Latest On Slow-Moving Free Agent Market
In his latest exploration of the stagnant free-agent market, Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports that free agents have begun to discuss the possible organization of a training camp that would “mimic their typical spring work.” Pitchers and catchers are set to begin reporting for Spring Training in just three weeks, of course, and there are well over 100 unsigned players still seeking employment for the upcoming season.
While the five-year deal for Lorenzo Cain established a new high-water mark for free agents this winter both in terms of contract length and guaranteed money, Passan suggests that other top free agents aren’t necessarily expected to follow. Despite a recent report that Yu Darvish is expected to reach an agreement in the next few days, Passan hears differently, writing that teams throughout the league don’t think that any of Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Eric Hosmer or J.D. Martinez is close to signing. (Certainly, that can change in a hurry with an improved offer from even one potential suitor.)
More broadly, Passan again explores the lack of spending throughout the league in an offseason environment that has been increasingly governed by some teams’ strict adherence to avoiding luxury tax penalization. Prior to the latest wave of collective bargaining negotiations, Passan adds, the league was prepared for the luxury tax line to jump as high as $215MM and considered it a major victory when the bar was raised to $195MM last year and $197MM in 2018. (The tax threshold will increase to $206MM in 2019, $208MM in 2020 and $210MM in 2021.)
While the luxury tax only serves as a direct deterrent for Major League Baseball’s top spenders and thus cannot be viewed as some form of panacea to explain the woefully slow winter, it’s unquestionably slowed things at the top end of the market. Officials from both the Yankees and Dodgers acknowledged to Passan that they’d have spent more this offseason had the tax barrier been higher. And the Giants, of course, have openly stated on multiple occasions that they, too, are looking to reset their penalty level by narrowly staying under the tax line. It stands to reason that they could’ve been more involved in the outfield market with some extra breathing room in that regard.
Exactly how the remainder of the offseason plays out obviously can’t be known, but Passan indicates that players are continuing to encourage one another to hold firm and not cave into lesser deals in a sense of panic as Spring Training approaches.
At some point, it seems fair to wonder, too, if that sense of panic will hit teams that view themselves as hopeful contenders but have multiple glaring holes on the roster. The Orioles, for instance, have been seeking three starting pitchers as well as a left-handed-hitting outfielder but have yet to address any of those needs in a meaningful way. The Nationals still could use a fifth starter and an upgrade behind the plate. The Twins have made a trio of bullpen upgrades but still have clear rotation needs. Eventually, there will have to be a landslide of agreements, though that’s been the common refrain for weeks and there’s still little in the way of actual results.
Brewers Still Seeking Rotation Upgrades, Could Deal From Outfield Surplus
The Brewers are the talk of Major League Baseball at present, having pulled off a blockbuster trade to acquire Christian Yelich and agreed to a five-year deal with Lorenzo Cain in a span of mere hours. Milwaukee is hardly done for the offseason, though, and reports from Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link) and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) highlight the various avenues they can take toward further improvement.
Milwaukee is shopping outfielders Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton as it looks for an upgrade to its rotation, according to Nightengale. Rosenthal suggests a bit more softly that the Brewers are open to offers on Santana but aren’t eager to trade him, hoping instead to at times run out an outfield of Yelich, Cain and Santana. The organization has discussed the idea of utilizing Ryan Braun at first base on occasion, Rosenthal adds. While Yelich, Cain, Santana, Braun and Eric Thames make five players for four spots, though certainly that depth wouldn’t be a bad thing for the Brewers to carry into the 2018 season.
Broxton, it seems, is something of an odd man out following yesterday’s acquisitions. The 27-year-old served as the Brewers’ primary center fielder in 2017 and hit .220/.299/.420 with 20 homers and 21 steals through 463 plate appearances. Broxton, though, also struck out at a staggering 37.8 percent clip and delivered mixed results in the outfield. Both Defensive Runs Saved (-7) and Ultimate Zone Rating (-2.2) considered him below average, whereas Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric credited him at +9 outs, ranking him among the game’s 15 best overall outfielders.
Broxton certainly has his warts, but the 27-year-old is controllable through the 2022 season and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until next offseason at the earliest (when he’s likely to be a Super Two player). In many regards, he fits the criteria of what the Giants are looking for in a minimum-salary center field option. He’s also out of minor league options, so if he’s not going to play a role on the Brewers in 2018, he figures to be traded.
Santana, meanwhile, is controlled through the 2021 season and is coming off an excellent season in which he batted .278/.371/.505 with 30 homers and 29 doubles. His superior production in 2017 would assuredly make him a costlier asset in trade talks with the Brewers, though he’s also a vastly superior asset for the Brewers when attempting to pry a big league starter away from clubs in trade talks.
