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Roki Sasaki

Roki Sasaki Met With Blue Jays In Toronto

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Within the next ten days, we’ll know where right-hander Roki Sasaki will be playing for the foreseeable future. The Japanese right-hander is one of the most talked-about international free agents in recent memory, due to a combination of age (23), pedigree (2.10 ERA in four NPB seasons) and his decision to potentially leave hundreds of millions on the table by pursuing an MLB move right now rather than in two years, when he’d be exempt from MLB’s bonus pool system for international “amateurs.” There’s been plenty of talk about the Dodgers and Padres as favorites, but Ken Rosenthal and Andy McCullough of The Athletic report that Sasaki recently traveled to Toronto to meet with the Blue Jays in person.

Back at last month’s Winter Meetings, agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman laid out a timeline in which Sasaki would receive presentations from all interested teams and host interested parties at a central location prior to the holidays. The right-hander then planned to narrow the field and, post-holidays, meet with a smaller group of clubs in their home cities. That the Jays hosted Sasaki in Toronto ostensibly indicates that they’re still in the running in what’s effectively the second round of consideration.

That shouldn’t be construed with Toronto being considered any sort of favorite, however. Pinning down any kind of favorite at this stage remains difficult because so much hinges on the preferences of Sasaki himself. Baseball America’s Ben Badler just this morning ranked the Dodgers, Padres, Yankees and Rangers — in that order — as the likeliest to sign Sasaki.

The Dodgers and Padres have been the most heavily speculated landing spots — so much so in the case of the former that Wolfe felt obligated to publicly quash rumors of a pre-meditated deal between the two parties. Los Angeles and San Diego are both still believed to be in the running for Sasaki, who’s also been linked to the Mets, Rangers, Cubs, Mariners and Giants in recent weeks. It’s not yet clear which of those teams have hosted Sasaki for an in-person meeting at their own sites just yet.

Ultimately, the decision will boil down to where Sasaki feels most comfortable and which team he feels gives him the best long-term opportunity to develop as a pitcher. Wolfe has stated that market size isn’t a consideration. He said at last month’s Winter Meetings that he’d advise Sasaki against simply signing for the largest bonus right now, as the difference between theoretical bonus offers would be “negligible” compared to the “long-term arc of [Sasaki’s] career,” which is where he’ll truly earn his money.

Teams will still very likely to try to swing some deals to add space to their international bonus pools as they try to do everything they can to make themselves most enticing, but at least based on Wolfe’s prior comments — and based on how much Sasaki is leaving on the table to come to North American ball right now — it’s fair to presume that Sasaki won’t simply be going to the highest possible bidder.

Trade activity regarding bonus pool space is just one manner in which the international amateur market — which opens on Wednesday — is being thrown into chaos. Will Sammon, Dennis Lin and McCullough report at The Athletic that the Padres have told some international prospects with whom they’d previously reached handshake deals that they’re free to again talk to other clubs. Both the Padres and the Dodgers have also asked some within their expected group of signees if they’d wait to sign until next year’s period, per the report. The Dodgers already lost one high-profile prospect from their class to the Pirates.

It should be noted that while Sasaki cannot formally sign a contract prior to Jan. 15 and must sign by Jan. 23 (the final date in his 45-day posting window), he can agree to terms on a deal prior to either of those dates. It’s not clear of the right-hander is still traveling to meet with prospective clubs in their home locales, but in theory he could make his decision at any point now and simply sign on the dotted line when the international period opens. In that sense, it’s similar to any other free agent; it’s commonplace for an agreement to be reached, leak out to the public and only be formally announced by the team a few days later after the physical has been completed.

As a reminder of how this will all work, Major League Baseball’s international amateur bonus system allows clubs to sign players from Latin America, Asia, Europe, etc. beginning at age 16. Clubs scout players — particularly those in Latin America — for years ahead of time, often agreeing to handshake deals more than a year (sometimes two or three years) in advance. The league hard-caps each team’s bonus pool. Clubs are permitted to trade for up to 60% of the value of their initial bonus pools.

This year’s bonus pools range from $5.146MM (Dodgers, Giants) to $7.555MM (Reds, Tigers, Marlins, Twins, Brewers, A’s, Mariners, Rays). In theory, one of those eight clubs with the maximum pool size could trade to balloon their pool to $12.088MM. There’s no indication any of those clubs will do so, however.

International “amateur” players can only sign a minor league deal for a bonus that fits within a team’s allotted pool space (plus any additional space acquired via trade). Because of the stringent criteria to be classified a “professional” rather than an “amateur,” Sasaki will fall into the amateur bucket. MLB stipulates that a player must be at least 25 years of age and have six or more seasons of experience in a prominent foreign professional league (e.g. Nippon Professional Baseball, Korea Baseball Organization, Mexican League, Chinese Professional Baseball League, Cuban National Series, etc.). Had Sasaki waited two years, he might’ve been in line for the type of contract received by Yoshinobu Yamamoto (13 years, $325MM). Instead, he’ll sign a minor league deal with a bonus valued south (likely well south) of that $12.088MM maximum.

