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Yu Darvish

Dodgers Notes: Darvish, Kershaw, Utley, Kemp

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On the possibility of re-signing free agent right-hander Yu Darvish, Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi admitted Saturday that “there would be some hurdles for us to add any significant contracts at this point” (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, on Twitter). Zaidi didn’t specifically cite LA’s goal to stay under the $197MM luxury tax threshold, but Plunkett notes that the club doesn’t want to get any closer to the mark than it currently is. The Dodgers already have approximately $186MM committed to their 2018 roster. With Darvish seemingly poised to sign a contract worth in the neighborhood of $25MM per year sometime during this glacial offseason, a return to the reigning NL champs obviously looks unrealistic.

Here’s more on the Dodgers, courtesy of Plunkett unless otherwise noted:

  • Darvish’s presence on the open market puts his future in question, and left-hander Clayton Kershaw could find himself in a similar position next winter if he opts out of his contract after the season. When discussing the option Friday, Kershaw said he’s focused on staying healthy in 2018, his age-30 season, and “everything will take care of itself from there.” While Kershaw is the game’s top pitcher when he’s available, back injuries limited him in both 2016 and ’17 – thus destroying his Cy Young chances in each campaign. Still, barring a disastrous 2018, it seems likely he’ll exit the final two years and $65MM of his contract in favor of securing a richer deal. Regardless of whether he hits the market in a year, Kershaw expects far more action in free agency than we’ve seen this winter – in part because teams intent on avoiding the tax (including the Dodgers) won’t have that same motivation.
  • There’s mutual interest in a reunion between the Dodgers and free agent infielder Chase Utley, as Zaidi revealed that the two sides continue to “have conversations.” As a free agent last winter, Utley stayed on the market until late February before returning to the Dodgers for $2MM. He went on to provide solid bang for LA’s buck in his age-38 campaign, during which he hit .236/.324/.405 in 353 plate appearances.
  • In an ideal world, the Dodgers would be able to dump outfielder Matt Kemp and his two-year, $43MM commitment on another club. Of course, they’ve had no luck in that department since acquiring the 33-year-old in an unusual, tax-geared trade with the Braves in December. Unless something changes by spring training, the Dodgers expect Kemp to be part of their left field competition, Zaidi informed reporters, including Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. Joc Pederson, Andrew Toles, Enrique Hernandez, Alex Verdugo and Trayce Thompson will join Kemp in vying for roles, Gurnick writes. Kemp has gotten into “great shape” this offseason, per Zaidi, who contends that “a motivated Matt Kemp can help a lot of teams in baseball, including us.” Kemp hasn’t been all that helpful to any club since 2014, when he slashed .287/.346/.506 in 599 PAs to conclude his first tenure with the Dodgers. Even then, though, Kemp’s well-known defensive limitations somewhat offset his contributions at the plate.

Heyman’s Latest: Corbin, Darvish, Cobb, Kemp, Nationals, CarGo, K-Rod

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Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports is back with his latest collection of notes and rumblings on all 30 Major League teams…

