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Rangers Designate Andrew Knizner For Assignment

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The Rangers announced that right-hander Tyler Mahle has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. In corresponding moves, the club optioned left-hander Walter Pennington and designated catcher Andrew Knizner for assignment.

Knizner, 29, signed with the Rangers in the offseason after being non-tendered by the Cardinals. Texas gave him a one-year deal with a $1.825MM salary, knowing that he could be retained via arbitration beyond this season as well.

Unfortunately, the club has been struggling to get much production from the catcher position this year. Jonah Heim hit .258/.317/.438 last year for a 103 wRC+ but he has dropped to a line of .232/.277/.346 and a 73 wRC+ this year. The falloff from Knizner has been even more drastic as he slashed .241/.288/.424 with the Cards last year for a 92 wRC+ but he is hitting .167/.183/.211 this year for a wRC+ of 4.

Perhaps some of that can be attributed to a .206 batting average on balls in play but Knizner has also drawn walks at a paltry 1.1% clip and hit just one home run in his 93 plate appearances, compared to the ten he hit in 241 trips to the plate last year. The Rangers fortified their catching corps by acquiring Carson Kelly from the Tigers prior to the deadline and then optioned Knizner to Triple-A, though he has now been bumped off the 40-man roster altogether.

With the trade deadline now passed, the Rangers will have to put Knizner on waivers in the coming days. Despite his rough season, he could perhaps garner interest based on his past performance and contract status.

He has one option left and therefore a claiming club wouldn’t need to give him an active roster spot right away, though he would be out of options next year in that scenario. He has not yet spent 20 days on optional assignment this year, so it’s possible he could retain that option next year if he either doesn’t get claimed or is kept in the majors by some other club. He also came into this season with four years and 21 days of service time, putting him just shy of the five-year mark at present. If any club felt especially bullish about Knizner’s future, they could claim him, keep him on optional assignment for the rest of the year and then control him via arbitration for two more years.

As for Mahle, he will be taking the mound for the first time in over a year. He required Tommy John surgery in May of last year, just a few months from free agency. The Rangers signed him to a two-year, $22MM deal with the knowledge that they would have to wait for his arrival.

With Mahle and Jacob deGrom both on their way back from surgeries last year, the club felt good enough about their rotation depth to deal Michael Lorenzen to the Royals prior to the deadline. But both Jon Gray and Max Scherzer recently landed on the IL, thinning the group out further. As of right now, the group consists of Mahle, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, José Ureña and Cody Bradford, with Dane Dunning in a long-relief role in the bullpen.

Rangers Place Max Scherzer On Injured List

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The Rangers announced that right-hander Max Scherzer has been placed on the 15-day injured list with right shoulder fatigue. Left-hander Walter Pennington was recalled in a corresponding move.

It’s been a challenging season for Scherzer, who just celebrated his 40th birthday last week. He underwent back surgery in the offseason and initially hoped to return some time in the middle to the end of May, but then he was delayed by some nerve irritation in his thumb and didn’t make his season debut until June 23.

He has since made eight starts for the club but questions surrounding his health popped up recently. He only lasted two innings on July 20 and later told the media he was experiencing arm fatigue, with Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News among those to relay the message along on X. He felt good enough to make his next start on July 25, tossing six innings against the White Sox. But on July 30, he only lasted four innings and 68 pitches against the Cardinals with manager Bruce Bochy relaying that arm fatigue was again present, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News on X.

All year long, it has seemed like the Rangers would have a rotation that would get gradually healthier over the course of the year. Scherzer was coming back from his back surgery while Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle were lined up to join the mix in the second half of the season after recovering from last year’s Tommy John surgery. The reigning World Series champions were hoping to ride a rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Michael Lorenzen, Dane Dunning and Cody Bradford until that trio returned.

