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Tyler Mahle

Tyler Mahle Begins Rehab Stint

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Tyler Mahle saw his first official game action as a member of the Ranger organization tonight. Texas assigned the offseason signee to Triple-A Round Rock to begin a rehab assignment. Mahle threw two scoreless innings on 19 pitches in his first appearance since he underwent Tommy John surgery last May.

Texas inked the righty to a two-year, $22MM guarantee in December. Mahle is making $5.5MM this year and is due a $16.5MM salary for next season. The backloaded term reflected the fact that Mahle would miss the first few months of the 2023 season. His recovery process has gone smoothly thus far, opening the possibility he could make it to Globe Life Field not long after the July 30 trade deadline.

Mahle looked to be coming into his own as a mid-rotation starter in Cincinnati a few seasons ago. Between 2021 and the ’22 trade deadline, he turned in a 3.99 ERA over 52 starts. Mahle fanned 27% of opposing hitters against a solid 8.6% walk rate over that stretch. Despite pitching in a difficult home environment, he looked the part of a #3 starter. The Twins bought into that impressive form, sending Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Steer and Steve Hajjar to the Reds for the final year and a half of Mahle’s arbitration control.

That proved one of the more regrettable deadline deals in recent history. Injuries essentially derailed Mahle’s tenure in Minnesota from the beginning. Shoulder issues limited him to four starts down the stretch in ’22. Mahle looked to be in good form at the start of the next season. He carried a 3.16 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate over five starts before his elbow gave out. The surgery marked a sour end to the impending free agent’s time in the Twin Cities.

If Mahle can rediscover the form he showed before the injuries, he’d be a major boost to the Texas rotation. The Rangers had hoped to stay afloat in the first half before welcoming back Max Scherzer, Mahle, and eventually Jacob deGrom from the injured list. They haven’t performed at the level they were expecting. They’re still seven games below .500 after tonight’s shutout victory over the Padres. Texas is seven and a half games back of the division-leading Mariners and for the final Wild Card spot held by the Royals.

While the defending champions have clearly underperformed, that’s not so much about their injury-riddled rotation. The starting pitching has held up about as well as the front office could have anticipated. The far bigger issue has been a lineup where only Josh Smith has played above preseason expectations. Corey Seager and Rookie of the Year favorite Wyatt Langford have picked things up after slow starts, but the overall offense hasn’t been good enough.

The Rangers have a few more weeks to clarify their deadline trajectory. Mahle himself will not be a trade candidate, but Texas has a number of impending free agents they could consider moving if they don’t turn things around quickly. If the Rangers play their way within a few games of a postseason spot, upgrading the bullpen and deepening the outfield could be priorities.

Rangers Notes: Seager, Mahle, Rocker

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Rangers fans were dealt a major injury scare last night when star shortstop Corey Seager went down after being struck on the wrist by a pitch from Orioles lefty Cade Povich. Seager immediately exited the game but fortunately Rangers manager Bruce Bochy confirmed to reporters last night that initial x-rays came back negative. That indicated that the runner-up for the 2023 AL MVP award seemingly had avoided a worst case scenario, though the Rangers still planned to evaluate him further today.

Said evaluation could have been more encouraging. As noted by Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News earlier today, Bochy told reporters prior to today’s game against Baltimore that Seager was still feeling “pretty sore” and that the club is planning to have him undergo an MRI exam tomorrow when the club returns home to Texas. Even if the MRI comes back clean, however, Bochy admitted that Seager is going to be out for at least “the next couple of days” even in an absolute best case scenario.

The Rangers called up infielder Jonathan Ornelas prior to tonight’s game to serve as an extra infield option while Seager nurses his injury, but the 24-year-old youngster has just nine plate appearances to his name at the big league level and a lackluster 66 wRC+ at the Triple-A level this year. That leaves him unlikely to impact the club on more than an emergency basis, and if Seager were to go on the injured list the club would likely call up utility bat Ezequiel Duran to fill in on the infield instead. It’s possible Duran would’ve been recalled instead of Ornelas if not for Duran being optioned to the minors just last week, meaning he can’t return to the big leagues for ten days unless replacing a player headed to the IL.