  • The Brewers and Diamondbacks had “extensive talks” about left-hander Patrick Corbin at some point in the offseason.  Corbin has been mentioned as a possible trade chip due to his price tag ($7.5MM in 2018, his final year under contract) and Arizona’s increased amount of rotation depth.  Milwaukee, meanwhile, has a clear need for rotation help, so it makes sense that the Brew Crew checked in on Corbin amidst their numerous other talks about notable arms on the free agent and trade fronts — as Heyman put it, “they have investigated every pitching possibility out there.”  This is just my speculation, but the Brewers’ surplus of young center fielders (Keon Broxton and Brett Phillips) could be intriguing to the D’Backs since A.J. Pollock is only a year away from free agency.  The Yankees are known to be one of the many teams who have also discussed Corbin this winter.
  • The Twins aren’t thought to be willing to go beyond five years for Yu Darvish, and “Alex Cobb is believed to be their fallback choice for the rotation” if Darvish passes.  The Rangers similarly have interest in Darvish and Cobb if their prices fall, though it sounds like Texas is hoping for only a major bargain signing.  As one source tells Heyman, “the Rangers are lowballing even the lowballers” in contract offers.
  • The Dodgers have “three or four” potential trade partners in mind for Matt Kemp, according to a source, though Heyman hears from another source that the Rangers are “probably not” a candidate for the veteran outfielder.  It seems like not much has changed since Heyman last checked in on Kemp’s trade market in December, and L.A. may have to attach some minor league talent to get anyone to bite on Kemp’s $43MM in remaining salary owed through the 2019 season.
  • Nationals ownership has concerns about the luxury tax, so it seems unlikely that they will make another pricey, late-winter signing as in past years.  Washington currently projects to exceed the $197MM tax threshold but only by a few million dollars, and should still be able to spend a bit on in-season upgrades without triggering a higher level of tax penalties.
  • Carlos Gonzalez is still an option for the Orioles as they look to add another left-handed hitting outfielder.  CarGo is looking to rebound from a nightmarish 2017 that saw him post a -0.2 fWAR overall, though he did hit much better over the last two months of the season.  Baltimore likely wouldn’t have to spend much to land Gonzalez, and thus the O’s could focus more money on their larger pitching needs.
  • Francisco Rodriguez has received some offers after throwing for scouts.  The former closer is trying to revive his career after a disastrous season that saw him released by both the Tigers and Nationals.

Latest On Slow-Moving Free Agent Market

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In his latest exploration of the stagnant free-agent market, Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports that free agents have begun to discuss the possible organization of a training camp that would “mimic their typical spring work.” Pitchers and catchers are set to begin reporting for Spring Training in just three weeks, of course, and there are well over 100 unsigned players still seeking employment for the upcoming season.

While the five-year deal for Lorenzo Cain established a new high-water mark for free agents this winter both in terms of contract length and guaranteed money, Passan suggests that other top free agents aren’t necessarily expected to follow. Despite a recent report that Yu Darvish is expected to reach an agreement in the next few days, Passan hears differently, writing that teams throughout the league don’t think that any of Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Eric Hosmer or J.D. Martinez is close to signing. (Certainly, that can change in a hurry with an improved offer from even one potential suitor.)

More broadly, Passan again explores the lack of spending throughout the league in an offseason environment that has been increasingly governed by some teams’ strict adherence to avoiding luxury tax penalization. Prior to the latest wave of collective bargaining negotiations, Passan adds, the league was prepared for the luxury tax line to jump as high as $215MM and considered it a major victory when the bar was raised to $195MM last year and $197MM in 2018. (The tax threshold will increase to $206MM in 2019, $208MM in 2020 and $210MM in 2021.)

While the luxury tax only serves as a direct deterrent for Major League Baseball’s top spenders and thus cannot be viewed as some form of panacea to explain the woefully slow winter, it’s unquestionably slowed things at the top end of the market. Officials from both the Yankees and Dodgers acknowledged to Passan that they’d have spent more this offseason had the tax barrier been higher. And the Giants, of course, have openly stated on multiple occasions that they, too, are looking to reset their penalty level by narrowly staying under the tax line. It stands to reason that they could’ve been more involved in the outfield market with some extra breathing room in that regard.

Exactly how the remainder of the offseason plays out obviously can’t be known, but Passan indicates that players are continuing to encourage one another to hold firm and not cave into lesser deals in a sense of panic as Spring Training approaches.

At some point, it seems fair to wonder, too, if that sense of panic will hit teams that view themselves as hopeful contenders but have multiple glaring holes on the roster. The Orioles, for instance, have been seeking three starting pitchers as well as a left-handed-hitting outfielder but have yet to address any of those needs in a meaningful way. The Nationals still could use a fifth starter and an upgrade behind the plate. The Twins have made a trio of bullpen upgrades but still have clear rotation needs. Eventually, there will have to be a landslide of agreements, though that’s been the common refrain for weeks and there’s still little in the way of actual results.

