Tim Lincecum

A few notes regarding the 2010 World Series champs …

• Tim Lincecum's agent, Rick Thurman of Beverly Hills Sports Council, said he's not seeking more than a one- or two-year deal for the two-time NL Cy Young Award winner, tweets Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News, although Thurman added that "there are never any absolutes." 
• Lincecum is eligible for two more rounds of arbitration — and could see an historic raise if it gets that far — before free agency after 2013. Suffice it to say Lincecum, still only 27, has some bargaining leverage, so it could take something as substantial as an eight-year deal to lock him up, as suggested by Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com.
• VP of baseball operations Bobby Evans said the Giants could add an outfield bat, but he doesn't envision drastic changes, tweets Morosi. Evans also mentioned Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez are on track to be healthy for Spring Training as they recover from their respective season-ending injuries in 2011.
• The owners today approved Larry Baer's appointment as Giants CEO, according to Baggarly. Baer replaces for Bill Neukom, who was asked to step down in September. Baggarly expects business as usual under Baer, who has been a long-tenured executive with the organization.

They call Tim Lincecum the Freak for his unusual delivery, but the nickname may also apply when it comes to contract talks. While most players are eager to sign their first long-term deal, the Giants’ two-time Cy Young winner told Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle that he feels most comfortable on one or two-year contracts.

"It's just easier for me mentally not to have to put that kind of pressure on yourself," he said. "Not that you don't want to succeed, but when you're signed to a long-term deal, it's like saying, 'I'm going to live up to every expectation.' That's why I like going year to year, so I can improve on it and not sit on what I've done."

Lincecum still has two years of arbitration eligibility after this season and he says he’d be open to a two-year deal similar to the one that bought out his first two seasons of arbitration eligibility. He says he likes the two-year, $23MM contract he signed before the 2010 season, since it allowed him to move gradually through the arbitration process. But if the Giants make an aggressive long-term offer, the Beverly Hills Sports Council client will listen.

"It all depends on how they come after me," he told Schulman. "If it's aggressive, obviously I want to take that into consideration and talk about it with my agent and see what he thinks is good. I haven't dismissed anything."

Lincecum says he isn’t sure how he’ll feel in three or five years and added that he isn’t worried about the Giants’ offense, which currently ranks last in the National League in runs scored.

When MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes previewed Lincecum’s arbitration case in May, the agents he surveyed suggested a 2012 salary in the $19-22MM range would be fair assuming a “normal season.” The 27-year-old right-hander has a 2.59 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 212 innings and though he won’t win the Cy Young Award he has set himself up for $20MM-plus in 2012 and even more in 2013. In other words, Lincecum gets as much guaranteed money going year to year as many pitchers obtain on multiyear deals in free agency.

The Giants avoided a historic arbitration case with ace Tim Lincecum last year, agreeing to a two-year, $23MM deal.  That contract just delayed the inevitable, as Lincecum will still be arbitration eligible after the 2011 season and the Beverly Hills Sports Council client is in line for an unprecedented payday.

No Comparables

When you talk to agents about Lincecum's upcoming arbitration case, you hear phrases like "uncharted waters" and "lands unknown."  There is no arbitration comparable; the 26-year-old already has two Cy Young awards.  Said one agent, "They will use all of the free agent numbers here, including C.C. Sabathia (even if he opts out), Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and everyone else with an impressive, cool silver and black plaque hanging in their basement.  This negotiation will transcend arbitration and will be a mini free agency discussion."

The Raise Argument

All the agents I spoke to pegged Lincecum's 2012 salary in the $19-22MM range assuming he has a "normal" year.  That's normal by Lincecum standards – something like last year's 3.43 ERA.  That kind of season easily lends itself to an argument that Lincecum deserves much better than the $5.9MM raise Carlos Zambrano received in 2007, based on both platform year and career bulk.  Lincecum is coming from a $14MM salary in 2011, so his agent Rick Thurman could demand a $7MM+ raise.

Assuming cases for pitchers such as Jered Weaver, John Danks, and Matt Garza are settled first, they could have a bearing on Lincecum.  Most agents put Weaver in the $14-15MM range, but if he finds his way to $16-17MM, Lincecum's agent could argue for a bigger raise.

Another Cy Young?

