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MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Free Agent Pitching Dark Horses, Padres To Cut Payroll, and If The Angels Should Rebuild

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, pinch-hitting host Mark Polishuk is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • MLBTR continues previewing the free agent class, with a focus on which starters and relievers might be flying a bit under the radar as quality signings for 2024 (0:50)
  • The Padres are planning to reduce payroll next season, and could some broader front office changes also be coming? (11:00)
  • After another losing season and with the possible departure of Shohei Ohtani, would the Angels explore rebuilding (and trading Mike Trout) to get the franchise back on track? (15:06)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will the Twins re-sign Sonny Gray or Tyler Mahle, and what kind of contracts could each pitcher land in free agency?(23:03)
  • Could the Braves’ pitching injuries short-circuit their postseason chances? (28:48)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Front Office Changes in Boston and New York, and the New Rays Stadium Agreement — listen here
  • Free Agent Class Preview: Catcher and First Base, Germán Márquez Extension and the Dodgers’ Rotation — listen here
  • Waiver Claim Fallout, September Call-Ups and the Biggest Strength of Each Playoff Contender — listen here

The Reds’ Less Heralded Breakout Rookie

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The Reds are MLB’s most surprising first-place team heading into the All-Star Break. Cincinnati is nine games above .500 and a game clear of the Brewers in the NL Central. They’re 24-12 since the start of June, largely thanks to an influx of rookie talent.

Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain have gotten plenty of attention, while Andrew Abbott has quickly ascended to the role of staff ace with Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene injured. Their midseason promotions have deservedly come with plenty of fanfare. They’re not the only rookies in Cincinnati having quality seasons, though.

Spencer Steer, acquired from the Twins alongside Christian Encarnacion-Strand for Tyler Mahle at last summer’s deadline, first reached the majors in September. While he struggled in that 28-game cameo, the Reds made clear Steer would get a chance to play regularly out of the gate. Cincinnati released Mike Moustakas in January and made Steer their Opening Day third baseman.

The 25-year-old wasn’t long for the hot corner. By the end of April, the Reds had kicked him across the diamond to first base. That put a lot of pressure on the former third-round pick to produce offensively. He’s done just that, finishing the year’s unofficial first half with a .277/.367/.477 batting line over 376 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter has connected on 14 home runs, walked at an excellent 11.2% rate, and kept his strikeouts to a modest 18.9% clip.

Steer has demonstrated a well-rounded offensive profile. He rarely chases pitches outside the strike zone. He’s making contact at an above-average rate. When he puts the bat on the ball, he tends to make solid contact. Just over 40% of Steer’s batted balls have been hit hard (an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater), a mark that’s a couple percentage points above league average.

Prospect evaluators have generally suggested Steer’s raw power potential is fringe-average. That’s atypical for a first baseman, but he’s shown just enough pop and a knack for getting the ball in the air. Steer hits a number of fly-balls, and while they’re not hit with overwhelming power — his 92.2 MPH average exit velocity on fly-balls is exactly league average — it has been sufficient. That’s particularly true at Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park; Steer is slugging .497 with a .204 ISO at home and .461 with a .197 ISO on the road.

That production has been enough to solidify Steer as an everyday presence in David Bell’s lineup. That came mostly at first base in the early summer. He’s seen a little more left field time of late with Joey Votto now healthy. His initial third base position has essentially become De La Cruz’s domain.

Coincidentally, Steer’s excellent start has probably held off Encarnacion-Strand’s debut. The latter is mashing at a .321/.392/.620 clip with 20 homers in 65 games for Triple-A Louisville. He’s done nothing but rake since joining the professional ranks as a fourth-round pick in 2021. On many clubs, Encarnacion-Strand would already be in the majors.

There simply hasn’t been room in Cincinnati. The Reds aren’t going to call up the 23-year-old corner infielder to serve as a bench bat. Votto has been great since returning from the injured list. De La Cruz is entrenched at hot corner with McLain at shortstop. Steer’s presence in the first base/corner outfield/designated hitter mix means there aren’t many at-bats to go around, barring injury.

