almost $15MM less per season, but whereas Greinke isn’t much diminished from peak form, Cano is not long removed from an 80-game suspension, signed for two years longer and likely to move down the defensive hierarchy next season, from second base to either first or designated hitter.
  • Rosenthal quotes a rival executive who says the Phillies are “shopping the hell” out of first baseman Carlos Santana. If they could move off the two years and more than $35MM owed to Santana, the Phils would love to move Rhys Hoskins back to first, since he recorded an unsightly -24 DRS in left field last season. Adam Dunn is the only left fielder to record less defensive runs saved in a single season since 2003, when Sports Info Solutions introduced the data. For Santana’s part, he’s been decent defensively at first over the last few seasons with the Indians and Phillies, even managing 1 DRS in 119 innings at third for the Phils last year. Still, he’s probably more of an asset to an American League team where he could cycle in and out of the designated hitter slot.
  • The Angels, as well, are looking to shed salary in the form of Kole Calhoun or Blake Parker. Matt Shoemaker, after missing most of last season, is a non-tender candidate as well. The Angels are wary of dipping into their farm system to improve the major-league squad, as they’ve worked hard to rebuild their prospect pool. Still, they have a relatively desperate need for pitching and are, therefore, looking to shed salary where they can.
  • Rosenthal quotes an anonymous agent with an interesting take on the Bryce Harper saga in Washington. The agent theorizes that GM Mike Rizzo is largely extricating himself from the process moving forward, instead moving aggressively to fill the Nationals’ other needs and leaving ownership to make the final verdict on Harper. Of course, creating a better baseball situation in Washington surely won’t hurt in the pursuit of Harper either.
  • Also in Washington, the Nats could see a boost to their finances if their dispute with the Orioles over rights fees from the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN) is settled, as expected, by MLB’s internal arbitration panel. An appeals process could still be at hand, but baseball officials hope both teams will live with whatever verdict comes down from the Revenue Sharing Definition Committee, which consists of Brewers owner Mark Attanasio, Mariners CEO Kevin Mather and Toronto CEO Mark Shapiro. In dispute is over $200MM in rights fees from 2012 to 2016. If the hearing goes as expected, the Nats will see an influx of cash that should grant them future payroll flexibility. Before you ask – no, the matter will not likely be settled in time to aid in the wooing of Harper.
  • For the Orioles part in the above dispute, Rosenthal suggests it wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Orioles’ next front office hires to include someone in good standing with the MLB office. Along with the more explicit organizational issues, Baltimore has also apparently had a poor relationship with the league office as well. A portion of the discord stems from the above dispute with the Nationals over rights fees for the Orioles’ owned MASN, but there’s also suspicions that Camden Yards has somewhat unfairly been passed over for the All-Star game in recent years. Camden Yards was a forerunner for the way modern sports facility are built, but they have not hosted an All-Star game since its second year of existence in 1993. Other organizations have longer droughts in this regard, but the missed opportunity to honor the 25th anniversary of Camden Yards in 2017 still stings.
  • As for the free agent market’s other big fish, Rosenthal quotes the Athletic’s Jayson Stark who hears that the Yankees are doing more than their due diligence to get first-hand accounts of Manny Machado’s character. They likely won’t be disappointed by what they hear, as those close to Machado have nothing but good things to say, while recognizing the occasional on-field gaff.

NL East Notes: Hoskins, Phillies, Mets, Marlins

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Rhys Hoskins’ move from first base to left field in 2018 didn’t exactly prove to be smooth, as the young slugger turned in one of the worst statistical seasons of any outfielder in baseball (-24 Defensive Runs Saved, -19 Outs Above Average, -11.3 Ultimate Zone Rating). Hoskins has already spoken about a desire to continue to improve, though he did admit when asked by Matt Breen of Philly.com that he’d prefer to be back at first base in an ideal world. Hoskins emphasized that he’s told both GM Matt Klentak and manager Gabe Kapler that he’ll play wherever he’s asked but spoke about the comfort level he feels at first base as opposed to in the outfield.

In his season-end press conference, Klentak acknowledged that moving Hoskins back to first base is “something we’ve thought a lot about,” Breen writes, though clearly there are numerous moving parts in that scenario. The Phils experimented with Carlos Santana at third base in September, though he comes with his own defensive shortcomings there, and that shift would render Maikel Franco without a spot. Expected offseason pursuits of marquee free agents Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado also figure to factor into the calculus. Though there are dozens of roads the Phils could take to get there, Klentak stressed that “there is no question” that the team needs to improve its defense.

