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2016 Vesting Options Midseason Update

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Several notable players could see their 2016 statuses change depending on whether or not they unlock vesting options in their current contracts.  As we enter the All-Star break, let’s check in on the progress each of these players are making towards those getting those options to vest.  All stats are current heading into today’s action…

  • Chase Utley: The veteran second baseman has a $15MM vesting option for 2016 that becomes guaranteed if he makes 500 plate appearances.  (If he doesn’t, it becomes a team option worth between $5MM-$11MM depending on how much time Utley spends on the DL, with a $2MM buyout.)  Utley, of course, is on the DL right now recovering from an ankle injury and will be out until late July or early August.  Phillies GM Ruben Amaro has openly stated that Cesar Hernandez has earned the everyday second base job, leaving Utley’s playing time in question for the remainder of the season.  Utley is suffering through by far the worst season of his 13-year career with only a .179/.257/.275 slash line and four homers through his 249 plate appearances.  If Utley isn’t back until early August, he’d be hard-pressed to reach 500 PA even in the increasingly unlikely event that he plays every day.
  • Jonathan Papelbon: This Phillie’s march towards his vesting option is going much more smoothly.  His $13MM option for 2016 vests if he either finishes 55 games this year, or finishes 100 games combined between the 2014 and 2015 seasons.  Papelbon finished 52 games last year and has 29 finishes this season, so collecting those last 19 finishes over roughly two and a half months shouldn’t be difficult for the closer if he stays healthy.  There’s a chance Papelbon could ask for his option to be guaranteed to facilitate a trade, yet he sounds so eager to get out of Philadelphia and pitch for a contender that he may not bother and instead bet on himself to finish those 19 games.
  • David Ortiz: Big Papi has 340 plate appearances, making him a virtual lock to reach the 425 PA he’ll need (plus passing an offseason physical) for his 2016 option to vest.  Ortiz will earn at least $11MM in 2016, plus more depending on how many PA past the 425-mark he ends up recording this season.
  • Joaquin Benoit: With only seven games finished, Benoit has no shot at the 55 games finished he’s need to turn the Padres’ $8MM club option into a guarantee for 2016.
  • Marlon Byrd: If Byrd has 600 PA this season, or at least 550 PA this season and 1100 PA total between 2014-15, the $8MM club option on his 2016 services will become guaranteed.  A DL stint limited Byrd to 262 PA thus far, so it’ll be difficult for Byrd to reach the 550 PA mark unless he stays healthy and the Reds play him virtually every day.
  • Santiago Casilla: The Giants righty signed a three-year, $15MM deal in the 2012-13 offseason that contained a vesting option. MLBTR has learned that Casilla’s 2016 option will vest at $6.5MM with 55 games finished during the 2015 season. Casilla’s option could have vested at $7.5MM with 100 games finished between the 2014-15 seasons, including 55 in 2015. The option could also have vested at $8.5MM with 150 games finished from 2013-15, including 55 finished in 2015.
  • Nori Aoki: The outfielder was one of the league leaders in plate appearances when he fractured his right fibula, so he already has 291 of the 550 PA he needs to turn the Giants’ $5.5MM option for 2016 into a mutual option.  If Aoki returns around July 24 (as Bruce Bochy estimates) and resumes his everyday spot atop San Francisco’s lineup, he stands a good chance of reaching the vesting point.
  • Jonny Gomes: If Gomes receives 325 PA, his $3MM option for 2016 will become guaranteed.  He’s just over halfway there with 166 plate appearances, so this one may come right down to the wire.

We already know that Cliff Lee won’t achieve the innings totals required for his 2016 option to vest, as the Phillies southpaw hasn’t pitched all season and is attempting to recover from a torn left flexor tendon without undergoing surgery.  Brandon League also hasn’t pitched this season and has been released by the Dodgers, so he won’t reach the games-finished total required to allow his 2016 player option to vest.