That was sort of going according to plan when Scherzer returned back in June but has kind of gone off the rails since. Dunning was on the IL for most of July due to shoulder soreness and recently returned in a relief role. Bradford missed a few months due to a low back strain but, like Dunning, returned recently in a relief role. Gray hit the IL due to a groin strain last week. The club felt good enough about the rotation depth to trade Lorenzen to the Royals for Pennington prior to the deadline.

With Scherzer now out of the mix, the healthy rotation is down to Heaney and Eovaldi. Bochy says Mahle could be back and start on Tuesday, per McFarland on X. José Ureña has been oscillating between the rotation and bullpen this year and is starting tonight’s game. Tomorrow’s starter is still listed as TBD with Eovaldi scheduled for Sunday. Perhaps Dunning or Bradford will have to take the lead tomorrow as part of a bullpen game.

All together, it’s a less than ideal situation as they try to cobble a rotation together for the next few weeks. The club is 52-57 and eight games back in the Wild Card picture. Some struggles from the Mariners and Astros mean that the Rangers are only 4.5 games away from the West division lead but they would have to catch both clubs in order to nab that spot. Doing so with a patchwork rotation for the next weeks will be tricky. The trade deadline has now passed, limiting the options for finding external help.

It’s also less than ideal for Scherzer personally, as he is heading towards free agency at the end of this season. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post hinted on X tonight that the veteran righty is uncertain how much longer he can keep pushing his body to its limits. Perhaps he would consider retiring after this season, which would be understandable given his age and this mounting ailments. But he also has a reputation as a fierce competitor so it’s anybody’s guess as to when he’ll decide to hang up his cleats. In either case, he’ll undoubtedly be doing everything he can to get over his arm issues and find a way back on the mound in the coming months.

Latest On Rangers’ Rotation, Trade Possibilities

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The Rangers have patched together their rotation for much of the season as they anticipate the returns of veterans Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom. Scherzer has already returned. Mahle is set to make his fifth minor league rehab start today and should make his Rangers debut before long. It’ll be a bit longer before deGrom makes it back, but he tossed a 40-pitch bullpen just yesterday, per Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com. Left-hander Cody Bradford is on a minor league rehab assignment and expected to return soon, though Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that he’ll work out of the bullpen upon his return. Texas reinstated righty Dane Dunning from the injured list earlier today, too. He’s in the ’pen for now but could move back to a starting role depending on how the next week goes.

What once was a starting pitching hodgepodge looks increasingly enviable. If Mahle is cleared to return after today’s start, he’ll join Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney and Dunning as viable rotation options, with Bradford in the bullpen and deGrom looming on the horizon. That’s nine MLB-caliber starters, to say nothing of veteran starter Jose Ureña (who started six games but is in the bullpen presently).

With so many options suddenly at their fingertips, there’s been plenty of speculation about the Rangers trading from that stockpile of arms — even as they narrow the deficit in the postseason hunt. Texas has won four straight games. The Mariners have lost three straight. The Rangers now sit only three games back of the first-place Astros in the West and are just 5.5 games out in the Wild Card hunt. They’re not going to operate as a pure seller, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests that Lorenzen or perhaps even Gray could be moved before Tuesday’s trade deadline.

Lorenzen, 32, signed with the Rangers on a one-year, $4.5MM deal in spring training. It was a bargain price for a veteran righty coming off a solid season, and he’s proven to be well worth the investment. He’s pitched 97 innings over the course of 17 starts and turned in a 3.53 ERA. Lorenzen’s 18.5% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate both leave plenty to be desired and point to some likely ERA regression, but he’s been precisely the type of veteran rotation stabilizer the Rangers hoped to be acquiring when signing him.

As of deadline day, Lorenzen will have just $1.5MM of that base salary yet to be paid out. He’s already picked up $800K of innings-based incentives and will get another $200K when he reaches 100 innings, likely in his next start. Assuming that comes with the Rangers — he’s their probable starter Saturday — a new team would be on the hook for the remaining portion of his base and additional incentives he’d unlock by reaching 120 innings ($300K), 140 innings ($350K), 160 innings ($400K) and 180 innings ($450K). He’s on pace to barely reach that final milestone.