Brewers Still Seeking Rotation Upgrades, Could Deal From Outfield Surplus

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The Brewers are the talk of Major League Baseball at present, having pulled off a blockbuster trade to acquire Christian Yelich and agreed to a five-year deal with Lorenzo Cain in a span of mere hours. Milwaukee is hardly done for the offseason, though, and reports from Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link) and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) highlight the various avenues they can take toward further improvement.

Milwaukee is shopping outfielders Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton as it looks for an upgrade to its rotation, according to Nightengale. Rosenthal suggests a bit more softly that the Brewers are open to offers on Santana but aren’t eager to trade him, hoping instead to at times run out an outfield of Yelich, Cain and Santana. The organization has discussed the idea of utilizing Ryan Braun at first base on occasion, Rosenthal adds. While Yelich, Cain, Santana, Braun and Eric Thames make five players for four spots, though certainly that depth wouldn’t be a bad thing for the Brewers to carry into the 2018 season.

Broxton, it seems, is something of an odd man out following yesterday’s acquisitions. The 27-year-old served as the Brewers’ primary center fielder in 2017 and hit .220/.299/.420 with 20 homers and 21 steals through 463 plate appearances. Broxton, though, also struck out at a staggering 37.8 percent clip and delivered mixed results in the outfield. Both Defensive Runs Saved (-7) and Ultimate Zone Rating (-2.2) considered him below average, whereas Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric credited him at +9 outs, ranking him among the game’s 15 best overall outfielders.

Broxton certainly has his warts, but the 27-year-old is controllable through the 2022 season and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until next offseason at the earliest (when he’s likely to be a Super Two player). In many regards, he fits the criteria of what the Giants are looking for in a minimum-salary center field option. He’s also out of minor league options, so if he’s not going to play a role on the Brewers in 2018, he figures to be traded.

Santana, meanwhile, is controlled through the 2021 season and is coming off an excellent season in which he batted .278/.371/.505 with 30 homers and 29 doubles. His superior production in 2017 would assuredly make him a costlier asset in trade talks with the Brewers, though he’s also a vastly superior asset for the Brewers when attempting to pry a big league starter away from clubs in trade talks.

Brett Phillips stands out as another potentially available outfielder currently in the Brewers’ mix. The 23-year-old hit .276/.351/.448 with four homers and five steals through 98 PAs as a rookie this past season, though like Broxton, he struggled with a sky-high strikeout rate (34.7 percent). The strikeout woes weren’t limited to that brief MLB exposure, either, as Phillips whiffed at a 29.9 percent clip in the minors, too. He also posted BABIP marks north of .400 in both the Majors and Triple-A in 2017, suggesting that his production was somewhat overstated. Nonetheless, the former top prospect should draw interest, as he’s controllable all the way through 2023 and does have minor league options remaining.

While the Brewers’ now considerable outfield surplus makes the possibility of a trade fairly obvious, the team could also still pursue starters on the free-agent market. Rosenthal characterizes a signing of Yu Darvish or Alex Cobb as unlikely, though the market for starters has been stagnant to the point that nearly every lower-tier option remains available for the Brewers to explore.

Latest On Yu Darvish

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It has been easy to notice the increased chatter surrounding top free agent pitcher Yu Darvish, but his timeline for signing has largely remained uncertain — as has the likely landing spot. The latest updates seem both to narrow and expand the possibilities:

