- The Padres have so many prospects in camp after their international spending splurge that some players (including highly-touted Cuban lefty Adrian Morejon) have been used in simulated games since they don’t have enough roster space for proper minor league games, ESPN’s Keith Law writes in his latest subscription-only piece. Law provides an in-person analysis of several Padres and Dodgers prospects, with particularly good reviews given to Morejon, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Dodgers righty Walker Buehler.
Padres Rumors
Diamondbacks Willing To Listen To Offers For Nick Ahmed
10:00am: Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets that the Padres have had past interest in Ahmed and points out that San Diego manager Andy Green knows Ahmed well from his time as the Diamondbacks’ third base coach.
9:44am: The Diamondbacks’ offseason infield additions (Ketel Marte and Daniel Descalso) and the spring emergence of Ildemaro Vargas (who is currently on the 40-man roster) have created a willingness to listen to offers on defensive standout Nick Ahmed, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. According to Piecoro, Chris Owings has the inside track on the Opening Day shortstop gig right now, further prompting the team to explore options with its infield depth.
[Related: Arizona Diamondbacks Depth Chart]
The 27-year-old Ahmed does have a pair of minor league options remaining, so there’s no urgency for Arizona to move him prior to the end of Spring Training. Ahmed underwent season-ending hip surgery last August but has looked healthy this spring, per Piecoro. Thus far, Ahmed has appeared in 13 games and is tied for the most at-bats of any player in Diamondbacks camp. He’s hitting just .250/.263/.389 in that small sample, though spring stats are always best taken with a grain of salt, and Ahmed’s value is derived from his glove as opposed to his bat, anyhow.
In parts of three big league campaigns, Ahmed is just a .221/.268/.329 hitter over the life of 842 plate appearances. While that level of offensive output is hardly appetizing, Ahmed also grades out as one of the game’s truly elite defenders, however. Ahmed has logged 1920 innings at shortstop in his Major League career and has posted outstanding totals of +34 Defensive Runs Saved and +20 in Ultimate Zone Rating. That premium glovework could make him appealing as a bench option, at the very least, to other NL clubs that lack the Diamondbacks’ considerable depth at shortstop.
If the D-backs are to find a taker in a trade for Ahmed, a bench role on another club seems the likeliest outcome for him, from my vantage point. That, however, has more to do with the fact that there simply aren’t many teams looking for starting shortstops than it does with Ahmed’s overall ability. The Padres are known to be looking for shortstop help and have reportedly inquired on both Jose Iglesias and Zack Cozart this winter, making them one speculative club that could look to Ahmed as a candidate for more regular playing time. Of course, there’s also the matter of dealing with a division rival, which can often complicate matters. San Diego currently has Luis Sardinas and non-roster invitee Erick Aybar as its top two shortstop options in camp, so there’s certainly room for Ahmed to join the fray and compete for playing time.
Ahmed has not yet reached arbitration eligibility in his still-young career, so he’d be eminently affordable for the upcoming 2017 campaign. He’ll be a virtual lock for arbitration next offseason so long as he spends at least 86 days in the Majors in 2017, though his limited offensive contributions should keep his price tag down even if he does reach arb. Ahmed can be controlled through at least the 2020 season, so he could be a cost-effective depth option for any club looking to bolster its infield defense in both the short and long term. Given his defensive prowess at short, it stands to reason that Ahmed would be well-equipped to handle both second base and third base as well.
Dickerson Injury Opens Door For Blash; Spangenberg Could See Outfield Time
- The injury to Padres outfielder Alex Dickerson opens a door for slugger Jabari Blash to get another crack in the Majors, manager Andy Green told reporters on Thursday (including Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune). “Obviously it opens an opportunity for Jabari,” said Green. “We might start entertaining the idea of hitting fly balls to (second/third baseman) Cory Spangenberg to check his versatility level at this point in time, try to give ourselves as many options as possible going into the start of the season.” The 27-year-old Blash was a Rule 5 pick out of the Mariners’ system last year, but the Padres struck a trade to retain his rights and optioned him to the minors before outrighting him off the 40-man roster this past January. Blash struggled in the Majors last year but hit .260/.415/.514 in 229 Triple-A plate appearances.
