Roki Sasaki

November 10: The previously unspecified arm injury that caused Sasaki to miss time in 2024 was reportedly “a bout with shoulder fatigue,” according to The Athletic’s Will Sammon. The young right-hander’s recent injury history is just about the only thing that could give potential suitors pause this offseason, but such a relatively minor ailment is unlikely to do much damage to his market.

November 9: Roki Sasaki is coming to MLB next season. His NPB team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, announced overnight (on X) that they intend to make their ace available via the posting system. They did not reveal a specific date when they’ll open the posting window. Sasaki will be represented by Wasserman, tweets Francys Romero.

The announcement opens one of the top storylines of the offseason. Sasaki, who turned 23 last week, is the best pitcher in Japan. He’s one of the most talented pitchers on the planet. It’s the second consecutive offseason in which MLB teams will compete for arguably NPB’s best pitcher. Unlike the Yoshinobu Yamamoto bidding, Sasaki’s earning power is capped at a few million dollars.

MLB classifies players who sign out of a foreign league before they turn 25 as amateurs. Those players can only sign a minor league contract and are subject to a hard-capped bonus limit. Whichever team signs Sasaki is allowed to add him to the MLB roster by Opening Day — he isn’t going to start the season in Triple-A even though his first contract will be a minor league deal — but he won’t be able to sign for huge money.

After he signs, Sasaki will be subject to the same six-year control window that applies to any player called up from the farm system. He’ll play the next three seasons on roughly league minimum salaries before going through arbitration three times. Sasaki would not return to the open market until the 2030-31 offseason. He would be eligible to sign an extension during his team control window, but MLB has the ability to block a contract that it deems a circumvention of the bonus pool limits. There’s no set criteria for what might cause MLB to intervene, but it’s safe to say that Sasaki won’t be signing a massive extension within a few weeks of agreeing to a modest signing bonus.

Yamamoto waited until his 25th birthday to avoid the bonus limit. That freed him to sign with the Dodgers for $325MM, the largest guarantee for a pitcher in history. Sasaki didn’t want to follow that path. He instead prioritized making the move to MLB as quickly as possible, though that required the cooperation of the Marines.

NPB players are not eligible for international free agency until they’ve accrued nine years of service time. Sasaki has pitched at Japan’s highest level for four years. He unsuccessfully pushed for the Marines to post him for MLB teams last offseason. He gets his wish this time around. There’s been speculation that Sasaki’s contract might’ve contained some kind of clause to force the team’s hand.

Whether out of contractual obligation or simply to honor the player’s wishes, the Marines will lose their ace for essentially nothing. The posting agreement between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball ties the NPB team’s compensation to the value of the free agent contract. An MLB team signing a posted player pays a fee to the Japanese team on top of what goes to the player. The fee is a fixed amount calculated as 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending.

Yamamoto’s deal came with a windfall for his former team, the Orix Buffaloes. The Dodgers paid the Buffaloes $50.625MM to release him from his contract. The Marines will get a fraction of that. If Sasaki signs for $10MM — and there’s a decent chance his bonus will land below that — the team would receive a $2MM posting fee.

The Marines’ loss will be an MLB team’s gain. Evaluators project Sasaki as a top-of-the-rotation starter. He can push into the triple digits with his fastball and has a potentially lethal splitter. His fastball lost a bit of life this past season, though the pitch still sits in the upper 90s. Marquee’s Lance Brozdowski reports (YouTube link) that Sasaki averaged 97.1 MPH this year after sitting at 99 MPH in ’23. That’s well above average for an MLB starter despite trending in the wrong direction.

While the fastball velocity is eye-catching, evaluators suggest his low-90s splitter is his best pitch. He deploys a slider as his top breaking ball, and while that’s not as well regarded as the fastball-splitter combination, it’s a potential above-average offering. The Athletic’s Eno Sarris broke down Sasaki’s pitch mix in greater detail this week.

Writing for Baseball America in 2023, Kyle Glaser projected Sasaki as an ace who’d warrant the first overall pick if he were in the domestic amateur draft. Glaser ranked Sasaki as the most talented non-MLB player in the ’23 World Baseball Classic, one spot ahead of Yamamoto. Sasaki struck out 11 hitters over 7 2/3 innings of four-run ball for Japan’s championship team.

The 6’2″ hurler has posted dominant numbers on a rate basis in NPB. He has a career 2.10 earned run average in nearly 400 innings. This year’s 2.35 ERA was the highest of any of his four seasons. In a relative down year, Sasaki punched out nearly 29% of batters faced against a manageable 7.1% walk percentage.

To the extent there’s a knock against Sasaki, it’s his workload. He has yet to reach 130 innings in any season. He was limited to 111 frames this year and missed time midseason due to an unspecified injury in his throwing arm. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that he also suffered a torn oblique. The injury history is a concern when paired with his slight velocity dip, but it’s unlikely to dissuade teams from an all-out recruitment. The upside of getting a potential top-of-the-rotation arm far outweighs the minimal cost.

Passan writes that the Marines have not settled on a date when they’ll open the posting window. Whenever they officially post him, Sasaki has 45 days to decide where to sign. It’s possible that’ll carry well into the 2025 calendar. Major League Baseball’s signing periods for international amateurs run between January 15 and December 15 every year. Teams commit the vast majority of that money on 1/15, finalizing contracts that have been verbally agreed upon well in advance.

