Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Roki Sasaki

NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines To Post Roki Sasaki For MLB Clubs

By | at

November 10: The previously unspecified arm injury that caused Sasaki to miss time in 2024 was reportedly “a bout with shoulder fatigue,” according to The Athletic’s Will Sammon. The young right-hander’s recent injury history is just about the only thing that could give potential suitors pause this offseason, but such a relatively minor ailment is unlikely to do much damage to his market.

November 9: Roki Sasaki is coming to MLB next season. His NPB team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, announced overnight (on X) that they intend to make their ace available via the posting system. They did not reveal a specific date when they’ll open the posting window. Sasaki will be represented by Wasserman, tweets Francys Romero.

The announcement opens one of the top storylines of the offseason. Sasaki, who turned 23 last week, is the best pitcher in Japan. He’s one of the most talented pitchers on the planet. It’s the second consecutive offseason in which MLB teams will compete for arguably NPB’s best pitcher. Unlike the Yoshinobu Yamamoto bidding, Sasaki’s earning power is capped at a few million dollars.

MLB classifies players who sign out of a foreign league before they turn 25 as amateurs. Those players can only sign a minor league contract and are subject to a hard-capped bonus limit. Whichever team signs Sasaki is allowed to add him to the MLB roster by Opening Day — he isn’t going to start the season in Triple-A even though his first contract will be a minor league deal — but he won’t be able to sign for huge money.

After he signs, Sasaki will be subject to the same six-year control window that applies to any player called up from the farm system. He’ll play the next three seasons on roughly league minimum salaries before going through arbitration three times. Sasaki would not return to the open market until the 2030-31 offseason. He would be eligible to sign an extension during his team control window, but MLB has the ability to block a contract that it deems a circumvention of the bonus pool limits. There’s no set criteria for what might cause MLB to intervene, but it’s safe to say that Sasaki won’t be signing a massive extension within a few weeks of agreeing to a modest signing bonus.

Yamamoto waited until his 25th birthday to avoid the bonus limit. That freed him to sign with the Dodgers for $325MM, the largest guarantee for a pitcher in history. Sasaki didn’t want to follow that path. He instead prioritized making the move to MLB as quickly as possible, though that required the cooperation of the Marines.

NPB players are not eligible for international free agency until they’ve accrued nine years of service time. Sasaki has pitched at Japan’s highest level for four years. He unsuccessfully pushed for the Marines to post him for MLB teams last offseason. He gets his wish this time around. There’s been speculation that Sasaki’s contract might’ve contained some kind of clause to force the team’s hand.

Whether out of contractual obligation or simply to honor the player’s wishes, the Marines will lose their ace for essentially nothing. The posting agreement between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball ties the NPB team’s compensation to the value of the free agent contract. An MLB team signing a posted player pays a fee to the Japanese team on top of what goes to the player. The fee is a fixed amount calculated as 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending.

Yamamoto’s deal came with a windfall for his former team, the Orix Buffaloes. The Dodgers paid the Buffaloes $50.625MM to release him from his contract. The Marines will get a fraction of that. If Sasaki signs for $10MM — and there’s a decent chance his bonus will land below that — the team would receive a $2MM posting fee.

The Marines’ loss will be an MLB team’s gain. Evaluators project Sasaki as a top-of-the-rotation starter. He can push into the triple digits with his fastball and has a potentially lethal splitter. His fastball lost a bit of life this past season, though the pitch still sits in the upper 90s. Marquee’s Lance Brozdowski reports (YouTube link) that Sasaki averaged 97.1 MPH this year after sitting at 99 MPH in ’23. That’s well above average for an MLB starter despite trending in the wrong direction.

While the fastball velocity is eye-catching, evaluators suggest his low-90s splitter is his best pitch. He deploys a slider as his top breaking ball, and while that’s not as well regarded as the fastball-splitter combination, it’s a potential above-average offering. The Athletic’s Eno Sarris broke down Sasaki’s pitch mix in greater detail this week.

Writing for Baseball America in 2023, Kyle Glaser projected Sasaki as an ace who’d warrant the first overall pick if he were in the domestic amateur draft. Glaser ranked Sasaki as the most talented non-MLB player in the ’23 World Baseball Classic, one spot ahead of Yamamoto. Sasaki struck out 11 hitters over 7 2/3 innings of four-run ball for Japan’s championship team.

The 6’2″ hurler has posted dominant numbers on a rate basis in NPB. He has a career 2.10 earned run average in nearly 400 innings. This year’s 2.35 ERA was the highest of any of his four seasons. In a relative down year, Sasaki punched out nearly 29% of batters faced against a manageable 7.1% walk percentage.

To the extent there’s a knock against Sasaki, it’s his workload. He has yet to reach 130 innings in any season. He was limited to 111 frames this year and missed time midseason due to an unspecified injury in his throwing arm. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that he also suffered a torn oblique. The injury history is a concern when paired with his slight velocity dip, but it’s unlikely to dissuade teams from an all-out recruitment. The upside of getting a potential top-of-the-rotation arm far outweighs the minimal cost.

Passan writes that the Marines have not settled on a date when they’ll open the posting window. Whenever they officially post him, Sasaki has 45 days to decide where to sign. It’s possible that’ll carry well into the 2025 calendar. Major League Baseball’s signing periods for international amateurs run between January 15 and December 15 every year. Teams commit the vast majority of that money on 1/15, finalizing contracts that have been verbally agreed upon well in advance.

Sasaki may prefer to wait until the opening of next year’s signing window. Teams already have verbal agreements with amateur players — most of whom are signing out of Latin America at age 16 — for their 2025 bonus window. Clubs could renege on some of those unofficial agreements to reallocate money for Sasaki. Teams are also allowed to trade for international signing bonus space up to a point. A team can acquire up to 75% of its initial bonus pool allotment. A club that knows it won’t have a chance to land Sasaki may be willing to trade most of its bonus space to a team in pursuit of the Japanese star in exchange for other prospects or MLB help.

