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Tyler O'Neill

The Ongoing Cardinals Outfield Battle

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Even though the Cardinals traded away Harrison Bader last summer, they are still dealing with a crowded outfield mix. That’s thanks to the emergence of young players like Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker. Those two joined Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson in the battle for playing time. That’s five guys for three spots, since infielder Nolan Gorman has been taking the designated hitter slot on most days, with Willson Contreras getting a couple of nods there as well when not catching.

The crowding evidently got to be a bit too much, as Walker was surprisingly optioned down to the minors this week. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently addressed the move, as relayed by John Denton of MLB.com (Twitter links). Mozeliak said the move was about getting some more consistency from this group, hoping that subtracting one member would make it easier for everyone to get into a good rhythm.

The results of this jockeying for playing time will have consequences for the club in the short term, as they are off to a rough 10-16 start and will need to gain ground in the coming months. There will also be long-term ramifications, since all of those players are still under club control next year. If the Cards find themselves outside the playoff picture in July, they could consider moving someone and still have plenty of options to fill the outfield. And , as we saw last year with the Bader deal, they could make a trade even when they are in contention. Those decisions will surely be based on how the individuals perform in the next few months, so let’s take a look at where things stand now.

Tyler O’Neill

O’Neill is the oldest and most experienced of the bunch, turning 28 in June and having debuted in 2018. He has between four and five years of service time, meaning he can be controlled via arbitration for one more year before reaching free agency after the 2024 season.

He has shown the ability to be an excellent all-around player, especially in 2021. O’Neill hit 34 home runs that year and slashed .286/.352/.560 overall for a wRC+ of 144. He also stole 15 bases and was graded well for his glovework in left field, leading to a tally of 5.6 wins above replacement, per the calculations of FanGraphs. That currently stands out as a career year for O’Neill, who was slowed by injuries last year. He only got into 96 games and had a diminished .228/.308/.392 batting line (101 wRC+). This year, he’s hitting just .256/.318/.385 for a wRC+ of 98.

O’Neill and manager Oli Marmol got in a public spat earlier in the year when the latter accused the former of improper hustle and spoke to the media about it. O’Neill disagreed with the sentiment that he wasn’t giving his all and also didn’t seem to care for the issue being aired so openly. He was benched for one game but has been getting regular playing time since, seeming to suggest there’s no lingering ill will from the dust-up. He got some time in center field earlier in the year but has been back in left for the past couple of weeks.

Some observers have pointed to the fact that Bader was also criticized by Marmol for a lack of hustle last year, just about six weeks before he was flipped to the Yankees, therefore suggesting the writing is on the wall for O’Neill. That’s pure speculation, but O’Neill is the most logical trade candidate since he’s the oldest and closest to free agency. However, dealing him would be selling low unless he can regain some of that excellent form he showed a couple of years ago.

Lars Nootbaar

Nootbaar is in his third major league season but was frequently optioned in the first couple, meaning he’s played just 178 games thus far. He initially hovered around league average at the plate but has taken steps forward over the past year or so, seeming to thrive when he got more regular playing time. Bader went on the IL June 27 of last year with plantar fasciitis, moving Carlson over to center and opening right field for Nootbaar. Bader was then traded before even recovering from that ailment. Since that time, Nootbaar has walked almost as much as he’s been punched out, getting a free pass 17.2% of the time compared to an 18.4% strikeout rate. That’s led to a .244/.373/.478 batting line and a 141 wRC+. His strong results at the plate are backed up by Statcast, who ranked him in the 90th percentile last year in terms of average exit velocity, 80th in hard hit rate and 85th in barrel rate.

That strong work at the plate is accompanied by excellent glovework as well. Nootbaar has played all three outfield positions and has tallied two Outs Above Average, six Defensive Runs Saved and a 6.7 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating. In the comments from Mozeliak linked above, he said Nootbaar will be the regular center fielder going forward.

Nootbaar seems like a solid long-term piece for the Cardinals given his well-rounded contributions. He’s currently 25 years old and has between one and two years of service time. He won’t reach arbitration until after 2024 and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2027. Over the winter, both the Athletics (in Sean Murphy discussions) and Marlins (in Pablo Lopez talks) brought up Nootbaar as a target of interest, but the Cardinals rebuffed those overtures.

Alec Burleson

Unlike O’Neill and Nootbaar, Burleson has fewer dimensions to his game. His defense is generally considered subpar, even when limited to the corners, and Statcast pegs him in the 24th percentile in terms of sprint speed. He’s seen a bit of time at first base, dating back to last season.

