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Indians Rumors: Encarnacion, Diaz, Alonso, Santana, Myers, Kluber, Bauer, Kipnis

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The Indians continue to explore trade scenarios involving their veteran players, including some three-team proposals involving Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso, and Yandy Diaz, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.  The three-team discussions are mostly about unloading salaries, which is why Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer have “for the most part” not been involved in the multi-team talks, Hoynes notes.  In general, Cleveland is exploring any and all possible options with their veteran players as the team looks to thread the needle between staying competitive in 2019 while still freeing up payroll space both for next season and in the future.

The Tribe was linked to Carlos Santana in trade rumors yesterday, and a reunion with their former first baseman would be possible if Cleveland was able to offload Encarnacion or Alonso in another trade (or potentially maybe even the same trade, if the Mariners were also involved in a three-team swap).  Santana has already changed teams once this winter and continues to be a popular trade target given that the Mariners are another team looking to cut payroll.  In the latest update, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that Santana could possibly be traded over the next few days.

If Santana did return to Cleveland, some financial juggling would likely have to take place due to the money involved with all of the first basemen.  Santana is owed $40MM over the next two seasons, while Encarnacion is owed $25MM through 2019 (a $20MM salary in 2019 and a $5MM buyout of a $20MM club option for 2020) and Alonso $8MM in 2019, plus a $9MM vesting option for 2020 based on plate appearances and a clean physical.  In reports from earlier this week, Hoynes suggested that the controllable Diaz could be added to a deal involving one of these larger salaries in order to make the salary hit more palatable for another team.

Speaking of big contracts, Hoynes also notes that Cleveland has been “linked” to Padres first baseman/outfielder Wil Myers in trade rumors.  That would be an even more surprising addition for the cost-conscious Tribe to make, and it would require even more salary-shifting given that Myers is owed $64MM through the 2022 season.  It isn’t clear if the Indians were strongly pursuing Myers or just doing their due diligence in overall talks with the Padres.  Hoynes mentions that the Tribe has interest in some of the MLB-ready young players in San Diego’s organization, though there has been “little headway” in those discussions.

There has also been “little interest” in Jason Kipnis as the Tribe tries to market the veteran second baseman/outfielder.  Given that Kipnis has posted below-average hitting numbers in each of the last two seasons, it isn’t surprising that the Indians are struggling to find a trade partner, especially given the $17MM remaining on Kipnis’ contract.

Central Trade Rumblings: Indians Starters, Castellanos, Cervelli

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Let’s round up the latest trade chatter from the central divisions:

  • Though he had previously indicated otherwise, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link) that the Indians are exploring trade scenarios in which they’d dump a big contract (likely Jason Kipnis or Edwin Encarnacion) while dealing a top starter (Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer). Clearly, the Indians are still working through scenarios that’ll increase their roster flexibility. Infusing young talent and enhancing payroll flexibility would both be of interest, and it’s not clear that either is a particular priority. It’ll certainly be fascinating to see how the market develops for those high-end righties.
  • In talks with the Dodgers, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link), the Indians are showing interest in highly regarded prospect Alex Verdugo. The Los Angeles outfielder is clearly due for a full crack at the big leagues after turning in consecutive strong seasons at the Triple-A level. Still just 22 years of age, Verdugo is noted for his high-end left-handed hit tool and contact ability — not unlike Michael Brantley, who recently wrapped up a successful tenure with the Cleveland organization and who is expected to land a large contract elsewhere.
  • The Tigers are “determined to move on” from outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, Antony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports. There’s initial interest from other clubs, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). It seems the Braves have at least “checked in” on the 26-year-old, who is projected by MLBTR to earn a $11.3MM salary in his final season of arbitration eligibility. The Atlanta organization has an opening in right field and has plenty of assets that’d be of interest to Detroit. Castellanos certainly has produced the kind of offensive output that’d be of interest — he’s slashing .285/.336/.495 over the past three seasons — but comes with anything but a sterling defensive reputation.
  • Pirates backstop Francisco Cervelli emerged recently as a possible trade chip, but Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets that the market situation may not be ripe for a move. With a $11.5MM salary and history of concussions, Cervelli seems not to be drawing the kind of interest that the Bucs would need to see to make a deal. While the Pirates obviously have confidence in their internal replacement options, Elias Diaz and Jacob Stallings, they surely also value Cervelli. After all, he just turned in one of the best seasons of any backstop in the game in 2018 and the Bucs made a notable pair of win-soon moves at the ’18 trade deadline.