Brett Phillips stands out as another potentially available outfielder currently in the Brewers’ mix. The 23-year-old hit .276/.351/.448 with four homers and five steals through 98 PAs as a rookie this past season, though like Broxton, he struggled with a sky-high strikeout rate (34.7 percent). The strikeout woes weren’t limited to that brief MLB exposure, either, as Phillips whiffed at a 29.9 percent clip in the minors, too. He also posted BABIP marks north of .400 in both the Majors and Triple-A in 2017, suggesting that his production was somewhat overstated. Nonetheless, the former top prospect should draw interest, as he’s controllable all the way through 2023 and does have minor league options remaining.
While the Brewers’ now considerable outfield surplus makes the possibility of a trade fairly obvious, the team could also still pursue starters on the free-agent market. Rosenthal characterizes a signing of Yu Darvish or Alex Cobb as unlikely, though the market for starters has been stagnant to the point that nearly every lower-tier option remains available for the Brewers to explore.
Latest On Yu Darvish
It has been easy to notice the increased chatter surrounding top free agent pitcher Yu Darvish, but his timeline for signing has largely remained uncertain — as has the likely landing spot. The latest updates seem both to narrow and expand the possibilities:
- The Phillies are “checking in” on Darvish, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter), though he also notes that the club is doing the same with other top free agents. Philadelphia appears to be positioning itself as a potential landing spot for players whose markets haven’t developed as hoped. With loads of money to spend, the team could certainly function as an opportunistic buyer, particularly in its greatest area of evident need — the rotation. Unsurprisingly, Rosenthal says, the team would mostly be interested in relatively shorter-term arrangements. That seems to be consistent with the Phils’ approach already this offseason, which has featured relatively hefty salaries on two or three-year arrangements.
- It seems that momentum could now be building toward a decision, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that Darvish is “increasingly likely” to reach a deal this week. With just three weeks remaining until Spring Training gets underway, it seems reasonable to expect a break in the long-building free-agent tension. For other starters — and perhaps even some other position players — a deal for Darvish could not only set an important market marker but also free certain organizations to pursue other priorities.
- Otherwise, the Twins remain actively engaged in Darvish, Morosi notes, though that has been known for some time now. We last checked in on Minnesota’s interest yesterday, with indications being that the team wasn’t willing to make a market-topping offer. Of course, numerous other teams — in addition to any mystery entrants — are still also reported to be in pursuit. We’ve heard chatter recently of an offer from the Brewers, significant engagement from the Cubs, and ongoing interest from the Rangers and Dodgers. In sum, there’s still little in the way of clarity in terms of how things will play out. But today’s report suggests that organizations could be readying their final push for Darvish, whose representatives at Wasserman are no doubt working to secure the biggest offers possible and sorting through all the other factors that will weigh into the decision.
Central Notes: Duffy, Cubs, Bauer
Here’s the latest from the game’s central divisions:
- Royals lefty Danny Duffy says he is throwing pain free after an offseason elbow clean-up, as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports. “Honestly, I had forgotten what it felt like to throw without any pain or discomfort,” says Duffy. That’s good news for Kansas City, as the organization will expect the southpaw to lead an uncertain staff in 2018 and beyond — unless, that is, he isn’t traded at some point. Other organizations would no doubt have interest in Duffy’s reasonable contract ($61MM through 2021), though we haven’t seen any indication that the Royals are likely to move the 29-year-old this winter.
- Over at The Athletic, Patrick Mooney has a pair of articles (subscription links) regarding the market’s two top pitchers. The Cubs have plenty of money left to work with, he notes, and have seemingly remained engaged with Yu Darvish for much of the winter. That said, there are still alternatives for both team and player; Mooney says the Cubs have other scenarios in mind and notes the possibility of mystery teams in Darvish’s market. It’s less clear, Mooney suggests, that there’s a realistic path back to Chicago for Jake Arrieta. As MLBTR’s 2018 Free Agent Tracker shows, Darvish and Arrieta are just a few of the many starters still available; remarkably, the Cubs’ early agreement with Tyler Chatwood still paces this winter’s market for rotation contracts.
- The Indians are readying for an arbitration hearing with righty Trevor Bauer, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer writes. Cleveland is utilizing a file-and-trial approach, says Hoynes, meaning a panel will decide whether the righty plays for $5.3MM or $6.52MM in the coming season. The results won’t just determine whether Bauer can pick up an additional $1.22MM for the coming season; his 2018 salary will also set a base rate for raises in his final two seasons of arb eligibility. As always, you can keep track of all the arbitration developments with MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker.