While the news regarded Seager certainly could be better, Rangers fans have also received positive news regarding the status of a handful of rehabbing pitchers in recent days. As noted by Grant, right-hander Tyler Mahle threw a bullpen yesterday and is slated to begin a rehab assignment next week as he makes his way back from Tommy John surgery. Mahle went under the knife on the same day as top pitching prospect Kumar Rocker, who will start a rehab assignment of his own in rookie ball sometime next week. According to Grant, Bochy indicated that both Mahle and Rocker are essentially going to be on the schedule of a starter ramping up during Spring Training, meaning that Mahle could be an option to join the Rangers rotation sometime after the All Star break.

Mahle signed with the Rangers on a two-year deal this past offseason while rehabbing the aforementioned Tommy John surgery and has long appeared ticketed for a return at some point in the season half of this year. The 29-year-old has generally been a solid mid-to-back of the rotation arm when healthy enough to take the mound, with a 3.90 ERA (117 ERA+) and 3.86 FIP across 374 innings of work while striking out a solid 21.7% of batters since the start of the 2020 season. Health has been the primary question regarding Mahle in the recent years of his career, as he’s only made it to 30 starts once (a 33-start campaign in 2021) in his eight years as a big leaguer. Should he stay healthy enough to contribute, Mahle figures to provide the Rangers additional rotation depth behind their current group of Max Scherzer, Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Michael Lorenzen.

As for Rocker, the right-hander was among the best-regarded prospects in both the 2021 and 2022 drafts. He was selected 10th overall out of Vanderbilt in the 2021 draft by the Mets but ended up not signing over concerns regarding his elbow, leading the Rangers to pick him third overall the following year. Rocker posted a solid 3.86 ERA in six starts with the Rangers at the High-A level last year before going under the knife back in May, striking out a fantastic 37.9% of batters faced at the level. Now 24, Rocker figures to resume his ascent up the minor league ladder upon his return to action. While it seems unlikely that he would factor into the club’s plans at the big league level this year given his lack of pro experience, it’s easy to imagine the righty debuting in the majors as soon as next season if he sports the same high-octane stuff he flashed in the minors and the SEC prior to his surgery.

Rangers Notes: Carter, Mahle, Bradford, Foscue

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The Rangers placed Evan Carter on the injured list last week, initially announcing the issue as back tightness. Manager Bruce Bochy provided more specifics yesterday, telling reporters (including Kennedi Landry of MLB.com) that the rookie left fielder is dealing with a stress reaction. Texas expects Carter to miss upwards of a month.

It has been a challenging first full MLB season for Carter. The 21-year-old top prospect debuted late in 2023 and immediately cemented himself as a key piece of the franchise’s first World Series run. Carter hit .300/.417/.500 in 17 postseason games, making him a popular Rookie of the Year pick in 2024. He has had a much tougher go through this season’s first couple months, running a .188/.272/.361 line with a 26.5% strikeout rate over 162 plate appearances.

Carter admitted he played through back discomfort for a couple weeks before the IL placement. That certainly could’ve played a role in his middling offense. He remains an integral piece of the Rangers’ plans for this season and beyond, but he’ll be down for a few weeks. Wyatt Langford has stepped into left field, opening some DH at-bats for Robbie Grossman and Ezequiel Duran.

Texas received better news on a few other injured players this week. Offseason signee Tyler Mahle threw to hitters on Wednesday for the first time in his recovery from Tommy John surgery (link via Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News). Mahle is ticketed for three more live sessions before he could head on a minor league rehab stint. If all goes smoothly, he should be on track for his Rangers debut a couple weeks after the All-Star Break.

Mahle is around 13 months removed from the elbow procedure that ended his tenure with the Twins. The right-hander was barely able to pitch for Minnesota. He was a mid-rotation starter with the Reds before that, pitching 180 innings of 3.75 ERA ball while striking out more than 27% of opponents three years ago. The Rangers guaranteed him $22MM on a backloaded two-year deal in December.

