Padres Agree To Terms With First-Rounder C.J. Abrams On Below-Slot Deal
1:27 PM: Abrams’ bonus will be $5.2MM, per Jim Callis of MLB.com, over $500K fewer than the $5.74MM slot value for the selection.
1:02 PM: The Padres have agreed to terms with their first-round (sixth overall) selection C.J. Abrams, per a team report.
Abrams, a 6’2 shortstop from Roswell, GA, is said to have top-of-the-scale speed and a legitimate chance to stick at the position as he progresses through the minors. MLB.com reports the lefty swinger “controls the bat very well” and could settle in between the 10-15 homer mark annually. Abrams was a fixture on top-10 draft boards all spring, with many outlets ranking him anywhere between the second and sixth best prospect in the ’19 draft.
With the selection, the Padres add to their embarrassment of blue-chip riches on the farm. Even with the graduations of Fernando Tatis Jr., Chris Paddack, and perhaps Josh Naylor and Francisco Mejia (should they accrue the necessary number of at-bats) the club still boasts, depending on the source, anywhere between five to eight top-100 prospects, with a glut of high-upside talents of all kinds in the wake.
The Padres Have Yet To Resolve Their Outfield Crunch
It’s been rumored for months that the Padres would eventually have to make some form of outfield move. The team has more outfield options than playing time available, and that’s only become truer as the season has worn on. Currently, the Padres are “discussing what it would look like” to keep rookie slugger Josh Naylor on the roster even after Franchy Cordero returns from the injured list, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune. Doing so could potentially mean optioning the struggling Manuel Margot to Triple-A El Paso, where he could receive everyday at-bats and work on his approach at the plate.
Long considered to be among the game’s top prospects, Margot is hitting just .241/.283/.321 on the season, although Naylor hasn’t demonstrated much in the way of on-base skills in his brief audition so far. The former first-round pick has two homers and two doubles in 37 plate appearances but has yet to draw a walk. He’s also punched out a dozen times (32.4 percent) en route to a .243/.243/.459 overall batting line.
Still, it seems the club is at least pondering whether an alignment consisting of Cordero, Naylor, Wil Myers, Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe is worth trying out. Defensively, there’s no true center field option, but any of the bunch could reasonably be expected to be more productive at the plate than Margot. Selling low on Margot surely isn’t something they’d prefer to do, but if the club is comfortable with Cordero or Myers in center, at least on a short-term basis, perhaps they’d more seriously explore the possibility.
As The Athletic’s Dennis Lin recently suggested (subscription required), San Diego would also be wise to explore the market for Renfroe given that his skill set is somewhat similar to that of Reyes, but he’s four years older. Renfroe was a frequently mentioned trade candidate in the winter and is out to a .250/.304/.619 start with 18 homers in 191 plate appearances. Margot is controlled through 2022 — Renfroe through 2023. Neither seems like a viable centerpiece for a premium trade acquisition, but both would hold some appeal to teams in search of controllable outfield depth.
Lin suggests that the Padres will be active both in looking to add long-term pieces — perhaps by condensing some of that outfield surplus and the team’s considerable prospect capital — while also being open-minded to moving current contributors. General manager A.J. Preller acknowledged that with the draft now in the past, trade talk becomes “a lot of the conversation for us,” which is generally true throughout the league.
Beyond Renfroe and Margot, the Padres would surely be open to shedding some of Wil Myers’ remaining contract, but the enormous financial commitment to him makes any trade difficult to piece together. Myers’ six-year, $83MM contract is extremely backloaded, such that he’ll earn $20MM in each of the 2020-22 seasons (plus a $1MM buyout on a 2023 club option). He’s hitting .232/.330/.442 with 11 homers, seven doubles and seven stolen bases through 218 plate appearances, but he’s also striking out in a career-worst 36.2 percent of his trips to the plate. He’s a capable enough corner outfielder but is overmatched in center, and his strikeout trouble will always hinder his on-base skills. It’s tough to imagine a trade involving Myers without the Padres taking back a similarly onerous contract or eating a substantial portion of salary.