More from the division…

  • With the offseason upon the Phillies, the focus in Philadelphia will shift from Kapler to Klentak, writes Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer. It’ll be a pivotal winter for Klentak’s future in the organization, he notes, as there’ll be pressure to generate more success with this offseason’s group of free agents than there was with last year’s crop. Klentak himself spoke about the performance of last year’s group of free agents, noting that Jake Arrieta, Carlos Santana, Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter were fairly productive on the whole — especially relative to other free-agent signings throughout the league. Without improvement, Brookover, adds, the GM could find himself on the hot seat. It’s an interesting example of the importance of sequencing over the course of a given season; in a vacuum, a 14-win improvement for the Phillies looks like a clear victory. And had the team started poorly or even found a more evenly paced route to an 80-82 finish, the narrative would likely be different. Instead, their late collapse adds sizable pressure to improve even when the year-over-year win total has already generally trended in the right direction.
  • Braves assistant general manager Perry Minasian is of interest to the Mets as they continue to compile a list of GM candidates, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post, though there are not yet any firm indications that the Mets have asked permission to interview him. Puma adds that former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington is a “strong possibility” to receive an interview, as has previously been suggested, though the timing remains unclear. Initial interviews will be conducted by assistant GM John Ricco and COO Jeff Wilpon, Puma notes, with Fred Wilpon unlikely to be heavily involved in the process until finalists have been selected.
  • The 2019 season will have a different feel for the Marlins than the 2018 season, writes Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Namely, while the Fish were content to let some players develop at the big league level this past season, there will be more expectations for immediate results next season. Rule 5 picks Elieser Hernandez and Brett Graves will likely spend more time in the minors now that they can be optioned, he notes, while players who struggle (as Lewis Brinson did in the Majors this past season) might be sent back down for more seasoning as the team strives to improve its results. “Obviously, we did some things this year where it wasn’t necessary you had to produce to be here,” said manager Don Mattingly. “But moving forward I have the sense that’s going to change. If you don’t produce, it’s not going to be a year where we’ll let you keep developing. At some point, you’re going to have to produce.”

Phillies Notes: Santana, Franco, Hoskins, Eickhoff

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The Phillies have started Carlos Santana at third base 10 times down the stretch and received a total of 70 innings of play from him there, and Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia explores the possibility of Santana shifting to the hot corner on a full-time basis in 2019. Doing so would allow the Phils to move Rhys Hoskins from left field back to first base, dramatically improving the outfield defense. Santana, 32, tells Salisbury that he’s open to the idea, while manager Gabe Kapler adds that it’s something the Phils will evaluate after the season. Philadelphia’s expected run at Manny Machado figures to have an impact on their left-side infield alignment, and Salisbury speculates that the team could again explore the trade market for Maikel Franco this offseason.

Defensive metrics have actually given a favorable review to Santana’s minuscule sample of innings, but it still seems unlikely that he’d turn in quality results over a full season. I’d add, however, that he’d be replacing another below-average defender in Franco; if the Phillies believe the difference between Franco and Santana at third base is more or less negligible, then they could overwhelmingly bolster the rest of their defense by moving Hoskins to first base in favor of an average or better defender in left.

More out of Philly…

  • Speaking of Hoskins, the 25-year-old chatted with The Athletic’s Matt Gelb about his recent decision to hire agent Scott Boras (subscription required). Part of the thinking, per Hoskins, was actually about his desire to improve his defense in the outfield. Gelb notes that Boras has 10 trainers and a pair of fitness facilities, which appealed to Hoskins as he seeks to improve his performance in the outfield. “There’s only so many different drills you can do,” said Hoskins. “Jump rope, ladder, whatever. But some guys just have a different way of communicating that or they focus on different things within the movement.” He added that he heard “nothing but good things” from the players he spoke to about using Boras’ trainers. Gelb writes that Boras has expressed an openness to discussing a contract extension for Hoskins this offseason, though historically his clients have typically not gone that route.
  • It’s been an injury-ruined season for Jerad Eickhoff, but Kapler told reporters that he’s a candidate to start one of the final games of the season after rejoining the team as a reliever earlier this month (link via Matt Breen the Philadelphia Daily News). Eickhoff met with numerous specialists to evaluate nerve damage that was leading to numbness in his hands this summer and, at one point when doctors were having a difficult time making a diagnosis, wondered whether his career could be in jeopardy. “I don’t know if there’s a guy that the clubhouse pulls more for than Jerad Eickhoff,” said Kapler. “I think he’s pretty deeply cared for and he worked his butt off to get back to this position.”
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