At most, a team adding Lorenzen would pay around $1.5MM in base salary and an additional $1.5MM worth of incentives. If Lorenzen is pitching well enough to reach that 180-inning mark, it’d be considered money well spent. If nothing else, a budget-conscious team looking to add a stable starter (e.g. Twins, Guardians) could view Lorenzen as an affordable option.

Gray would be a more surprising trade candidate. He’s in the third season of a four-year, $56MM contract that’s paying $13MM both this year and next. Thus far, he’s posted 94 innings of 3.73 ERA ball on the season. While Gray’s 19.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career (aside from the shortened 2020 season), his 5.8% walk rate is a career-best mark. He’s still averaging 95 mph with his heater, while his opponents’ chase rate and swinging-strike rate are roughly in line with his 2022-23 marks.

Rosenthal also cites a pair of names the Rangers would prefer to hang onto even as they ponder trading from their rotation depth: Eovaldi and Heaney. The former is well on his way to vesting a $20MM player option for the 2025 season. That option would decrease his trade value — a new team would be stuck with the $20MM in the event of a major, post-trade injury. Beyond that, Eovaldi has been one of the team’s best arms this season, notching a 3.31 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate in 106 innings. He’d likely be ticketed for their playoff rotation, should they get there. And, even if they don’t, the Rangers might simply hope Eovaldi stays healthy and enjoys pitching in his home state enough that he’d pick up that player option for the 2025 season.

As for Heaney, he’s turned things around after a shaky first season in Texas. The veteran southpaw boasts a 3.60 ERA, 23.5% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate in exactly 100 innings. He’s a free agent at season’s end, so one would imagine he’s an on-paper trade candidate in this scenario where Texas deals from its excess. However, the Rangers don’t have an established left-hander in their bullpen. Brock Burke was excellent in 2022 but took a step back in ’23 and was optioned earlier this season after being shelled through 9 2/3 innings. Rookie Jacob Latz has a solid 3.68 ERA in 36 2/3 innings, but he’s walked 13.5% of his opponents. Bradford could possibly fill that role, but he’s yet to return from a stress reaction in his ribcage.

Heaney has experience pitching both as a starter and reliever, including during his time with Texas. He’s throwing well right now but would likely be pushed out of a theoretical postseason rotation. In that setting, he could slide into the bullpen and match up against tough lefties and/or provide multiple innings in long relief.

Tyler Mahle Begins Rehab Stint

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Tyler Mahle saw his first official game action as a member of the Ranger organization tonight. Texas assigned the offseason signee to Triple-A Round Rock to begin a rehab assignment. Mahle threw two scoreless innings on 19 pitches in his first appearance since he underwent Tommy John surgery last May.

Texas inked the righty to a two-year, $22MM guarantee in December. Mahle is making $5.5MM this year and is due a $16.5MM salary for next season. The backloaded term reflected the fact that Mahle would miss the first few months of the 2023 season. His recovery process has gone smoothly thus far, opening the possibility he could make it to Globe Life Field not long after the July 30 trade deadline.

Mahle looked to be coming into his own as a mid-rotation starter in Cincinnati a few seasons ago. Between 2021 and the ’22 trade deadline, he turned in a 3.99 ERA over 52 starts. Mahle fanned 27% of opposing hitters against a solid 8.6% walk rate over that stretch. Despite pitching in a difficult home environment, he looked the part of a #3 starter. The Twins bought into that impressive form, sending Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Steer and Steve Hajjar to the Reds for the final year and a half of Mahle’s arbitration control.

