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Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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After one of the most frenetic offseasons in recent history, the Padres entered the 2015 season with elevated expectations and a wildly different roster than the one inherited by first-year GM A.J. Preller. Unfortunately for the team, Preller’s high-profile acquisitions didn’t yield a postseason run or even a winning record.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Matt Kemp, OF: $72MM through 2019 (Dodgers also owe Kemp $14MM through 2019)
  • James Shields, RHP: $65MM through 2018 (including buyout of 2019 option; Shields can opt out after 2016)
  • Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B/SS: $33MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 option)
  • Melvin Upton, OF: $31.9MM through 2017
  • Craig Kimbrel, RHP: $25MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 option)
  • Alexi Amarista, 2B/SS/3B/OF: $1.3MM through 2016

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR)

Free Agents

Contract Options

  • Joaquin Benoit, RHP: $8MM club option with $1.5MM buyout
  • Clint Barmes, SS: $2MM club option with $200K buyout
  • Cory Luebke, LHP: $7.5MM club option with $1.75MM buyout

The Padres have crossed off the first item on their to-do list, and it probably shouldn’t come as a surprise that it was an out-of-the-box move. San Diego has tabbed 38-year-old Diamondbacks third base coach Andy Green as their new manager. While he comes with some notable minor league experience, this will be Green’s first taste of manging in the Majors.

As far as the contractual options facing the Padres, Cory Luebke’s is an easy call to decline, as the lefty hasn’t thrown a pitch since 2012 due to a pair of Tommy John surgeries. Clint Barmes’ option is cheap, but the Padres probably consider him redundant with Alexi Amarista projected to have a bench spot. Joaquin Benoit’s option is the toughest call. Metrics like FIP call for big regression, but he’s been able to routinely outperform them by sustaining abnormal BABIP marks and strand rates. While his walk and strikeout rates have each gone in the wrong direction, his velocity and swinging strike rate look good. This boils down to a one-year, $6.5MM decision on Benoit (he has a $1.5MM buyout). That seems reasonable, and even if the Padres don’t want him at that price, they could trade him. Picking up the option and paying $1.5MM to improve the return in a trade is a better outcome than simply buying him out.

Perhaps the biggest roadblock that option presents is that it would bring the 2016 payroll higher than their Opening Day mark from 2015, and there’s quite a bit of work to do around the diamond. An elevated payroll was always the expectation, as they received $18MM in 2015 salary relief in the Matt Kemp trade and also backloaded James Shields’ contract, but the baseball ops staff probably hoped there’d be less needs around the roster. Instead, they’ve already committed $71.9MM to the 2016 payroll, plus a projected $24.4MM for Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Yonder Alonso, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks in arbitration, and then the potential Benoit option and league-minimum salaries needed to fill out the roster.

That crowded payroll is one reason that the Padres were said to be open to moving some of their more established contributors at the non-waiver trade deadline, though that never came to fruition. Many of those talks will be revisited this winter. In an odd way, the Padres’ 2015-16 offseason will be defined perhaps more so by who they subtract from the organization than by who they add. It’s unclear how much flexibility they’ll have for roster additions without eliminating some 2016 payroll concerns.

Shields, Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton represent the three largest salaries that San Diego could shop, but nearly every position on the diamond and every slot in the rotation could be subject to trade talks. That sets up a fascinating offseason but also makes the already-difficult task of attempting to outline a team’s winter nearly impossible.

Shields is a particularly tough sell, as he was more good than great in his first first year with Padres. Though his strikeout rate soared, so too did his homer-to-flyball rate, resulting in an elevated ERA and FIP. If another club is convinced the HR/FB spike is a fluke, Shields is more appealing, but $21MM annually is steep. He isn’t the quintessential “albatross” contract — he’s still a useful starter — but it’s fair to say he qualifies as the type of player that’s often moved in swaps of “bad” contracts.