In April, Baseball America’s Ben Badler published a list of teams’ bonus allotments for the ’25 signing period. The Reds, Tigers, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, A’s, Mariners and Rays have the largest pools at $7.5555MM each. If one of those teams acquired another 75% via trade and devoted the entire allotment to Sasaki, his maximum signing bonus would be around $13.22MM.

He’ll almost certainly sign for far less. If Sasaki were prioritizing money, he’d have waited until he turned 25 and sought a deal that rivaled or beat Yamamoto’s. As was the case with Shohei Ohtani in 2017, Sasaki is leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table in the short term to get to MLB right away. All 30 teams will be on more or less even footing financially. His free agency will be about teams’ competitive outlooks, pitching development plans and geographic preferences.

There’s already ample speculation about the Dodgers as a landing spot. They’re certainly well positioned from a competitive and geographic perspective. Financial might isn’t a direct consideration for this free agent, though, and any team could fit Sasaki into the budget if he were genuinely open to all offers.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Roki Sasaki’s Potential Posting

By | at

Roki Sasaki would be one of the most talented players in the upcoming free agent class if he were available. The 6’2″ right-hander has been a star in Japan for the past four seasons. He is widely regarded as one of the best, if not the best, pitchers currently in NPB. Sasaki won’t turn 23 until November and would be a top target for any number of major league clubs.

His availability is by no means guaranteed. While MLB teams have kept a close eye on Sasaki’s status for years, he doesn’t have the ability to force his way to the majors anytime soon. As with all NPB players, he’d need nine years of service time in Japan before he qualifies for international free agency.  The only way for Sasaki to make the jump to the majors earlier than that is with the cooperation of the Chiba Lotte Marines, his NPB club.

The Marines could agree to make Sasaki available to MLB teams via the posting system. The star pitcher asked them to do just that last offseason; the team declined the request, leaving Sasaki without much of a choice but to return for his fourth full season there. It seems the way that process unfolded left the pitcher displeased.

Jeff Passan of ESPN writes that Sasaki’s relationship with the Marines is damaged by the team’s denial of his posting request. According to Passan, Sasaki is likely to renew his request for the Marines to post him during the upcoming offseason. Yet it’s entirely possible — perhaps likely — that the team will decline to make him available yet again.

There isn’t much of an incentive for the Marines to let Sasaki walk this winter. Their only potential benefit would be a reputational boost of accommodating the wish of their star player to test himself against MLB hitters. The details of the posting system and MLB’s international bonus pool rules make it far more advantageous for the Marines to hold Sasaki past his 25th birthday.

International players who are under the age of 25 are considered amateurs and are subject to bonus pool restrictions. They are technically only allowed to sign minor league contracts (although an MLB team would surely select Sasaki onto the major league roster by the start of the season).

The far bigger drawback is that teams have a hard cap on spending on international amateurs. While the precise amount varies by team, Baseball America’s Ben Badler reported in April that next year’s bonus pool allotments top out at roughly $7.56MM. Teams can tack on another few million dollars via trade, but it’s a marginal difference. Even if a team maxed out its bonus pool and offered the highest amount to Sasaki (punting the chance to sign any other amateurs of significance for the year), his signing bonus would land somewhere in the $11MM range.

That’s obviously nowhere near the open market value for arguably the best pitcher in Japan. The cases of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are illustrative. Ohtani made the jump to MLB at age 23 and was subject to the bonus pool limitations. He signed with the Angels in 2017 for $2.3MM. Yamamoto, who waited until he was 25 to come over, signed a $325MM contract last offseason that represented the largest deal ever for a free agent pitcher. The bonus pool restrictions very likely made a difference of hundreds of millions of dollars.

Sasaki seems willing to live with those constraints to get to the majors as quickly as possible. That doesn’t mean the Marines are willing to do the same. The posting agreement between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball ties the NPB team’s compensation to the value of the free agent contract. An MLB team signing a posted player pays a fee to the Japanese team on top of what goes to the player. The fee is a fixed amount calculated as 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending.

Yamamoto’s $325MM deal came with a windfall for his former team, the Orix Buffaloes. The Dodgers paid the Buffaloes $50.625MM to release him from his contract. If the Marines were to let Sasaki walk this winter, they’d get a small fraction of that amount because of the bonus restrictions. A $10MM bonus for Sasaki would come with a $2MM posting fee for the Marines. That’s meager compensation for parting ways with their 23-year-old ace.

That could all point to the Marines holding Sasaki for two more years. If the team waits to make him available until the 2026-27 offseason, there’d be no limit on his signing bonus — and therefore no indirect cap on the posting fee that the team could receive. That’d presumably only further irritate Sasaki, but it doesn’t seem the pitcher has any leverage to force the team’s hand.

Ohtani making the jump to the majors in 2017-18 shows that it isn’t impossible for a top Japanese free agent to leave early in his posting window. Yet there are a few distinctions between Ohtani’s case and the situation in which Sasaki finds himself.

Jorge Castillo and Jack Harris wrote in the Los Angeles Times last winter that Ohtani had a stipulation in his contract with his NPB team, the Nippon-Ham Fighters, that allowed him to enter the posting system at any time. While Castillo and Harris wrote at the time that “Sasaki is thought to also have that clause in his deal” with the Marines, that doesn’t appear to be the case. Passan stated this morning that “Lotte controls the entire process and can keep Sasaki through the 2026 season if it so desires.” That the Marines were able to prevent Sasaki from being posted last winter — ostensibly against his wishes and in a manner that strained his relationship with the team — points to the club indeed having the final say.