Red Sox Notes: Arenado, Casas, Bregman, Sasaki

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Reports last month from MLB.com’s John Denton indicated that the Red Sox, Mets, Phillies, Padres, Dodgers, and Angels were six of the teams (and perhaps the only six teams) Nolan Arenado was willing to waive his no-trade protection to join, should the Cardinals work out an acceptable swap with any of these clubs.  Four weeks after that initial report, Boston remains “a preferred destination” for Arenado, according to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam.  What isn’t known, however, is if the Red Sox and Cardinals are anywhere close on a deal, or if the Sox are particularly motivated to bring Arenado to Beantown.

Acquiring Arenado would check a couple of big needs off of Boston’s offseason shopping list.  Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow reiterated earlier this week that the Sox were looking to add “a right-handed bat out of the middle of the lineup,” considering that the team is heavy with left-handed hitters.  Bringing one of the best defensive third basemen of all time to Fenway Park would instantly help Boston’s subpar infield defense, and Arenado would even be reunited with his good friend and former Rockies teammate Trevor Story.

One initial roadblock, of course, is the fact that the Red Sox already have a star third baseman in Rafael Devers.  Though Arenado has indicated that he is open to a position change in the right circumstance and Devers’ agent said in no uncertain terms in November that his client was staying at third base, it is hard to believe that Arenado would move off the hot corner in deference to a much weaker fielder in Devers.  If a trade did happen, Devers would presumably become the new first baseman or DH, though this creates other conflicts with Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida.

Both of those players, however, have been mentioned in trade talks this winter, and even in some of the same trade talks.  Casas is the far more valuable trade asset of the two, and while Breslow said “we’re certainly not shopping him,” that naturally doesn’t mean Casas is off limits.  Indeed, Cotillo and McAdam write that “there remains a belief in the industry that the Red Sox remain open to trading Casas, potentially for young pitching, to facilitate other roster maneuvering.”

It could be that the Sox are looking to first trade Casas before making any other moves, as their leverage in a Casas deal would be lessened if the Red Sox created a positional logjam beforehand.  Trading Casas purely as a vehicle to clear payroll space surely isn’t Breslow’s preference, which is why that aforementioned attempt to link Yoshida and Casas together was still part of an attempt to bring Luis Castillo from Seattle to Boston.

Payroll is also a major aspect of any Arenado trade, as the third baseman is owed $74MM over the remaining three seasons of his contract.  Between deferrals and the $10MM being covered by the Rockies, the present-day value of Arenado’s contract reportedly works out to $60MM.  The Cardinals’ chief incentive in trading Arenado is naturally to move as much of this money as possible, and the proposed deal with the Astros that Arenado blocked would’ve seen Houston take on either $45MM (as per Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of the Athletic) or $59MM (as per ESPN’s Jeff Passan) of the $60MM figure.

Theoretically, the Red Sox could absorb the entire contract and still stay under the $241MM luxury tax threshold, as RosterResource estimates Boston’s current tax number at just under $212MM.  It remains unclear exactly how much payroll capacity Breslow has been allotted this winter, as while the Sox have made overtures to several top free agents, their spending has been pretty modest to date.  The Red Sox could perhaps convince the Cardinals to take on a bigger chunk of Arenado’s salary (or at least closer to the $45MM figure) if better prospects are offered in return.  Chaim Bloom’s involvement in this speculative trade is an interesting wrinkle, as the incoming St. Louis president of baseball operations has plenty of knowledge of Boston’s farm system due to his past stint as the Red Sox CBO.

Trading for Arenado would come at a lesser overall cost than signing Alex Bregman, another top third baseman who remains on Boston’s radar.  That said, the Red Sox are known to still be in the running for Bregman, who has some notable ties to the Sox in manager Alex Cora (from their days together in Houston) and his longtime friend Walker Buehler, who just signed with the Sox himself before Christmas.  Buehler recently told Cotillo and other reporters that even in his brief time in a Sox uniform, “I have certainly made a pitch all over the place for [Bregman] to come to Boston.”

Turning to other Red Sox targets, it remains unknown if Boston is still one of the teams getting consideration from Roki Sasaki.  Earlier this week, Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe updated reporters on his client’s search for a Major League team, and didn’t give any indication that the right-hander was finished with his in-person meetings with interested clubs.

The Red Sox weren’t one of the seven teams known to have spoken with Sasaki already, and word hasn’t broken if a meeting has been scheduled or perhaps it is has already taken place since Wolfe’s last presser.  As of yesterday, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reported that the Sox hadn’t “been told they are out of” the running for Sasaki’s services, so the situation is still up in the air.

Wolfe: “Market Size Isn’t A Factor” In Sasaki’s Decision

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Wasserman’s Joel Wolfe, the agent for NPB star Roki Sasaki, tells SNY’s Andy Martino that “market size isn’t a factor either way” in the player’s decision. At the Winter Meetings, the agent opined that Sasaki may prefer going to a smaller market after clashing with media members in Japan. However, Wolfe stressed at the time that was his own opinion and that he and Sasaki had yet to discuss the matter in depth. It seems the pitcher isn’t giving that any weight.

