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Trevor Bauer

Latest On Indians’ Top Starters

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The Yankees and Mariners pulled off a blockbuster trade on Monday, when New York sent three prospects – including left-hander Justus Sheffield – to Seattle for southpaw James Paxton.  But before that deal went down, there was a possibility of the Yankees returning Sheffield to the Indians, his first professional organization.

Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com reports the Indians likely could have accepted a Sheffield-fronted package for any of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer, whom they’ve discussed with the Yankees. In the end, however, the two sides couldn’t match up, as Hoynes writes that the Mariners placed a higher value on Sheffield than the Indians did. According to Hoynes, Cleveland still likes Sheffield, whom it chose in the first round of the 2014 draft but later traded to the Yankees in a 2016 deal headlined by reliever Andrew Miller. Still, it’s no surprise that the Tribe elected against trading any of its ace-caliber starters to reunite with the 22-year-old Sheffield.

If Cleveland’s going to move Kluber, Carrasco or Bauer, Hoynes relays that it’ll need to receive a return that would unquestionably help the club stay atop the American League Central, a division it has won three years in a row. Conversely, the Mariners don’t figure to contend in 2019, so they were more willing to accept a future-oriented package for Paxton. In addition to the well-regarded Sheffield, Paxton brought back a pair of non-elite prospects in righty Erik Swanson and outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams.

Even if the Indians were to subtract one of Kluber, Carrasco or Bauer, starting pitching wouldn’t be a weak point for the club, as it also counts Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Danny Salazar and Triston McKenzie among its rotation possibilities. The team’s outfield is an obvious concern, on the other hand, and as Kyle Downing of MLBTR pointed out in previewing the Indians’ offseason, it would make more sense for a Kluber, Carrasco or Bauer trade to net them a cheap, controllable solution in that area.

If the Indians do part with any of their three right-handed stars this offseason, each would warrant a greater return than Paxton. The Big Maple, who’s down to his final two years of arbitration eligibility, hasn’t been as durable as any member of Cleveland’s trio. There’s also a rather strong case to be made that he simply isn’t as good as Kluber, Carrasco or Bauer.

Few have been able to combine dominance and durability like the 32-year-old Kluber dating back to his 2014 breakout. The two-time AL Cy Young winner also comes with up to three years of team control. Kluber’s due $17MM next year, and after that, his employer will have decisions to make on a $17.5MM club option in 2020 and an $18MM option in ’21. Barring major injury issues or a noticeable downturn in performance, those options will be exercised.

Like Paxton, both Carrasco and Bauer have two years of team control left. Carrasco will earn $9MM in 2019 and perhaps another $9.5MM by way of a club option in 2020, though that figure could increase based on AL Cy Young voting. Bauer’s future salaries are less certain than his two teammates’, but he’s projected to earn an affordable sum – $11.6MM – in his second-last year of arbitration eligibility. Although the 27-year-old doesn’t yet have the long-term track record of Kluber or Carrasco, Bauer may have been better than both of them in 2018, when he logged a 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP with 11.34 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9 in 175 1/3 innings.

It’s unclear whether the Indians will trade any of their three No. 1 starters in the coming months, but their futures will undoubtedly be among the majors’ most interesting storylines this offseason. Kluber, Carrasco and Bauer, along with Noah Syndergaard (Mets), Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks), Madison Bumgarner (Giants) and free agents Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel, appear to be the best starters who have at least some chance to end up on the move prior to the 2019 campaign.

Indians To Activate Josh Donaldson

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The Indians announced their plans regarding recently acquired third baseman Josh Donaldson today, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian was among those to cover (Twitter link). He’ll return to the active roster tomorrow and make his debut with his new new organization.

Donaldson, of course, has missed much of the season and only began a rehab assignment for a calf injury in late August. The Indians nevertheless struck a deal to acquire him from the Blue Jays just before the deadline to add postseason-eligible players from outside the organization. Shortly thereafter, he returned to the DL for some additional rehab work, a delicate dance that had some other organizations expressing skepticism.

