Yu Darvish

NL Central Notes: Wilson, Cubs, Pham, Hurdle

By Steve Adams | January 9, 2018 at 6:56pm CDT

The struggles of left-hander Justin Wilson following a trade to the Cubs perplexed not only Chicago evaluators but execs throughout the league, writes Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (subscription required and highly recommended). Sharma spoke to both Cubs manager Joe Maddon and GM Jed Hoyer about Wilson’s troubles, and Maddon made it clear that he views Wilson as an important part of the ’pen for the upcoming 2018 season. Hoyer, meanwhile, acknowledged that some of the blame likely falls on the organization, especially considering that these sort of struggles have happened in the past. (Sharma points to Adam Warren as one prominent example.) “…[W]e’ve had a number of guys who have come in and struggled beyond what they’ve done in the past,” Hoyer tells Sharma. “That’s something we have looked at and will continue to look at and talk about how we ’onboard’ guys, so to speak. … We’ve been, candidly, somewhat frustrated by it and we’ll keep working on it.”

Twins Have Shown Interest In Chris Tillman

By Connor Byrne | January 7, 2018 at 6:52pm CDT

The Twins have checked in on free agent right-hander Chris Tillman this offseason, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (Twitter link). They’re on a shortlist of teams that have shown reported interest in the soon-to-be 30-year-old Tillman, who has also been on the radar of the Orioles (his organization from 2008-17) and Tigers.

Free agency came at an inopportune time for Tillman, who, despite a generally successful career, saw his stock take a serious hit during a nightmarish 2017. Thanks to shoulder troubles, Tillman didn’t take the mound for the Orioles until mid-May, and when he was able to pitch, he posted a 7.84 ERA/6.93 FIP across 93 innings (21 appearances, 16 starts). Along the way, Tillman experienced a drop in velocity and managed just 6.1 K/9 against 4.94 BB/9, with unappealing groundball and home run-to-fly ball rates of 39.5 percent and 20 percent, respectively. He was also among the majors’ absolute worst hurlers by expected weighted on-base average against (.398), per Statcast, which suggests his actual wOBA allowed (.419) was largely deserved.

On the heels of last season’s woeful showing, Tillman has reportedly been seeking a one-year deal with the hope of rebuilding his stock and faring better on the market next winter. The Twins, meanwhile, have been looking for answers for a rotation that lacks appealing options behind Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios. Fresh off their first playoff season since 2010, the Twins have generally aimed high in their search for starters, having shown interest in the likes of Yu Darvish, Chris Archer, Gerrit Cole and Jake Odorizzi. Darvish seems to be No. 1 on Minnesota’s wish list, and Wolfson tweets that the team’s still waiting for a resolution on his situation before it potentially moves to add other starters.

At this point, Tillman is obviously a far less exciting possibility than Darvish or any of the other aforementioned names. However, in the event Tillman bounces back to something resembling his pre-2017 level, his presence would benefit the Twins. Tillman’s not far removed from a four-year stretch (2013-16) in which he exceeded the 170-inning mark in each season and combined for a 3.91 ERA/4.27 FIP with 6.99 K/9 against 3.13 BB/9 over 758 2/3 frames.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Lynn, Cobb, Cashner, Soria, Bour, Swihart

By Mark Polishuk | January 7, 2018 at 1:08pm CDT

Here are some hot stove-related items from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required and recommended)…