That’s a nice short-term “problem” to have. Encarnacion-Strand figures to get a crack before too long as injuries necessitate. From a broader perspective, the Mahle trade added a pair of promising infielders to the upper levels of the Cincinnati organization. It looks like a massive coup for the Reds.

Unfortunately for Minnesota, they got very little out of the deal. Injuries kept Mahle to just four starts down the stretch last season. He started five games this year before a May Tommy John surgery ended his season and likely his time as a Twin. The right-hander is headed to free agency and could look for a buy-low two-year deal to finish his rehab with an eye towards a late-2024 return and full ’25 season.

Cincinnati controls Steer through the 2028 campaign. He won’t reach arbitration until after the ’25 season. Encarnacion-Strand is controllable through at least 2029, depending on the time of his MLB promotion and whether he’s subsequently optioned back to the minors. Left-hander Steve Hajjar, the third piece in the Mahle trade, has already been flipped to the Guardians as one of two minor leaguers for outfielder Will Benson.

With Steer contributing at the big league level, the Mahle swap has already helped the Reds emerge as playoff contenders quicker than most had anticipated. They can take the opposite approach to this summer’s deadline, likely by acquiring pitching help.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Tyler Mahle To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Twins right-hander Tyler Mahle will undergo Tommy John surgery, manager Rocco Baldelli announced to reporters Thursday (Twitter link via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). Mahle, who’s scheduled to become a free agent at season’s end, will miss the remainder of the 2023 campaign and the early portion of the 2024 season as well.

It’s a brutal blow for a Twins team that traded three prospects to acquire the final year-plus of Mahle’s arbitration eligibility at last summer’s trade deadline. The 28-year-old Mahle has pitched well for the Twins when healthy, notching a 3.64 ERA in nine starts, but shoulder troubles limited him to just four appearances post-trade last year and he’s now done for the season in 2023 after just five starts. Given his impending free agency, it could spell the end of Mahle’s time with the team entirely — hardly what the front office had in mind when sending Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Steven Hajjar to Cincinnati in that swap.

There’s still the possibility that the Twins could try to work out some type extension that’d keep Mahle in Minnesota beyond the current season. They’ve previously shown a willingness to work out that type of deal with pitchers rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Michael Pineda’s original two-year, $20MM free-agent deal with the Twins was signed knowing he’d miss the bulk of that first year recovering from a Tommy John operation. Minnesota also extended right-hander Chris Paddack — another trade acquisition who wound up requiring Tommy John — on a three-year deal earlier this year. Paddack won’t return until this summer.

Regardless of where things go with Mahle’s contract status, his injury leaves an unquestionable hole in the Twins’ rotation. Minnesota is deeper in starting pitching this season than at any point in recent memory, but Mahle will now join Kenta Maeda on the injured list. Right-handers Bailey Ober and Louie Varland began the season with Triple-A St. Paul and might well have been guaranteed rotation spots with many other clubs, given their 2022 success. They’ll both likely be locked into the Twins’ starting staff now, following a strong trio of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray.

Further injuries to the group could truly begin to test the Twins’ depth. Prospects Simeon Woods Richardson and Brent Headrick have had tough starts in St. Paul — though Headrick excelled in a brief big league look — and former top prospect Jordan Balazovic is just now moving back into a starting role after his 2022 season was ruined by a knee injury. Prospects Josh Winder and Cole Sands were rotation options last year in Minnesota, but both have been primarily working out of the bullpen in 2023.

As it stands, the Twins’ starting five still looks like a strong group. Ober has been brilliant in 2023 (0.98 ERA and 18 1/3 innings through three starts) and now boasts a career 3.51 ERA in 166 2/3 MLB frames. Varland has a 4.32 ERA through three turns and, paired with last year’s handful of starts in his debut season, carries a 4.01 ERA in 42 2/3 big league innings. The previously mentioned Paddack isn’t yet ready to join the group, but he’s nearing the one-year anniversary of his own Tommy John operation. He could be ready for a return mid-summer, and the team is also hopeful that Maeda can avoid a prolonged stint on the injured list — though they’ve not yet placed a hard timetable on his return.

