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Red Sox Notes: Baez, Rodriguez, Matz

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The Red Sox are among the teams with some level of early interest in free-agent infielder Javier Baez, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported this week. Boston already has a high-end shortstop in place, but Xander Bogaerts can opt out of the remaining three years and $60MM of guaranteed money on his contract at the end of the 2022 season. Baez, 29 next month, is also a markedly better defender at shortstop, which could open the possibility of the Sox realigning their infield in some capacity.

Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has made it clear that his front office values defensive versatility since taking the reins in Boston — evidenced by the signings of Enrique Hernandez, Marwin Gonzalez and Danny Santana. Of course, Baez figures to be in an entirely different stratosphere from a salary standpoint, and the Sox also now have some additional needs on the pitching staff with Eduardo Rodriguez officially joining the Tigers on a five-year contract. The Red Sox already have about $173MM in projected 2022 payroll at this point, plus about $184MM of luxury-tax obligations, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.

Bloom spoke this week about the difficulty of losing Rodriguez, candidly acknowledging that the left-hander’s market simply reached a point where the Sox were no longer certain that making the top offer “was the best use of our resources” (link via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo). That said, the decision did not come lightly for Bloom and his colleagues — some of whom have been with Rodriguez since he debuted in 2015.

“We were certainly fighting our emotions on that the whole way because of how highly we think of him and how much we enjoyed having him here,” said Bloom, who went on to add that the club was happy to see the market reward Rodriguez after a trying 2020 season lost to Covid-19 and myocarditis:

“There were points in time where we weren’t even sure if he was going to be able to play again, so to see him come back this year, do what he did, and now to have the market reward him for it, it’s a really great story.”

Nevertheless, with Rodriguez out the door, the Sox figure to explore other avenues to address a rotation that currently projects to include Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock. It’s an undeniably talented mix, but neither Houck nor Whitlock has actually produced for a full big league season while shouldering a starter’s workload. Sale, meanwhile, will be in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, while Eovaldi has a lengthy injury history of his own. The 28-year-old Pivetta (29 in February) was solid in 30 starts last year, but his career has been punctuated by inconsistency thus far.

With those questions in mind, southpaw Steven Matz is among the free agents with whom the Red Sox are in contact, tweets Cotillo. The 30-year-old Matz just wrapped up a strong season with the division-rival Jays, for whom he pitched to a 3.82 ERA with a 22.3% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate through 150 2/3 frames. Toronto declined to issue a qualifying offer to Matz, meaning he won’t come with any draft compensation for the Red Sox or any other interested parties. It’s been a robust market for starters so far, which bodes well for Matz and other arms remaining on the market — particularly with quite a few big-market clubs like Boston still on the hunt for arms.

Cardinals Want To Bring Back Luis Garcia, Add Rotation Arm

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The Cardinals are working to re-sign late-inning reliever Luis Garcia after the hard-throwing righty’s breakout season in St. Louis, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Even if the Cardinals do bring back Garcia, they will still target at least one additional potential high leverage reliever. Alex Reyes handled much of the high leverage workload last year, but they’d like to give Reyes an opportunity to claim a rotation spot.

As for Garcia, he has long struggled with his command, but he held it together for a career-low 5.9 percent walk rate in his 34 appearances with the Cardinals last season. That kind of control with a sinking fastball averaging more than 98 mph is a killer combination that helped Garcia notch a 25.2 percent strikeout rate and 3.24 ERA/2.72 FIP in 33 1/3 innings. His innings weren’t cheap ones either, as Garcia managed to save a pair of games and preserve leads enough to earn 12 holds.

Along with Garcia and another late inning arm, Goold also mentions sinkerballing starters like Steven Matz or Alex Cobb as a potential target for the Cardinals. Both are coming off relatively strong seasons and would likely benefit from pitching in front of the Gold Glove laden infield in St. Louis. The Cardinals have starting options with Dakota Hudson coming back from Tommy John and Reyes potentially moving into the rotation, but with deadline acquisitions Jon Lester and J.A. Happ now free agents, there are a fair number of innings to go around.

Cardinals Notes: Reyes, Hicks, Scherzer, Matz

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The Cardinals’ rotation for 2022 is 80% set, with Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson pencilled into four out of the five slots. However, that last spot could still seemingly go in many different ways, either with internal or external options. Derrick S. Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch spoke to the team’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about the various paths they’re choosing between.

