Relief Rumors: Capps, Jays, Dotel
Bullpen help is always in great demand as the deadline approaches, and 2010 is no exception. With all of the relief rumors circulating today, let's take a look at some of them:
- Earlier today, we heard that the competition for Scott Downs was heating up, but that some executives think the Jays are asking too much. Ken Rosenthal tweets that the Jays are asking a lot for all three of their available relievers — Downs, Kevin Gregg, and Jason Frasor. The Dodgers inquired but are now looking elsewhere as a result of those demands.
- Buster Olney has heard that several executives think the Nationals will trade Matt Capps. The Washington closer is having a strong rebound season, but makes $3.5MM and will be in line for a large raise through arbitration prior to the 2011 campaign. With the strong results seen from Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen this year, the Nats have quality in-house options to replace Capps. GM Mike Rizzo recently said he's not shopping Capps, but he's getting lots of calls.
- Troy Renck of the Denver Post writes that the Rockies had a scout at Octavio Dotel's last outing, but they're concerned about his durability and switching from a closer to setup role. According to Renck, teams are monitoring the Pirates to see if they'd make Evan Meek or Joel Hanrahan available as well.
Rockies Focusing On Bullpen Help
The Rockies' main focus heading into next Saturday's trade deadline will be on acquiring bullpen help, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post. We heard a few days ago that the Rockies were eyeing starting pitching and corner infielders along with relievers, but Renck indicates that their bullpen is the top priority at the moment.
According to Renck, Blue Jays relievers like Kevin Gregg and Scott Downs interest the Rockies, with SI.com's Jon Heyman tweeting of Colorado's interest in Gregg as well. Renck also expects the Rox to check in on the availability of Pirates' setup men Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan, but wonders if the price for Pittsburgh's and Toronto's relievers could be too high.
Check out our list of potentially available relievers here.
Giants Eyeing Will Ohman?
The Giants' search for another hitter has been well documented, but the team could be targeting more than just a bat. San Francisco is also looking into the possibility of acquiring Will Ohman, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.
Brian Sabean told listeners on his KNBR radio show Thursday that the team could use an experienced left-handed reliever, and Ohman fits the bill. Although the southpaw has had some control issues this year (5.1 BB/9), he has recorded a 2.57 ERA and struck out a batter per inning. He has also handled lefties well, holding them to a .531 OPS for the season.
If they don't acquire Ohman, the Giants could have a hard time finding another satisfactory left-handed arm for their bullpen. An already underwhelming relief market looks even more uninspiring when you consider the lack of lefties on the list. Besides Ohman and Scott Downs, whose price tag may be too high for the Giants, potentially available southpaws include Bruce Chen, Alan Embree, and Scott Schoeneweis.
Mets Considering Dotel, Downs
The Mets have discussed relievers Octavio Dotel and Scott Downs, report Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. John Harper of the New York Daily News reported yesterday that the Mets scouted Downs and Kevin Gregg over the weekend. The Mets agreed to terms with free agent reliever Chad Cordero earlier today.
The FOX writers say the Mets are now more focused on relievers than starters. While they maintain interest in Ted Lilly, they've cooled on Jake Westbrook, Ben Sheets, and Brett Myers. Speaking of Myers, ESPN's Adam Rubin learned that the Mets and Astros have had very little conversation.
Dotel came up through the Mets' system more than a decade ago and was traded in December of '99 to the Astros with Kyle Kessel and Roger Cedeno for Derek Bell and Mike Hampton. That deal was engineered by Steve Phillips and Gerry Hunsicker back when Dotel was a starter. If Hunsicker had been able to give the Yankees a window to negotiate with Hampton before his walk year, imagine how New York baseball history would've been altered.
This year as the Pirates' closer Dotel sports a 4.62 ERA, 10.9 K/9, and 4.1 BB/9 in 37 innings, with five home runs allowed and 20 saves in 25 attempts. He has a 2.60 ERA since May 4th. Still, as ESPN's Jerry Crasnick implies, Dotel's stats suggest he should be a righty specialist. By the way, Dotel's 2011 club option becomes mutual if he's traded.
Morosi noted on Twitter last night that the Pirates are also getting calls on Joel Hanrahan, "but the price remains very high." Armed with a 95.6 mph fastball, Hanrahan has 56 strikeouts in 40.6 innings. His 12.39 K/9 ranks behind only Carlos Marmol, Billy Wagner, and Brian Wilson in the National League.
Red Sox Rumors: Relievers, Beltre
Red Sox rumors from those covering the team…
- GM Theo Epstein said he isn't close to any trades, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo lists Scott Downs, Kerry Wood, Kyle Farnsworth, and David Aardsma as potentially available relievers, but says "the Sox aren’t crazy about bringing Aardsma back unless they could do so cheaply." Cafardo lists familiar names on the outfield front in David DeJesus and Cody Ross, while noting that Corey Hart "is likely out of Boston's range." Cafardo does not see the Sox pursuing a starting pitcher.
