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Scott Downs

Rosenthal On D’Backs, Dunn, Blue Jays, Morgan

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In his latest column, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that it's unlikely the Diamondbacks make a huge splash before the trade deadline. With interim GM Jerry DiPoto not expected to hold the position past this season, Rosenthal is skeptical that the D'Backs would give him the reins to blow up the roster. Although Arizona could trade potential free agents like Adam LaRoche, Chad Qualls, and Aaron Heilman, Rosenthal thinks the team probably won't move Dan Haren, Kelly Johnson, or Stephen Drew. Here are a few other notes from the piece:

  • According to a rival club offical, the Nationals were asking the White Sox for either Gordon Beckham or Carlos Quentin in exchange for Adam Dunn.
  • If the Blue Jays don't receive satisfactory offers for their free-agents-to-be, the club may take the same approach they did last year, when the departures of Marco Scutaro and Rod Barajas earned them draft picks. Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, and John Buck all project to be Type As or Bs, and could potentially net the Jays multiple 2011 compensation picks.
  • When teams call the Jays to talk trades, Toronto's young starting rotation is the most frequent topic of conversation.
  • Some members of the Nationals organization wouldn't mind trading Nyjer Morgan to open up center field for Roger Bernadina.
  • Within seven to ten days, the Marlins should make a decision on whether or not to be sellers.
  • If Buck Showalter lands the Baltimore managerial job, former Orioles such as Bill Ripken and B.J. Surhoff would be candidates to join his staff.

Red Sox Weighing Bullpen Options

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The Red Sox are interested in Scott Downs and have also had internal discussion about acquiring Kerry Wood, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. However, given the price tags on Downs, Wood, and other veteran arms, along with the Red Sox' reluctance to part with prospects for relievers, the team may just attempt to shore up their bullpen internally instead.

Cafardo suggests that the Sox are trying to find their "2010 Billy Wagner," a reference to the club's late-season bullpen addition last season. After coming to Boston from the Mets, Wagner posted a 1.98 ERA in 15 appearances. The Sox could once again be in the market for a southpaw this year, with Hideki Okajima battling back issues. Both Downs, whose trade value we looked at yesterday, and the Orioles' Will Ohman may be options for Boston.

If the Sox don't trade for a reliever, help could come from the minors, in the form of Michael Bowden. Cafardo notes that the team has moved the right-hander from the Triple-A rotation to the bullpen, a move that suggests a call-up may be in his near future.

Scott Downs’ Trade Value

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There's always demand for quality left handers at the trade deadline, but this year, they're in short supply. Bruce Chen, Will Ohman and Javier Lopez could probably be acquired and Alan Embree and Scott Schoeneweis could be signed as free agents. There are not many left-handers to choose from, and that only increases Scott Downs' trade value. 

The Blue Jays, below .500 after a June-long slump, would presumably listen on Downs, who hits free agency after the season. The 34-year-old lefty has an affordable $4MM salary and some impressive stats. In 35.1 innings, he has a 2.80 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. He is allowing less than one hit per inning pitched and boasts a characteristically high 55% ground ball rate. He's arguably the best left-handed reliever available this summer.

The Blue Jays have no reason to settle for anything less than a highly-touted prospect. Not only is Downs pitching well, he now ranks as a Type A free agent in the latest Elias rankings. That means the Jays can obtain two high picks in next year's draft if Downs turns down an offer of arbitration to sign elsewhere. We can't assume that the Blue Jays are willing to offer Downs arbitration, but they have just $39MM committed to next year's payroll, so paying Downs $5MM or so in 2011 appears possible under the team's budget. 

Essentially, the Blue Jays can't lose as long as Downs stays healthy and continues pitching well enough to maintain his Type A status. Either someone offers a compelling package and the Blue Jays get talent now, or they keep Downs and offer arbitration. If he accepts the offer, the Jays have a quality reliever on a one-year deal. If he declines and signs elsewhere, they have two top picks in next year's draft.