Central Rumors: Tribe, Kluber, Bauer, Reds, Scooter, Bucs, Brewers

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The Indians extended right-hander Carlos Carrasco this week, but his days of sharing a rotation with fellow righties Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer appear to be over. Cleveland is going to trade either Kluber or Bauer this offseason, though it’s not clear who’s more likely to go, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says (video link). Either of those aces would likely command an impressive return in a trade, with the 32-year-old Kluber controllable for three more seasons and Bauer (28 in January) eligible for arbitration for another two. The Indians’ goal in trading either Kluber ($17.5MM salary in 2019) or Bauer (a projected $11.6MM) would be to reduce payroll and increase their young talent base, notes Rosenthal. As a result, Rosenthal casts doubt on the possibility of the Indians attaching second baseman Jason Kipnis to Kluber or Bauer in a trade. Jettisoning the remaining $17MM on the underperforming Kipnis’ contract would better the Indians’ payroll outlook, but forcing a Kluber or Bauer suitor to take him would greatly damage the return they’d get for either pitcher.

More from the majors’ Central divisions…

  • Reds second baseman Scooter Gennett carried his surprising 2017 breakout into last season, when he finished fifth at his position in fWAR (4.5). The Cincinnati native is now a year away from free agency, but with the Winter Meetings approaching, a potential extension isn’t one of the Reds’ main priorities right now, president Dick Williams explained Friday (via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). “I wouldn’t expect it before the calendar turns [to 2019],” Williams said. “There’s too much up in the air in terms of roster construction going forward. I don’t think you’ll see us working on any extensions for anybody — that’s not just Scooter-specific. But I don’t see any other extensions happening in the next 30 days while we’re working out the roster.” Williams added that the Reds “will be careful about a lot of extensions,” so it’s unclear how serious they are about re-upping Gennett. Barring a new deal, Gennett’s projected to earn $10.7MM in 2019 – a healthy raise over the $5.7MM he pulled in during the career year he enjoyed in 2018.
  • Unsurprisingly, the low-payroll Pirates aren’t in position to make any splashes at the Winter Meetings, Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic writes (subscription required). Still, general manager Neal Huntington has interest in shortstops and left-handed relievers, per Biertempfel. Notably, though, it doesn’t appear the Pirates’ longstanding union with shortstop Jordy Mercer will continue, according to Biertempfel. Mercer has been with the Pittsburgh organization since it selected him in the third round of the 2008 draft, but the two sides have had almost no contact since the end of last season, Biertempfel reports.
  • Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel looks at potential trade pieces at the major league level for the Brewers, naming Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton and Eric Thames as possible candidates. It’s “unlikely” the Brewers will retain both Santana and Broxton, as each outfielder is out of minor league options, notes Haudricourt, who adds that Thames “could be had in the right deal.” A first baseman/outfielder, Thames experienced a dip in production in 2018 and saw Jesus Aguilar take hold of the first base position in Milwaukee. The 32-year-old Thames is due $6MM in 2019, and with the Brewers having a limited amount of payroll room, getting his money off the books may help them upgrade elsewhere. Second base is one area Milwaukee could try to bolster, though considering high-end prospect Keston Hiura is looming, the team’s not going to make a long-term commitment there this offseason, Haudricourt relays.

Trade Chatter: Seager, Mariners, Gray, Indians, Rays

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As the Mariners continue to explore further ways to get younger and shed payroll, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the team won’t be attaching Kyle Seager’s contract to Mitch Haniger in an effort to escape the remaining three years and $56MM on Seager’s seven-year deal (subscription required). First and foremost, the Seattle organization considers Haniger to be among the five best corner outfielders in baseball, Rosenthal notes. Beyond that, however, Seager’s contract contains a clause converting a $15MM club option for the 2022 season into a player option, should he be traded. Because that clause makes the remainder of the contract so unappealing to trade partners, he may very well need to rebuild some value in 2019 before he can be flipped. Rosenthal’s column also sheds some light on the Mariners’ other discussions on Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz, in addition to highlighting the organization’s affinity for newly acquired prospect Jarred Kelenic.