Latest On Pursuit Of Yu Darvish
Jan. 23: The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney writes that there’s “a sense” that Darvish’s talks with interested parties have gained momentum recently. Moreover, Mooney writes that Darvish’s options are “not limited to the teams identified publicly” — meaning the Cubs, Twins, Rangers, Brewers, Dodgers and Yankees. Darvish remains a focus for the Cubs, according to Mooney, who adds that a reunion with Arrieta “appears to be a long shot.”
Meanwhile, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that a rival exec who has recently been in contact with the Twins expressed some doubt about Minnesota’s willingness to sign Darvish if it means pushing into the $150MM territory.
Jan. 22, 10:45pm: The Cubs are “having active talks” with Darvish, according to a report from the Associated Press. That said, it’s also clear from the report that there is no agreement in place.
Speculation surrounding the connection between Darvish and the Cubs already increased earlier tonight, as it emerged that the club has a deal in place with catcher Chris Gimenez — who once forged a strong bond with Darvish when the two played with the Rangers.
2:01pm: Free agent righty Yu Darvish has received “at least” one five-year offer, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Crasnick does not specify if the five-year offer is the one which he’s reportedly received from the Brewers, though Milwaukee is indeed one of the teams in the mix for Darvish, per the report. The Twins, Rangers, Cubs and Dodgers are also in play at the moment, he adds.
Earlier this month, Darvish was reportedly choosing among six teams — the Twins, Rangers, Cubs, Yankees and Astros, with one mystery team added to the bunch by Darvish himself (on Twitter). The Dodgers were later reported to remain in the mix for Darvish, and it now appears that the Brewers have joined the pursuit while the Astros are out of the picture after their acquisition of Gerrit Cole.
There’s no mention of the dollars in Crasnick’s report, and the lack of context makes it difficult to assess the situation. Much has been made this offseason of teams preferring to sign free agents to shorter-term deals at a higher annual value, and if that’s the case with Darvish’s five-year offer, then perhaps the overall value of the deal isn’t that far from early offseason expectations. (Many pundits, MLBTR included, projected six years for Darvish at the beginning of the offseason.) If the AAV is on the low end of the spectrum, however, then it perhaps isn’t difficult to see why Darvish and his reps at Wasserman have yet to jump on the contract.
With just about three weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, there are still well over 100 free agents that need to find homes, so at some point one would have to imagine that either agents or clubs will begin to blink, setting the stage for a flurry of activity. There’s no evidence that Darvish and his agents are close to doing so at this juncture, though it stands to reason that his signing could have a trickle-down effect of sorts. Many of the same teams vying for his services have been linked to Alex Cobb and Jake Arrieta, and once those pieces fall into place, the remaining free-agent starters on the market could conceivably begin to come off the board.
NL Central Notes: Darvish, Brewers, Harrison, Cubs
The Brewers have reportedly made an offer to free-agent righty Yu Darvish, but specifics of the proposal have yet to come to light. However, both Peter Gammons of Gammons Daily and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel have explored the topic to varying degrees since initial word of the Darvish offer broke in Japan. Gammons suggests that while the Brewers have been connected to both Darvish and Jake Arrieta, the team isn’t planning on making a big splash for the rotation unless owner Mark Attanasio “jumps in.” Haudricourt, meanwhile, notes that GM David Stearns remains mum on the topic while explaining that a big-splash, market-value offer from the Brewers appears unlikely.
Here’s more from Milwaukee and the rest of the NL Central:
- There was a suggestion over the weekend that the Brewers were nearing some kind of trade, but ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick has since walked things back via Twitter. The team has “been working hard on trade possibilities” while also looking into some significant free agents, but Crasnick now says the team is “juggling a lot of scenarios” rather than closing in on anything in particular. In any event, it feels as if there will be some notable movement on the Milwaukee roster between now and the start of camp, though just what and when remain unclear.
- There has been speculation all winter long that the Pirates would trade Josh Harrison, especially after the team dealt key veterans Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole and Harrison suggested he might like to be the next man out the door. But there are some contrary indications. Pirates general manager Neal Huntington has indicated the Pittsburgh organization is still angling to put a winner on the field in the near term, though he hardly ruled out a swap. And a rival GM tells Gammons (see the above link) that he thinks it’s actually increasingly likely that Harrison will remain aboard the Bucs’ ship. Since the bulk of the value brought back in the McCutchen and Cole trades is at or near the MLB level, the club may prefer to keep the useful Harrison in the fold, Gammons’s source suggests.