That proved one of the more regrettable deadline deals in recent history. Injuries essentially derailed Mahle’s tenure in Minnesota from the beginning. Shoulder issues limited him to four starts down the stretch in ’22. Mahle looked to be in good form at the start of the next season. He carried a 3.16 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate over five starts before his elbow gave out. The surgery marked a sour end to the impending free agent’s time in the Twin Cities.

If Mahle can rediscover the form he showed before the injuries, he’d be a major boost to the Texas rotation. The Rangers had hoped to stay afloat in the first half before welcoming back Max Scherzer, Mahle, and eventually Jacob deGrom from the injured list. They haven’t performed at the level they were expecting. They’re still seven games below .500 after tonight’s shutout victory over the Padres. Texas is seven and a half games back of the division-leading Mariners and for the final Wild Card spot held by the Royals.

While the defending champions have clearly underperformed, that’s not so much about their injury-riddled rotation. The starting pitching has held up about as well as the front office could have anticipated. The far bigger issue has been a lineup where only Josh Smith has played above preseason expectations. Corey Seager and Rookie of the Year favorite Wyatt Langford have picked things up after slow starts, but the overall offense hasn’t been good enough.

The Rangers have a few more weeks to clarify their deadline trajectory. Mahle himself will not be a trade candidate, but Texas has a number of impending free agents they could consider moving if they don’t turn things around quickly. If the Rangers play their way within a few games of a postseason spot, upgrading the bullpen and deepening the outfield could be priorities.

Rangers Notes: Seager, Mahle, Rocker

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Rangers fans were dealt a major injury scare last night when star shortstop Corey Seager went down after being struck on the wrist by a pitch from Orioles lefty Cade Povich. Seager immediately exited the game but fortunately Rangers manager Bruce Bochy confirmed to reporters last night that initial x-rays came back negative. That indicated that the runner-up for the 2023 AL MVP award seemingly had avoided a worst case scenario, though the Rangers still planned to evaluate him further today.

Said evaluation could have been more encouraging. As noted by Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News earlier today, Bochy told reporters prior to today’s game against Baltimore that Seager was still feeling “pretty sore” and that the club is planning to have him undergo an MRI exam tomorrow when the club returns home to Texas. Even if the MRI comes back clean, however, Bochy admitted that Seager is going to be out for at least “the next couple of days” even in an absolute best case scenario.

The Rangers called up infielder Jonathan Ornelas prior to tonight’s game to serve as an extra infield option while Seager nurses his injury, but the 24-year-old youngster has just nine plate appearances to his name at the big league level and a lackluster 66 wRC+ at the Triple-A level this year. That leaves him unlikely to impact the club on more than an emergency basis, and if Seager were to go on the injured list the club would likely call up utility bat Ezequiel Duran to fill in on the infield instead. It’s possible Duran would’ve been recalled instead of Ornelas if not for Duran being optioned to the minors just last week, meaning he can’t return to the big leagues for ten days unless replacing a player headed to the IL.

While the news regarded Seager certainly could be better, Rangers fans have also received positive news regarding the status of a handful of rehabbing pitchers in recent days. As noted by Grant, right-hander Tyler Mahle threw a bullpen yesterday and is slated to begin a rehab assignment next week as he makes his way back from Tommy John surgery. Mahle went under the knife on the same day as top pitching prospect Kumar Rocker, who will start a rehab assignment of his own in rookie ball sometime next week. According to Grant, Bochy indicated that both Mahle and Rocker are essentially going to be on the schedule of a starter ramping up during Spring Training, meaning that Mahle could be an option to join the Rangers rotation sometime after the All Star break.

Mahle signed with the Rangers on a two-year deal this past offseason while rehabbing the aforementioned Tommy John surgery and has long appeared ticketed for a return at some point in the season half of this year. The 29-year-old has generally been a solid mid-to-back of the rotation arm when healthy enough to take the mound, with a 3.90 ERA (117 ERA+) and 3.86 FIP across 374 innings of work while striking out a solid 21.7% of batters since the start of the 2020 season. Health has been the primary question regarding Mahle in the recent years of his career, as he’s only made it to 30 starts once (a 33-start campaign in 2021) in his eight years as a big leaguer. Should he stay healthy enough to contribute, Mahle figures to provide the Rangers additional rotation depth behind their current group of Max Scherzer, Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Michael Lorenzen.