Rosenthal On Padres, Uggla, Blue Jays, Nats

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Let's dive into the latest edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..

  • The Padres are seeking a durable starting pitcher as they approach the deadline.  The Padres know that they need a bat but their offense is so weak that they fear a lack of quality starting pitching might derail them faster than a lack of hitting.  Durable starters are hard to come by on the trade market, but the Diamondbacks' Edwin Jackson could be a fit.
  • The Marlins changed skippers thinking that they were a better team than they've shown, but that hasn't been the case thus far.  Unless they rally, the club will end up as sellers.  Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, Cody Ross, and Ricky Nolasco all hold value.  Nolasco's name hasn't come up much, but he could be one of the better starting pitchers on the market.  Uggla and his big bat are still sought after, even though his salary could rise to about $10MM in arbitration next season.
  • Toronto's Shaun Marcum could still be a trade chip, even after going on the disabled list with inflammation of the right elbow.  The club expects him to be back before the All-Star break and if so, he should be one of the better starters available.  The Jays could be active sellers as they have several more attractive pieces.  Relievers Scott Downs and Jason Frasor are both potential free agents.  Shortstop Alex Gonzalez and outfielder Jose Bautista could also get some bites.
  • Nats GM Mike Rizzo told Rosenthal that the club is getting interest in five or six players in trade discussion. While Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham are getting all the buzz, Cristian Guzman and Adam Kennedy could be attractive to teams in need of infield help.  Matt Capps could be a trade chip as well now that he has recovered from his slump.  They control the closer through next season, though they may look to cash in on his value while it is peaking.

Olney’s Latest: Oswalt, Mariners, Jays, Sonnanstine

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In today's blog post at ESPN, Buster Olney wrote about the major hurdles the Astros will face in trying to trade Roy Oswalt. The biggest obstacles are Oswalt's salary (owed $29MM through 2011), his history of back trouble, his full-no trade clause, and the fact that teams are coveting young players more than ever and might not be willing to give up a package good enough to convince owner Drayton McLane to move one of his star players.

As one GM put it, "a no-trade clause doesn't become a must-trade clause." Another believes they won't "just give the guy away." Here's the rest of Olney's rumors…

  • The Mariners continue to search for a hitter.
  • Toronto's asking for one or two prospects for relievers Jason Frasor and Scott Downs, but rival executives believe that asking price to be very high.
  • Some executives believe that the Rays will make Andy Sonnanstine available at some point this summer. Olney suggests the Mets as a potential fit, noting that there were brief talks between the two teams about a trade this offseason.

Odds & Ends: Orioles, Scheppers, Pirates, Blue Jays

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As we prepare for a weekend of watching AL pitchers take ineffective swings, here are a few news items…

Cafardo’s Latest: Blue Jays, Dunn, Washburn, Dukes

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In his column today for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo explores the effect of Arizona's controversial immigration law on baseball. He also shares a few notes from around the league:

  • The Blue Jays' huge collection of scouts should have them well-prepared to deal at this year's trade deadline. Cafardo names a slew of players who the Jays could try to move if they're out of playoff contention, noting that the club will "likely listen to anything." The list includes Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, Alex Gonzalez, Scott Downs, Jose Bautista, John Buck and Jose Molina.
  • Molina has thrown out eight of 11 basestealers so far this year, a statistic that could intrigue the Red Sox. However, Cafardo says the Sox "will never deal for a catcher who is all defense, no offense."
  • Cafardo suggests that Adam Dunn would be a good fit at DH for the Red Sox in the post-David Ortiz era.
  • Jarrod Washburn's time off this spring has given him a few extra weeks to recover from offseason knee surgery, though now teams will have to assess how long it will take Washburn to be major league ready. According to Cafardo, the Dodgers' pitching issues make them look every day like a better fit for Washburn.
  • A source tells Cafardo that Elijah Dukes' rumored deal with the Tabasco Olmecas of the Mexican League fell through after Dukes failed to show up for a reporting date. Cafardo indicates that the 25-year-old could end up spending the year away from baseball.