The club is apparently giving consideration to Alex Reyes and Jordan Hicks, both of whom having been primarily working as relievers in recent years and are questionable fits for rotation jobs. Reyes had an excellent year out of the bullpen in 2021, eventually becoming the team’s closer. In 72 1/3 innings, he had an ERA of 3.24 with a strikeout rate of 30% and notched 29 saves. However, that also came with a walk rate of 16.4%, around twice the league average. He also comes with a lengthy injury history that has limited his contributions in his career thus far. Those 72 1/3 innings from this year are the most he’s thrown since 2016, when he threw 111 1/3 between Triple-A and the big leagues, which is the most he’s logged in a single season. That was followed by a completely lost season in 2017 and three straight years of just a few dozen each.

The situation with Hicks is somewhat comparable, as he had an excellent season in 2018, throwing 77 2/3 innings out of the bullpen with a 3.59 ERA. However, he was limited to 28 2/3 innings in 2019 before having to undergo Tommy John surgery, opted out of 2020 and then was limited by injuries to just 13 innings in 2021, between Triple-A and the big leagues. Expecting him to jump into a rotation job at this point seems like a tall ask, and Mozeliak admitted as much. “My guess is no better than yours or anybody else’s,” he said, in regards to what Hicks could provide in the future. “For him to go out and pitch north of 100 innings would be maybe putting him in a difficult spot.”

In addition to those two, Goold also lists Jake Woodford, Johan Oviedo and Genesis Cabrera as those who are in the mix. Despite all of those candidates, the club is still looking into external options, which is understandable based on how 2021 went. Multiple injuries caused the club the struggle in the first half, leading them to make the mid-summer additions of Jon Lester, J.A. Happ and Wade LeBlanc. Although that helped stabilize the staff and get the club into the playoffs, they’re all now free agents. As Mozeliak puts it, “Last year, we thought we had nine or 10. I think you’ve got to have some protection going in regardless of what we say we’re going to get them to do… Having some additional arms is healthy.”

Goold’s report says that free agent Max Scherzer “would entertain an offer from the Cardinals”, which is notable because Scherzer was apparently unwilling to waive his no-trade clause to join them this past summer, preferring to become a member of a West Coast club. However, now that he is trying to maximize his earning potential, it makes sense that he would try to keep as many buyers at the table as possible, in order to ensure healthy bidding. Even if Scherzer is genuinely open to working in Missouri, where he was born and raised, the club may have trouble fitting him into the budget, as their 2022 payroll is currently over $142MM, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s around $20MM shy of 2021’s opening day payroll, which was a franchise record, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Scherzer is likely to command much more than that for an annual salary, with MLBTR recently predicting he garners a contract of $120MM over three years, an annual average value of $40MM.

A pitcher who will come much cheaper is Steven Matz, who was at the GM Meetings yesterday, according to Tim Healey of Newsday. Healey lists the Cardinals as being interested in his services, along with the Red Sox, Angels and Dodgers. MLBTR predicted Matz to land a deal of $27MM over three years, an AAV of $9MM which would certainly fit into the Cards’ payroll much more neatly than Scherzer’s. Matz had a solid year for the Blue Jays in 2021, throwing 150 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.82. He figures to be popular among teams hesitant to surrender draft picks, as he didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the Jays.

Red Sox Notes: Whitlock, Matz, Arroyo

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The Red Sox are making an effort to retain free agent starter Eduardo Rodríguez, but the club has myriad avenues to potentially address their rotation. Right-hander Garrett Whitlock could be an option, as chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) the team is open to the possibility of stretching him out as a starter in 2022.

The 25-year-old Whitlock spent essentially his entire career in the Yankees’ system as a starter, topping out with 120 2/3 innings across three levels in 2018. After plucking him away from their archrival in the Rule 5 draft, the Sox moved him into a bullpen role. That’s typical for a Rule 5 draftee, since teams often prefer to break those unproven players in with lower-leverage innings. But Whitlock proved to be one of the better Rule 5 selections in recent memory, earning himself a role of higher import as he continued to thrive. Ultimately, Whitlock tossed 73 1/3 innings across 46 relief outings (with another 8 1/3 frames in five postseason appearances). He posted a 1.96 ERA with a strong 27.2% strikeout percentage and a tiny 5.7% walk rate.