One oft-floated suggestion was a swap of Pablo Sandoval with the Red Sox, though I don’t see the merit in that for San Diego unless Boston sweetens the deal with young talent. Sandoval is owed more money and was one of the game’s worst all-around performers in 2015. The Padres needn’t be that desperate to move Shields, who was useful in 2015.

Upton — Melvin, that is — possesses an undesirable contract of his own, although the older of the two Uptons did quietly enjoy a bounceback year in 2015. He didn’t reach his peak Tampa Bay production levels, but Upton slashed .259/.327/.429 and made solid contributions on the basepaths and defense. The $31.9MM he’s owed lines up reasonably well with the money remaining on the contracts of Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez and Matt Garza, though I’m not sure any of those pitchers’ teams would benefit from making such a deal. More realistic is that Upton will remain under contract as an overpriced fourth outfielder/platoon partner for defensive standout Travis Jankowski, which appears to be at least somewhat of a consideration.

The other significant salary the Padres could try to move is that of Kimbrel, but he, unlike Shields and Upton, would be in high demand. The Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, Nationals and Cubs all stand out as plausible trade partners, and each of those clubs possesses plenty of young talent. If he’s to trade Kimbrel, Preller would have to decide if the goal is to add Major League talent to help the 2016 club or package Kimbrel with a less desirable contract (i.e. Shields, Upton) to clear salary. Trading him for prospects doesn’t align with the Padres’ recent tactics.

If the Padres are able to free up some payroll, shortstop will be their biggest priority. Ian Desmond tops the free agent market, but despite a down season, he strikes me as likely to command, at minimum, a four-year deal (five is also possible). He’s already been connected to the Padres, but an expensive free-agent miss wouldn’t look good for the front office coming off a disappointing 2015 season, and the Friars have multiple needs. If Preller is again to turn to the trade market, a highly speculative list of partners includes the Cubs (Javier Baez, Starlin Castro), Mariners (Ketel Marte, Brad Miller, Chris Taylor), Astros (Jed Lowrie), Rays (Nick Franklin), Red Sox (Deven Marrero) and possibly Twins (Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez, Jorge Polanco).

There are more in-house options, at least, in the rest of the infield. Jedd Gyorko filled in at short late in the 2015 season, but he shouldn’t be asked to play there again for defensive reasons. Gyorko can handle both second base and third base, as can the younger Cory Spangenberg. The former is a righty, the latter swings from the left side, and the club also has the switch-hitting Yangervis Solarte (and disappointing Will Middlebrooks) available at the hot corner. Given the needs elsewhere, it’s possible to imagine Preller relying on this group again in 2016, though a free agent target wouldn’t be out of the question. Ben Zobrist, as we at MLBTR find ourselves saying frequently in these Offseason Outlooks, certainly makes some sense given his versatility, though his age makes him particularly risky for San Diego, given the current uncertainty permeating their roster.

The Padres quickly abandoned the idea of Wil Myers in center field and moved him to first base, but that now presents its own issues. With both Myers and Yonder Alonso figuring to be healthy in 2016, the Padres have two players for that first base spot. The best option for Myers is probably to shift to left field in place of the departing Justin Upton. That creates somewhat of a logjam, though, as top prospect Hunter Renfroe is a corner outfielder, as is former Top 100 prospect Rymer Liriano. Both are nearly MLB-ready, though Preller hasn’t shown an aversion to trading prospects.

Alonso could be a desirable trade piece for many teams — Milwaukee, Baltimore (if Chris Davis leaves), Pittsburgh, to name a few — but he’s also one of the precious few lefty bats the Padres have. And while he doesn’t hit for power, his overall offensive contributions this year were positive. There’s a case to be made that San Diego should move Alonso, go for broke, and make a run at Davis to inject some power into the lineup, but that’s a long shot.

If Alonso is moved, a left-field decision arises: trust Renfroe/Liriano or seek an outside addition. Colby Rasmus would give the Padres a much-needed left-handed bat, as would Gerardo Parra. If Preller and L.A. counterpart Andrew Friedman want to connect for another significant swap, the Dodgers have Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier, who could each be moved for a bad contract. The player the Padres received from the Dodgers last winter, Matt Kemp, seems like he’ll definitively be stationed in right field, so there appears to be at least one certain spot in the lineup.