The Nationals have interest in free agent righty Lance Lynn, though a signing would further put the team over the luxury tax threshold. Washington has been circling the starting pitching market all winter, with Jake Arrieta standing out as the top-tier name most often mentioned as a possibility due to the well-documented relationship between Nats ownership and Scott Boras (Arrieta’s agent). Arrieta, however, would be a considerably pricier signing than Lynn, though Lynn wouldn’t be cheap himself; MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projects Lynn for four years and $60MM.
Alex Cobb isn’t looking for a $20MM average annual value in his next contract, according to “officials on both sides of the Cubs’ negotiations with” the free agent right-hander. Reports that this inflated asking price spurred the Cubs’ interest in Yu Darvish as an alternative to Cobb are also not accurate, as per these same officials.
The Orioles recently met with Andrew Cashner and his representatives. Baltimore’s interest in Cashner dates back to at least the start of the offseason, and the O’s are still in sore need of arms to bolster their weak rotation. There hasn’t been a ton of buzz about Cashner on the rumor mill, though he is still reportedly looking for a three-year deal and there seems to be at least some interest between Cashner and the Rangers.
The Athletics also had interest in Joakim Soria before the Royals dealt him to the White Sox earlier this week. Soria would’ve given the A’s extra closing depth behind Blake Treinen, and Oakland could also have potentially looked to move Soria at the trade deadline. The A’s have already made two notable additions (Yusmeiro Petit and Emilio Pagan) to their bullpen mix this winter, and it stands to reason that they could still be looking for more veteran relief help after missing out on Soria.
Teams continue to ask the Marlins about Justin Bour, though the club wasn’t listening to offers about the first baseman during the Winter Meetings. Bour is one of Miami’s more intriguing long-term assets, just entering his arbitration years and coming off a season that saw him his .289/.366/.536 with 25 homers in 429 plate appearances. Bour’s age (he turns 3o in May) and the amount of depth at the first base position makes Bour a less-valuable trade chip for Miami than Christian Yelich or J.T. Realmuto, though obviously the Fish would still garner a lot of interest in Bour if they made him available.
Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the Sox “are not looking to move” Blake Swihart, despite trade interest from other teams. The last two seasons were essentially a writeoff for Swihart, due to defensive issues behind the plate and ankle injuries that limited him to just 91 minor league games and 25 MLB games in 2016-17. Still, the Sox haven’t given up on the former top prospect, with Dombrowski noting that Swihart’s positional versatility has helped add to his value for the team. While Dombrowski noted that “you could never say you would not move him or anyone else,” Swihart is “still part of our plans….Sometimes you get stuck with players who are out of options. In this case, because of his flexibility, I think we’ve got a little better chance of getting through it.”

AL Notes: Rangers, Darvish, Povse, Sisco

By Jeff Todd | January 3, 2018 at 8:12pm CDT

Thus far, the Rangers have mostly focused on open-market additions to their pitching staff. A turn to the trade market shouldn’t be expected, GM Jon Daniels tells MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. While there are a variety of enticing possible trade candidates floating around, Daniels says the organization is “making a concerted effort to be more disciplined and stay away from” moves that cost the team its “best young players.” Though the team’s top baseball decisionmaker wouldn’t rule out the trade avenue entirely, he said the team won’t be giving up notable future value for a short-term addition. Speaking of the Rangers’ moves to this point, Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News solicited a scouting breakdown of the new arms brought onto the staff.

Here’s more from the American League:

The Twins are “still trying to match schedules” to schedule a sit-down with free agent Yu Darvish, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (via Twitter). That’s somewhat odd to read at this stage of the winter; Darvish has already met with other teams, Minnesota has long labeled him a “priority,” and spring camp is just six weeks away. Nevertheless, at this point it seems little has changed in the situation: the Twins are still interested in the top-flight righty, though it’s difficult to determine a favorite in the Darvish sweepstakes. To that end, it’s worth noting that Jim Bowden of The Athletic wrote today that Minnesota “appears … prepared to offer a market deal” for Darvish (though it stands to reason that an in-person meeting would precede such an offer). Bowden also notes that the Astros are still in the Darvish mix, in part due to concerns over their ability to sign Dallas Keuchel long term, and he cites multiple sources in reporting that the Rangers are still alive in the bidding for Darvish as well.
Mariners righty Max Povse is heading back to a rotation role in 2018, as Greg Johns of MLB.com writes. While there had been some expectation that Povse would thrive as a multi-inning reliever, GM Jerry Dipoto says that the youngster’s move to the pen didn’t come with “the uptick in the stuff” the team hoped. That said, the organization still likes him as a starter. Dipoto says he was encouraged by Povse’s work in the AFL — he worked to a 4.56 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 25 2/3 innings — and takes the blame for pushing Povse into the upper minors and ultimately the majors as a reliever.
Rich Dubroff of PressBoxOnline.com examines whether the Orioles might roll with young catcher Chance Sisco out of camp. Baltimore is still looking at veterans, though it seems the organization is resolved to rely primarily upon Caleb Joseph if Sisco doesn’t run away with the job. Assuming that any players acquired from outside the organization are mostly reserve/depth options, it could well come down to a camp battle. As Dubroff writes, the MLB coaching staff has not yet had an extended opportunity to see Sisco in action.