Moving Whitlock out of the relief role in which he’s been so effective isn’t without risk, but public scouting reports have long suggested he might be a viable starter. His debut campaign offered support for that idea, as Whitlock worked with a three-pitch mix and demonstrated plus control. He did have pronounced platoon splits — lefties hit .293/.349/.475 off him, while righties managed just a .199/.243/.278 mark — that could suggest he’s better deployed situationally, but it’s sensible for the front office to keep the rotation possibility open.

Looking outside the organization, the Sox are also among the teams with early interest in free agent starter Steven Matz, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Boston is certainly one of many clubs in contact with the southpaw’s representatives at Icon Sports Management, and Sherman adds the Tigers and Angels as other potential suitors, in addition to the incumbent Blue Jays.

Matz is coming off his third solid season in the past four years, having worked to a 3.82 ERA/4.12 SIERA across 150 2/3 frames with Toronto. The Jays didn’t issue him a qualifying offer, so signing Matz wouldn’t cost a team draft pick compensation. Entering his age-31 campaign, he looks to have a strong case to land a three-year deal.

While the Sox have seemingly focused primarily on the rotation during the first couple days of the offseason, Bloom tells Speier (separate post) that Boston could look into options at second base as well. It doesn’t seem bolstering the keystone is an absolute must, though, as Bloom went on to express faith in Christian Arroyo’s ability to handle the position. The 26-year-old was limited to just 181 plate appearances this past season because of injuries, but he hit at a slightly above-average level (.262/.324/.445) in that limited time. Jonathan Villar, Josh Harrison and César Hernández are among a few of the lower-cost free agent options available.

Blue Jays To Issue Qualifying Offers To Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray; Steven Matz Will Not Receive QO

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As expected, the Blue Jays will issue qualifying offers to Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (all Twitter links).  The Jays opted against issuing the QO to Steven Matz, however, and Heyman adds that Matz also recently turned down a multi-year contract offer from Toronto.

There was no doubt Semien and Ray would receive qualifying offers, as two of the top members of the 2021-22 free agent class.  Semien and Ray will also surely reject the qualifying offer (a one-year, $18.4MM deal) and look to land pricey longer-term contracts on the open market.  Toronto has interest in re-signing both players, but if Semien and/or Ray sign elsewhere after turning down the QO, the Jays will now receive compensatory draft picks.

Matz was an interesting borderline QO case, and the Blue Jays front office was reportedly weighing the idea of extending the offer to the left-hander.  Unlike the other two Toronto free agents, Matz might have been a candidate to accept, even though he has posted very solid numbers in three of his last four seasons (excepting an injury-plagued down year in 2020).  Matz doesn’t quite have the established track record to ensure that he would be a lock for a big multi-year contract on the open market, and thus might have preferred to take that one-year, $18.4MM guarantee now and then test free agency again next year.

However, it seems the Blue Jays might have felt $18.4MM was too much to spend for one season of Matz, even if the Jays are expected to spend more in payroll next year.  This doesn’t mean a reunion between Matz and the Jays isn’t possible, except Toronto will now have to compete with other suitors to lock down Matz’s services.  With free agency officially opening on Monday, Matz is surely interested in hearing from those other suitors, so it isn’t surprising that he rejected the Jays’ last-minute contract offer.

Blue Jays Have Considered Issuing Qualifying Offer To Steven Matz

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The Blue Jays will certainly be issuing qualifying offers to Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray in the coming weeks, but there is potential for a third name on the list: Steven Matz. “Internally, the Blue Jays have debated whether to extend Matz a qualifying offer,” reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.

The idea of extending an $18.4MM qualifying offer to Matz might come as a surprise to many baseball fans who weren’t paying close attention to the Blue Jays this year, and especially to Mets fans who watched him the year before. But the two campaigns could scarcely have been more different for the southpaw. In the shortened 2020 season, Matz missed a few weeks due to injury and ultimately threw 30 2/3 innings for the Mets with an awful ERA of 9.68. But after an offseason trade to the Blue Jays, Matz logged 150 2/3 innings for Toronto with an ERA of 3.82, accruing 2.8 fWAR in 2021, a personal best for him.