Sasaki has conducted initial meetings with at least seven teams, most of whom are big-market franchises. Previous reports indicated he met with Dodgers, Rangers, Yankees, Mets and Cubs. The Giants are believed to have gotten a meeting as well. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports today that the Padres were also granted a meeting during Sasaki’s trip to the U.S. earlier this month.

Wolfe met with various reporters (including Tim Healey of Newsday and Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) this evening to provide details on the process. He indicated that all in-person meetings occurred at Wasserman’s offices in Los Angeles. Wolfe declined to specify how many teams were involved. He said that 20 clubs sent initial presentations via PowerPoint, video or books to express interest.

It seems that each meeting followed specific protocols. According to Wolfe, Sasaki specifically requested that teams did not bring any players. He also limited each conversation to the same amount of time (less than two hours), ostensibly to keep every team on an equal footing. As planned, Sasaki then returned to Japan for the holidays.

It isn’t clear if any teams beyond the reported seven have met with Sasaki. Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris said last week that Detroit made an initial pitch, though as of Friday, they hadn’t heard back on whether they’d get a meeting. Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said this morning that Boston was in a similar position (relayed by Alex Speier of the Boston Globe).

Wolfe did not close the door on granting another team or two an initial sit-down, though the agent indicated that they’d soon start to narrow the field (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive). Sasaki has not visited any team’s cities — aside from his stay in L.A. because Wasserman is headquartered there — but could do so after the New Year.

The signing period for international amateur free agents opens on January 15. That’s the date at which Sasaki is first eligible to sign. His 45-day posting window runs through January 23, however. Wolfe indicated that Sasaki may not have made a decision by the opening of the signing window and could take things right up to the posting deadline. While the agent didn’t highlight this as a reason, that would give MLB teams just over a week to trade for international signing bonus allotments that’d increase what they’re able to offer Sasaki. Teams can acquire up to 60% of the initial value of their respective bonus pools. Teams have varying initial pool allotments, all of which land between $5.1462MM and $7.5555MM.

Dodgers Meet With Roki Sasaki

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Reports regarding a number of clubs meeting with right-hander Roki Sasaki have trickled out in recent weeks, with the Mets, Yankees, Cubs, Giants, and Rangers all reportedly having received an in-person meeting with the right-hander as his unusual free agency begins to play out. Those five clubs have now been joined by a sixth, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports that the Dodgers have had an in-person meeting with the top international player available to teams this winter.

It’s hardly a surprise to hear that the Dodgers have met with the 23-year-old phenom. L.A. and San Diego have been viewed by many as clear favorites to land the right-hander since before it was clear he would be posted this winter and the chatter connecting Sasaki to the Dodgers in particular became loud enough that Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, issued a strong denial of the notion that a “handshake” agreement has already been reached with the club. MLBTR’s Steve Adams and Tim Dierkes were present for later comments by Wolfe regarding Sasaki’s free agency made at the Winter Meetings in Dallas, wherein Wolfe first revealed that a preliminary round of in-person visits at a central location would be taking place shortly after the Winter Meetings had come to a close. At the time, Wolfe noted that Sasaki planned to head back to Japan for a week or two afterwards to celebrate the holidays before returning for additional visits with teams ahead of the end of his posting window next month.

Given that timeline, any meetings that have occurred between Sasaki and teams to this point in the winter are likely to have been preliminary in nature, offering Sasaki an opportunity to become more familiar with the organizations he had at least some level of interest in. The reported group of six clubs to have reached that stage is not necessarily exhaustive, and it’s entirely possible that other clubs met with Sasaki prior to the holidays without the meeting being reported publicly. That could include the Padres, who have long been considered a potential front-runner for Sasaki’s services alongside the Dodgers.

The 23-year-old’s combination of incredible talent and unique circumstances figure to make him perhaps the single most sought-after player available this winter. The righty’s career 2.10 ERA in 394 2/3 NPB innings as a 23-year-old with his prime still ahead of him would surely land him firmly in the conversation for a massive payout in free agency on the heels of Sasaki’s countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto landing a 12-year, $325MM deal with the Ddogers last winter via the posting system. That sort of financial windfall won’t be available to Sasaki, however, as he is less than 25 years old and is therefore considered an international amateur per the rules of MLB. That means he’ll be signing a minor league contract with a bonus restricted to the signing club’s international bonus pool space, a reality which essentially removes the financial advantages and disadvantages clubs normally contend with in free agency. Shohei Ohtani famously went through the same process when he first jumped to MLB, and in doing so surprised the baseball world by landing with the Angels.