- While the Cubs have given every indication that they are still looking at starters, current righty Kyle Hendricks says the rotation doesn’t need to be improved, as Steve Greenberg of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. The Cubs, after all, have four established starters along with the capable Mike Montgomery. Of course, the depth chart behind that group is questionable, and the team would no doubt prefer to upgrade over Montgomery — turning him into a useful reliever who’d be the first man up in the event of injury — rather than settling for a pure depth option.
Brewers Make Contract Offer To Yu Darvish
The Brewers have made an official contract offer to Yu Darvish, according to reports from Yahoo Japan (hat tip to Kazuto Yamazaki for the translation). Interestingly, the original link was retweeted by Darvish himself, whose response of a thinking-face emoji could be interpreted in a few different ways.
Darvish’s list of suitors had reportedly narrowed to a field of six teams: the Astros, Cubs, Rangers, Twins, Yankees, and an unknown sixth club referenced by Darvish in another tweet. There was speculation that the sixth team could’ve been the Dodgers, Darvish’s most recent club, though perhaps the Brewers were the mystery team, depending on the timing of their offer.
Or, it also isn’t out of the question that Milwaukee has just entered the race for Darvish’s services, perhaps sensing an opening in the Darvish sweepstakes. MLBTR projected Darvish for a six-year, $160MM contract at the start of the offseason, and it’s fair to wonder if the Brewers’ offer was anywhere near that figure given the uncertainty surrounding Darvish’s market. The Astros, for instance, are likely no longer bidding for another top starter now that they’ve landed Gerrit Cole. The Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, and Rangers were all either hoping to avoid the luxury tax threshold or simply weren’t keen on committing the payroll space required to sign Darvish. With all of these teams somewhat hamstrung in their pursuit of the star right-hander, the Brewers could well have liked their chances in a bidding war against a fellow smaller-market team in Minnesota.
The idea of the Brewers and Twins dueling for top pitchers this offseason was actually posited by MLBTR’s Steve Adams back in early November, with Steve reasoning that both teams had the rotation needs, the long-term payroll room, and a revived hope of contention in 2018 to make the pursuit of a pitcher like Darvish or Jake Arrieta into a reality. Despite some rumors about potential big-ticket signings or trade targets (i.e. Chris Archer), the Brewers have thus far made more modest pitching acquisitions in the form of Jhoulys Chacin and Yovani Gallardo. Milwaukee has also been rumored to be discussing outfielders in trades, perhaps to make another surprising free agent splash in the form of pursuing Lorenzo Cain.
NL West Notes: Padres, Yelich, Giants, Dahl
Some news and notes from around the NL West…
- In a reader mailbag piece, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune casts doubt on the Padres‘ chances of trading for Christian Yelich. The team’s pursuit of Eric Hosmer indicates a desire to acquire a younger star player who will still be productive when the Padres return to contention, so Yelich (who is over two years younger than Hosmer) would theoretically fit the bill. The Marlins, however, are understandably demanding elite prospects in any Yelich deal, and Lin doubts the Padres would part with top minor leaguers like Fernando Tatis Jr., Mackenzie Gore, or Michel Baez when San Diego’s own rebuild is still ongoing. Lin’s piece is well worth a full read, as he answers several other questions about the Padres roster.
- There hasn’t been any connection between Yu Darvish and the Giants this winter, though The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly (subscription required) opines that San Francisco should offer the free agent hurler a one-year deal in the $30MM range. Essentially, Baggarly is proposing a very high-priced version of the “pillow contract” strategy, wherein Darvish would build more value in 2018 with an eye towards finally landing a major long-term deal next winter. Such a contract would put the Giants over the luxury tax threshold for 2018, though they’d avoid another multi-year commitment while landing a star pitcher for a roster clearly designed to win now.
- Rockies manager Bud Black shared some positive health news about David Dahl, as Black told the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters that Dahl should be “full go” at the start of Spring Training. “He’s engaged, he’s running, he’s lifting weights, he’s swinging at 100 percent. Right now there are no concerns, and medically everybody feels really good about David,” Black said. Dahl was limited to just 19 minor league games in 2017 due to a stress reaction in his rib cage, and his potential return gives Colorado another intriguing piece for its outfield.
Twins Interested In Wade Miley
The Twins and the agents for Yu Darvish, Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Wade Miley, Chris Tillman and Mike Napoli are “maintaining regular dialogue,” according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (on Twitter). Minnesota’s interest in nearly all of those names was already known before Saturday, though this is the first reported connection between the team and Miley.