Heyman’s Latest: Quintana, Pagan, Cozart, Padres, Bautista, Giants
In his latest notes column, FanRag’s Jon Heyman reports that while teams such as the Astros, Pirates, Rangers and Yankees were all linked to Jose Quintana in trade rumors this offseason, the best offer the White Sox received came from an unnamed club that is currently perceived as more of a rebuilding team. That could mean any number of teams — the Braves, Phillies, Twins, Reds, Brewers and Padres are all in the midst of retooling their organizations — and further context is seemingly unknown at this time. A trade of Quintana, at this point, seems far likelier to occur this summer than during the final days of Spring Training, though Heyman’s note is a reminder that Quintana would appeal to virtually any club in baseball. With four years and $36.85MM remaining on his contract, Quintana’s affordable level of excellence can help clubs looking to win now or those looking to contend more in 2018-19.
A few more highlights…
- The Braves have made “multiple” attempts to sign free-agent outfielder Angel Pagan, but the veteran has been holding out for a big league deal worth around $5MM. Heyman notes that Pagan has received some guaranteed offers, but they’ve come with very low base salaries. Atlanta has also been tied to another reunion with infielder Kelly Johnson, but Heyman notes that Johnson, too, is seeking a Major League contract.
- Zack Cozart is still available in trade talks, but the Reds haven’t gotten much in the way of appealing offers due to the fact that few clubs are looking for a shortstop right now. The Padres have talked to Cincinnati about Cozart, but Heyman notes that they’re not keen on giving up top-tier talent for a player with only one year of club control remaining before free agency. Heyman notes that San Diego is still on the lookout for a shortstop upgrade.
- The Rangers would want a Major League ready starting pitcher in any trade involving Jurickson Profar, Heyman notes. The Padres like Profar but wouldn’t be willing to surrender right-hander Luis Perdomo in order to obtain him, he adds. That may raise an eyebrow for some fans, but I’d point out that Perdomo has five years of control remaining (to Profar’s three) and posted a 4.47 ERA with 6.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 61.4 percent ground-ball rate across his final 110 2/3 innings in 2016 after a dismal start in the bullpen. In that time, he posted a 3.84 xFIP and 3.88 SIERA. Profar hit .239/.321/.338 in 307 plate appearances last season.
- Right-hander Jered Weaver tells Heyman that he considered retirement this offseason following a career-worst year in 2016. However, Weaver began to feel stronger after a month of rest, ultimately landing with the Padres on a one-year, $3MM deal. Weaver says that he’s “10 steps above last year” in terms of how he feels physically at this point.
- The Indians made an offer to Jose Bautista that was for roughly the same $18.5MM guarantee he received with the Blue Jays, Heyman reports, and they weren’t entirely closed off to a multi-year deal. However, Bautista’s preference was to head back to Toronto.
- The Pirates sought right-hander Derek Law (among other pieces) in trade talks centering around Mark Melancon with the Giants at last year’s trade deadline, per Heyman. It seems that the Pirates were focused on adding an MLB-ready replacement arm for the bullpen in Melancon talks, which they received in the form of left-hander Felipe Rivero. San Francisco, of course, signed Melancon to a four-year deal this winter.
Padres Sign Cuban Lefty Osvaldo Hernandez
THURSDAY: San Diego has announced the deal.
MONDAY: The Padres are in agreement on a deal with Cuban left-hander Osvaldo Hernandez, reports Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald (via Twitter). The 18-year-old southpaw, who was declared a free agent last month, will receive a $2.5MM signing bonus. Because the Padres have shattered their league-issues international spending allotment already, Hernandez will come with a 100 percent luxury tax, meaning he’ll effectively cost the Friars a total of $5MM.
Hernandez hasn’t been included on lists of top international prospects from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB.com, etc., making information on him somewhat scarce. BA’s Ben Badler wrote up a couple of paragraphs of scouting info on Hernandez following today’s deal, writing that Hernandez has an 89-94 mph fastball to go along with a tight-spinning curve that could eventually be a plus offering and a slider that could eventually be above-average as well. MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reported when Hernandez was declared a free agent that in addition to the Padres, the Reds, Astros, Mets, Braves, Rangers and Red Sox had varying levels of interest in the young southpaw.