The posting system was also different at the time in which Ohtani came over. While the posting fee is now strictly tied to the signing bonus amount, that was not the case in 2017. The previous posting system allowed an NPB team to name a price up to $20MM, independent of the bonus amount, which they’d require to grant the player permission to move to MLB. The Fighters established the maximum $20MM price, which the Angels happily paid to get Ohtani for a modest bonus. The Marines don’t have that option, so the Fighters collected a posting fee that is 10 times (or more) what Chiba Lotte would receive for Sasaki next winter.

That presents a significant impediment to Sasaki joining a major league team before 2027. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote a couple weeks ago that some MLB executives felt the pitcher might prefer to stay in Japan for another season, though it seems the Marines are the far bigger obstacle.

Lotte does not appear to be under any contractual pressure to let him leave within the next two years. Sasaki is nowhere close to the nine-year threshold for international free agency, nor the eight-year threshold that would permit him to sign with another NPB club. The NPB Players Association has begun an effort to reduce the free agency cutoffs, but that’s an ambitious collective bargaining effort that isn’t likely to be achieved in the next few months.

Sasaki has a 2.01 earned run average in 380 2/3 career innings at Japan’s top level. This hasn’t been his best season, as he carries a personal-worst 2.45 ERA through 77 frames and missed some time with arm discomfort. He nevertheless remains an incredible talent. He has struck out nearly a third of opponents in his career and has fanned 28.7% of batters faced this season. Scouts credit him with a triple-digit fastball and a potential 70-grade (plus-plus) splitter.

He’s perhaps most famous for his stretch of dominance in April 2022, when he followed up a 19-strikeout perfect game with another eight perfect innings before finally giving up a single to start the ninth. He struck out 11 over 7 2/3 innings of four-run ball for Japan’s championship team in the 2023 World Baseball Classic.

MLBTR Podcast: Ángel Hernández Retires, Ronald Acuña Jr. Out For The Season And Roki Sasaki’s Potential Posting

By | at

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Could the next collective bargaining agreement have a feature to get relievers paid earlier? (43:15)
  • Would Taylor Ward of the Angels be a good fit for the Braves? (50:35)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Report: MLB Teams Planning For Roki Sasaki Posting This Offseason

By | at

Japanese pitching phenom Roki Sasaki had plenty of eyes on him this past offseason when it was reported that he had asked to be posted for major league clubs ahead of his age-22 campaign, and while he ultimately remained with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chiba Lotte Marines for the 2024 campaign, that’s done little to quell speculation about his future in stateside baseball. That speculation may not be entirely unfounded, Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post reported this morning that MLB clubs are “planning” for the possibility that Sasaki is posted during the 2024-25 offseason. Neither Sasaki nor the Marines have confirmed the youngster’s plans for the future.

Sasaki is generally viewed as the biggest rising star in Japanese baseball today. MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski discussed Sasaki back in September amid his return from an oblique issue that had sidelined him for most of the second half, noting his triple-digit velocity was present even in his abbreviated three-inning return to the league’s highest level. That outing contributed to a dominant overall line in NPB play last year, as Sasaki pitched to a 1.78 ERA while striking out a whopping 39.1% of batters faced in 91 innings of work.

As noted by both Podziewski and Janes, durability appears to be the only box left for Sasaki to check in the Pacific League, where he sports a career ERA of 2.03 across 337 1/3 innings of work. Sasaki’s career-high innings total as a professional to this point in his career stands at just 129 1/3, well below the 150-170 inning range that’s standard for front-of-the-rotation arms in Japan. For example, Dodgers right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw 171 innings between all levels of NPB play during his final season in Japan last year, while Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga completed 159 frames. Sasaki is currently on pace to reach that threshold this season, with a 2.18 ERA in 53 1/3 innings of work across eight starts while Janes notes that the righty threw 119 pitches in a start last week without issue.

While Sasaki and the Marines have been fairly tight-lipped about the right-hander’s future plans, Janes notes that people around Sasaki, including teammate and former big leaguer Gregory Polanco, have made it clear the right-hander is excited to make the jump to the majors. Whether that move will come following the 2024 campaign remains to be seen, although it’s worth noting that Janes suggests that some teams are keeping a portion of their international bonus pool available in case Sasaki is posted.

As a player under the age of 25, Sasaki would not be eligible for the typical posting process that Yamamoto and Imanaga both participated in this past offseason, where there are no limitations placed on the contract the player can sign. Instead, Sasaki would be considered an international amateur, who can only be offered a rookie contract in the majors along with a signing bonus that comes out of the signing club’s international bonus pool.

Given the substantial decrease in financial compensation available for both player and team if an NPB player is posted before his 25th birthday, it’s extremely rare for a player to take that avenue; to this point, Shohei Ohtani is the only player to make the jump from NPB to MLB using this method rather than arriving in the majors via the posting system or free agency. For Sasaki to follow in his footsteps, Lotte would have to agree to post the right-hander. Janes notes that one way a player could secure an early posting from his club is by stipulating it in his contract with the team, although it’s not known if Sasaki has such a clause in his deal with the Marines. Indeed, it’s not even known who currently represents Sasaki, although Janes notes that Wasserman’s Joel Wolfe, who serves as Yamamoto’s agent and negotiated his $325MM deal with the Dodgers, is “rumored” to be set to handle his move to the majors.