- MLB Network's Peter Gammons chimes in on Downs, tweeting, "before [the Yunel] Escobar deal, [the Blue Jays] wanted [Jose] Iglesias for Downs." That gives you an idea of the Jays' initial asking price for one of the best available relievers; the Dodgers, Yankees, and Phillies are also known to be interested.
- Gammons also tweets that the Rockies turned down an offer of Jed Lowrie for Chris Iannetta. We learned last night that the Sox are not currently pursuing Iannetta, however.
- Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald confirms yesterday's report that the Sox are interested in Florida's Leo Nunez. However, Lauber writes that, "they believe the Marlins will require a hefty return" for the righty reliever.
- Adrian Beltre is not thinking about his next contract yet, learned WEEI's Alex Speier.
Dodgers Interested In Many Pitchers
The Dodgers are interested in a variety of starters and relievers, according to Yahoo’s Tim Brown. They are calling to inquire about Roy Oswalt, Ted Lilly, Dan Haren, Jake Westbrook and Fausto Carmona. At one point, when Josh Byrnes was running the D’Backs, the Dodgers were discussing a deal for Haren, but those talks are no longer active.
The Dodgers have also expressed interest in available Blue Jays relievers such as Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs and Jason Frasor. GM Ned Colletti is attempting to improve his team’s bullpen, since the Dodgers are within striking distance of the NL West lead, though they currently trail the Padres, Rockies and Giants.
Red Sox, Yankees Interested In Scott Downs
The Red Sox and Yankees have "big-time" interest in Blue Jays reliever Scott Downs, according to Ed Price of AOL FanHouse. Downs, a free agent after the season, has a 2.56 ERA, 7.0 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9 in 38.6 innings this year.
Neither team's interest comes as a surprise. The Red Sox have been linked to Downs since this July 6th report from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The Yankees are known to be seeking relief help. The Phillies are also said to be interested in Downs. Last week on WEEI's The Big Show, former Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi praised Downs as a potential Red Sox acquisition but had harsh words for Jason Frasor and Kevin Gregg.
ESPN's Buster Olney had an interesting series of tweets today on Downs, where he explained that the lefty might be hurt by Type A designation if he is offered and turns down arbitration after the season. Perhaps Downs' agent at CAA will advise the pitcher to accept if offered. A look at our latest Elias Rankings projections shows that Matt Guerrier, Frank Francisco, Dan Wheeler, Arthur Rhodes, and Pedro Feliciano might be in the same boat as Type As, though I imagine many will not be offered arbitration.
Blue Jays Make Gregg, Frasor, Downs Available
10:47am: The Jays have made Gregg, Frasor, and Scott Downs available, reports WEEI's Rob Bradford. Bradford feels that the Red Sox are a potential match for one of them.
Frasor's control has slipped this year, especially against lefties. He's getting more groundballs than last year, though more hits have dropped in too. Frasor has been better lately and remains a useful arm. He has $1.21MM remaining on his contract. At the moment, he profiles as a Type B free agent after the season. Downs, meanwhile, has trimmed walks and hits compared to '09. The lefty is owed $1.83MM; MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith analyzed the potential Type A free agent a week ago.
7:50am: The Blue Jays have made closer Kevin Gregg available, tweets Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun. Elliott adds that the Jays re-routed a scout to Seattle for the final two games of this weekend's Yankees-Mariners series, implying that the Jays might consider the Yanks a potential match for Gregg.
Gregg doesn't appear concerned with trade rumors, based on his comments to MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith Saturday. Gregg's one-year, $2.75MM deal with the Blue Jays seemed curious in February, but he was installed as the team's closer in April when Jason Frasor struggled. Gregg has a 3.67 ERA, 9.7 K/9, and 4.7 BB/9 with three home runs allowed in 34.3 innings this year. He's saved 20 of 23 and bumped his groundball rate from last year.
After the season Gregg's team can choose to retain him for zero, one, or two years. His club option is for $4.5MM in 2011 or $8.75MM for 2011-12. He currently profiles as a Type B free agent, and an arbitration offer seems possible. Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos figures to aim for more than the value of one supplemental draft pick if he trades Gregg now. Gregg has $913K remaining on his contract, plus a potential $750K buyout on the option.
Phillies Interested In Scott Downs
The Phillies have shown interest in Blue Jays left-hander Scott Downs, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Teams have had interest in Downs all year, though it has picked up recently, according to one of Morosi’s sources.
Downs projects to be a Type A free agent after the season, according to our latest Elias rankings. This means the Blue Jays will have the chance to obtain draft picks for him after the season. Downs, arguably the best left-handed reliever on the market, has substantial trade value.