Center field, again, comes with question marks. Jankowski is a gifted defender but doesn’t project to hit much. He could be a fine fourth outfielder, but he’s probably miscast as a starter. Jankowski and Upton could platoon here, but free agents Dexter Fowler and Denard Span or a trade candidate like Jackie Bradley would help to balance out the lineup and provide better offense. Span, in particular, is an intriguing buy-low candidate, as his injury could suppress his value and make him a relative bargain. Although, that also enhances the risk of signing him. If handedness isn’t a concern, Marcell Ozuna makes sense.

Like nearly every other position on the diamond, the Padres have some trade options behind the plate. Derek Norris is slated to make $3.4MM, so moving him could free up a bit of money, and Austin Hedges represents an MLB-ready replacement. However, the team could flip the defensively gifted and well-regarded Hedges in a trade to fill another hole. Norris had his worst season at the plate in 2015, so they could be selling low, though on the other hand his throwing improved quite a bit. On a thin catching market, he’d draw interest, and Hedges is superior defensively.

The rotation offers a bit more certainty, but not much. Shields, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner form a solid 1-2-3 atop the rotation, and young righty Colin Rea is a candidate for the back of the starting unit along with righty Odrisamer Despaigne and lefty Robbie Erlin. Ian Kennedy is set to depart as a free agent and should net the team a compensatory draft pick — I see little reason for him to accept a qualifying offer, as his durability and steady results should net him a more lucrative multi-year deal — though the team could look to retain him.

However, as previously mentioned, Shields is a definite trade candidate this winter, and the Padres fielded offers on both Ross and Cashner prior to the trade deadline. Cashner is only controlled through 2016, so it makes sense that he, in particular, could resurface in trade talks. The Cubs and Red Sox each showed interest in Ross, and the righty is the type of borderline-dominant arm that either team could pursue to bolster its rotation for at least two years, if not more via an extension. Names like Kyle Hendricks or Henry Owens could be part of a Ross trade (though not necessarily headliners), thereby giving San Diego an immediate, albeit lesser replacement. Cashner wouldn’t fetch as large of a haul, but he could bring back a big-league piece to help in a different area.

The Padres need to add at least one arm to the mix, possibly two if they move one of the current three rotation locks and don’t receive an immediate replacement in return. A lefty would help give opponents a bit of a different look, though adding quality innings should be an emphasis over pitcher handedness. One inexpensive possibility would be to try Brandon Maurer in the rotation again. The former Mariners prospect has blossomed into an excellent setup man but still deployed a three-pitch mix out of the ’pen in 2015. Obviously, an innings limit would have to be a consideration.

Moving Maurer to the rotation could create a larger hole in the bullpen, where the Padres are also set to lose the underrated Shawn Kelley and could also non-tender Rzepczynski. Kevin Quackenbush and Nick Vincent could rejoin Benoit and Kimbrel (if neither is traded). Lefty Frank Garces battled his control in both the Majors and minors after a dominant Double-A campaign in 2014, so at least one cheap lefty relief option would be a nice pickup.

No first-year GM has ever made a splash as immediate and dramatic as Preller in 2014-15. Because no one could have reasonably predicted that level of activity, the Padres dominated headlines for much of the offseason, right up until their acquisition of Kimbrel on the eve of Opening Day. San Diego again mystified the baseball world by taking the opposite course of action this summer, standing pat despite the fact that they weren’t within reasonable striking distance of a postseason berth. The expectation here is that the Padres will again be in for an exceptionally active offseason, so much so that their course of action could play a key role in a number of other clubs’ winter gameplans as well.

Padres Name Andy Green Manager

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5:42pm: The Padres have announced the hiring, making it official. It appears that Green has received a three-year deal, MLB.com’s Corey Brock tweets.