The 32-year-old Donaldson is a pure rental piece for the Cleveland organization, which has already stamped its ticket to the postseason as a practical matter. In other words, the entirety of the transaction was about getting Donaldson up to full speed by the time the calendar flips to October.

As it turns out, the veteran third baseman with have an 18-game stretch of major-league playing time before he’s tasked with performing under the game’s brightest lights. The immediate plan is to put him in the lineup on Tuesday and then give him a bench spot the next game before bringing him back to the starting lineup on Friday. How things go from there remains to be seen.

Unsurprisingly, the Indians also say they’ll use Donaldson at his accustomed hot corner. That means that star Jose Ramirez will move to second base, bumping Jason Kipnis into the center field mix. The expectation, per Francona, is that this will be a permanent positional shift (at least, that is, for the remainder of the season).

It all seems to be lining up nicely for the Indians, who may well have added a superstar-level performer to their lineup at a relative pittance of a price. Of course, that assumes that the fiery veteran is able not only to stay healthy but also to return to his once-lofty performance levels, which had trended down somewhat earlier in the year. He has certainly given every sign of life possible in his brief minor-league action. In 15 rehab plate appearances, Donaldson is hitting a cool .417/.533/.917 with two dingers, three walks, and nary a strikeout.

In other news out of Cleveland, righty Trevor Bauer — another key rehabbing player — may be ready to throw a bullpen session on Wednesday. (Also via Bastian, on Twitter.) That could put him on track to be ready to go by the time the postseason gets underway, in a relief role at least, but it’s still a tight window.

Health Notes: Martin, Bauer, Devers/Kinsler, Hicks, DeShields, Altuve, Helli/Stras, Wacha/Martinez

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In his latest column, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer calls it “unlikely” that outfielder Leonys Martin will play with the Indians again this season. A trade deadline pickup, Martin has been on the disabled list for more than a week after being diagnosed with a bacterial infection that, at one point, was considered to be life-threatening in nature. While all of baseball breathed a collective sigh of relief when the Indians announced that Martin was in stable condition and expected to make a full recovery, his absence puts Cleveland back in the same spot it was prior to acquiring him in late July. Michael Brantley is performing well again as the team’s regular left fielder, but the rest of the outfield mix is comprised by struggling rookie Greg Allen and poorly performing veterans Rajai Davis and Melky Cabrera. It seems reasonable to expect that the team will be on the hunt for additional outfield help between now and Aug. 31.

Here are some additional health updates from around the game:

