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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

AL East Notes: Jays, Yelich, Guerrero, Schoop, O’s, Yankees, Sox, JDM

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The Blue Jays were “the only other team that came close” to acquiring Christian Yelich from the Marlins before the outfielder was dealt to the Brewers, SiriusXM’s Craig Mish reports (Twitter links).  “Several variations” of trade packages were discussed between the Jays and Marlins, including some deals that would’ve seen Toronto take some extra money off Miami’s payroll.  What ended talks between the two sides was the Jays’ refusal to deal Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  It was no secret that the Marlins were demanding a big return for Yelich, and it also isn’t surprising that the Jays balked at moving Guerrero, one of baseball’s very best prospects.

Here are more rumblings from around the AL East…

  • Despite “a significant reduction in the gap between” the arbitration numbers filed by the Orioles and Jonathan Schoop, “the level of frustration on both sides is growing” as a deal still isn’t close, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes.  In what could be a related story, Schoop didn’t attend the Orioles’ FanFest this weekend, which left manager Buck Showalter “disappointed,” implying that Schoop’s agent advised the second baseman to skip the event (as per Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun and other reporters).  Schoop filed for a $9MM salary while the Orioles filed at $7.5MM.  Kevin Gausman’s arbitration case has also yet to be settled, though Kubatko hears that the O’s will continue to talk to both Gausman and Schoop in the hopes of avoiding a hearing.
  • The Yankees have roughly $10-$15MM ticketed to spend on a starting pitcher or an infielder who can play second base and/or third base, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes.  If everything breaks right for the Yankees in regards to the slow free agent market, they could fill both needs with those funds.  With the club intent on staying under the $197MM luxury tax threshold, that $10-$15MM will leave the Yankees with around $15-20MM on other potential expenses (i.e. contract bonuses, in-season callups or midseason trade acquisitions).  Adding a second baseman would provide depth if Gleyber Torres needs more minor league time as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and Sherman notes that delaying Torres’ debut would help the Yankees gain an extra year of team control over the star infield prospect.
  • With Lorenzo Cain landing a five-year commitment from the Brewers, the Boston Herald’s Michael Silverman believes that the Red Sox may be forced to offer J.D. Martinez more than the five-year deal they reportedly have on the table for the free agent outfielder.  Martinez is two years younger than Cain and can be signed without draft pick compensation, which could go towards enhancing Scott Boras’ argument that Martinez should receive at least a six-year deal.

AL East Notes: Stanton, Frazier, Andujar, JDM, Givens, Blue Jays

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While the Yankees were assuredly disheartened upon being informed that they were not a finalist for Shohei Ohtani, that information looks to have largely paved the way for New York’s blockbuster acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton. Yankees GM Brian Cashman joined Jim Bowden and Craig Mish on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today and discussed his club’s pursuit of both Ohtani and Stanton (Twitter link with audio). As Cashman explains, had the Yankees been among the finalists for Ohtani, or even signed him, they’d have been committed to keeping the DH spot largely open in order to accommodate Ohtani’s desire to both pitch and hit. However, being informed that they were out of the Ohtani sweepstakes fairly early in the process allowed Cashman and his staff to pivot and re-engage the Marlins on Stanton. New York and Miami had talked in the previous month, per Cashman, and negotiations quickly became serious once the Yankees knew they could use the DH spot that had been earmarked for Ohtani to rotate Stanton, Aaron Judge and others.