11:53am: Although the Padres were said to be down to Ron Gardenhire and Rick Sofield in their search for a new manager, it appears they’ve made a last-minute audible, as Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller is now reporting that Diamondbacks third base coach Andy Green will be San Diego’s new skipper (Twitter link). The Padres have issued a press release to inform the media that they’ll formally announce a new manager at 3pm PT. (San Diego did not name Green in the release). Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets that Gardenhire was the runner-up to Green, who was offered the position late last night.

Andy Green

The 38-year-old Green will instantly become one of the youngest managers in baseball (though Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash is still younger). That’s not to say, however, that he comes without managerial experience. To the contrary, Green has four seasons of minor league managerial experience in spite of his young age. From 2011-14, he managed in the D-Backs’ minor league system, including a pair of postseason berths for the Double-A Mobile Bay Bears in 2013-14. Green was named Southern League Manager of the Year in each of those two seasons.

Green played parts of four seasons in the Major Leagues, with his fourth and final appearance coming in 2009 when he saw action in just four games with the Mets. A second baseman/third baseman by trade, Green appeared in 140 big league games and received 265 plate appearances, though he batted just .200/.282/.265 in that short time. The former 24th-round pick was a strong minor league hitter in parts of 10 seasons (.295/.375/.444) and also had a bit of experience in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball as well.

In addition to Green, Gardenhire and Sofield, the Padres are known to have interviewed D-Backs Triple-A manager Phil Nevin, former Major Leaguer and veteran winter ball manager Alex Cora, Dodgers bench coach Tim Wallach, former big league pitcher Tom Gordon, former Angels assistant GM Scott Servais (who was instead hired to become the new manager of the Mariners) and current Padres hitting coach Mark Kotsay.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Gardenhire, Sofield Are Finalists In Padres’ Managerial Search

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OCT. 29: Scott Miller of Bleacher Report tweets that Sofield is now emerging as the favorite in the Padres’ search.

OCT. 28: Former Twins manager Ron Gardenhire and current Pirates third base coach Rick Sofield are the two finalists for the Padres’ managerial vacancy, reports Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Gardenhire is the current favorite, Lin hears, though general manager A.J. Preller hasn’t made a final decision yet. (The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review’s Rob Biertempfel had previously reported that Sofield “appeared to be” a finalist.) An official announcement could come either on Thursday or Monday — both of which are travel days for the two remaining World Series teams. (Major League Baseball strongly discourages clubs from announcing significant news on the days that postseason games are played.)

Gardenhire sat out the 2015 season but reportedly wants to get back into the managerial world. He has also interviewed with the Nationals, though he’s not one of the reported finalists there. Gardenhire has extensive postseason experience from his time with the Twins, having led the club to six AL Central Division titles in 13 seasons and also bringing the team to a Game 163 tiebreaker that was lost to the White Sox in 2008. However, as Lin notes, Gardenhire has a disappointing 6-21 record in the playoffs, having only captured one series victory (against the A’s in 2002).

Sofield, on the other hand, has never managed in the Majors, though he does have six seasons of minor league managerial experience. He’s served on manager Clint Hurdle’s coaching staff in each of the past three seasons for the team’s trips to the postseason. Lin notes that Sofield is known for an “energetic” style.

Whoever is hired will have the ability to bring in his own coaching staff, and Lin writes that pitching coach Darren Balsley and bench coach Dave Roberts would be candidates to join Black were he able to land the managerial gig with the Nationals. Hitting coach Mark Kotsay is a candidate to be retained, he adds.

D-Backs Triple-A manager Phil Nevin also received a second interview in San Diego but no longer appears to be in the running. Also interviewed by the Padres were former big leaguers Alex Cora and Tom Gordon, D-Backs third base coach Andy Green, newly minted Mariners skipper Scott Servais (still an assistant GM with the Angels at the time) and Kotsay. With the exception of Gardenhire and Sofield, each of the interviewees had fairly recent Major League experience as a player. (Both Gardenhire and Sofield played in the Majors as well, though Sofield’s career ended in 1981 and Gardenhire’s ended in 1985.)

