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2006 Draft Throwdown

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There is little that is more dismaying than looking back at old draft lists, with the benefit of hindsight, and seeing which players your favorite team missed out on while settling for players who either failed to make much of an impact, or who never even reached the major leagues. Think Reggie Jackson and Steve Chilcott, Robin Yount and David Clyde, Dwight Gooden and Bryan Oelkers. Often, this is driven less by player talent, and more by positional need.

But even more fascinating is to look at some recent draft picks and some of their immediate counterparts, to see how teams fared picking players, one over another, who played the same position. In other words, straight-up scouting choices led to these decisions. Let's take a look at how those worked out in 2006.

  • LHP Andrew Miller (Tigers) vs. Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers): This one is more complicated than it might seem at first. Clearly, Miller, drafted sixth overall, has not been nearly as effective as Kershaw, drafted seventh overall. Miller has a 5.50 ERA in 261 2/3 major league innings, and is currently having trouble throwing strikes in the minor leagues, with an astonishing 30 walks in 28 innings. Kershaw has a 3.28 ERA in 342 major league innings, and shows signs of being a good deal better than that moving forward. But Miller isn't with the Tigers; Detroit dealt him in the move that brought Miguel Cabrera to Detroit. Still, advantage has to go to Kershaw on this one, and the Dodgers as well.
  • RHP Tim Lincecum (Giants) vs. Max Scherzer (Diamondbacks): Is this one about to turn? Obviously, as of this date, Lincecum, drafted tenth, has worked out as well as one could hope any draft pick could, while Scherzer, drafted eleventh, is still a work-in-progress who has already been traded once. But Lincecum has had uncharacteristic struggles with his control lately, even though his season ERA (3.14) and strikeout rate (10.4/9 innings) are not far off of his career marks. And Scherzer is coming off of a 14-strikeout performance, though four walks meant that he did so in just 5 2/3 innings. For now, though, a big edge to Lincecum, the two-time Cy Young Award winner.
  • OF Tyler Colvin (Cubs) vs. Travis Snider (Blue Jays): Based on 2010 season line alone, this battle of the lefty-hitting outfielders would have to go to Colvin, drafted thirteenth, over Snider, drafted fourteenth. After all, Colvin has an OPS of .991 in 83 plate appearances this season, while Snider's stands at .806. But overall, it seems clear that the Blue Jays did better here. Snider came out of high school, while Colvin was a collegiate player. Yet Snider posted significantly better offensive numbers than Colvin as each player climbed their respective system ladders- a .916 to .785 edge in minor league OPS. Snider was holding down a regular job at age 22 before he hit the DL, while Colvin is struggling for a regular spot as his 25th birthday approaches. This one is debatable, but the smart money gives Toronto and Snider the edge.

Largest Contracts By Service Time

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When Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo signed his five year, $30.1MM extension earlier today, it marked the largest contract ever signed by a pitcher with less than three years of service time.

Let's look at the richest contracts by service time, in terms of guaranteed money…

Less Than One Year
Position Player: Ryan Braun. Eight years, $45MM
Pitcher: C.C. Sabathia. Four years, $9.5MM.

One To Two Years
Position Player: Chris Young. Five years, $28MM.
Pitcher: Fausto Carmona. Four years, $15MM.

Two To Three Years
Position Player: Hanley Ramirez. Six years, $70MM.
Pitcher: Yovani Gallardo.  Five years, $30.1MM.

Three To Four Years
Position Player: Albert Pujols. Seven years, $100MM. 
Pitcher: Scott Kazmir. Three years, $28.5MM.

Four To Five Years
Position Player: Miguel Cabrera. Eight years, $152.3MM.
Pitcher: Justin Verlander. Five years, $80MM.

Five To Six Years
Position Player: Derek Jeter. Ten years, $189MM.
Pitcher: Jake Peavy. Three years, $52MM. 

Six-plus Years
Position Player: Alex Rodriguez. Ten years, $275MM.
Pitcher: C.C. Sabathia. Seven years, $171MM.