  • Indians skipper Terry Francona says the club anticipates that breakout righty Trevor Bauer will be sidelined for four to six weeks with a fibula stress fracture, as T.J. Zuppe of The Athletic was among those to tweet. That’s obviously a huge disappointment for a pitcher who has emerged as one of the best in baseball this year. With the postseason beckoning, it’s also a big concern for the Cleveland ballclub. Of course, the team will not need to worry about the loss down the stretch with the division all but in hand. But it’ll certainly be interesting to see just how Bauer is brought along as the playoffs approach.
  • It was a mixed bag of injury news today for the Red Sox, who will send third baseman Rafael Devers to the 10-day disabled list while activating second bagger Ian Kinsler. No further roster moves will be necessary to accommodate the change. Devers is hitting the shelf for the third time in the last six weeks or so and it’s the second occasion as to which the hamstring is to blame. That said, it’s not clear that the organization really believes there’s cause for concern that Devers won’t be at full strength come October.
  • Tigers backstop John Hicks likely won’t make it back this year after requiring abdominal surgery, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press recently reported. That’s a disappointing turn for a player who has turned in a solid performance in a robust role this year. Hicks, who is nearing his 29th birthday, has hit within range of league average at the MLB level since landing in Detroit. While he has been miscast as a part-time first baseman, his offensive work is more than adequate for a time-sharing catcher.
  • The Rangers have placed center fielder Delino DeShields Jr. on the 10-day DL with a finger fracture. He suffered the break to the tip of his right middle finger. Drew Robinson will be recalled to take the roster spot. It has been a tough year at the plate for DeShields, who turned 26 just yesterday. He has swiped 18 bags on the year, but carries only a .204/.303/.272 slash over 348 plate appearances. As the Rangers look ahead to an offseason of uncertainty, they’d surely like to see DeShields in action as much as possible, so the hope will be that he can bounce back relatively quickly.
  • Elsewhere in Texas, the slumping Astros were glad today to get some promising injury reports. Outfielder George Springer was activated off of the 10-day DL, as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports (Twitter links). Meanwhile, star second bagger Jose Altuve will likely need a rehab stint but seems to be progressing from his knee issues. The ’Stros are trying to hold off a surprisingly strong challenge in the division.
  • Nationals righty Jeremy Hellickson is destined for his own DL stint, as Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com was among those to report. Fortunately, he’s dealing with a sprain rather than a break in his wrist, which was injured in a play at the plate. It seems the Nats are hopeful that Stephen Strasburg could be ready to return by Tuesday, when Hellickson was next scheduled to start. Losing Hellickson would only be the latest blow for an organization that has dealt with problem after problem in 2018. While it’s still not impossible to imagine a late surge, the Nats need all hands on deck to make a comeback plausible.
  • For the Cardinals, it has been all positives of late. But the team could still stand to get a few pieces back. In particular, righties Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez are on the come back trail. As MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tweets, Wacha is set to begin a rehab assignment in short order and Martinez is now working in a relief capacity in the minors. In the case of Martinez, the plan is for him to shift to the bullpen when he is ready to roll, which perhaps won’t be far off now that he’s pitching competitively.

Indians Place Trevor Bauer On DL With “Small Stress Fracture” In Right Fibula

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Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer has been placed on the 10-day disabled list due to a “small stress fracture” in his right fibula, manager Terry Francona tells reporters (Twitter link via Jordan Bastian of MLB.com). Bauer sustained the injury upon being hit by a comebacker in a recent start, and there’s no timetable for his return to action just yet. Left-hander Tyler Olson is up from Triple-A to take his spot on the roster for now, and righty Adam Plutko will join the team this weekend to start in Bauer’s place.

Fortunately for the Indians, they can afford to be cautious with a return for Bauer. Cleveland holds a virtually insurmountable 12.5-game lead over the Twins in the American League Central with just under seven weeks to play this season, so while the loss of one of their best pitchers undoubtedly stings, it’ll have almost no bearing on their ability to reach the postseason.

Having said that, the eventual determination of Bauer’s recovery timeline will be a significant development to follow. Certainly, Cleveland will hope to have Bauer back in enough time that he’s able to be relied upon as a member of the postseason rotation. The Indians will likely pair Corey Kluber and Bauer atop their starting mix in the postseason, giving them one of the more formidable one-two punches in all of October baseball (Bauer’s health permitting).

The 27-year-old Bauer has long been touted as a potential top-of-the-rotation arm, and he’s realized that potential and stepped up into “ace” territory in 2018. Through 166 frames this year, Bauer boasts a sensational 2.22 ERA with 11.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.43 HR/9 and a 44.2 percent ground-ball rate.

Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (2.38), xFIP (3.12) and SIERA (3.18) all largely support his breakout campaign, and Bauer’s combination of innings, strikeouts and run prevention would quite likely have thrust him among the front-runners for American League Cy Young honors. If he’s able to return in reasonably short order, perhaps that’s still possible, but missing even a few starts could jeopardize that possibility, given the strength of performances by other contenders, including Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Blake Snell and his teammate (and reigning Cy Young winner) Kluber.

