Tyler O'Neill

NL Central Notes: Minor, Woodruff, Suzuki, Miley, O’Neill

By Mark Polishuk and TC Zencka | May 29, 2022 at 9:44am CDT

Mike Minor is finally set for his 2022 debut, as Reds manager David Bell told reporters that the veteran southpaw is scheduled to start Cincinnati’s game on Friday against the Nationals. Acquired in a trade with the Royals in March, Minor developed some shoulder issues during Spring Training and then had a setback in his rehab process in April. However, with four outings completed in his rehab assignment, Minor is ready to take the hill and participate in what will be his 11th Major League season.

More injury updates from around the NL Central…

Brandon Woodruff left Friday’s game prior to the fifth inning due to right ankle irritation, though both Woodruff and Brewers manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) that the problem may not be serious enough to keep the right-hander from making his next start on Wednesday. With Freddy Peralta already on the injured list and the rotation further stretched by a doubleheader on Monday, losing Woodruff for even one outing would be a setback for the Brewers, though the club obviously isn’t going to risk pushing the right-hander if he isn’t ready.
Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki suffered a sprained left ring finger in Thursday’s game, which kept him out of the lineup yesterday. It isn’t yet clear whether or not Suzuki will require a visit to the 10-day IL, as Suzuki indicated to reporters (including NBC Sports’ Gordon Wittenmyer) that his finger was feeling only a little better. Suzuki has a solid .245/.344/.432 slash line in his first 163 MLB plate appearances, though he has cooled off considerably after a great start.
The Cubs are also monitoring Wade Miley, whose start yesterday was scratched due to shoulder soreness. There is some hope Miley will be able to start one of the games in Monday’s doubleheader, but that will depend on how he fares after a long-toss session today. Miley has only made three starts this season, as some elbow inflammation arose during Spring Training and delayed his Chicago debut until May 10.
Tyler O’Neill received a cortisone shot in his right shoulder after additional testing revealed some fluid buildup, the Cardinals outfielder told reporters (including Jeff Jones of The Belleville News-Democrat). O’Neill has been on the 10-day IL since May 20 due to a shoulder impingement, and after some rest, he hopes to begin a rehab assignment sometime this week. After what appeared to be a breakout 2021 season, O’Neill has slumped out of the gate this year, slashing just .195/.256/.297 over 133 plate appearances.

Cardinals To Promote Nolan Gorman, Matthew Liberatore; Tyler O’Neill To IL

By Anthony Franco | May 19, 2022 at 11:01pm CDT

There’s a momentous roster shakeup in St. Louis, as the Cardinals are set to welcome two of the game’s top prospects to the big leagues in the coming days. As first reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter links), the team has promoted both Nolan Gorman and Matthew Liberatore for this weekend’s series against the Pirates. Katie Woo of the Athletic tweets that outfielder Tyler O’Neill is headed to the 10-day injured list because of a right shoulder impingement in one corresponding roster move.

According to Goold, Gorman will be in tomorrow’s starting lineup at second base. That figures to be his primary role moving forward, with Gold Glove second baseman Tommy Edman kicked to the other side of the bag. Edman has been excellent this season, but the Cards haven’t gotten much production out of their shortstops. Paul DeJong struggled enough the team optioned him to Triple-A Memphis last week, seemingly setting the stage for a forthcoming Gorman promotion.

That’s not to say the Cardinals hastily promoted Gorman to compensate for struggles at the major league level — far from it. The left-handed hitter has forced his way to the majors with an incredible showing in Memphis. Over 147 plate appearances, he’s hitting .308/.367/.677 with an astounding 15 home runs. No other Triple-A batter has more than 13 round-trippers, and only the Cubs’ Robel García has a higher slugging percentage in the International League.

Gorman’s production hasn’t been completely without issue, as he’s gone down on strikes 50 times. That’s a 34% clip, an alarming rate for any minor leaguer considering the higher quality of pitching he’ll face in the majors. Ultimately, however, Gorman’s power production became too much for the St. Louis front office to ignore.