Padres Asking Other Teams About James Shields

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The Padres have asked teams about any possible interest in James Shields, Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com reports (Twitter link).  The extent of these discussions isn’t known, as the Padres could’ve been simply doing due diligence on trade scenarios rather than seriously gauging the right-hander’s market, though the fact that Shields’ name has been floated at all is a notable step.

Following today’s win over the Rangers, San Diego enters the All-Star break with a 41-49 record that puts them 10 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and 7.5 games back of the Cubs for the second NL wild card spot.  It’s a disappointing spot for a Padres team that made several major additions last offseason, and yet GM A.J. Preller hinted that his club’s trade deadline goal was to reload for 2016 rather than rebuild.

Still, Preller also noted that Padres were open to all options and “the biggest thing we preach to our scouts is to just be prepared for all different scenarios.”  Dealing Shields would naturally present a far different “scenario” than dealing, say, a player on an expiring contract.  As others have noted, trading Shields just months after the veteran and San Diego-area native signed a large multi-year contract would hurt the Padres in the eyes of both the fans and future free agents who might think twice about signing with the club.

Shields has a 4.01 ERA, 3.28 K/BB rate and a career-best 10.1 K/9 over 116 2/3 innings this season.  Advanced metrics (3.30 xFIP, 3.25 SIERA) indicate that Shields’ 4.01 ERA is a bit high, as Shields has been hurt by a 17.9% home run rate — this number is not only well above Shields’ career average, it stands out even more as an outlier given that his home games are at one of baseball’s most notoriously pitcher-friendly ballparks.

Shields is guaranteed roughly $4.1MM for the remainder of this season, then $63MM over the 2016-18 seasons and a $16MM club option (with a $2MM buyout) for 2019.  That’s a lot of salary for a 33-year-old hurler, yet since Shields can opt out after the 2016 season, a trading team might prefer such a potentially medium-sized commitment rather than deal for a pitcher on a guaranteed long deal (i.e. Cole Hamels) or one who can enter free agency this winter.

AL Notes: Tigers, Royals, Blue Jays

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A.J. Preller is nearing his first trade deadline as a GM in San Diego and he’ll be applying some of what he learned as a member of the Rangers’ front office.

“I think it’s a very valuable experience,” Preller said, according to Cody Stavenhagen of MLB.com. “I was able to work with good people, and I think we were able to learn from some early mistakes. I think being a part of managing some departments and being in the Draft and the international world and the player world on a grassroots level, I think it definitely helps you prepare for an opportunity in baseball, for this job.”

Preller’s current club is 10.0 games back of first place in the NL West, but his former club, the Rangers, is a little closer to the top of the division at 42-45.  Here’s a look at the American League..

  • Tigers president and GM Dave Dombrowski spoke with reporters Sunday morning and said, “We’re trying to win right now,” Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press tweets.  Over the weekend the Tigers inked Neftali Feliz in an attempt to help turn around their bullpen which ranks amongst the worst in the majors in ERA.  Meanwhile, Dombrowski’s future is uncertain as he is without an extension with just months to go on his contract.
  • The Royals and Pirates are among the teams looking for outfield help, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.  Alex Gordon has a grade two-plus groin strain and is expected to miss eight weeks of action, so it makes sense that KC would be on the lookout for outfield help.  Earlier today we learned that the Pirates are looking at Phillies outfielders Ben Revere and Jeff Francoeur.
  • The Blue Jays’ need for pitching is very obvious, but Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (on Twitter) wonders if their sub-.500 record will lead them to deal for controllable arms rather than rentals.

NL West Notes: Tulowitzki, Shields, Padres, Dodgers

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Don’t expect to see Troy Tulowitzki traded anytime soon, Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post writes.  While the Rockies’ star shortstop has been bandied around in trade rumors for some time, GM Jeff Bridich doesn’t necessarily see anything happening in the next few weeks.  He also says that the Tulo trade talk of last winter was overblown.