Pitching Notes: Bauer, Slegers, McCarthy, Cody

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In a recent podcast with Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer suggested he’d only take one-year deals for the remainder of his career (partially due to the high stakes of a bet with a childhood friend). Although that seems radical and somewhat irresponsible on the surface, Eno Sarris dives into the subject in a piece for The Athletic and discovers that maybe the idea isn’t really all that bad. Although Bauer would be giving up a lot of security, he’d likely earn a significant bump in average annual value. Bauer has never had health issues, so in his case the health risks might not be as severe as other players seeking long-term deals to lock up the most total dollars possible. All in all, Sarris comes to the conclusion that the contract strategy could feasibly benefit Bauer in the long run.

Here are some other pitcher-related notes from around baseball…

  • The Twins placed righty Aaron Slegers on the disabled list today with shoulder inflammation, and plan to recall rookie Fernando Romero to make a start in his stead. Slegers had a rough go of it in three appearances (two starts) this season, allowing eight earned runs in 12 2/3 innings with just five strikeouts. Romero, on the other hand, has made ten starts this season and turned in a reasonable performance thus far ( 4.38 ERA).
  • Braves right-hander Brandon McCarthy is rehabbing his knee injury, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports, but oddly enough he’s doing it at his home in Arizona with his own physical therapist. Obviously that’s far from the norm at this point in the season, particularly given Atlanta’s status as a contending team in the NL East. McCarthy came to Atlanta in a financially-motivated trade with the Dodgers, but has barely managed to exceed five innings per start in his tenure with the Braves thus far, and has posted an ugly 4.92 ERA.
  • Another Rangers prospect has gone down with the dreaded ulnar collateral ligament injury, and will require Tommy John surgery, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. This time, it’s right-hander Kyle Cody, who had been attempting rest and rehab as an alternative to surgery. Cody was shut down for an extended period after experiencing issues during spring training; he’ll now go under the knife and likely be out until the beginning of 2020. The towering 6’7″ hurler was a sixth-round pick of the Rangers back in 2016.

Quick Hits: Lindor, Bauer, Rangers, Ichiro, Bae, Boxberger

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It doesn’t look like the Indians will reach any extensions with Francisco Lindor or Trevor Bauer before the season begins, though the team did at least explore the possibility of long-term deals with both players, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes.  It isn’t any surprise that the Tribe looked into gaining some cost certainty on either man even though Bauer is already controlled through the 2020 season and Lindor through 2021.  In the latter’s case, Lindor is still a year away from salary arbitration, though one wonders if Lindor may feel confident enough in his abilities to forego guaranteed money now and wait until free agency to chase an even bigger contract.  He already turned down an extension offer reportedly worth around $100MM last offseason, and his stock has only risen after a superb 2017 campaign.

Here’s more from around the baseball world as we enter the offseason’s final day…

  • The Rangers seems to be done their offseason shopping, as GM Jon Daniels stated to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan and other reporters.  “I couldn’t be more clear, I don’t expect any more significant acquisitions.  There is not a lot going on from our standpoint in the free-agent market,” Daniels said.  This also seems to include a pursuit of Greg Holland, as Daniels reiterated that Texas plans to be flexible with the ninth-inning role and allow a closer to emerge from several candidates.  Adrian Beltre, for one, still feels that a more established arm is needed, as he feels the end-game plan is “an area that’s going to be a question mark. Normally, when you have really good teams, you have [a closer.]  You have closers out there in the free-agent market. … Ideally for me, you get a closer, put him in there and use him.”
  • Ichiro Suzuki may begin the season on the DL to give him more time to fully recover from a right calf strain, with Mariners manager Scott Servais telling the Associated Press and other media that a decision will be made tomorrow when the team sees how Suzuki is feeling after playing seven innings today.  Utilityman Taylor Motter looks to make the Opening Day roster if Ichiro isn’t available.
  • The Pirates’ interest in Korean shortstop prospect Ji-Hwan Bae dates back almost two years, Elizabeth Bloom of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes, and the team was finally able to land the 18-year-old after he was made a free agent following the Braves’ international signing scandal.  Given a second chance at the signing, Pittsburgh again made a push, and Bae said (via an interpreter) that he chose them over other suitors because the “Pirates were the most active team approaching” about a contract.  The Pirates thought enough of Bae to give him $1.25MM, the second-largest bonus the franchise has ever given to an international prospect, and GM Neal Huntington feels Bae can stick at shortstop over the long term.
  • Brad Boxberger has been named the Diamondbacks’ closer, the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro and others reported.  Boxberger posted a league-best 41 saves in his first season as the Rays’ closer back in 2015, though injuries both cost him the job and limited him to 53 2/3 total innings in 2016-17.  Now healthy, Boxberger could again blossom into an effective late-game weapon for Arizona, though Piecoro notes that the larger factor in the Diamondbacks’ decision might’ve been the team’s preference to keep Archie Bradley as a fireman rather than in a strict ninth-inning role.  For updates on every team’s closing situation, be sure to follow MLBTR’s sister Twitter feed @CloserNews.