If Sasaki were to be posted this winter, he would join a 2024-25 free agent class that figures to be exceptionally deep in starting pitching talent with Walker Buehler, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes among the front-of-the-rotation talents expected to be available. Previously reported rumblings among executives seems to indicate that the general expectation within the game is that Sasaki is most likely to sign with the Dodgers, though that appears to be nothing more than speculation at this point. After all, teams would enjoy a much more even financial playing field in bidding for his services this winter than one would typically associate with a free agent of his caliber thanks to the aforementioned spending restrictions regarding players posted before the age of 25. The Dodgers are joined by the Yankees, Mets, Cardinals, and Rangers among teams that have reportedly already begun to scout Sasaki’s NPB starts this season.

AL West Notes: Verlander, García, Santos, Brash, Sasaki

By | at

A pair of Astros starting pitchers are making progress on their way back from injuries. Justin Verlander spoke to reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic) after a successful batting practice session against live hitters on Monday. He believes his next step will be a minor league rehab assignment. Manager Joe Espada provided a similar update, telling Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that his ace “should be ready to go out on a rehab assignment” as long as he “comes back tomorrow feeling well.” Espada suggested Verlander would need more than one rehab appearance before he can return to the Astros, but the skipper did not provide an exact timeline for the three-time Cy Young winner’s return. Verlander has recovered from the shoulder injury that kept him on the sidelines this spring. Still, he needs more time to build up his arm strength before pitching in an MLB game.

Meanwhile, Luis García has begun to throw off a mound, and Espada says the righty is “ahead of schedule” in his recovery from a UCL injury (per Rome). The 27-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery last May. While he still has plenty of work to put in before he can return to the majors, the Astros are hopeful he can rejoin the rotation by July if all goes well (per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Over 64 games (62 starts) from 2021-23, García pitched to a 3.63 ERA and 3.86 SIERA.

More news from around the AL West…

  • The Mariners received some good news today when reliever Gregory Santos’ MRI came back clean (per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). He had been dealing with a flareup of inflammation in the strained lat that kept him out for all of spring training. According to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, Santos needed the MRI to come back clean in order to resume his throwing program; the hard-throwing right-hander has now begun “light baseball activities” (per Jude). The Mariners have not yet provided a timeline for his return, but they are surely hoping to get him back sooner rather than later. Santos pitched to a 3.39 ERA and 3.32 SIERA in 60 games for the White Sox last season.
  • In other Mariners bullpen news, Matt Brash is making progress as he recovers from right elbow inflammation. While Mariners GM Justin Hollander would not provide an exact timeline for any of his injured arms, he suggested that Brash is the furthest along in his rehab (per Jude). Like Santos, Brash is a hard-throwing right-hander coming off a breakout year. In 78 games last season, he posted a 3.06 ERA and 2.86 SIERA, winning nine games and collecting 24 holds.
  • Eight teams recently sent representatives to watch NPB ace Roki Sasaki pitch in Japan. The Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets, and Yankees were previously reported to be four of those clubs, and now Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reveals that a scout from the Rangers was also in attendance. That leaves three remaining mystery teams present at Sasaki’s latest starts for the Chiba Lotte Marines.

Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Cardinals Among Teams Scouting Roki Sasaki

By | at

Eight MLB teams sent representatives to watch NPB ace Roki Sasaki’s latest start, according to articles from Sports Hochi and Yahoo Japan, as relayed by Dylan Hernández of The Los Angeles Times and Andy Martino of SNY, respectively. Among those teams were the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, and Cardinals.

Sasaki is just 22 years old and already one of the best pitchers in Japan. Over three NPB seasons, he has thrown 283 2/3 innings with 376 strikeouts and a 2.00 ERA. The ace made headlines last winter when he reportedly asked to be posted for MLB teams well ahead of the typical timeline – MLB does not allow players under 25 years old and with fewer than six professional seasons to sign anything more than a minor league contract. Ultimately, Sasaski re-signed with the Chiba Lotte Marines, temporarily putting a stop to any talk of his being posted. Still, he could make the same request this coming offseason. While he might be forfeiting a massive free agent payday if he is posted before his 25th birthday, he has made no secret of his desire to pitch in MLB.

It’s no surprise, then, that several MLB teams are showing interest in Sasaski. However, the two-time NPB All-Star might have already decided where he wants to pitch in 2025 and beyond. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, “several GMs” are under the impression that Sasaki “already has plans to sign with the Dodgers” during the 2024-25 offseason.

According to one general manager, “There’s no way he’s going anywhere else but the Dodgers. We all know it.” While that particular comment was spoken in no uncertain terms, it also sounds more like conjecture than insider knowledge. Indeed, this entire report may be more speculation on the part of the executives than anything else. After all, at least seven teams besides the Dodgers are actively scouting Sasaski, and they wouldn’t be doing so if they didn’t think they had a chance to secure his services in the future. Moreover, even if Sasaki truly does have his sights set on the Dodgers, the rest of the league will still have an opportunity to change his mind.

Roki Sasaki Re-Signs With NPB’s Lotte Marines, Discusses Future

By | at

Right-hander Roki Sasaki re-signed with the Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball today on a one-year contract, per Stephen Wade of The Associated Press.

The deal puts to bed rumors that percolated earlier in the offseason that Sasaski would attempt to make the jump from NPB to MLB this winter. Such an arrangement would have been unusual for a Japanese player look to continue his career stateside. MLB posting rules stipulate that players must be at least 25 years old and have played in at least six professional seasons before they can sign with a big league club on anything other than a minor league contract.

Some players (most notably Shohei Ohtani) make the jump prior to those benchmarks, though in doing so they limit their own immediate earnings to what clubs can offer them from their international bonus pool. Said pools range from $4,144,000 to $6,366,900 for this year’s signing period, and it’s unlikely a team would be willing or able to commit their entire pool to one player. Ohtani, for example, received a bonus of just $2.3MM when he first signed on with the Angels prior to the 2018 season.