It has been a long-awaited debut for Cardinals fans, who have anticipated Gorman’s arrival since he was selected with the 19th pick in the 2018 draft out of an Arizona high school. Regarded as a power-hitting third baseman as an amateur, he has more or less met those expectations while in the minors. Gorman has consistently posted huge extra-base numbers while running elevated strikeout totals. Prospect evaluators have raised some concerns about the amount of swing-and-miss in his game, but they’ve been unanimously effusive in their praise of his power upside.

Each of FanGraphs, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, Keith Law of the Athletic and Baseball America slotted Gorman among the game’s top 60 prospects this past offseason. (Law and McDaniel both placed him among their top 20). That was before this season’s home run barrage, which only figures to have raised the 22-year-old’s profile even further. Gorman has kicked over to the keystone in the minors with Nolan Arenado entrenched at third base. He’s not regarded as an elite defender and will certainly be a downgrade from Edman there, but the hope is that his offensive capabilities will more than compensate for any issues on the other side of the ball.

Not to be outshined, Gorman’s draft mate will make his major league debut one day later. Liberatore is lined up to start Saturday’s game against the Bucs, manager Oliver Marmol confirmed to reporters (Woo link). The skipper said it’s still to be determined whether there’ll be more than one spot start for the 22-year-old southpaw. Regardless, that Liberatore is now lined up to pitch in the majors suggests he’s firmly on the organizational rotation depth chart.

Liberatore was coincidentally also a first-round draftee out of a Phoenix-area high school the same year as Gorman, and the two have been friends since childhood. Seen as one of the top prep arms in that year’s class, he fell to the Rays at 16th overall because of concerns about his signing bonus — which ultimately checked in just shy of $3.5MM. While Liberatore’s fastball sat in the low-90s, he drew praise for his secondary offerings, particularly a curveball that evaluators consider his best pitch. He pitched well for his first season-plus in the lower levels of the Tampa Bay farm system, then was involved in a January 2020 blockbuster that sent Randy Arozarena back to Tampa Bay.

The cancelation of the 2020 minor league season kept Liberatore from making his official Cardinals debut until last year. The organization pushed him straight to Memphis for his age-21 campaign and he held his own, tossing 124 2/3 innings of 4.04 ERA ball with a solid 23.7% strikeout rate and an excellent 6.3% walk percentage. St. Louis assigned him back there to open this season, and he’s made strides from a swing-and-miss perspective. Liberatore’s ERA and walk rate are right in line with his 2021 marks, but he’s improved his strikeout rate by almost five points through his first seven starts.

Liberatore is also regarded by most evaluators as one of the top 100 minor league talents. He’s not seen as a future ace, but between his excellent control and well-rounded arsenal, he’s unanimously viewed as a possible rotation stalwart. Whether the Cardinals plug him into that role immediately isn’t clear, but it seems likely he’ll be taking the ball every fifth day in St. Louis before long.

Neither Gorman nor Liberatore will accrue enough major league service time this year to reach the one-year threshold. Even if both players are in the majors for good, neither will be eligible for free agency until after the 2028 campaign at the earliest. Both players are in good position to reach early arbitration as Super Two qualifiers after the 2024 season, although that’s contingent on sticking in the big leagues from here on out. In Liberatore’s case, in particular, it seems future optional assignments are still a possibility.

The Cards have Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz, Dakota Hudson, Miles Mikolas and Jordan Hicks as their primary starting five at the moment. Wainwright and Mikolas have been excellent. Matz has struggled but isn’t going to be bumped from the rotation two months into a four-year contract. Hudson doesn’t have great strikeout and walk marks, but he’s riding his typically elite ground-ball production to decent results. That’s more or less also true of Hicks, who has lengthened out into the rotation after a few years as a high-leverage bullpen arm.

Of course, St. Louis has been without arguably their best pitcher for the entire season. Jack Flaherty hasn’t thrown a pitch because of a shoulder issue that required a platelet-rich plasma injection. He’s been on the 10-day injured list all year, and the club announced that he’s been transferred to the 60-day IL to clear space for Gorman on the 40-man roster.