Virtually any team could benefit from adding a pitcher with Sasaki’s talent to their rotation, and the Dodgers are of course no exception. Even after signing Blake Snell to a five-year deal earlier this winter with veteran Clayton Kershaw widely expected to reunite with the club later in the offseason, the Dodgers’ rotation is severely lacking in certainty. Snell, Kershaw, Ohtani, Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May is a formidable group of hurlers who could all generate All-Star caliber performances in 2025, but each has major injury concerns attached to them and cannot be counted on for anything close to 30 starts in a season. Adding Sasaki to the mix would give the club yet another high-quality rotation option to work with, and the on-paper excess of starting pitching options should make it easy for L.A. to manage the right-hander’s innings after he was slowed by shoulder and oblique injuries of his own in recent years while pitching for NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines.

Tigers Moving Colt Keith To First Base

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Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris met with reporters this afternoon, shortly after the team finalized its one-year deal with Gleyber Torres. The team provided video of the 16-minute media session.

Harris confirmed the Tigers will play Torres at second base. Colt Keith will move to first base. Harris indicated that Keith could return to the keystone in future years but noted that “for 2025, our best team has Gleyber at second base and Colt at first base.” Keith spent the entire ’24 campaign at second base, where he logged nearly 1100 innings as a rookie.

Keith’s defensive grades were mixed. Statcast rated him as a slightly above-average second baseman. Defensive Runs Saved was a lot less enthusiastic, estimating he was eight runs below par. Scouting reports on the 6’2″, 211-pound infielder have pegged him as a bat-first player. Keith may be a capable defender at the keystone but wasn’t likely to develop into a Gold Glove winner.

That was the youngster’s first full season as a second baseman. Keith was drafted as a third baseman and continued playing the hot corner until midway through the ’23 campaign. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press wrote this morning that the Tigers weren’t willing to move Keith back to third base because of concerns about a prior labrum injury in his throwing shoulder.

Keith’s bat guarantees him a spot in the starting lineup. The lefty hitter had a .260/.309/.380 slash with 13 homers. Those numbers are weighed down by a terrible first few weeks. Keith had a .154/.222/.165 showing through the end of April. He hit .282/.328/.426 in 457 plate appearances from the start of May onward. Keith managed solid production against pitchers of either handedness. He should be in the lineup against almost all right-handed pitchers. Skipper A.J. Hinch could shield him from a few lefties, but the Tigers are unlikely to relegate Keith to a strict platoon role.

If the Tigers aren’t willing to play Keith on the left side of the infield, the Torres deal essentially forced him to first base. Torres has been a full-time second baseman since the Yankees moved him off shortstop in 2022. The Nationals showed interest in moving him to third base. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last night — before Torres signed with Detroit — that the infielder rebuffed Washington because he didn’t want to change positions.

Between the infield shakeup and some early offseason chatter about the Tigers potentially pursuing a veteran first baseman, it’s fair to wonder if former first overall pick Spencer Torkelson still has a role on the roster. Unsurprisingly, Harris suggested publicly that remains the case. Detroit’s front office leader said he spoke with Torkelson before the Tigers announced the Torres signing. “My message to Tork was: ’if you have a big offseason and a big spring training, there’s a role for you on this team.’ This team needs more right-handed power and we’ve seen Tork do that in the past,” Harris said.

The Tigers have sought right-handed hitting since the start of the offseason. Torres addresses that to some extent, though he’s more a solid hitter than a great one. His 38-homer showing from 2019 looks like a clear outlier. Torres respectively hit 24 and 25 homers in 2022 and ’23. That dropped to 15 round-trippers this year, in part because of an ice cold April in which he didn’t hit a single home run.

Torkelson connected on 31 homers with a .233/.313/.446 slash line in 2023. A strong second half provided optimism coming into this year. Instead, he stumbled to a .219/.295/.374 mark with 10 homers through 92 games — struggles that led the Tigers to option Torkelson to Triple-A Toledo for a stretch. A change-of-scenery trade still seems a distinct possibility.

Kerry Carpenter should get the bulk of playing time at designated hitter. The lefty-swinging Carpenter will be in the lineup at either DH or in the corner outfield against all righty pitching. He’ll probably be shielded from left-handers, but carrying Torkelson as a short-side platoon bat with limited defensive value isn’t a great use of a roster spot. Harris said today that the Tigers don’t view Torkelson as a candidate for any reps at third base or in the corner outfield, though he opined that “with the DH plate appearances and opportunity at first base, there are still plenty of plate appearances for him.”

Justyn-Henry Malloy, a righty hitter, is also in the DH/first base mix. Malloy has been a high-OBP bat in the minors. He hit just .203/.291/.366 with eight homers in 71 MLB games as a rookie. He still has a full slate of minor league options, but he’s another hitter without a clear defensive fit and a limited major league track record.

The Tigers are one of a handful of teams that has been recently linked to the top unsigned position player, Alex Bregman. While the Torres signing doesn’t directly impact third base, it deepens the infield more generally. Harris declined comment on Bregman, as the CBA prohibits team personnel from saying whether they’re in or out on specific free agents.

He indicated there’ll be more moves on the horizon while suggesting he’s encouraged by how the roster is shaping up. “The roster isn’t done yet. It’s not even 2025 yet. There’s still some time in the offseason to fully flesh out our roster. But when I stare at our group right now, this is the deepest we’ve ever been — on both sides of the ball,” Harris said.