Given Sasaki’s talent, there’s little question that he would be able to command significantly more than that if he were to proceed normally through the posting system. Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed the richest free agent deal for a pitcher in MLB history earlier this winter, and it’s possible Sasaki could look to rival that sum through the posting system given his career 2.00 ERA and 34.4% strikeout rate in 46 NPB starts. Sasaski pairs a fastball that touches triple-digits with a forkball that has allowed him to dominate in the World Baseball Classic and become the youngster player in NPB history to throw a perfect game while setting an NPB record for strikeouts in a single start with 19.

Per a report from Kyodo News, Sasaki made no secret of his MLB aspirations during a recent press conference. The phenom was quoted as saying he has a desire to play in the majors “in the future,” that he has communicated that sentiment to Lotte every year, and that the club understands his goals. The report also includes comments from a Marines executive, Naoki Matsumoto. Matsumoto indicated that there was no truth to rumors of discord between Sasaki and the club regarding the right-hander’s future plans and that Sasaki’s desire to play in the majors was known to the club prior to the 2023 campaign.

Wade notes that some reports out of Japan have indicated that Sasaki has negotiated the ability to depart for the majors ahead of the typical posting timeline, perhaps even as soon as next offseason. With that being said, however, neither Sasaki nor the Marines have given a hint as to a timeline for the righty’s jump to the big leagues. When asked about a timeline for his move stateside at the aforementioned presser, Sasaki demurred in favor of focusing on the coming 2024 campaign. Whether that move ultimately comes next offseason or sometime in the future, Sasaki has flashed the potential to be a game-changing arm for any club and would instantly become one of the most attractive free agents in the class he joins.

Roki Sasaki Asks To Be Posted For MLB Teams, Chiba Lotte Marines Likely To Deny Request

By | at

Japanese pitching sensation Roki Sasaki has asked the Chiba Lotte Marines to make him available to MLB teams via the posting system this winter, according to Sponichi Annex (Japanese language link from Yahoo Japan).  Nippon Professional Baseball teams have until December 15 to post players for possible moves to Major League Baseball in advance of the 2024 season, and this brief timeline alone makes it highly unlikely that the Marines will grant Sasaki’s request.

In the broader picture, it is quite rare for Japanese players to ask to be posted so early in their careers, as the 22-year-old Sasaki has only played three seasons in NPB.  As per MLB’s posting rules, players must be at least 25 years and have at least six pro seasons under their belt in order to receive anything more than a minor league contract.  Big league clubs could also only pay such players money from their international bonus pools, and with this year’s international signing window yet to open on January 15, teams have long since committed the bulk of their pool money to prospects.  Shohei Ohtani faced these restrictions when he came to the majors at age 23, and thus received only a minors deal from the Angels and a $2.3MM signing bonus.

Jorge Castillo and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times profiled Sasaki last month, noting that Sasaki’s contract with the Marines “is thought to” have an escape clause that would allow the righty to leave for the majors at any time.  Ohtani enacted such a clause in 2017, though Ohtani had played five seasons with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters.

The Sponichi article didn’t give any mention about such a contractual opt-out, though the unusual timing of Sasaki’s request perhaps does indicate that he has some leverage to take this rather immediate plunge into the posting system.  Castillo/Harris wrote that the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants have all “intensely scouted” Sasaki in Japan, and at one point, the Dodgers thought that Sasaki would be available as early as this offseason.

Sasaki wouldn’t achieve full free agency until he has nine seasons of service time, and in general, NPB teams don’t post players early until they’re a year or two away from that nine-season threshold.  For instance, Yoshinobu Yamamoto played seven seasons with the Orix Buffaloes before the Buffaloes agreed to post the star righty this winter, and the 25-year-old Yamamoto now looks poised to command a contract well north of $200MM.

Yamamoto’s combination of youth and skill has all but guaranteed a huge contract, yet even his number could pale in comparison to what Sasaki might receive.  Though he would seemingly be limited to a minor league deal at first and would have to wait at least a few seasons into an MLB career to sign an extension without drawing attention from the league office, that might be a risk Sasaki is willing to take given the potential huge payoff down the road.  In the interim, he won’t be lacking in compensation, since a jump to the majors would surely boost his endorsement appeal.

Over 283 2/3 career innings with the Marines, Sasaki has a 2.00 ERA, 34.4% strikeout rate, and 5.12% walk rate, and these video-game numbers are only part of Sasaki’s burgeoning legend.  His fastball routinely sits in the upper-90s and has topped out at 102.5mph, and his forkball is arguably an even deadlier pitch.  Sasaki’s pitched well for Japan’s gold medal-winning team at the 2023 World Baseball Classic, and he has two NPB All-Star appearances on his resume.  Most famously, Sasaki came within an inning of back-to-back perfect games — he tossed a perfecto against the Buffaloes in April 2022 that saw him record 13 straight strikeouts amidst an NPB-record 19 K’s in his masterpiece of a start.  Incredibly, Sasaki followed that up with eight perfect innings in his next outing before being pulled before the start of the ninth due to pitch count reasons (102 pitches).

The Marines’ desire to preserve Sasaki’s arm and overall health has been a main storyline of his career.  He was the first overall pick of the 2019 NPB draft, yet he didn’t make his debut with Chiba until May 2021, as the team wanted to ease his development into pro ball.  Sasaki missed about six weeks this season due to an oblique strain, limiting him to 91 innings for the 2023 campaign.  As MLB’s Dai Takegami Podziewski noted in his last installment of the NPB Players To Watch feature, durability is basically the last question Sasaki has to really answer about his long-term potential, and the righty’s 6’4″, 203-pound frame would suggest that he is perhaps built to hold up under the larger workloads faced by Major League pitchers.