Texas has a full rotation on the injured list. Jon Gray has had a fairly brief stint related to a groin strain, but the other four pitchers have faced long recovery timelines. Mahle, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom are still rehabbing from 2023 surgeries. Cody Bradford has been out since mid-April with a stress fracture in his rib. The southpaw told reporters that he has progressed to throwing from 120 feet on flat ground (X link via Landry). Bradford opened the season as the fifth starter and turned in a 1.40 ERA over 19 1/3 innings in three appearances before the injury.

On the position player side, Texas has been without rookie infielder Justin Foscue for nearly the entire season. The Rangers called up the former first-round draftee on April 2. He took two plate appearances before sustaining a left oblique strain that pushed him to the 60-day injured list. Foscue will be eligible for reinstatement in the next few days and seems to be on track for a return. Texas assigned him to the Arizona complex league to begin a rehab assignment tonight. The Rangers might not have an immediate MLB roster spot for Foscue, as Josh Smith has played very well at third base while Josh Jung has been on the shelf.

Rangers Notes: Scherzer, Mahle, Rocker, Church

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Right-hander Max Scherzer has made one rehab start already and was slated for a second one but will be delayed a few days after experiencing some soreness in his right thumb, GM Chris Young told the Rangers beat last night (X link via Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). They’re hopeful he can make his next start this week.

The 39-year-old Scherzer has spent the entire season to date on the 15-day injured list while he mends from offseason back surgery. He was excellent in eight starts down the stretch last year, pitching to a 3.20 ERA with a 29.9% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate following the trade that sent him from the Mets to Texas. The original thought was that Scherzer would be sidelined into June, but the Rangers held off on placing the three-time Cy Young winner on the 60-day injured list with his recovery ahead of schedule. There’s no indication that his back is providing any problems, so assuming the thumb injury proves minor, a mid-May return still feels viable.

Texas currently ranks 14th in the majors with a 3.87 ERA from the rotation. That’s thanks largely to strong showings from Nathan Eovaldi, Dane Dunning and Jon Gray — each of whom has made six starts. Left-hander Cody Bradford impressed early but has since gone on the injured list with a stress fracture in his rib. Veteran Andrew Heaney has struggled in five starts, and rookie Jack Leiter was hit hard in his big league debut. Right-hander Michael Lorenzen, who signed a late-spring one-year deal, has helped solidify things through his first three starts — but a return from Scherzer would be a substantial boon to the staff, of course.

Scherzer is just one of three veteran starters on the mend for Texas. Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle are both expected back later in the season. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News provides an update on Mahle’s rehab from Tommy John surgery, noting that he and Rangers prospect Kumar Rocker not only coincidentally had their Tommy John procedures performed on the same day last year but performed by the same surgeon: Dr. Keith Meister. Rocker has begun throwing all of his pitches off a mound, while Mahle is also pitching off a mound and will join his teammates on their upcoming road trip. Mahle and Rocker aren’t yet to the point where they’re facing live hitters, but each is progressing well through the rehab process.

Things aren’t going quite so well for pitching prospect Marc Church. Young revealed yesterday that the right-hander has been diagnosed with a strained rotator cuff and will be sidelined for a yet-to-be-determined period as a result of that shoulder issue (X link via Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com).

Church, 23, was the team’s 18th-round pick back in 2019 — signing for an over-slot $300K bonus — and has emerged as a prospect of note in the Rangers’ system, ranking 22nd at MLB.com. Church has missed bats in bunches throughout his minor league tenure, fanning 34.7% of his total opponents. A former high school shortstop who didn’t begin pitching until his senior year, he draws praise for his athleticism and could yet have some untapped upside as he’s still relatively new to pitching. MLB.com’s report on him notes that he has a pair of plus-plus (70-grade) offerings when his heater and slider are at their best but lacks consistency.

Church has also begun to encounter some command troubles in the upper minors. He split last season between Double-A and Triple-A, walking a combined 14% of his opponents. He also fanned just shy of 30% of batters faced, however. Church opened the current season with a solid 4 2/3 innings out of the ’pen before going down with his current injury. He’s already on the 40-man roster and stands as a candidate to make his big league debut in 2024, particularly after a strong spring showing: 10 2/3 innings, five hits, three runs, five walks, 14 strikeouts. If Church is able to get back on the mound without a long-term absence, he could still find his way to the big leagues this season, but it’s not entirely clear how feasible that is in light of this setback. The Rangers will presumably have more updates on the promising young righty in the weeks to come.