As for Rocker, the right-hander was among the best-regarded prospects in both the 2021 and 2022 drafts. He was selected 10th overall out of Vanderbilt in the 2021 draft by the Mets but ended up not signing over concerns regarding his elbow, leading the Rangers to pick him third overall the following year. Rocker posted a solid 3.86 ERA in six starts with the Rangers at the High-A level last year before going under the knife back in May, striking out a fantastic 37.9% of batters faced at the level. Now 24, Rocker figures to resume his ascent up the minor league ladder upon his return to action. While it seems unlikely that he would factor into the club’s plans at the big league level this year given his lack of pro experience, it’s easy to imagine the righty debuting in the majors as soon as next season if he sports the same high-octane stuff he flashed in the minors and the SEC prior to his surgery.

Rangers Notes: Carter, Mahle, Bradford, Foscue

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The Rangers placed Evan Carter on the injured list last week, initially announcing the issue as back tightness. Manager Bruce Bochy provided more specifics yesterday, telling reporters (including Kennedi Landry of MLB.com) that the rookie left fielder is dealing with a stress reaction. Texas expects Carter to miss upwards of a month.

It has been a challenging first full MLB season for Carter. The 21-year-old top prospect debuted late in 2023 and immediately cemented himself as a key piece of the franchise’s first World Series run. Carter hit .300/.417/.500 in 17 postseason games, making him a popular Rookie of the Year pick in 2024. He has had a much tougher go through this season’s first couple months, running a .188/.272/.361 line with a 26.5% strikeout rate over 162 plate appearances.

Carter admitted he played through back discomfort for a couple weeks before the IL placement. That certainly could’ve played a role in his middling offense. He remains an integral piece of the Rangers’ plans for this season and beyond, but he’ll be down for a few weeks. Wyatt Langford has stepped into left field, opening some DH at-bats for Robbie Grossman and Ezequiel Duran.

Texas received better news on a few other injured players this week. Offseason signee Tyler Mahle threw to hitters on Wednesday for the first time in his recovery from Tommy John surgery (link via Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News). Mahle is ticketed for three more live sessions before he could head on a minor league rehab stint. If all goes smoothly, he should be on track for his Rangers debut a couple weeks after the All-Star Break.

Mahle is around 13 months removed from the elbow procedure that ended his tenure with the Twins. The right-hander was barely able to pitch for Minnesota. He was a mid-rotation starter with the Reds before that, pitching 180 innings of 3.75 ERA ball while striking out more than 27% of opponents three years ago. The Rangers guaranteed him $22MM on a backloaded two-year deal in December.

Texas has a full rotation on the injured list. Jon Gray has had a fairly brief stint related to a groin strain, but the other four pitchers have faced long recovery timelines. Mahle, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom are still rehabbing from 2023 surgeries. Cody Bradford has been out since mid-April with a stress fracture in his rib. The southpaw told reporters that he has progressed to throwing from 120 feet on flat ground (X link via Landry). Bradford opened the season as the fifth starter and turned in a 1.40 ERA over 19 1/3 innings in three appearances before the injury.

On the position player side, Texas has been without rookie infielder Justin Foscue for nearly the entire season. The Rangers called up the former first-round draftee on April 2. He took two plate appearances before sustaining a left oblique strain that pushed him to the 60-day injured list. Foscue will be eligible for reinstatement in the next few days and seems to be on track for a return. Texas assigned him to the Arizona complex league to begin a rehab assignment tonight. The Rangers might not have an immediate MLB roster spot for Foscue, as Josh Smith has played very well at third base while Josh Jung has been on the shelf.