List Of 2016 Super Two Qualifiers

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Presented below is the list of players who have qualified for Super Two status for arbitration purposes this year. (Service time in parentheses.) As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently tweeted, the service time cutoff is 2.130. You can find arbitration salary projections for these players right here.

Click here to read more about how the Super Two concept works. Note that, as the link shows, the originally projected service time cutoff moved down as things played out over the course of the season. That brought some notable names into early arbitration qualification — namely, Calhoun and Rendon — which could have a big impact on their earning power in potential extension scenarios.

It’s also important to bear in mind that several of the players listed above have already agreed to long-term extensions: Gyorko, Lagares, and Archer. Notably, the size of the guarantee provided by Archer’s contract is dependent upon his Super Two status. By reaching it (as had been expected), he keeps a $25.5MM overall guarantee. That total would have been reduced to $20MM otherwise.

That contract structure reflects the importance of reaching Super Two status. Doing so not only bumps a player’s salary a year early, but sets a higher floor for future paydays.

Latest On Padres’ Managerial Search

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Pat Murphy won’t return as the Padres’ manager next season, meaning that San Diego is one of four possible destinations for managerial hopefuls (along with Los Angeles, D.C. and Miami). GM A.J. Preller has promised a wide-ranging search. While we haven’t heard much yet about possible candidates, information is starting to trickle out. Here’s the latest:

  • Preller says that the club is moving into the second round of its search, as MLB.com’s Corey Brock reports. “I feel good about the number of guys we had in the initial stage, and now we’ll be able to get that down to a smaller group,” Preller said. “We’re looking to push things forward.” As Brock writes, there could be some new names under consideration, as Preller indicated that the Pads have spoken with some candidates who “were involved in the postseason.”
  • Pirates third base coach Rick Sofield has had a second interview and “appears to be a finalist,” Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports on Twitter.
  • Ron Gardenhire recently had a second interview with the team, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reports.  It isn’t known which (if any) other candidates have also been interviewed a second time, though this return meeting would seem to hint that Gardenhire is a strong contender.

Earlier Updates

  • San Diego bench coach Dave Roberts has not interviewed for the Padres’ managerial gig, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports, though he was a finalist for the Mariners’ job. The club has interviewed hitting coach Mark Kotsay, though he’s viewed as a “long shot.”
  • The Friars will interview long-time big leaguers Alex Cora and Phil Nevin, according to reports. That pair has been tied in at least some manner to every other team with a current opening, though it is worth noting that Nevin spent the most productive portion of his playing career in San Diego.
  • Also set for an interview with San Diego is former Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. Gardenhire obviously comes into the offseason managerial search with plenty of experience, having piloted Minnesota for 13 years. It appears that the Padres are, as expected, looking at candidates with a variety of resumes.
  • Pirates third base coach Rick Sofield is also interviewing for the Padres’ opening, reports Peter Gammons (via Twitter). Sofield has more than a decade of head coaching experience at the college level and also has served as a minor league manager in the Pirates and Expos systems in addition to his time as a third base coach and first base coach in the Majors. A first-round pick of the Twins in 1975, Sofield saw big league action in parts of three seasons and also had a 10-year minor league career.
  • It has previously been reported that San Diego has interest in Diamondbacks third base coach Andy Green. The 38-year-old, a four-year MLB veteran infielder in his playing days, managed in the minors for several seasons before joining Arizona’s big league staff.

AL West Notes: Mariners Coaches, Ibanez, Angels, Astros

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The Mariners announced today that Angels special assistant Tim Bogar has been hired as the bench coach to serve under newly minted manager Scott Servais (as Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times reported would happen last week). Seattle also announced that Mel Stottlemyre Jr. has been named the club’s new pitching coach. Edgar Martinez will return as the team’s hitting coach, and Chris Woodward will once again handle first base coach duties in Seattle. That leaves openings at third base coach and bullpen coach, and Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune tweets that two names under consideration are Padres bench coach Dave Roberts and former big league catcher Dan Wilson, who has been Seattle’s minor league catching coordinator for the past three seasons.