Rangers Place Tyler Mahle On 60-Day Injured List

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The Rangers announced today that right-hander Tyler Mahle has been placed on the 60-day injured list. Combined with yesterday’s outright of infielder José Barrero, the club opened two spots to select the contracts of right-hander José Ureña and first baseman Jared Walsh, moves which were previously reported.

Mahle, 29, underwent Tommy John surgery in May while with the Twins. He reached free agency after last year and signed with the Rangers, a two-year deal with a $22MM guarantee, with the club knowing they weren’t going to get any contributions from Mahle in the first few months of that deal. He’ll join Jacob deGrom, who is also rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, on the 60-day IL as both pitchers look to come back later in the year.

Notably, right-hander Max Scherzer has been placed on the 15-day IL but has not been placed on the 60-day IL and it doesn’t seem like he will, at least for now. He underwent back surgery in December and it was announced at that time that he would probably be sidelined into June or July. However, more recent developments have suggested he may be able to beat that timeline, with manager Bruce Bochy suggesting a few weeks back that Scherzer was ahead of schedule.

“My guess is we do not do that,” general manager Chris Young said about the matter yesterday, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. Today, Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News relays that Scherzer threw a bullpen and characterized himself as “early February,” suggesting he’s perhaps about six weeks behind schedule.

Placing Scherzer on the 60-day injured list, whether it’s now or later, would mean he’s ineligible to be activated until late May. It seems like he may be able to return somewhere in that vicinity, so the Rangers are leaving that option open for now. If the timeline changes in the weeks to come, they could transfer him to the 60-day IL at that point and it will be backdated to his recent placement on the 15-day IL. In other words, even if he gets transferred to the 60-day IL a month from now, he could still be reinstated in late May.

The Rangers’ rotation will likely change a lot over the course of the year. They will start the season with Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Cody Bradford but reinforcements will be coming throughout the year. Michael Lorenzen was recently signed but he’ll need a few weeks to build up into game readiness. It sounds like Scherzer won’t be far behind him with Mahle and deGrom to follow as the season progresses.

Injury Notes: Scherzer, Donovan, Lodolo, Chang

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Max Scherzer is one of a trio of key Rangers starters who’ll open the season on the injured list. The three-time Cy Young winner underwent surgery in mid-December to repair a disc herniation in his back. The team announced at the time that the injury would keep him out of action into June or July.

It appears things are going well in the early stages of Scherzer’s rehab process. Manager Bruce Bochy told MLB Network this week the team envisions the star righty being back on an MLB mound by June (X link). The veteran skipper said that’s “a little bit earlier” than the team initially expected. Bochy indicated the club was shooting for a July return for offseason signee Tyler Mahle and a potential August timetable on Jacob deGrom, both of whom are working back from Tommy John procedures.

A few other health notes around the league:

  • Brendan Donovan is preparing for a rebound after his 2023 season was cut short. An injury to his throwing arm initially required the Cardinals infielder to move to designated hitter. With the team out of contention by the trade deadline, Donovan shut things down and underwent season-ending surgery. While that was initially reported as a flexor tendon repair in his forearm, Donovan clarified to John Denton of MLB.com that he actually had an internal brace procedure to fix the UCL in his elbow (on X). The 27-year-old is back in action this spring and should split most of his time with Nolan Gorman between second base and DH.
  • Reds starter Nick Lodolo was limited to seven appearances in 2023 because of a stress reaction in his left tibia. That bothersome issue kept him out of action from mid-May on. The southpaw apparently isn’t quite at 100%. Lodolo has yet to make his Spring Training debut because of residual leg discomfort on days after his bullpen or live batting practice sessions, manager David Bell told reporters (link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The Reds are sending Lodolo for additional testing on the bone before deciding on the next step in his build-up process. That’s at least somewhat alarming, although Bell said the team is still hopeful that Lodolo will avoid opening the season on the injured list.
  • The Rays lost one of their depth infielders to what’ll be a fairly significant injury. Yu Chang will be out six to eight weeks after suffering an oblique strain, manager Kevin Cash told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (relayed on X). That was the concern when the team revealed that Chang was dealing with left side soreness earlier in the week. The defensive specialist is in camp on a minor league contract. He had a shot at securing an Opening Day bench spot, particularly with Taylor Walls opening the season on the IL, but that’s no longer in play. The Rays have declared José Caballero their expected starter at shortstop. Recent free agent pickup Amed Rosario is on hand as a multi-positional option who’d likely be Caballero’s primary backup.