Rangers Notes: Scherzer, Mahle, Rocker, Church

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Right-hander Max Scherzer has made one rehab start already and was slated for a second one but will be delayed a few days after experiencing some soreness in his right thumb, GM Chris Young told the Rangers beat last night (X link via Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). They’re hopeful he can make his next start this week.

The 39-year-old Scherzer has spent the entire season to date on the 15-day injured list while he mends from offseason back surgery. He was excellent in eight starts down the stretch last year, pitching to a 3.20 ERA with a 29.9% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate following the trade that sent him from the Mets to Texas. The original thought was that Scherzer would be sidelined into June, but the Rangers held off on placing the three-time Cy Young winner on the 60-day injured list with his recovery ahead of schedule. There’s no indication that his back is providing any problems, so assuming the thumb injury proves minor, a mid-May return still feels viable.

Texas currently ranks 14th in the majors with a 3.87 ERA from the rotation. That’s thanks largely to strong showings from Nathan Eovaldi, Dane Dunning and Jon Gray — each of whom has made six starts. Left-hander Cody Bradford impressed early but has since gone on the injured list with a stress fracture in his rib. Veteran Andrew Heaney has struggled in five starts, and rookie Jack Leiter was hit hard in his big league debut. Right-hander Michael Lorenzen, who signed a late-spring one-year deal, has helped solidify things through his first three starts — but a return from Scherzer would be a substantial boon to the staff, of course.

Scherzer is just one of three veteran starters on the mend for Texas. Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle are both expected back later in the season. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News provides an update on Mahle’s rehab from Tommy John surgery, noting that he and Rangers prospect Kumar Rocker not only coincidentally had their Tommy John procedures performed on the same day last year but performed by the same surgeon: Dr. Keith Meister. Rocker has begun throwing all of his pitches off a mound, while Mahle is also pitching off a mound and will join his teammates on their upcoming road trip. Mahle and Rocker aren’t yet to the point where they’re facing live hitters, but each is progressing well through the rehab process.

Things aren’t going quite so well for pitching prospect Marc Church. Young revealed yesterday that the right-hander has been diagnosed with a strained rotator cuff and will be sidelined for a yet-to-be-determined period as a result of that shoulder issue (X link via Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com).

Church, 23, was the team’s 18th-round pick back in 2019 — signing for an over-slot $300K bonus — and has emerged as a prospect of note in the Rangers’ system, ranking 22nd at MLB.com. Church has missed bats in bunches throughout his minor league tenure, fanning 34.7% of his total opponents. A former high school shortstop who didn’t begin pitching until his senior year, he draws praise for his athleticism and could yet have some untapped upside as he’s still relatively new to pitching. MLB.com’s report on him notes that he has a pair of plus-plus (70-grade) offerings when his heater and slider are at their best but lacks consistency.

Church has also begun to encounter some command troubles in the upper minors. He split last season between Double-A and Triple-A, walking a combined 14% of his opponents. He also fanned just shy of 30% of batters faced, however. Church opened the current season with a solid 4 2/3 innings out of the ’pen before going down with his current injury. He’s already on the 40-man roster and stands as a candidate to make his big league debut in 2024, particularly after a strong spring showing: 10 2/3 innings, five hits, three runs, five walks, 14 strikeouts. If Church is able to get back on the mound without a long-term absence, he could still find his way to the big leagues this season, but it’s not entirely clear how feasible that is in light of this setback. The Rangers will presumably have more updates on the promising young righty in the weeks to come.

Rangers Place Tyler Mahle On 60-Day Injured List

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The Rangers announced today that right-hander Tyler Mahle has been placed on the 60-day injured list. Combined with yesterday’s outright of infielder José Barrero, the club opened two spots to select the contracts of right-hander José Ureña and first baseman Jared Walsh, moves which were previously reported.