The Padres have been baseball’s most active team on the international front during the current signing period, and Monday’s agreement serves as a reminder that the team could continue to add further international talent in the three months between now and the current signing period’s June 15 closing date. Among the Padres’ top international commitments this winter have been Cuban left-hander Adrian Morejon ($11MM), Cuban outfielder Jorge Ona ($7MM), Dominican shortstop Luis Almanzar ($4MM) and Cuban right-hander Michel Baez ($3MM). San Diego opened the international signing period on July 2 with fireworks, agreeing to terms with 10 highly touted prospects that day alone (headlined by Almanzar). Since that time general manager A.J. Preller and his staff have continued to aggressively supplement the team’s minor league system on the international market.
The Padres entered the current signing period with a bonus pool of $3.347MM, but they’ve exceeded that mark by well north of $30MM at this point and, subsequently, been taxed at a 100 percent rate for every dollar over that allotment. By my count, from the bonuses we’ve tracked at MLBTR, the Padres have exceeded their pool by at least $34.833MM, though the size some of their smaller-scale signings (which could be worth a few hundred thousand dollars) went unreported. Those numbers, though incomplete, put the Friars at just over $73MM worth of total expenditures on the international front, though the true number could very well exceed $75MM and approach $80MM in total.
Alex Dickerson Diagnosed With Disc Protrusion
Padres outfielder Alex Dickerson has been diagnosed with a “disc protrusion” in his back, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports (Twitter links). Fortunately, surgery won’t be required at this time, though a timeline for a return is uncertain. According to Lin, Dickerson will sit for about three or four weeks before being evaluated again by the team’s medical staff.
The news makes it all but certain that Dickerson won’t command an Opening Day roster spot for the Friars, who have numerous competitors vying for outfield roles in camp. The 26-year-old, who hits from the left side, had made a strong case for a MLB job with his .257/.333/.455 showing in 285 plate appearances in 2016. But with just one game of spring action under his belt to this point, it seems reasonable to anticipate that the organization will give Dickerson time to work back to full health before considering him for the major league roster once more.
Even with Dickerson sidelined to start the year, the Padres will still face some interesting questions in determining the outfield mix. Up the middle, the team will likely decide whether to open the year with prospect Manuel Margot in the majors; otherwise, Travis Jankowski would figure to take that job. Cory Spangenberg, who also plays the infield, is another 40-man player with a lefty bat who could factor in the corner mix, Lin notes on Twitter, while minor-league free agents Rafael Ortega and Nick Buss are also in camp. Another southpaw-swinging non-roster option, Brett Wallace, seems to face an uphill battle to claim a role as a bench bat.
On the right-handed side of the equation, Hunter Renfroe could well be slated for a full showcase in the majors. But with Dickerson’s absence, there may now also be room for hot-hitting slugger Jabari Blash. He has swatted five home runs and drawn six walks while slashing .308/.441/.885 thus far, continuing a strong Triple-A showing in 2016. Jack-of-all-trades Christian Bethancourt functions as a wild card, with MiLB free agent signee Collin Cowgill also perhaps a factor, though he has struggled in his limited game action thus far. Lin notes that infielder Allen Cordoba, a Rule 5 pick, might also see some time on the grass.
Regardless of who cracks the roster to start the season, the Padres figure to retain plenty of flexibility as it unfolds. All of the 40-man members listed above (excluding Bethancourt) have options remaining. In Dickerson’s case, though, he’s entering his final option year, so he’ll need to work his way back to the majors and earn an opportunity to establish his place in San Diego’s future plans.
Which Teams Have The Most "Dead Money" On Their Books?
- The Dodgers have the more “dead money” on their payroll than any other team in baseball, Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards observes. Los Angeles has $47.4MM committed to players who are not on their 40-man roster (whether they’ve been traded, released or are still in the organization but just not on the 40-man) this season. The Padres ($35.1MM), Yankees ($26.5MM), Angels ($22.4MM) and Red Sox ($22.3MM) round out the top five, though San Diego is by far the leader in terms of dead money as a percentage of overall payroll. A whopping 54.8% of the Padres’ 2017 payroll is going towards players who are no longer on the team’s 40-man roster — Melvin Upton Jr., James Shields, Hector Olivera and Jedd Gyorko.