Some thoughts…

  • The most regrettable deals were signed very early in the player's career, Young and Carmona. Might be a lesson in using up those pre-arbitration years before taking the plunge.
  • The largest contract signed by a position player with less than one year of service time after Braun's deal is Evan Longoria's, which will pay him just $17.5MM over six years. Is Braun overpaid, or is Longoria underpaid? I think the answer is clear.
  • Sabathia's four year, $9.5MM deal nearly tripled Roy Halladay's three year, $3.7MM deal with Toronto, which was the previous record for a pitcher with less an a year of service time.
  • One only of the above contracts has expired.

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

Odds & Ends: Gaudin, Mets, Cain, Parra

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Links for Sunday evening..

Indians Notes: Lincecum, Mateo, Hernandez

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Tim Lincecum nearly signed with the Indians in 2005?  Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer has the story…

  • The Indians drafted Lincecum in the 42nd round of the '05 draft.  Told it'd take $1MM to sign him, the Tribe offered $700K.  MLB draft exec Frank Coonelly wasn't pleased at the over-slot offer, but it still wasn't enough to convince Lincecum to sign.  A year later he went tenth overall to the Giants.  You can play "what might have been" with any team, but Lincecum would've changed the course of Indians history.
  •  The Indians are expected to work out Dominican outfielder Wagner Mateo, writes Hoynes.  Mateo has already tried out for the Diamondbacks.
  • Anderson Hernandez joins the mix for the Indians' utility job after yesterday's waiver claim.  Assistant GM Chris Antonetti noted that manager Manny Acta is familiar with Hernandez from managing him in Washington.

Odds & Ends: Fielder, Wood, Stairs, Duncan

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A wrap-up of items from Wednesday…

  • We've heard that the Brewers have begun to explore the possibility of extending Prince Fielder's contract, but ESPN's Keith Law thinks "it makes no sense for the Brewers to keep Fielder" given that the team doesn't look like a contender this season or next.  Law also describes Fielder as, "the type of player who doesn't age well."
  • Kerry Wood isn't bothered by trade rumors linking him to Minnesota to fill the Joe Nathan void, reports Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com.  Castrovince adds that it's "hard to imagine" the Twins acquiring Wood given the veteran closer's $10.5MM salary in 2010 (plus an $11MM option for 2011 that vests if Wood finishes 55 games this year).
  • Speaking of Wood, Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain Dealer argues that the Tribe shouldn't deal Wood to a division rival until the Indians know what kind of a team they have this season.  If they contend, then they could keep Wood for a pennant race.  If they don't contend, Wood will still have trade value at midseason.
  • Tyler Kepner of the New York Times talks to Matt Stairs, who is enjoying his role in the Padres camp as "the grandfather of the team."  Stairs said he won't go to the minors if he doesn't make San Diego's opening day roster, and he might just return to his job as a hitting coach for the University of Maine's baseball team.
  • MLB.com's Matthew Leach reports that Chris Duncan doesn't blame the Cardinals for dealing him to Boston last summer.
  • Anthony Ranaudo, thought by some to be the top pitcher available in June's Amateur Draft, may fall down the draft board after battling elbow problems, reports ESPN.com's Jason A. Churchill.
  • Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told MLB.com's Bill Ladson that despite Stephen Strasburg's strong outing on Tuesday, "it's not going to change my plans" about how Strasburg will be brought along.  Strasburg may well start the season in the minors, but ESPN's Buster Olney thinks it could be a brief stay: "You get the feeling that his time in the minors may be as short as it was for Tim Lincecum."  Lincecum, for the record, has made only 13 lifetime appearances in the minors and made just four minor league starts in 2007 before being called up to San Francisco.

No Multi-Year Talks For Sandoval

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The Giants are not currently looking to give Pablo Sandoval a multi-year contract, writes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.  Team official Bobby Evans told Schulman that the club is negotiating a one-year deal with the 23-year-old, as is their custom for players with less than two years of major league service time.  Sandoval has just over one year of service time to his credit.

Finding precedent for a player like Sandoval could prove to be difficult.  This past season Kung Fu Panda hit .330/.387/.556 with 25 HRs in 633 plate appearances.  Last spring, the Giants and Tim Lincecum agreed to a $650K deal, though Tiny Tim had a bit more service time under his belt than Sandoval. 

Schulman suggests Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard as comparisons, as they also had brilliant campaigns in their first full seasons.  Fielder was renewed for $415K while Howard was given $900K, a record salary for a one-plus player.