While it remains to be seen if Sasaki will actually be able to enter the 2023-24 free agent market, it would obviously be a game changer in a winter that already has a lot of high-end starters still on the board.  If nothing else, Sasaki’s request might well be setting a stage for a posting next winter, when he could join another loaded pitching class that might include Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber, Tyler Glasnow, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and possibly even Gerrit Cole if the Yankees don’t enact a contract clause preventing Cole from opting out.

NPB Players To Watch: September

By | at

The 2023 regular season is approaching its final stages in the NPB. Here’s the latest on the players we’ve been keeping track of at MLBTR. If you need a refresher on more specific player profiles, check out the first edition of the series.

Let’s get to it!

(Stats are as of September 13th)

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes

Yamamoto continues to show us why he’s undoubtedly the best pitcher in NPB. The 25-year-old right-hander just tossed his second career no-hitter against the Chiba Lotte Marines this past weekend, in front of scouts/executives of 12 MLB ball clubs, including Yankees GM Brian Cashman.

It feels like a long time ago when I wrote that Yamamoto was having a “slow” start to the season by his standards, with a 2.35 ERA in his first 38 ⅓ innings. Yamamoto has shifted into a different gear since May. Yamamoto hasn’t given up an earned run in six consecutive starts, since the beginning of August. He’s currently on a 42-inning streak without an earned run allowed.

In his 20 starts in 2023, the Orix Buffaloes ace has a 1.26 ERA, striking out 26.2% of hitters and walking just 4.3%, and a 1.86 FIP in 143 frames. That 1.26 ERA is good enough for the lowest ERA in NPB since Masahiro Tanaka’s 1.27 ERA in 2011. Yamamoto is once again on pace to claim the Pacific League pitching triple crown (ERA, strikeouts, wins).

At age 25, Yamamoto is showing no signs of slowing down and continues to evolve. He notably tweaked his delivery last offseason to more of a slide-step style. Despite the “slow start”, it’s safe to say that the change has paid off, as Yamamoto has raised his average fastball velocity to 95.56 mph (152.9 km/h) compared to 94.9 mph (151.9 km/h) in 2022. In addition to his consistency, strikeout stuff, and ability to pitch deep into games, another development in Yamamoto’s game is his ability to keep the ball in the park. Yamamoto has allowed just two homers all season (he gave up between six and eight homers per season since his first full season as a starting pitcher in 2019).

2. Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA Baystars

It was reported last week that the Yokohama DeNA Baystars lefty will be posted this off-season, as many in Japan predicted last off-season. The 30-year-old southpaw had his best month in July but got roughed up in August with a 5.27 ERA. He had a bounce-back outing earlier today against the Chunichi Dragons, tossing eight innings of one-run ball and striking out eleven, with the sole run coming from a solo homer. His season numbers are still strong, with a 2.71 ERA, 29.96% strikeout rate, and 3.9% walk rate in his 20 starts.

Although his ERA is not as good as 2022 (2.26), Imanaga’s strikeout rate at 29.9% is a career-best. The Baystars ace notably increased his average fastball velocity in the past few seasons. It now sits around 92.2mph (147.5 km/h), compared to 90.8 mph (145.3km/h) in 2021. While Imanaga’s arm is not overpowering, the combination of his command and strikeout stuff allows him to rack up strikeouts. 

3. Yuki Matsui, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

The 27-year-old left-handed closer for the Eagles continues to be one of the best relievers in NPB. Despite his young age and being converted to a starter on a few occasions during his career, Matsui is one of the most accomplished closers in the history of NPB. The southpaw became the ninth NPB pitcher in history to reach 200 career saves and was the youngest player to ever reach that mark. On the season, he has the second most saves in NPB with 33. He’s been nothing but reliable, with strong numbers to back it up; posting a 1.55 ERA, 33.7% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate in 49 appearances. 

Matsui officially earned his overseas free agent rights earlier in the year, giving him the ability to sign with an MLB team without going through the posting system. The Eagles southpaw still hasn’t made clear what his plans are beyond 2023. 

As I wrote in the first edition of the series, Matsui’s struggle to adapt to the WBC ball, which is closer to the MLB ball, may play a role in his MLB evaluation. If MLB offers aren’t enticing enough, he may very well choose to stay in NPB and attempt to break the NPB save record. 

4. Kona Takahashi, Saitama Seibu Lions

Takahashi continues to prove that his career-best season in 2022 was not a fluke, posting a strong 2.31 ERA in 22 starts, the eighth highest among qualified starters in the entire NPB. He’s fanned hitters at an 18.8% rate and walking hitters at a 7.7% rate. 

The 27-year-old righty missed a few starts in August because of an illness. He struggled in the first two starts after his return, clearly still regaining his health and conditioning. He bounced back and tossed six shutout innings this past weekend, in front of MLB scouts. He continues to make improvements and his average fastball velocity has improved dramatically since he entered the league, which should make him more intriguing to MLB teams. 

Takahashi made his MLB aspirations clear last offseason, but it’s unclear if he’ll be posted by the Lions. 

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

Naoyuki Uwasawa has had himself another solid season for the Fighters, posting a 2.84 ERA, with an 18.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 158 ⅓ innings, the most innings pitched in all of NPB. 

Sports Hochi reported that scouts from the Angels, Royals, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Cubs attended his September 2nd, so MLB teams are keeping tabs on the 29-year-old right-hander. Unfortunately, there may be a Kohei Arihara-sized cloud hanging over Uwasawa’s MLB dreams. Uwasawa doesn’t have an overpowering arm with his average fastball velocity sitting around 90.8 mph. He also does not boast strikeout stuff, while not having the same command that Arihara had when he was coming to MLB (although Arihara himself was wild during his Rangers tenure). 