Elsewhere in the AL East…

  • In that same appearance, Cashman also spoke about the possibility of Stanton and Judge seeing time in left field as well as trade interest in prospects Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier (both links via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). Hoch notes that the DH spot is a more likely avenue to get both Judge and Stanton into the same lineup, though Cashman said that both players have expressed a willingness and level of excitement regarding the possibility of playing the opposite outfield corner. Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks figure to line up regularly in left field and center field for the Yankees, but it seems that there’ll be days when one of the two slugging career-long right fielders could see time in left. As for Andujar and Frazier, Cashman spoke highly of both and acknowledged the possibility of a trade, though he also said he could hang onto both young players. Cashman calls Frazier a “very valuable, attractive asset” not only to the Yankees but to other teams and later adds that Andujar is “…a very exciting talent — one that’s being insisted upon, it seems like, in every conversation I’m having with anything that’s high-end out there.”
  • Red Sox ownership has given president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski more autonomy than his predecessors received, writes Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston, and it’s been Dombrowski who has primarily driven the Red Sox’ pursuit of J.D. Martinez. Drellich wonders if now is the time for Dombrowski and owner John Henry to begin showing this type of restraint — Boston has reportedly offered Martinez five years but drawn a line there — as New York and Los Angeles both loom as potential big spenders again next offseason. Drellich also takes a look at Dombrowski’s history of splashy moves (some of his own volition and some driven by late Tigers owner Mike Ilitch during Dombrowski’s days in Detroit) as well as his reputation as an executive that is, at times, willing to overpay on the free-agent and trade markets.
  • Right-hander Mychal Givens drew persistent trade interest at the Winter Meetings, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, but he’s among the players that the Orioles consider to be untouchable. With Zach Britton on the shelf due to a ruptured Achilles tendon, many are expecting Brad Brach to step into the closer’s role, though Kubatko writes that manager Buck Showalter isn’t anointing anyone. Rather, Showalter believes that in Givens, Brach, Darren O’Day and lefty Richard Bleier, he has a number of weapons that can help lock down games, depending on the situation. “In a perfect world you’d be able to spread it around, but I’m not there yet,” says Showalter. “…But I’m confident that we have more than one person capable of doing a good job with it. To think you’re going to have somebody to do it at the level that [Britton] did it, that’s historic. There’s not a guy out there like that.”
  • Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins said in an appearance on Sportsnet 590 that his club does indeed have interest in Marlins star Christian Yelich, though he cautioned that virtually every team in baseball is in that boat as well (link via Sportsnet’s Michael Hoad). Atkins again voiced a desire to strengthen both his outfield and his pitching staff, though he acknowledged that the outfield is a greater need. The Jays, Atkins added, are heartened by the fact that they have both payroll capacity (a reported $20MM or so in 2018 space) and a strong farm system that allows them to trade. Certainly, the Marlins would be keen on top-tier talents like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette if they were to seriously entertain parting with Yelich. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets that Atkins addressed the theoretical notion of moving those elite prospects, saying they’d only be available were the Jays to acquire a “young, controllable player that we feel could be as talented or more as those two players.” While Yelich arguably fits that description, Nicholson-Smith notes that it still seems likely that the Jays will hang onto both players.

East Notes: Denbo, Hicks/Ellsbury, Vlad Jr., Red Sox

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Tim Healey of the Sun-Sentinel takes a look at Derek Jeter’s first hire in Miami: former Yankees executive Gary Denbo. The Marlins’ new player development and scouting guru is known for working hard to make something out of all of the players in farm system. His attention to detail and willingness to grind could pay dividends for a club that will need to grow quite a lot of talent to make up for what is initially projected to be quite a low payroll.

Here’s more from the eastern divisions:

  • Of course, sometimes finding value in players that didn’t quite pan out for other organizations can deliver huge dividends. That has been the case for the Yankees and Aaron Hicks, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Indeed, he seems now to have displaced Jacoby Ellsbury in center — so much so that Sherman expects the Yanks to “tell teams in the offseason to make their best offer on the veteran.” The article goes on to discuss what kind of trade situations might make sense for Ellsbury, who does have quite a bit of salary left to go as well as no-trade protection.
  • Top Blue Jays prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is tackling some goals and having fun at the Dominican winter league, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca writes. In particular, the young phenom has been tasked with expanding his range and improving his footwork at the hot corner. It seems that Toronto is interested, too, in exposing Guerrero to the bright lights and relatively high stakes of playing against strong competition in his home nation.
  • After interviewing Ron Gardenhire today, the Red Sox are “still deciding” whether to sit down with any other candidates, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski informs Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald (via Twitter). Alex Cora and Brad Ausmus are the other two names under consideration at present. You can catch up on prior developments in the search right here.

Starlin Castro, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hire Magnus Sports

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Yankees second baseman Starlin Castro has changed agents, moving his representation to Barry Praver of Magnus Sports, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Also making the switch is top Blue Jays prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

In Castro’s case, he likely won’t be up for any contract negotiations for a few more years — unless the Yankees were to entertain thoughts of an extension. Though Castro is still just 27 and has been quite productive (.307/.344/.472) this year, that’d be a surprise. After all, his current deal takes him through 2019 and includes a club option for the following season.