It now appears that 2020 is the outlier for Matz, as his 2021 numbers look very similar to those he talled in 2016, 2018 and 2019. In 2017, injuries limited him to 66 2/3 mediocre innings, but in four of the last six years, Matz has thrown between 132 and 161 frames with an ERA between 3.40 and 4.21, strikeout rate between 22% and 24% and walk rate between 5.7% and 9%. When healthy, he’s been a remarkably consistent mid-rotation arm. Considering his age (31 in May) and strong platform year, it’s possible this could be his best chance to land a big payday in free agency.

However, it seems like the chances Matz would accept a qualifying offer are high, considering that this would more than triple his annual pay. The lefty played 2021 on a salary of $5.25MM in his third and final arbitration season. A raise of that magnitude might be difficult to turn down, especially considering that he’d be attaching himself to draft pick forfeiture, thus putting a dent in his earning power. If he accepted, he would also return to the free agent market one year later, after the cloud of mystery around the next Collective Bargaining Agreement will have lifted. The current CBA expires December 1st, which creates a great deal of uncertainty as to how the offseason will play out. It would be entirely reasonable for a player to prefer to have their signature on a contract going into that vast unknown, as opposed to being untethered. The Blue Jays would likely have to give heavy consideration to how it would affect their offseason if the offer was both extended and accepted.

It was recently reported that the club expects payroll to go up next season, though it’s unclear exactly what kind of increase is possible. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource currently estimates next year’s payroll at just under $115MM, which is about $20MM shy of 2021’s opening day number, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Adding $18.4MM for Matz would immediately make up the majority of that difference, meaning that the front office would be left with whatever payroll increase they have been granted by ownership, while still looking to re-sign or replace Ray and Semien, as well as upgrading a bullpen that was the team’s achilles heel at times in 2021. That would seem to suggest that the chances of the team deciding to eventually extend the offer to Matz are low, but the fact that they are even debating it perhaps suggests that the payroll increase could be significant.

The club’s 2022 rotation looks a bit frontloaded, now that Matz and Ray are set to depart. Jose Berrios, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Alek Manoah make for a strong front three, with Ross Stripling, Nate Pearson, Thomas Hatch and Anthony Kay on hand as potential options for the backend. There’s certainly room for the Blue Jays to add to that group before spring training rolls around, and they won’t be lacking for options. This year’s class of free agent starters includes such varied names as Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodon, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Eduardo Rodriguez and many more.

Blue Jays Reinstate Steven Matz From COVID-IL, Designate Jeremy Beasley

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As expected, the Blue Jays reinstated left-hander Steven Matz from the COVID-related injured list today.  Matz is scheduled to start tonight’s game against the Mariners.  The Jays also officially added newly-acquired right-hander Adam Cimber to the active roster, with righties Joel Payamps and Anthony Castro optioned to Triple-A.  To create room on the 40-man roster, right-hander Jeremy Beasley was designated for assignment.

Matz tested positive for the coronavirus on June 15, and had to wait out a mandatory 10-day isolation period even though he was an asymptomatic COVID case.  It was an unwelcome interruption to a season that has seen Matz go through a few swings of inconsistency, though he has been generally solid in posting a 4.26 ERA/3.78 SIERA over 69 2/3 innings for the Blue Jays.  Matz’s seven percent walk rate and 24.8% strikeout rate are both better than average, as are his hard-contact numbers, as per Statcast.

Beasley was acquired from the Diamondbacks for cash considerations in April, and the righty posted a 7.71 ERA over 9 1/3 innings out of Toronto’s bullpen.  That brief stint saw Beasley allow nine walks and three home runs.  A 30th-round pick for the Angels in the 2017 draft, Beasley made his MLB debut in cup-of-coffee fashion with Arizona last season, tossing one-third of an inning in a single appearance.

Latest On Steven Matz

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JUNE 24: Matz has cleared protocols and rejoined the team, Sportsnet.ca’s Arden Zwelling tweets.  Matz threw a 60-pitch live BP session today, and he is slated to return to the rotation during the Jays’ series with the Mariners next week (June 29-July 1).

JUNE 15: The Blue Jays announced yesterday that left-hander Steven Matz has tested positive for COVID-19 (via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet). Fortunately, he is asymptomatic, although he’ll still need to isolate for ten days from the date of the test. The team conducted follow-up testing in the wake of Matz’s result but no other players have turned up positive.