Twins Select Dereck Rodríguez, Recall Alex Kirilloff

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The Twins announced a series of roster moves today, selecting right-hander Dereck Rodríguez and recalling infielder/outfielder Alex Kirilloff from Triple-A St. Paul. In corresponding moves, outfielder Trevor Larnach was optioned to Triple-A while left-hander Caleb Thielbar has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a right oblique strain. To open a 40-man spot for Rodríguez, righty Tyler Mahle was transferred to the 60-day IL.

Rodríguez, 31 next month, arrived in the big leagues as a starter in 2018, posting a 2.81 ERA in 118 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, his ERA jumped to 5.64 the next year and he’s largely been in a depth/swingman role since then. He made just two appearances in the big leagues in 2020 and none in 2021. Last year, he was with the Twins on a minor league deal and was twice selected to the big league club, once in April and once in September. In each case, he made one multi-inning relief stint and was promptly designated for assignment.

He and the organization seem to have have a good relationship, as he re-signed on another minor league deal this past winter even after all of that roster shuffling. He has a 4.66 ERA in 19 1/3 Triple-A innings this year and will give the club a fresh arm. They used five relievers yesterday, not including Thielbar, in their 12-inning game against the White Sox.

As for Kirilloff, he’s a former first round draft pick and was one of the top prospects in baseball not too long ago. Persistent wrist problems have frequently put him out of action and also diminished his production, but he seems to be on a tear right now. He began the year on the injured list and was optioned after returning to health, but is hitting .300/.426/.580 through 14 minor league games. He’ll get a chance to see if he can bring any of that up to the majors, hopefully staying healthy in the process.

As for Mahle, it was reported on the weekend that he would be shut down for four weeks due to a posterior impingement and a flexor pronator strain in his throwing arm. Even if he’s healthy after that shutdown period, he would then have to ramp back up to a full starter’s workload. It would have been difficult for him to return within 60 days but this move now makes that officially off the table.

Twins’ Tyler Mahle To Be Shut Down For Four Weeks

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Twins right-hander Tyler Mahle underwent an MRI today to determine the nature of an elbow impingement, and the results aren’t promising.  Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Dan Hayes of The Athletic) that Mahle will be shut down for the next four weeks due to both a posterior impingement and a flexor pronator strain.

Assuming Mahle emerges from that shutdown period in good condition, it will still likely take a couple of weeks for him to rehab and rebuild his strength back up to regular levels, so the Twins might be without one of their rotation stalwarts until late June.  Kenta Maeda also went to the 15-day IL just two days ago, but while Maeda’s strained right triceps issue seems slightly less serious, it seems like Maeda could also miss a big portion of May.

The Twins have an off-day on Monday, so Mahle’s own IL placement will likely be held off until prior to the team’s game against the White Sox on Tuesday.  Bailey Ober was already called up from Triple-A to act as Maeda’s replacement in the rotation, so Minnesota will again have to dip into its starter depth.  The silver lining might be that the Twins are better equipped than most teams to withstand rotation injuries, since Louie Varland is also on hand at Triple-A and seems the likeliest candidate to be called up in Mahle’s place.  Simeon Woods Richardson and Brent Headrick might also be options, as both are on Minnesota’s 40-man roster.

The injury is a tough setback for Mahle, who looked good in posting a 3.16 ERA over his first five starts and 25 2/3 innings of the season.  The righty’s 27.5% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate were both above league average, and the latter figure is of particular note given how control has often been an issue for Mahle throughout his six previous MLB seasons.  A .266 BABIP and 80% strand rate have contributed to Mahle’s good numbers, but his 3.50 SIERA isn’t too far north of his actual 3.16 ERA.