The 34-year-old has a 2.65 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 37.1 innings this year. He earns $4MM in 2010, about $1.9MM of which remains.
What The Elias Rankings Mean For Trade Candidates
Many of this year's trade candidates share a distinguishing characteristic: they are about to become free agents. After the season, their teams will decide whether to offer arbitration and have a chance at top picks in next year's draft. A player's ranking can contribute to or detract from his trade value, so let's take a look at some of this year's trade candidates and see where they place under our reverse-engineered Elias rankings.
We'll start with some trade candidates who project as Type A free agents. If these players decline arbitration offers to sign elsewhere, their former teams will receive two top picks in the 2011 draft. These players are sometimes more inclined to accept arbitration, since their Type A status can intimidate would-be suitors who don't want to surrender a pick (just ask Juan Cruz and Orlando Hudson).
It's important to note that teams don't necessarily give first rounders up to sign the players below. The first 15 picks are protected and sometimes teams sign more than one Type A player. Say the Red Sox sign Adam Dunn (75.8 ranking) and Scott Downs (74.6 ranking) and both were offered arb. The Nationals would get Boston's top pick and the Blue Jays would get their second-best pick because Dunn ranks higher than Downs. In that instance, Downs only costs the Red Sox a second rounder.
Once a team signs one Type A free agent, the cost of signing a second and a third drops, since the club is giving up lesser picks. Rafael Soriano (88.9), Vladimir Guerrero (88.6), Carl Crawford (85.5), Javier Vazquez (79.0) and Adrian Beltre (78.9) could all get arbitration offers this winter, so Type As, especially lower-ranked players, don't always cost a first rounder. With that in mind, here are some trade candidates who currently have Type A status:
- Cliff Lee (91.8) – He is getting an arbitration offer and turning it down. Lee's Type A status boosts his trade value.
- Jayson Werth (86.0) – Same goes for Werth.
- David DeJesus (78.3)- Matt Klaassen of FanGraphs argued yesterday that the Royals shouldn't offer arbitration, since DeJesus would accept. It's entirely possible that the Royals can get more value for DeJesus in a trade, but I don't think DeJesus would necessarily accept arbitration. He will easily be a top-five outfielder if his team lets him hit free agency instead of picking up his $6MM option. And if he accepts? The team has an above-average outfielder on an affordable one-year deal.
- Adam Dunn (75.8) – He will get an arbitration offer and will probably turn it down. Dunn's Type A status boosts his trade value.
- Scott Downs (74.6) – Earlier this week, I suggested the Blue Jays could offer Downs arbitration and either collect the picks or pay him $5MM or so in 2011. There's a good chance that Downs accepts an offer of arbitration, but the chance at two top picks probably makes that a risk worth taking.
- Miguel Tejada (74.4) – It's hard to imagine teams forfeiting picks to sign Tejada. It seems unlikely that a team would offer arbitration. Tejada's Type A status doesn't affect his trade value (and he is only a couple points away from becoming a Type B).
- Ted Lilly (74.3) – Lilly will be a top free agent starter after the season, so the Cubs will likely offer arbitration. Lilly's Type A status boosts his trade value.
And here are some players who currently project as Type B free agents. These players will bring their former teams a supplementary round pick if they decline arbitration to sign elsewhere. But teams don't have to give up their picks to sign Type Bs, which makes these players appealing as free agents.
- John Buck – J. P. Arencibia is Toronto's catcher of the future, but it's easy to imagine the Blue Jays (or another team) offering Buck arbitration after the season. It worked last year, when the Jays got a supplemental rounder for losing Rod Barajas. Buck wouldn't make much through arbitration, so his Type B status boosts his trade value.
- Jose Guillen – It's extremely hard to imagine the Royals offering arbitration. His Type B status does not affect his trade value.
- Mike Lowell – Same goes for Lowell.
- Kevin Millwood – And for Millwood.
- Jason Frasor – Frasor makes only $2.65MM this year, so he wouldn't be making an overwhelming amount even if he accepted arbitration. Obtaining a pick for Frasor would be a plus, so his Type B status helps his trade value.
- Derrek Lee – Given Lee's struggles and salary, it's hard to imagine his team offering arbitration.
- Cristian Guzman – Guzman makes $8MM this year and though players aren't guaranteed raises via this kind of arbitration, Guzman isn't even worth his current salary on the open market. An arbitration offer seems unlikely, so his status doesn't affect his trade value.
- Octavio Dotel – Like Frasor, Dotel could see an offer of arbitration, depending on how he finishes the season, so his Type B status helps his trade value. The Pirates have a $4MM option for Dotel that becomes mutual if he is traded.
- Aaron Heilman – It seems unlikely that the D'Backs would feel comfortable offering Heilman arbitration, given his inconsistent performance in 2010, so his status doesn't help his trade value.