Matz was placed on the COVID-19 IL over the weekend when his first test showed an inconclusive result. Acquired from the Mets over the winter, the 30-year-old has gotten off to a decent start with his new team. Matz has tossed 69 2/3 innings of 4.26 ERA/3.77 SIERA ball, a bounce back effort after a disastrous 2020 campaign. It’s not clear who will replace Matz in the rotation while he’s out, although each of Nate Pearson, T.J. Zeuch and Anthony Kay have been starting games at Triple-A Buffalo.

In other Jays news, Scott Mitchell of TSN reports that reliever Julian Merryweather won’t be reinstated from the injured list until late June at the earliest. The fireballing 29-year-old went on the IL with a left oblique strain April 14, so he’s eligible for activation whenever he returns to health. Merryweather was off to a fantastic start to the season, striking out seven of the fourteen batters he faced while holding opponents hitless through 4 1/3 innings.

COVID Notes: 6/13/21

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The latest on coronavirus situations around the league:

Latest Updates

  • Before this afternoon’s game against the Red Sox, the Blue Jays placed left-hander Steven Matz on the COVID-19 injured list, relays Scott Mitchell of TSN (Twitter link). Matz’s most recent test turned up an inconclusive result, leading to today’s IL placement, but the 30-year-old is not feeling any symptoms of the virus. He’ll undergo further testing. Reliever Jeremy Beasley has been recalled from Triple-A Buffalo to take his active roster spot for now.

Earlier Notes

  • The Marlins are activating left-hander Trevor Rogers from the COVID-19 injured list, notes Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (Twitter link). Rogers went on the IL yesterday but was always expected back in short order. Preston Guilmet, who was selected to the roster in his place, has been removed from the 40-man roster. Because Guilmet was selected to replace a player going on the COVID IL, he needn’t be exposed to waivers. He’ll be sent back to Triple-A Jacksonville without having appeared in an MLB game.

Blue Jays Acquire Steven Matz

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9:15pm: The teams have announced the deal.

8:35pm: The Blue Jays and Mets are closing in on a swap that would send lefty Steven Matz to Toronto, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). Robert Murray of Fansided tweeted that a trade between the clubs was coming; Michael Mayer of Metsmerized had tweeted that a Matz move was in the works.

Three right-handed pitchers will head back to New York in the arrangement: Josh Winckowski, Sean Reid-Foley, and Yennsy Diaz. (Via Murray, on Twitter, and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca, also via Twitter.)

Matz, 29, is due $5.2MM after agreeing to avoid arbitration. He will qualify for free agency after the 2021 campaign. The Mets obviously determined they could better allocate that salary for other needs. Whether it’ll be part of a big payout to lure Trevor Bauer remains to be seen; there’s still no reason to believe anything is imminent on that front.

While he has at times featured as a high-quality big-league starter, Matz has had his share of difficulties of late. The Long Island native wraps up a six-year run with the Mets having thrown 579 2/3 innings of 4.35 ERA ball.

While Matz made thirty starts apiece in 2018 and 2019, arm issues were a recurring problem. He spent time on the injured list in 2020 and ended the campaign with a brutal 9.68 ERA in just 30 2/3 frames of action.

That unfortunate short-season effort came with a few bright spots. Though Matz surrendered a ton of hard contact, he also managed a career-best 25.4% strikeout percentage while delivering his sinker at an average of 94.5 mph.

Clearly, the Jays believe Matz still possesses the necessary physical tools to deliver a good number of useful innings. He’ll likely have a chance to battle for a rotation spot in camp, though the team could also plan to use him in a swingman or even pure relief capacity.

The Mets will get some reward for deciding to tender Matz a contract. None of the three arms acquired come with high-grade prospect billing, but each will have a chance to contribute in the near term.

Both Reid-Foley and Diaz have debuted in the majors, meaning they also occupy 40-man roster spots (albeit with options remaining). The former threw 71 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball over three seasons with the Jays, carrying a suboptimal 76:48 cumulative K/BB ratio. Diaz has just one appearance to his name, but turned in a solid showing at the Double-A level in 2019.

As for Winckowski, he’s still due for further seasoning. The 22-year-old reached the High-A level in 2019. Over 127 1/3 total frames that year, he turned in a sturdy 2.69 ERA. Winckowski will (again) be eligible for the Rule 5 draft after the 2021 campaign.

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