It’s possible, then, that if the Friars do make a move, they’ll be sending away someone with significant team control remaining. Beyond the aforementioned Margot and Renfroe, Cordero is controlled through 2023, Reyes through 2024 and Naylor through 2025. The Padres are known to be on the lookout for starting pitchers they can control beyond the 2019 season, and parting with a pre-arbitration outfielder who has upwards of a half-decade of club control remaining would help them in that regard.
If the Friars are to explore possible trades for names like Marcus Stroman, Trevor Bauer or Matthew Boyd (to name a few), including a controllable outfielder as a piece of the puzzle would allow them to free up immediate playing time while also addressing the pitching staff both now and in the future. It’s worth nothing that each of the Blue Jays, Indians and the Tigers in particular have faced questions about their outfield production this season. Elsewhere in the league, the Phillies lost Andrew McCutchen for the remainder of the season due to an ACL tear just days after Odubel Herrera’s future became cloudy, at best, due to assault allegations. There are ample trade opportunities to explore, and more figure to emerge as the deadline draws nearer, but Naylor’s arrival and Cordero’s looming return make San Diego’s outfield feel more crowded than ever.
Padres Activate Fernando Tatis Jr.
June 6: The Padres announced that Tatis has indeed been activated. France was optioned to Triple-A El Paso in a corresponding move.
June 5: The Padres are planning to activate shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. from the 10-day injured list Thursday, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Tatis’ comeback will be a long-awaited return for the Padres, who have gone just 15-19 since the 20-year-old rookie last played April 28. San Diego jumped out to a 16-12 start with Tatis before he suffered a left hamstring strain. At that point, Tatis may have been the NL Rookie of the Year front-runner. He batted .300/.360/.550 with six home runs and six steals in 111 plate appearances prior to his IL placement, thus delivering on the considerable hype he garnered in his days as a minor leaguer.
Thanks in part to Tatis’ output thus far, the 31-31 Padres are within three games of a wild-card spot in the National League. The Padres haven’t earned a playoff berth since 2006, but if they’re going to return to the postseason this year, a healthy Tatis will likely play a key role. No matter how this season shakes out for the Friars, it’s fair to say Tatis is a sizable upgrade over Greg Garcia and Ty France – who have gotten significant playing time as a result of his injury.
Garcia and France have filled in at third during Tatis’ absence, while Manny Machado has occupied shortstop instead of the hot corner. Fortunately for San Diego, though, it appears Tatis and Machado are about to reunite along the left side of its infield.
Franmil Reyes Is On An Unusual Pace
Just 146 games into his major league career, Padres right fielder Franmil Reyes has established himself as one of baseball’s most intimidating power threats. The 6-foot-5, 273-pound Reyes smashed 16 home runs during his 285-plate appearance debut a year ago and has totaled the league’s fourth-most HRs (19) this season. The 23-year-old’s on pace for 50 homers in his first full season in the majors, but that alone isn’t the hardest-to-believe fact about his campaign to date.
With a .247/.294/.577 slash line through 211 plate appearances this season, the 23-year-old Reyes has chipped in a strong 122 wRC+ for the playoff-contending Padres. The lone massively underwhelming figure in Reyes’ line is his on-base percentage, which ties for 17th worst among 166 qualified MLB batters. It also helps set the stage for what could go down as a historic season for Reyes.
Based on research at FanGraphs going all the way back to 1871, no hitter has ever accumulated at least 40 home runs and reached base under 30 percent of the time in a season. Former Red Sox outfielder Tony Armas came the closest during a 1984 campaign in which he swatted 43 HRs and recorded an even .300 OBP in 679 PA. Thirty-five years later, Reyes may put forth a similarly powerful season with even less on-base ability.