Since signing Alex Cobb, the Tigers have downplayed their desire for another starting pitcher. The exception is their pursuit of NPB star Roki Sasaki, who’ll be limited to a signing bonus below $10MM because of his status as an international amateur. Harris said that the Tigers have presented an initial presentation to Sasaki’s representatives at Wasserman. He indicated that the Tigers are awaiting a response from Sasaki’s camp as to whether they’ll get an in-person meeting after the holidays.

Agent Joel Wolfe suggested at the Winter Meetings that Sasaki, who took preliminary meetings with a handful of teams last week, would begin narrowing the field after returning to Japan for the holiday. The Tigers don’t seem a likely landing spot for Sasaki, but they’d certainly welcome an opportunity to make a pitch to the 23-year-old righty.

Rangers Met With Roki Sasaki, Giants “Believed To Have Met” With Sasaki As Well

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Roki Sasaki won’t be eligible to officially sign with an MLB organization until mid-January, but that hasn’t stopped him from making headlines in December. Last week, it was reported that the NPB phenom had met with at least three MLB teams: the Yankees, Mets, and Cubs. Today, Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young confirmed that representatives from his club met with Sasaki last week (per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). Meanwhile, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports the Giants are “believed to have met” with Sasaki and his representatives.

It comes as no surprise that both teams are interested in Sasaki. The Giants could use more starting pitching, and they’re likely to add at least one starter this offseason, whether it’s Sasaki or someone else. The Rangers, on the other hand, already have a full rotation, but regardless, Sasaki is the kind of player any team would make room for. The two-time NPB All-Star is widely considered one of the most promising young pitchers in the world, and his earning potential is capped by the rules of international amateur free agency. As of right now, Texas can’t pay him any more than a $6,261,600 bonus, while San Francisco can’t offer him more than a $5,146,200 bonus.

The Rangers have long had an eye on Sasaki. At the beginning of the 2024 season, they were one of eight teams that reportedly sent representatives to watch Sasaki pitch in Japan. One can also understand why Sasaki would be interested in joining their club. Not only are the Rangers recent World Series winners, but they have been one of the most active teams this offseason on both the trade and free agent markets. Furthermore, Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe recently mentioned that Sasaki grew up “idolizing” numerous Japanese pitchers who made the jump from NPB to MLB. The first example Wolfe named was Yu Darvish, who signed with the Rangers when he first arrived stateside in 2012. Evan Grant points out that a pair of front office executives who were “key” in signing Darvish, assistant general manager Josh Boyd and Pacific Rim Operations Director Joe Furukawa, are still working in the organization.

As for the Giants, POBO Buster Posey has been particularly vocal about his interest in Sasaki. Speaking at the Winter Meetings, he told reporters (including Maria Guardado of MLB.com), “We’d be over the moon to add a guy like that.” While Posey only spoke of Sasaki’s talent, one has to presume he’s also captivated by the price tag. The Giants have been closely linked to free agent Corbin Burnes this winter. But Burnes is presumably looking to sign a contract worth well over $200MM. According to Susan Slusser, there are questions about whether or not ownership will be willing to foot that bill. In Sasaki, the Giants could add a top-of-the-rotation starter for a fraction of the market price.

From Sasaki’s point of view, it’s worth noting that San Francisco is much closer to Japan (and has a bigger Japanese population) than New York, Chicago, or Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington. Neither Sasaki nor Wolfe has suggested the pitcher has a geographic preference for where he signs, but Giants general manager Zack Minasian has expressed hope that San Francisco’s relative proximity to Japan will make “a big difference” (per Guardado). Minasian also mentioned the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park as a potential draw. After all, Sasaki is used to pitching in a very different offensive environment – runs are harder to come by in NPB. What’s more, he is presumably looking to put up numbers that are as impressive as possible. Six years in the future, those numbers will help him cash in big as an unrestricted free agent.

Ultimately, we still know very little about what Sasaki’s thinking or where he might end up. The Dodgers and, to a lesser extent, the Padres are frequently cited as the front-runners to sign him, but it’s not for nothing that he has met with so many other teams. (Nor is it clear if he has met with either the Dodgers or Padres yet.) Slusser identifies the Diamondbacks as another NL West suitor for his services, though it’s unclear if he has met with anyone from the team. Meanwhile, the Phillies are the only club we know for certain has not met with Sasaki. Last week, POBO Dave Dombrowski revealed that although the Phillies would love to speak with Sasaki, they have not been invited to do so.

Mets Meet With Roki Sasaki

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December 20: The Cubs are going to be meeting with Sasaki today, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score.

December 19: The Mets had a meeting with Roki Sasaki on Thursday, reports Andy Martino of SNY. They’re the second team that has been publicly revealed to meet with the NPB star. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) on Wednesday that Sasaki had scheduled an in-person meeting with the club. It’s not clear when that will take place.