Some more trade rumblings from around the league…

  • The Padres and Brewers are among the teams still in contact with the Yankees about a potential Sonny Gray swap, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter links). Both organizations have been tied to various starting pitching options, though the Padres are a particularly curious fit, given their focus on the 2020 season and Gray’s status as a one-year rental. However, as Morosi’s colleague, AJ Cassavell, explains in greater detail, San Diego’s interest has some logic to it. Gray’s stock is down, and a resurgence in San Diego (like many arms before him) could allow him to either be traded for a greater price next July or position him to receive a qualifying offer next offseason. Even if the acquisition doesn’t pan out, he wouldn’t put a huge dent into a deep San Diego farm system. As for the Brewers, they’ve already got a deep collection of right-handed starters, but perhaps they view Gray as a premium rebound candidate and/or feel that acquiring him could allow them to deal from the back end of their current collection of rotation candidates.
  • ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that the market for Indians starters Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer could come more into focus now that Patrick Corbin is off the board. Notably, Olney suggests that Cleveland “might” ask that a trade partner take Jason Kipnis and the remaining money on his contract ($17MM), though obviously doing so would rather notably diminish the return that the Indians would receive for any of their top three starters. Still, that scenario would certainly hold appeal to deeper-pocketed suitors of the Indians’ starters — particularly those with a good deal of long-term payroll flexibility (e.g. the Phillies).
  • The Rays were among the teams with interest in Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link), although Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen strongly downplayed the possibility of trading Syndergaard earlier today. That said, Tampa’s interest in “Thor” is nonetheless notable, as it points to an interest in adding a controllable arm if one can be found at a reasonable financial price point. Then again, as a high-end starter with a projected salary under $6MM and three years of team control remaining, Syndergaard is (or was) something of a rarity on the trade market. Speculatively speaking, perhaps either Michael Fulmer or Jon Gray could be viewed in that same light, but both right-handers are coming off poor seasons, making it tough for their respective organizations to sell low.

Pitching Notes: Eovaldi, Corbin, Kluber/Bauer, Soria, Holland

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If there was any doubt as to the Red Sox’ desire to bring back Nathan Eovaldi after his strong run with the club late in 2018, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski put it to rest in comments today. As Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to report, Dombrowski confirmed that the organization has been engaged with Eovaldi’s camp this winter — though he also cautioned that “there’s a lot of interest” in the righty leaguewide. How far the Sox will go in the bidding remains to be seen, but Dombrowski said that Eovaldi is “a guy that we love.” With only a few major needs to be accounted for, the defending World Series champs seem a prime potential landing spot — as we predicted at the outset of the offseason.