  • The Phillies are “checking in” on Darvish, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter), though he also notes that the club is doing the same with other top free agents. Philadelphia appears to be positioning itself as a potential landing spot for players whose markets haven’t developed as hoped. With loads of money to spend, the team could certainly function as an opportunistic buyer, particularly in its greatest area of evident need — the rotation. Unsurprisingly, Rosenthal says, the team would mostly be interested in relatively shorter-term arrangements. That seems to be consistent with the Phils’ approach already this offseason, which has featured relatively hefty salaries on two or three-year arrangements.
  • It seems that momentum could now be building toward a decision, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that Darvish is “increasingly likely” to reach a deal this week. With just three weeks remaining until Spring Training gets underway, it seems reasonable to expect a break in the long-building free-agent tension. For other starters — and perhaps even some other position players — a deal for Darvish could not only set an important market marker but also free certain organizations to pursue other priorities.
  • Otherwise, the Twins remain actively engaged in Darvish, Morosi notes, though that has been known for some time now. We last checked in on Minnesota’s interest yesterday, with indications being that the team wasn’t willing to make a market-topping offer. Of course, numerous other teams — in addition to any mystery entrants — are still also reported to be in pursuit. We’ve heard chatter recently of an offer from the Brewers, significant engagement from the Cubs, and ongoing interest from the Rangers and Dodgers. In sum, there’s still little in the way of clarity in terms of how things will play out. But today’s report suggests that organizations could be readying their final push for Darvish, whose representatives at Wasserman are no doubt working to secure the biggest offers possible and sorting through all the other factors that will weigh into the decision.

Central Notes: Duffy, Cubs, Bauer

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Here’s the latest from the game’s central divisions:

  • Royals lefty Danny Duffy says he is throwing pain free after an offseason elbow clean-up, as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports. “Honestly, I had forgotten what it felt like to throw without any pain or discomfort,” says Duffy. That’s good news for Kansas City, as the organization will expect the southpaw to lead an uncertain staff in 2018 and beyond — unless, that is, he isn’t traded at some point. Other organizations would no doubt have interest in Duffy’s reasonable contract ($61MM through 2021), though we haven’t seen any indication that the Royals are likely to move the 29-year-old this winter.
  • Over at The Athletic, Patrick Mooney has a pair of articles (subscription links) regarding the market’s two top pitchers. The Cubs have plenty of money left to work with, he notes, and have seemingly remained engaged with Yu Darvish for much of the winter. That said, there are still alternatives for both team and player; Mooney says the Cubs have other scenarios in mind and notes the possibility of mystery teams in Darvish’s market. It’s less clear, Mooney suggests, that there’s a realistic path back to Chicago for Jake Arrieta. As MLBTR’s 2018 Free Agent Tracker shows, Darvish and Arrieta are just a few of the many starters still available; remarkably, the Cubs’ early agreement with Tyler Chatwood still paces this winter’s market for rotation contracts.
  • The Indians are readying for an arbitration hearing with righty Trevor Bauer, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer writes. Cleveland is utilizing a file-and-trial approach, says Hoynes, meaning a panel will decide whether the righty plays for $5.3MM or $6.52MM in the coming season. The results won’t just determine whether Bauer can pick up an additional $1.22MM for the coming season; his 2018 salary will also set a base rate for raises in his final two seasons of arb eligibility. As always, you can keep track of all the arbitration developments with MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker.

Latest On Pursuit Of Yu Darvish

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Jan. 23: The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney writes that there’s “a sense” that Darvish’s talks with interested parties have gained momentum recently. Moreover, Mooney writes that Darvish’s options are “not limited to the teams identified publicly” — meaning the Cubs, Twins, Rangers, Brewers, Dodgers and Yankees. Darvish remains a focus for the Cubs, according to Mooney, who adds that a reunion with Arrieta “appears to be a long shot.”

Meanwhile, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that a rival exec who has recently been in contact with the Twins expressed some doubt about Minnesota’s willingness to sign Darvish if it means pushing  into the $150MM territory.

Jan. 22, 10:45pm: The Cubs are “having active talks” with Darvish, according to a report from the Associated Press. That said, it’s also clear from the report that there is no agreement in place.

Speculation surrounding the connection between Darvish and the Cubs already increased earlier tonight, as it emerged that the club has a deal in place with catcher Chris Gimenez — who once forged a strong bond with Darvish when the two played with the Rangers.