Cubs Rumblings: Arrieta, Darvish, Cobb, Cole, Yelich

By Connor Byrne | January 2, 2018 at 9:07pm CDT

The latest on the North Siders comes from Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago…

To this point, the Cubs and Cardinals have shown the most interest in free agent right-hander Jake Arrieta, according to Levine. The Cubs reportedly may be willing to offer a four-year, $110MM contract to the soon-to-be 32-year-old Arrieta, who mostly thrived with the team from 2013-17.
Elsewhere on the pitching market, the Cubs remain in contact with Yu Darvish and Alex Cobb, per Levine, though he casts doubt on them being the favorites to sign the latter. They’re wary of Cobb’s asking price, which appears to be in the $17MM to $19MM range per annum, Levine relays.
Along with the previously reported Chris Archer, the Cubs are interested in swinging a trade for Pirates righty Gerrit Cole, Levine writes. This is the first reported connection of the offseason between the Cubs and Cole, who has mostly been linked to the Yankees. Talks between the Yankees and Pirates simmered last month, though, which could pave the way for another team to swoop in and land the 27-year-old. Given that Chicago and Pittsburgh are in the same division, the Cubs are obviously quite familiar with Cole. The Scott Boras client is under control for the next two seasons, and he’ll earn a projected $7.5MM in 2018.
Looking beyond starting pitching possibilities, Levine doesn’t rule out more additions to the Cubs’ bullpen or position player group. With Wade Davis having signed with the Rockies, the Cubs could be in the market for a closer if they don’t want to turn the ninth-inning reins to either of the just-signed Brandon Morrow–Steve Cishek tandem or another in-house option. But whether the team bids on a top free agent like Greg Holland or Addison Reed could depend on how much spending room it has left after it picks up another starter, per Levine. Further, it’s possible the Cubs could try to trade for Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich, who would likely cost them fellow center fielder Albert Almora Jr. in a deal, Levine contends. He also lists free agent center fielder Lorenzo Cain as a name to watch for the Cubs.

Free Agent Notes: Hosmer, JDM, Arrieta, Cards, Twins, Abad

By Jeff Todd | January 2, 2018 at 1:29pm CDT

In his column today on the molasses-slow free agent market, Bob Nightengale of USA Today drops a few nuggets of information. The Padres’ offer to free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer would promise him seven years, says Nightengale. Meanwhile, top open-market slugger J.D. Martinez is sitting on a five-year offer from the Red Sox. In other chatter, Nightengale suggests the Cubs could be willing to go as high as $110MM over four years to bring back Jake Arrieta. Of course, the teams and players just cited have likely known one another’s positions for some time now, and these stalemates have yet to be resolved. These details also fall in line with what has been reported previously about the respective situations, though they are surely interesting data points as we seek to divine when and how the free agent dam will finally break.

Free Agent Faceoff: Yu Darvish vs. Jake Arrieta

By Steve Adams | December 25, 2017 at 4:36pm CDT

While the relief market has been highly active over the past month, there’s been little activity at the top end of the market for free agent starters. Heading into the winter, Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta stood as the top two available starters, and neither has come to terms on a new contract for the 2018 campaign. Both seem like candidates to pull in nine-figure deals, even with fairly quiet market to date, though opinions vary as to which is the better investment.