  • The Padres also have interest in Eovaldi, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (via Twitter). It has long been rumored that the San Diego club would hunt for starting pitching this winter, but the injury-prone, high-octane 28-year-old would make for a particularly interesting target. After all, numerous big spenders (see above) are in the fray. For the budget-conscious Friars, beating the market for Eovaldi would surely mean taking on a rather significant risk. Perhaps that’s part of a more general strategy for a team that has plenty of interesting arms filtering through the system and is looking to move toward contention now while adding players who’ll contribute for some time to come. The San Diego franchise has also kicked around trade concepts with the Mets on Noah Syndergaard and, as Lin notes, already agreed to a hefty two-year pact with Garrett Richards in hopes he’ll recover and turn in a strong 2020 campaign.
  • Even as Eovaldi draws plenty of interest it seems the early market will be driven by Patrick Corbin, the excellent lefty who just completed a tour of several big-spending east-coast clubs. The Nationals, Yankees, and Phillies still profile as the likeliest landing spots, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets, though he notes that other teams are still in the mix. A decision, in any event, still seems to come sooner than later. Yankees GM Brian Cashman made clear that his organization is a serious pursuer of a hurler with deep ties to the region in an interview this evening with Jack Curry of the YES Network (write-up via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). “We’re doing everything in our power to put ourselves in position to be a legitimate consideration,” says Cashman, who calls Corbin “a special talent.” This sort of public endorsement obviously won’t decide the matter, but it surely indicates that the Yankees are engaged in a full press.
  • The trade side of the starting pitching market remains somewhat more difficult to assess at this stage, but the Indians still seem to be driving the bus (at least unless and until we learn more about the seriousness of the Mets’ intentions regarding Syndergaard). MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggests on Twitter that the Cleveland org will likely wait until there has been some movement at the upper levels of free agency before moving Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, though it’s not entirely clear why that’d necessarily be the case. At the moment, Morosi adds in a subsequent tweet, the Braves are not actively engaged on either hurler. Of course, it’d likely be unwise to rule out the Atlanta club at this stage, given its assortment of intriguing young talent and desire to add a frontline rotation piece.
  • Veteran reliever Joakim Soria is drawing interest from at least a handful of clubs at this early stage of the free agent market, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets. The Diamondbacks, Angels, Yankees, Braves, and Reds are all involved to some extent, per the report, representing an interesting slate of organizations. While the New York and Atlanta clubs are clearly in position to add veteran talent in a bid to repeat their postseason appearances from 2018, the other teams listed by Chavez are in somewhat less-certain positions in respect to the open market. The Los Angeles and Cincinnati ballclubs are surely interested in spending to contend, but will need to choose their targets wisely. Meanwhile, Arizona is exploring sell-side deals while also trying to achieve value with new investments. That Soria appeals to all of these teams seems to suggest that the league believes the 34-year-old has plenty left in the tank. And for good reason: he just wrapped up a campaign in which he spun 60 2/3 innings of 3.12 ERA ball, with a healthy 11.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 along with a personal-best 14.4% swinging-strike rate.
  • Free agent southpaw Derek Holland is drawing multi-year interest, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). It’s all but impossible to gauge his true market at this stage, with some bigger dominoes still to fall, but it stands to reason that he’d make some degree of sense for a fairly broad group of clubs. At the outset of this year’s hot stove market, we guessed Holland could warrant a two-year, $15MM commitment. Though there are obvious limits to his value at 32 years of age, Holland did finally break out of a multi-year malaise with a strong 2018 campaign in which he contributed 171 1/3 frames and worked to a 3.57 ERA — his first full season of sub-4.00 ball since way back in 2013.

AL Notes: M’s, Seager, Yanks, Sanchez, Tribe, Bauer

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The latest from the American League…

  • If the trade-happy Mariners have their way, third baseman Kyle Seager will be the next veteran to depart. The club’s willing to do “whatever it takes” to deal Seager, Buster Olney of ESPN writes (subscription required). Long one of the majors’ most underrated players, the 31-year-old Seager is coming off an uncharacteristically rough season and still has a guaranteed $57MM left on his contract. Seager’s presence is no longer needed in Seattle, which is rebuilding and trying to cut payroll, though it could be difficult to deal him on the heels of such a disappointing campaign. With that in mind, Olney suggests the Mariners could either swap Seager for another team’s unwanted contract or package him with one of their best remaining assets (Mitch Haniger or Jean Segura) to get his money off the books.
  • Like Seager, Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez endured a surprisingly poor season in 2018. However, Sanchez is “not for sale,” general manager Brian Cashman tells Jack Curry of the YES Network (video link). The Yankees expect to be “proven correct” that Sanchez is a franchise catcher, per Cashman, who has consistently defended the 26-year-old in recent months. So, although Sanchez has come up in trade rumors as recently as this week, it appears he’ll stay put.
  • Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer is another offseason trade candidate, but he explained to MLB Network this week that it wouldn’t make sense for the Tribe to deal him now. “There’s a lot of reasons I think that [the Indians should not trade me],” Bauer said (via Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com). “Ultimately, I think the surplus value on me this year is just way too high. Even with an arbitration raise, you’re probably talking about $15 to $20 million of surplus value.” Bauer added that it would be more logical for the Indians to move him a year from now, when his price will rise and he’ll be just one year from reaching free agency. The 27-year-old provided oodles of surplus value to the Indians in 2018, when he logged an amazing 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP over 175 1/3 innings for a little more than $6.5MM. He’s projected to earn another reasonable salary – $11.6MM – in 2019.