Virtually every team would love to land Sasaki. It stands to reason that most, if not all, clubs have at least prepared a pitch they can make to the 23-year-old righty. Sasaki and his representatives at Wasserman presumably don’t intend to meet with every team over the next few weeks, though.

Agent Joel Wolfe spoke with media (including MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes and Steve Adams) at the Winter Meetings. Wolfe indicated that Sasaki would speak with teams in person at a central location in the United States throughout this week. He’s slated to return to Japan for the holidays but could come back to the U.S. to view the cities of the finalists thereafter.

This is only the first run of presentations. Many people consider the Dodgers or (to a lesser extent) the Padres to be the favorites, though Wolfe vehemently denied last month that there was any kind of handshake agreement with Los Angeles already in place. Wolfe suggested at the Winter Meetings that Sasaki could benefit from landing in a city that doesn’t have a large media contingent, though he stressed that was solely his opinion and that he and Sasaki had yet to discuss that in great detail.

Sasaki’s posting window opened on December 9. He must sign with an MLB team by January 23 but cannot sign until after next year’s international amateur period opens on January 15. He could reach an unofficial verbal agreement before that point, however. Sasaki’s bonus will be hard capped by MLB’s amateur signing limitations.

Teams can acquire up to 60% of their bonus allotment via trade. Those trades cannot begin until the 15th. Sasaki’s maximum potential bonus would be $12.0888MM. He’ll likely sign for a fair bit less than that, since it’d require a team with the highest initial pool (one of Milwaukee, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Miami, Cincinnati, Detroit, or the Athletics) to trade for the maximum amount and commit their entire pool to Sasaki. The Yankees and Mets each have just under $6.2616MM in their starting pool. If they traded for 60% more space, they’d be able to offer just over $10MM.

Agent Joel Wolfe On Roki Sasaki’s Free Agency

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Agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman held court with the media at this week’s Winter Meetings in Dallas to discuss a variety of topics, headlined by an overview of the plan for newly posted right-hander Roki Sasaki. MLBTR was on hand as Wolfe discussed Sasaki, the 23-year-old ace of Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines, who is now eligible to negotiate with all major league teams.

Because of his age, Sasaki is subject to Major League Baseball’s international amateur guidelines; more specifically, that means he can only sign a minor league deal and receive a bonus that fits within his team’s league-allotted, hard-capped bonus pool. Had Sasaki waited two years to come to the majors, he’d have been 25 and thus qualified as an amateur, possibly setting him up for a contract rivaling that of countryman and current Dodgers righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12 years, $325MM).

Asked why Sasaki chose to seek a posting now rather than come to the majors as a true free agent in two years — potentially leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table — Wolfe indicated he’d been asked that question “by everyone you can imagine” and attempted to answer to the best of his ability.

“It’s a difficult question to answer. Some of it is Japanese culture. Some of it is just Roki Sasaki. There are no absolutes in baseball and, through Roki’s eyes, there are no absolutes in life. … He does not take anything for granted. It is not an absolute lock, as some people in baseball have assumed, that two years from now he’s going to get a Yamamoto contract. Sometimes, baseball just doesn’t work out. You know, you look at the epidemic of injuries that pitchers suffer. You could have Tommy John surgery. He’s had two shoulder injuries. He’s had an oblique injury. Things may not go the way you want.

“The other thing is, it’s always been his dream to come to the major leagues, since he was in school. He’s grown up idolizing players like Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, Daisuke Matsuzaka. This is something he’s always wanted to do, and when he went to [the World Baseball Classic] and was around some of these major league players, it really rubbed off on him. He became sure that ’this is what I want to do as soon as possible.'”

With regard to what sort of factors Sasaki will prioritize in his free agency, Wolfe was more vague. He indicated that he and his client have yet to even discuss such factors at length, as Sasaki’s primary focus for so long has been on whether he’ll be posted at all. Wolfe noted that some teams have already submitted presentations for Sasaki but that in-person meetings have yet to begin. Wolfe himself said he’s seen “three or four” of the presentations that have been submitted but added that he expects more to file in. Asked how many teams scouted Sasaki this past season in Japan, Wolfe replied that at least half the league had done so.

Wolfe naturally declined to specify which teams had submitted initial presentations or scouted his client in person. The immediate focus for Sasaki will simply be learning about the teams, organizations and cities among which he’ll choose. He’s slated to arrive in the United States this week, and after reviewing the introductory presentations from interested teams, Sasaki and Wolfe will host teams for a first-round of in-person visits at a central location, beginning next week. Additional waves of team visits — perhaps some in the cities of the finalists — will take place down the road, but Sasaki also plans to return to Japan for a week or two during the upcoming holidays.

Asked specifically whether Sasaki might consider a small market, Wolfe said he it could possibly be of interest but emphasized that he had not confirmed as much with his client:

“Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think there’s an argument to be made that a small- or mid-market team might be more beneficial for him, as a soft landing, coming from Japan and what he’s been through and not having an enjoyable experience with the media — it might be. I’m not saying it will be, but I don’t know how he’s going to do it. It might be beneficial for him to be in a smaller market, but I really don’t know how he looks at it yet because I haven’t had a chance and discuss it with him [at great length].”

