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Draft Signings: 7/20/21

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Today’s notable signings of Day Two draftees:

  • The Reds have signed second-rounder Andrew Abbott to a $1.3MM deal, reports Carlos Collazo of Baseball America (Twitter link). That’s just a bit below the slot value that accompanies the 53rd overall pick. Abbott, a senior left-hander from the University of Virginia, gets good life on his low-mid 90’s fastball and missed plenty of bats in one of college baseball’s top conferences. Abbott’s 162 strikeouts this season trailed only top ten draftees Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker in Division I baseball.
  • The Rangers have agreed to a $1MM deal with third-rounder Cameron Cauley, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). That’s a bit north of the $857.4K slot value associated with the 73rd selection. A high school shortstop from Texas, the right-handed hitting Cauley was ranked #84 on Baseball America’s pre-draft rankings. BA writes that the Texas Tech commit is a good athlete with advanced bat-to-ball skills but limited power projection.
  • The Cardinals have signed Competitive Balance Round B selection Ryan Holgate for $875K, reports Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s a bit below the slot value that comes with the #70 selection. A power-hitting corner outfielder from the University of Arizona, Holgate checked in at #107 on BA’s rankings.
  • The Padres inked Competitive Balance Round B selection Robert Gasser for $884.2K, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s full slot value for the #71 overall pick. A left-handed pitcher from the University of Houston, Gasser checked in at #63 on BA’s rankings. He attracted attention from evaluators after experiencing a velocity spike into the mid-90’s this year to accompany a solid slider.
  • The Braves went well overslot to sign seventh-rounder A.J. Smith-Shawver. The righty from a Texas high school received a $997.5K bonus, reports Callis. That’s nearly $800K above slot to convince him to pass on a two-sport commitment (baseball and football) to Texas Tech. Smith-Shawver landed at #318 in BA’s rankings, drawing praise for a mid-90’s fastball and solid curveball.

Padres Sign Second Round Pick James Wood To Overslot Deal

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The Padres have signed second round draft pick James Wood to a $2.6MM signing bonus, reports Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. That’s well north of the $1.1027MM slot value associated with the #62 overall selection.

In fact, Wood’s bonus comes in higher than that of first rounder Jackson Merrill, who inked a $1.8MM deal last night. A lefty-hitting outfielder from a Florida academy, Wood is seen as one of the more high-variance prospects in this year’s class. Baseball America slotted Wood the #35 prospect in their pre-draft rankings, pointing to his elite raw power and surprising athleticism for his size (listed at 6’6″, 230) in lauding his upside. BA notes there’s plenty of trepidation about Wood’s swing-and-miss tendencies, though, and he was rated lower on the rankings of Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (51st) and Keith Law of the Athletic (outside the top 101).

San Diego’s placing a substantial bet on Wood’s physical gifts. The overslot bonus will buy him away from his commitment to Mississippi State University.

Padres Sign First-Round Pick Jackson Merrill

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The Padres have come to terms on a deal with first-round pick Jackson Merrill, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). He’ll receive a $1.8MM signing bonus that checks in well shy of the $2.5701MM slot value associated with the #27 overall selection.

Of course, Merrill’s willingness to sign for less than slot value played a role in the Friars selecting him in that spot in the first place. Each of Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted Merrill between 72nd and 101st in their pre-draft rankings. It’s safe to presume Padres’ evaluators are higher on Merrill than those public prognosticators, but the Friars were no doubt aware he’d be willing to take an underslot deal in the first round to forego his commitment to the University of Kentucky.

Evaluators write that Merrill came on strong towards the end of his high school season. The Maryland native has a prototype infielder’s build with some power projection and bat speed. BA and Law express some trepidation about the consistency of his hit tool, though, and all three outlets agree he’s likely to outgrow shortstop down the line.

Merrill’s underslot agreement saves a little less than $800K for the Padres to reallocate to some of their later selections. Second-rounder James Wood is the only other prep player among San Diego’s top ten picks, so it’s likely he’ll wound up with a bonus significantly above the $1.1MM slot value associated with the 62nd pick.