A bit more from the AL West…

  • Dutton also tweets that the Mariners have spoken to Raul Ibanez about either a front office role or a position on the coaching staff. Ibanez, of course, played for the Mariners from 1996-2000 and then again from 2004-08 before returning for one final stint in 2013. He’s also familiar with GM Jerry Dipoto, though, as Dipoto signed Ibanez to a low-risk one-year deal for the 2014 season. That move didn’t work out, however, as Ibanez was unable to recreate the production he showed in his final season with the Mariners when he blasted 29 homers as a 41-year-old.
  • Angels GM Billy Eppler acknowledged that the hires of Servais, Bogar and Matt Klentak, who was announced as the new Phillies GM this morning, has taken a toll on the front office, writes MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez. “That’s no doubt going to be felt throughout a number of departments,” said Eppler. Per Gonzalez, Eppler is keeping an open mind and talking to a wide variety of candidates for the club’s coaching staff and front office. Among those who are possibilities to fill the role of assistant GM to Eppler are Hal Morris and Kevin Reese. Morris is presently the Angels’ director of pro scouting, while Reese holds that same title with Eppler’s former organization, the Yankees.
  • Within his column, Gonzalez notes that Rangers pitching coach is soliciting offers from other clubs and could be a candidate to fill the Angels’ vacancy at that post. As was reported recently, Maddux’s contract expires at the end of this month. He’s been invited back by Texas but appears to be testing the waters to see what sort of interest other clubs may have.
  • The Astros’ payroll will likely increase in 2016, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, though that will be in large part due to arbitration raises for Dallas Keuchel, Jason Castro, Evan Gattis and Chris Carter. The Astros will try to add another starting pitcher to what was a top-heavy rotation in 2015, he adds. McTaggart also notes that Carter’s tremendous late-season surge complicates the team’s decision on whether not he should be tendered a contract, though it may also have helped to create a trade market for Carter’s services.

Free Agent Profile: Justin Upton

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Justin Upton, baseball’s first overall draft pick a decade ago, reaches free agency at age 28 with a solid track record of hitting for power.

Strengths/Pros

Justin UptonUpton’s pedigree is still an important selling point, because it implies he’s yet to reach his ceiling.  According to Baseball America, Upton was on scouts’ radars when he was 14 years old.  After he was drafted out of high school by the Diamondbacks in ’05, BA wrote that he had “unbelievable tools” and felt that the term “five-tool prospect” sold him short.  Upton was the consensus pick for first overall, after older brother B.J. (now known as Melvin) went second overall to the Rays in 2002.  Justin was seen as a patient, powerful hitter, with great bat speed, plus power potential, big-time speed, and a cannon for an arm.

Ten years later, Upton has 190 home runs under his belt through age 27.  Of the 30 non-active players who accomplished that feat, 17 are in the Hall of Fame.  Upton has 82 home runs over the last three seasons, 17th in baseball.  Among those with 1500 plate appearances in that time, Upton ranks 22nd in slugging and 18th in ISO.  Power is Upton’s main calling card, and at age 28, there may be more to come.  Upton is also an asset on the basepaths, as his baserunning runs above average marks can attest.

I wouldn’t call Upton one of the best players in baseball, but he is one of the game’s better outfielders.  Over the last three years, his 10.6 wins above replacement ranks 18th among outfielders.  He was an All-Star in 2009, ’11, and ’15, finishing fourth in the MVP voting in ’11.  Upton has been durable, averaging 152 games played over the last five seasons.

As we’ve mentioned, Upton will play most of next season at age 28.  The only other top 30 free agent position players who will play next year in their 20s are Jason Heyward and Colby Rasmus.  Upton’s age leaves room for upside and should result in his team getting more prime years.