Wolfe spoke at multiple points, once doing so unprompted, about the media coverage of Sasaki in Japan, labeling it “in my personal opinion, a bit unfair” and candidly acknowledging that at times it could have a negative impact on the young right-hander:

“There has been a lot of negativity in the media directed at him because he has expressed interest in going to play for MLB at such a young age. That’s considered in Japan to be very disrespectful and sort of swimming upstream. There’s been a lot of things. A lot of people jumped on board, creating false rumors about him and his family, and it was detrimental to his mental state.”

Wolfe also emphasized that wherever Sasaki lands, it won’t be a pure short-term financial decision:

“Given that the gap in bonus pool amounts is so negligible, my advice to him is: don’t make decisions based on that. The long-term arc of your career is where you’re going to earn your money, so it’s probably not advisable to make a short-term decision in that regard. Take all the factors into consideration.”

Sasaki was officially posted for major league teams on Dec. 9, kicking off a 45-day negotiating period for big league clubs. He’ll have to have a contract finalized by Jan. 23. Wolfe noted that the signing is expected to occur after Jan. 15, so it can fall under the purview of the 2025 international free agent period, which begins that day. While Sasaki’s decision won’t be a purely financial one, Wolfe specified that MLB wanted to ensure as much of a “level playing field” as possible and ensure that both Sasaki and his former team would get the most beneficial deal possible, which is the posting was formalized on Dec. 9, giving him the chance to extend his free agency into next year’s period — when all 30 MLB teams will have more international resources available.

It’ll be a tough pill for the Marines to swallow, regardless. Under the NPB/MLB posting system, NPB players’ former teams receive a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any money thereafter. In Yamamoto’s case, for instance, his former club received a mammoth $54.375MM release fee from the Dodgers for agreeing to let Yamamoto go. Since Sasaki will be signing for a hard-capped bonus that’ll likely come in south of $10MM, the Marines will probably receive a release fee under $2MM.

Sasaki has pitched in parts of four NPB seasons and tallied 414 2/3 innings of 2.02 ERA ball with a 32.4% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate. Any team that signs him will have control of him for at least six seasons. He cannot sign an immediate extension following his minor league deal, pursuant to attachment 46 of the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, which indicates that any contracts deemed to be a circumvention of the CBA will not be permitted by the commissioner’s office. Wolfe noted that MLB teams cannot technically even promise Sasaki a spot on the big league roster when signing him, let alone broker an extension ahead of time at a to-be-determined date.

It’s possible, in theory, that Sasaki could sign an extension later in his young MLB career — likely more than a year or two down the road — but Wolfe pushed back on the notion that they’d even be amenable to that. “If he’s really, really good, the leverage would be on our side, so there wouldn’t be much incentive for us to sign a long-term extension.”

Roki Sasaki Officially Posted For MLB Clubs

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Right-hander Roki Sasaki has been officially posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (X link) and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link). That opens a 45-day window for Sasaki and his representatives to talk to MLB clubs, meaning he will need to have a deal in place by January 23 or else he will return to the Marines.

Since Sasaki is under 25 years old, having just turned 23, he is considered an amateur under MLB rules. As such, he must be signed as part of the international bonus pool system. The 2024 international signing period ends on December 15 and the 2025 period starts on January 15. All reporting has suggested that Sasaki will wait to sign until the new period starts up and each club gets a fresh pool of spending money, so he seems destined to sign somewhere between January 15 and 23rd, though the talks can now officially begin.

It seems to be a lock that Sasaki will be coming to the majors next year, the only question is who he will play for. Money won’t be the primary factor, as each club will be able to offer a roughly similar signing bonus. As laid out by Ben Badler of Baseball America, each club has a bonus pool in the $5-8MM range. Teams can trade for more pool money but can’t increase their initial allotment by more than 60%.

If money were Sasaki’s motivation, he would have waited another two years to make this move. Yoshinobu Yamamoto was posted after his 25th birthday and was able to secure a $325MM guarantee from the Dodgers, but Sasaki has insisted on making the move now because he presumably just wants to test his mettle at the world’s top level as soon as possible.

He also surely knows that he will eventually be rewarded as long as he keeps pitching well. Shohei Ohtani also came to the majors as an amateur and had to settle for a small bonus with the Angels, but he flourished and eventually got his big paycheck from the Dodgers once he accrued six years of big league service time.

Given those parameters, Sasaki will likely be deciding his new club based on other factors. It has been suggested by some observers that the Dodgers are a favorite, given that the franchise has had success in general but also especially with pitchers. It’s also possible that the presence of Ohtani and Yamamoto might be nice for Sasaki as he makes the move to a new country and new culture. Some have also suggested the Padres as a strong contender since Sasaki reportedly has a strong relationship with Yu Darvish and might prefer to be in a market away from Ohtani and Yamamoto, giving him a greater chance to step into a spotlight and parlay that into sponsorships opportunities while his direct earning power is relatively low. He may have other preferences based on geography or a team’s competitive outlook, though those can only be guessed.