Just over two months into the season, Reyes has recorded the game’s 26th-highest strikeout rate (27 percent). That’s not awful for someone with Reyes’ high-power skill set; on the other hand, his 6.6 walk percentage leaves plenty to be desired – especially for someone who’s not blessed with much speed. The fact that Reyes isn’t, say, Rhys Hoskins when it comes to drawing bases on balls has helped stop him from becoming a far bigger force at the plate. That aside, the right-handed Reyes has offered above-average production against righty and lefty pitchers alike, and he has registered solid numbers in his home park and elsewhere.
Reyes, who unsurprisingly elevates the ball more than most hitters, ranks 16th in the game in exit velocity on fly balls and line drives (97.9 mph), per Statcast, which credits him with an even higher expected weighted on-base average (.390) than actual wOBA (.365). It also awards Reyes a respectable .283 expected batting average which, along with a paltry .244 BABIP, indicates he hasn’t encountered good batted-ball fortune in 2019. If that turns around at all, it’ll push Reyes’ OBP over the .300 barrier by season’s end and prevent him from making somewhat dubious history.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Padres Designate Alex Dickerson For Assignment
The Padres announced that they’ve designated outfielder Alex Dickerson for assignment on Wednesday. His spot on the roster will go to righty Miguel Diaz, whose reinstatement from the 60-day injured list had already been announced by the team.
Dickerson, 29, has collected three singles in 19 trips to the plate this season in his first action since the 2016 season. Back injuries wiped out Dickerson’s 2017 campaign, and he underwent Tommy John surgery last spring, which cost him the 2018 season as well. Prior to those significant injury troubles, Dickerson looked like an intriguing late bloomer; through 285 plate appearances in 2016, he hit .257/.333/.455 with 10 homers, 16 doubles, a pair of triples and five stolen bases.
There’s a known outfield crunch in San Diego, however, with Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, Franchy Cordero, Franmil Reyes, Hunter Renfroe and the recently promoted Josh Naylor all vying for at-bats on the big league roster (although Cordero is injured at the moment). That glut of outfielders ultimately left Dickerson as the odd man out, though his prior success and strong .372/.469/.606 slash through 113 Triple-A plate appearances this season could very well lead to interest from another club. The Padres will have a week to either trade Dickerson or attempt to pass him through outright waivers.
Padres Place Matt Strahm On Injured List
The Padres announced Wednesday that they’ve placed left-hander Matt Strahm on the 10-day injured list due to a rib strain. They’ve also optioned lefty reliever Brad Wieck to Triple-A, recalled right-hander Cal Quantrill and reinstated righty Miguel Diaz from the 60-day injured list. San Diego has not yet announced a corresponding 40-man roster move for Diaz, but its 40-man was previously full, so another move will need to be announced in the near future.
Strahm, 27, has had a solid season with the Padres after moving from the bullpen in 2018 to a full-time rotation gig in 2019. Through 11 starts, he’s totaled 60 1/3 innings of 4.04 ERA ball. Along the way, the former Royals southpaw has averaged 8.4 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9, though his elevated 1.49 HR/9 and a below-average 36 percent ground-ball rate are less encouraging. Strahm is already just one inning shy of his 2018 total, so his workload moving forward will be worth monitoring. While the Friars are surely comfortable with a hefty step up in terms of innings count, it’s also unlikely that Strahm is ticketed for a full slate of 30-plus starts and 180-plus innings, even if today’s IL placement proves short-term.
With Strahm sidelined at least temporarily, the Padres will lean on Joey Lucchesi, Chris Paddack, Eric Lauer, Nick Margevicius and, presumably, Quantrill in the rotation. It’s an inexperienced group but one that has been mostly effective. Margevicius is the lone member of the group who has struggled substantially, but even in his case, most of the damage done against him has been confined to his three most recent outings.
In Diaz, the Padres will welcome back a hard-throwing 24-year-old righty who has been on the shelf all season so far due to a torn meniscus. Diaz hasn’t found big league success yet, but he averages better than 95 mph on his heater and picks up roughly a strikeout per inning. He has minor league options remaining, so if the control issues he’s experienced at the MLB level (5.5 BB/9 in 60 1/3 frames) persist, he can be sent down without risk of being exposed to waivers.