Padres Activate Yu Darvish

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The Padres announced they’ve reinstated ace Yu Darvish from the 10-day injured list to start this evening’s game against the Braves. Righty Miguel Díaz was optioned to Triple-A El Paso to open active roster space. Additionally, righty Jordan Humphreys has been passed through outright waivers and assigned to Double-A San Antonio. The move opens a spot on the Padres 40-man roster.

Darvish landed on the IL just before the All-Star Break with left hip inflammation. It was never expected to be a lengthy absence, and he’ll indeed make his return after a minimal stay. Last year’s NL Cy Young award runner-up is having another very strong season. He’s tossed 105 innings of 3.09 ERA/3.37 SIERA ball this year, earning his fifth career All-Star nod in the process.

Humphreys has yet to pitch in the majors, but he’s bounced between a few teams in recent years. A well-regarded prospect early in his career with the Mets’ organization, he missed much of the 2018-19 campaigns after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Acquired by the Giants last summer, Humphreys went to the Indians then back to San Francisco on waivers before landing with San Diego on another claim in early March.

The Friars have successfully gotten Humphreys through the wire, so he’ll remain in the organization without requiring a 40-man roster spot. He has pitched 10 2/3 innings with San Antonio already, managing just a 9.28 ERA with a below-average 13.2% strikeout rate.

Padres/Nationals Game Suspended Due To Shooting Outside Nationals Park

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11:14PM: The police have released an update saying that three people were injured, rather than four.  All three received wounds that aren’t thought to be life-threatening.  (Details from Jesse Dougherty, Andrew Golden, and Clarence Williams of The Washington Post.)

9:50PM: Tonight’s game between the Padres and Nationals was suspended in the bottom of the sixth inning due to a shooting that took place near Nationals Park.  Gunshots from outside the park (near the third base gates) could be heard inside the ballpark, and stadium employees told The Washington Post’s Sam Fortier that the incident was a drive-by shooting.  According to the Washington D.C. Police Department (Twitter links), two people were shot, and “two additional victims associated with this incident walked into area hospitals for treatment of gunshot wounds.”

The sound of the gunshots brought play inside Nationals Park to a halt, and players and fans took shelter inside the dugouts and on the stadium concourses, while other fans rushed to exit the stadium.  Announcements were made over the public address system informing fans of the situation and asking everyone to remain in the park; after several minutes, fans were instructed to make an orderly exit out of the ballpark’s center field and right field gates.

The game will resume tomorrow at 12:05pm CT, with the Padres and Nationals finishing the final three innings before a break.  Sunday’s originally scheduled game (which had been set to start at 12:05PMCT) will then get underway.

Padres Reinstate Blake Snell, Drew Pomeranz From 10-Day IL; Place Ryan Weathers On 10-Day IL

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The Padres have reinstated left-handers Blake Snell and Drew Pomeranz from the 10-day injured list, the team announced.  Right-hander James Norwood was optioned to Triple-A, and yesterday San Diego officially placed southpaw Ryan Weathers on the 10-day IL due to a right ankle fracture.

Both Snell and Pomeranz are returning as expected after minimal 10-day IL stints, and Snell (who had gastroentiritis) is lined up to start tonight’s game with the Nationals.  Pomeranz had inflammation in his throwing forearm, though this somewhat ominous injury wasn’t considered particularly serious, as Padres manager Jayce Tingler indicated to reporters at the time of Pomeranz’s placement.

The Padres will welcome all the arms they can get in the wake of multiple pitching injuries, with Weathers representing the latest absence.  On the plus side, Weathers’ ankle issue seems a little less serious than it first appeared when he had to be helped off the field last Sunday, and the left-hander might potentially be able to return before July is over.  Even with Snell back and Weathers perhaps not a long-term concern, San Diego is still expected to focus on adding pitching help prior to the July 30 trade deadline.