Rangers Sign Tyler Mahle To Two-Year Deal

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The Rangers have taken another upside shot in the rotation, signing Tyler Mahle to a two-year contract. It’s reportedly a $22MM guarantee for the ISE Baseball client, who can earn up to $5MM more in bonuses depending on his 2025 innings tally. He will have a salary of $5.5MM in 2024 and $16.5MM in 2025, and the deal comes with a limited no-trade clause. He’ll miss the start of the ’24 season as he completes his rehab from last season’s Tommy John surgery. Texas has two additional openings on the 40-man roster.

Mahle spent a season and a half with the Twins. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds at the 2022 trade deadline. It turned out to be one of the more lopsided deadline deals of the past couple summers. Cincinnati acquired Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and prospect Steve Hajjar, whom they subsequently flipped to the Guardians as part of a deal for Will Benson.

Unfortunately for Minnesota, injuries ruined their end of the deal. Mahle landed on the injured list within a few weeks of his acquisition as a result of shoulder inflammation. He returned, pitched once, then went back on the IL for the remainder of the season. Mahle looked back to form early in 2023, working to a 3.16 ERA over five starts. He suffered an elbow injury during his outing on April 27 and underwent the Tommy John procedure a couple weeks later.

That ended his season and ultimately, his tenure with the Twins. Given the approximate 14-month recovery timeline often associated with TJS rehab, he could return sometime around the All-Star Break. That would put Mahle on a similar trajectory as Jacob deGrom, who underwent the same surgery around four weeks later.

While Mahle wouldn’t bring the same level of upside as deGrom, he’d be a high-ceiling addition in his own right. The 29-year-old developed into a quality mid-rotation starter late in his time in Cincinnati. Between 2020 and the ’22 deadline, he worked to a 3.93 ERA in 332 innings spanning 62 appearances. Mahle punched out an above-average 27.4% of batters faced over that stretch against a manageable 8.9% walk rate. Despite pitching in a difficult home park, he allowed only 1.1 home runs per nine innings.

Mahle’s velocity has been down a bit over the past two seasons, which isn’t surprising given the arm issues. In 2021, he averaged 94 MPH on his four-seam with a plus cutter/slider that sat around 87 MPH. Mahle has a splitter to deploy against left-handed hitters and has posted neutral platoon numbers over his career.

If he can recapture his pre-surgery form, Mahle would fit into the middle or back end of a quality Texas rotation. The Rangers haven’t been shy about taking on injury risk to pursue high-upside starters. deGrom was the prime example, of course, but each of Mahle, Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney were talented fliers in the middle tiers of the starting pitching market.

Max Scherzer anchors the season-opening staff. Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney and Dane Dunning project to fill out the remainder of the Opening Day five. Texas should have more clarity on the respective health statuses of deGrom and Mahle as next summer’s trade deadline approaches.

Mahle’s contract narrowly tops MLBTR’s two-year, $20MM prediction. It’s just north of the $20MM guarantee secured by Rockies right-hander Germán Márquez, a similar caliber of pitcher who signed for two years after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May. Mahle, who turned 29 in September, is on track to get back to free agency in advance of his age-31 season in 2026.