Both Darvish and Arrieta are 31 years of age, though Arrieta will pitch all of the 2018 season at the age of 32, while Darvish won’t turn 32 until next August. Arrieta, though, doesn’t have a major arm injury on his recent track record, whereas Darvish missed all of the 2015 season and part of the 2016 campaign due to Tommy John surgery.

Darvish, of course, left a poor final impression on fans when he was tattooed by the Astros in a pair of postseason outings, though SI’s Tom Verducci was told by an anonymous Astros player that Darvish was tipping his pitches in both of those outings. Prior to that ugly finish, Darvish was trending up, pitching to a 3.10 ERA with a 75-to-14 K/BB ratio in 11 starts as a Dodger (between the regular season and the first two rounds of postseason play). Overall, he finished out the year with a 3.86 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9 and a 40.9 percent ground-ball rate.

Despite the recent Tommy John operation, Darvish averaged 94.2 mph on his heater — his best mark to date in the Majors — and cleared 200 innings when factoring in postseason play. Darvish has been an All-Star in each of his four full healthy MLB seasons, and he owns a 3.27 ERA with more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings over dating back to his second big league season. In 832 1/3 Major League innings, Darvish has been worth roughly 19 WAR per both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs.

Arrieta, meanwhile, had one of the great hot streaks in MLB history in 2015 when he rode a staggeringly dominant second half to National League Cy Young honors. In Arrieta’s final 147 innings of that 2015 campaign, Arrieta pitched to an unthinkable 0.86 ERA with 147 strikeouts against 27 walks issued. Darvish cannot lay claim to a run nearly that dominant at any point in his career. (Few pitchers can, of course.)

Certainly, though, Arrieta’s dominance has not been limited to that stretch of 20 starts. In parts of five seasons with the Cubs — a total of 803 big league innings — Arrieta logged a 2.73 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and considerably above-average ground-ball tendencies. His innings total has declined in consecutive seasons, though, and Arrieta’s 92.1 mph average fastball in 2017 was the lowest of his career. Arrieta’s home-run and ground-ball rates trended in the wrong direction this past season, as was the case with his velocity.

Arrieta does come with more postseason experience and success than Darvish, though that may not carry as much weight with the game’s increasingly analytically-inclined front offices. He’ll also cost his new team a draft pick in 2018, whereas Darvish isn’t tied to compensation due to the fact that he was traded midseason.

MLBTR projected nine-figure commitments for each of the two in free agency this offseason, though Darvish topped our 2017-18 MLB free agent rankings, which were based on earning potential. There have been reports suggesting that Arrieta and agent Scott Boras are seeking upwards of $200MM, while others have suggested Stephen Strasburg’s seven-year, $175MM deal as a target for Darvish and his reps at Wasserman. Of course, all agents are going to aim high early in negotiations, and those early targets don’t necessarily line up with the dollar figures that the two stars will ultimately command.

Each pitcher has his merits, and there are various cases to be made in favor of one over the other. With all of that said, I’ll open this up to MLBTR readers to voice their opinions (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…

Which free agent starter would you rather sign?

Yu Darvish 60.19% (10,426 votes)

Jake Arrieta 39.81% (6,895 votes)

Total Votes: 17,321

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Astros, Rangers Reportedly Set To Meet With Yu Darvish

By Steve Adams | December 24, 2017 at 11:48am CDT

DEC. 24: The Rangers remain in contact with Wolfe, writes Wilson, who adds that Darvish hasn’t ruled out a reunion with the club. However, it’s up in the air whether Rangers ownership would pay the necessary amount to bring back Darvish, Wilson suggests.

DEC. 19, 10:35pm: Wilson reports that Darvish and Daniels are planning to have dinner this week, but Darvish’s agents will not be in attendance and the two do not plan to discuss business. The two are simply having dinner, per Wilson, adding that Daniels has continually maintained the stance that Texas will not play at the top of the free-agent market. The dinner was actually planned for November but was pushed back to this point. Darvish himself confirmed as much by quote-tweeting Wilson and adding the comment, “Tomorrow night!”