As for Guerrero, who’s still just 18, his star is clearly on the rise as he mashes in the lower minors. He isn’t on the MLB radar yet, but has already gained top-twenty leaguewide prospect billing and could move quickly through the Toronto system.

It’s important to bear in mind that players change representation for many possible reasons. And even if contract talks aren’t a near-term concern, marketing deals are always a consideration.

If you’re interested in seeing more agent-player relationships, MLBTR maintains a sortable database of the latest representation information as an industry resource.

Quick Hits: Dodgers, Klentak, Vlad Jr., D’Backs

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More and more teams are adopting the formula of hiring an Ivy League-educated, analytics-based GM and/or a veteran player as manager despite little or no coaching experience, a trend FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal finds a bit troubling.  A specific hiring model may make it harder for minorities to make inroads into front office or managerial positions.  Teams that rely too much on analytics could run into as many problems as front offices that are too “old-school,” while Rosenthal notes that several long-time coaches or managers may now find themselves frozen out of the job market simply because they’re not fresh faces.

Here’s some more from around baseball as we head into World Series week…

  • While the Dodgers have some weak spots on their roster, ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider link) argues that there is no need for the club to step back for a mini-rebuilding year in 2016.  Los Angeles has won three straight NL West titles despite those flaws and has an ownership willing to spend record amounts, so Olney feels there’s no reason to waste a year of Clayton Kershaw’s prime to retool.
  • New Phillies GM Matt Klentak is profiled by Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News, who speaks to Klentak’s old Dartmouth coach (Bob Whalen) and his old Angels colleague, director of baseball operations Justin Hollander.
  • The Blue Jays expended quite a bit of their prospect capital in making the trades that helped them win the AL East, though GM Alex Anthopoulos tells Baseball America’s Alexis Brudnicki that he feels the farm system has already been replenished by new talent that has emerged.  International signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one of the most-touted new prospects in the system, and Anthopoulos notes that Guerrero has been working out at third base, a bit of a surprise since most pundits felt Guerrero’s body type would eventually see him in a corner outfield/first base/DH role down the road.
  • The Diamondbacks have interviewed at least eight candidates in their search for a new pitching coach, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports.  The list includes each of the pitching coaches from their full-season minor league affiliates, Yankees minor league pitching coordinator Gil Patterson and Athletics minor league pitching coordinator Garvin Alston.  Piecoro isn’t sure if the D’Backs will look at any of the available veteran pitching coaches on the market, such as Mike Maddux or Rick Honeycutt.

Blue Jays To Sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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1:04pm: Guerrero will receive a $3.9MM bonus, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com tweets.

10:18am: The Blue Jays have reached agreement with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ben Badler of Baseball America reports on Twitter. Guerrero, son of the famed big leaguer of the same name, was the first overall international prospect on BA’s pre-July 2 board. He is represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council and Rick Thurman, Rafael Nieves and Nelson Montes.

Toronto had been widely expected to land the highly-touted Guerrero, who bears a striking resemblance to his father. While he doesn’t quite reach Vlad Sr.’s “all-around tools,” in Badler’s estimation, that’s hardly a knock. The younger Guerrero is said to have a very promising bat with contact ability to go with good power potential.

On the other hand, Guerrero is not a strong runner and does not appear to possess his father’s cannon of an arm. Those current limitations, including at least some question of whether he’ll ultimately be a serviceable corner outfielder, led both Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez to rate Guerrero fourth among eligible July 2 prospects.

The Blue Jays entered the day with $2,324,100 to spend without incurring any penalties, per Baseball America, and it appears likely that the club will go well beyond that to get Guerrero. While his bonus has yet to be reported, McDaniel predicted that Guerrero would sign for $3.45MM.

2015-16 International Signing Period Now Open

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Today marks the opening of the 2015-16 international signing period, during which so-called “July 2” prospects can begin inking deals with MLB clubs. Every MLB team has been allocated a series of bonus slots, all of which may be traded, with certain restrictions. Baseball America provides a tally of each team’s total available pool this year. Clubs that spend over their allotment face escalating penalties, ranging from 100% taxes on overages to a two-year ban on $300K+ international bonuses (for going over 15% above the total allocation). This year, the team with the top overall pool allocation — the Diamondbacks ($5,393,900) — is ineligible to spend more than that amount on any single player, and is expected to deal away some of its capacity since it cannot put it to full use. Likewise, the Angels, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees face that limitation due to budget-busting deals in the 2014-15 July 2 period. And numerous additional clubs are expected to incur future signing limitations in the coming signing period. While most of the players subject to the signing rules are a long ways away from the big leagues, there are undoubtedly impact players among them — some of whom could come up in trade talks long before they’re close to the majors.