The appeal of Burleson is his bat, which has the potential to hit for both contact and power. Outside of a brief debut in High-A in 2021, he’s generally been difficult to strike out both in the majors and the minors. He’s had only 134 major league plate appearances so far but has been punched out at just a 14.2% rate, well below this year’s 23% league average. He’s hit three home runs so far and currently has a line of .236/.295/.444. That’s just slightly above average, translating to a 104 wRC+, but that’s not bad for a player still getting his feet wet in the majors. He hit 20 home runs in 109 Triple-A games last year and slashed .331/.372/.532 (137 wRC+).

Burleson is just 24 years old and has less than a year of service, meaning he won’t qualify for arbitration until after 2025 and isn’t slated for free agency until 2028. He could be a long-term option in the corners for St. Louis, but he isn’t an exact match for their typical M.O. of placing an emphasis on defense.

Dylan Carlson

Carlson was considered one of the top prospects in baseball not too long ago, with Baseball America having him in the top 10 league-wide in 2020 and 2021. He got regular playing time over the past two years and proved himself to be a serviceable player with average-ish hitting and defense. Carlson hit .253/.331/.412 for a wRC+ of 107 over 2021 and 2022, walking and striking out at roughly league average rates. All three of DRS, OAA and UZR considered his glovework average or slightly above.

He’s been the one most squeezed by the logjam so far, only starting 10 of the club’s 26 games. The part-time role hasn’t suited him, as he’s hitting just .250/.308/.333 on the season for a wRC+ of 83. Perhaps he is the player with the most to gain from Walker’s demotion, as he will hopefully get some more trips to the plate and get into a better groove. He’s 24 years old but has between two and three years of service time already. He’s on pace to qualify for arbitration this winter and reach free agency in the 2026-27 offseason.

Jordan Walker

Walker parlayed a hot spring into an Opening Day roster spot despite being just 20 years old, turning 21 in May. He stayed hot to start the season, getting a hit in his first 12 games while slashing .319/.360/.489. He cooled off a bit from there, hitting just .192/.250/.231 since then. That latter line is a tiny sample of eight games, but the club still felt the best decision for everyone involved was for him to get regular at-bats in the minors and to spread his playing time around to the others. Between both of those stretches, he only walked in 3.8% of his trips to the plate.

Walker is still one of the best prospects in the game and will no doubt be back at some point. An injury to one of the other outfielders would quickly make space for him. He was on track to earn a full year of service this year but could wind up shy of that, depending how long he’s down on the farm.

Juan Yepez

Yepez has mashed in the minors over the past few years, hitting .252/.343/.487 in Double-A and .281/.362/.575 in Triple-A. He’s seemingly capable of carrying that over to the big leagues as well, having hit .257/.297/.453 for a wRC+ of 111 in 286 plate appearances. The problem is that he’s not considered a strong runner or defender. He could be a useful bat-first player in a corner spot, but the Cards have Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado at first and third, in addition to the crowded outfield mix. Yepez is 25 years old and still has a couple of option years, meaning the Cards can keep him as a depth piece for quite a while if they so choose.

Moises Gomez

Gomez isn’t considered a great runner or defender, nor does he have strong bat-to-ball skills. His standout tool is his power. Gomez hit 39 home runs last year in 120 games between Double-A and Triple-A, but also struck out in 34.7% of his plate appearances. He was added to the 40-man roster at season’s end to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency but is off to a slow start this year. Through 20 Triple-A games, he’s cut his strikeout rate to 24.7% but has gone deep just once and is walking just 4.7% of the time. His .234/.282/.351 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 58.

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There’s plenty of talent amid these options and it seems entirely possible that a trade will be on the table this summer, whether the Cardinals climb back into contention or not. They could easily move one of these players for some pitching, just like they did with Bader last year, and still have good options for filling out the lineup card every night. The club’s front office has just over three months to decide how to play it.

Cardinals Notes: O’Neill, Marlins, Naughton, Nootbaar, Wainwright

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Tyler O’Neill’s name was part of trade talks with the Marlins and other teams this winter, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports.  Back in January, Rosenthal wrote that St. Louis had shown interest in the Marlins’ pitching, and since Miami was known to be looking for outfield help, it stands to reason that O’Neill was part of those discussions.  No trade materialized between the two sides, of course, and it isn’t known if O’Neill was necessarily one of the Marlins’ top targets on the St. Louis roster, or if the Cards were more open to moving O’Neill than any of their outfielders.

Given all of the Cardinals’ outfield depth and the Marlins’ rotation depth, any number of names or potential trades could’ve been floated in negotiations — likewise, any team engaging the Cardinals in outfield-related trade talks might’ve had a few options in mind.  While O’Neill was coming off a relative down year in 2022, that doesn’t mean rival clubs wouldn’t have still had trade interest, perhaps hoping to nab the two-time Gold Glover in a buy-low situation.