Padres’ Ryan Weathers Suffers Ankle Injury

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TODAY: Weathers fractured “a small accessory piece of bone in the back of his ankle,” Lin tweets, and the southpaw could be able to return before the end of July, though “his recovery will depend on pain tolerance.”  On the plus side, Weathers is able to walk without any seeming ill effects just four days after his initial injury.

JULY 12: Lin reports that Weathers avoided a major injury and is expected to be out a matter of weeks rather than months. A specific diagnosis or timeline has yet to be announced by the club.

JULY 11, 7:50pm: Weathers’ knee and ankle look to be unharmed, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets, though the left-hander still has to undergo tests on his Achilles.

5:00pm: Weathers’ injury is actually to his right foot, according to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (Twitter link).

4:49pm: Padres southpaw Ryan Weathers was removed from today’s game after suffering an apparent right knee injury.  In the third inning, Weathers fielded a bunt grounder from Jon Gray of the Rockies and tried to tag Gray on the first base line, though Weathers appeared to jam his leg while taking an awkward step to avoid a full-on collision.  Weathers was in obvious pain and needed to be helped off the field.

At the very least, Weathers looks slated for a trip to the injured list, and there would certainly appear to be worry that the injury is serious enough to end his season.  Today marked Weathers’ 11th start of 17 overall appearances for the 21-year-old this season, as the rookie left-hander has quickly become an important part of San Diego’s pitching mix.  Weathers has a 2.91 ERA through 58 2/3 innings, delivering good numbers despite allowing a lot of hard contact and only a 17.87% strikeout rate.

Most importantly for the Padres, however, Weathers has been able to deliver results and fill innings amidst a number of other injury absences within the rotation.  Adrian Morejon was lost to Tommy John surgery in April and Dinelson Lamet’s arm issues have limited him to 34 1/3 innings.  Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are also currently on the 10-day IL with more minor injuries, though the Padres will surely welcome the All-Star break to get their pitching staff figured out.

Assuming Darvish and Snell are able to return in short order, an IL absence for Weathers will leave the Padres with only four starters (Darvish, Snell, Chris Paddack, Joe Musgrove) and not much in the way of experienced depth.  There is some hope that Lamet might be able to return relatively soon after the break, but that is no guarantee given how Lamet has been hampered by injuries all year.  While the team might turn to bullpen games or an opener/bulk pitcher format in the short term, a Weathers injury will only exacerbate the Padres’ need for starting pitching help at the trade deadline.

Padres Appear Set For (Another) Active Trade Deadline

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The Padres, by most measures, are a solid offensive club. San Diego ranks tenth among MLB teams in total runs scored (428) and in wRC+ (101). They’re 13th in team batting average, eighth in team on-base percentage and 13th in slugging percentage. Throw out the pitching staff to focus only on position players, and they jump to 11th in average, sixth in OBP, 11th in slugging and sixth in wRC+. There’s room for improvement, but the lineup isn’t some kind of fatal flaw for this club.

Despite a mostly solid offense, however, general manager A.J. Preller suggested he’ll be looking for areas to bolster the lineup in the coming weeks (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Preller, while noting that some players on his club have enjoyed “real good performances” so far in 2021, noted that the group as a whole has yet to “click” in the same manner it did in 2020. “Those will be the things we’ll be talking about over the next couple weeks,” Preller told the Padres beat this weekend.

It’s certainly not an impassioned declaration that major changes are coming, but it’s notable this time of year when any top decision-maker publicly cites potential areas of improvement. Preller didn’t list a specific position of focus, but looking up and down the lineup, there are a few spots that are obviously of greater need than others.

Chief among them is at first base, where Eric Hosmer is again in the midst of an underwhelming showing at the plate. The 31-year-old is hitting .266/.323/.375, which isn’t egregiously poor but is still below league average (95 wRC+). In right field, Wil Myers is hitting .253/.330/.428, which is solidly above-average, but his bat faded after a monster showing during the season’s first month.

