Heath Bell’s Trade Value

4:59pm: Former Padres GM Kevin Towers told Jim Bowden of FOX Sports that he would ask for Aaron Hicks, Ben Revere or Angel Morales from the Twins in return for Bell if he were still running the Padres (Twitter link). Baseball America ranked the three outfielders first, fifth and eighth among Twins prospects heading into the season.

FRIDAY, 1:34pm: Whether it happens now or in July, the Padres are likely to entertain trade offers for their All-Star closer. Heath Bell has value and the Padres don't appear ready to contend for a playoff spot so GM Jed Hoyer will presumably consider trading the right-hander. The Twins are eyeing Bell, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today and more teams will want relievers by late July. 

Bell compares favorably to the group of relievers that signed the biggest free agent contracts this offseason. He had a lower walk rate (3.1 BB/9) and more saves (42) than Jose Valverde, Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney and Mike Gonzalez and posted a higher strikeout rate than everyone except Gonzalez (Bell: 10.2 K/9, Gonzalez: 10.9 K/9).

Valverde, Lyon, Rodney and Gonzalez all signed multi-year deals worth $11MM or more, but Bell makes just $4MM this year. Next year, he's in line for a raise via arbitration if, as expected, his club tenders him a deal. Bell's ability and salary make him a valuable commodity on the trade market, but it's not clear what that translates into for the Padres.

When the Orioles traded George Sherrill last summer, they were working with a similar player. Sherrill was making less ($2.75MM) and the Dodgers acquired him midseason, but he was nonetheless effective, cheap and controllable through 2011, like Bell is now.

The Orioles acquired Josh Bell – now ranked by Baseball America as the organization's number two prospect – in the Sherrill trade. The third base prospect has "above-average power and a good approach" and projects to be Baltimore's third baseman before long, according to BA. Given their closer's contract status and ability, the Padres have every reason to ask for a top prospect in any trade.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Jays, Bell, Davis, Dunn

On this date in 2002, the Yankees Entertainment and Sports Network launched. Although the regional network barely broke even that year, YES has gone on to generate millions in revenue, much of which goes right into the Yankees' pockets. As recently as 2008, there was talk that the network was worth more than the team itself.

After you wrap your head around that, here are some links to check out from around the baseball blogosphere…

If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.

Twins Eyeing Heath Bell

The Twins are scouting Heath Bell extensively for a possible trade, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Closer Joe Nathan may have to undergo Tommy John surgery, so the Twins are looking at possible replacements, including Bell and Blue Jays reliever Jason Frasor.

The Twins won't necessarily have to make a trade at all, though. Nathan will throw Saturday, Sunday or Monday and the Twins will have a clearer sense of his ability to pitch with a torn ulnar collateral ligament after his bullpen session.

Bell led the National League with 42 saves last year. He posted 10.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 69.2 innings. The 32-year-old righty makes $4MM this year and won't be a free agent until after 2011.

Adrian Gonzalez Would Accept Deferred Money

According to a report by Dan Hayes of the North County Times, Adrian Gonzalez would accept deferred money in a contract offer from the Padres, as long as the offer was at market value.

However, that is a confusing bit of information. Market value is likely starting with Mark Teixeira and his eight-year, $180MM contract. So would San Diego merely have to reach this number, but some could be deferred? Or would the Padres need to exceed this to make up for the deferred money?

More to the point, it is far from clear that San Diego can afford Teixeira-type money, even if the money is deferred. But it is worth remembering, especially if talks start to heat up, the Padres might have a little extra cushion there.

Olney On Howard, Pujols, Adrian, Chris Young

The latest from ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider required)…

  • Olney explains why the Phillies' internal discussions about offering Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols were accurate and newsworthy: "When you have confirmed information that the Phillies have discussed internally an avenue through which how they might pursue the best player in baseball — and you know exactly who said what to whom, and how sturdy the intent was — that is news."  Olney's information should be trusted despite the Phillies' denials, but keep in mind that this was simply one club's internal discussion.
  • Certain talent evaluators believe Adrian Gonzalez is so valuable given his contract that the Padres may not find a comparable return.  Some of Olney's sources believe the Padres should keep Gonzalez into 2011.
  • Olney's hearing Chris Young's velocity is back in its customary 87-88 mph range.  As the best-paid Padre and an impending free agent, Young has to be considered a midseason trade candidate.  He is earning $6.25MM this year with an $8.5MM club option for '11.

Odds & Ends: Nats, Bell, Mahay, Smoltz

Sunday night linkage..

  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wonders if money might be a factor in the Nationals' starting shortstop battle.  Ian Desmond is making a compelling case for the starting job but the club might be unwilling to put Cristian Guzman and his $8MM contract on the bench.
  • Padres closer Heath Bell told Tom Krasovic of AOL Fanhouse that he would be agreeable to signing an extension that is budget-friendly for the Padres.  San Diego avoided arbitration with Bell in January when they agreed to a one-year, $4MM pact.
  • It appears that reliever Ron Mahay won't be signing with the Mets, writes Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News.  A source tells Rubin that there's no way Mahay would accept a minor league deal.  Meanwhile, a separate source says that the Mets won't offer a major league contract.
  • In his latest mailbag, a reader suggests to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro that the Marlins should sign John Smoltz.  Frisaro says that the Marlins have no interest in the 42-year-old as the 26-year-old Josh Johnson is a good influence on the team's young pitchers.

