Red Sox Interested In Sugano, Odorizzi, Hill
After getting meager results from their rotation in 2020, the Red Sox continue to explore a wide range of options on the free agent market. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that the Sox have interest in Jake Odorizzi and former Boston hurler Rich Hill, while Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal writes that Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano (who was posted earlier this week) is also on the list of targets.
Between this trio and Boston’s previously-known interest in Corey Kluber, it’s clear the Red Sox are considering pretty much any and all options, ranging from injury reclamation projects like Kluber, familiar faces like Hill, x-factors like Sugano, or Odorizzi, who is arguably the best starter remaining on the market aside from Trevor Bauer and possibly Masahiro Tanaka.
MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents ranked Tanaka 10th and Odorizzi 11th, with Odorizzi’s track record serving as a bigger argument for a multi-year contract than his injury-marred 2020 season. The righty was limited to only 13 2/3 innings last year, though none of Odorizzi’s injuries were particularly serious or cause for any long-term doubts about his ability to contribute in 2021 and beyond.
There has been enough interest in Odorizzi that he would likely be the most expensive option possible for the Red Sox, though it’s possible Sugano could cost more in pure dollars spending on the size of the posting fee his new team will have to pay the Yomiuri Giants. The 31-year-old Sugano is moving to MLB after eight outstanding seasons with the Tokyo-based Giants that saw Sugano post a 2.32 ERA, 4.59 K/BB rate, and 8.0 K/9 over 1362 innings. The Padres and Blue Jays are two of the clubs who have been linked to Sugano, though it’s probably safe to assume several more teams will be in touch before his posting period ends on January 7.
Speier reports that there is mutual interest between Hill and the Sox, which isn’t surprising given that Hill was born in Boston and still lives in the area. It would be Hill’s third stint with his hometown club, after pitching three seasons (but only 31 2/3 innings thanks to Tommy John surgery and other injuries) with the Red Sox from 2010-12, and then a return trip in 2015. It was during the 2015 season that Hill famously enjoyed a career reawakening, posting a 1.55 ERA over four starts with Boston that served as a springboard for five largely successful (if still injury-shortened) seasons with the Athletics, Dodgers, and Twins.
Hill would be the least expensive of the trio, as he would likely only require a one-year deal as he enters his age-41 season. For a Red Sox rotation that has a lot of durability questions, however, signing someone with “few guarantees about the frequency with which he could contribute” (as Speier puts it) might not be the best course of action. Sugano naturally carries some risk given that it isn’t known how well he’ll adjust to Major League batters, and Odorizzi can’t be seen as a sure thing given his lack of results in 2020.
Yomiuri Giants Formally Post Tomoyuki Sugano For MLB Teams
The Yomiuri Giants of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have formally posted right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano for Major League teams. His 30-day posting period will begin tomorrow morning at 8am and run through Jan. 7 at 5pm ET, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi.
Sugano, 31, is one of the most prominent pitchers in Japan. A two-time winner of the Sawamura Award — Japan’s Cy Young equivalent — he’s viewed as one of the top talents on the market behind Trevor Bauer, who is still in a class of his own among free-agent hurlers.
After a down season (by his lofty standards) in which he posted a 3.89 ERA in 2019, Sugano rebounded in 2020 with 137 1/3 innings of 1.97 ERA ball, averaging 8.6 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 along the way. Overall, dating back to the 2015 season, Sugano has thrown more than 1000 innings with a 2.19 ERA while averaging better than eight strikeouts and fewer than two walks per nine frames.
Some fans may remember Sugano from a strong showing in the 2017 World Baseball Classic. The right-hander shined in a strong outing against Team USA, allowing just an unearned run with six strikeouts and one walk over six innings and eliciting high praise from skipper Jim Leyland.
“I can’t tell you, for me, tonight, how impressed I was with their pitcher,” Leyland said at the time (link via MLB.com’s Joe Trezza). “I mean, I thought he was really good. Located on the ball on the outside corners, fastball. Threw 3-0 sliders. That’s pretty impressive.” Leyland plainly called Sugano a “big league pitcher” after that game. (Those interested can check out all 81 of Sugano’s pitches from that game in this YouTube clip.)