AL Notes: Royals, Astros, Bauer

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In light of yesterday’s Yan Gomes trade, those teams still in need of a backstop for 2019 will be surveying the market with renewed urgency. One guy not likely to be on the move is Salvador Perez. The story has not changed for Salvy and the Royals, whose price for Perez is “so exorbitant no team would meet it,” per the Athletic’s Rustin Dodd (subscription link). While teams around the league would certainly check in on Perez were he to become available, it is unlikely anyone values him as highly as the Royals. The 28-year-old catcher is owed $36MM through 2021 and hasn’t had an OBP over .300 since 2013. His power output has remained consistent, however, and his merits extend behind the field of play, as he is a key presence both for players and for fans, as a leader in the clubhouse and as the one of the last core position players from back-to-back American League pennants. More from the Royals and the rest of the American League…

  • As for other Royals targets, Whit Merrifield is a slightly more achievable trade target, but given his four years of team control, the Royals are unlikely to part with their second baseman either. Lefty Danny Duffy can likely be had, but given his down year (4.88 ERA, 4.1 BB/9) and the over $45MM still on his deal, the Royals are better off keeping him and letting him restore some value in 2019. A quiet offseason looms for the Royals and GM Dayton Moore, who has said previously he expects Kansas City will be better-positioned to be aggressive in the market by 2021.
  • The Astros tendered contracts to ten players before yesterday’s deadline, most of whom were fairly safe bets to return to Houston. Outfielder Jake Marisnick was one on-the-bubble candidate, but he returns for a third season of arbitration eligibility in Houston. Marisnick has struggled at the dish, carrying a career .226/.278/.374 line into 2019, but he is an elite defensive center fielder, a valuable asset for the Astros, who never seem wholly comfortable leaving George Springer full-time in center. Marisnick does have one option remaining*, so Houston can send him down to Triple A without exposing him to waivers. The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan (subscription link) also notes that fellow benchmates Tyler White and Tony Kemp are without options, limiting flexibility for GM Jeff Luhnow. None of the three would net much of a return on the trade market on their own, though all three are cheap and useful enough to be included as a complimentary piece to a larger deal. The Astros do have options in the minor leagues should they deal Marisnick, most notably Myles Straw, who could replace Marisnick as the speed and defense option in center off the bench.
  • Both Kaplan and Fancred’s Jon Heyman suggest the Astros are looking for a primary catching option to top the depth chart ahead of Max Stassi. The Marlins J.T. Realmuto is the dream get, but Houston has thus-far refused to surrender star pitching prospect Forrest Whitley. Heyman notes that they may be willing to part with outfielder Kyle Tucker, a likely must-have for Miami in any package for Realmuto.
  • Heyman also notes that in Cleveland, though most of the trade noise has focused on Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer is actually the most likely of the three to be shipped out. This makes sense with the recent rumblings of extension talks with Carrasco, though there’s nothing close as of yet regarding Bauer. The Indians would love to keep him, but of the three, Bauer’s arbitration eligibility makes him more fiscally volatile than either of Carrasco or Kluber, who are under multi-year contracts. The perfect trade package for the Indians would probably include controllable pieces to augment what they already have in either the outfield or the bullpen, two areas in need of securing this offseason.

*Original post incorrectly listed Marisnick as having no options remaining (in referencing the Kaplan piece), but he does in fact have one option year left.

Dodgers, Indians Have Reportedly Discussed Trade Scenarios Involving Corey Kluber

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The Indians’ top three starters have seen their names hit the rumor mill this winter, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi writes that the Dodgers are among the teams who’ve discussed various trade concepts with Cleveland in the past few days. Specifically, one iteration involves both Corey Kluber and Yasiel Puig, per Morosi, though it’s clear that there are still some gaps to be filled in with regard to that specific package, as there’s no logical scenario in which Puig is any sort of centerpiece to a Kluber trade.

In fact, while the Indians have obvious outfield needs, it’s difficult to see a player as expensive as Puig being a prime target to fill that need. The reported willingness to listen to offers on Kluber and others seemed to stem from a desire to create payroll flexibility and add controllable young talent. Puig checks neither of those boxes and is a clear downgrade from Kluber in terms of overall value. While Kluber will earn $17MM next season, Puig is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $11.3MM himself. Shedding a mere $6MM or so in payroll wouldn’t be of that much benefit to Cleveland unless the Dodgers were to add significant pre-arbitration talent and/or take on some additional money in return.

Morosi writes that the Dodgers would likely be willing to part with lefty Alex Wood and pitching prospect Yadier Alvarez, but that pairing, again, presents issues. Namely, Wood is projected to earn $9MM in arbitration and, like Puig, is a free agent next winter. He’d be a fine one-year replacement for Kluber, but it’s the idea of moving Kluber to acquire a pair of expensive veterans who have just one season of team control remaining isn’t logical on its surface, unless there are other moving parts at play.