Rosenthal On Beckett, Lee, Gardner

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports examines the Red Sox' negotiations with Josh Beckett and the Yankees' center field decision in a pair of new columns. Let's check out some noteworthy points:

  • Rosenthal points to the lack of top starting pitching talent available in the next two or three free agent classes, suggesting that this could make signing Beckett more important for the Red Sox.
  • Although the Sox generally don't like committing long-term contracts to pitchers, Rosenthal opines that keeping Beckett might be less risky than losing him, due to the lack of viable replacements.
  • The other top starting pitcher whose contract expires this season is Cliff Lee, who "most baseball people agree" will go to the highest bidder. That may end up being the Yankees, who could use Lee to replace Javier Vazquez.
  • At least four teams (the Royals, Reds, Padres, and White Sox) attempted to acquire Brett Gardner this winter, hoping to start him in center field.

Discussion: Are The Padres Tipping Their Hand?

It's no secret that the Padres are thinking about moving Adrian Gonzalez in the near future.   Gonzalez, or, the "Human Trade Rumor" as Scott Miller of CBSSports.com refers to him, is owed just $4.75MM in 2010 and $5.5MM on a club option for 2011.  Yet, it appears that the Padres have already given up on keeping him for the long-haul.

John Boggs, the agent for Gonzalez, told team CEO Jeff Moorad and GM Jed Hoyer that his client will seek a contract similar to the $180MM deal Mark Teixeira signed with the Yankees last offseason.  That course of action brought discussion to a halt.  

While the Padres appear to have up to a dozen suitors for Gonzalez's services, they may not be keeping their cards close to the chest.  In his aforementioned piece, Miller writes that Gonzalez – inarguably San Diego's biggest star – will not be one of the six players featured in promotional nights this summer.  Neither will closer Heath Bell, who has also been rumored to be on the trading block.

This comes just two months after Hoyer assured a reporter that the club was not looking to move the 27-year-old.  Bobbleheads and replica jerseys aside, one has to wonder if the Padres' transparency in recent weeks might hurt them in the long run.  Are the Padres tipping their hand or is it already obvious to everyone in baseball that the Friars have to consider moving their star first baseman?

Brian Giles Retires

Outfielder Brian Giles announced his retirement today, tweets Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. TimesThe Dodgers had signed Giles to a minor league deal on February 7th, and soon after he told MLB.com's Ken Gurnick it wouldn't take long to decide whether his knee could hold up physically.

Though he's not a household name, Giles finishes with an excellent .291/.400/.502 line in 7,835 career plate appearances for the Indians, Pirates, and Padres.  Giles' career OBP currently ranks 59th all-time.  Giles made two All-Star appearances and received MVP votes in five seasons.  He was involved in a blockbuster trade in August of '03, joining the Padres for Jason Bay, Oliver Perez, and Cory Stewart.  According to Baseball Reference, Giles earned about $81MM in his career.

Odds & Ends: Fielder, Wood, Stairs, Duncan

A wrap-up of items from Wednesday…

  • We've heard that the Brewers have begun to explore the possibility of extending Prince Fielder's contract, but ESPN's Keith Law thinks "it makes no sense for the Brewers to keep Fielder" given that the team doesn't look like a contender this season or next.  Law also describes Fielder as, "the type of player who doesn't age well."
  • Kerry Wood isn't bothered by trade rumors linking him to Minnesota to fill the Joe Nathan void, reports Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com.  Castrovince adds that it's "hard to imagine" the Twins acquiring Wood given the veteran closer's $10.5MM salary in 2010 (plus an $11MM option for 2011 that vests if Wood finishes 55 games this year).
  • Speaking of Wood, Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain Dealer argues that the Tribe shouldn't deal Wood to a division rival until the Indians know what kind of a team they have this season.  If they contend, then they could keep Wood for a pennant race.  If they don't contend, Wood will still have trade value at midseason.
  • Tyler Kepner of the New York Times talks to Matt Stairs, who is enjoying his role in the Padres camp as "the grandfather of the team."  Stairs said he won't go to the minors if he doesn't make San Diego's opening day roster, and he might just return to his job as a hitting coach for the University of Maine's baseball team.
  • MLB.com's Matthew Leach reports that Chris Duncan doesn't blame the Cardinals for dealing him to Boston last summer.
  • Anthony Ranaudo, thought by some to be the top pitcher available in June's Amateur Draft, may fall down the draft board after battling elbow problems, reports ESPN.com's Jason A. Churchill.
  • Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told MLB.com's Bill Ladson that despite Stephen Strasburg's strong outing on Tuesday, "it's not going to change my plans" about how Strasburg will be brought along.  Strasburg may well start the season in the minors, but ESPN's Buster Olney thinks it could be a brief stay: "You get the feeling that his time in the minors may be as short as it was for Tim Lincecum."  Lincecum, for the record, has made only 13 lifetime appearances in the minors and made just four minor league starts in 2007 before being called up to San Francisco.
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