Younger stars to keep an eye on

1. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines

Sasaki was on pace for a historic season rivaling Yamamoto’s, before he was diagnosed with a left oblique muscle tear which sidelined him at the end of July. The 6-foot-4 hurler was expected to miss the remainder of the 2023 regular season, but made a surprisingly quick recovery and returned over the weekend. Sasaki was limited to three innings since he skipped a rehab start, but still showcased his lively arm, with his signature fastball sitting between 98mph and 100mph. The Marines will likely not overextend their star right-hander, so he will be carefully managed for the remainder of the season. 

On the season, Sasaki has a 1.53 ERA, an unbelievable 40% strikeout rate, a 4.8% walk rate and 88 innings in his 14 starts. There is no doubt about Sasaki’s talent and natural frame at 6’4″ and 203 pounds. The only thing Sasaki has left to “prove” is his durability, and showcasing that he can pitch multiple full seasons. There is plenty of time for him to prove that, since he’ll likely be posted in the 2026 offseason at the earliest, barring any surprise requests.

2. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Murakami has shrugged off most concerns and has re-established himself as one of the premier power hitters in NPB. Although he has had, by his standards, the statistically worst season since his rookie season in 2019, Murakami is still slashing a solid .253/.372/.497 with 28 homers, 77 RBIs, and a .869 OPS. 

Murakami did address his early season slump in an August interview, where he said he lost his way a little bit while training with the other Japanese stars in the lead-up to the WBC. He said that he got distracted trying to incorporate the training regimen of players like Shohei Ohtani, Masataka Yoshida, and Yu Darvish and did not address his swing as much as he should have. 

While he does have a great walk rate at 18.1%, Murakami is still striking out at an alarming 34.5% rate. He also struggles to hit righties, hitting just .209 against them. He still needs to make improvements with his defense at third base, as he has an NPB-worst 20 errors. This season is obviously far from Murakami’s best, but a down year may allow him to come back even stronger next season.

Murakami signed a three-year deal last offseason that came with a reported guarantee that he will be posted in the 2025-2026 offseason. 

3. Kazuma Okamoto, Yomiuri Giants

Okamoto’s name came up in headlines last week, after it was reported that he was on the radar of several MLB teams. Okamoto is in the midst of a career-year, with a slash line of .293/.386/.611 with 90 RBIs and an NPB-leading 38 homers and .997 OPS. He has an 18.9% strikeout rate and a 12.2% walk rate. He was unstoppable in August, slashing .318/.422/.812, blasting 12 homers and driving in 25 runs. 

Okamoto has hinted at interest in a potential MLB move, but he isn’t set to be a free agent until the 2026-2027 offseason. The 6’1″, 220-pound slugger is a career .275 hitter with 182 homers, hitting at least 30 homers in every season since becoming a full-time starter in 2018. The Giants slugger has hit 30 homers for six consecutive seasons, which speaks to his durability and consistency.

The Giants are traditionally against the posting system. The only two players they allowed to be posted were Shun Yamaguchi and Tomoyuki Sugano, and both were unique situations. Yamaguchi was given permission because he made it a part of his free agency deal when signing for the Giants from the Baystars in 2016. Sugano was given special permission to enter the posting system, because he refused to join the Nippon Ham Fighters when he was originally drafted in 2011 and he held out for an entire season before being drafted by the Giants in 2012 (and his uncle is Giants manager Tatsunori Hara, which may have played a role).

As expected, the ball club has denied any conversations regarding Okamoto’s potential move, with executive Atsunori Otsuka saying “We’ve heard he has MLB aspirations, but we’ve never had direct discussion with him about that. We typically don’t accept posting, and want our players to earn their overseas rights. It was the same with Hideki Matsui.”

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move. Other NPB top performers are also on the list.

Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Shunpeita Yamashita, Orix Buffaloes; Atsuki Taneichi, right-handed starter, Chiba Lotte Marines. Liván Moinelo, left-handed reliever, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. Raidel Martinez, right-handed reliever, Chunichi Dragons. (Moinelo and Martinez will have to defect their homeland, Cuba, to join MLB)

NPB Players To Watch: July

By | at

The NPB All-Star Game wrapped up this week and the second half of the 2023 season is set to start back up tomorrow. Let’s catch up with the NPB stars who may be making their way to MLB. 

For more detailed profiles and playstyles, please take a look at the first post of the series from April!

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes

In the last update, I wrote that Yamamoto had his best month of the season. The 24-year-old right-hander has maintained his excellent form through June and through the All-Star break. Outside of a June 23 start against the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks where he gave up four runs in six innings, he’s tossed at least eight innings of one-run ball in each of his last three starts, including a complete game against the Saitama Seibu Lions on July 8. 

On the season, Yamamoto has a 1.74 ERA, a solid 28.7 K%, and an impressive 3.3 BB% in 13 starts and 93 ⅓ innings pitched. He’s fourth in the Pacific League in innings despite having three fewer starts than the league leader. He’s issued just one walk in his past four starts, and hitters have a .201 batting average against him. He was a surprise and controversial snub from the initial All-Star ballot, but was eventually voted in through the “Plus One” runoff voting to earn his fifth consecutive All-Star nod. 

MLB teams are ramping up their interest in Yamamoto, with scouts of eight teams attending his July 8th start, per Sports Hochi. He also ranks second in MLBTR’s recent 2023 free agency power rankings, and as Steve Adams writes, “A contract in excess of $200MM doesn’t seem outlandish if he can remain healthy and productive.”

2. Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA Baystars

The 29-year-old left-hander has been at his very best since the last update, allowing just three runs in 32 innings in his last four starts — including a one-run, complete game against the Hanshin Tigers on June 23 and a seven-inning, 15-strikeout gem against the Yomiuri Giants on July 7. He finished June with a 1.41 ERA and has a 0.60 ERA thus far in July. 