In the bigger picture, Mahle is a free agent after the season, so any kind of lengthy injury layoff could certainly hamper his chances of maximizing his value on his next contract.  It doesn’t help that Mahle also missed a big chunk of the 2022 season due to shoulder problems, as he pitched only 28 1/3 innings after July 2 due to three separate IL trips.  Only time will tell if Mahle will be able to be able to return from this current injury in relatively short order and in good form, but an extended run of good health and quality pitching after his return could line Mahle up for a hefty multi-year deal this winter.

AL Central Notes: White Sox, Mahle, Skubal

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The White Sox are set to get some much needed reinforcements early this week, as manager Pedro Grifol tells reporters (including MLB.com’s Scott Merkin) that both shortstop Tim Anderson and infielder Hanser Alberto are expected to return from the injured list on Tuesday.

That’s great news for the club, as the White Sox have begun their 2023 campaign with a worrisome 7-21 record that places them tied for last in the AL Central, nine games back of the division-leading Twins. A two time All Star who won the batting title in 2019, Anderson is one of the club’s marquee players. From 2019 to 2021 Anderson posted 11.6 fWAR in 295 games, a pace of nearly 6.4 fWAR per 162 games, thanks to solid defense at shortstop paired with a .322/.349/.495 slash line that was good for a 126 wRC+. That being said, Anderson missed three months of action in 2022 due to multiple injuries and didn’t reach those same standards when on the field, posting just a 110 wRC+ in 79 games along with a .093 ISO that was far below the .173 he managed during his peak years.

Even after a relative down season last year, however, Anderson figures to be one of the club’s best players this season, and any hope of a turnaround for the White Sox after this brutal start to the 2023 campaign likely rests in large part on his shoulders. In coming off the IL, he’ll be joined by Alberto, who figures to join Chicago’s bench mix alongside Romy Gonzalez, Lenyn Sosa, Gavin Sheets, and Adam Haseley. Despite a career wRC+ of just 77, Alberto is in his eighth year in the majors thanks to his versatility, which has allowed him to play all over the diamond except for behind the plate and in center field, and his penchant for avoiding strikeouts, as the 30-year-old veteran has punched out in just 12.2% of his 1,406 plate appearances in his career to this point.

More from around the AL Central…

  • Twins right-hander Tyler Mahle underwent an MRI on his arm after he was diagnosed with an elbow impingement earlier this week. Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters, including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park, that the team will have more details soon but that Mahle is expected to miss his next start at the very least. It’s not currently known if an injured list stint will be necessary for Mahle, who has a 3.16 ERA in five starts so far in 2023. The Twins have a variety of options for a spot start on the 40-man roster if necessary, including Simeon Woods-Richardson, Cole Sands, Louie Varland and Brent Headrick.
  • Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal, who underwent flexor surgery last August, threw off a mound for the first time since his surgery yesterday, as noted by MLive’s Evan Woodberry. Everything went well during the bullpen, during which Skubal threw 15 fastballs. Skubal doesn’t figure to return from injury any time soon, but the positive update is nonetheless great news for the Tigers, who also lost fellow youngsters Casey Mize and Matt Manning before the season began. 2022 was something of a breakout season for Skubal, as the young lefty posted a 3.52 ERA and 2.96 FIP in 117 2/3 innings of work.

Twins To Place Kenta Maeda On Injured List

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The Twins are placing righty Kenta Maeda on the injured list with what’s been diagnosed as a strained right triceps, per Dan Hayes of The Athletic (Twitter links). He’ll be shut down for three to seven days. Twins trainer Nick Paparesta tells Hayes and others that examinations did not reveal anything related to Maeda’s 2021 Tommy John surgery and that he’s being treated only for the muscle strain.

The team also offered some insight into righty Tyler Mahle, who was lifted from yesterday’s blowout of the Royals after throwing just 66 pitches through four innings of one-run ball. Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com tweets that Mahle is dealing with an impingement in the back of his elbow, which contributed to his drop in velocity during yesterday’s fourth inning. The Twins aren’t yet sure whether he’ll make his start and will reevaluate him in 48 to 72 hours, after he’s been treated with anti-inflammatories.