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports the same sentiment, noting that Daniels and Darvish never had much of a chance to have a conversation when Darvish was traded to the Dodgers. Grant likens the meeting to an “exit interview” and emphasizes that Darvish’s lead agent, Joel Wolfe, will not be present.

All of that said, it’s still a bit of an eyebrow-raiser to see Daniels, whose rotation is rife with uncertainty, meet with the top free-agent pitcher on the market under the guise that no business will be discussed.

6:41pm: Darvish is set to meet with the Rangers after he sits down with the Astros, a club source tells Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link). That seemingly runs counter to what GM Jon Daniels told Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram earlier today, as Wilson tweeted that Daniels said there was no meeting planned with Darvish at that point.

Obviously, the Rangers are more familiar with Darvish than any other club, and there’s certainly a need in their rotation. Texas has added Mike Minor as a potential starting option this winter and has also swung a trade for Matt Moore and signed Doug Fister. Still, there’s room for improvement among a shaky group of Texas starters.

What remains to be seen, though, is exactly how much payroll capacity the Rangers have remaining. Texas is reportedly aiming for its 2018 payroll to come in around the $155MM mark, and signing Darvish would almost certainly take them beyond that point, barring a heavily backloaded deal.

The Rangers could see a substantial amount of cash come off the books after the 2018 season, depending on Cole Hamels’ option and Elvis Andrus’ opt-out provision, but a long-term Darvish deal would likely mean boosting their commitments for 2020 season north of $85MM. Certainly, finding a taker for Shin-Soo Choo’s albatross contract would alleviate some of that crunch, though that’s a daunting proposition for the Texas front office.

5:00pm: One day after Yu Darvish reportedly met face-to-face with the Cubs, he’s sitting down for a similar meeting with the Astros, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports. Houston joins the Cubs and Twins as teams that have now been prominently linked to Darvish, who topped MLBTR’s free agent rankings at the beginning of the offseason. The Rangers, Heyman writes, are “monitoring” the Darvish market.

The Astros, of course, got an up-close look at Darvish for years when he fronted the division-rival Rangers’ rotation and when they clobbered him in a pair of World Series starts. Though that rough pair of outings was obviously a sour note upon which to end an otherwise solid season, the tiny sample of two starts against a powerhouse offense isn’t likely to alter his perception much among big league teams. (Notably, one unnamed Astros player revealed to Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci that Darvish was tipping his pitches in both World Series outings.)

Houston isn’t exactly in dire need of a rotation upgrade, as their current group of Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Charlie Morton and Brad Peacock is already strong. Houston also still has Collin McHugh as an option for the back end of the rotation as well as a number of upper-level prospects (e.g. Francis Martes, David Paulino) that could eventually emerge as rotation options.

That said, adding Darvish to a rotation that already includes Verlander, Keuchel, McCullers and Morton would make for a potent starting five. Peacock thrived in a multi-inning relief role on multiple occasions in 2017 and could function in a similar capacity in 2018, should the ’Stros ultimately elect to add a significant arm to their rotation. Picking up Darvish could also bode well for the club in the long term, as both Keuchel and Morton are set to become free agents at the conclusion of the 2018 season.

From a pure payroll standpoint, Houston can certainly absorb a significant multi-year deal. The Astros do have just shy of $150MM committed to the 2017 payroll (including projected arbitration salaries), but that number plummets to $56MM on the books for 2019 when Keuchel, Morton, Evan Gattis, Tony Sipp and Marwin Gonzalez are all eligible for free agency.

[Related: Houston Astros depth chart and payroll outlook]

The ’Stros will no doubt look to lock up Jose Altuve beyond the 2019 campaign, when their control over the 2017 AL MVP runs out, though, and they probably want to keep George Springer around beyond 2020 as well. Those will be considerations when deciding whether to offer a long-term deal to any high-priced free agent, though it’s worth pointing out that Houston only has $21.5MM committed to the 2020 roster at present and does not have a single guaranteed contract for the 2021 season on its current books.