The $11MM average annual value brings the Rangers’ competitive balance tax number to roughly $232MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s just below next season’s $237MM base threshold. Texas carried an approximate $252MM luxury tax number last season. While their championship run surely brought in a fair amount of playoff revenue, the organization is also facing some uncertainty about its local television rights contract. GM Chris Young indicated at the Winter Meetings that the team would be a little quieter in free agency than they’d been in the past few offseasons.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the $22MM guarantee and $5MM in performance bonuses. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the specific annual breakdown and limited no-trade.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Free Agent Pitching Dark Horses, Padres To Cut Payroll, and If The Angels Should Rebuild

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, pinch-hitting host Mark Polishuk is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • MLBTR continues previewing the free agent class, with a focus on which starters and relievers might be flying a bit under the radar as quality signings for 2024 (0:50)
  • The Padres are planning to reduce payroll next season, and could some broader front office changes also be coming? (11:00)
  • After another losing season and with the possible departure of Shohei Ohtani, would the Angels explore rebuilding (and trading Mike Trout) to get the franchise back on track? (15:06)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will the Twins re-sign Sonny Gray or Tyler Mahle, and what kind of contracts could each pitcher land in free agency?(23:03)
  • Could the Braves’ pitching injuries short-circuit their postseason chances? (28:48)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Front Office Changes in Boston and New York, and the New Rays Stadium Agreement — listen here
  • Free Agent Class Preview: Catcher and First Base, Germán Márquez Extension and the Dodgers’ Rotation — listen here
  • Waiver Claim Fallout, September Call-Ups and the Biggest Strength of Each Playoff Contender — listen here

The Reds’ Less Heralded Breakout Rookie

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The Reds are MLB’s most surprising first-place team heading into the All-Star Break. Cincinnati is nine games above .500 and a game clear of the Brewers in the NL Central. They’re 24-12 since the start of June, largely thanks to an influx of rookie talent.

Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain have gotten plenty of attention, while Andrew Abbott has quickly ascended to the role of staff ace with Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene injured. Their midseason promotions have deservedly come with plenty of fanfare. They’re not the only rookies in Cincinnati having quality seasons, though.

Spencer Steer, acquired from the Twins alongside Christian Encarnacion-Strand for Tyler Mahle at last summer’s deadline, first reached the majors in September. While he struggled in that 28-game cameo, the Reds made clear Steer would get a chance to play regularly out of the gate. Cincinnati released Mike Moustakas in January and made Steer their Opening Day third baseman.

The 25-year-old wasn’t long for the hot corner. By the end of April, the Reds had kicked him across the diamond to first base. That put a lot of pressure on the former third-round pick to produce offensively. He’s done just that, finishing the year’s unofficial first half with a .277/.367/.477 batting line over 376 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter has connected on 14 home runs, walked at an excellent 11.2% rate, and kept his strikeouts to a modest 18.9% clip.

Steer has demonstrated a well-rounded offensive profile. He rarely chases pitches outside the strike zone. He’s making contact at an above-average rate. When he puts the bat on the ball, he tends to make solid contact. Just over 40% of Steer’s batted balls have been hit hard (an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater), a mark that’s a couple percentage points above league average.

Prospect evaluators have generally suggested Steer’s raw power potential is fringe-average. That’s atypical for a first baseman, but he’s shown just enough pop and a knack for getting the ball in the air. Steer hits a number of fly-balls, and while they’re not hit with overwhelming power — his 92.2 MPH average exit velocity on fly-balls is exactly league average — it has been sufficient. That’s particularly true at Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park; Steer is slugging .497 with a .204 ISO at home and .461 with a .197 ISO on the road.

That production has been enough to solidify Steer as an everyday presence in David Bell’s lineup. That came mostly at first base in the early summer. He’s seen a little more left field time of late with Joey Votto now healthy. His initial third base position has essentially become De La Cruz’s domain.

Coincidentally, Steer’s excellent start has probably held off Encarnacion-Strand’s debut. The latter is mashing at a .321/.392/.620 clip with 20 homers in 65 games for Triple-A Louisville. He’s done nothing but rake since joining the professional ranks as a fourth-round pick in 2021. On many clubs, Encarnacion-Strand would already be in the majors.

There simply hasn’t been room in Cincinnati. The Reds aren’t going to call up the 23-year-old corner infielder to serve as a bench bat. Votto has been great since returning from the injured list. De La Cruz is entrenched at hot corner with McLain at shortstop. Steer’s presence in the first base/corner outfield/designated hitter mix means there aren’t many at-bats to go around, barring injury.