Weaknesses/Cons

Let’s be honest: Upton hasn’t lived up to the mammoth expectations placed on him.  He only reached 30 home runs once in his eight seasons, and that was four years ago.  Power may be Upton’s strength, but fellow free agent Chris Davis has shown much more.  Upton’s ability to get on base is nothing special, and one can name at least 20 hitters who have been better overall over the last three years.  You can find at least 40 hitters who were better this year.  Upside is nice, but if this is all Upton is, he’s a good player and not a great one.

Strikeouts are part of Upton’s game.  He has whiffed in 25.8% of his plate appearances since 2013; only seven qualified hitters struck out more often.  Oddly enough, all of them are either free agents or non-tender candidates.

Upton’s left field defense grades out as roughly average.  Advanced metrics show he was a touch above average this year, and a touch below last year.  I don’t consider it a strength or a weakness, but I felt his defense warranted mention.

Upton is expected to receive and turn down a qualifying offer from the Padres, so signing him will require draft pick forfeiture.  This is not the case for one of his main market competitors, Yoenis Cespedes.

Personal

Upton was born in Norfolk, Virginia and resides in Scottsdale, Arizona with his wife.  Justin grew up in a baseball family.  His father Manny scouted for the Royals and White Sox, and older brother Melvin was drafted second overall in ’02.  Justin battled an immaturity label early in his career, as outlined in this 2012 ESPN article by Robert Sanchez.  It should be noted that he made his MLB debut at age 19.  Upton signed a six-year, $51.25MM extension with the Diamondbacks in March 2010, but was traded to the Braves in January 2013.  He spent 2013 and ’14 roaming the outfield alongside his brother Melvin, who had signed with Atlanta a few months prior.  Then Justin was traded to the Padres in December 2014, and Melvin rejoined him after a separate deal in April.

Market

Upton should have plenty of suitors this winter, though he does not seem likely to re-sign with the Padres.  The Orioles don’t have much at the outfield corners, and could have money to spend if they lose Chris Davis.  The Yankees could be a suitor if they trade Brett Gardner.  The Rangers could be a potential match if they have an appetite for another large contract.  The White Sox have a need in the outfield, but have never spent even $70MM on a player.  The Mariners could have a spot for Upton, but he rejected a trade to Seattle in 2013.  I wouldn’t rule them out, however, in the case Upton has decided the Mariners are closer to contention now than they were two years ago.  I’ve heard plenty of speculation that the Giants make a good fit for Upton, though it’s possible they’ll put their resources toward pitching.

Nationals GM Mike Rizzo was the scouting director when the Diamondbacks drafted Upton first overall, but a reunion would require moving Jayson Werth to right field and Bryce Harper to center.   It’s unclear whether they’d be interested in doing so.  The Dodgers have almost $40MM tied up in Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier next year.  Trading one of them and signing Upton (not necessarily in that order) is plausible.

The Tigers could have a spot for Upton, but they seem likely to focus on starting pitching.  Same goes for the Red Sox, who would also have to move an outfielder like Jackie Bradley to make room.  The Angels, Astros, and Blue Jays could seek a left field upgrade this winter, but may prefer a left-handed hitter.  The Jays, as well as the Indians, were on Upton’s four-team no-trade list last winter.  The Indians would likely face budget restraints with Upton, and may not want to bring him on as a right fielder anyway.

The Royals could have an opening in left field if Alex Gordon departs, but they’ve never committed more than $55MM to a player.  The Cardinals have plenty of in-house replacements if Jason Heyward departs.  The Mets are a tough match even if Cespedes leaves, with Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto at the corners.  The Cubs also have more of a need at center field.  The Phillies have little in place at the outfield corners and could afford Upton, but it would be odd for a rebuilding club and a tough sell for the player.

Expected Contract

Given his age, an opt-out clause should be a consideration for Upton.  Agent Larry Reynolds would do well to get his client another crack at free agency at age 30 or 31, as no one would be surprised if Upton takes his game to another level and hits 40 home runs at some point.  If an opt-out clause is obtained by Reynolds, I’d expect the total dollars to be reduced as a concession.