Only eight pitchers have won three or more Cy Young awards, and none of them accomplished the feat by their fifth season.  If Lincecum wins the award this year, he has a good case to be the highest-paid pitcher of all time.  That means a salary beyond Lee's $24MM, perhaps well beyond.  If Lee is worthy of five years at $24MM per, how much extra would it be worth to reduce the risk to a one-year deal?  If Lincecum were a free agent after '11, coming off a Cy Young and limiting himself to a one-year deal, something like $28MM would be within reach.  Multiple agents believe another Cy Young would propel Lincecum to $25MM or more for 2012.

Thinking About 2013

Lincecum is a Super Two player, meaning he's eligible for arbitration four times.  If he lands a $25MM salary for 2012, the stakes would get even higher for '13.  At that point even a .500 year in '12 would almost have to result in a $5MM raise, putting Lincecum at $30MM and putting the Giants in a tough spot. 

Long-Term Possibilities

Lincecum might have been earning close to $20MM this year had the Giants not signed him to a two-year deal in February of 2010.  The team figures to be motivated to attempt another multiyear deal.  Lincecum, having already earned more than most pitchers who sign extensions during their arbitration years, might not be looking for the maximum number of years on an extension now.  How about four years $90MM – $18MM in '12, $22MM in '13, and $25MM in '14 and '15?  That'd allow Lincecum to reach free agency at age 31 and go for his first $100MM deal.

If he did try to maximize the term on a new contract, Lincecum could look for eight years.  No matter how you slice it, an eight-year deal would exceed Sabathia's $161MM and be the largest contract ever for a pitcher.

Conclusion

The 2011-12 offseason is packed with fascinating storylines, led by possible free agency for Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, and Sabathia.  But we may still have plenty to talk about in January and February, with all eyes on Lincecum's contract situation.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Tim Lincecum's first four Major League seasons have included two NL Cy Young Awards, three consecutive NL strikeout titles and a World Series ring.  Not bad for a "freak" that fell to the 10th pick of the 2006 draft due to concerns about his throwing motion.

The Giants have already struck gold with the 26-year-old and now the only question seems to be the length of Lincecum's next deal with the team.  The right-hander signed a two-year, $23MM contract before the 2010 season that covered his first two arbitration years, but as a Super Two player, Lincecum will have two more arb years remaining before he finally reaches free agency after the 2013 season.

By the end of 2011, Lincecum will have a bit more than four years of Major League service time to his name.  Lincecum will no doubt be looking for an extension that at least matches the largest deal given to a pitcher between four and five years of service time — Justin Verlander's five-year, $80MM deal with the Tigers, signed before the 2010 season.  Let's compare the key stats of the two pitchers over their first three-plus years in the majors:

Verlander: 4.11 ERA, 97 starts, 600 IP, 477 Ks, 1.33 WHIP, 2.65 K/BB, 8.7 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 7.2 K/9

Lincecum: 3.04 ERA, 122 starts, 811 IP, 907 Ks, 1.18 WHIP, 3.1 K/BB, 7.4 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 10.1 K/9

Lincecum clearly has the stronger resume of the two men at similar points in their careers, though of course Verlander delivered a superb 2009 season before signing his extension.  If Lincecum delivers just his average season in 2011 (3.04 ERA, 30 starts, 203 IP, 227 Ks, and the same decimal stats as listed earlier), his four-year numbers and his postseason heroics will net him a larger deal.  Five years and $85MM seems like the minimum for any extension.

We heard last week from Brian Sabean that he didn't expect any long-term negotiations with Lincecum to take place during the season.  There's no pressure on the Giants to get something done quickly, of course, plus it may behoove the club to see how Lincecum performs in 2011.  Lincecum's ERA jumped to 3.43 last season and his peripherals also weren't as strong as in his two Cy Young years.  Still, it was far from a down season, as Lincecum was terrific down the stretch (a 1.94 ERA in six September starts) and through the playoffs as the Giants won the World Series.

San Francisco will have a lot of decisions to make about their pitching staff over the next few seasons.  Matt Cain's deal is up after 2012, Jonathan Sanchez has one year of arbitration left, and the team might look to get cost certainty through Madison Bumgarner's arb years, though Bumgarner (another Super Two) isn't eligible for arbitration until after 2012.  Barring an injury or a big setback in 2011, Lincecum's track record and his position as the face of the franchise will ensure that his contract is dealt with first.