Trevor Bauer Wins Arbitration Hearing

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Right-hander Trevor Bauer has won his arbitration hearing against the Indians, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (via Twitter). Bauer’s arb case featured one of the most significant gaps between the player’s submitted salary and the team’s figure (as seen in the MLBTR Arbitraiton Tracker), and he’ll now be paid at $6.525MM instead of $5.3MM thanks to the win. Bauer is represented by Wasserman.

Bauer, who recently turned 27, receives nearly a $3MM raise on last year’s $3.55MM salary with today’s ruling. The right-hander closed out the season with a 4.19 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 46.4 percent ground-ball rate through 176 1/3 regular-season innings. He went on to make one dominant postseason appearance against the Yankees before being clubbed for four runs in 1 2/3 innings in Game 4 of the ALDS.

Bauer’s bottom-line run prevention numbers might not look especially impressive, but they’re marred by a dreadful start to the season. The former No. 3 overall pick was sporting an ERA north of 7.00 through his first six trips to the hill, but he turned in a strong 3.45 ERA through 143 1/3 innings to close out the regular season — including a pristine 2.42 ERA and 85-to-19 K/BB ratio in his final 13 appearances.

Bauer will join Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar in the Cleveland rotation this season, with Josh Tomlin and Mike Clevinger both vying for the final spot in the starting five. Bauer, a Super Two player, has now gone through the arbitration process twice and will be eligible twice more before qualifying as a free agent following the completion of the 2020 season.

Quick Hits: Odorizzi, Angels, Bauer, Tribe, Suspensions, McKenry

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The Angels are among many teams that have been in talks with the Rays regarding right-hander Jake Odorizzi, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Odorizzi would be the second noteworthy offseason addition to an Angels staff that welcomed potential ace Shohei Ohtani back in December. He’d also offer the Angels a more proven option than just about all of their current starters, with the exception of Garrett Richards and arguably Matt Shoemaker. Although the 27-year-old Odorizzi is coming off a disappointing, injury-shortened season, he has fared respectability in his career – 705 1/3 innings of 3.83 ERA/4.23 FIP ball – and comes with two years of affordable arbitration control. Odorizzi will head to an arb hearing Monday to determine whether he’ll make $6.05MM or $6.35MM in 2018, Topkin notes.