That’s merely a procedural move that keeps Flaherty out for two months from Opening Day. The 26-year-old has yet to embark on a minor league rehab assignment and surely wouldn’t have been ready to make an MLB return before the first week of June anyhow. Flaherty has recently progressed to throwing bullpen sessions, so it seems reasonable he could head out into minor league games within a few weeks.

The club will also need to create a spot on the 40-man roster for Liberatore, with that transaction set to occur before Saturday’s contest. Aside from Flaherty, St. Louis doesn’t have any obvious candidates for a 60-day IL transfer, so it seems likely someone will be designated for assignment within the next two days.

The only disappointing aspect of today’s news is that O’Neill is headed to the IL. He’s missed the past couple days battling the shoulder discomfort that will now cost him at least a week and a half. The team hasn’t provided an indication whether he’s facing an absence longer than the minimal stint.

So continues a rough start to the year for O’Neill, who is just a season removed from an eighth-place finish in NL MVP voting. The 26-year-old has hit just .195/.256/.297 with a pair of home runs across 133 plate appearances, nowhere near the 34-homer output he put forth last season. O’Neill, who also lost his arbitration hearing last week, will try to get back on track whenever he’s healthy enough to make his return.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cardinals Defeat Tyler O’Neill In Arbitration

By Anthony Franco | May 11, 2022 at 12:18pm CDT

The Cardinals have won their arbitration hearing with outfielder Tyler O’Neill, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (on Twitter). He’ll take home a $3.4MM salary in 2022; O’Neill had filed at $4.15MM.

This was O’Neill’s first of three trips trough the arbitration process. He’s on track to reach free agency after the 2024 campaign. Future arbitration salaries are based on the platforms established in previous years, so the slugger will be working from a lower baseline than if he’d won the hearing. The Cards and his representatives at the Boras Corporation had been discussing a potential long-term deal that could’ve avoided the process entirely, but the sides obviously didn’t come to an agreement. With the hearing now in the rearview mirror, it seems talks about a multi-year pact will be put on hold — at least until next offseason.

O’Neill told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch last week the process was “definitely something that I am ready to have completed” but denied that its lingering into the season was having any effect on his performance. The 26-year-old is off to a rough start, hitting .198/.267/.317 with just a pair of home runs in his first 116 plate appearances.

Arbitration hearings are typically conducted over the offseason, but the unresolved cases were pushed into the season after the lockout halted winter dealings for more than three months. Arbitrators’ decisions are to be based solely off a player’s body of work up through 2021, so O’Neill’s slow start should not have been a factor in the result.

Cardinals Discussing Multi-Year Extension With Tyler O’Neill

By Mark Polishuk | April 14, 2022 at 2:26pm CDT

Tyler O’Neill is the Cardinals’ only arbitration-eligible player who has yet to reach an agreement for the 2022 season, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports (Twitter link) that O’Neill’s arb hearing will take place in the first week of May. However, the possibility exists that the hearing could be avoided, as the two sides are still in talks about a multi-year extension.

It was less than two weeks ago that the Cardinals reached an extension with another outfielder, as Harrison Bader inked a two-year, $10.4MM deal that also allowed both sides to sidestep an arbitration hearing. Bader’s deal covered his final two years of arbitration eligibility, whereas O’Neill is only in the first of three arb-eligible years. It isn’t known whether or not the negotiations are centered around a two- or three-year pact to just address O’Neill’s arbitration years, or if perhaps a longer-term contract could be under discussion.

The Cardinals have been proactive in extending building-block players over the years, and O’Neill’s 2021 breakout makes a good case that he is worth such a long-term extension. O’Neill hit .286/.352/.560 with 34 home runs over 537 plate appearances last season, translating to a whopping 144 wRC+ and 150 OPS+. Between that offensive pop, plus baserunning (O’Neill stole 15 bases in 19 attempts), and his second consecutive Gold Glove in left field, O’Neill was somewhat quietly one of baseball’s best all-around players, and only 12 players topped O’Neill’s 5.4 fWAR in 2021.