With this all in mind, Rosenthal wonders if O’Neill could potentially be tangled in trade talks again, perhaps in an outfielder-for-pitching swap similar to the deal that sent Harrison Bader to the Yankees for Jordan Montgomery at last year’s trade deadline.  As The Athletic’s Levi Weaver noted, Bader was traded within a couple of months after Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol removed him mid-game for a perceived lack of effort.  On Wednesday, O’Neill wasn’t in the Cards’ starting lineup, which Marmol publicly said was due to what the skipper felt was a lack of hustle on O’Neill’s part in running the bases in Tuesday’s game.  O’Neill both denied that charge, and also wasn’t pleased that Marmol went public with the criticism.

It should be noted that O’Neill still appeared in Wednesday’s game as a pinch-hitter, and after Thursday’s off-day, O’Neill was back as the starting center fielder in the Cardinals’ 4-0 loss to the Brewers on Friday.  Talking to Derrick Gould of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other reporters, Marmol said it was “one hundred percent” important to have O’Neill back in action, calling him “one of the most talented players in that clubhouse.  There’s a next step for Tyler in his career, and my job is to get him there.”

The manager also explained his perspective on “holding someone accountable” as it related to his decision to call O’Neill out, saying “it’s your ability to sit down with a player before the lights come on before the stadium is packed and ask them what they want for themselves and what they want for the team.  And allowing them to articulate that and then asking for permission to hold them to that.  And when it doesn’t look right, you hold them to that.”

Beyond O’Neill’s return and the shutout loss, Friday’s game was also notable for what might be a significant injury to left-hander Packy Naughton.  After pitching to three batters in his relief outing, Naughton left the game with what the club later described as forearm tightness.  Goold wrote that Naughton was slated to have his left arm examined last night.

It seems like Naughton is headed for the injured list at the very least, and he and the team can only hope that a serious injury has been avoided.  Naughton is just a few days shy of his 27th birthday, and he is in his third MLB season.  St. Louis claimed Naughton off waivers from the Angels in March 2022, and his first season with the Cardinals saw Naughton post a 4.78 ERA over 32 innings, working mostly as a reliever.

In other injury news, Lars Nootbaar might be activated from the 10-day IL as early as Monday, since Marmol told MLB.com and other reporters that the club will wait to see how Nootbaar’s injured left thumb feels after batting practice.  However, Nootbaar said that his thumb is more of an issue when trying to catch a ball or even when wearing a glove, moreso than any pain caused by taking swings.

Adam Wainwright is on the 15-day IL recovering from a groin strain, and is slated for his second 28-pitch bullpen session on Sunday.  If all goes well, Wainwright might throw more pitches in another bullpen tentatively scheduled for Wednesday, and a minor league rehab outing could then follow in the coming days.

Cardinals Notes: O’Neill, Nootbaar, Wainwright, DeJong

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Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill is not in today’s lineup, with Dylan Carlson taking his center field spot. It appears as though this is relation to a play in last night’s game where O’Neill was thrown out at home, trying to score from second on a single by Brendan Donovan (Twitter link with video from the Braves). Manager Oli Marmol is of the opinion that O’Neill wasn’t running with full effort on the play and spoke on the record about it last night and again today, as relayed by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Katie Woo of The Athletic.

“There is a standard,” Marmol said. “You meet it, you play. You don’t meet it, you don’t play.” He further commented: “There’s going to be a style of play that we are known for. It’s going to involve effort and it’s going to involve being relentless. It’s going to involve being smart. We’re going to hold guys to that, because that’s how you sustain being good for a long time. There’s a lot of good players in that clubhouse, and down below, and I love competition. And the last thing you want to do when you’re in competition is open up a window.”

O’Neill doesn’t agree with Marmol’s view of the situation. “I’m trying to do everything I can to stay on the field and give it my best effort,” O’Neill said. “I’ve never been known to be a dogger in any caliber. So for him to say that is very strong words.” The outfielder also took exception to Marmol talking to the media about the situation. “I don’t think it should’ve been handled that way,” O’Neill said. “I think if there’s internal issues they should be handled internally. We should have each others backs out there. Sometimes it doesn’t go that way I guess. Live and you learn.”

The club came into the season with a glut of outfielders, including O’Neill, Carlson, Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson and Juan Yepez. Nootbaar is currently on the injured list but there’s still plenty of guys for three spots, while Nolan Gorman has been the designated hitter most days so far this year. Marmol’s comments suggest that his feelings about the play in question are strong enough that O’Neill is at risk of losing playing time beyond just today’s benching. Time will tell as to how it plays out in the long term, but O’Neill didn’t seem to have a good answer when asked how they will move past this. “I don’t know,” O’Neill said. “Continue with our communication. But really? I don’t know.”