Quick Hits: Lagares, Cubs, Darvish, Arrieta, Scott

By Connor Byrne | December 23, 2017 at 10:31pm CDT

The Mets are listening to offers for center fielder Juan Lagares, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. However, Puma notes that there’s skepticism within the industry about a trade coming together. New York may have to eat some of the $15.5MM left on Lagares’ contract in order to move him, suggests Puma, who points out that’s not something the team’s often willing to do. The Mets are already low on available spending room as it is – they may only have around $10MM to play with, per Puma – and that’s without having addressed one of second or third base (depending on where Asdrubal Cabrera plays in 2018) or adding a first baseman/outfielder.

As far as free agent right-handers go, the Cubs have shown more interest this offseason in adding Yu Darvish than re-signing Jake Arrieta. Regardless, the club doesn’t appear likely to engage in “a steep bidding war” for either, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. And while the 31-year-old Darvish may land the bigger contract this winter, Wittenmyer argues that the decorated Arrieta – who’s five months older – could end up as the better bet.
Former major league outfielder/designated hitter Luke Scott expressed interest in making a comeback at the Winter Meetings earlier this month, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. The former Astro, Oriole and Ray hasn’t played in the majors since 2013, though, and he last suited up at the minor league level in 2015. The lifetime .258/.340/.481 hitter will turn 40 in June. If he can’t resume his playing career, Scott’s open to becoming a hitting coach, Kubatko adds.
Free agent righty Tyler Wilson is nearing a deal with an unnamed team, Kubatko relays in the same piece. To this point, Wilson has spent his pro career with the Orioles, who chose him in the 10th round of the 2011 draft. He saw action in Baltimore as a swingman in each of the previous three seasons and posted a 5.22 ERA, 4.77 K/9 and 2.42 BB/9 across 145 1/3 innings (42 appearances, 19 starts).

Yankees Rumors: Cole, Darvish, Ellsbury

By Steve Adams | December 21, 2017 at 9:04am CDT

It seems the Yankees and Pirates have lost momentum toward a prospective deal involving righty Gerrit Cole. Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, via Twitter, talks have “cooled” since the Winter Meetings wrapped up. While Cole’s talent would be a welcome addition to just about any big league rotation, the Bucs are reported to have a lofty asking price on the former No. 1 overall pick, and the Yankees don’t necessarily need to feel urgency to finalize a deal. New York has already agreed to bring CC Sabathia back on a one-year pact, and he’ll join Luis Severino, Sonny Gray, Masahiro Tanaka and Jordan Montgomery in a mix of quality rotation options (with prospects Justus Sheffield and Chance Adams looming in the upper minors).

A few notes out of the Bronx…

Rosenthal also writes in a notes column (subscription required/recommended) that despite that group of starting options, the Yankees have some interest in free-agent righty Yu Darvish. A serious pursuit could require shedding some other salaries, as the Yankees have a known preference to dip under the luxury tax threshold and surely would like to enter the season with some degree of leeway in that regard, should the need for in-season additions on the trade market arise.
While Darvish may seem a curious fit given that quality group of options, George A. King III of the New York Post also hears that the Yanks do have some degree of interest. New York is monitoring the Darvish market to see if his price comes down at all, per King, who adds that the Yankees do still want to add another starter even with the aforementioned arms in tow. Even if Darvish’s price drops to a lower level than expected, the Yankees would likely still need to move Jacoby Ellsbury’s salary (or a significant portion of it) in order to work him into the mix and remain under the tax barrier.
Jacoby Ellsbury “might consider” waiving his no-trade clause for a few teams, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, who suggests the Giants as a possibility in that regard. That’s probably music to the ears of many Yankees fans, though it’s worth noting that there’s no indication that the Giants would want any part of Ellsbury’s enormous contract. San Francisco has a need for a center fielder, but the Giants have their own luxury tax concerns. Even if the Yankees are willing to absorb a significant amount of the remaining $68MM+ that Ellsbury is owed, there’s no indication that the Giants view him as an upgrade. San Francisco could, for instance, simply sign a player in the Jarrod Dyson mold to a considerably shorter-term deal, knowing that he’d be a vastly superior defensive option with lesser financial risk.

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