Mahle, 29, underwent Tommy John surgery in May while with the Twins. He reached free agency after last year and signed with the Rangers, a two-year deal with a $22MM guarantee, with the club knowing they weren’t going to get any contributions from Mahle in the first few months of that deal. He’ll join Jacob deGrom, who is also rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, on the 60-day IL as both pitchers look to come back later in the year.

Notably, right-hander Max Scherzer has been placed on the 15-day IL but has not been placed on the 60-day IL and it doesn’t seem like he will, at least for now. He underwent back surgery in December and it was announced at that time that he would probably be sidelined into June or July. However, more recent developments have suggested he may be able to beat that timeline, with manager Bruce Bochy suggesting a few weeks back that Scherzer was ahead of schedule.

“My guess is we do not do that,” general manager Chris Young said about the matter yesterday, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. Today, Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News relays that Scherzer threw a bullpen and characterized himself as “early February,” suggesting he’s perhaps about six weeks behind schedule.

Placing Scherzer on the 60-day injured list, whether it’s now or later, would mean he’s ineligible to be activated until late May. It seems like he may be able to return somewhere in that vicinity, so the Rangers are leaving that option open for now. If the timeline changes in the weeks to come, they could transfer him to the 60-day IL at that point and it will be backdated to his recent placement on the 15-day IL. In other words, even if he gets transferred to the 60-day IL a month from now, he could still be reinstated in late May.

The Rangers’ rotation will likely change a lot over the course of the year. They will start the season with Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Cody Bradford but reinforcements will be coming throughout the year. Michael Lorenzen was recently signed but he’ll need a few weeks to build up into game readiness. It sounds like Scherzer won’t be far behind him with Mahle and deGrom to follow as the season progresses.

Injury Notes: Scherzer, Donovan, Lodolo, Chang

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Max Scherzer is one of a trio of key Rangers starters who’ll open the season on the injured list. The three-time Cy Young winner underwent surgery in mid-December to repair a disc herniation in his back. The team announced at the time that the injury would keep him out of action into June or July.

It appears things are going well in the early stages of Scherzer’s rehab process. Manager Bruce Bochy told MLB Network this week the team envisions the star righty being back on an MLB mound by June (X link). The veteran skipper said that’s “a little bit earlier” than the team initially expected. Bochy indicated the club was shooting for a July return for offseason signee Tyler Mahle and a potential August timetable on Jacob deGrom, both of whom are working back from Tommy John procedures.

A few other health notes around the league:

  • Brendan Donovan is preparing for a rebound after his 2023 season was cut short. An injury to his throwing arm initially required the Cardinals infielder to move to designated hitter. With the team out of contention by the trade deadline, Donovan shut things down and underwent season-ending surgery. While that was initially reported as a flexor tendon repair in his forearm, Donovan clarified to John Denton of MLB.com that he actually had an internal brace procedure to fix the UCL in his elbow (on X). The 27-year-old is back in action this spring and should split most of his time with Nolan Gorman between second base and DH.
  • Reds starter Nick Lodolo was limited to seven appearances in 2023 because of a stress reaction in his left tibia. That bothersome issue kept him out of action from mid-May on. The southpaw apparently isn’t quite at 100%. Lodolo has yet to make his Spring Training debut because of residual leg discomfort on days after his bullpen or live batting practice sessions, manager David Bell told reporters (link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The Reds are sending Lodolo for additional testing on the bone before deciding on the next step in his build-up process. That’s at least somewhat alarming, although Bell said the team is still hopeful that Lodolo will avoid opening the season on the injured list.
  • The Rays lost one of their depth infielders to what’ll be a fairly significant injury. Yu Chang will be out six to eight weeks after suffering an oblique strain, manager Kevin Cash told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (relayed on X). That was the concern when the team revealed that Chang was dealing with left side soreness earlier in the week. The defensive specialist is in camp on a minor league contract. He had a shot at securing an Opening Day bench spot, particularly with Taylor Walls opening the season on the IL, but that’s no longer in play. The Rays have declared José Caballero their expected starter at shortstop. Recent free agent pickup Amed Rosario is on hand as a multi-positional option who’d likely be Caballero’s primary backup.