This big season didn’t exactly come out of nowhere, as O’Neill was a top-100 ranked prospect. However, he had hit a far more modest .229/.291/.422 in 450 big league PA prior to the 2021 season, and strikeouts have been a continual problem for the Canadian slugger. O’Neill posted a 31.3% strikeout rate in 2021, putting him in the fourth percentile of all players according to Statcast.

With this in mind, St. Louis could opt to just explore a shorter-term extension for now, in order to gain cost certainty over at least one more of O’Neill’s arbitration years but still coming short of a lengthy commitment. As noted, this is only O’Neill’s first trip through the arb process, and since he isn’t scheduled to hit free agency until after the 2024 season, the Cardinals may not feel an immediate rush to work out a big extension. O’Neill is looking for a $4.15MM salary in 2022, while the team submitted a $3.4MM figure. (MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected O’Neill to land $3.5MM.)

Cardinals, Harrison Bader Avoid Arbitration With Two-Year Extension

By Mark Polishuk | April 2, 2022 at 3:29pm CDT

The Cardinals and outfielder Harrison Bader have agreed to a two-year, $10.4MM contract extension, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (all Twitter links). The deal will cover Bader’s final two years of salary arbitration eligibility, and he’ll now receive a $1MM signing bonus up front, and $4.7MM salaries in both 2022 and 2023. Up to $2.25MM in incentive clauses can also be earned for the 2023 season, based on plate appearances or games-played thresholds. Bader is represented by Vayner Sports.

There was a sizable gap between Bader and the Cardinals when the two sides submitted their arbitration figures, as Bader was looking for $4.8MM and the team countered with a $3.8MM number. (Both figures were higher than the $3.7MM that MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected for Bader’s 2022 salary.) The extension now means that a hearing is no longer necessary, and Bader’s arbitration process can be sidestepped entirely next winter.

It’s a nice payday for Bader, who has gone from being a backup outfielder to something of an under-the-radar five-tool talent. There was never any question about Bader’s defense, and his excellent center field glovework was recognized with his first Gold Glove Award in 2021. Bader is also a strong baserunner and could hit left-handed pitching, but questions persisted as to whether or not he could produce against right-handers.

Bader answered the critics last season, batting .273/.331/.458 with 12 homers over 326 PA against righties. Oddly, this slash line actually topped his numbers against southpaws, yet the sum total was still a .267/.324/.460 slash and 16 homers over 401 plate appearances (110 wRC+, 116 OPS+). Between this above-average offense and great defense, Bader was a 3.4 fWAR player in only 103 games, as he missed almost two full months of the season with forearm and rib injuries.

This isn’t to say that Bader is necessarily a finished product at the plate, as he had subpar hard-contact numbers and didn’t generate many walks last season. His .331 wOBA was also far higher than his .295 xwOBA, so there was certainly some good fortune at play. Still, even if Bader’s offense takes a step backwards, his defense is alone good enough to merit at least a part-time outfield role.

Between Bader in center, fellow Gold Glover Tyler O’Neill in left field, and star prospect-turned-breakout player Dylan Carlson in right field, St. Louis has one of baseball’s best young outfields, and this trio was a major reason why the Cardinals pulled off a late-season surge to make the playoffs. The Cards augmented this group of right-handed hitters with lefty-swinging Corey Dickerson this winter, plus Lars Nootbaar and the versatile Tommy Edman will be getting some time on the grass.

The Bader extension takes care of one of the Cards’ two outstanding arb cases, as O’Neill has also yet to agree on his deal for the 2022 season. However, MLB.com’s John Denton hears from a source that “progress is being made” toward an agreement with O’Neill.