Sasaki may prefer to wait until the opening of next year’s signing window. Teams already have verbal agreements with amateur players — most of whom are signing out of Latin America at age 16 — for their 2025 bonus window. Clubs could renege on some of those unofficial agreements to reallocate money for Sasaki. Teams are also allowed to trade for international signing bonus space up to a point. A team can acquire up to 75% of its initial bonus pool allotment. A club that knows it won’t have a chance to land Sasaki may be willing to trade most of its bonus space to a team in pursuit of the Japanese star in exchange for other prospects or MLB help.

In April, Baseball America’s Ben Badler published a list of teams’ bonus allotments for the ’25 signing period. The Reds, Tigers, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, A’s, Mariners and Rays have the largest pools at $7.5555MM each. If one of those teams acquired another 75% via trade and devoted the entire allotment to Sasaki, his maximum signing bonus would be around $13.22MM.

He’ll almost certainly sign for far less. If Sasaki were prioritizing money, he’d have waited until he turned 25 and sought a deal that rivaled or beat Yamamoto’s. As was the case with Shohei Ohtani in 2017, Sasaki is leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table in the short term to get to MLB right away. All 30 teams will be on more or less even footing financially. His free agency will be about teams’ competitive outlooks, pitching development plans and geographic preferences.

There’s already ample speculation about the Dodgers as a landing spot. They’re certainly well positioned from a competitive and geographic perspective. Financial might isn’t a direct consideration for this free agent, though, and any team could fit Sasaki into the budget if he were genuinely open to all offers.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Japanese pitching phenom Roki Sasaki had plenty of eyes on him this past offseason when it was reported that he had asked to be posted for major league clubs ahead of his age-22 campaign, and while he ultimately remained with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chiba Lotte Marines for the 2024 campaign, that’s done little to quell speculation about his future in stateside baseball. That speculation may not be entirely unfounded, Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post reported this morning that MLB clubs are “planning” for the possibility that Sasaki is posted during the 2024-25 offseason. Neither Sasaki nor the Marines have confirmed the youngster’s plans for the future.

Sasaki is generally viewed as the biggest rising star in Japanese baseball today. MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski discussed Sasaki back in September amid his return from an oblique issue that had sidelined him for most of the second half, noting his triple-digit velocity was present even in his abbreviated three-inning return to the league’s highest level. That outing contributed to a dominant overall line in NPB play last year, as Sasaki pitched to a 1.78 ERA while striking out a whopping 39.1% of batters faced in 91 innings of work.

As noted by both Podziewski and Janes, durability appears to be the only box left for Sasaki to check in the Pacific League, where he sports a career ERA of 2.03 across 337 1/3 innings of work. Sasaki’s career-high innings total as a professional to this point in his career stands at just 129 1/3, well below the 150-170 inning range that’s standard for front-of-the-rotation arms in Japan. For example, Dodgers right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw 171 innings between all levels of NPB play during his final season in Japan last year, while Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga completed 159 frames. Sasaki is currently on pace to reach that threshold this season, with a 2.18 ERA in 53 1/3 innings of work across eight starts while Janes notes that the righty threw 119 pitches in a start last week without issue.

While Sasaki and the Marines have been fairly tight-lipped about the right-hander’s future plans, Janes notes that people around Sasaki, including teammate and former big leaguer Gregory Polanco, have made it clear the right-hander is excited to make the jump to the majors. Whether that move will come following the 2024 campaign remains to be seen, although it’s worth noting that Janes suggests that some teams are keeping a portion of their international bonus pool available in case Sasaki is posted.

As a player under the age of 25, Sasaki would not be eligible for the typical posting process that Yamamoto and Imanaga both participated in this past offseason, where there are no limitations placed on the contract the player can sign. Instead, Sasaki would be considered an international amateur, who can only be offered a rookie contract in the majors along with a signing bonus that comes out of the signing club’s international bonus pool.

Given the substantial decrease in financial compensation available for both player and team if an NPB player is posted before his 25th birthday, it’s extremely rare for a player to take that avenue; to this point, Shohei Ohtani is the only player to make the jump from NPB to MLB using this method rather than arriving in the majors via the posting system or free agency. For Sasaki to follow in his footsteps, Lotte would have to agree to post the right-hander. Janes notes that one way a player could secure an early posting from his club is by stipulating it in his contract with the team, although it’s not known if Sasaki has such a clause in his deal with the Marines. Indeed, it’s not even known who currently represents Sasaki, although Janes notes that Wasserman’s Joel Wolfe, who serves as Yamamoto’s agent and negotiated his $325MM deal with the Dodgers, is “rumored” to be set to handle his move to the majors.

If Sasaki were to be posted this winter, he would join a 2024-25 free agent class that figures to be exceptionally deep in starting pitching talent with Walker Buehler, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes among the front-of-the-rotation talents expected to be available. Previously reported rumblings among executives seems to indicate that the general expectation within the game is that Sasaki is most likely to sign with the Dodgers, though that appears to be nothing more than speculation at this point. After all, teams would enjoy a much more even financial playing field in bidding for his services this winter than one would typically associate with a free agent of his caliber thanks to the aforementioned spending restrictions regarding players posted before the age of 25. The Dodgers are joined by the Yankees, Mets, Cardinals, and Rangers among teams that have reportedly already begun to scout Sasaki’s NPB starts this season.