Minor MLB Transactions: Marlins, D-backs, Padres
A couple of the latest minor moves from around baseball, courtesy of Roster Roundup:
- The Marlins have acquired catcher Tyler Heineman from the Diamondbacks. The D-backs presumably received cash in the deal for Heineman, who took 90 plate appearances with their Triple-A club in Reno and hit .325/.407/.525 (134 wRC+). Now 27, the amateur magician was a decent Astros prospect in his younger days. Heineman entered the pros as Houston’s eighth-round pick in 2012.
- The Padres have released outfielder Jacob Scavuzzo, who posted quality power numbers with their Triple-A team in El Paso this year. While the 25-year-old slashed .259/.300/.696 (127 wRC+) with 15 home runs and a .438 ISO in the offense-driven Pacific Coast League, he went down on strikes 40 times against just five walks. Scavuzzo was with the Dodgers through last season after joining them as a 21st-rounder in 2012. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen pointed out Scavuzzo’s lack of plate discipline a little over a year ago while assessing the Dodgers’ prospects, but he did credit the right-handed hitter’s “big pop.”
Health Notes: Eovaldi, Peralta, Jay, Franchy, Bradford
Red Sox right-hander Nathan Eovaldi could return from the injured list as early as June 15, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe suggests. As Abraham notes, that would mark 52 days since Eovaldi underwent right elbow surgery April 22, at which point he was reportedly supposed to miss four to six weeks. Eovaldi’s absence has deprived Boston of a second-half hero from 2018, someone whose late-season excellence convinced the reigning world champions to bring him back on a four-year, $68MM contract in free agency. The hard-throwing Eovaldi, 29, then came out of the gates slowly prior to his surgery, logging a 6.00 ERA/7.05 FIP with 6.86 K/9 and 4.71 BB/9 over 21 frames and four starts. Still, considering the Red Sox are fighting for a playoff spot and haven’t gotten enough from their rotation in general, Eovaldi’s return should be a welcome one for the club.
- The Diamondbacks activated outfielder David Peralta from the 10-day IL on Monday and optioned right-hander Stefan Crichton to Triple-A Reno, the team announced. Peralta had been out since May 22 with right AC joint inflammation. He got off to a terrific start before then, following up last year’s 30-home run effort with a .309/.357/.524 line (126 wRC+) and seven HRs in 207 trips to the plate.
- White Sox outfielder Jon Jay began a rehab assignment with Double-A Birmingham on Monday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com tweets. Perhaps in an attempt to lure his friend Manny Machado to the South Side of Chicago, the White Sox signed Jay to a $4MM guarantee in the offseason. Machado wound up in San Diego, however, and the 34-year-old Jay still hasn’t played under his new deal because of a hip issue. Long a competent if unspectacular offensive player, Jay has batted .285/.352/.378 (103 wRC+) in 4,061 attempts at the major league level.
- Outfielder Franchy Cordero could rejoin the Padres as early as Wednesday, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. The 24-year-old has been shelved since April 9 because of a right elbow sprain. Cordero underwent surgery on the same joint in early July of last year, ending his season.
- The Mariners placed Chasen Bradford on the 10-day IL and recalled fellow righty reliever Matt Festa from Triple-A Tacoma, per a team announcement. Bradford’s dealing with a right forearm strain, which is an ominous-sounding injury for a pitcher. This also marks Bradford’s second IL stint of the season, as he previously missed time with inflammation in his pitching shoulder. The 29-year-old still ranks fifth among 2019 Mariners relievers in innings (16 2/3), and has only walked 2.16 hitters per nine while generating ground balls at a 51.9 percent clip. However, a lack of strikeouts (5.94 K/9) and a bloated home run rate (3.24 HR/9) have contributed to an uninspiring 4.86 ERA/7.23 FIP for Bradford.