Here’s the latest on the market, which will gear up quickly, as well as some key resources to get acquainted with:

  • As has been widely expected — and as Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs reported several months back — the Dodgers are set to sign Cuban righty Yadier Alvarez to a $16MM bonus, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports (Twitter links). Passan does caution that it’s best to wait until Alvarez formally signs to declare his market closed. Los Angeles has just over $2MM in spending capacity, meaning that it would start off with a $14MM overage tax on its bill and take on a two-year signing ban for adding Alvarez alone.
  • MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez just provided one major market shift, reporting that the Giants appear to be in the lead for shortstop Lucius Fox, who landed third overall on Sanchez’s list of the thirty best international prospects available on the market.
  • Baseball America’s Ben Badler provides his final top-thirty prospect list, with detailed scouting reports on all those players ranked as well as notes on the teams favored to sign them. He also breaks down each MLB team’s expected overall approach heading into July 2.
  • Likewise, McDaniel has produced his final pre-signing board, which also includes his own assessments of many of the most highly-regarded names and projections of their landing spots. While Badler rates Vladimir Guerrero Jr. first overall, McDaniel places him fourth, giving the top spot to the aforementioned Alvarez.

International Notes: Rankings, Spending, Alvarez, Guerrero

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The 2015-16 international signing period kicks off in six days (July 2), which will lead to significant spending from clubs all around the league in an effort to bolster their farm system. The Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Angels and Diamondbacks will each be ineligible to sign a player for more than $300K due to vastly overshooting their league-assigned international bonus pools in the 2014-15 signing period. Meanwhile, the Cubs and Rangers will be back in the game after being similarly restricted in the 2014-15 period due to excessive spending in 2013-14. Both teams are expected to again be aggressive, though it’s the Dodgers who are rumored to be the most aggressive team on this year’s international market. Here are some notes on this year’s class of July 2 players…

  • Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs has released an excellent sortable prospect board with scouting reports, video, projected bonus information and the likeliest landing spot, with information on 69 different international prospects (not all info available for all prospects). McDaniel currently projects the Dodgers to spend $27.05MM on the international market, though that number could grow, as it’s not clear where every prospect is going to land yet. That $27.05MM figure, by the way, comes out to more than $50MM after factoring in the 100% luxury tax they’ll pay for exceeding their $2,020,300 pool by more than 15 percent (pool info via Baseball America).
  • In addition to the Dodgers and Cubs, the Royals are expected to blow past their international spending limit as well, writes McDaniel in a separate piece. No one figures to match the Dodgers, though, who are “so recklessly signing whichever player they want for whatever number it takes that teams are openly wondering what top Cuban player they won’t sign during this period,” McDaniel notes. It’s currently tough to peg the market for top Cuban outfield prospect Eddy Julio Martinez, but the Dodgers should be considered the favorite for all Cuban players due to their hyper-aggressive approach, McDaniel adds. He also looks ahead to the 2016-17 market, touching on top names such as Kevin Maitan and Abraham Gutierrez.
  • Baseball America’s Ben Badler spoke to six scouts about top international prospects Yadier Alvarez (link) and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. (link). Alvarez’s name has been on the pages of MLBTR for months, as the Cuban righty is said to be the top international pitching prospect on the market thanks to a fastball that reaches 98 mph and the makings of a wipeout slider and an above-average changeup. Badler looks at his sudden emergence from obscurity and gets the takes of scouts who praise him, but also those who view him as a future reliever. As for Guerrero, scouts feel that he has the best combination of hitting ability and power in this year’s class, but he’s already a thick player with a so-so arm, leading to questions about his defensive placement down the line. Alvarez is believed to have a bonus of $16MM+ waiting from the Dodgers, whereas the Blue Jays have long been believed to have a deal with Guerrero (McDaniel pegs the value at $3.45MM).

International Notes: Bonus Pools, Dodgers, Cubs

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Yesterday, Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel looked ahead to the 2015-16 international signing period by looking at several of the top prospects expected to land large bonuses on or after July 2.  Today, McDaniel is back with the second part of his piece, this time examining how particular clubs are going to approach this next round of international spending.  For reference purposes, here are the 2015-16 international bonus pools for each team, as compiled by Baseball America.  If a team exceeds its pool, they have to pay a 100% tax on any overage and are prohibited from spending more than $300K to sign any player in the 2016-17 and 17-18 international periods (provided that the current rules aren’t altered in the next collective bargaining agreement).