California Notes: Headley, Angels, Weaver

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Someone alert Dr. Dre and the Beach Boys, since here's a rundown of news from the Golden State…

  • The Padres are so high on Chase Headley that MLB.com's Corey Brock says the team once turned down a deal with Pittsburgh that would've brought Nate McLouth and Xavier Nady to San Diego.
  • MLB.com's Lyle Spencer reports that the Angels will pay their five regular infielders a total of $8.05MM in 2010 — or, almost $1MM less than Chone Figgins by himself will make in Seattle.
  • Tony Jackson of ESPN Los Angeles talks to Jeff Weaver, whose minor league contract with the Dodgers allows him to opt out and become a free agent if he doesn't make the club out of spring training.  Weaver said the escape clause allows him to stay out of the minors: "I am here to make this team. If it doesn't work out…then I don't really want to do the Triple-A thing again."
  • As part of a reader mailbag, Jackson said it's unlikely that Jamie McCourt's claim of half-ownership of the Dodgers will hold up in court.  But if it does, then Jackson predicts Frank McCourt "probably will be forced to sell, whether it's to Jamie and the group she allegedly has lined up to buy the club or to someone else."  One would think that if this divorce halves McCourt's fortune as many predict it will, he may have to sell the team regardless of the result of his ex-wife's claim.
  • Scout X (who may or may not be ESPN's Gene Wojciechowski) previews the 2010 season.  One of the more interesting tidbits in the piece is that Scout X would take Matt Cain over Tim Lincecum if he had to choose between the two Giants aces because "Cain pitches with such ease." 

Heyman On Yankees, Park, Lincecum

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Jon Heyman of SI.com expects the Yankees to reach resolution with Joe Girardi, Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter without much fanfare after the season. Heyman imagines a three or four year deal for Jeter at $20-25MM per season. Here are the rest of his rumors:

  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman says he's confident in Curtis Granderson's defense. "We still have him as a plus defender," Cashman said.
  • The Yankees could add Chan Ho Park, who the Cubs and Rays are eyeing, too. 
  • If the Rays add Park, they would likely be done and Russell Branyan could be out of luck. A Rays person tells Heyman the club has enough money for one signing only.
  • The Giants never offered Tim Lincecum anything more than a three-year deal. Heyman hears that the club offered Lincecum $36MM, not $37MM, as we heard earlier. 

Odds & Ends: Lincecum, Cashman, Orioles, Wang

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Links for Tuesday…

  • Tim Lincecum passed his physical according to Henry Schulman of The San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). Presumably his two-year, $23MM deal is official now.
  • Yankees' GM Brian Cashman sat down for an interview with NoMaas.org. He discussed what went into some of their decision making this offseason, among other things.
  • Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun projected the Orioles' Opening Day roster. 
  • Chien-Ming Wang has already passed his physical with the Nationals, reports Chico Harlan of The Washington Post. Given the righty's recent shoulder surgery, it was far from a formality.  
  • Joe Torre tells Mike Francesa of WFAN that the Dodgers are on the lookout for a fifth starter (audio here). Torre says the Dodgers could find that starter within their organization. He also says he and the Doders are talking about adding a year onto his contract, which expires after this season.
  • Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos told Batter's Box that the Blue Jays will draft the best players available this June. Anthopoulos also said the Jays will be open to dealing from their pitching depth.
  • MLB.com's Doug Miller shows that baseball's executives are getting younger as owners take a business-first approach to winning.
  • Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune says he'd be willing to guarantee Joe Mauer eight or ten years if that's what it takes to keep the catcher in Minnesota, despite the fact that Mauer would almost certainly be playing another position by the end of a contract that long. 
  • Padres GM Jed Hoyer tells MLB.com's Corey Brock that he's pleased with his first offseason as a GM and the process that the Padres used this winter.
  • Giants officials believe "the day is coming when legions of talented hitters will follow" Pablo Sandoval's path to the majors, according to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News.
  • ESPN.com's Buster Olney says Felipe Lopez would be a "great, great fit" for the Mets. 

Odds & Ends: Blue Jays, Gomes, Lincecum

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Links for Saturday…

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