Sugano’s fastball averages 92-93 mph and, like his curveball, boasts a strong spin rate. Sports Info Solution’s Will Hoefer took a look at him last October, calling him at least a No. 4 starter in the big leagues, and that was after an injury-hindered campaign as opposed to the strong 2020 showing Sugano just authored. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel also labels him a likely fourth starter, noting that he’d have a chance at three years with an annual value in excess of $10MM in a normal offseason but projecting a slightly more measured two-year, $24MM deal due to the sport’s revenue losses. Sugano would’ve been included on MLBTR’s own list of the game’s top 50 free agents had it been known for certain that he’d be posted at the time of publishing.
Major League teams will have the next 30 days to negotiate with Sugano, who is exempt from international bonus pools and free to sign a contract of any length and for any amount. In addition to the money paid to Sugano on his contract, the team that signs him will also owe a release fee to the Yomiuri Giants. That fee is equal to 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5 percent of the contract’s next $25MM in value, plus an additional 15 percent of any money guaranteed thereafter.
NL West Notes: Padres, Cubs, Porter, D’Backs, Oberg
With Mike Clevinger now sidelined for the 2021 season due to Tommy John surgery, the Padres‘ need for starting pitching is more pronounced, and the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee writes that the club is considering a range of rotation possibilities. This includes the very top of the free agent market, as “the Padres have let the agent for Trevor Bauer know they’d like to be kept apprised as his market evolves.” San Diego has also “spit-balled” the concept of trying to acquire Blake Snell from the Rays, as Tampa Bay is reportedly open to dealing the former AL Cy Young Award winner.
Other potential targets could include Japanese righty Tomoyuki Sugano (who will be posted this offseason) and possibly the Rangers’ Lance Lynn, who the Padres looked into acquiring at the trade deadline. Acee isn’t certain, however, whether the Padres have re-engaged with the Rangers about Lynn any more recently. While there is a certain amount of basic front office due diligence attached to the Padres’ interest in any of these pitchers, the fact that San Diego is at least open to major moves like a big expenditure on Bauer or trading a significant prospect package to land Snell is certainly indicative that the Padres are willing to think big as they look to contend in 2021.
More from the NL West…
- Diamondbacks assistant GM Jared Porter “is the heavy favorite” to become the Cubs‘ next general manager, according to The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma (subscription required). Newly-minted Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has stated that he wants to make an external hire for the GM job in order to bring a fresh viewpoint into the Cubs’ front office, though Porter is still a known quantity, having previously worked with Hoyer in both Chicago and Boston. Other speculative general manager possibilities for the Cubs include another Diamondbacks AGM in Amiel Sawdaye, as well as former Marlins president of baseball ops Michael Hill.
- The Diamondbacks had a busy offseason last year, and general manager Mike Hazen “wouldn’t anticipate that type of a splash” this winter since “the majority of the work we did last offseason was for multiple years,” Hazen told The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (subscription required). Many of those roster moves didn’t pan out during a last-place season for the team, but while Hazen said the Snakes are examining how and why they performed as they did in 2020, the smaller sample size of the shorter season is a factor in evaluation: “One of the lasting questions that we all have was what was real about the 60 games.” In terms of potential offseason needs, Hazen cited relief pitching, a right-handed hitting outfielder, and possibly third base, though Hazen is confident of a bounce-back year from Eduardo Escobar.
- Scott Oberg has begun a throwing program, The Athletic’s Nick Groke reports (Twitter link), as the Rockies right-hander is making his way back from undergoing thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in September. The hope is that the TOS surgery will finally solve the blood clotting issues that have plagued Oberg throughout his career, as he has undergone multiple procedures in the past. Oberg didn’t pitch at all in 2020, leaving Colorado without an important piece of its bullpen. In 2018-19, Oberg posted a 2.35 ERA, 3.29 K/BB rate, and 9.0 K/9 over 114 2/3 innings.
Quick Hits: Sugano, Arihara, Padres, Varitek, Pirates
Right-handers Tomoyuki Sugano and Kohei Arihara “are on the Padres’ radar,” The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes (subscription required). The two Nippon Professional Baseball veterans will both be available on the posting market, and represent intriguing alternatives to more established Major Leaguer hurlers in free agency. As Lin notes, the Padres have worked to establish a scouting pipeline to the Asian leagues, with Pierce Johnson and Kazuhisa Makita representing San Diego’s most prominent NPB signings in recent years.
Sugano and Arihara are quite likely to each land multi-year deals but perhaps not overly long commitments, which could appeal to a Padres team Lin says is “mulling one-year deals as a way to reinforce a rotation.” The Padres will be without Mike Clevinger in 2021 due to Tommy John surgery, leaving a vacancy in the starting mix.