Padres Notes: Gagne, Infield
- Even though he’s 41 years old and hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2008, free agent reliever Eric Gagne is drawing interest from “multiple teams,” including the Padres, according to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (Twitter links). The 2003 NL Cy Young winner and former Dodgers closer is in the midst of an eye-opening showing with Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic. Gagne threw 2 1/3 scoreless innings and ran his fastball up to 93.8 mph, per Statcast (via David Adler of MLB.com), in Canada’s loss to Colombia on Saturday.
- As the season approaches, the only certainty in the Padres’ infield is that Wil Myers will start at first base, observes of MLB.com. Yangervis Solarte “is going to be out there on a very consistent basis,” said manager Andy Green, but it’s unclear if he’ll remain at third (where he spent nearly all of last season) or spend more time at second base. Meanwhile, unexpected 2016 success story Ryan Schimpf and Cory Spangenberg are competing to start at second or third, and Luis Sardinas and Erick Aybar are in a close battle for the No. 1 shortstop job.
Padres Notes: Cesar Vargas, Jered Weaver
- There’s little doubt that the Padres are open to multiple possibilities in their rotation. As MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell writes, though, the club has begun to pare down the number of competitors. Righty Cesar Vargas was the first to go; he was sent down to minor-league camp in part to give him enough time on the hill to build back to full strength after dealing with a flexor strain in 2016. Vargas, 25, had turned in six eye-opening starts before the day of his injury, and could certainly still enter the picture at some point during the season to come.
- One Padres starting job will go to righty Jered Weaver, who Cassavell spoke with about his progress thus far. The 34-year-old says that focusing on flexibility has allowed him to make huge strides in his mechanics, calling it “night-and-day from last year.” He’s hoping the change will make him looser and allow better extension, while also preventing the neck and shoulder issues that plagued him previously.
NL West Notes: Solarte, Casilla, Seager, Nakaushiro
Yangervis Solarte enjoyed a very good season for the Padres in 2016 despite dealing with unimaginable tragedy off the field. Yuliette Solarte, Yangervis’ wife, was diagnosed with liver cancer in late 2015 and passed away last September at age 31. As the infielder tells Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Solarte was prepared to skip last year’s Spring Training to spend time with his wife and their three daughters, but Yuliette urged him to focus on baseball in order to continue providing for their family’s future. Yuliette saw her husband secure his first life-changing payday last spring in the form of a $3.15MM brand contract with Fantex, and Solarte gained even more financial security by signing a two-year extension with the Padres this past January. Sanders’ touching piece is well worth a full read, chronicling the couple’s life together, Solarte’s journey to the big leagues and Yuliette’s battle after her heartbreaking diagnosis.
Here’s more from around the NL West…
- Santiago Casilla is happy to be back in the Athletics organization after not being offered a contract by the Giants this last winter, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. A reunion between Casilla and the Giants never seemed likely given how Casilla became a virtual afterthought for the team after he was removed from the closer’s job in September, and the two sides didn’t do much in the way of offseason negotiating.
- Corey Seager has missed the Dodgers’ last two games and will miss Monday’s game as well due to a minor back injury suffered while turning a double play on Friday. Both Seager and manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times) that the injury isn’t considered serious, and the team isn’t even sending Seager in for tests. Seager has seen little action on the field during Spring Training as he was previously sidelined with a shin injury, though it sounds like the Dodgers are simply playing it safe with their young star.
- Lefty Yuhei Nakaushiro was one of the first cuts from the Diamondbacks’ spring camp but manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including MLB.com’s Chris Gabel) that the Japanese southpaw isn’t far off from his big league debut. “Instead of putting pressure on himself [in big league camp] and every third day getting a look, we felt like he could go down to player development. The last thing we said to him is that he’s very close,” Lovullo said. “We will see him at some point during the year. We know that. We feel very comfortable with that.” The 27-year-old signed a minor league deal with Arizona last winter and posted very strong numbers in his first taste of North American baseball; Nakaushiro rose from rookie ball to Triple-A, posting a combined 1.23 ERA, 12.3 K/9 and 3.08 K/BB rate over 29 1/3 combined innings.