Fernando Tatis Jr. To Begin Rehab Assignment On Monday
TODAY: Tatis will begin his rehab assignment at the Padres’ Double-A affiliate on Monday, Andy Green told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell and other reporters.
SATURDAY: Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. has been out since late April with a left hamstring strain, but it appears he’s nearing a return to game action. The rookie sensation could start a rehab assignment at “the beginning of next week,” according to manager Andy Green (via Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Barring setbacks, Tatis would then have 20 days to return to the majors.
At the time of his injury on April 28, Tatis was perhaps the early front-runner for National League Rookie of the Year honors. The 20-year-old slashed .300/.360/.550 (139 wRC+) with six home runs and six steals over his first 111 plate appearances in the bigs.
Tatis’ production helped San Diego to a 16-12 start, but the club has gone just 14-15 without him. Nevertheless, the surprising Padres (30-27) are within a mere half-game of a wild-card spot, and they’ll likely need a healthy Tatis back for a chance to snap their 12-year playoff drought.
The Padres’ shortstop position has been in the capable hands of Manny Machado during Tatis’ absence, which has left third base to Greg Garcia and Ty France. While the lefty-swinging Garcia has batted a solid .264/.364/.407 (110 wRC+) in 107 trips to the plate, the righty-hitting France has only mustered a .230/.292/.368 slash (77 wRC+) in 96 PA.
NL West Notes: Posey, Blackmon, Davis, Padres
Buster Posey left Saturday’s game after suffering a hamstring injury while running out a ground ball. The Giants called up catcher Aramis Garcia for today’s game while Posey didn’t play, though manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including MLB.com’s Maria Guardado) that Posey’s sore hamstring isn’t thought to be too serious. “It’s hard to go into a game with one catcher. Could Buster go back there? Probably, but I think we’d put him at risk to make it worse…This makes sense right now for a day to see how Buster’s doing,” Bochy said. “It gives us some time. After the day off in New York, we’ll see if he’s available to go.” Posey is hitting just .253/.311/.387 through 168 plate appearances, and is on pace for the weakest hitting season of his ten full seasons in the big leagues. The longtime Giants star has been swinging the bat a bit better since returning from a brief stint on the concussion IL earlier this month, so Posey and the team are obviously hoping his hamstring problem won’t again put him on the sidelines.
Here’s some more from around the NL West…
- Charlie Blackmon is eligible to come off the IL on Tuesday, though Rockies manager Bud Black told reporters (including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post) that Blackmon will remain out of action longer than the 10-day minimum. Blackmon took batting practice and shagged some fly balls on Sunday, though he might still need a rehab stint in the minors. Blackmon was hitting .300/.356/.565 at the time of his injury, though the Rockies have surprisingly not missed his bat — Colorado has a 9-1 record in Blackmon’s absence. “Now that they’ve got me out of there, we’re taking off,” the outfielder joked.
- In other Rockies injury news, Black said closer Wade Davis could also pitch in a minor league rehab game or a simulated game before returning to the active roster. Davis threw a bullpen session today, so the right-hander looks to on pace for a relatively quick recovery from a left oblique strain that IL’ed him on May 22.
- Padres general manager A.J. Preller spoke to reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) today about how the front office will turn its focus to the deadline once the draft is passed. With the Padres still in the wild card mix, this could mark the first time in Preller’s tenure that the club will be buyers rather than sellers in July, though Preller stressed that the team isn’t planning an all-in push. “This year we can look at going a lot of different routes….But the most important thing we’ve talked about is it’s still going to be looking toward the long term and looking toward building for the next five years and nothing that will sacrifice that over the next five weeks or so,” the GM said. San Diego has been linked to a wide array of starting pitchers over the last several months, though “there appears to be increasing pessimism the Padres will sign free agent Dallas Keuchel,” Acee writes, since the Padres have young starters for their rotation and the club would have to outbid several other teams for Keuchel’s services.