Meanwhile, Austin Nola has missed most of the season on the injured list, which has contributed to the Padres having one of baseball’s least-productive catching units in the game. The bench is also thin. Offseason multi-year deals for Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar have yet to pay dividends, and the Friars continue to dedicate a roster spot to the out-of-options Jorge Mateo despite the fact that he’s only tallied 88 plate appearances in 52 games (with a .195/.241/.280 batting line). Nola recently embarked on a rehab assignment, so the Padres may have some hope for reinforcements behind the plate sooner than later.

The rest of the Padres’ lineup has been excellent. Tommy Pham has shaken off a slow start and rebounded with a .301/.402/.526 showing in his past couple hundred plate appearances. Trent Grisham has continued his 2020 breakout, as has Jake Cronenworth. Manny Machado is hitting .267/.345/.479 with 15 home runs, and Fernando Tatis Jr. has clubbed 28 home runs while slashing .286/.364/.686. None are going to be displaced by a trade acquisition, barring some sort of injury.

It’s worth noting that Myers has been swinging a better bat over the past couple weeks as well, but inconsistent production has been a recurring theme throughout the life of his contract extension in San Diego. A player capable of splitting time between the outfield corners and first base would make plenty of sense for San Diego, as would a utility option that could at least be expected to provide something resembling average production.

This morning, Dennis Lin of The Athletic once again links the Padres to Rangers slugger Joey Gallo, noting that Gallo’s ability to play first base is part of his appeal for San Diego. The Rangers’ asking price on Gallo, however, is characterized as “daunting” and can only have increased after Gallo has become the poster boy for offense in the post-Spider Tack crackdown; since June 4, Gallo is hitting .308/.479/.838 with 15 long balls in 121 plate appearances.

Gallo surely isn’t the only potential trade target who could contribute at first base and in the outfield corners, of course. The Cubs are widely expected to shop Kris Bryant now that they’ve shifted to a deadline seller, and Baltimore’s Trey Mancini has been a possible trade candidate all season. The Marlins’ Adam Duvall is primarily an outfielder but has a few hundred innings of first base experience.

The list of potential offensive needs on its own would position the Padres as a potential feature team at this year’s deadline, but that’s only the beginning of their needs. Starting pitching was expected to be a strength for this club, but Padres starters are a more middle-of-the-pack unit than the dominant one expected after a series of flashy offseason pickups.

Blake Snell hasn’t pitched up to expectations, and Joe Musgrove has tailed off a bit after a dominant start. Yu Darvish is skipping a well-deserved All-Star nod to nurse a back injury that recently landed him on the injured list. Young Ryan Weathers just departed the team’s first-half finale with a leg/foot injury. Adrian Morejon had Tommy John surgery earlier in the year. And as Lin points out, top prospect MacKenzie Gore is back at the team’s Spring Training complex for further work on his mechanics after a rough start to the season in Triple-A.

While Weathers hasn’t technically been placed on the IL yet, the only healthy starters on the Padres’ roster at the moment are Musgrove, Chris Paddack and the recently promoted Reiss Knehr. Considering the veritable embarrassment of riches with which the Padres entered the season, from a rotation standpoint, it’s a bit remarkable to suggest they’ll be in the market for more starters at the deadline — but that indeed appears to be the case.

Preller indicated to Lin and others that the first steps in patching the rotation would be internal promotions (e.g. Knehr), but the GM also acknowledged that he and his staff will “keep talking to clubs” to see what’s out there in terms of upgrades. There’s no indication that payroll or the luxury tax would be any sort of issue, but it’s at least worth noting that after so many gaudy acquisitions in recent years, the Friars are sitting about $6MM shy of the $210MM threshold.

A year ago, the Padres were baseball’s most active deadline team, striking deals for Mike Clevinger, Austin Nola, Austin Adams, Mitch Moreland and Jason Castro. Preller followed that up with a trade-happy offseason as well, scooping up Darvish, Snell and Musgrove in an effort to create a dominant rotation that could pair with a deep lineup.