More from around the game…

  • Indians righty Trevor Bauer had his own arbitration hearing this past Thursday, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com. Results should come out this weekend, Hoynes hears. Bauer, who’s in his second of four possible arb years, filed for $6.52MM – a healthy amount more than the $5.3MM the team offered.
  • Four minor leaguers – Rays catcher Nick Ciuffo, Padres right-hander Alex Cunningham, Phillies righty Steve Geltz and Pirates second baseman Mitchell Tolman – received suspensions for drug use on Saturday (via Bob Nightengale of USA Today, on Twitter). The harshest punishment went to Geltz, who will serve a 100-game ban without pay after testing positive for a drug of abuse for the third time in his career. The 30-year-old, who signed a minor league deal with the Phillies last month, previously sat 50 games in 2014 after testing positive for marijuana. Meanwhile, Ciuffo, Cunningham and Tolman each got 50-game suspensions. Ciuffo and Tolman tested positive for a drug of abuse for the second time, while Cunningham tested positive for an amphetamine. The most notable member of that trio is the 22-year-old Ciuffo, whom the Rays selected in the first round of the 2013 draft and who currently sits 27th on MLB.com’s ranking of the team’s top 30 prospects. Ciuffo, who got an invitation to big league camp prior to the suspension, took to Twitter on Saturday to apologize.
  • Former major league catcher Michael McKenry retired from baseball earlier this month, Erik Bacharach of the Daily News Journal relays. The 32-year-old McKenry told Bacharach he “had a lot of opportunities to play,” but he’ll instead work as Middle Tennessee State University’s director of player development and, according to Adam Berry of MLB.com, serve as a Pirates broadcaster. McKenry played with the Pirates from 2011-13 and was particularly effective in ’12, when he hit .233/.320/.442 with 1.7 fWAR in 275 plate appearances. He also saw major league action with the Rockies, who selected him in Round 7 of the 2006 draft, and Cardinals. McKenry concluded his playing career last season as a member of Tampa Bay’s Triple-A affiliate, with which he racked up 272 PAs and batted .209/.338/.324.

Central Notes: Duffy, Cubs, Bauer

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Here’s the latest from the game’s central divisions:

  • Royals lefty Danny Duffy says he is throwing pain free after an offseason elbow clean-up, as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports. “Honestly, I had forgotten what it felt like to throw without any pain or discomfort,” says Duffy. That’s good news for Kansas City, as the organization will expect the southpaw to lead an uncertain staff in 2018 and beyond — unless, that is, he isn’t traded at some point. Other organizations would no doubt have interest in Duffy’s reasonable contract ($61MM through 2021), though we haven’t seen any indication that the Royals are likely to move the 29-year-old this winter.
  • Over at The Athletic, Patrick Mooney has a pair of articles (subscription links) regarding the market’s two top pitchers. The Cubs have plenty of money left to work with, he notes, and have seemingly remained engaged with Yu Darvish for much of the winter. That said, there are still alternatives for both team and player; Mooney says the Cubs have other scenarios in mind and notes the possibility of mystery teams in Darvish’s market. It’s less clear, Mooney suggests, that there’s a realistic path back to Chicago for Jake Arrieta. As MLBTR’s 2018 Free Agent Tracker shows, Darvish and Arrieta are just a few of the many starters still available; remarkably, the Cubs’ early agreement with Tyler Chatwood still paces this winter’s market for rotation contracts.
  • The Indians are readying for an arbitration hearing with righty Trevor Bauer, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer writes. Cleveland is utilizing a file-and-trial approach, says Hoynes, meaning a panel will decide whether the righty plays for $5.3MM or $6.52MM in the coming season. The results won’t just determine whether Bauer can pick up an additional $1.22MM for the coming season; his 2018 salary will also set a base rate for raises in his final two seasons of arb eligibility. As always, you can keep track of all the arbitration developments with MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker.

Unresolved 2018 Arbitration Cases

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We’ve covered a whole lot of arbitration deals today, many of them reached before today’s deadline to exchange filing figures. Some other agreements have come together after team and player submitted their numbers. It’s still possible, of course, that these situations will be resolved before an arbitration hearing becomes necessary. (At this point, we seem to lack full clarity on teams’ approaches to negotiations after the filing deadline. And most organizations make exceptions for multi-year deals even if they have a file-and-trial stance.)

Some situations could even be dealt with in short order. As things stand, though, these unresolved arbitration cases could turn into significant hearings. (As always, MLBTR’s 2018 arbitration projections can be found here; you will also want to reference MLBTR’s 2018 arbitration tracker.)

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