NL Injury Notes: Diamondbacks, Gallen, Cardinals, O’Neill

By TC Zencka | July 3, 2021 at 8:14am CDT

It’s Saturday morning, which means it’s time to check in on a couple of potentially consequential injures from yesterday’s ballgames…

Zac Gallen was removed from yesterday’s start due with what the Diamondbacks described as right hamstring tightness. He’ll have an MRI done today. The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan provides video of the pitch that took Gallen out of the game. It’s yet another setback for Gallen in what was supposed to be a breakout season. He missed the beginning of the season with a hairline fracture in his forearm, then went back on the injured list for another 39 days with an elbow sprain. Speculatively speaking, another IL stint appears likely here. Especially given the state of Arizona’s season, they are likely to be cautious with Gallen. When has has been healthy, he’s been effective, making eight starts with a 3.69 ERA/3.75 FIP in 72 innings with a strong 27.3 percent strikeout rate, slightly high 10.7 percent walk rate, and 44.6 percent groundball rate.
Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill appeared to take a fastball off the wrist yesterday, per MLB.com’s Zachary Silver (via Twitter). Upon further review, O’Neill was clipped in the right pinky, though he did leave the ballgame. The team is optimistic, though he will undergo further testing today, per The Athletic’s Katie Woo (via Twitter). A Gold Glove Award winner in 2020, O’Neill’s bat has caught up to his glove this season as he’s slashed .276/.329/.558 with 15 home runs in 237 plate appearances. The Cardinals have struggled to get the most out of their outfielders, ranking 22nd in the game by measure of fWAR with 2.6, with O’Neill himself adding 2.1 fWAR. Harrison Bader is recently returned from injury, but losing O’Neill would be a blow. In the short term, Tommy Edman will shift to the outfield, though if O’Neill ends up on the injured list, St. Louis would likely call-up another outfielder.

Cardinals Notes: Molina, O’Neill, Carpenter

By Mark Polishuk | April 24, 2021 at 9:25am CDT

Yadier Molina left Friday night’s game due to right foot soreness, after appearing to hurt his foot on a swing during a fifth-inning at-bat. Molina struck out on the wayward swing, and was replaced by Andrew Knizner at catcher in the top of the sixth. Molina will undergo testing to determine the extent of the injury, and any sort of absence would represent a big loss to the St. Louis lineup. Over his first 68 plate appearances, Molina is hitting a scorching .339/.382/.661 with five home runs, with a 180 OPS+ that ranks tied for 14th among all qualified batters in the majors. While this level of offensive production wasn’t expected to continue, it was at least a good sign that Molina was bouncing back from a pair of subpar years at the plate.

Cardinals Place Tyler O’Neill On 10-Day Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | April 11, 2021 at 11:15am CDT

The Cardinals have placed outfielder Tyler O’Neill on the 10-day IL due to a right groin strain, the team announced. Since righty Jake Woodford was optioned to the alternate training site after yesterday’s game, the two open roster spots were filled by outfielder Lane Thomas and right-hander Johan Oviedo.

O’Neill suffered the injury during an at-bat in yesterday’s 9-5 loss to the Brewers, coming out of the batter’s box moving slowly after hitting a grounder. He was replaced in the field the next inning. Manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that O’Neill might only be out for the minimum 10 days, saying that the young outfielder received “Favorable news from an imaging standpoint….Probably a three to four day (situation) before he can get in there. We didn’t want to play short for three or four days.”

The IL stint could possibly act as something of a reset for O’Neill, who has hit only .143/.172/.286 with a league-high 14 strikeouts over his first 29 plate appearances of the 2021 season. Strikeouts have been a persistent issue during O’Neill’s four MLB seasons, and his overall production at the plate has trailed off considerably since a promising 2018 rookie season. On the plus side, O’Neill won a Gold Glove for his defensive work as the Cardinals’ regular left fielder in 2020.

O’Neill joins Harrison Bader on the 10-day IL, leaving the Cards even more short-handed in the outfield. A veteran of 52 Major League games, Thomas will join the mix along with Dylan Carlson, Justin Williams, Austin Dean, and utilityman Tommy Edman (when Edman isn’t at second base). Minor league signing Matt Szczur is also on hand at the team’s alternate training site.

An Unpopular Trade Paying Off In Seattle

By Steve Adams | May 19, 2020 at 7:45pm CDT

The Mariners’ rebuild began in earnest following a disappointing finish to the 2018 season, when GM Jerry Dipoto first began talk of re-imagining his roster. The M’s have added a bevy of prospects since that time, highlighted by Jarred Kelenic and Justus Sheffield, but one of their most important long-term pieces was acquired on July 21 in 2017, when the club was still aiming for immediate contention.