There’s no clear timetable on when Maeda will return, but for now the Twins will turn to 6’9″ right-hander Bailey Ober in his place. The towering righty has made a full season’s worth of starts for Minnesota dating back to 2021, including one earlier this year. In those 32 trips to the hill, he’s pitched to a 3.74 ERA with a strong 24.1% strikeout rate against an even better 5.3% walk rate. Ober allowed one run in 5 2/3 innings during a spot start in place of Maeda earlier this season and has a 2.55 ERA in four starts with Triple-A St. Paul to begin the season.

If it’s determined that Mahle also requires a trip to the injured list, the Twins’ depth will be tested further, though they’re well-stocked in that regard. Right-hander Louie Varland, who’s also made a spot start already this season, owns a 3.94 ERA in six big league starts and has a 2.72 ERA with a 52-to-7 K/BB ratio in 36 1/3 career innings at the Triple-A level. He’s widely regarded as one of the team’s ten best prospects.

Beyond Ober and Varland, the Twins have options on the 40-man, including righty Simeon Woods Richardson and lefty Brent Headrick, both of whom have made their big league debuts already. Headrick was in a long relief role with the Twins for a chunk of April but worked a three-inning outing against the Red Sox in his debut appearance and tossed 84 pitches over five innings of two-run ball in relief of Maeda after his early exit against the Yankees this week. Given those pitch counts, he’d be an option to start at the MLB level, should the need arise.

Twins Place Tyler Mahle On 15-Day Injured List

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In his first start back from the injured list, Tyler Mahle lasted only two innings before leaving last night’s game due to inflammation in his right shoulder.  As a result, Mahle has been returned to the 15-day IL, with left-hander Jovani Moran recalled from Triple-A.  Moran was only optioned to Triple-A yesterday as the corresponding move for Mahle’s activation.

Shoulder inflammation was responsible for Mahle’s previous IL stint, and he also missed three weeks in July due to a right shoulder strain.  Since July 3, Mahle has appeared in only six games and tossed 28 1/3 innings, with his last four starts coming with Minnesota after being acquired by the Reds at the trade deadline.

The Twins hoped that Mahle would be a big boost to the rotation down the stretch, and he did at least contribute a 2.51 ERA over his first three outings in a Minnesota uniform (with the Twins winning all three of those games).  However, given the recurring nature of his shoulder problems, it is fair to wonder if Mahle’s season could be in jeopardy.

Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park) yesterday that Mahle was slated to undergo more examinations today, and implied that another IL stint was forthcoming, “What that means going forward?  No one knows the answer to that yet.  I’m not closing the book on him, this season, pitching for us,” Baldelli said.

As Park noted, Mahle’s start yesterday bore several similarities to the August 17 start that preceded his last IL visit.  In both outings, Mahle’s velocity was down, and he threw only 37 pitches.  The difference was that on August 17, Mahle still managed to hold the Royals scoreless in 2 1/3 innings, whereas the White Sox scored four runs in Mahle’s two innings yesterday en route to a 13-0 Chicago victory.

That loss dropped the Twins to 6-9 over their last 15 games.  Despite a losing record (37-43) since the start of June, Minnesota remains only one game back of the Guardians for the AL Central lead, with the White Sox a game behind in third place.  The division title may be the Twins’ best path to the postseason, as the Twins have fallen five games back of the last wild card berth.

Getting to the playoffs will be more difficult without Mahle, who is now the 17th player on the Twins’ extensive injured list.  This list includes several notable regulars (i.e. Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach) who are tentatively expected to return in September, but the Twins can hardly afford to be without such key personnel for so long.

Sonny Gray is also a question mark after leaving his start on Friday due to hamstring tightness, as Baldelli said Gray would have to throw a bullpen session and pass other tests before being allowed to make his next start.  Gray is tentatively slated to start for Minnesota on Wednesday against the Yankees, but if he can’t pitch, that leaves the rotation even more short-handed.