O’Neill can be an excellent player when healthy, which he showed in 2021. He hit 34 home runs that year and slashed .286/.352/.560 for a wRC+ of 144. He also stole 15 bases and was given strong grades for his outfield defense, leading to a tally of 5.6 wins above replacement by FanGraphs. Last year, injuries limited him to 96 games and he wasn’t as impactful while on the field. He’s making $4.95MM this year and can be controlled via arbitration in 2024 before he’s slated to reach free agency.

Moving to less dramatic and more standard fare, Katie Woo also relayed some updates on injured members of the team. As mentioned, Nootbaar is currently on the IL, which is due to a thumb contusion. It seemed like he would likely have a short stay on the shelf and Woo relays that he may not even require a rehab assignment, though the club still isn’t sure about that. His return would further complicate the already-crowded outfield mix.

Adam Wainwright, on the injured list with a groin strain, will throw a bullpen tomorrow as he works his way back to health. Infielder Paul DeJong, who’s been out with a back issue, will begin a rehab assignment tomorrow, taking the designated hitter spot for Palm Beach.

Tyler O’Neill Expected To Open Season As Cardinals’ Starting Center Fielder

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The Cardinals are planning to open the season with Tyler O’Neill in center field, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. He’s expected to be flanked by Lars Nootbaar and rookie Jordan Walker in the corners, with Dylan Carlson pushed into a fourth outfield role out of the gate.

O’Neill has primarily played left field over the course of his career. He’s logged over 2500 MLB innings in the corners while playing just 210 2/3 frames over 26 starts up the middle. In spite of that lack of experience, O’Neill entered camp with his sight set on the outfield’s most demanding position. While he didn’t play much in Spring Training — he logged just 41 defensive innings thanks in large part to his commitment to Canada in the World Baseball Classic — the Cardinals are confident he’ll be able to assume a larger role.

It’s a bet on O’Neill’s physical tools. He’s an excellent runner with an above-average throwing arm. O’Neill has typically fared very well as a left fielder in the eyes of public metrics, securing consecutive Gold Glove awards there in 2020-21. It’s not out of the question he carries much or all of that production a notch up the defensive spectrum. O’Neill could well have gotten more reps there in prior years had the Cards not rostered a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder in Harrison Bader for much of that time.

Carlson was the primary center fielder during last year’s second half. The 24-year-old slid over from right field once Bader landed on the injured list last June; he held that role following Bader’s trade to the Yankees. Carlson played 530 innings at the position, rating as an above-average if not quite elite defender in the eyes of both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average. He paired that solid defense with a .236/.316/.380 line over 488 plate appearances, exactly league average offense as measured by wRC+.

The switch-hitting Carlson was a top prospect a few years ago. He’s been a solid player since debuting in 2020 but not made quite the impact evaluators may have anticipated, particularly from a power perspective. The transition to fourth outfield work has to register as a disappointment but certainly doesn’t preclude Carlson from playing his way back into a larger role.

It’d require good fortune for all three starting outfielders to make it through the entire season without any injuries. There’s also at least some amount of uncertainty regarding each of the players now ahead of him on the depth chart. Walker is seen as a potentially elite talent but has yet to take a regular season at-bat above Double-A. O’Neill is assuming the largest defensive responsibility of his career. Nootbaar set a career mark with 347 plate appearances last season. Nolan Gorman, who appears the early favorite for designated hitter work, has 89 games of MLB experience. There’ll be some amount of variability throughout the season depending on players’ health and performance that should afford Carlson another everyday opportunity at some point. Headed into the season, though, it appears Nootbaar, O’Neill and Walker represents the starting outfield.

Tyler O’Neill Targeting Cardinals’ Center Field Job

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With last year’s trade of Harrison Bader, the Cardinals have less certainty in center field than they have had in a few years. Dylan Carlson got significant playing time there down the stretch and has been seen as the favorite for the job going forward, but he’ll have competition. Tyler O’Neill told reporters, including Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, that he has his sights on the job.

“I’d love to play center field,” O’Neill said. “I’m not trying to boot anybody away from that position either, but it’s whatever they deem fit. I know they’re very analytically-driven here. I just want to be the best player that I can be. I’ve worked really hard this offseason at increasing my first-step quickness and making sure my legs can be under me. I believe I can definitely play that position if that’s where they want me.”

It seems as though the club is willing to give him a shot. “(He’s) competing for the center field job,” manager Oliver Marmol said. “He came into camp wanting that. He came up through our minor-league system and actually profiled as a pretty good center fielder. So it’s something that he wants and he’s going to compete for and he’s going to have an opportunity to do.” O’Neill will get a chance to test himself out in competitive games before the MLB season starts, since he’s slated to play center for the Canadian team in the upcoming World Baseball Classic.