“There was never anything in the wintertime that got to be of serious interest,” Bridich said. “Some teams were poking around. The (hip) injury was complicated. There was never anything that remotely came close to happening.”

Bridich continues to say he is open to all possibilities, but Saunders personally would be surprised if Tulowitzki is traded this summer.  Here’s more out of the NL West..

  • If the Padres trade James Shields, just signed to a monster deal last winter, they could risk turning off future free agents, Dennis Lin of U-T San Diego writes.  Still, the temptation is probably there for San Diego as Shields’ contract is backloaded – he’ll go from $10MM this season to $21MM in each of the next three with an opt-out clause after the 2016 World Series.
  • There has been some speculation that the Padres could rebuild given their disappointing year, but Padres lead investor Peter Seidler says that won’t be happening. “First, we want to provide an exceptional All-Star experience for everybody. Obviously, as part of that, we hope we have multiple players participating in the All-Star Game, because that will reflect on a strong team,” Seidler told Lin. “But our expectations are going to be high going into the next year as well as 2017 and every year beyond.”
  • Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (on Twitter) wonders if the Dodgers need to make a move for a starting pitcher.  In all starts made by Dodgers pitchers besides Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Brett Anderson, and Brandon McCarthy, the club has a combined 4.53 ERA.
  • In addition to their world-record payroll, the Dodgers are spending in other creative ways to gain an extra advantage, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times writes.

Rosenthal On Padres, Rockies, Rollins, Rangers

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Here’s the latest from Ken Rosenthal, via a video at FOX Sports:

  • The Cubs and Astros would make sense as teams who could pursue the Padres’ starting pitching, Rosenthal suggests. The Padres would likely have interest in the Cubs’ collection of young middle infielders, and Astros manager A.J. Hinch used to work for the Padres.
  • The Rockies are open to trading Troy Tulowitzki but haven’t been aggressive in trying to do so, Rosenthal says. Nonetheless, the Rockies could have a huge impact as sellers if they chose, given that they have Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, John Axford and LaTroy Hawkins.
  • The Dodgers plan to give Jimmy Rollins “a long leash.” Rollins hasn’t hit well this year, but he’s been better this month (.286/.333/.464). Top prospect Corey Seager isn’t exceptional defensively, and if they went with him as a full-time starter, they’d likely feel they had to deal or release Rollins out of respect. That would leave them in a tough spot if Seager didn’t play well.
  • The Rangers could both sell and buy at the deadline, perhaps dealing Yovani Gallardo but acquiring fellow veteran starting pitcher Cole Hamels, who could then join Texas’ rotation for the next several years. They could also pursue less of a headline-grabbing route by simply pursuing relievers, as well as a hitter they could use against left-handed pitching.

Padres Notes: Shields, Kimbrel, Grandal

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Despite a disappointing 39-49 season thus far, the Padres aren’t planning a complete rebuild, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. “We think we’re smarter to put all of our energy into competing year after year after year,” says Padres lead investor Peter Seidler. “We think that’s what the fans want, we think that’s what San Diego wants, and we know that’s what we want.” The Padres’ plans also won’t be dictated by the fact that they host next year’s All-Star Game either, however. “I think ultimately, we’re going to make decisions that are for the best of the franchise and not say, ’Hey, we have to be at this point because we have the All-Star Game in San Diego next year,'” says GM A.J. Preller. The Padres have a few key players set for free agency after the season, including Justin Upton, Ian Kennedy and Will Venable. Many of their other key players, though, including James Shields, Craig Kimbrel, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Derek Norris, Yonder Alonso, Wil Myers and Matt Kemp, are under control beyond this season, so they could conceivably make another run at contention next year. That could be tricky, however, given the talent they parted with to acquire many of those players. Here’s more out of San Diego.