Blue Jays Discussing Bullpen Trades

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Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has discussed trade proposals for relievers Scott Downs and Jason Frasor within the last few weeks, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.

Morosi notes that the recent struggles of Downs, Frasor, and the rest of the Blue Jays' bullpen could negatively impact Toronto's trade leverage. The Jays' 5.69 relief ERA ranks next-to-last in the American League, and the normally reliable Downs and Frasor have played a significant part in the bullpen's problems. Downs has a 5.63 ERA in eight innings, while Frasor has compiled a 9.35 ERA in 8.2 IP. It's probably too early to be concerned though — Downs has been consistently effective in Toronto, recording a 2.26 ERA from 2007 to 2009, and Frasor's .527 BABIP so far has inflated his ratios.

The Jays aren't expected to contend this year, meaning they could auction off free-agents-to-be like Downs and Frasor before July's trade deadline. Morosi names the Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Reds, Marlins, Brewers, and Rays as some teams that could be in need of bullpen help this season.

Cafardo’s Latest: Downs, Cruz, Dye, Sheffield

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In his newest piece for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo discusses Manny Ramirez's Hall of Fame chances, concluding that the slugger's positive test for a banned substance last season may keep him out of Cooperstown. Here are a few other topics that Cafardo's column explores:

  • The Phillies would love to add a left-hander to their bullpen, particularly while J.C. Romero remains on the shelf. They're looking at Scott Downs, but given the Blue Jays' solid start, the team may hang on to him for the time being. When the Jays are ready to sell, Downs should provide a decent return.
  • Juan Cruz is another reliever on the trade market, albeit a less impressive one. He'll earn $3.75MM this year for the Royals, who may have to eat most of that salary to pull off a deal.
  • Jermaine Dye and Gary Sheffield should sign somewhere soon. When asked his thoughts on Orlando Hudson's insinuation that racism factored into Dye's and Sheffield's unemployment, Sheffield said he appreciated Hudson's concern, but "I'm not going to comment."
  • Cafardo names Jerry Manuel and Dave Trembley as two managers who could be on the hot seat and speculates about who would be next in line to replace the skippers. Cafardo points out that there are plenty of ex-managers available who have history with Orioles president Andy MacPhail, while for the Mets, Bob Melvin might be "the logical successor."

Top Trade Chips: AL East

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Let's finish off our series with the toughest division in baseball…

  • Blue Jays: The Jays already traded away most of their top pieces, but they still have three desirable relievers in Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, and Kevin Gregg. All three can become free agents after the season. There might be some interest in first baseman Lyle Overbay, who will also hit the open market after the season. 
  • Orioles: Considering how poorly he pitched before landing on the DL, I'm sure a large part of the Baltimore faithful wouldn't mind seeing Mike Gonzalez go. Alas, that won't happen anytime soon. There always seems to be interest in Luke Scott, who still has two more years of team control left. If they decide to sell at mid-season, Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Guthrie could find their way onto the block. 
  • Rays: The Rays are a player development machine, and they have enough young players to get get pretty much anyone they want. They have enough depth that they could trade one of Reid Brignac or Sean Rodriguez plus one of Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, or Jeremy Hellickson and not miss a beat. If they fall out of it and decide to sell, it doesn't get much better than Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, and Carlos Pena. I believe the term is "stacked."
  • Red Sox: Boston has held onto Clay Buchholz for this long, but with his name appearing so frequently on the rumor circuit, it really wouldn't be surprising if they moved him for a big time player. They might still be able to find a taker for Mike Lowell, and there would be interest in Manny Delcarmen if he were made available. They did lose a valuable chip when Junichi Tazawa went down with Tommy John surgery. 
  • Yankees: They seem unwilling to trade either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain, so their best chip is the semi-blocked Jesus Montero. Of course, the Yankees have the ability to absorb even the ugliest of contracts, so maybe we should consider that their biggest trade chip.
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