Given all that activity, it probably wouldn’t be a surprise to see yet another whirlwind trade season from Preller even with a healthy rotation and a fully operational lineup. However, the broad slate of setbacks on the starting staff and some uneven performances at first base, in right field and off the bench leave the Padres with a wide variety of paths to improve this club. And history tells us that Preller isn’t likely to sit back and hope his organizational depth will save the day.

Padres Place Yu Darvish On 10-Day Injured List

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The Padres announced that right-hander Yu Darvish has been placed on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to July 9) due to left hip inflammation.  Righty Nabil Crismatt was called up from Triple-A El Paso to take Darvish’s spot on the active roster.

It was already known that Darvish wouldn’t be pitching in the All-Star Game, after he was named to the team for the fifth time in his MLB career.  Assuming his IL stint is a minimum 10 days, Darvish won’t miss a start, factoring in both the two days of retroactive placement already banked and the four-day All-Star break.  The righty is currently lined up to start San Diego’s fourth game of the second half, a road game against the Braves on July 19.

Of course, it shouldn’t be assumed that Darvish will be immediately ready for that start, considering that he left his last outing on Thursday due to back and hip tightness.  Darvish was touched for six runs in three innings in that start against the Nationals, easily the worst start of what has been an impressive debut season in San Diego for the veteran hurler.  Darvish has a 3.09 ERA/3.36 SIERA over 105 innings for the Padres, with a strong 29.8% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate.  There is a lot of red ink in general on Darvish’s Statcast card, but his elite 99th-percentile fastball spin rate stands out as particularly noteworthy.

Darvish isn’t a pitcher the Padres can afford to be without for too long, especially considering that Blake Snell and Dinelson Lamet are also still on the 10-day IL (though tentatively expected to return after the All-Star break).  Starting pitching was already thought to be a priority for the Padres heading into the trade deadline, and that need will only increase if there is any uncertainty about Darvish’s readiness.

Padres Place Blake Snell, Drew Pomeranz On Injured List

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5:43 pm: Fortunately, it seems Pomeranz’s IL stint is more precautionary than a sign of long-term concern. Manager Jayce Tingler told reporters (including Dennis Lin of the Athletic) the team hoped he’d return when first eligible on July 17.

5:07 pm: The Padres announced they’ve placed left-hander Blake Snell on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to July 6, due to gastroentiritis. Fellow lefty Drew Pomeranz has gone on the 10-day IL, retroactive to July 7, with inflammation in his throwing forearm. Right-hander Miguel Díaz was recalled from Triple-A El Paso, while righty Reiss Knehr (previously reported) was officially selected to the big league roster to start tonight’s game in Snell’s place. To create a 40-man roster spot for Knear, righty Aaron Northcraft has been designated for assignment.

Snell has been bothered by the stomach illness for the past week-plus. He originally landed on the IL on June 30, but returned to pitch four innings last Sunday. Snell still hasn’t fully recovered, though, and he was unable to start tonight’s game. He’ll be eligible to return for next weekend’s series against the Nationals; with the All-Star Break coming up, it’s possible he’ll only miss tonight’s start.

Pomeranz’s injury sounds a bit more concerning, since any issues with a pitcher’s forearm figure to cause some alarm. There’s no indication at this point the southpaw is facing any sort of extended absence, but it’s another issue in a season that hasn’t been kind to Pomeranz from a health perspective. He dealt with forearm tightness in Spring Training and missed about six weeks between May and June with shoulder and lat troubles. That has kept the star reliever to 17 innings this year, in which he’s worked to a 1.59 ERA with a strong 31.4% strikeout rate and an elevated 12.9% walk percentage.

The Padres selected Northcraft in late April, setting up the right-hander to make his MLB debut at age 30. He’s only allowed two runs over his first eight big league innings, but he’s issued eight walks while striking out just five. Northcraft hasn’t had much success at Triple-A El Paso, working to an 8.10 ERA across 13 1/3 frames. He has, however, induced grounders on more than half the balls in play against him at both the Triple-A and MLB levels.

The Padres will have a week to trade Northcraft or expose him to waivers. If another team acquires him, he can be freely optioned for the remainder of this season.

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