Some more from around baseball…
- Jason Varitek officially joined the Red Sox coaching staff earlier this month, working in the new position of game planning coordinator. This is Varitek’s first assignment as a full-time MLB coach, and the longtime former catcher tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that eventually managing a team is “the ultimate goal” down the road in his post-playing career. Varitek has worked as a special assistant within the Boston front office since 2012, a post that has allowed him to dabble in several different organizational facets such as scouting, player development, and (most recently) working with Red Sox catchers throughout the 2020 season. “There are no set parameters” to the game planning coordinator job, Varitek said: “I’ll work with the catchers and pitchers and be a liaison with the analytics people. Whatever comes my way, I’ll help out. It ends up being the same thing I have been doing, helping the players grow.”
- The Pirates are known to be considering all options on the trade front this winter, though The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel (subscription required) doesn’t think Josh Bell or Gregory Polanco will be dealt since the Bucs would likely be selling low on either player. “It’s more likely than not” that Joe Musgrove will be traded, though Biertempfel also thinks it’s possible Musgrove could be signed to a contract extension, with Pittsburgh either seeing him as a long-term piece or perhaps using the extension as a way of enhancing Musgrove’s trade value.
Tomoyuki Sugano Will Be Posted For MLB Clubs
NOV. 26: Kohei Arihara has been posted, according to MLB Insider Jon Morosi (via Twitter). As Morosi notes, the 28-year-old has a 3.65 ERA over 882 career innings.
NOV. 25: Yomiuri will post Sugano, according to Sanspo (via Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker, on Twitter).
NOV. 2: Yomiuri Giants right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano could be posted for Major League teams this winter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. It’s not yet certain that he’ll be made available, but the Giants are considering the move for one of the more accomplished pitchers in Japan given that he’ll be eligible for unrestricted international free agency next winter. Sherman adds that NPB’s Nippon Ham Fighters may post a pair of players themselves: fellow righty Kohei Arihara and outfielder Haruki Nishikawa.
Sugano, who recently turned 31, is the most prominent name of the bunch and the most relevant for MLB fans. He had a tough 2019 season, by his standards (3.89 ERA) but has otherwise posted an ERA of 2.14 or better each season since 2015. Overall, dating back to Opening Day 2015, he’s notched a highly efficient 2.20 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 over the course of 1015 1/3 innings out of the rotation. He’s a six-time All-Star in Japan and a two-time winner of NPB’s Sawamura Award — their league’s equivalent of MLB’s Cy Young Award.
MLB fans may remember Sugano from an impressive showing in the 2017 World Baseball Classic — one that prompted U.S. skipper Jim Leyland to offer high volumes of praise for the righty.
“I can’t tell you, for me, tonight, how impressed I was with their pitcher,” Leyland said at the time (link via MLB.com’s Joe Trezza). “I mean, I thought he was really good. Located on the ball on the outside corners, fastball. Threw 3-0 sliders. That’s pretty impressive.” Leyland plainly called Sugano a “big league pitcher” after that game. (Those interested can check out all 81 of Sugano’s pitches from that game in this YouTube clip.)
Team USA’s Andrew McCutchen also acknowledged that Sugano was impressive in that outing, during which he held a deep U.S. roster to one unearned run over six innings with six strikeouts and a walk. Sugano’s fastball averages 92-93 mph and, like his curveball, boasts a strong spin rate. Sports Info Solution’s Will Hoefer took a look at him last October, calling him at least a No. 4 starter in the big leagues, and that was after an injury-hindered campaign as opposed to the strong 2020 showing Sugano just authored.
The Giants have yet to make a formal declaration on Sugano’s status, although that’s not a surprise given that they’re still alive in NPB’s postseason format. Sherman notes that the typical window during which NPB clubs can post a player has been pushed back to Nov. 8-Dec. 12, which will buy the Giants a bit more time in making their ultimate decision. The NPB Climax Series is expected to run through late November.
Turning to the 28-year-old Arihara, he’s a former rotation-mate of Shohei Ohtani, so big league scouts have surely gotten ample looks at him over the years. Arihara spent much of the early portion of his career working to ERA marks in the mid-4.00s, but he’s seen improved results since 2019, with a 2.93 mark and a 265-to-68 K/BB ratio in 292 frames.
Hoefer also profiled him late last year, noting that Arihara’s fastball runs up to 95 mph but has a pretty wide variance in terms of its velocity. Hoefer pegged Arihara’s changeup as his lone plus offering but noted that his splitter and slider are potentially average offerings. Arihara won’t turn 29 until next August, so he’s younger not only than Sugano but than just about any MLB free-agent starter of note.