  • Some in the Padres organization believe the team should trade Shields this summer, promoting him as a lower-cost option than Cole Hamels, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes (subscription only). There’s also belief within the organization that they should consider trading Kimbrel as well. Olney suggests Shields (who will make $21MM in each of the next three seasons, plus a $2MM buyout or a $16MM option in 2019) could make sense for the Cubs, Blue Jays or Dodgers. If the Padres were to trade players like Shields and Kimbrel, though, the question would be how they would explain such an abrupt change of course to their fan base.
  • Catcher Yasmani Grandal feels the Padres didn’t handle him well, Matt Calkins of the Union-Tribune writes. The team had Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross and Ian Kennedy all pitch to Rene Rivera, leaving Grandal without enough playing time to find a rhythm at the plate. Grandal thought Padres pitchers should be throwing inside early in counts, and the pitchers disagreed. Also, his 2013 PED suspension might have led to further distrust in the Padres clubhouse. This season, Grandal has hit .276/.398/.519 and framed pitches well after heading to the Dodgers in the Kemp deal, while Padres pitchers have struggled.

Heyman On Grilli, D-backs, Marlins, Dodgers

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Here are the highlights from Jon Heyman’s massive new Inside Baseball article for CBS Sports. Be sure to check out Heyman on the latest edition of the MLBTR Podcast.

  • The Braves have had “serious talks” about dealing closer Jason Grilli to a contender, Heyman writes, with the Blue Jays and Dodgers among the teams that make the most sense.
  • The Diamondbacks have made infielder Aaron Hill and pitchers Jeremy Hellickson and Addison Reed available in trades, and all three players have attracted at least some interest.
  • The Marlins could trade starter Dan Haren for the right return. On paper, the Dodgers would seem to make sense, but that seems unlikely, since the Dodgers treated Haren basically as a throw-in in the Dee Gordon trade in the offseason. The Dodgers would also prefer to find a starter they could use in the playoffs, and Haren likely doesn’t qualify.
  • Dodgers shortstop Jimmy Rollins could become available in a trade as top prospect Corey Seager continues to demonstrate he’s ready for the big leagues.
  • The Dodgers, Blue Jays, Nationals and perhaps other teams had scouts on hand as Mariners starter Hisashi Iwakuma returned from a lat injury this week. Iwakuma could be a trade candidate, but Heyman notes that giving up four homers to the Tigers probably didn’t exactly increase his value.
  • Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez still seems set on retiring after the season, despite agent Paul Kinzer’s efforts to get him to continue.
  • The Padres have been scouting the Mets lately, leading to speculation that the Mets could be trying to trade for Justin Upton.
  • The Phillies are “not bending” in their demands for Cole Hamels, and his limited no-trade clause remains an obstacle.
  • The Giants have had talks with free agent infielder Everth Cabrera. The Orioles released Cabrera last month. He would provide depth for San Francisco.

International Notes: July 2 Pools, 2016-17 Market, Cuba

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In case you missed the recent action, be sure to catch up on the major July 2 signings. In the midst of teams agreeing to deals with young talent, they were also swapping quite a bit of bonus spending pools amongst themselves. Matt Eddy of Baseball America provides an exceedingly useful chart showing the aggregate results (as of this morning) of all those exchanges.

  • Now that the dust has largely settled, Baseball America’s Ben Badler breaks down at the clubs that have exceeded their total allotment. By Badler’s reckoning, fully one-third of the league will be restricted from spending more than $300K in next year’s July 2 market, with the Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Royals, and Blue Jays joining the five teams that are set to serve the second year of their bans. (Toronto will only face one season of limitations, as their spending stands.) Badler also explains how all the bonus pool deals were put to use by the teams making them.
  • In the same piece, Badler takes a stab at predicting which clubs are planning to blow their budgets next year. He says that the Braves “seem determined” to make a big splash, while the industry chatter is that they could be joined by the Nationals, Rangers, Twins, and Padres.
  • MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez looks at the challenges to Cuban baseball posed by changing diplomatic tides. The stream of ballplayers heading for major league organizations has obviously hurt Cuba’s domestic league and national team, as Sanchez explains.
  • If you’re still confused by the way the international market works, check out this solid primer from Jonah Keri of Grantland. He uses a Q&A format to help simplify the often baffling series of rules, strategies, and factors weighing on this segment of the baseball transactional world.