2:01pm: Free agent righty Yu Darvish has received “at least” one five-year offer, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Crasnick does not specify if the five-year offer is the one which he’s reportedly received from the Brewers, though Milwaukee is indeed one of the teams in the mix for Darvish, per the report. The Twins, Rangers, Cubs and Dodgers are also in play at the moment, he adds.

Earlier this month, Darvish was reportedly choosing among six teams — the Twins, Rangers, Cubs, Yankees and Astros, with one mystery team added to the bunch by Darvish himself (on Twitter). The Dodgers were later reported to remain in the mix for Darvish, and it now appears that the Brewers have joined the pursuit while the Astros are out of the picture after their acquisition of Gerrit Cole.

There’s no mention of the dollars in Crasnick’s report, and the lack of context makes it difficult to assess the situation. Much has been made this offseason of teams preferring to sign free agents to shorter-term deals at a higher annual value, and if that’s the case with Darvish’s five-year offer, then perhaps the overall value of the deal isn’t that far from early offseason expectations. (Many pundits, MLBTR included, projected six years for Darvish at the beginning of the offseason.) If the AAV is on the low end of the spectrum, however, then it perhaps isn’t difficult to see why Darvish and his reps at Wasserman have yet to jump on the contract.

With just about three weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, there are still well over 100 free agents that need to find homes, so at some point one would have to imagine that either agents or clubs will begin to blink, setting the stage for a flurry of activity. There’s no evidence that Darvish and his agents are close to doing so at this juncture, though it stands to reason that his signing could have a trickle-down effect of sorts. Many of the same teams vying for his services have been linked to Alex Cobb and Jake Arrieta, and once those pieces fall into place, the remaining free-agent starters on the market could conceivably begin to come off the board.

NL Central Notes: Darvish, Brewers, Harrison, Cubs

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The Brewers have reportedly made an offer to free-agent righty Yu Darvish, but specifics of the proposal have yet to come to light. However, both Peter Gammons of Gammons Daily and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel have explored the topic to varying degrees since initial word of the Darvish offer broke in Japan. Gammons suggests that while the Brewers have been connected to both Darvish and Jake Arrieta, the team isn’t planning on making a big splash for the rotation unless owner Mark Attanasio “jumps in.” Haudricourt, meanwhile, notes that GM David Stearns remains mum on the topic while explaining that a big-splash, market-value offer from the Brewers appears unlikely.

Here’s more from Milwaukee and the rest of the NL Central:

  • There was a suggestion over the weekend that the Brewers were nearing some kind of trade, but ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick has since walked things back via Twitter. The team has “been working hard on trade possibilities” while also looking into some significant free agents, but Crasnick now says the team is “juggling a lot of scenarios” rather than closing in on anything in particular. In any event, it feels as if there will be some notable movement on the Milwaukee roster between now and the start of camp, though just what and when remain unclear.
  • There has been speculation all winter long that the Pirates would trade Josh Harrison, especially after the team dealt key veterans Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole and Harrison suggested he might like to be the next man out the door. But there are some contrary indications. Pirates general manager Neal Huntington has indicated the Pittsburgh organization is still angling to put a winner on the field in the near term, though he hardly ruled out a swap. And a rival GM tells Gammons (see the above link) that he thinks it’s actually increasingly likely that Harrison will remain aboard the Bucs’ ship. Since the bulk of the value brought back in the McCutchen and Cole trades is at or near the MLB level, the club may prefer to keep the useful Harrison in the fold, Gammons’s source suggests.
  • While the Cubs have given every indication that they are still looking at starters, current righty Kyle Hendricks says the rotation doesn’t need to be improved, as Steve Greenberg of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. The Cubs, after all, have four established starters along with the capable Mike Montgomery. Of course, the depth chart behind that group is questionable, and the team would no doubt prefer to upgrade over Montgomery — turning him into a useful reliever who’d be the first man up in the event of injury — rather than settling for a pure depth option.