That day saw Seattle trade slugging minor league outfielder Tyler O’Neill to the Cardinals in exchange for left-hander Marco Gonzales. The now-28-year-old Gonzales has become a fixture in the rotation, but the trade wasn’t exactly well-received among M’s fans at the time. The club was below .500 but just 1.5 games back from a Wild Card spot at the time of the swap. Dipoto had been trying to acquire young pitching, hoping to add to his core while also remaining competitive in a top-heavy American League. (The 85-win Twins claimed the league’s second Wild Card position that year.)

The consensus among Mariners fans at the time of the swap was, essentially, “Why would they do this?” Social media reactions to the deal weren’t favorable, and looking through the comments on the trade’s writeup at MLBTR, FanGraphs or most other sites reveals a similarly perplexed set of replies. O’Neill had entered that year as one of the game’s 100 best prospects and the second-best in the Mariners organization, while Gonzales had made just one appearance in the Majors since returning from 2016 Tommy John surgery. He was having a nice season in Triple-A, but most scouting reports on him pegged Gonzales as a mid-rotation arm, at best. In addition to that Tommy John surgery, he battled shoulder troubles in 2015.

Injury risk or not, Dipoto was undeterred. The Mariners’ GM spoke the day before the trade about only being willing to deal from his premium prospects if it meant acquiring a long-term rotation piece, and days after the swap he called Gonzales “about as big-league-ready as a Triple-A pitcher could be.” Sure enough, Gonzales was in the big leagues less than three weeks later.

The initial results did little to assuage the concerns of Seattle fans. Gonzales pitched just 36 2/3 innings of 5.40 ERA ball down the stretch as the Mariners again fell shy of the postseason. O’Neill hit .253/.304/.548 with a dozen homers in 37 Triple-A games following the trade that year. On-base questions notwithstanding, the power was still impressive and Mariners fans were skeptical of the lefty for whom O’Neill had been shipped out.

Despite that lackluster showing, Gonzales opened the 2018 season in the Seattle starting five. His early work didn’t inspire much confidence, but after four shaky starts, Gonzales settled into a groove and pitched to a 3.60 ERA over his final 150 innings, averaging 7.6 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 along the way. In 2019, Gonzales posted a 3.99 ERA that was nearly identical to his 4.00 ERA from 2018 — but he did it in a larger sample of 203 frames.

Setting aside his rocky debut in 2018, Gonzales has given the Mariners 369 2/3 frames of 3.99 ERA ball with an even better 3.83 FIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.97 HR/9 and a 42.5 percent ground-ball rate. From 2018-19, he was worth 6.0 bWAR and 7.1 fWAR. The rebuilding Mariners made clear that they view Gonzales as a core piece back in February, signing the southpaw to a four-year, $30MM contract extension (2021-24) that also contains a $15MM club option for the 2025 season.

The trade would likely look like a solid one for the Mariners even if O’Neill had blossomed into an everyday corner outfielder. That hasn’t happened yet, however. While Gonzales was solidifying himself in the Mariners’ rotation, O’Neill was bouncing back and forth between Triple-A and St. Louis, hitting a combined .258/.307/.454 with 14 home runs in 293 plate appearances. The power has been good but not elite, and O’Neill’s contact struggles have indeed been magnified against MLB pitching; he’s punched out 110 times in those 293 plate appearances (37.5 percent).

To be fair to O’Neill, he hasn’t exactly been given a real opportunity to win an everyday job. Just months after he was traded to St. Louis, the Cardinals went out and acquired two years of control over Marcell Ozuna in a trade that sent Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen and Magneuris Sierra to the Marlins. With Ozuna, Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham (in 2018) and Harrison Bader all logging considerable time in the St. Louis outfield, opportunities for O’Neill have been sparse. But the very fact that the Cards felt it necessary to pursue a Giancarlo Stanton acquisition and then pull off a deal for Ozuna speaks to some level of question in O’Neill’s readiness.