Some of the highlights of McDaniel’s latest work, focusing on the teams most likely to exceed their bonus pool and face that two-year penalty…

  • The Dodgers are, unsurprisingly, the only team McDaniel lists in the “(almost) anything is possible” category.  By not signing Yoan Moncada, the Dodgers retained their ability to spend freely in the 2015-16 market, and it seems the team will go far beyond its $2.02MM bonus pool limit.  The Dodgers are rumored to already have agreements in place with Yadier Alvarez (for $16MM), Dominican center fielder Starling Heredia ($3MM) and Dominican shortstop Ronny Brito ($2MM).
  • The Cubs’ previous ban on signings of more than $250K will expire on July 2, and the team is reportedly already planning to again exceed its international budget.  McDaniel lists seven players who have deals in place with Chicago, the most expensive of which is a $2MM bonus for Dominican shortstop Aramis Ademan.
  • The Rangers are another club coming off a ban, and “they’re at least thinking long and hard about” exceeding their pool limit again, though McDaniel hears from rival scouts that Texas’ international planning may have “got a bit of a late start” due to A.J. Preller and Don Welke leaving for the Padres.  Three rumored agreements should put the Rangers roughly at their approximate $4.586MM bonus pool already, and the club is still checking in on other high-priced talent.
  • The Royals have a shot at staying under their bonus limit if they trade for some extra space, though it looks like Kansas City will probably slightly exceed their pool (a little over $2.07MM).
  • The Blue Jays also seem likely to slightly go over their spending pool (roughly $2.324MM) and it could be entirely for the sake of their much-rumored agreement with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  McDaniel believes Toronto’s agreement with Guerrero is worth $4.4MM and he hasn’t heard any news that the Jays have any other deals lined up with other prospects, though he figures they’ll sign one or two other notable players “to make the most of going over.”  While fans now associate exceeding the bonus limit with extreme cases like the Yankees or Red Sox, McDaniel notes that most clubs who exceed their pools are like the Jays, who fit the model of a team who “found a couple players they really like in a year they didn’t have a ton of money to spend.”
  • Since they had hoped to sign Moncada and thus be facing a penalty for the 2015-16 signing period, the Padres seemingly don’t have any deals lined up.  McDaniel considers them a “wild card” due to Preller’s aggressiveness.

International Notes: July 2 Market, Cuba

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Hector Olivera and Yadier Alvarez are the two biggest names to watch on the international market at present, but let’s take a look at some other notes while we wait to learn more on their situations:

  • Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs has a wide-ranging round-up of the latest from the upcoming July 2nd signing period, which has clarified somewhat with Yoan Moncada now in agreement with the Red Sox. Noting that slot money has gone up by about five to seven percent, as Baseball America’s Ben Badler details, McDaniel says that about five clubs seem to be on track to exceed their bonus allotments and “many more” will attempt to spend to their max.
  • Uncertainty in U.S.-Cuban politics is dampening some teams’ interest in going over their pools and incurring severe spending restrictions for two years, per McDaniel. Depending upon how things progress, that might mean missing out on a sudden influx of talent. Nevertheless, it appears that overall spending will see significant increases; indeed, as McDaniel tweets, one team that he does not mention in his post is already believed to have about $7.5MM set to go out to six players — none of whom will be among the highest-earning prospects.
  • McDaniel provides a ton of detail on July 2nd prospects, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is said to be likely heading to the Blue Jays for a bonus that will top $4MM. Also expected to go over the $4MM mark are young slugger Jhailyn Ortiz, who is expected to land with the Phillies, and shortstop Wander Javier, whom the Twins are believed to be line to sign.
  • While there is nothing new on Alvarez, Badler does explain that his situation — and that of fellow young righty Vladimir Gutierrez — could shape the future of Cuban amateur talent. Alvarez could test MLB’s historical unwillingness to grant exceptions to its timely registration rule, given the fact that he could not do so while in Cuba, and that would presumably set the precedent moving forward. A similar situation holds for Gutierrez, who could face an exceedingly long delay if he cannot establish residency in a third country in relatively short order.
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