Alvarez, meanwhile, was touted as a mega-prospect when he signed for $16MM out of Cuba (plus a matching $16MM luxury tax penalty), but he’s yet to top 100 innings in any of his three seasons in the Dodgers’ minor league ranks. Beyond that, the 2018 campaign was far and away his worst since signing; in 48 1/3 innings at the Double-A level, Alvarez posted a 4.66 ERA with 52 strikeouts against an alarming total of 43 walks. There’s still ample time for the 22-year-old to realize his potential, but he’s not the type of young player who’d headline a package for one of the game’s elite pitchers.

The Dodgers do have the type of young talent that Cleveland would covet in any deal involving Kluber, of course, and it seems likely that any talks centering around him, Carlos Carrasco or Trevor Bauer have involved several names. But a deal including any of Puig, Wood or Alvarez would require the addition of some prominent young, controllable players in order to sufficiently pique Cleveland’s interest. Furthermore, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Cleveland adds the salary requirements that would come with both Puig and Wood in the same deal without some additional financial considerations coming into play.

Market Chatter: Indians, Moose, Cano, Diaz, Thor, Pads

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The Indians’ rotation has come up in trade rumors over the past month, as Cleveland looks to manage a roster with multiple holes and a crowded payroll that is already at franchise-record levels. However, while Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco have been speculative candidates to be moved, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that teams who’ve spoken to the Indians get the sense that Cleveland is more amenable to trading right-hander Trevor Bauer. Kluber is controlled through 2021, while Carrasco is locked into a club-friendly deal through the 2020 season. Bauer, though, is arbitration-eligible for another two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $11.6MM in 2019 — a projection he explored at greater length earlier today. If the Indians are to move a starter, there’s some sense behind making it the one of their “big three” who has the shortest amount of team control and least cost certainty, though there’s still no indication that the team is aggressively shopping any of its starters. The ask on Bauer would figure to be huge — likely including pre-arbitration, MLB-ready help — given Bauer’s 2.21 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.46 HR/9 and 44.5 percent grounder rate in 175 1/3 innings in 2018.

Some more notes on the trade and free-agent markets…

  • Mike Moustakas is “on the radar” for the Cardinals as they look for a corner infield bat, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. While Cards didn’t show much in the way of interest last winter, the absence of draft-pick compensation being attached to Moustakas is an important distinction that has them at least exploring the possibility this time around. Meanwhile, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the Cards “made a competitive bid” for Josh Donaldson before the 32-year-old signed a one-year, $23MM contract with the Braves. There were similar reports about the Cardinals’ efforts to sign Jason Heyward and David Price, and the Cardinals also came up shy in their pursuit of Giancarlo Stanton last year when the slugger wouldn’t waive his no-trade protection to approve a deal to St. Louis. Of course, Moustakas is not likely to generate the level of market interest that those players did.
  • There has been quite a lot of chatter regarding Mariners infielder Robinson Cano since it emerged recently that the club would like to find a way to dump his contract, though it’s far from evident whether there’s a particularly realistic match to be found. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand says that some feel the M’s will find a taker, though he later added that Cano hasn’t yet been approached by the team about waiving his no-trade rights or about giving a list of destinations as to which he’d be amenable. (Twitter links.) One key factor in the Cano situation is the notion of the Mariners dealing star closer Edwin Diaz as a means of offloading the money owed Cano. There is indeed some willingness to do so on the part of the Seattle organization, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. But it seems clubs with interest in Diaz aren’t necessarily amenable to taking on enough of the $120MM still owed to Cano to make it work. Sherman lists the Mets, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, and Red Sox as teams angling for Diaz, not all of which have any inclination to pick up Cano. That’s not surprising, as it’s an awfully steep dollar amount, even though the long-time star second baseman does still have value himself on the ballfield. That said, Diaz arguably could command something approaching that whopping sum in a hypothetical open-market scenario. After all, he stands out against any other potentially available relievers this winter for his excellence, age, and control. That makes this general structure at least somewhat plausible, though it’ll surely be quite complicated to pull something off.
  • It seems the Mets have quite a few balls in the air at the moment as new GM Brodie Van Wagenen searches for a significant deal that will help jumpstart the franchise. Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link) and Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter) each doused the flames of speculation involving the Mets as a possible match in a Cano swap. But that doesn’t mean the team didn’t explore the subject with the Mariners. SNY.tv’s Andy Martino suggested some possible scenarios involving Cano, though really the basic framework does not seem workable from the Seattle side. Martino says the clubs have batted around a concept in which Seattle would both pay about $50MM of Cano’s salary and take on more in return, such as through Jay Bruce’s $26MM contract, while sending Diaz or Mitch Haniger to New York. Trouble is, the implication there is that the Mets could buy one of those excellent young players for less than $50MM, which doesn’t seem like sufficient salary relief for the Mariners to justify the loss of such core talent.
  • Meanwhile, the biggest name seemingly in play on the Mets’ side is Noah Syndergaard, the uber-talented but health-questionable young righty. The Padres have made clear they won’t part with top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr., per Martino, which dovetails with expectations. While the report indicates that the teams have also discussed San Diego backstop Austin Hedges, he certainly does not profile as a centerpiece in a deal for Syndergaard. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription links) suggests the Rockies could be an under-the-radar suitor for Syndergaard, who’d turn their rotation into a potentially outstanding unit. Though the offense is surely the priority in Colorado, that can be addressed through relatively low-cost investments; adding Thor, meanwhile, is surely an intriguing thought.