The Cards didn’t add a left fielder to replace the departing Ozuna this winter, but they also have uber-prospect Dylan Carlson nearing the Majors. Even if Carlson seizes an outfield spot, the likely implementation of the universal DH will give O’Neill some additional opportunities to get into the lineup, so perhaps he’ll finally get the chance to justify the deal from the St. Louis end. The Cards haven’t exactly been hurting for pitching even without Gonzales in the fold, but there’s no denying he’s been the more valuable piece of the straight-up swap to this point.

The Gonzales/O’Neill trade won’t be looked back upon as any time of blockbuster, but it offers some reminders when judging future trades:

Prospect rankings are useful and entertaining, but it’s easy to overemphasize them. Prospect values are in a constant state of flux. Even a few weeks and certainly a couple months can change the opinion on a prospect. Whether it’s adding a new pitch, adding/losing velocity, outgrowing a position, altering mechanics at the plate or any number of other changes a player can exhibit, a prospect’s value can alter in a hurry.
It’s too easy to write off post-hype prospects. Gonzales himself was a first-round pick and top-100 prospect prior to injury troubles. At the time of the O’Neill trade, he was less than two years removed from ranking as the game’s No. 50 prospect, per Baseball America. A recent top prospect with some big league experience and four to five years of control is generally still a valuable piece even if he’s not a star. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently looked at another player fitting this mold: Pittsburgh’s Joe Musgrove.
Position scarcity matters. We’ve seen corner outfielders and first baseman go for smaller returns on the trade market and in free agency in recent seasons. Part of the Mariners’ calculus was surely that a corner outfielder with some on-base questions was easier to come by than an affordable mid-rotation starter, even if the latter carried considerably more risk.

In some regards, the end result of this trade is common. “Team gets one of its best pitchers by trading away key prospect” is hardly a unique storyline in baseball, but the manner in which the Mariners went about this particular instance of that narrative isn’t typical. The result speaks for itself right now, though. And while O’Neill can still change how we look at the deal in the long run, it’s worked out about as well as the Mariners could’ve hoped.

The Cardinals’ Blocked Prospects

By Steve Adams | April 9, 2020 at 10:40am CDT

The Cardinals haven’t had a losing record since 2007. Despite a recent playoff “drought” — a three-year stretch from 2016-18 that only qualifies as such by the St. Louis organization’s lofty standards — the Cards have run out a solid roster on an annual basis. Riding a blend of productive veterans, high-end prospects who emerge as key contributors and what seems like an out-of-nowhere success story or two every year (we see you, Tommy Edman), the Cardinals have established themselves among MLB’s more consistent franchises.

And while their strong track record in player development allows them to continually filter up quality young players to complement the veterans on the roster, it also inevitably leaves some talented players on the outside looking in. Because they’ve been able to develop so many quality youngsters, the Cards simply don’t have the space to play them all. (That’s a partial driver behind the outfield carousel they’ve experienced in recent years — though certainly not the only factor.)

Just look at some of the young players the Cardinals have traded away prior to 2019 while still managing to field competitive rosters:

Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver — traded to D-backs in the Paul Goldschmidt deal
Tommy Pham — traded to Rays in return for Genesis Cabrera, Justin Williams and Roel Ramirez
Oscar Mercado — traded to the Indians in exchange for Conner Capel and Jhon Torres
Luke Voit — traded to the Yankees in the deal that brought Giovanny Gallegos to St. Louis
Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen — traded to the Marlins in the Marcell Ozuna deal
Marco Gonzales — traded to the Mariners in return for Tyler O’Neill
Randal Grichuk — traded to the Blue Jays in return for Dominic Leone and Conner Greene

That’s nine big league regulars/rotation pieces shipped out — in some cases, for disappointing returns — without causing the final on-field product to dip below .500. It’s a testament to the Cardinals’ amateur scouting and player development staffs that they’re so regularly deep with talent that they’re able to ship it off for veterans, potential areas of need or larger quantities of further-off talent. Certainly, not all of those swaps have worked out — Mercado or Pham would look nice in the outfield right now — but the Cardinals have rarely come up completely empty-handed on a deal.