Central Notes: Bruce, Benoit, Tigers, Cardinals

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Reds outfielder Jay Bruce is as “as good a bet as anyone” on the team to be dealt, team sources tell Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. That is rather a notable viewpoint given the club’s nice collection of even shorter-term assets. Bruce, 28, is controllable for three more years (the last via option), though Rosenthal adds that he rebuffed two offers of a second extension last year. It’s hard to gauge Bruce’s trade value given his rough 2014 and slow start to this season, but he’s bounced back nicely of late. Bruce is neither old nor expensive, offers an established power bat, and has at times graded rather well on defense and on the basepaths.

  • We’ve heard suggestions that the Twins could be looking at bullpen upgrades, and Rosenthal confirms that is Minnesota’s focus. One player the team could pursue is Padres righty Joaquin Benoit, per the report. The righty has been a consistent producer for some time now, and can be controlled for 2016 through a team option.
  • The Tigers should look to take out two needs with one move, argues Chris Iott of MLive.com. Dealing for a starter while shifting Alfredo Simon to the pen would upgrade both sides of the staff, suggests Iott.
  • While the Cardinals still have some padding, their NL Central lead is beginning to dwindle. Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch argues that St. Louis is in need of a move or two to capitalize on its nice first half. Miklasz says it’s time to add some punch to the lineup, noting that first base is the obvious area for an acquisition with Matt Adams out.
  • Miklasz does mention the possibility of shifting well-regarded outfield prospect Stephen Piscotty to first, and indeed colleague Derrick Goold indicates on Twitter that Piscotty could soon get a shot in the big leagues. The 24-year-old was nearly called up on Tuesday, and will now spend time at first at Triple-A to get ready for just that possibility. In his second run through Memphis this year, Piscotty owns a .270/.362/.471 slash with 10 home runs over 340 plate appearances. He has walked 41 times while making just 52 outs via strikeout.

Padres Preparing For Active, Creative Deadline

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The Padres are prepared to be active at the deadline, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. While the team is holding out hope that it will make sense to add pieces, its fall in the standings seems to make a cashing in of expiring assets more likely.

Regardless of record, says Lin, San Diego is not only prepared to function as a seller, but also as a buyer of MLB assets at the deadline. Presumably, that means that the club may look to acquire more controllable players in exchange for current roster members who are nearing free agency (Justin Upton, Will Venable, and Ian Kennedy, most immediately).

Indeed, there is little indication in the report that the Padres are interested in blowing up their roster to re-plant the farm system. Lin adds, instead, that the club will look to be active next year in free agency, possibly even increasing its overall payroll once again.

GM A.J. Preller indicated that he is once again preparing to be flexible and creative as he gathers information for the deadline. “We’ve got a lot of our scouting group on the road, seeing players we could add to the mix,” said Preller. “Then we’re also considering situations where we kind of change the look of the club a little bit. … The biggest thing we preach to our scouts is to just be prepared for all different scenarios.”

While the club obviously hoped for a better spot in the standings at this stage of the year, that doesn’t mean that Preller’s bold offseason has left him exposed with ownership. President and CEO Mike Dee made clear that he is pleased with the young executive thus far and is not afraid of more roster turnover. “This was a franchise that was stuck in neutral for the last 10 years,” said Dee, “so I give A.J. a lot of credit for rolling to the dice to see if we could add to this year’s team to compete, to compete with this group, and I think we still may. If we don’t, then we’ll reassess and reshuffle the deck and see if we can find a different chemistry, a different combination, that can improve the roster.”

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