O’Neill, 28 in June, will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing season last year, but his 2021 was excellent. In 2021, he hit 34 home runs and stole 15 bases, producing a .286/.352/.560 batting line and a 144 wRC+. Defensively, he played exclusively in left field but got strong marks there, including 11 Defensive Runs Saved, four Outs Above Average and a 6.7 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Given his all-around contributions, he was deemed to be worth 5.6 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs. That placed him 13th among all position players in the majors, just ahead of guys like Aaron Judge and Jose Altuve.

However, he couldn’t maintain that kind of production in 2022, perhaps due to injuries. A shoulder impingement and hamstring strain each caused stints on the injured list, limiting O’Neill to 96 games on the season. His batting line dropped to .228/.308/.392, wRC+ of 101, with his defensive grades also slipping.

Since center field is considered a more challenging defensive position than the corners, O’Neill could potentially be even more valuable than he was in 2021. Of course, that would be contingent both on his health and his ability to be a viable center fielder. As Marmol mentioned, O’Neill came up playing center in the minors, but it wasn’t much. He logged 55 innings in High-A in 2015, 71 innings in Triple-A in 2017 and then another 50 2/3 innings at that level in 2018, the year he made his major league debut. In the majors, he has 210 2/3 innings there so far, most of that coming last year. It’s hard to get meaningful reads on a limited sample like that, especially because he was hurt at times last year, but he’s at least been around average. Both DRS and OAA have him at an even zero so far, while UZR has him slightly in the positive range at 0.8.

Carlson, 24, got much more center field experience in the minors, including getting around 800 innings at that position in both 2018 and 2019. Since making it to the majors, he’s logged over 1,000 innings in center with solid grades, including 6 DRS and 2 OAA, though UZR has him slightly below average at -1.0.

On the defensive side of things, he’s probably a more straightforward solution for the club, but his offense hasn’t shown the kind of ceiling that O’Neill has. In 312 major league games, he’s hit 29 home runs and stolen eight bases. His .247/.323/.407 batting is just a bit above average with a 103 wRC+.

That kind of production is still strong for a capable defender in center, but if O’Neill is deemed worthy of a shot out there, it could open up other opportunities for the club. They have one of the best prospects in the league in Jordan Walker, though he will probably be best suited for a corner. He came up as a third baseman but only recently started playing the outfield since Nolan Arenado has dibs on the hot corner in St. Louis for years to come. Walker dabbled in center last year but spent far more time in right. He clobbered Double-A pitching last year by hitting .306/.388/.510 for a wRC+ of 128 at the age of 20.

Walker will likely begin the year in Triple-A but his promotion doesn’t seem far off. At some point, the Cards will have to figure out how to juggle the playing time between Walker, O’Neill and Carlson, as well as players like Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez and Alec Burleson. The designated hitter slot should be open this year with Albert Pujols now retired, but it seems like there will be a logjam at some point. It’s the proverbial “good problem to have” and inevitable injuries will surely lessen the crowding at some point, but there might be some tough choices for the club to make in the future.

All of their outfield options are still shy of reaching arbitration and come with years of affordable control, except for O’Neill. He has between four and five years of service time and is slated for free agency after 2024.

Cardinals Among Teams To Inquire On Marlins’ Starters

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The Cardinals and Marlins have held “at least preliminary” discussions regarding Miami’s bevy of young starters, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Rosenthal suggests that St. Louis is a nice fit for Pablo Lopez, although on paper, it’s easy enough to make a case for just about any of the Marlins’ available starters as a fit in St. Louis. Each of Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera has seen his name surface in trade chatter recently. Miami, however, doesn’t seem to have any plans to deal ace Sandy Alcantara, whom the Cardinals actually traded to the Fish alongside Zac Gallen in the deal that sent Marcell Ozuna from Miami to St. Louis.

The Cardinals have a solid-looking rotation on the surface, with each of Jordan Montgomery, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty likely to slot into the starting five. Depth options behind the group include Dakota Hudson, Jake Woodford, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Andre Pallante, although the latter two did well in a bullpen setting in 2022. Further down the line are prospects Gordon Graceffo, Michael McGreevy and Tink Hence, although none of that group is on the 40-man roster just yet.

All that said, however, the Cards could lose nearly their entire rotation after the season. Wainwright is set to retire, while each of Mikolas, Montgomery and Flaherty are free agents next winter. Only Matz, whose four-year contract covers the 2022-25 seasons, is signed or controlled beyond the current season.