Trades of this nature have become the norm for the Cards, and it’s likely that will continue to be the case. With Yadier Molina reportedly talking extension prior to the shutdown and Paul Goldschmidt signed five more years, for instance, the Cards look to have a pair of roadblocks to some more young talent. The outfield, too, has more names than playing time available. It seems likely that we’ll see more young players change hands as a result in the next calendar year, so let’s run through some possibilities.

Catcher

If a Molina extension does indeed come together, that doesn’t leave much of a path to regular playing time for 25-year-old Andrew Knizner — a fairly well-regarded backstop whose bat looks close to big league ready. In 83 games and 341 plate appearances in Triple-A, Knizner is a .283/.362/.453 hitter with an 8.2 percent walk rate and just a 13.1 percent strikeout rate. Scouting reports on Knizner question his receiving and framing skills, but he notched a 42 percent caught-stealing rate with Triple-A Memphis in 2019.

If Knizner does indeed change hands following a Molina extension — the Cards brought Matt Wieters back to serve as his backup again — then perhaps 19-year-old Ivan Herrera will emerge as the true heir-apparent to Molina and his Hall of Fame legacy.

First Base

Luken Baker isn’t an elite prospect — few first-base-only prospects are considered as such — but FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen put a 70 grade on his raw power in this year’s scouting report on the hulking 6’4″, 265-pound slugger in the making. Baker hasn’t tapped into that power just yet, though he spent the 2019 season in a pitcher-friendly Florida State League (Class-A Advanced). He’s managed his strikeouts to this point (21.6 percent) and also walked in 10.5 percent of his plate appearances. With Goldschmidt entrenched at first base through 2024, there’s no hope of Baker emerging as a regular in the near future, which seemingly puts him on a similar track to Voit.

Elsewhere on the roster, 27-year-old Rangel Ravelo (28 later this month) is out of minor league options and limited to a bench role. A career .293/.369/.452 hitter in 1652 Triple-A plate appearances who also slashed .310/.385/.473 in 649 Double-A plate appearances, Ravelo has done enough in the minors to suggest that he could hit in the big leagues. He’s played a little corner outfield, so perhaps the Cards view him as a replacement for the recently traded Jose Martinez. However, it’s possible that another club could view him as a potential late-blooming regular at first base.

The Outfield

The Dexter Fowler signing clearly hasn’t panned out as hoped, but the switch-hitting veteran’s five-year, $82.5MM deal runs through the 2021 season. Had the 2019 campaign been as much of a struggle as his 2018 season, he’d perhaps be a release candidate, but Fowler’s bat bounced back to roughly league-average levels last year (103 wRC+, 98 OPS+), and his contract should grant him a decent leash.

Harrison Bader was one of the game’s best defenders in center (14 Defensive Runs Saved, 12.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, 13 Outs Above Average), so he’s probably locked into center field despite a rough sophomore showing at the dish (.205/.314/.366).

Left field was to be determined in camp, with the likes of Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, Justin Williams and waiver claim Austin Dean vying for playing time. Carlson ranks among baseball’s elite overall prospects and should be installed as a regular at some point in 2020 (assuming a season is played). Even in the unlikely event that the club quickly moves on from Fowler, there’d be O’Neill, Thomas and Williams left to compete for that theoretical spot.

O’Neill was a ballyhooed prospect himself when acquired from Seattle, and though strikeouts have been an issue, he’s a passable corner defender with light-tower power and a history of drawing walks in the upper minors. Thomas can play a solid center field and owns a career .270/.342/.472 slash through 444 plate appearances in Triple-A. Williams is a corner bat who draws good marks for his raw power. He’s yet to show off that power in the minors, but FanGraphs points to his high-end exit velocity as a source of optimism if he can add more lift to his swing.

—

Most organizations would love to have the “more talent than playing time” issue on the big league roster — and you certainly won’t head president of baseball ops John Mozeliak or GM Mike Girsch complain about the reality. But that duo and the rest of the Cards’ front office figure to continue to find creative ways to deal with those surpluses, and it shouldn’t come as a big surprise if some of the above names finally get their chance at playing time in another organization,

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