Arbitration Breakdown: Trevor Bauer

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Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 arbitration projections are available right here.

Trevor Bauer enters his third year of arbitration following a career year, in which he had a 2.21 ERA and struck out 221 hitters in 175 1/3 innings. Although he only recorded 12 wins and started 27 games, Bauer is still projected for a sizable $5.075MM raise to propel him from $6.525MM in 2018 to $11.6MM in salary for the 2019 season.

Trevor Bauer

Bauer’s season is somewhat tricky in that his ERA is extremely low and quite rare for an arbitration-eligible pitcher in his service class. However, he also didn’t throw many innings compared to the few pitchers in this class who posted similarly low ERAs. Among pitchers in his service class over the past five years, Max Scherzer and Jeff Samardzija both had ERAs just below 3.00. However, with 214 1/3 and 219 2/3 innings, respectively, they had considerably larger workloads. Scherzer won 21 games en route to a Cy Young back in 2013, so that netted him a service-class record $8.8MM raise. Samardzija got a $4.46MM raise — lower than Bauer’s projected raise — but he also only won seven games back in 2014. As such, it makes sense that Bauer would be projected for a larger raise. Clayton Kershaw actually had an ERA of 1.83 going into his third year of arbitration, but he signed a multi-year deal and is probably not a relevant comp for that reason.

The most relevant may be Doug Fister in 2015, who had a 16-6 record (four more wins than Bauer at 12-6) and a 2.41 ERA (similar to Bauer’s 2.21). Importantly, Fister’s 164 innings from that season are only 11 1/3 fewer than Bauer threw in 2018. That was four years ago, and it was good for a $4.2MM raise. The big advantage that Bauer has over Fister is that he struck out more than twice as many hitters. Fister fanned a mere 98 batters, while Bauer recorded a third strike against a whopping 221 hitters. It seems like this should make Fister’s raise a floor, although the four fewer wins could prove important. Still, I think the $5.075MM raise my model projects for Bauer is a defensible one.

If we step away from ERA to find reasonable comparables other than Fister, we find a couple interesting starters who recently had 200-plus strikeouts in fewer than 200 innings. Tyson Ross got a $4.38MM raise in 2016 after a 10-12 season with a 3.26 ERA, in which he whiffed 212 men in 196 frames. Michael Pineda racked up 207 strikeouts in 175 2/3 innings the following season, though he only received a $3.1MM raise thanks to an ugly 6-12 record and decidedly sub-par 4.82 ERA. Ross is the more logical comp, but with Bauer producing an ERA a full run lower, he should land north of Ross’ raise.

Jake Arrieta is another somewhat interesting and relevant comp. Two years ago, the right-hander struck out 190 batters in 197 1/3 innings, with more wins (18) than Bauer but an inferior ERA (3.10). Arrieta received a $4.94MM raise.

Between Fister, Ross, and Arrieta, we have three starters who received raises between $4.2MM and $4.94MM when they were in this service class. All three fall short of Bauer in one category or another. With natural salary inflation, I think the model is probably in the right neighborhood for Bauer for his 2019 salary forecast.

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