Imanaga’s ERA is down to 2.07, which is fourth among qualified pitchers in the Central League, with a 28.5 K% and a minuscule 2.4 BB% in 12 starts and 87 innings pitched. These stats were good enough for the lefty to get to his second career All-Star nod. Although he is still prone to long balls with 11 homers allowed on the season, he’s otherwise avoided trouble. Imanaga’s chances of coming to MLB are pretty high, as he signed with the U.S.-based agency Octagon to help talks toward a posting agreement last offseason. 

3. Yuki Matsui, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

The 27-year-old left-hander finished the first half with 23 saves, tied for most in NPB. He’s yet to give up a run in eight appearances in July and has been key to the Eagles going 11-3 in the month. The increased workload is a big contrast from NPB updates earlier in the season where Matsui didn’t have as many appearances due to the Eagles’ poor record. 

Matsui has a 0.55 ERA in 34 appearances, with a 36.3 K% and a 4.1 BB%. Although he was snubbed from the All-Star Game, Matsui is happy with the rest. “I’m thankful [for the increased workload], it’s my job to close out games and win so it’s a good thing,” Matsui said. Matsui has still not made his plans beyond 2023 clear, but he is definitely a name to keep an eye on for teams that need a lefty for their bullpen.

4. Kona Takahashi, Saitama Seibu Lions

Takahashi has had a rough July on paper, recording a 3.79 ERA in three starts, including two outings lasting just five innings. He’s bounced back from those outings in his most recent start on July 16, tossing a four-hit, six-strikeout, complete game shutout against the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters. It was his first shutout since 2020 and the fourth of his career.

The 26-year-old right-hander’s ERA now sits at 2.25 despite the rough starts in the past few months, with a 19.1 K% and a 6.8 BB% in 16 starts and 108 innings pitched. Takahashi also missed out on the All-Star game despite his strong performance in the first half thanks to a deep pool of quality starters in the Pacific League.

Takahashi’s strikeout rate has dropped in the past few weeks, but increased average fastball velocity and ability to eat innings should still be appealing to MLB teams looking for some starting pitching help. 

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

In the last update, I wrote that Uwasawa was back to his best, and finishing the season closer to a 2.50 ERA would help his chances for an MLB contract this offseason. The 29-year-old right-hander followed up his strong June with solid performances in July, including eight shutout innings against the Lions this past weekend. 

His season ERA is down to 2.87 with a 17.3 K% and 7.4 BB%. If you remove his worst start of the season against the Lions on April 15 (where he gave up eight earned runs in 5 ⅓ innings), his ERA goes all the way down to 2.31. It’s quite a remarkable turnaround for Uwasawa considering that his ERA was up to 4.62 on May 6. He is third in the Pacific League with 106 ⅔ innings in 15 starts. Uwasawa received his second career All-Star nod, his first since 2021. 

Younger stars to keep an eye on

1. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines

In his last three starts since the last update, Sasaki has allowed just one run in 22 frames while going at least seven innings and fanning at least 10 in every one of those starts. He also matched the record for the fastest NPB pitch at 103 MPH. In his most recent start, where he struck out 14 in seven innings, the average velocity on his fastball was at 99 MPH. There aren’t enough words to describe Sasaki’s dominance in the first half of 2023, as he finished with an NPB-best 1.48 ERA in 12 starts. He had an unfathomable 41 K%, 4.7 BB%, and a.151 opponent batting average in 79 innings pitched. It’s hard to imagine Sasaki can improve on these numbers, but with the combination of his age at 21 and 2023 being just his second full season of work, it’s certainly possible he reaches another level. Sasaki still has room to improve his in-game stamina and has some remaining physical projection. 

2. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Murakami continues to look more like his Triple Crown-winning self, following up a strong June with a few solid weeks to finish up the first half of the season. He’s slashing .306/.352/.612 with four homers in July. Murakami finished the first half of the season slashing .242/.359/.451 with 16 homers and his OPS is finally above .800 at .809. Despite his horrendous slump to open the season, Murakami still finished the first half in the top three in homers and RBI in the Central League. He’s managed to regain some of his form  even though the Swallows are missing key lineup contributors with injuries: including perennial All-Star Tetsuto Yamada and Yasutaka Shiomi, who has been a .800 OPS hitter since 2020. Murakami is still striking out at an alarming 31% rate and has a strong 14.2 BB%. Murakami missed out on the All-Star Game, 

3. Kazuma Okamoto, Yomiuri Giants

Although the 27-year-old corner infielder is slashing a .297/.393/.557 with a .950 OPS, 20 homers, and 51 RBIs (all in the three in all categories in the Central League), Okamoto has cooled off significantly in July, slashing just .208/.328/.375. The All-Star break could not have come at a better time for Okamoto, who had just two hits out of 26 plate appearances in his last six games to close the first half. He was the first to reach the 20-homer mark in NPB on July 7, on a solo homer off of Imanaga, but hasn’t added to his tally since. Despite the mini-slump, Okamoto is still on pace for what would be his sixth consecutive 30-homer season.

An interesting note is that he has been mashing lefties this season, slashing .355/.463/.656 in 110 plate appearances. If he is able to continue to mash lefties, the combination of Okamoto’s consistent power numbers, solid defense at the corners (two-time Gold Glove winner), and potential for positional versatility (taking reps at left field this year) should be a compelling package for MLB teams looking to add a right-handed power bat. 

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move. I’ve also added top performers who may be of interest.

Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Shunpeita Yamashita, Orix Buffaloes; Atsuki Taneichi, right-handed starter, Chiba Lotte Marines.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top