That’s a nice short-term “problem” to have. Encarnacion-Strand figures to get a crack before too long as injuries necessitate. From a broader perspective, the Mahle trade added a pair of promising infielders to the upper levels of the Cincinnati organization. It looks like a massive coup for the Reds.

Unfortunately for Minnesota, they got very little out of the deal. Injuries kept Mahle to just four starts down the stretch last season. He started five games this year before a May Tommy John surgery ended his season and likely his time as a Twin. The right-hander is headed to free agency and could look for a buy-low two-year deal to finish his rehab with an eye towards a late-2024 return and full ’25 season.

Cincinnati controls Steer through the 2028 campaign. He won’t reach arbitration until after the ’25 season. Encarnacion-Strand is controllable through at least 2029, depending on the time of his MLB promotion and whether he’s subsequently optioned back to the minors. Left-hander Steve Hajjar, the third piece in the Mahle trade, has already been flipped to the Guardians as one of two minor leaguers for outfielder Will Benson.

With Steer contributing at the big league level, the Mahle swap has already helped the Reds emerge as playoff contenders quicker than most had anticipated. They can take the opposite approach to this summer’s deadline, likely by acquiring pitching help.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Tyler Mahle To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Twins right-hander Tyler Mahle will undergo Tommy John surgery, manager Rocco Baldelli announced to reporters Thursday (Twitter link via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). Mahle, who’s scheduled to become a free agent at season’s end, will miss the remainder of the 2023 campaign and the early portion of the 2024 season as well.

It’s a brutal blow for a Twins team that traded three prospects to acquire the final year-plus of Mahle’s arbitration eligibility at last summer’s trade deadline. The 28-year-old Mahle has pitched well for the Twins when healthy, notching a 3.64 ERA in nine starts, but shoulder troubles limited him to just four appearances post-trade last year and he’s now done for the season in 2023 after just five starts. Given his impending free agency, it could spell the end of Mahle’s time with the team entirely — hardly what the front office had in mind when sending Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Steven Hajjar to Cincinnati in that swap.

There’s still the possibility that the Twins could try to work out some type extension that’d keep Mahle in Minnesota beyond the current season. They’ve previously shown a willingness to work out that type of deal with pitchers rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Michael Pineda’s original two-year, $20MM free-agent deal with the Twins was signed knowing he’d miss the bulk of that first year recovering from a Tommy John operation. Minnesota also extended right-hander Chris Paddack — another trade acquisition who wound up requiring Tommy John — on a three-year deal earlier this year. Paddack won’t return until this summer.

Regardless of where things go with Mahle’s contract status, his injury leaves an unquestionable hole in the Twins’ rotation. Minnesota is deeper in starting pitching this season than at any point in recent memory, but Mahle will now join Kenta Maeda on the injured list. Right-handers Bailey Ober and Louie Varland began the season with Triple-A St. Paul and might well have been guaranteed rotation spots with many other clubs, given their 2022 success. They’ll both likely be locked into the Twins’ starting staff now, following a strong trio of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray.

Further injuries to the group could truly begin to test the Twins’ depth. Prospects Simeon Woods Richardson and Brent Headrick have had tough starts in St. Paul — though Headrick excelled in a brief big league look — and former top prospect Jordan Balazovic is just now moving back into a starting role after his 2022 season was ruined by a knee injury. Prospects Josh Winder and Cole Sands were rotation options last year in Minnesota, but both have been primarily working out of the bullpen in 2023.

As it stands, the Twins’ starting five still looks like a strong group. Ober has been brilliant in 2023 (0.98 ERA and 18 1/3 innings through three starts) and now boasts a career 3.51 ERA in 166 2/3 MLB frames. Varland has a 4.32 ERA through three turns and, paired with last year’s handful of starts in his debut season, carries a 4.01 ERA in 42 2/3 big league innings. The previously mentioned Paddack isn’t yet ready to join the group, but he’s nearing the one-year anniversary of his own Tommy John operation. He could be ready for a return mid-summer, and the team is also hopeful that Maeda can avoid a prolonged stint on the injured list — though they’ve not yet placed a hard timetable on his return.

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