Nishikawa, 29 in April, hit .296/.419/.388 with just five homers, 15 doubles and three triples this year, although he also swiped 37 bags in 42 tries. He’s posted an OBP of .378 or better in each of the past four seasons while striking out in 16.5 percent of his plate appearances against a 14.3 percent walk rate. Nishikawa has three stolen base titles, three Gold Gloves in the outfield and a pair of All-Star nods in NPB. He made it known last offseason that he hoped the Fighters would post him for big league clubs this winter.
For those in need of a refresher or a crash course on the current posting system between Major League Baseball and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, it’s a fairly straightforward process. Unlike the old blind bidding system, players posted by an NPB or KBO club are free to negotiate with all 30 clubs. So long as they’re over 25 years of age and have six-plus years of MLB service — each of Sugano, Arihara and Nishikawa do — they’re able to sign Major League contracts of any length for any amount.
In addition to the money paid to the player, his new team in MLB must also pay a release fee to the former NPB/KBO club. That fee correlates directly with the size of the contract. MLB clubs pay a sum of 20 percent of a contract’s first $25MM to the former team. The fee also includes 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars spent thereafter.
The release fee is on top of the actual contract for the player. So, for example, a $50MM contract would cost a team a total of $59.375MM — $50MM to the player and $9.375MM to the former club. Option years and incentives/bonuses are also factored in if they are eventually unlocked (e.g. a $10MM club option tacked on top of the previous theoretical $50MM deal would require the MLB club to pay $1.5MM to the former team once it is picked up — 15 percent of the guarantee beyond $50MM).
Quick Hits: Kikuchi, Sugano, BoSox, JBJ, Rangers, D-backs
Japanese starting pitchers Yusei Kikuchi and Tomoyuki Sugano have been garnering attention from major league scouts, according to Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times. Several teams sent representatives to see the left-handed Kikuchi (Seibu Lions) and the right-handed Sugano (Yomiuri Giants) square off last Friday. The belief is that the 26-year-old Kikuchi will be the first of the pair to immigrate to the majors, perhaps as early as the upcoming offseason, per Coskrey. Notably, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reported in March that Kikuchi could end up with a contract in the $100MM vicinity if he does head to North America. Kikuchi would be posted, whereas Sugano may have to wait until he becomes an international free agent in 2021 because Yomiuri doesn’t post players, Coskrey explains. By then, he’ll be 32.
Here’s more from around the game:
- In the event the Red Sox upgrade their offense this summer, it will probably come at center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr.‘s expense, Chad Jennings of The Athletic writes (subscription required). For the most part, Boston’s offense is well positioned, Jennings observes, but Bradley hasn’t helped matters with a .184/.280/.301 line in 236 plate appearances. Barring a turnaround, then, he may be head to the bench or even another team via trade. Speculatively, the Red Sox could seek a solid-hitting corner outfielder on the market and have left fielder Andrew Benintendi take over for JBJ in center.
- The Rangers’ Jurickson Profar has easily outperformed teammate Rougned Odor this year. Despite that, the Rangers’ second base job will continue to belong to Odor, in part because of his contract, according to Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram. Odor still has four and a half years remaining on the six-year, $49.5MM guarantee he landed prior to 2017, and because of that, it seems Texas would rather have him try to figure things out as its starting second baseman than on its bench or in the minors. That’s not to suggest Odor will keep Profar off the diamond, though, as manager Jeff Banister said that the latter could see action five times a week at second, third and short. Profar may even emerge as the Rangers’ full-time shortstop in 2019 if Elvis Andrus opts out of his contract after this season and leaves as a free agent, Wilson points out.
- Both Diamondbacks outfielder Steven Souza Jr. and right-hander Shelby Miller are progressing in their injury recoveries, according to Richard Morin of AZCentral.com. Souza, out since May 22 with a strained right pectoral, is close to embarking on a rehab assignment. And Miller, who’s working back from May 2017 Tommy John surgery, looked great in his fourth rehab appearance Saturday. Pitching at the Single-A level, Miller threw 81 pitches and struck out 10 (with just three hits allowed and no walks) over 6 1/3 innings. He also saw his fastball top out at 95 mph. It’s not yet clear whether Miller will make another rehab appearance, nor is it known if he’ll work as a starter or in relief upon his return to the majors, manager Torey Lovullo suggested. Regardless, the D-backs are “very encouraged” by his progress, Lovullo said.