In that sense, there’s good reason for the Cards to pursue a starter who can be controlled through at least the 2024 season. There’s surely some internal hope that someone like Liberatore, Graceffo or McGreevy can step up and seize a rotation spot when an opportunity inevitably presents itself this season, but that’s a lot to bank on. And, even if that happens, the Cards would still be looking at multiple rotation spots they need to fill next offseason — perhaps as many as three.

Lopez, 27 in March, has a 3.52 ERA over his past 340 big league innings and is arbitration-eligible through the 2024 campaign. Luzardo, even younger at 25, enjoyed a nice bounceback year in 2022 when he notched a 3.32 ERA and 30% strikeout rate, but a forearm injury limited him to just 100 1/3 innings. He’s under team control through 2026. That’s the same amount of club control as the 25-year-old Rogers, a 2021 Rookie of the Year finalist who stumbled to a 5.47 ERA in 107 frames in 2022, his second full MLB campaign. The 24-year-old Cabrera, meanwhile, has six full years of club control remaining and notched a 3.01 ERA in 71 2/3 innings in 2022.

None of that bunch is expensive, with Lopez’s $5.45MM salary leading the way. Finances shouldn’t play a major consideration for the Cardinals anyhow; they’re on pace to roughly match last year’s $163MM payroll, and president of baseball ops John Mozeliak had previously indicated the ability to increase payroll. From Miami’s vantage point, their projected $103MM payroll would be the second-highest mark in club history.

The Marlins are known to be seeking improvements to their lineup and have been prioritizing center field and catcher dating back to last offseason. Miami swung a trade for Pittsburgh catcher Jacob Stallings prior to the 2022 season but saw the former Gold Glove winner turn in a disappointing .233/.292/.292 batting line while his typically high-end defensive grades also cratered. Center field remains an unaddressed need, and Miami again appears likely to take someone better suited for a corner (Bryan De La Cruz) and hope for the best this season.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are deep in outfielders with Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar likely lined up left-to-right at the MLB level. (Rosenthal suggests that of the bunch, Nootbaar is the least likely to change hands.) Top prospect Jordan Walker, who’s likely all but off limits in trade talks, looms behind that group. Alec Burleson, meanwhile, has already gotten some MLB experience, and fellow outfielder Moises Gomez posted big numbers in the upper minors. Behind the plate, the Cards have well-regarded catching prospect Ivan Herrera, who doesn’t exactly have a clear path to a regular role now that Willson Contreras has been signed to a five-year deal.

Certainly, the Cards and Marlins seem to have aligning needs that could lead to a trade, but there’s also no indication that talks are particularly heated. Miami has likely discussed its available starters with more than half the league, given the dearth of viable big league options elsewhere on the trade market. Even the Cards and Marlins themselves don’t know whether a deal will ultimately come together at this juncture, but it’s nevertheless of some note that the two parties have at least held some surface-level talks.

Central Notes: O’Neill, Paddack, Madrigal

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Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill missed almost a month in the middle of this season, from mid-June to mid-July, due to a left hamstring strain. He went back on the IL September 17 due to the same injury, a left hamstring strain. At the time, it was reported as a Grade 1 strain, which is the less-serious variety. Regardless, over a week later, an O’Neill return doesn’t seem close.

Team president John Mozeliak was asked about the possibility of O’Neill returning in the postseason and had this to say, per Jim Hayes of Bally Sports Midwest: “I think there’s a shot, but obviously the clock is ticking.” That doesn’t seem to indicate the Cards are banking on a return. The club has now clinched the NL Central but are seven games behind the Mets and Braves, who are tied atop the East, and even further behind the Dodgers. That means they are destined to play in the first round of the playoffs against whoever finishes with the third Wild Card spot. Each round that they survive will increase the chances of O’Neill coming back, but he wouldn’t be able to find a rehab stint with the minor league seasons winding down. Even if he’s healthy, the Cards would have to view a rusty O’Neill as a better option than their current outfielders in order for him to get a shot.

O’Neill had a career year last year by hitting 34 home runs and swiping 15 bases on his way to producing 5.6 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. This year, various injuries have limited him to just 96 games and diminished production when on the field, with his .286/.352/.560 batting line from last year slipping to .228/.308/.392. Without him in the mix, the St. Louis outfield is currently composed of Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson, Corey Dickerson, Juan Yepez, Alec Burleson and Ben DeLuzio.