While the Twins are seeking a front-end starter to complement their only reliable options – Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios – chief baseball officer Derek Falvey revealed this week that they’re also pursuing “value adds” for their rotation. The 31-year-old Miley would qualify as the latter, considering the struggles the left-hander has endured lately.
As a member of the Orioles in 2017, Miley made 32 starts to reach the 30 mark for the fifth straight year, but he averaged fewer than five innings per appearance and finished with 157 1/3 frames – the lowest full-season total of his career. He also notched personal worsts in ERA (5.61), FIP (5.27) and walks per nine (5.32). As a result, the Orioles decided after the season to decline Miley’s $12MM option for 2018 in favor of a $500K buyout, thus sending him to the open market.
Despite his impressive track record of durability, run prevention hasn’t been a strong suit for Miley for the majority of his career, which began in 2011. At his best, Miley combined for an outstanding 3.44 ERA/3.57 FIP across 397 1/3 innings as a Diamondback from 2012-13. Since then, he has pitched to a 4.89 ERA/4.32 FIP over 718 1/3 frames in Arizona, Boston, Seattle and Baltimore.
Miley, to his credit, isn’t that far removed from serving as a competent innings eater with the Red Sox in 2015. And while last season was mostly disastrous, he did manage an 8.12 K/9 – the second-highest figure of his career – along with a quality groundball percentage (50.3). Maintaining those numbers and cutting walks closer to his career mark (3.13 BB/9) would help make Miley a useful back-end option for the Twins or another club in 2018. He’ll also need positive regression in the home run department after last year saw him record a 19.4 percent HR-to-fly ball rate (compared to a lifetime 12.5 percent).
AL Notes: Rangers, Cain, Twins, Red Sox, Kimbrel
In updating the Rangers’ pursuit of starters, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes that there has recently been “more activity between” other teams and free agent right-hander Yu Darvish. However, having spent nearly all of his career in Texas, Darvish is waiting for the Rangers to court him more aggressively, Wilson suggests. The Rangers expect him to land better offers elsewhere, though, per two club officials who spoke with Wilson, who adds that they continue to view Alex Cobb more favorably than Lance Lynn when it comes to available second-tier starters. Regardless, a significant free agent investment doesn’t seem likely for the Rangers, general manager Jon Daniels indicated.
Regarding free agents in general and Texas’ reported interest in center fielder Lorenzo Cain, Daniels said: “We want to play Delino (DeShields) in center field. Obviously, Cain’s a very good player. I would figure that if we have another big expenditure it would be on the pitching side. I’ve said all along I think it’s unlikely either way.”
More on a couple other AL franchises:
- The Twins, who have been among Darvish’s pursuers this offseason, don’t have a “budget limitation” when it comes to addressing their rotation, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey told Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. Falvey wouldn’t comment on any single player, but he did note that he sees “5-10 pitchers out there who could impact us.” Beyond the top available options, the Twins are also looking at “value adds that could help us,” Falvey revealed. Owner Jim Pohlad was willing to discuss Darvish, on the other hand, stating he’s “on board” with signing him. Pohlad added that he’s “as intrigued by [Darvish] as anybody and attracted to [signing him] as anybody” (via Bollinger).
- Although Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel is entering a contract year, he and the club have not discussed an extension. The 29-year-old Kimbrel is open to staying with the Sox for the long haul, though, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald relays. While Kimbrel has been an elite closer for most of his career, including during an otherworldly 2017 in which he logged a 1.43 ERA with 16.43 K/9 and 1.83 BB/9 over 69 innings, new manager Alex Cora may use him earlier in games this year if the situation calls for it. Kimbrel addressed that, saying: “There will definitely have to be a plan in place, and it’s going to come from both sides, mine and his side. I’m sure we’ll be able to talk something out and it’s going to be based off workload and things like that. It’s just the way the game is going.” Mastrodonato posits that fewer saves in 2018 could mean fewer dollars for Kimbrel on his next contract, though I’d argue that teams already know what he’s capable of in the ninth inning. Thriving in a slightly different role could make him all the more attractive as a free agent, then.
- A reunion with free agent left-hander Francisco Liriano is not high on the Twins’ list of priorities, according to Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press (Twitter link). Liriano began his career in Minnesota and flourished at times as a starter with the club from 2005-12, but he’s now coming off a pair of less-than-stellar seasons in which he pitched for a combined three times (Pittsburgh, Toronto and Houston). After finishing last year as a reliever with the World Series-winning Astros, it’s unclear whether the 34-year-old will continue in that role or move back to the rotation with his next employer – which apparently won’t be the Twins.