Coming off an inferior season to Chris Davis and Yoenis Cespedes, I’d expect Upton to receive a slightly lower average annual value.  Plus, Upton’s age gives him a chance at a seventh year, which may also bring down the AAV.  Something in the $20-22MM range could work.  The end result might put all three players at a similar grand total.  I’m putting Upton down for a seven-year, $147MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches.  It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.

“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”

Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities.  Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
  • The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal.  Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked.  Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
  • Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.”  Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal.  Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto.  The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
  • One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM.  In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
  • Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards.  One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness.  At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
  • One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”  Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock.  The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
  • Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch.  The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period.  The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
  • At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill’s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real.  One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
  • Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters.  Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer.  The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.

Quick Hits: Cespedes, Cubs, Allison

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Mets GM Sandy Alderson traded for Yoenis Cespedes because he believed the club needed another hitter, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Alderson originally focused on Brewers outfielder Carlos Gomez and Reds outfielder Jay Bruce because they came with additional club control. However, the Gomez deal was nixed after the Mets reviewed his physical, and the Reds pulled Bruce off the trade block on July 31. Alderson preferred Justin Upton of the Padres, but they refused to back down from demands for pitcher Michael Fulmer, shortstop Amed Rosario, and others. While Alderson still preferred a higher OBP hitter, Cespedes had the best acquisition cost. Per Alderson, if the Mets didn’t acquire a top bat, “people will point to the fact that we were not all in.”

  • The Cubs will be a trendy pick to win the National League next season, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times. However, Theo Epstein and crew have a difficult road ahead of them. Within their own division, they’ll have to compete with the always successful Cardinals and recently excellent Pirates. The Mets formidable pitching staff will return next year, the Giants have a way of appearing every even year, and the Dodgers spend the most money in baseball. Unexpected opponents could also jump to the forefront. As Epstein admits, “We have to put ourselves in a position where we have a chance to be great. So we can win the division and not have to go through the coin flip of being in the wild-card game. I’m not saying you can always get there. Some things are beyond your control.” To be great, the club probably needs to add an ace. A veteran to help stabilize the young lineup could also be useful.
  • The Mariners have promoted Tom Allison to head of both professional and amateur scouting, tweets John Manuel of Baseball America. Allison had previously served as Seattle’s head of pro scouting so the promotion is an expansion of duties. Per Manuel, Allison had a strong run as an amateur scout with the Diamondbacks from 2007 through 2010. He also worked with the Mets and Brewers in a scouting capacity from 1996 through 2006.

Managerial Notes: Gordon, Mattingly, Servais

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The Padres have interviewed former big-league reliever Tom Gordon for their open managerial position, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports. As Heyman notes, Gordon certainly would be an unusual candidate, since he has no managerial experience anywhere. He did, however, pitch 21 seasons in the big leagues. He is the father of Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon and top Twins shortstop prospect Nick Gordon. Here’s the rest of the latest on the Padres’ managerial search. And here are more notes on managers, all on the West divisions:

  • Don Mattingly’s separation from the Dodgers was amicable, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. The pressures of managing an expensive team with championship expectations weighted on Mattingly, as did whispers about whether he would be fired. When the two sides spoke on Monday, the Dodgers told him they were not interested in offering a long-term extension, which told him their commitment to him wasn’t strong. The new Dodgers front office would, evidently, prefer to hire its own manager, even though Mattingly was willing to work with the front office with its use of advanced metrics.
  • The Mariners are gambling that Scott Servais is the right hire for them despite his lack of managerial experience, John McGrath of the Tacoma News Tribune writes. As McGrath points out, gambles like this one are common nowadays: Mike Matheny of the Cardinals, Robin Ventura of the White Sox, Brad Ausmus of the Tigers, Walt Weiss of the Rockies, Craig Counsell of the Brewers and Kevin Cash of the Rays are, like Servais, all former players who lacked significant managerial experience before taking their current jobs.
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