More notes from the Central divisions…

  • Twins right-hander Chris Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery in May and is now targeting an August 2023 return, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. The surgery usually comes with a 12-18 month recovery window, but this is the second such procedure of Paddack’s career, having previously gone under the knife as a prospect in 2016. Paddack tells Park that the second recovery is going to take a bit longer, meaning the narrow end of the typical recovery window is closed. Since the best-case scenario involves Paddack missing the bulk of next year, the club will have to plan on building a rotation without him. He was just one of several Twins who missed significant time with injury this year, preventing them from hanging onto the AL Central lead that they held for a good chunk of the year. On paper, the 2023 rotation in Minnesota consists of Sonny Gray, who is sure to have his option exercised, alongside Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober for four slots. Kenta Maeda could be a factor for the fifth, though he’ll be an unknown quantity after missing all of this year recovering from his own Tommy John surgery of the internal brace variety. Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer both have options that are unlikely to be exercised, subtracting them from the equation. The club could look for outside help given the uncertainty around Maeda, though they will also have internal options like Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Cole Sands, Jordan Balazovic, Devin Smeltzer and Simeon Woods Richardson, with Paddack hopefully joining them down the stretch.
  • Cubs infielder Nick Madrigal is on the injured list and won’t be returning this season, manager David Ross tells Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. Madrigal landed on the shelf September 10 due to a groin strain, his second groin-related trip to the IL this year. It’s the second straight injury-marred campaign for him, after he was limited to 54 games in 2021 and just 59 here in 2022. He hit .305/.349/.425 last year but saw that line dip to .249/.305/.282 in this campaign. He came into this season with one year and 164 days of MLB service time, meaning he’s a lock to reach arbitration as a Super Two player this winter, though he likely won’t earn a huge raise given all the time he’s missed. The Cubs aren’t likely to be competitive in 2023 but will still want to see Madrigal show better results in order to keep him in their plans going forward.

Cardinals Place Tyler O’Neill On IL With Hamstring Strain

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The Cardinals announced some roster moves prior to today’s doubleheader, with right-hander Dakota Hudson coming up as the “29th man.” Additionally, outfielders Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill are swapping places, with Carlson coming off the IL and O’Neill heading onto it due to a left hamstring strain.

The injury to O’Neill is a bit ominous it was a left hamstring strain that sent him to the IL for about a month earlier this year. An injury of similar severity would keep him out of action until mid-October, but O’Neill seems optimistic that won’t be the case. John Denton of MLB.com relays word from the outfielder that it’s a Grade 1 strain, which is the lesser kind. Perhaps O’Neill can avoid a lengthy absence, though he will miss at least the next ten days. With just over two weeks remaining on the schedule, anything beyond a minimum stint will make it difficult to return during the regular season.

Of course, the Cardinals are a virtual lock to play in the playoffs, since they are 7.5 games ahead of the Brewers in the NL Central. A deep postseason run would give O’Neill more time to return to the field and get back into a groove, though the Cards will likely have to play the first round of the playoffs. This year, the top two division winners get a bye past the Wild Card round, but the Cardinals are well back of the Dodgers and 5.5 games behind the East-leading Mets.

O’Neill’s campaign got off to a rough start, though he righted the ship a bit recently. Before going on the IL in June, he was hitting just .241/.292/.361, but has hit a much better .214/.323/.423 since returning. The combined batting line amounts to a 100 wRC+, exactly league average, though O’Neill has accrued 1.2 wins above replacement thanks to his baserunning and defense, in the eyes of FanGraphs. With O’Neill out, Carlson will step into the outfield mix and try to keep the club from missing a beat. He has also spent some time on the IL this year, going on the shelf once due to a hamstring strain and then a thumb sprain. He’s hitting just a hair above league average overall, as his .240/.316/.386 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 101. Thanks to strong work in center field, he’s produced 2.3 fWAR in 112 games. He will likely get regular work up the middle, flanked by Corey Dickerson and Lars Nootbaar.

Cardinals Notes: O’Neill, Bader, Molina

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The Cardinals activated Corey Dickerson from the 15-day injured list earlier today, but it will still be a while before the St. Louis outfield is back at full strength.  Tyler O’Neill was expected to be reinstated from his own IL stint this weekend, but the Gold Glover (sidelined since June 20 due to a hamstring strain) is now dealing with a bruised right wrist after being hit by a pitch in a minor league rehab game on Wednesday.

“There’s definitely some serious inflammation in there,” O’Neill told reporters, including Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  “At least there was [Thursday] but it’s gone down a good bit.  The next 48 to 72 hours are going to be key for me.”

O’Neill remained in the game after being hit, and while he will undergo more tests on his wrist, initial x-rays were negative.  Even if the wrist problem does end up being relatively minor, it still represents another setback in an injury-plagued year for O’Neill, who has played in only 45 games due to his hamstring injury and a previous shoulder problem that also required a visit to the injured list.  O’Neill has hit only .241/.292/.361 over 185 plate appearances, a big step backwards after his breakout 2021 campaign.