Twins Reinstate Tyler Mahle From 15-Day Injured List

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The Twins officially reinstated Tyler Mahle from the 15-day injured list, prior to Mahle’s scheduled start tonight against the White Sox.  Left-hander Jovani Moran was optioned to Triple-A to create roster space.

Mahle missed just a little beyond the 15-day minimum, as he was retroactively placed on the IL on August 18 due to inflammation his right shoulder.  The issue caused Mahle to leave his last start after 2 1/3 innings, but an MRI came back clean, and the Twins even considered only skipping Mahle for a single start in the hopes that he could avoid the injured list altogether.  However, the team opted for some caution given that Mahle also missed three weeks in July due to a shoulder strain.

That injury created doubt as to whether or not Mahle would be healthy enough to be traded by the August 2 deadline, but after he returned from the IL, the Reds indeed moved Mahle in exchange for three prospects.  Mahle was off to a nice start with Minnesota before his injury, posting a 2.51 ERA over three outings and 14 1/3 innings in a Twins uniform.

Getting Mahle back in pretty short order is a sign of relief for a Twins club that is battling for both the AL Central (one game behind the Guardians) and for a wild card spot (four games behind the Blue Jays).  Today’s game has particular import for the Twins, as the White Sox are only two games behind Minnesota in the standings.

NL Central Notes: Matz, Perez, Pirates, Reds Deadline

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Steven Matz suffered a torn left MCL in late July, leading to fear that the left-hander’s season would possibly be over, even if surgery wasn’t required.  However, Matz is now making increased progress towards a return, with Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol telling reporters (including MLB.com’s John Denton) that Matz’s knee was pain-free while fielding some grounders on Wednesday.  Matz also threw 30 pitches off the mound during the warm-up session.  It could mean that Matz is nearing a minor league rehab assignment, though the Cardinals will continue to closely monitor his status considering his lack of workload.

Matz has pitched just once since May 22, as a shoulder impingement kept him on the injured list for almost two months, and he then suffered his MCL injury in his first start back off the IL.  St. Louis has Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, and trade deadline acquisitions Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana all thriving in the rotation, so if Matz is able to return, he could be used in a bullpen role or competing with Dakota Hudson, Jake Woodford, or another rehabbing starter in Jack Flaherty for that final spot in the rotation.  The Cardinals could potentially also explore using a six-man rotation down the stretch, or perhaps just give some of their regulars some rest if the Cards can clinch the NL Central title relatively early.  With a 17-5 record thus far in August, the Cards have opened up a 5.5-game lead over the struggling Brewers in the division race.

Some other items from around the Central…

  • Roberto Perez believes “there’s interest from both parties” in a new deal between the Pirates and the veteran catcher, Perez told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link).  Perez inked a one-year, $5MMM free agent contract with the Pirates last winter, but played in only 21 games before undergoing season-ending surgery on his left hamstring.  The catcher confirmed that his season is indeed over, as he had been hoping to make enough rehab progress to return for the final few games of the schedule.  Re-signing Perez would add a seasoned backstop to a Pittsburgh catching mix that doesn’t include a lot of big league experience, though the Bucs are hoping that if all goes well, former first overall pick Henry Davis might be able to make his MLB debut before the 2023 season is up.
  • The Reds dealt away Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, and Brandon Drury at the trade deadline, in a flurry of rebuilding moves that added a lot of depth and quality to Cincinnati’s farm system.  Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer explores the front office’s approach to the deadline, which first included some last-minute contract extension talks with Castillo and Drury’s representatives.  When those talks didn’t result in much progress, the Reds shifted focus to the trade market, with GM Nick Krall noting that the interest in Castillo allowed them to make high initial asks.  If other clubs weren’t open to that first ask, “then we can just move on….It was a pretty good way to trim the number (of teams) down from the very beginning,” Krall said.  Cincinnati had always targeted Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo when speaking with the Mariners, and both of those highly-regarded infield prospects ended up included in the package the Reds received for Castillo.  The Reds also had several offers on the table for Mahle and Drury, with the front office ultimately deciding that the offers from the Twins (for Mahle) and Padres (for Drury) were the best of the group.
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