No club can be officially ruled out, however, given the cheap sticker price and Sasaki’s quality as a pitcher. He has allowed only 2.10 earned runs per nine innings over his NPB career, striking out 32.7% of batters faced while only giving out walks 5.7% of the time. There are some slight workload concerns since Sasaki has had some injuries and never thrown 130 innings in a season, but any club would still love to take a chance on him for the small price of a few million dollars.

Whoever ultimately lands Sasaki, it could lead to domino effects that impact other clubs. MLB teams generally commit their bonus pools years in advance via verbal agreements. Players in countries like the Dominican Republic and Venezuela aren’t allowed to sign until they are 16 years old but they often have handshake deals worked out with clubs years in advance. Whichever club agrees to sign Sasaki, even for a bonus of just a few million, might have to renege on a few of those verbal agreements. That would be an awful situation for those players but could lead to them suddenly becoming available for other clubs. That could create further domino effects if some clubs then back out of their own verbal agreements in order to pivot to the newly available players.

At Baseball America, Badler recently took a look at the chaos that could ensue as the Sasaki situation plays out. That will have to wait, as it likely won’t be known for over a month which team Sasaki will choose.

Roki Sasaki Expected To Be Posted During Winter Meetings

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Roki Sasaki’s official arrival into the free agent market will likely take place during baseball’s Winter Meetings, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the star right-hander is expected to be posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines on Tuesday.  Once posted, Major League teams have 45 days to negotiate with Sasaki, and he’ll return to the Marines for the 2025 Nippon Professional Baseball season if no deal is reached.

It is seen as a virtual lock that Sasaki will be coming to MLB, given how the 23-year-old is so eager to pitch in the big leagues that he is leaving a fortune on the table by coming to North America so early in his career.  Since Sasaki is an international free agent who is less than 25 years old, he can only be signed using funds from a team’s international bonus pool.

The timing of the posting is noteworthy, as Sasaki’s 45-day negotiating window will stretch beyond January 15 and the opening of the 2025 international signing period.  Since the 2024 period ends on December 15 and teams have already basically spent everything in their budgets, it was widely expected that Sasaki will wait until after January 15 to sign so he could land at least a little more money.  Unofficially, teams have had deals in place with international prospects for years in advance of the 2025 int’l window, yet if necessary, it is expected that some teams will walk away from these under-the-table deals if it means giving their entire 2025 bonus pool over to Sasaki.

However, as Sasaki’s early foray to the big leagues indicates, money is far from his chief motivator.  Pitching in Major League Baseball will help Sasaki on the endorsement front, of course, but the circumstances of his arrival creates one of the more interesting free agent cases in recent years — arguably the most interesting since Shohei Ohtani’s arrival in the 2017-18 offseason, as Ohtani also came to the majors in advance of his age-23 season.

Though the financial playing field is fairly level for all 30 teams to make a play for Sasaki’s services, the big-spending Dodgers have long been seen a favorite to sign the right-hander, to the point that agent Joel Wolfe vehemently denied rumors that Sasaki and the Dodgers had already worked out some kind of unofficial agreement.  There’s obvious appeal for Sasaki in joining a championship team that already has such Japanese stars as Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the roster, though it isn’t known what exactly Sasaki is looking for in a Major League destination (geographic preferences, teams with a pre-existing link to Japanese baseball, smaller or larger markets, etc.).  As such, it is easy to imagine Sasaki ending up with the Padres, Mets, Giants, Cubs, or any of the several other teams already known to have some interest in his services.

The Marines’ own financial return from Sasaki’s posting will be limited, as per the terms of the MLB/NPB posting system.  In addition to paying Sasaki, a Major League team will have to pay the Marines an extra fee based on the amount of Sasaki’s contract — 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending.  Since Sasaki’s deal is naturally limited by the size of bonus pools, the Marines stand to gain less than $2MM for one of Japan’s top pitchers.

Over 394 2/3 career innings with the Marines, Sasaki has a 2.10 ERA, 32.73% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate.  His devastating splitter and high-90s (topping 100mph in past seasons) have left NPB batters fooled, most memorably during a perfect game in 2022 that saw Sasaki record 13 straight strikeouts and 19 strikeouts overall.  Sasaki then gained worldwide attention by almost throwing another perfect game in his next start, as he tossed eight perfect innings before being removed due to concerns over his pitch count (102 pitches).

The relative lack of mileage on Sasaki’s arm is both a boon for MLB teams eager to land such a talented pitcher at such a young age, and a bit of a concern about a possible lack of durability.  Sasaki’s 129 1/3 innings in 2022 remains his career high, and his 2024 season was limited to 111 innings due to a torn oblique and some type of injury to his right arm.  That said, these factors have done nothing to limit the hype on Sasaki, and his arrival in Major League Baseball lines up as one of the key stories of the offseason.

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