Harrison Bader’s return is also questionable, as manager Oliver Marmol told reporters (including MLB.com’s John Denton) today that Bader likely wouldn’t return from the IL until after the All-Star break.  Bader has already missed more than the minimum 10 days due to plantar fasciitis, and while he is participating in some “light baseball drills,” the outfielder is wearing a protective walking boot when not training.

Bader “needs to be close to it where he feels like he can explode, hold his back side when he’s hitting and not feeling like he’s compromised defensively,” Marmol said.  “The heel is still grabbing at him.  Not nearly as much, but if he ramps up, he might be back at ground zero.”

Without Bader and O’Neill, Dylan Carlson is the only player remaining from the Cardinals’ first-choice starting outfield.  Dickerson’s return will help fill the void, and the emergence of rookies Brendan Donovan and Juan Yepez has allowed the Cards to further make up for those lost regulars.  However, St. Louis was certainly for O’Neill to perhaps help spark a struggling lineup, as the Cardinals have been shut out four times in their past seven games (including today’s 1-0 loss to the Phillies).

Yadier Molina is another missing regular, as the catcher went on the IL due to knee soreness in mid-June.  In the latest update on Molina’s condition, Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including the Belleville News-Democrat’s Jeff Jones) that Molina isn’t yet ready to start baseball activities, though the catcher did say he is making some progress.

Cardinals Notes: O’Neill, Dickerson, Hicks, Thompson

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Tyler O’Neill is back on the injured list, as the club put him on the 10-day IL before this evening’s contest with the Brewers due to a left hamstring strain. Lars Nootbaar was recalled from Triple-A Memphis to take his place on the active roster, while utilityman Brendan Donovan kicked out to left field for tonight’s game.

The team didn’t provide a timetable for O’Neill’s recovery. It’s the latest in what has been a very disappointing season for the slugging outfielder. He lost a couple weeks in May battling a right shoulder impingement, and he’s not been as productive as anticipated even when healthy. Through 185 plate appearances on the season, the 26-year-old (27 on Wednesday) owns a .241/.292/.361 slash with only four home runs. That’s on the heels of a 34-homer campaign, and O’Neill’s had a rather startling dip in batted ball quality (barrel rate, hard contact rate, etc.) to go along with the lesser results.

Donovan figures to step in fairly regularly in left in O’Neill’s absence. The lefty-hitting rookie has a .315/.424/.434 mark through 170 plate appearances. That relatively quiet excellence has earned him a spot in the regular batting order, although manager Oli Marmol has had to shuffle Donovan around the diamond with Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, Tommy Edman and Nolan Arenado serving as the primary infield.

Nootbaar and the righty-hitting Juan Yepez will likely also cycle through the corner outfield and designated hitter. Veteran Corey Dickerson was signed to a one-year deal over the offseason to play a similar role, but he’s been out for a couple weeks with a calf strain. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that Dickerson felt continued discomfort after a rehab appearance in Memphis last Thursday, causing him to transition to non-game activities for a few days. The hope is he could resume the rehab stint as soon as tomorrow.

Dickerson would be joined by Jordan Hicks, who is set to start a rehab assignment of his own there tomorrow (relayed by Katie Woo of the Athletic). Hicks has missed the past three weeks with a forearm strain in his throwing arm, the latest issue for a pitcher who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019 and missed two months with elbow inflammation last season. It’s a welcome development that Hicks is set to return to the mound in relatively short order this time around.

Woo adds that the club is planning to deploy Hicks out of the bullpen. The flamethrowing righty worked exclusively in relief for the first few seasons of his major league career, spending a chunk of the 2018-19 seasons as the club’s closer. He surprisingly lengthened out into a starter this year and cracked the season-opening rotation, making his first seven big league starts (in nine outings) before landing on the IL.

Hicks had a rough showing in that role, though, posting a 5.02 ERA through 28 2/3 innings. He’s struck out a decent 23% of opponents while racking up grounders on more than half the batted balls against him, but he’s also struggled significantly to throw strikes. Hicks walked almost 16% of batters faced, and the club seems set to transition him back to his more familiar relief role.

That could suggest Andre Pallante is ticketed for a longer look in the rotation. The rookie right-hander opened the season in the bullpen, but he’s started three of his four most recent appearances. Pallante, who started in college and in the minor leagues, reached 5 2/3 innings yesterday against the Red Sox — suggesting the Cards are comfortable with him turning lineups over at least twice in an outing.

The rest of the starting staff is established, with Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson and Adam Wainwright making a strong top four. Offseason signee Steven Matz is on the IL with a shoulder injury, but Pallante seems to be settling into the #5 role. Former first-round pick Zack Thompson is also on the active roster and has worked as a starter this season with Memphis, but it appears the club views him as a primary relief option at the major league level for now. Marmol indicated this afternoon that Thompson could see more higher-leverage work moving forward (via John Denton of MLB.com).

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