Rangers Sign Tyler Mahle To Two-Year Deal

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The Rangers have taken another upside shot in the rotation, signing Tyler Mahle to a two-year contract. It’s reportedly a $22MM guarantee for the ISE Baseball client, who can earn up to $5MM more in bonuses depending on his 2025 innings tally. He will have a salary of $5.5MM in 2024 and $16.5MM in 2025, and the deal comes with a limited no-trade clause. He’ll miss the start of the ’24 season as he completes his rehab from last season’s Tommy John surgery. Texas has two additional openings on the 40-man roster.

Mahle spent a season and a half with the Twins. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds at the 2022 trade deadline. It turned out to be one of the more lopsided deadline deals of the past couple summers. Cincinnati acquired Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and prospect Steve Hajjar, whom they subsequently flipped to the Guardians as part of a deal for Will Benson.

Unfortunately for Minnesota, injuries ruined their end of the deal. Mahle landed on the injured list within a few weeks of his acquisition as a result of shoulder inflammation. He returned, pitched once, then went back on the IL for the remainder of the season. Mahle looked back to form early in 2023, working to a 3.16 ERA over five starts. He suffered an elbow injury during his outing on April 27 and underwent the Tommy John procedure a couple weeks later.

That ended his season and ultimately, his tenure with the Twins. Given the approximate 14-month recovery timeline often associated with TJS rehab, he could return sometime around the All-Star Break. That would put Mahle on a similar trajectory as Jacob deGrom, who underwent the same surgery around four weeks later.

While Mahle wouldn’t bring the same level of upside as deGrom, he’d be a high-ceiling addition in his own right. The 29-year-old developed into a quality mid-rotation starter late in his time in Cincinnati. Between 2020 and the ’22 deadline, he worked to a 3.93 ERA in 332 innings spanning 62 appearances. Mahle punched out an above-average 27.4% of batters faced over that stretch against a manageable 8.9% walk rate. Despite pitching in a difficult home park, he allowed only 1.1 home runs per nine innings.

Mahle’s velocity has been down a bit over the past two seasons, which isn’t surprising given the arm issues. In 2021, he averaged 94 MPH on his four-seam with a plus cutter/slider that sat around 87 MPH. Mahle has a splitter to deploy against left-handed hitters and has posted neutral platoon numbers over his career.

If he can recapture his pre-surgery form, Mahle would fit into the middle or back end of a quality Texas rotation. The Rangers haven’t been shy about taking on injury risk to pursue high-upside starters. deGrom was the prime example, of course, but each of Mahle, Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney were talented fliers in the middle tiers of the starting pitching market.

Max Scherzer anchors the season-opening staff. Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney and Dane Dunning project to fill out the remainder of the Opening Day five. Texas should have more clarity on the respective health statuses of deGrom and Mahle as next summer’s trade deadline approaches.

Mahle’s contract narrowly tops MLBTR’s two-year, $20MM prediction. It’s just north of the $20MM guarantee secured by Rockies right-hander Germán Márquez, a similar caliber of pitcher who signed for two years after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May. Mahle, who turned 29 in September, is on track to get back to free agency in advance of his age-31 season in 2026.

The $11MM average annual value brings the Rangers’ competitive balance tax number to roughly $232MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s just below next season’s $237MM base threshold. Texas carried an approximate $252MM luxury tax number last season. While their championship run surely brought in a fair amount of playoff revenue, the organization is also facing some uncertainty about its local television rights contract. GM Chris Young indicated at the Winter Meetings that the team would be a little quieter in free agency than they’d been in the past few offseasons.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the $22MM guarantee and $5MM in performance bonuses. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the specific annual breakdown and limited no-trade.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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