Brewers Make Contract Offer To Yu Darvish

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The Brewers have made an official contract offer to Yu Darvish, according to reports from Yahoo Japan (hat tip to Kazuto Yamazaki for the translation).  Interestingly, the original link was retweeted by Darvish himself, whose response of a thinking-face emoji could be interpreted in a few different ways.

Darvish’s list of suitors had reportedly narrowed to a field of six teams: the Astros, Cubs, Rangers, Twins, Yankees, and an unknown sixth club referenced by Darvish in another tweet.  There was speculation that the sixth team could’ve been the Dodgers, Darvish’s most recent club, though perhaps the Brewers were the mystery team, depending on the timing of their offer.

Or, it also isn’t out of the question that Milwaukee has just entered the race for Darvish’s services, perhaps sensing an opening in the Darvish sweepstakes.  MLBTR projected Darvish for a six-year, $160MM contract at the start of the offseason, and it’s fair to wonder if the Brewers’ offer was anywhere near that figure given the uncertainty surrounding Darvish’s market.  The Astros, for instance, are likely no longer bidding for another top starter now that they’ve landed Gerrit Cole.  The Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, and Rangers were all either hoping to avoid the luxury tax threshold or simply weren’t keen on committing the payroll space required to sign Darvish.  With all of these teams somewhat hamstrung in their pursuit of the star right-hander, the Brewers could well have liked their chances in a bidding war against a fellow smaller-market team in Minnesota.

The idea of the Brewers and Twins dueling for top pitchers this offseason was actually posited by MLBTR’s Steve Adams back in early November, with Steve reasoning that both teams had the rotation needs, the long-term payroll room, and a revived hope of contention in 2018 to make the pursuit of a pitcher like Darvish or Jake Arrieta into a reality.  Despite some rumors about potential big-ticket signings or trade targets (i.e. Chris Archer), the Brewers have thus far made more modest pitching acquisitions in the form of Jhoulys Chacin and Yovani Gallardo.  Milwaukee has also been rumored to be discussing outfielders in trades, perhaps to make another surprising free agent splash in the form of pursuing Lorenzo Cain.

NL West Notes: Padres, Yelich, Giants, Dahl

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Some news and notes from around the NL West…

  • In a reader mailbag piece, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune casts doubt on the Padres’ chances of trading for Christian Yelich.  The team’s pursuit of Eric Hosmer indicates a desire to acquire a younger star player who will still be productive when the Padres return to contention, so Yelich (who is over two years younger than Hosmer) would theoretically fit the bill.  The Marlins, however, are understandably demanding elite prospects in any Yelich deal, and Lin doubts the Padres would part with top minor leaguers like Fernando Tatis Jr., Mackenzie Gore, or Michel Baez when San Diego’s own rebuild is still ongoing.  Lin’s piece is well worth a full read, as he answers several other questions about the Padres roster.
  • There hasn’t been any connection between Yu Darvish and the Giants this winter, though The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly (subscription required) opines that San Francisco should offer the free agent hurler a one-year deal in the $30MM range.  Essentially, Baggarly is proposing a very high-priced version of the “pillow contract” strategy, wherein Darvish would build more value in 2018 with an eye towards finally landing a major long-term deal next winter.  Such a contract would put the Giants over the luxury tax threshold for 2018, though they’d avoid another multi-year commitment while landing a star pitcher for a roster clearly designed to win now.
  • Rockies manager Bud Black shared some positive health news about David Dahl, as Black told the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters that Dahl should be “full go” at the start of Spring Training.  “He’s engaged, he’s running, he’s lifting weights, he’s swinging at 100 percent. Right now there are no concerns, and medically everybody feels really good about David,” Black said.  Dahl was limited to just 19 minor league games in 2017 due to a stress reaction in his rib cage, and his potential return gives Colorado another intriguing piece for its outfield.
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